Thanksgiving day game 1?

[pigskinpete]

Okay, what am I missing….Det +9.5?….seems like too much?…Lions have won 3 straight, granted the Packers, Bears or Giants are not as good as Buffalo…but they are playing pretty well…Buffalo is in a situation where they had a short week to prepare because of the weather and now another short week because of the holiday…AND they have @ NE, Mia and the Jets next up!…I really need to get off to a good start on Thursday…any early thoughts?

 

[pigskinpete]

Lions have been a home dog 3x…1-2 su…2-0-1 ats…+5.5 was the most, covered but lost to Philly…now +9.5 to the Bills, who are in a tough situational spot…starting to think they want you to take the Lions?

Buffalo already favored 5x on the road…3-2 su…2-3 ats…most was -10.5 @nyj (lost outright)

starting to reconsider Det…looks too good!

 

[DaKaty]

Maybe play a 3tm 9pt tzr with the other 2 TGiving games? So, .... Detroit +18.5 , and go cap the other 2. ?

 

[vinnyvegas]

Lions play HARD to end. Back door always a good chance if not already close

 

[statman03]

Buffalo is just another team now.......4 st non covers depending on your line in Cleve game......Det won and covered 3 st......looks like the Lions win their first Thanks game since 2016....if not they have plenty of room to cover

 

[brendanjack]

Lions have been a great short dog . Covering machine . Bills can right the ship here get some extra rest .

 

[pigskinpete]

With the Bill 0-2 in a very tight division (losing to NE and NYJ), it might be difficult to get any tiebreakers…I’m thinking that they know they may need to finish with the best record…I still am undecided, but I appreciate the input!

 

[Greenbacks]

I personally don't like the 1st 2 games.
But I do love the Patriots +2.5.
Good luck

 

[HacheMan]

Gun to my head i take the points

 

[ca$hmoney]

Home dogs of 6+ are 6-0 this season. Detroit is a scrappy bunch. Buy the hook and grab 10

 

[Bozzie]

I personally don't like the 1st 2 games.
But I do love the Patriots +2.5.
Good luck

I don't either.. but on the other side, GL with the weeks picks

 

[duckhunter]

I always take the points in the NFL if over 6 or 7. In the long run, you will come out ahead. Especially home dogs.

 

[pigskinpete]

Just as an aside on the Dallas game, didn’t our old friend eddierebel have a system about road chalk winning by 28+ …I tried to search for it, but gave up…I remember it seemed to usually be a winner…just can’t remember the particulars?…(I do miss those educatedrebel1 write-ups!)

 

[theDonger]

Will the short rest affect Bills as much considering they're already in Detroit... they took the visitor locker room for the game against the Browns...

I like Detroit here, don't like Detroit's history of not covering on Thanksgiving-- but this team seems capable of hanging with Buff, might even win.

 

[brendanjack]

Just as an aside on the Dallas game, didn’t our old friend eddierebel have a system about road chalk winning by 28+ …I tried to search for it, but gave up…I remember it seemed to usually be a winner…just can’t remember the particulars?…(I do miss those educatedrebel1 write-ups!)

Look in games thread points specifically to Dallas going back to 1997 of following a 28 point or more victory

 

[brendanjack]

In games thread he writes Dallas 4-13 ATS since 1997 after winning by 28pts or more.

 

[peanuts]

I have Bills -10 but I'm nervous even though it's the Lions. This could also end up with an upset win.

 

[itchyback]

The lions are 1 in 5 straight up their last 6 Thanksgiving games While Dallas is 2 and 4 their last 6 Thanksgiving games straight up

 

[pigskinpete]

In games thread he writes Dallas 4-13 ATS since 1997 after winning by 28pts or more.

I wasn’t thinking of Dallas specifically…I was thinking all teams that win by 28+ as road chalk the week before…but those are interesting numbers…thanks!

 

[Greenbacks]

Public on the Lions 67%
Total on the move going from 52.5 to 54.5