ope:
<table class="data" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">Larry's 7* MASSIVE MISMATCH: 10-4-1 L7 days
Larry promised an 0-2 Tuesday wouldn't deter him on Wednesday and true to his word, he came through. He not only won his 1st 25* of the CBB season (Okla) but his MASSIVE MISMATCH on Ole Miss "all of that," as the Rebels won, 78-46!Larry's 10-4-1 the L7 days in CBB and another MASSIVE MISMATCH is on tap for Turkey Day. 'Gobble' it up!</td></tr></tbody></table>
Gonzaga
Larry Ness' 7* Holiday Bailout-CBB (71.4%)
Larry's 'lighting it up' in CBB the L7 days, going 10-4-1 (71.4% ATS). Thanksgiving is not an easy day for bettors, who spend the day with friends and family, while constantly checking for scores. Looking for that one late game after getting rid of your friends and family? Then look no further than Larry's 7* CBB Holiday Bailout!
Baylor
Gold Sheet
Key Release***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after
its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.
Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976
Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four
ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host
unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed
until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s
worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS
(04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)
DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back
after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their
troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they
are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team
at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,
even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX
(06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)
NFL ANALYSIS
*Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very
well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.
Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short
rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating
manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,
and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of
enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it
“going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on
defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27
*TEXAS 51 - Texas A&M 13—Texas can’t wait for this double-revenge date
vs. the defenseless Aggies (113th in defense). Longhorns need a big, fat win
to lock up at least a piece of the Big XII South and to preserve their high status
in the eyes of the BCS beholders. UT has so much liked the work of new
defensive coordinator Will Muschamp that he’s been signed as the HC in
waiting. Colt McCoy (30 TDs, only 7 ints.) played hurt vs. A&M two years ago;
now he’s at the peak of his game. Unbalanced A&M offense (110th in rushing)
is -9 in TOs. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-TEX. A&M 38-Texas 30...A.27-18 A.48/171 U.30/128 A.25/38/2/362 U.17/32/1/229 A.0 U.2)
(07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29...SR: Texas 73-36-5)
Key Release***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after
its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.
Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976
Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four
ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host
unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed
until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s
worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS
(04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)
DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back
after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their
troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they
are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team
at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,
even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX
(06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)
NFL ANALYSIS
*Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very
well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.
Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short
rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating
manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,
and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of
enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it
“going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on
defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27
*TEXAS 51 - Texas A&M 13—Texas can’t wait for this double-revenge date
vs. the defenseless Aggies (113th in defense). Longhorns need a big, fat win
to lock up at least a piece of the Big XII South and to preserve their high status
in the eyes of the BCS beholders. UT has so much liked the work of new
defensive coordinator Will Muschamp that he’s been signed as the HC in
waiting. Colt McCoy (30 TDs, only 7 ints.) played hurt vs. A&M two years ago;
now he’s at the peak of his game. Unbalanced A&M offense (110th in rushing)
is -9 in TOs. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-TEX. A&M 38-Texas 30...A.27-18 A.48/171 U.30/128 A.25/38/2/362 U.17/32/1/229 A.0 U.2)
(07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29...SR: Texas 73-36-5)
Nelly's Green Sheet
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
TEXAS (-34) Texas A&M 7:00 PM
The Longhorns will need to make its case in the media polls but the
reality is they probably need two major upsets to have a chance at
the Big 12 title game or the BCS title game. The Longhorns still
could manage a BCS spot but very little is under its own control
other than this final game. Texas A&M has covered in three straight
games against Texas, including upset wins each of the past two
years. It has been a tough year for the Aggies but this would be an
opportunity for a redeeming victory. With a defense that allows over
455 yards per game and an offense that lacks a reliable running
game it is tough to expect the Aggies to keep up in this match-up.
