Tennis Miami - Leviathan

[Leviathan]

Vliegen +215 over Gasquet. Gasquet has to be tired after the Wimbledon and chancing to the clay from faster surfaces is always hard. Gasquet managed to do the surfacechance nicely winning R-H in in straight sets who against he had two loss before today. I saw the match only trough scoreboard but it seemed like Gasquet had huge problems to keep his serve and even Vliegen is unpredictable he is much harder to break. Their head to head record sounds weird, Vliegen leads 3-0, all matches in straight sets and two on the clay. Gasquet is now 6-0 at Bastad but I think this situation is much better for Vliegen and he definately has something in his game but Gasquet is still a young player and developing but now Vliegen looks like a good bet.

Seppi -118 over Koubek. I was amazed to see Youzhny playing because of his back but there he was. He had a bad record against Koubek but I think Youzhny just wanted to lose the match. Seppi's return abilities should be too much for Koubek who has lost their previous meetings but then Seppi was in much better form, now it is like he can lose for anybody and Koubek is playing in his homeland.

 

[Leviathan]

Starace +194 over Andreev. I think we are seeing the effect of a nice Frenc Open from Andreev in the odds. These altitudes are great for Starace who is 8-2 at Gstaad losing for Federer and well yeah for Razvan Sabau. Andreev also has some memries from Gstaad with 5-2 record losses against Federer and Feli Lopez. Andreev has won both of their previous clay matches but Starace managed to beat Andreev on the hard in their previous match what is good because Starace is such a clay specialist. Andreev is also better on the clay but I am seeing this much more equal match Andreev favoured but more like +140-+160

 

[Leviathan]

Amritraj and Seppi won their matches. Vliegen and Starace lost. Specially Andreev surprised me keeping his serve very convincely. Gasquet seems to be well right now but I do not know what to expect from him. There is the tiredness factor but on the other way he is capable to play great tennis so no more Gasquet matches for me this week.

Have to take a better look later but now two matches what I am intrested in. Moya -125 over Soderling. Soderling is playing at home but I trust his head gives this match for Moya. Soderling is always a dangerous player because it seems to me that he has so much potential what he is not using and his groundstrokes are a deadly weapon but I think Moya's form is better now and he has got two easy wins. Winning Thomas was not a big job because he is not a good player on the clay and he is apparently still suffering with his eye.

Other game I like is Horna +192 over Almagro. Horna in good form as other posters have said before and Almagro has had some problems with his game. Still Almagro's firstserve has been great and if he can keep that high Horna is in trouble. On the other hand Horna is a very hard hitting player so it might be sweat for Almagro to brake him. Both matches with low stakes.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Man, that FC Haka story is unbelievable. There's so much money being poured into betting from the Asian market. Just a couple of days ago, four Vietnamese guys were arrested for some kind of involvement in illegal betting. Wherever there is a vast amount of money, there is bound to be corruption and it's easier to target the smaller matches/leagues.

You're definitely right about there being fixed tennis matches in some smaller tourneys. More money to be made for the lower-ranked players. Speaking of dodgy tennis matches/players... I'm betting against Volandri tomorrow...

Andreev was really impressive today. I'd expected a bigger fight from Starace, but like you said he just couldn't get past Igor's serve. Nice hit on Seppi!

I'm still undecided on Horna - but the odds definitely have value.

Good luck!

 

[rhinooooo]

Just to let you know...

Boylesports have taken down the MVA/Seppi line...

best odds are 1.90 for MVA at Bet365 or 1.91 at Bwin

 

[rhinooooo]

Nice hit on Moya. Unlucky with Horna as he kept it close, and was up a break in the first set!

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino. Horna had no many chances eventually, maby if he had kept his serve in the first set but many times a player who makes a rebreak in the first set and takes the first set takes the second set too. It might be mentally hard for some players to rise from that situation.

Today I took Almagro +245 over Ferrer. You could say both of these players are clayspecialists and that odd just feels to be too big. Almagro is getting his game more and more what it should be and yesterday he said he lost his concentration in the second set but but got that back in the last set. They have met two times and Ferrer was better both times on the hard surface. He totally dominated the matches but Almagro's lifetime record on the hard is 12-17 when it is on the clay 152-69 so I would not give big deal for their previous meetings. Ferrer is on hard 51-39 so no much better results but I consider him much better on the hard, on clay Ferrer is 187-96. Ferrer has been an exellent serve returner this week as he usually is but Almagro has a very good serve so it is a little mystery why he is not able to get some results on other surfaces too. I think Almagro is very coolheaded player because what I have seen he usually saves very well breakpoints. He already managed to beat Moya who has a bit similar gamestyle with Ferrer expekt Ferrer is maby faster and better coming to the net but playing against Moya his last match should help Almagro in this match.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Good luck!

 

[Leviathan]

Ferrer got an easy win. I watched that match and Ferrer was sharper almost in everything what happened. Almagro had only one service game where Ferrer had no breakpoints and mentally Almagro was totally down, screaming and throwing things all the time, almost like yesterday in the second set against Moya. Bad bet.

