In appreciation for everyones support on here and all the great feedback everyone has given me, I'd like to extend my thanks by giving you the link to my play on Super Bowl 45. Again, Thank You and please keep me in mind for all of your future wagers.
~Alpha Capper~
http://***********.com/NFLSB11.php
~Alpha Capper~
http://***********.com/NFLSB11.php
[SIZE=+0][/SIZE]
Sorry, the link didn't post. Here is my play.
NFL - Super Bowl 45!
NFL Sunday Feb 6, 2011 6:25 p.m., $10.00 Pick, $15.00 Guarantee.
Green Bay Packers Vs Pittsburgh Steelers
(Green Bay -2.5, 44)
NFL - Super Bowl 45!
NFL Sunday Feb 6, 2011 6:25 p.m., $10.00 Pick, $15.00 Guarantee.
Green Bay Packers Vs Pittsburgh Steelers
(Green Bay -2.5, 44)
THE PICK >Pittsburgh +3 (buy the half)
THE ANALYSIS >
</STRONG>Look , we all know about the latest version of this Packers team. They have looked super impressive as of late wearing out opponents like Atlanta and the Bears. Heck, their last 5 games may as well been all playoff games dating back to their final 2 regular season games. They have all been 'must wins". You can't take anything away from them here and with that being said I'm not going to put too much emphasis on Rodgers and the rest of this Green Bay team having to play under enormous pressure as they have proved they can perform in this type of environment to a point. So, let's move on to some other points of interest.
If the Packers are going to be able to play the type of physical game the Steelers are going to demand and bring to them, they are going to have to last a full 4 quarters. That is a concern as I have seen them show signs of wearing down late in the past few games and put themselves in dangerous spots where a TD drive from the opposing teams could have tied it back up or won it for the other team. For example, Tramon Williams saved the Packers in Philly when he intercepted Vick's desperation pass in the end zone, saving a 21-16 victory and last Sunday, Sam Shields picked off a Caleb Hanie pass when the Bears were threatening to tie the score near the end of that game.
In order to have any kind of success against this Pittsburgh defense, Rodgers and his wide receiving core will have to be alert and ready to make last second changes at all times at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a master of figuring out offenses and changing up defensive looks every other play to throw you off of your game. Green Bays best hopes of keeping Rodgers upright will be to spread out five receivers and make some quick passes running some slant routes across the middle. They have had good success in doing this lately. Keeping the Steelers out of their running game will also have to be a major concern for the Green Bay defense. The longer the Packers can stay in their nickel defense, the better off they will be. This will allow cornerback Charles Woodson the freedom to move around and try to make plays all over the field.
Another plus for them is that they are fearless and very speedy on both sides of the ball. And on offense, the Packers have got Mr. Starks off to a good playoff start. In three games, Starks has a playoff-leading 70 carries. He rushed for 74 yards against the Bears, including a 4-yard touchdown that gave the Packers a 14-0 lead in the second quarter. It was Starks' first touchdown as a pro. Of course, for all of his success this postseason, James Starks hasn't seen anything like the Steelers' defense, which gave up an NFL all-time best 63 rushing yards per game in 2010. To go along with Starks, they also have a big time receiver with speed and breakaway skills in Jennings. Jennings had eight catches for the second straight week, giving him 231 receiving yards over the two games.
Just like LeBeau for Pittsburgh, Don Capers for Green Bay also employs a 3-4 defense. You'll see him constantly bringing pressure with linebacker Clay Mathews. But against the Steelers, they'll be facing an experienced, more athletic than normal QB in Mr. Roethlisberger. He has the ability to confuse opposing defenses and make them miss by consistently dipping, rolling left and right, pump faking and just make impossible throws while on the run to receivers hitting them in stride converting third and longs to keep drives alive and eat away clock. And although he might not beat you using agility and outright speed, you are more than likely not going to bring him down on first contact as he is like a linebacker/fullback/tight end all rolled into one that is definately still going to get a yard or two after initially being touched!
