Call was perfect.
Seahawks were the better team and had scored a TD on their last three drives. Rams, with only a 2 point lead, were about to punt from inside their 20. Seahawks would've gotten the ball around midfield with over two minutes to play and only needed 20 or so yards to kick a game winning field goal.
Fisher knew that if he punted, there was probably an 85% chance they lose. Genius call.
Of course, I'm a little biased because like many others I'm sure, I needed Rams to win outright to knock out some Survivor picks.
Seahawks were the better team and had scored a TD on their last three drives. Rams, with only a 2 point lead, were about to punt from inside their 20. Seahawks would've gotten the ball around midfield with over two minutes to play and only needed 20 or so yards to kick a game winning field goal.
Fisher knew that if he punted, there was probably an 85% chance they lose. Genius call.
Of course, I'm a little biased because like many others I'm sure, I needed Rams to win outright to knock out some Survivor picks.
NFL is all about doing things 'by the book' and not drawing attention to yourself. Advanced analysis shows that going for it on more 4th downs, more gadget plays and going for 2 more often actually are the right call, most NFL head coaches just don't want to get destroyed if a risky play goes wrong.
Obviously NOT 100%, time to adjust your math.
You ARE WINNING.. If you don't make that play you lose! You lose that game.
If you punt, they have to WIN the game.
It was moronic and not the right call. You're up by 2 and if you don't pick up those yards, you lose it's as simple as that.
Vegas would of had STL a heavy ML favorite to win that game if they punt....
how heavy? -150?
Courtesy of Grantland:
Then again, plugging the numbers into the Advanced NFL Analytics Win Probability Calculator, the Rams have a 49 percent chance of winning the game as they’re about to line up for the punt. Here’s how the win probability changes based on their decision, assuming a 40-yard net on the punt, the 18-yard gain on a successful fake, and an incomplete pass on a failed fake:
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Then again, plugging the numbers into the Advanced NFL Analytics Win Probability Calculator, the Rams have a 49 percent chance of winning the game as they’re about to line up for the punt. Here’s how the win probability changes based on their decision, assuming a 40-yard net on the punt, the 18-yard gain on a successful fake, and an incomplete pass on a failed fake:
| Decision | Win Expectancy | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Goes for It, Succeeds | 90% | +41% |
| Goes for It, Fails | 21% | -28% |
| Punts | 49% | 0% |
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Also courtesy of Grantland:
It was almost definitely one of the most shocking fake punts I’ve ever seen. It’s also somehow both a great idea and a really stupid idea at the same time, which doesn’t seem like it should make sense. Let me explain. The whole point of a fake punt, of course, is to pick up a first down in a situation when the other team doesn’t expect you to do anything but execute a typical punt. If that’s the logic behind a fake punt, what better time to do it than when the game’s on the line and the other team would never think you would even consider having the gumption to fake it?
It was almost definitely one of the most shocking fake punts I’ve ever seen. It’s also somehow both a great idea and a really stupid idea at the same time, which doesn’t seem like it should make sense. Let me explain. The whole point of a fake punt, of course, is to pick up a first down in a situation when the other team doesn’t expect you to do anything but execute a typical punt. If that’s the logic behind a fake punt, what better time to do it than when the game’s on the line and the other team would never think you would even consider having the gumption to fake it?
as a hawk fan that whole game was a cluster fuck of screw ups. Special teams was the one area we never had to worry about and it was horrible but just when I thought the game was in hand this monumentally ballsy call. Id be screaming if Pete attempted that given the field position and time left, make the other team earn it but Fisher is a gambler and when you're the rams and your seasons pretty much a write off anyway, and you got the superbowl champs on the ropes why not I guess. Right call for that team, bad call for anybody thinking playoffs. The refs not reviewing the play at the end was a bigger issue for me, the whole 1st half was a bigger issue for me.
this is really cool information... However, there's no way I can give it credit if it says "21%" chance that Rams win that game if they go for it and fail.
Seattle would have been on the 18 yard line down by 2. They wouldn't have to gain a yard on 3 carries and would only have to kick 35 yarder....
That play call at that point of the game, that was outrageous.
But it worked!
Why not?
Fisher's team is down to their 3rd string QB, who by the way has won two games.
They loss games when they probably should have won, blowing big leads. After earning those leads in those games they loss, in the second half they could not make another play to win.
Fisher decides to call the number of the punter and full back, you two, go make that play to win. Been waiting for the other guys on defense to make that 4th quarter play to win for weeks now, never happened. Russell Wilson, he won the Superbowl, he's good, and their offense has three touchdowns and two field goals, more than what Fisher's offense has done, and punting there will give them good field position.
Take your chances. Why not.
In the context of the Rams past month, someone had to make that play to win.
And they still almost fumble it away. The ref fixed it there. How can a team who calls a play like that not win? The Rams deserved it this time.
Make a play, damn it!
Slapping-silly90))
But it worked!
Why not?
Fisher's team is down to their 3rd string QB, who by the way has won two games.
They loss games when they probably should have won, blowing big leads. After earning those leads in those games they loss, in the second half they could not make another play to win.
Fisher decides to call the number of the punter and full back, you two, go make that play to win. Been waiting for the other guys on defense to make that 4th quarter play to win for weeks now, never happened. Russell Wilson, he won the Superbowl, he's good, and their offense has three touchdowns and two field goals, more than what Fisher's offense has done, and punting there will give them good field position.
Take your chances. Why not.
In the context of the Rams past month, someone had to make that play to win.
And they still almost fumble it away. The ref fixed it there. How can a team who calls a play like that not win? The Rams deserved it this time.
Make a play, damn it!
Slapping-silly90))
Based on the teams and situation I would have probably given Seattle slightly more then a 49% chance of winning With a punt
20 years ago you may have a point here but wih penalities every play against the defense and kickers able to hit 50+ yard fg's with ease...it was a great call to fake punt...not moronic at all. The game is so much different now, the days of punt and let your defense win it...are over...scoring is too easy now. Again, 1980 it would have been stupid fake punt...2014 it is brilliant. And they are not a heavy fav to win with a punt..prob a dog. Fisher knew their chances of winning if they punt are about 25 percent.