 

[Leviathan]

Cilic -190 over Becker. Benjamin played at weekend in german bundesleague and he totally sucks on this surface. Cilic is a big promise and he should take this match easily imo.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Just as you said... Cilic takes the match easily. Nice one.

 

[Leviathan]

:toast: Cilic did what excepted, wondering why Benjamin plays still on the clay even there is hardcourt tournament too.

Two bets to Amersfoort tomorrow. Darcis +248 over Gicquel and Tipsarevic +255 over Andreev. Many players have said that it is hard to come from Gstaad to the Amersfoort because the surfaces are totally different even both are claycourts. Gstaad is on high altitude and it is fast when Amersfoort should be very slow. Gicquel and Andreev were both high there and I think we will see that in their games tomorrow. Darcis came trough qualies and is a bit unknown but from his results it seems that he is a pure clayplayer who likes the better if the court is slower. I can not see Gicquel being so comfortable on this surface and not so sure about his motivation either so Darcis should have devent chances to win that match. Andreev showed some great stuff with his forehand at Gstaad until Seppi surprised him. Tipsarevic's last match was on the grass at Wimbledon so it is unsure how sharp he will be but his game has taken nice steps forward this year as far as I have seen it and if he continues on his risen level this will be hard match for Andreev.

GL

 

[rhinooooo]

Completely agree with both. Darcis has a great chance, as I don't think Gicquel has ever been too comfortable on clay. I'm slightly worried about Tipsy, but he's worth a shot at those odds. Good luck.

 

[BetIt]

a split is a profit...nice hit on darcis

either andreev looked really good (didn't face a bp) or tipsy looked horrible

a profit is a profit though

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks BetIt. Yeah profit is always a profit but Tipsarevic match was a total disaster, he lost 6-1, 6-1. The odds of Andreev dropped before the matchtime so there might have been better information about T's motivation or what he have been doing after the Wimbledon. I should be more careful with these matches where is surface chances. I think T should have no great problems with big forehands but his last two matches are saying something else.

Women in Palermo I like Errani -104 over Razzano. Razzano's last game was on the grass at Wimbledon but she has had time to practise on the clay. Her game is better for the fast surfaces but her record this year on clay is 6-6. Errani has played on the clay since April and has gave some good stuff mostly in challengers. Now when Errani has her homecrowd behind her it should be easier to give a good performance on the major tournaments too in which she is at this season so far 3-3. Even Errani has been more like a challenger player she should be the slight favourite to this match imo.

GL

 

[BetIt]

easy win with Errani

nice hit, followed you here

 

[Leviathan]

Congrats for us :toast:

I was surprised how easily Errani won that match, 6-2, 6-0. The biggest missmatch of the day what should have been a bet afterwards thought was a bet against Almagro. At sunday when Almagro was in the final against Ferrer his game was just as errorfree as Gaudio's game nowadays with same attitude. AAAARGH, I WILL KILL YOU <-- *Almagro talking to his racket*. I thought he could gather himself in this time and against such an "easy" opponent but no. Intresting to see how his next tournament will go because he has some talents and he is only 21 years old.

 

[rhinooooo]

Nice day Levi.

I really wish I faded Almagro today. I was so tempted but just couldn't pull the trigger especially seeing as Eschauer is an oldie.

 

[Leviathan]

Thanks Rhino. Today I took Nagy +134 over Malek in Palermo. Malek played Fed Cup at the weekend playing in three matches on the carpet and when Germany won Japan 3-2 so a big win for her specially when she was in the all matches won. Many times in men after DC they are a bit rusty in the next tournament and I think it is very possible with Malek too after playing three matches. On the other hand she is young, born -87 so it it easier for her to get in form. Her opponent Nagy is an oldie playing mostly challengers and she has also a surface chance ahead of her but I think she is in very good form right now with high confidence after winning 16 of her last 17 match but on the challenger level of course. Nagy has won Malek two years ago on the clay in three sets but Malek is the one who has done development after that. The clay is Nagy's favourite surface when Malek favours more faster courts but she is not a bad on clay either. The thing what keeps my stake low is Nagy's last three years record on the clay at major tournaments: 1-8.

GL

 

[Leviathan]

Nagy won her match in straight sets. Other German's Fed Cup single player was Kerber who has showed some nice results this year but now she has had some travelling. I do not know where she was before she went to the Japan and now to the Cincinnati. Her first round match was against Rodionova which I believe she would have lost if there was no retirement from Rodionova. Her opponent is now Morigami who had also small problems in her match but that might be because of the surface chance, anyway she was over -200 favourite against Pin and lost the first set and won next two sets in tiebreaks. Morigami should be far more motivated to this game because she had good success 2005 when she reached the final. 2006 she did not took part to the tournament because of her Fed Cup games. Morigami -163 over Kerber.

GL