Big game experience....that's one thing that will make a difference here and the Steelers have it. I mean most guys on this Pittsburgh team already have a Super Bowl ring and some even have multiple! There are 18 Steelers with two Super Bowl rings from their victories in the 2005 and 2008 seasons. That includes three players who are now or were then on injured reserve. They are Max Starks, Charlie Batch and Greg Warren. The rest with two rings and a shot at three include Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, Hampton, Hoke, Brett Keisel, James Farrior, Troy Polamalu, Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, Heath Miller, Trai Essex, Chris Kemoeatu, Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden. Even coach Mike Tomlin, in just five years in Pittsburgh, is the only head coach in NFL history to coach in two Super Bowls before age 40. The only two men with Super Bowl experience on the entire Green Bay roster are DB Charles Woodson and DT Ryan Pickett, both of which were on the losing ends of their Super Bowls several years ago. So yes, you can say that the Steelers have been there and done that. They know what to expect and how to handle all that comes with this Super Bowl experience from the media days to the travels for the big game all the way to game experience and the bright lights with the roaring crowds. They will be pumped.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 all time in Super Bowls and has more wins in this game than any other organization. Pittsburgh finished number 1 in the NFL in points allowed with 14 1/2 . They were also number 2 in total defense averaging 276.8 yards per game. The Steelers also ranked number 1 in sacks compiling 48 of them. The biggest difference between the two defenses is Pittsburgh ranked number 1 against the run averaging 62.8 yards per game and the Packers were 18th overall. Pittsburgh is a solid 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games overall, including a 4-1 against the spread mark when they are the listed as underdogs in the game. Green Bay is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven playoff games when listed as the favorite. There is a very good chance the Steelers will try and grind out a win on the ground here. Rashard Mendenhall will likely get a ton of carries.
Pittsburgh's defense is also excellent in the red zone, on third down, and in turnover differential. Pittsburgh has one of the nastiest groups of linebackers in the NFL and are just simply put, the tougher team. In the win over the Jets, I was very impressed with the Steelers offensive line. They did a good job and was not called out for a single penalty. And that stat has held up for two consecutive weeks. Make all the noise you want about Green Bays opening drives but I'm willing to take my chances with the Steelers and their ability to do the same as they had a 15 play opening drive against the Jets that ate up over 9 minutes of clock and ended with a TD.
In closing, here are a few thoughts. Green Bay has looked impressive down the stretch to get to this point, you can't argue that. On the other hand, and read into it how you will, Pittsburgh has fought off everyone put in front of them as well to end up in the big game. There is a LOT of public love for the Packers, even the more reason to take the Steelers here. Super Bowl experience, despite what you here a lot of people say, does and will have a lot to do with how this game goes down. Even if it does come down to the last team that has the ball may pull out the win, I'd rather have the points by all means.
Now, I'm sure that a lot of people are going to be swayed towards the Packers after hearing the stat that most probably already know of which is this. Yes, Green Bay has not been down by more than 7 points in a game all season and hasn't been beat by more than 10 plus points but six times in the past seventy games. But, lets take it back a few more games and look at it. Pittsburgh has only been beaten by 10 plus points just eight times in the past 85 games versus the Packers twelve times by the same spread in the same amount of games. The reason for mentioning this is that I'm just not putting a whole lot of faith in theses type of stats for that reason. I'm just not too impressed with the Packers win over the Bears as they came awfully close to letting a 3rd string QB almost send them into OT. I mean if that 3rd stringer could pass all over them, what do you think Big Ben is going to do? Even if their center, Pouncey doesn't play or sees limited action, the fact that they've had 2 weeks to prepare with the backup goes a long, long way. The Steelers are the better overall team, catching points and have the more experienced head coach and defensive coordinator in this type of game. Go with Pittsburgh here!