Texas has been vulnerable against strong passing teams ranking
110th nationally in passing yards allowed and A&M can have a
productive air attack to find the end zone. TEXAS BY 21
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
Tennessee (-11) DETROIT (44) 11:30 AM
The Titans perfect season came to an end but Tennessee is still in
command of the AFC. The Lions had another hot start last week but
Detroit can not hang on to leads and the run defense has been the worst
in the league. Many expect the Titans to bounce back and deliver a huge
win but Tennessee has shown a lot of vulnerability in recent weeks and
it is hard to envision the Titans pulling away for a convincing win in this
situation after the perfect season letdown. TITANS BY 7
DALLAS (-13) Seattle (47) 3:15 PM
Playing against good teams the last three weeks the Seahawks have
come close but have not been able to deliver wins. Dallas came up with
a great performance last week but the offense has scored 14 or fewer
points in four of the last five games. Now that Dallas is back at
“contender” status the value is going against them as they are still a
dysfunctional team that has underachieved. Seattle has only lost twice
ATS in the last six games. COWBOYS BY 10
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
TEXAS (-34) Texas A&M 7:00 PM
The Longhorns will need to make its case in the media polls but the
reality is they probably need two major upsets to have a chance at
the Big 12 title game or the BCS title game. The Longhorns still
could manage a BCS spot but very little is under its own control
other than this final game. Texas A&M has covered in three straight
games against Texas, including upset wins each of the past two
years. It has been a tough year for the Aggies but this would be an
opportunity for a redeeming victory. With a defense that allows over
455 yards per game and an offense that lacks a reliable running
game it is tough to expect the Aggies to keep up in this match-up.
Texas has been vulnerable against strong passing teams ranking
110th nationally in passing yards allowed and A&M can have a
productive air attack to find the end zone. TEXAS BY 21
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2008
Tennessee (-11) DETROIT (44) 11:30 AM
The Titans perfect season came to an end but Tennessee is still in
command of the AFC. The Lions had another hot start last week but
Detroit can not hang on to leads and the run defense has been the worst
in the league. Many expect the Titans to bounce back and deliver a huge
win but Tennessee has shown a lot of vulnerability in recent weeks and
it is hard to envision the Titans pulling away for a convincing win in this
situation after the perfect season letdown. TITANS BY 7
DALLAS (-13) Seattle (47) 3:15 PM
Playing against good teams the last three weeks the Seahawks have
come close but have not been able to deliver wins. Dallas came up with
a great performance last week but the offense has scored 14 or fewer
points in four of the last five games. Now that Dallas is back at
“contender” status the value is going against them as they are still a
dysfunctional team that has underachieved. Seattle has only lost twice
ATS in the last six games. COWBOYS BY 10
CKO
***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after
its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.
Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976
Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four
ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host
unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed
until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s
worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS
(04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)
DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back
after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their
troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they
are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team
at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,
even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX
(06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)
NFL ANALYSIS
*Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very
well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.
Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short
rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating
manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,
and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of
enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it
“going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on
defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)
***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after
its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.
Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976
Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four
ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host
unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed
until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s
worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS
(04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)
DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back
after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their
troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they
are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team
at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,
even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX
(06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)
NFL ANALYSIS
*Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very
well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.
Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short
rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating
manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,
and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of
enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it
“going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on
defense. TV—NFL NETWORK
(05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)
Kevin Kavitch
Seattle / Dallas
Too high of a total. Overall the Dallas run game hasn't been very good lately and they may not need to force the issue nfor 60 minutes on offense. The Seattle D has been respectable and can be competitivem here. The Dallas run D has looked solid and the pass D looks better. Seattle has struggled to throw it with Hasselbeck trying to get his form back. I expect Seattle will churn out their 5th straight under, especially considering the big number. Play Under 46.5 for a 3* regular play.
Seattle / Dallas
Too high of a total. Overall the Dallas run game hasn't been very good lately and they may not need to force the issue nfor 60 minutes on offense. The Seattle D has been respectable and can be competitivem here. The Dallas run D has looked solid and the pass D looks better. Seattle has struggled to throw it with Hasselbeck trying to get his form back. I expect Seattle will churn out their 5th straight under, especially considering the big number. Play Under 46.5 for a 3* regular play.
Mr. A
Thursday, November 27th, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
Texas A&M Aggies +35½
Don’t expect Texas A&M to be a threat against Texas, but the line open at 35and at this time the Longhorns are a 35½ point favorite. Take the points! The Aggies have upset the Longhorns in the last two meetings, but I would be shocked to see them thump by the inferior Aggies again. But covering the huge spread in this televised bitter rivalry is very possible.
