jeff benton
Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton Super Bowl winner ...
50 Dime NFL winner on the Steelers plus the points against the Packers in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is a 2½-point underaog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore, but that 2½ is at “even money” or even “plus money.” I highly encoeurage you to shop around and see if you can find the Steelers at +3 (even if you have to play extra vig). With money pouring in on Green Bay for the last two weeks, there’s a very good chance we’ll see the number tick up to 3 at some point today. If you can’t get +3 and you have the ability to purhhase the half-point, go ahead and do so.
ANALYSIS
Going to keep this short, sweet and simple, and I’ll start by letting the numbers do the talking:
10-2. The Steelers’ playoff record in the Ben Roethlisberger era. (One of the losses? 31-29 to the Jaguars, who kicked the winning field goal with 37 seconds to play).
9-1. The Steelers’ ATS mark in their last 10 playoff games (incluaing cashing as a 2½-point home ‘dog in the two-point loss to Jacksonville in January 2008)
2-0. The Steelers’ SU and ATS mark in two Super Bowls in the Roethlisberger era.
6-1. The Steelers’ SU mark in seven all-time Super Bowl apepearances, going 5-2 ATS (they were favored in five of those six games, and they cashed the only time they were an underdog).
8-1. The Steelers’ SU record in their last nine games coming into this contest. The one loss was a 22-17 setback to the Jets on Dec. 19, a defeat Pittsburgh avenged in the AFC title game – and the only reason the Jets got that W was because of a kickoff return for a touchdown and a fourth-quarter safety. Take those two plays away and Pittsburgh is riding a nine-game winning streak right now!
12.2. The Steelers average points per game allowed during their current 8-1 run.
30.8. The Steelers average points per game scored in their last four games, all wins. (Going back 11 games, they’re averaging 24.8 ppg, and since Roethlisberger returned from his suspension, Pittsburgh has scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 games).
34-16-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 51 games as an underdog.
16-5-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 22 games as an underdog of three points or less.
4-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last five games as a playoff pup.
Need I go on?
Look, guys, I’m not saying the Packers don’t deserve to be here; any team that wins three straight playoff road games and five straight “elimination” games absolhtely belongs. Nor am I saying the Steelers are going to win this Super Bowl by three touchdowns (honestly, I’ll be shocked if it’s decided by double digits). What am I saying is Pittsburgh has all the ingredients you want: a veteran, been-there, done-that quarterback (can’t say that about Green Bay), a power running game that can get tough yards and chew up clock (can’t say that about Green Bay), a dominating defense (Green Bay has that) that is impossible to run against (can’t say that about Green Bay), a head coach whom you know won’t wilt under the bright lights (can’t say that about Packers head man Mike McCarthy), and a lengthy, inarguable Super Bowl pedigree that includes two championships in the last four years.
And on top of all this you’re giving me points (when the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run in the Super Bowl, cashing in each of the last three)??? Three words: I’ll take it!
It doesn’t figure to be easy – and like the win over the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, it might come down to another last-minute Big Ben drive – but Pittsburgh will capture its record seventh Super Bowl title with a 24-20 victory.
Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton Super Bowl winner ...
50 Dime NFL winner on the Steelers plus the points against the Packers in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is a 2½-point underaog across the board both here in Vegas and offshore, but that 2½ is at “even money” or even “plus money.” I highly encoeurage you to shop around and see if you can find the Steelers at +3 (even if you have to play extra vig). With money pouring in on Green Bay for the last two weeks, there’s a very good chance we’ll see the number tick up to 3 at some point today. If you can’t get +3 and you have the ability to purhhase the half-point, go ahead and do so.
ANALYSIS
Going to keep this short, sweet and simple, and I’ll start by letting the numbers do the talking:
10-2. The Steelers’ playoff record in the Ben Roethlisberger era. (One of the losses? 31-29 to the Jaguars, who kicked the winning field goal with 37 seconds to play).