If the Packers are going to be able to play the type of physical game the Steelers are going to demand and bring to them, they are going to have to last a full 4 quarters. That is a concern as I have seen them show signs of wearing down late in the past few games and put themselves in dangerous spots where a TD drive from the opposing teams could have tied it back up or won it for the other team. For example, Tramon Williams saved the Packers in Philly when he intercepted Vick's desperation pass in the end zone, saving a 21-16 victory and last Sunday, Sam Shields picked off a Caleb Hanie pass when the Bears were threatening to tie the score near the end of that game.
In order to have any kind of success against this Pittsburgh defense, Rodgers and his wide receiving core will have to be alert and ready to make last second changes at all times at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a master of figuring out offenses and changing up defensive looks every other play to throw you off of your game. Green Bays best hopes of keeping Rodgers upright will be to spread out five receivers and make some quick passes running some slant routes across the middle. They have had good success in doing this lately. Keeping the Steelers out of their running game will also have to be a major concern for the Green Bay defense. The longer the Packers can stay in their nickel defense, the better off they will be. This will allow cornerback Charles Woodson the freedom to move around and try to make plays all over the field.
Another plus for them is that they are fearless and very speedy on both sides of the ball. And on offense, the Packers have got Mr. Starks off to a good playoff start. In three games, Starks has a playoff-leading 70 carries. He rushed for 74 yards against the Bears, including a 4-yard touchdown that gave the Packers a 14-0 lead in the second quarter. It was Starks' first touchdown as a pro. Of course, for all of his success this postseason, James Starks hasn't seen anything like the Steelers' defense, which gave up an NFL all-time best 63 rushing yards per game in 2010. To go along with Starks, they also have a big time receiver with speed and breakaway skills in Jennings. Jennings had eight catches for the second straight week, giving him 231 receiving yards over the two games.
Just like LeBeau for Pittsburgh, Don Capers for Green Bay also employs a 3-4 defense. You'll see him constantly bringing pressure with linebacker Clay Mathews. But against the Steelers, they'll be facing an experienced, more athletic than normal QB in Mr. Roethlisberger. He has the ability to confuse opposing defenses and make them miss by consistently dipping, rolling left and right, pump faking and just make impossible throws while on the run to receivers hitting them in stride converting third and longs to keep drives alive and eat away clock. And although he might not beat you using agility and outright speed, you are more than likely not going to bring him down on first contact as he is like a linebacker/fullback/tight end all rolled into one that is definately still going to get a yard or two after initially being touched!
Big game experience....that's one thing that will make a difference here and the Steelers have it. I mean most guys on this Pittsburgh team already have a Super Bowl ring and some even have multiple! There are 18 Steelers with two Super Bowl rings from their victories in the 2005 and 2008 seasons. That includes three players who are now or were then on injured reserve. They are Max Starks, Charlie Batch and Greg Warren. The rest with two rings and a shot at three include Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, Hampton, Hoke, Brett Keisel, James Farrior, Troy Polamalu, Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, Heath Miller, Trai Essex, Chris Kemoeatu, Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden. Even coach Mike Tomlin, in just five years in Pittsburgh, is the only head coach in NFL history to coach in two Super Bowls before age 40. The only two men with Super Bowl experience on the entire Green Bay roster are DB Charles Woodson and DT Ryan Pickett, both of which were on the losing ends of their Super Bowls several years ago. So yes, you can say that the Steelers have been there and done that. They know what to expect and how to handle all that comes with this Super Bowl experience from the media days to the travels for the big game all the way to game experience and the bright lights with the roaring crowds. They will be pumped.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 all time in Super Bowls and has more wins in this game than any other organization. Pittsburgh finished number 1 in the NFL in points allowed with 14 1/2 . They were also number 2 in total defense averaging 276.8 yards per game. The Steelers also ranked number 1 in sacks compiling 48 of them. The biggest difference between the two defenses is Pittsburgh ranked number 1 against the run averaging 62.8 yards per game and the Packers were 18th overall. Pittsburgh is a solid 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games overall, including a 4-1 against the spread mark when they are the listed as underdogs in the game. Green Bay is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven playoff games when listed as the favorite. There is a very good chance the Steelers will try and grind out a win on the ground here. Rashard Mendenhall will likely get a ton of carries.