Thursday, November 27th 12:30 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans -11
Tennessee Titans are coming off their first loss of the season, 34-13 pounding by the New York Jets and Favre. Take the Titans to pound the winless Detroit Lions in retaliation for last week defeat. Look for Tennessee ground assualt to score easily against Detroit’s run defense, ranked last in the league. Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games.
Thursday, November 27th 8:15 p.m. est.
Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Cardinals have lost nine straight games on the East Coast and eight of the last 11 games against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles’ forceful defense will put the pressure on the Cardinals offense and harass quarterback Kurt Warner. If Eagles’ offense and Donovan McNabb are alive and productive, the Eagles will have a good home Turkey day.
Thursday, November 27th, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
Texas A&M Aggies +35½
Don’t expect Texas A&M to be a threat against Texas, but the line open at 35and at this time the Longhorns are a 35½ point favorite. Take the points! The Aggies have upset the Longhorns in the last two meetings, but I would be shocked to see them thump by the inferior Aggies again. But covering the huge spread in this televised bitter rivalry is very possible.
Thursday, November 27th 12:30 p.m. est.
Tennessee Titans -11
Tennessee Titans are coming off their first loss of the season, 34-13 pounding by the New York Jets and Favre. Take the Titans to pound the winless Detroit Lions in retaliation for last week defeat. Look for Tennessee ground assualt to score easily against Detroit’s run defense, ranked last in the league. Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games.
Thursday, November 27th 8:15 p.m. est.
Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Cardinals have lost nine straight games on the East Coast and eight of the last 11 games against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles’ forceful defense will put the pressure on the Cardinals offense and harass quarterback Kurt Warner. If Eagles’ offense and Donovan McNabb are alive and productive, the Eagles will have a good home Turkey day.
Gina's
Thursday, November 27th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Seattle Seahawks (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (7-4)
The Cowboys and Tony Romo will carve the wrong bird on Turkey Day. Look for Dallas to destroy the struggling Seahawks in Texas. Seattle’s defense ranked 29th in the NFL will be torn apart by Romo and his talented receivers. Seattle has lost their last four games and dropped seven of their last eight on the road. Happy Thanksgiving!
Dallas Cowboys -12½
Thursday, November 27th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Seattle Seahawks (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (7-4)
The Cowboys and Tony Romo will carve the wrong bird on Turkey Day. Look for Dallas to destroy the struggling Seahawks in Texas. Seattle’s defense ranked 29th in the NFL will be torn apart by Romo and his talented receivers. Seattle has lost their last four games and dropped seven of their last eight on the road. Happy Thanksgiving!
Dallas Cowboys -12½
Cajun-Sports NFL/CFB Executive- Thursday
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Thursday November 27 (FOX)
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:29 EST November 26
Weather: Temp 74, mostly cloudy
Grade / Prediction: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
Analysis:
The Dallas Cowboys host their Annual Thanksgiving Day Game against the Seattle Seahawks this year on FOX TV. This game will be the late afternoon contest and may be the last game of the day for most because of the limited availability of the NFL Network who will air the night game on Thursday between the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Many asked what was missing during the Cowboys 1-2 skid recently the answer is quite simple, Tony Romo. Romo still looked tentative against the Redskins after coming back from a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand. He threw for 198 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 14 to 10 win over the Skins. But in Sunday’s win over San Francisco he looked like the two-time Pro Bowl Quarterback again as he led his team to the 35 to 22 win.
Romo completed 23-of-39 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns and was finally able to get Owens involved in the offense. Owens had seven catches for 213 yards and one score after he had five straight games of 38 yards or less a stretch that included three games without Romo.
Romo and Owens hope to build off Sunday's performance against a Seahawks' defense that is second-worst in the league against the pass allowing 259.2 yards per game.
Romo is 9-3 as a starter at Texas Stadium, and has led the Cowboys to victories in their last two Thanksgiving Day games. Dallas has won those games by an average of 29.5 points with the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback throwing for 501 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.
The Cowboys were actually rather fortunate in that they had their bye week just two weeks ago while the beaten and battered Seattle Seahawks had their bye week way back in Week Three of the season.
Seattle has certainly had their share of injuries this season including their Quarterback Matt Hasslebeck who has struggled with back problems for most of the 2008 campaign.
Hasslebeck’s recent return did not spark the Seahawks offense like they had hoped instead he has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. He is obviously rusty after missing five games and has not had much support from his offensive teammates. This offense has failed to score more than 17 points in seven games against non- NFC West opponents.