9-1. The Steelers’ ATS mark in their last 10 playoff games (incluaing cashing as a 2½-point home ‘dog in the two-point loss to Jacksonville in January 2008)
2-0. The Steelers’ SU and ATS mark in two Super Bowls in the Roethlisberger era.
6-1. The Steelers’ SU mark in seven all-time Super Bowl apepearances, going 5-2 ATS (they were favored in five of those six games, and they cashed the only time they were an underdog).
8-1. The Steelers’ SU record in their last nine games coming into this contest. The one loss was a 22-17 setback to the Jets on Dec. 19, a defeat Pittsburgh avenged in the AFC title game – and the only reason the Jets got that W was because of a kickoff return for a touchdown and a fourth-quarter safety. Take those two plays away and Pittsburgh is riding a nine-game winning streak right now!
12.2. The Steelers average points per game allowed during their current 8-1 run.
30.8. The Steelers average points per game scored in their last four games, all wins. (Going back 11 games, they’re averaging 24.8 ppg, and since Roethlisberger returned from his suspension, Pittsburgh has scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 games).
34-16-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 51 games as an underdog.
16-5-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last 22 games as an underdog of three points or less.
4-1. The Steelers ATS record in their last five games as a playoff pup.
Need I go on?
Look, guys, I’m not saying the Packers don’t deserve to be here; any team that wins three straight playoff road games and five straight “elimination” games absolhtely belongs. Nor am I saying the Steelers are going to win this Super Bowl by three touchdowns (honestly, I’ll be shocked if it’s decided by double digits). What am I saying is Pittsburgh has all the ingredients you want: a veteran, been-there, done-that quarterback (can’t say that about Green Bay), a power running game that can get tough yards and chew up clock (can’t say that about Green Bay), a dominating defense (Green Bay has that) that is impossible to run against (can’t say that about Green Bay), a head coach whom you know won’t wilt under the bright lights (can’t say that about Packers head man Mike McCarthy), and a lengthy, inarguable Super Bowl pedigree that includes two championships in the last four years.
And on top of all this you’re giving me points (when the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run in the Super Bowl, cashing in each of the last three)??? Three words: I’ll take it!
It doesn’t figure to be easy – and like the win over the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, it might come down to another last-minute Big Ben drive – but Pittsburgh will capture its record seventh Super Bowl title with a 24-20 victory.
D eano
Super Bowl Pick: Steelers +3 (Reg)
PROP BETS: Play them all 2*
Total Punts by both teams (9.5)
*Play the OVER +100
Will the Steelers score a touchdown in the first quarter?
*Play YES +115
Will the Packers score a touchdown in the first quarter?
*Play YES +105
Will the game be tied after 0-0 (After XP or 2pnt)?
*Play YES -105
First turnover of the game will be?
*Play FUMBLE +110
Super Bowl Pick: Steelers +3 (Reg)
PROP BETS: Play them all 2*
Total Punts by both teams (9.5)
*Play the OVER +100
Will the Steelers score a touchdown in the first quarter?
*Play YES +115
Will the Packers score a touchdown in the first quarter?
*Play YES +105
Will the game be tied after 0-0 (After XP or 2pnt)?
*Play YES -105
First turnover of the game will be?
*Play FUMBLE +110
Here is an update of the services I've been tracking in basketball and hockey. These records do not have any playoff football in them. I also want to warn everyone, the Superbowl is one game and many services with using their "marketing" skills to hype up the game as a GOY or Playoff GOY or TOY. Play it as you would any normal game. My one prop if you can get it is, The broadcasters will mention Favre over 2.5 times.
Good Luck today.