Pittsburgh's defense is also excellent in the red zone, on third down, and in turnover differential. Pittsburgh has one of the nastiest groups of linebackers in the NFL and are just simply put, the tougher team. In the win over the Jets, I was very impressed with the Steelers offensive line. They did a good job and was not called out for a single penalty. And that stat has held up for two consecutive weeks. Make all the noise you want about Green Bays opening drives but I'm willing to take my chances with the Steelers and their ability to do the same as they had a 15 play opening drive against the Jets that ate up over 9 minutes of clock and ended with a TD.
In closing, here are a few thoughts. Green Bay has looked impressive down the stretch to get to this point, you can't argue that. On the other hand, and read into it how you will, Pittsburgh has fought off everyone put in front of them as well to end up in the big game. There is a LOT of public love for the Packers, even the more reason to take the Steelers here. Super Bowl experience, despite what you here a lot of people say, does and will have a lot to do with how this game goes down. Even if it does come down to the last team that has the ball may pull out the win, I'd rather have the points by all means.
Now, I'm sure that a lot of people are going to be swayed towards the Packers after hearing the stat that most probably already know of which is this. Yes, Green Bay has not been down by more than 7 points in a game all season and hasn't been beat by more than 10 plus points but six times in the past seventy games. But, lets take it back a few more games and look at it. Pittsburgh has only been beaten by 10 plus points just eight times in the past 85 games versus the Packers twelve times by the same spread in the same amount of games. The reason for mentioning this is that I'm just not putting a whole lot of faith in theses type of stats for that reason. I'm just not too impressed with the Packers win over the Bears as they came awfully close to letting a 3rd string QB almost send them into OT. I mean if that 3rd stringer could pass all over them, what do you think Big Ben is going to do? Even if their center, Pouncey doesn't play or sees limited action, the fact that they've had 2 weeks to prepare with the backup goes a long, long way. The Steelers are the better overall team, catching points and have the more experienced head coach and defensive coordinator in this type of game. Go with Pittsburgh here!
Sunday NCAAB Play- GC
On Sunday the free NCAAB Play is on St. Peters. Game 819 at 2:00 eastern. St. Peters has the better numbers here. They are 6-3 after allowing 60 or less and 6-2 off a conference win. In the series they have won the last meetings vs Canisius over the last 3 years. Canisius is 3-18 after allowing 60 or less including 0-5 this season. When they come in off a win they are a paltry 3-15. They have lost 8 of 10 vs winning teams and are 8-32 long term vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. Look for St. Peters to get the cash as a small dog here today. On Sunday I have the 22-0 Super bowl system winner that's guaranteed with 4 days. I also have the Big 10 Game of the Month that has a big Power system and 2 100% Power angles. For the Bonus Play take St. Peters. GC
