Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 12 (9-5, 64% TY)-Thursday
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Lions at 12:30 ET.
The Lions have been dismal at home on Thanksgiving Day over the last six years, losing and failing to cover in all six of these contests. The average score over this stretch has been an unappetizing 36-12. However, this historical backdrop presents a nice opportunity, as I think Detroit will finally be a dangerous home underdog this "Turkey Day." New England comes off its emotional 31-28 win over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in the late afternoon game on Sunday. Now, with only three days to recuperate and prepare, the Patriots travel to Detroit to play the early Thanksgiving Day game. Bill Belichick has not coached against a Lions team since 2006 in the Rod Marinelli era, so he is not very familiar with this team under Jim Schwartz. As it is, New England is only 1-4-1 ATS this year as a favorite (home or away). The defense remains vulnerable as it ranks 31st (behind only pathetic Houston) in passing yards allowed (289.6 YPG) while ranking 30th in the NFL by allowing 394.3 YPG, overall. On the road, this unit is allowing 432 YPG and 29.3 PPG. Even with Shaun Hill at QB, the Lions possess a potent offense. Detroit is 6th in the NFL with its 255.9 passing YPG average. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has the opportunity for a big day against a Patriots secondary that does not have a shutdown cornerback. The Lions come off a 35-19 loss in Dallas last Sunday, despite the fact that they outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards on offense. Detroit returns home to Ford Field after two games in a row on the road. The last time the Lions were at home they blew a 10-point, 4th quarter lead in losing to the Jets, but only after taking the game to overtime. While 2-2 SU at home overall, Detroit has covered in all FOUR games, averaging 33.3 PPG. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense leads the league by scoring 28.9 PPG. However, this unit is gaining less than 300 YPG when on the road. Led by Ndamukong Suh, the Lions defense is holding opponents to just 212.3 passing YPG (12th in the NFL). The team's strong defensive line has the ability to wreak havoc with Brady's rhythm. FIVE of Detroit's eight losses this season have been by five points or less and the Lions have covered in SIX straight games against teams with a winning record. Given their likely letdown from the Colts game and the demands of travel on a short week, the Pats will be happy to just to escape Detroit with a win. The Lions may likely find another way to lose a football game but then again, maybe not. Not many 2-8 teams are 7-3 ATS but that's EXACTLY where the Lions stand on this Thanksgiving Day. If the Browns can 'spank' the Pats by a score of 34-14 on their home field, I can can take a TD (or almost one) here in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day!
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-CFB (14-5 run)-A&M/Tex
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Texas at 8:00 ET
Texas A&M won its 5th game in a row after upsetting Nebraska last Saturday by a 9-6 score. At 8-3 for the season, the Aggies have scored impressive Big 12 wins against Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech over the last month. Is this club really that good? Mike Sherman deserves credit for making the hard decision to bench three-year starting QB Jerrod Johnson for turning the ball over too many times. Ryan Tannehill has steadied the offense by throwing only three interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes. However, it is interesting to note that over the Aggies' last three games, they are averaging 70 yards less in the air than their season's average of 295.7 passing YPG while gaining 80 YPG less overall than their current 455 total YPG average. So, while Tannehill's ball control has been helpful, there remains the question as to whether this offense is as potent as it was under Johnson. Now the Aggies go on the road for only the second time since October 23rd to play the Longhorns. Tannehill will likely need to generate more offense in this game since the A&M defense is allowing 26 PPG along with 395 total YPG when on the road this season. The Texas offense has stalled at many times this season but the Longhorns are gaining over 400 YPG in Austin this year, 30 YPG higher than their seasonal average. Texas comes off a 51-17 blowout of Florida Atlantic last week where the Longhorns totaled more than 500 yards of much-needed offense. The Longhorns accumulated 259 yards on the ground in that game while QB Garrett Gilbert was an efficient 15-of-21 for 263 yards and two TD passes. However, the strength of this Texas team is its defense which ranks 11th in the FBS in pass defense (164.6 YPG) and 8th in the FBS in yards allowed overall (294.2). On a short week, Texas is in a very good position to play one of its best games of the season, as this will be its third week in a row (and five out of the last six) at home in Austin. At 5-6 for the season, Mack Brown REALLY needs his team to pull out a win to ensure the Longhorns are, once again, bowl eligible. Texas last failed to play in a bowl game in the 1997 season, the year BEFORE Brown's arrival from North Carolina. These schools first met in '94, that's 1894 and this marks the 117th meeting. Brown is 9-3 SU vs A&M since arriving in Austin, including 5-1 here at home. He's also 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his final home game since coming to Austin. This will be just Mike Sherman's third A&M / Texas game and his team has been on the losing end the first two times, 49-9 and 49-39. What's more strange is that his Aggies were five-TD underdogs in Austin in 2008 and three-TD underdogs last year at home in College Station. Thanksgiving night 2010, the Aggies come in as a FG favorite in Austin. How strange is that? Don't count out the Longhorns just yet, as I expect a SUPER effort, as the Longhorns become bowl eligible, catching A&M off its emotional 9-6 win last week over Nebraska. Brown was a 2 1/2-point underdog to Texas A&M in his first-ever Aggies/Longhorns game in 1998, winning 26-24. His team hasn't been an underdog vs A&M since. That game, like this one, was played in Austin. Can you say déjà vu?