Another problem for this Seattle team is their defense allows over 400 yards per game on the road this season with 402.4 yards per game average. They have also allowed 401.7 yards per game of offense over their last three games. All this is good news for Dallas as they are 27-9 ATS when they gain at least 400 yards in a game since 1992. They are almost perfect (8-1 ATS) when they gain over 400 yards the last two seasons.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys winning this game 37 to 13. Our Player Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys with a 7.67 point advantage over the Seahawks that translates into a point differential of 19.67.
Key Angles: DALLAS is 14-3 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992. DALLAS is 19-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=285 yards/game since 1992. DALLAS is 18-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1992. The Cowboys are 17-3 ATS when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Cowboys are 17-5 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 5-13 ATS on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Seahawks are 3-14 ATS when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Seahawks are 1-10 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Key Systems: Play AGAINST NFL Teams after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half, 9-25-1 ATS. Play ON NFL Teams as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road in their next game, 66-40-3 ATS.
Key Tech Set: Play ON teams playing on a Thursday with a season-average O/U more than their opponent’s season O/U average and they scored more than 24 points in their last game, 25-3 ATS since 1994. Play AGAINST teams with an above average WR3A and a TD via Turnover % For that is higher than their TDT%A, 148-48 ATS since 1994.
With Romo back in the saddle and most of his troops healthy we will back the hosts here as the Cowboys continue their recent trend of doing away with their Thanksgiving Day opponents by almost 30 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
THURSDAY 11/27/2008
8:00 PM EST – ESPN
4 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS -35 over Texas A&M
The Longhorns close out what has been a wild regular season with a Big 12 Conference game against the hated Aggies. This season has been disappointing for Texas A&M, as it owns a 4-7 record, will be home for the holidays, and has been a non-factor in the league. The Aggies have lost their last two outings, including a 41-21 setback to Baylor on the road last weekend.
As for Texas, it is tied with Oklahoma and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South Division standings. All three teams are in action this week, and if all three win as they are favored to do so, the BCS standings will decide which of the three will face Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. It appears to be a two-team race between Texas and Oklahoma, and while Texas is currently ahead of the Sooners, it is widely speculated that a victory over Oklahoma State this weekend would vault the Sooners into the title tilt. That would undoubtedly anger the Longhorns, who beat the Sooners on a neutral field earlier in the season. The lone loss for Mack Brown's team came against Texas Tech in Lubbock on a long touchdown pass in the closing seconds. The most recent outing for Texas took place On November 15th against Kansas and resulted in a 35-7 win.
One of the more contentious issues for Texas is the coaches' poll, which comprises one-third of the weight in the BCS formula. The Longhorns were ranked fourth in the latest rankings, two spots behind Oklahoma after the Sooners delivered a crushing victory against Texas Tech last Saturday.
"I think the coaches will come to light this weekend. I really worry that coaches don't pay too much attention to (voting). We didn't play (last) weekend. They're sitting there, getting on their planes, saw a score and said, 'Wow, let's do this,'" Texas coach Mack Brown said.
One plus for Texas in terms of swaying voters is it plays the only major college football game staged on Thanksgiving. The Longhorns are also aware of the upset potential the Aggies flexed the past two seasons.
"You walk around campus, you go home and people are calling you from back home talking about what needs to happen and what needs to go on, and if we're going to be there in Miami or not. I reply back with the same text message, 'We've got to beat Texas A&M. That's it.'" — Texas quarterback Colt McCoy.
Although he engineered upsets against Texas each of the past two seasons, Aggies QB Stephen McGee has been relegated to the sidelines. A recurring shoulder injury early in the season cost McGee his spot. QB Jerrod Johnson stepped in and progressed nicely before playing poorly in the past two games. Either quarterback could have trouble dodging Texas defenders. The Aggies are allowing three sacks per game and the Longhorns lead the nation in sacks.
Losing to Baylor was certainly not a good sign for the Aggies, as underdogs of more than 17 points off a SU loss to Baylor are 0-5 SU (-31.8 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since 1992
While A&M is getting a lot of points here, they are 0-3 SU (-44.3 ppg) & 0-3 ATS (-18.8 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 18 points since at least 1980.