1.Arlon 16-22, 6-11r
2. A Redd 18-16
3. Billy Coleman 8-6
4. Burns 71-39, 19-20r, 5-2 yesterday
5. Cal Spts 24-29, 4* 15-12
6. Cappers Access 10-21, 5-8r
7. Crown City 6-8
8. JB 11-10
9. ****** Covers 33-33
10. Johny C 18-21
11. JSM 15-16, his chase system is not working too well.
12. Lang 6-9, 30r
13. Kelso 14-25, 7-10
14. M Lawrence 13-13, 4* 4-1run
15. Ness 10-9, 10*4-1
16. Nover 4-9, 1-6r
17. Root 11-17
18. Sammy P (nhl 6-8, 20* 3-1)
19. Sports Handicapper 37-24, 23-23, 7-7
20. SB Prof 10-7, 2-5r
21. Ted Covers, 20-24, 11-15r, 5-4r
22. Don Wallace 11-9
23. College Funds 5-1 (13-3 uncomfirmed run)
24. Northcoasts 5* Featured Handicapper 2-3
MG Man
Good Luck today.
1.Arlon 16-22, 6-11r
2. A Redd 18-16
3. Billy Coleman 8-6
4. Burns 71-39, 19-20r, 5-2 yesterday
5. Cal Spts 24-29, 4* 15-12
6. Cappers Access 10-21, 5-8r
7. Crown City 6-8
8. JB 11-10
9. ****** Covers 33-33
10. Johny C 18-21
11. JSM 15-16, his chase system is not working too well.
12. Lang 6-9, 30r
13. Kelso 14-25, 7-10
14. M Lawrence 13-13, 4* 4-1run
15. Ness 10-9, 10*4-1
16. Nover 4-9, 1-6r
17. Root 11-17
18. Sammy P (nhl 6-8, 20* 3-1)
19. Sports Handicapper 37-24, 23-23, 7-7
20. SB Prof 10-7, 2-5r
21. Ted Covers, 20-24, 11-15r, 5-4r
22. Don Wallace 11-9
23. College Funds 5-1 (13-3 uncomfirmed run)
24. Northcoasts 5* Featured Handicapper 2-3
MG Man
It’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers, Super Bowl XLV from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Here is the official NFL handicapper betting odds preview. Green Bay is up to a three-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Here is the OffshoreInsiders Super Bowl petting breakdown.
Pittsburgh is 14-4 straight up and 12-6 to the number. They are .500 in the over/under category, as nine have gone over and nine have gone under.
Green Bay is 13-6 straight up, 12-7 to the number, going under 12-7. As far as recent streaks, Pittsburgh has covered six of seven, going over three straight. The Pack are a stunning 10-3 in their last 13 against the sportsbooks number.
Pittsburgh has an average running game, but spectacular passing squad. They get 4.0 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, but get 7.4 yards per pass to 6.4 and 5.7 yards per play to 5.4. They get 23.9 points per game to teams that normally allow 21.
Defensively, they are extremely stout, especially against the run. Pittsburgh allows just 15.3 points per game to squads that normally accumulate 21.5 on 3.0 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1, 5.7 yards per pass to 6.4 and 4.7 yards per play to 5.3.
Though professional gamblers exploit ratings vs. rankings, Pittsburgh dominates both as they allow just 62 yards per game rushing against units that normally get 115.
Green Bay has an explosive offense, more so passing. They average 25.2 points per game versus squads that allocate an average of 21.7.
Breaking down the key numbers, they get 3.8 yards per carry to 4.1, but a very noteworthy 7.7 yards per pass to 6.5 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.
Likewise, on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers are better in the passing game than the running unit. The Cheeseheads are allowing just 15.3 points per game to squads that normally accumulate 22.4.
The key indicators tell us they allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.2, but 5.9 passing yards per attempt to 6.5 and just 5.3 yards per play to foes who average 5.5.
OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Sunday pick against the spread and it’s on the Boston Celtics (-4.5) hosting Orlando.
Reasoning: The Magic are still a very good NBA team, but they have struggled a lot of times this season and are not as well rounded as the Celtics. Pretty much overall, Stan Van’s boys are just not nearly as good right now and have regressed a little bit when compared to the last few seasons.