On Sunday the free NCAAB Play is on St. Peters. Game 819 at 2:00 eastern. St. Peters has the better numbers here. They are 6-3 after allowing 60 or less and 6-2 off a conference win. In the series they have won the last meetings vs Canisius over the last 3 years. Canisius is 3-18 after allowing 60 or less including 0-5 this season. When they come in off a win they are a paltry 3-15. They have lost 8 of 10 vs winning teams and are 8-32 long term vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. Look for St. Peters to get the cash as a small dog here today. On Sunday I have the 22-0 Super bowl system winner that's guaranteed with 4 days. I also have the Big 10 Game of the Month that has a big Power system and 2 100% Power angles. For the Bonus Play take St. Peters. GC
Services through post 125
Green Bay(32) Over (9)
10* Burns….Sports Book Guru Uncle Ceasar
Michael Anthony ML ….Robcat Teddy Covers
John Harrison…Outlaw Spts Advisors John Harrison
Dble Dragon ML….4 PPP Dave Blezow
Prediction Machine…EZ Winners Chris Shaw
Teddy Covers Cappers Access
Wunderdog ML Keith Line
50 Sports Handi King Sports Book Guru
15* JSM Keith Glantz
Doug Williams
25* Jack Jones
Big (Loser) Al
Big Fella
Dave Blezow
Chris Shaw
Hondo
Cappers Access
SB Prof
Bettors World
The Unfair Advantage
Joel Tyson
2000 Trace Adams
Karl Garrett
Mighty Quinn
Football Crusher
Best Picks Handicapping
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10* Ness (Perfect Storm)….Johnny Chang Prediciton Machine
30 Lem Banker…..Unabomer Randy Bruce Super Bet Dominator
IC…Guaranteed Sports Picks 7* IC
Football Jesus…..50 Sean Micheals 2000 Chris Jordan
1000 Chris Jordan….. 200 A Redd 4* Hammer the Book
4* Hammer the Book…. Michael Cannon Bang the Book
2500 Rob Rosenhaus….Bobby Valentine Lock of the Day
Bang the Book….Wayne Root NL 2* Irwin Spts
3* Irwin Spts….. Psychic Hondo
Fiest…..Tony Diamond 4* Jim Boyd
Market Watch…..Robert Ferringo 10* Maddux
Sharp Ftball Analysis…. Jeff Benton The Unfair Advantage
5 Jim Boyd…..***** 40 Chuck Obrien
10* Maddux…Derek Mancini Johnny Chang
Sports Network….Keith Glantz Root (Mill)
Richie Carrera ….50 Budin Crew Mighty Quinn
Advantage Sports Best Picks Handicapping
Tom Stryker 25 Kelso
Justin Cover
2 Min Warning
Al Demarco
Andy Fanelli
Brett Atkins
Green Bay(32) Over (9)
10* Burns….Sports Book Guru Uncle Ceasar
Michael Anthony ML ….Robcat Teddy Covers
John Harrison…Outlaw Spts Advisors John Harrison
Dble Dragon ML….4 PPP Dave Blezow
Prediction Machine…EZ Winners Chris Shaw
Teddy Covers Cappers Access
Wunderdog ML Keith Line
50 Sports Handi King Sports Book Guru
15* JSM Keith Glantz
Doug Williams
25* Jack Jones
Big (Loser) Al
Big Fella
Dave Blezow
Chris Shaw
Hondo
Cappers Access
SB Prof
Bettors World
The Unfair Advantage
Joel Tyson
2000 Trace Adams
Karl Garrett
Mighty Quinn
Football Crusher
Best Picks Handicapping
100 Kelso
Pitt (39) Under (18)
10* Ness (Perfect Storm)….Johnny Chang Prediciton Machine
30 Lem Banker…..Unabomer Randy Bruce Super Bet Dominator
IC…Guaranteed Sports Picks 7* IC
Football Jesus…..50 Sean Micheals 2000 Chris Jordan
1000 Chris Jordan….. 200 A Redd 4* Hammer the Book
4* Hammer the Book…. Michael Cannon Bang the Book
2500 Rob Rosenhaus….Bobby Valentine Lock of the Day
Bang the Book….Wayne Root NL 2* Irwin Spts
3* Irwin Spts….. Psychic Hondo
Fiest…..Tony Diamond 4* Jim Boyd
Market Watch…..Robert Ferringo 10* Maddux
Sharp Ftball Analysis…. Jeff Benton The Unfair Advantage
5 Jim Boyd…..***** 40 Chuck Obrien
10* Maddux…Derek Mancini Johnny Chang
Sports Network….Keith Glantz Root (Mill)
Richie Carrera ….50 Budin Crew Mighty Quinn
Advantage Sports Best Picks Handicapping
Tom Stryker 25 Kelso
Justin Cover
2 Min Warning
Al Demarco
Andy Fanelli
Brett Atkins
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