While they have beaten Texas the past 2 seasons, it’s likely time to “pay the piper “here, as the Aggies are 0-6 ATS since 2007 vs. opponents playing with double revenge.
Following 2 ugly losses, big underdogs in their final games have simply been demolished under the exact circumstances outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST an underdog of more than 21 points off a SU loss of 15+ points (not an ATS win of 6+ points) in each of its last 2 games and not a SU loss of 3+ points before that.
These teams are 0-10 SU & ATS since at least 1980, which is as far back as the database goes, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 21 points per game!
Meanwhile, Texas is 4-0 SU (+33 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) in their final home game of the season with less than 2 SU losses.
Also of note, very large home favorites at the right price have been strong against most opponents in the final game of the season. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that the Longhorns qualify for. It reads:
In its Final Game, play ON a conference home favorite of 30½-36½ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU loss and ATS win.
In another situation that has been perfect since at least 1980, and perhaps longer, these teams are 11-0 SU (+46.5 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+13.8 ppg).
Having won the last 2 years, the Aggies will get the Longhorns full attention. Texas needs a win and will look to absolutely bury A&M, as they will be making a statement to the voters that they, not the Sooners, should be in the Big 12 Championship Game.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS 51 TEXAS A&M 7
<!-- / message -->
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Thursday November 27 (FOX)
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:29 EST November 26
Weather: Temp 74, mostly cloudy
Grade / Prediction: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
Analysis:
The Dallas Cowboys host their Annual Thanksgiving Day Game against the Seattle Seahawks this year on FOX TV. This game will be the late afternoon contest and may be the last game of the day for most because of the limited availability of the NFL Network who will air the night game on Thursday between the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Many asked what was missing during the Cowboys 1-2 skid recently the answer is quite simple, Tony Romo. Romo still looked tentative against the Redskins after coming back from a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand. He threw for 198 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 14 to 10 win over the Skins. But in Sunday’s win over San Francisco he looked like the two-time Pro Bowl Quarterback again as he led his team to the 35 to 22 win.
Romo completed 23-of-39 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns and was finally able to get Owens involved in the offense. Owens had seven catches for 213 yards and one score after he had five straight games of 38 yards or less a stretch that included three games without Romo.
Romo and Owens hope to build off Sunday's performance against a Seahawks' defense that is second-worst in the league against the pass allowing 259.2 yards per game.
Romo is 9-3 as a starter at Texas Stadium, and has led the Cowboys to victories in their last two Thanksgiving Day games. Dallas has won those games by an average of 29.5 points with the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback throwing for 501 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.
The Cowboys were actually rather fortunate in that they had their bye week just two weeks ago while the beaten and battered Seattle Seahawks had their bye week way back in Week Three of the season.
Seattle has certainly had their share of injuries this season including their Quarterback Matt Hasslebeck who has struggled with back problems for most of the 2008 campaign.
Hasslebeck’s recent return did not spark the Seahawks offense like they had hoped instead he has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. He is obviously rusty after missing five games and has not had much support from his offensive teammates. This offense has failed to score more than 17 points in seven games against non- NFC West opponents.
Another problem for this Seattle team is their defense allows over 400 yards per game on the road this season with 402.4 yards per game average. They have also allowed 401.7 yards per game of offense over their last three games. All this is good news for Dallas as they are 27-9 ATS when they gain at least 400 yards in a game since 1992. They are almost perfect (8-1 ATS) when they gain over 400 yards the last two seasons.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys winning this game 37 to 13. Our Player Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys with a 7.67 point advantage over the Seahawks that translates into a point differential of 19.67.
Key Angles: DALLAS is 14-3 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992. DALLAS is 19-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=285 yards/game since 1992. DALLAS is 18-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1992. The Cowboys are 17-3 ATS when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Cowboys are 17-5 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 5-13 ATS on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Seahawks are 3-14 ATS when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Seahawks are 1-10 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Key Systems: Play AGAINST NFL Teams after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half, 9-25-1 ATS. Play ON NFL Teams as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road in their next game, 66-40-3 ATS.
Key Tech Set: Play ON teams playing on a Thursday with a season-average O/U more than their opponent’s season O/U average and they scored more than 24 points in their last game, 25-3 ATS since 1994. Play AGAINST teams with an above average WR3A and a TD via Turnover % For that is higher than their TDT%A, 148-48 ATS since 1994.