Dwight Howard is obviously a superstar and a guy who will dominate inside, but with Kendrick Perkins back and with Shaq in Celtic green there are at least some big bodies on the C’s that will bang and use up their allotted fouls if necessary. To be able to get Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Garnett and the rest of Doc’s squad at home and only lay a handful is more than enough for me.
It’s not like this Orlando team has exactly rounded into shape after the trades. They did look a little better at one point after the sluggish start with Richardson, Turkoglu and others, but they haven’t been very magical of late after dropping three of their last five games.
Orlando has been beating up the bad teams like Washington, Cleveland, Toronto and Indiana, but every time they have had to step it up against major competition, they have not been able to do so. The final score may have said four the other day, but if you watched the game you saw how LeBron and the Heat were the much better team and that game was in Orlando.
The Magic also just lost at Memphis and at Chicago. Something is a little off with this team, whether it be the lack of size, the new pieces not fully fitting or just the team getting a little worse, I don’t fully know. But until they play better in a spot like this, I am glad to lay a few points with quite possibly the best team in the entire NBA in the Celtics.
Over the last few seasons and the other day at in Los Angeles this Boston squad has been able to raise their game and play big. Today will be another example of just that.
Top expert pick on this game: Boston Celtics from Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders
Pittsburgh is 14-4 straight up and 12-6 to the number. They are .500 in the over/under category, as nine have gone over and nine have gone under.
Green Bay is 13-6 straight up, 12-7 to the number, going under 12-7. As far as recent streaks, Pittsburgh has covered six of seven, going over three straight. The Pack are a stunning 10-3 in their last 13 against the sportsbooks number.
Pittsburgh has an average running game, but spectacular passing squad. They get 4.0 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, but get 7.4 yards per pass to 6.4 and 5.7 yards per play to 5.4. They get 23.9 points per game to teams that normally allow 21.
Defensively, they are extremely stout, especially against the run. Pittsburgh allows just 15.3 points per game to squads that normally accumulate 21.5 on 3.0 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1, 5.7 yards per pass to 6.4 and 4.7 yards per play to 5.3.
Though professional gamblers exploit ratings vs. rankings, Pittsburgh dominates both as they allow just 62 yards per game rushing against units that normally get 115.
Green Bay has an explosive offense, more so passing. They average 25.2 points per game versus squads that allocate an average of 21.7.
Breaking down the key numbers, they get 3.8 yards per carry to 4.1, but a very noteworthy 7.7 yards per pass to 6.5 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.
Likewise, on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers are better in the passing game than the running unit. The Cheeseheads are allowing just 15.3 points per game to squads that normally accumulate 22.4.
The key indicators tell us they allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.2, but 5.9 passing yards per attempt to 6.5 and just 5.3 yards per play to foes who average 5.5.
OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Sunday pick against the spread and it’s on the Boston Celtics (-4.5) hosting Orlando.
Reasoning: The Magic are still a very good NBA team, but they have struggled a lot of times this season and are not as well rounded as the Celtics. Pretty much overall, Stan Van’s boys are just not nearly as good right now and have regressed a little bit when compared to the last few seasons.
Dwight Howard is obviously a superstar and a guy who will dominate inside, but with Kendrick Perkins back and with Shaq in Celtic green there are at least some big bodies on the C’s that will bang and use up their allotted fouls if necessary. To be able to get Rondo, Pierce, Allen, Garnett and the rest of Doc’s squad at home and only lay a handful is more than enough for me.
It’s not like this Orlando team has exactly rounded into shape after the trades. They did look a little better at one point after the sluggish start with Richardson, Turkoglu and others, but they haven’t been very magical of late after dropping three of their last five games.
Orlando has been beating up the bad teams like Washington, Cleveland, Toronto and Indiana, but every time they have had to step it up against major competition, they have not been able to do so. The final score may have said four the other day, but if you watched the game you saw how LeBron and the Heat were the much better team and that game was in Orlando.
