I'm considering taking the other side of my Charlotte pick, and putting more cash on Chicago instead, because your system is having so much success! :think2:
Even if I stick with Charlotte, in the back of my mind I'll be conflicted, and would probably end up hoping you'll end up with a sweep on your picks, even more so than my own. Because if this system your sharing, keeps up this success.....think it would make it a lot easier to just tail your picks :>Grin>
The picks your system has been on the money on, which has been most, don't seem like flukes at all. It seems to make very intelligent picks. I'm impressed.
Even if I stick with Charlotte, in the back of my mind I'll be conflicted, and would probably end up hoping you'll end up with a sweep on your picks, even more so than my own. Because if this system your sharing, keeps up this success.....think it would make it a lot easier to just tail your picks :>Grin>
The picks your system has been on the money on, which has been most, don't seem like flukes at all. It seems to make very intelligent picks. I'm impressed.
thanks for the kind words abnormality, but always try and stick with your gut. maybe just lay off the game and check the result. bet the games where your gut and the system match.. my original plan when developing the system was to just use it as one tool in handicapping. i wanted to see when one of the nba cappers i respect (spreadbeater, serious addiction, and gabbana) had a play on a side that my numbers showed value on. it started pretty successfully last year so i decided to just flat bet the system plays.
I basically create a line for the game by assigning point values to different statistics. One of my favorite stats is fg% differential for both off and def. When the line is 3-5 points off the real line, its a lean. When it's off by 5 or more pts, its a play. Hope that gives you an idea on how the system works.
I basically create a line for the game by assigning point values to different statistics. One of my favorite stats is fg% differential for both off and def. When the line is 3-5 points off the real line, its a lean. When it's off by 5 or more pts, its a play. Hope that gives you an idea on how the system works.
I'm not a complete expert with numbers or stats, but yah, the 2nd night of a b2b can be a killer to a lot of teams towards the end of the game. However, if the 2nd night of a b2b is at home, that disadvantage of it being a b2b game is nullified quite a bit, being that the home team gets extra energy from the crowd, as well as the usual comfort of just being home sweet home. And of course the extra whistles going the home team's way, always boosts a tired out ball club, as you saw in disgust yesterday :tongue:
So if you adjust your the b2b formula, maybe you could just lower the value for teams on the road on a 2nd night of a b2b, but leave home games on the 2nd night of a b2b as it has been, untouched? Just a suggestion.... just PLEASE, don't make huge changes yet, mid-season, nor get rid of b2b plays completely. I bet some of your previous winners were on b2b games, so you'd lose out of some of those previous winners if you do this, possibly. It's a given 0-3 days will happen, this is the NBA, good picks can end up failing even when they are the right picks! Keep up the good work dude! Don't mess too much with a good thing you have going!
So if you adjust your the b2b formula, maybe you could just lower the value for teams on the road on a 2nd night of a b2b, but leave home games on the 2nd night of a b2b as it has been, untouched? Just a suggestion.... just PLEASE, don't make huge changes yet, mid-season, nor get rid of b2b plays completely. I bet some of your previous winners were on b2b games, so you'd lose out of some of those previous winners if you do this, possibly. It's a given 0-3 days will happen, this is the NBA, good picks can end up failing even when they are the right picks! Keep up the good work dude! Don't mess too much with a good thing you have going!
If I were you I wouldn't reveal anything more about your formula publicly, who knows if anyone working for the lines is lurking around.
Hubbard316's request scares me a bit being a newly registered user just asking about the formula. Most likely he's probably just like one of us, but who knows. It's possible some of these formulas that go public could end up catching on to the lines makers.
Leave it to only posting the picks dude! Great job once again! You went 2-0 with ease yesterday!
Hubbard316's request scares me a bit being a newly registered user just asking about the formula. Most likely he's probably just like one of us, but who knows. It's possible some of these formulas that go public could end up catching on to the lines makers.
Leave it to only posting the picks dude! Great job once again! You went 2-0 with ease yesterday!
His formula is easy to figure out. I've done it and going to share it with everyone here.
Take the derivative of both teams:
1. <!-- MP EQPH( --><SCRIPT id=mpeq0001s1> MPSetEqnAttrs('eq0001','',3,[[131,26,9,-1,-1],[174,34,13,-1,-1],[216,43,16,-1,-1],[195,39,14,-1,-1],[260,51,19,-1,-1],[326,63,23,-2,-2],[544,105,39,-3,-3]])</SCRIPT>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>Then divide by 20</NOBR>
Add 3 for the away team.
Minus 3 for the home team.
<NOBR>If the number is >5 then it's a play</NOBR>
<NOBR>If the number is <5 then it's not a play.</NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>Enjoy!
</NOBR>
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