With Romo back in the saddle and most of his troops healthy we will back the hosts here as the Cowboys continue their recent trend of doing away with their Thanksgiving Day opponents by almost 30 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
THURSDAY 11/27/2008
8:00 PM EST – ESPN
4 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS -35 over Texas A&M
The Longhorns close out what has been a wild regular season with a Big 12 Conference game against the hated Aggies. This season has been disappointing for Texas A&M, as it owns a 4-7 record, will be home for the holidays, and has been a non-factor in the league. The Aggies have lost their last two outings, including a 41-21 setback to Baylor on the road last weekend.
As for Texas, it is tied with Oklahoma and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South Division standings. All three teams are in action this week, and if all three win as they are favored to do so, the BCS standings will decide which of the three will face Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. It appears to be a two-team race between Texas and Oklahoma, and while Texas is currently ahead of the Sooners, it is widely speculated that a victory over Oklahoma State this weekend would vault the Sooners into the title tilt. That would undoubtedly anger the Longhorns, who beat the Sooners on a neutral field earlier in the season. The lone loss for Mack Brown's team came against Texas Tech in Lubbock on a long touchdown pass in the closing seconds. The most recent outing for Texas took place On November 15th against Kansas and resulted in a 35-7 win.
One of the more contentious issues for Texas is the coaches' poll, which comprises one-third of the weight in the BCS formula. The Longhorns were ranked fourth in the latest rankings, two spots behind Oklahoma after the Sooners delivered a crushing victory against Texas Tech last Saturday.
"I think the coaches will come to light this weekend. I really worry that coaches don't pay too much attention to (voting). We didn't play (last) weekend. They're sitting there, getting on their planes, saw a score and said, 'Wow, let's do this,'" Texas coach Mack Brown said.
One plus for Texas in terms of swaying voters is it plays the only major college football game staged on Thanksgiving. The Longhorns are also aware of the upset potential the Aggies flexed the past two seasons.
"You walk around campus, you go home and people are calling you from back home talking about what needs to happen and what needs to go on, and if we're going to be there in Miami or not. I reply back with the same text message, 'We've got to beat Texas A&M. That's it.'" — Texas quarterback Colt McCoy.
Although he engineered upsets against Texas each of the past two seasons, Aggies QB Stephen McGee has been relegated to the sidelines. A recurring shoulder injury early in the season cost McGee his spot. QB Jerrod Johnson stepped in and progressed nicely before playing poorly in the past two games. Either quarterback could have trouble dodging Texas defenders. The Aggies are allowing three sacks per game and the Longhorns lead the nation in sacks.
Losing to Baylor was certainly not a good sign for the Aggies, as underdogs of more than 17 points off a SU loss to Baylor are 0-5 SU (-31.8 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since 1992
While A&M is getting a lot of points here, they are 0-3 SU (-44.3 ppg) & 0-3 ATS (-18.8 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 18 points since at least 1980.
While they have beaten Texas the past 2 seasons, it’s likely time to “pay the piper “here, as the Aggies are 0-6 ATS since 2007 vs. opponents playing with double revenge.
Following 2 ugly losses, big underdogs in their final games have simply been demolished under the exact circumstances outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST an underdog of more than 21 points off a SU loss of 15+ points (not an ATS win of 6+ points) in each of its last 2 games and not a SU loss of 3+ points before that.
These teams are 0-10 SU & ATS since at least 1980, which is as far back as the database goes, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 21 points per game!
Meanwhile, Texas is 4-0 SU (+33 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) in their final home game of the season with less than 2 SU losses.
Also of note, very large home favorites at the right price have been strong against most opponents in the final game of the season. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that the Longhorns qualify for. It reads:
In its Final Game, play ON a conference home favorite of 30½-36½ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU loss and ATS win.
In another situation that has been perfect since at least 1980, and perhaps longer, these teams are 11-0 SU (+46.5 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+13.8 ppg).
Having won the last 2 years, the Aggies will get the Longhorns full attention. Texas needs a win and will look to absolutely bury A&M, as they will be making a statement to the voters that they, not the Sooners, should be in the Big 12 Championship Game.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS 51 TEXAS A&M 7
<!-- / message -->