The Magic also just lost at Memphis and at Chicago. Something is a little off with this team, whether it be the lack of size, the new pieces not fully fitting or just the team getting a little worse, I don’t fully know. But until they play better in a spot like this, I am glad to lay a few points with quite possibly the best team in the entire NBA in the Celtics.
Over the last few seasons and the other day at in Los Angeles this Boston squad has been able to raise their game and play big. Today will be another example of just that.
Top expert pick on this game: Boston Celtics from Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders
Selections
10:36:55 AM
2-Minute Warning
Al DeMarco
Andy Fanelli
Anthony Redd
Brett Atkins
Chuck O'Brien
Craig Davis
Derek Mancini
Jay McNeil
Joel Tyson
Matt Rivers
Steven Budin CEO
Trace Adams
2-Minute Warning
Sunday's Play
10 DIME CONSENSUS CLUB
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Pittsburgh
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176-128-4 roll - all releases
27-13 in college football this season
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88-56-3 last 147 basketball selections
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Al DeMarco
Sunday's Plays
20 Dime Play on Pittsburgh*plus the points agaiast*Green Bay*in the Super Bowl.*As I release this selecdtion at*7:00 PM Pacific on Saturday evening, the Steelers*are a solid*+2 1/2*point favorrte at the majority of sportsbooks I check here in*Vegas and offshore. I do see a few +3 numbers offshore, but they're few and far between. Absolutely go ahead and buy*UP the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance if you get the Steelers priced anywhere between*2 1/2*and 4**points today.
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5 Dime Play on Pittsburgh on the moneyline. I see the Steelers priced anywhere from +120 to +130 in Vegas and offshore. If you watched my Video Report earlier this week you may recall I mentioned the biggest mistake I ever made in betting the Super Bowl was taking the Giants against the Patriots in 2008 and not wagering on New York on the moneyline as a huge underdog. Suffice to say, I've learned my lesson and getting Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 is worth the additional investment,
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Today's Note
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Upping the ante with my 2nd Biggest Football Play of the Season today, an ultra-rare 20 Dime release. I've had just*three other 20 Dimers and*they were all*winners, my 2011 Conference Championship Game of the Year on Pittsburgh over NY two Sundays ago, my Wildcard Game of the Year on Baltimore over KC three Sundays ago and my Rose Bowl lock with Wisconsin's cover*against TCU.
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This play is stronger than the 15 dime plays I'm 33-20-2 with in the NFL the past three years combined, including the Steelers over the Ravens*three Saturdays agao.
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This play is bigger than the 15 dime basketball plays I'm 21-10 with in the NBA and college the past two seasons.
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This play is bigger than the two 15 dime college bowl*winners I had on*Tulsa outright as a 10-point dog at Hawaii and Oklahoma State 38-10 over Arizona.
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I love this game today. Could I lose it? Absolutely. After all, this is GAMBLING and there are no guarantees. But I've got to play it exactly for how strongly I feel about it.
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I can live with losses; I can't live with regret from not playing a game the way it should be played and today's Super Bowl*is worthy of being my 2nd biggest play of the football season, one that matches my 20 Dime winner on the Steelers over NY two Sundays ago.
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Am I telling you to mortage the house or take food off your table? Absolutely not.*But, again, I love the game and I'm playing it this way.
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Now a few words about today's game.....
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One of the biggest mistakes gamblers make – especially the huge number of amateurs (i.e. newbies) that wager on the Super Bowl – is that they make this one game their biggest bet of the season when it should be viewed as just another game.
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Seriously, this game is no more important and no bigger than a Thursday night game in October or a Sunday afternoon game in Week 5.
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Why you ask? Well, one reason is that you generally get no line value with this contest because of the two weeks of non-stop media hype and over-analysis. As a handicapper, I'm always looking for a handful of games that the oddsmakers have seemingly overlooked, games where the lines are simply bad. It's easy to find those games on a Saturday with 70 contests on the docket or to spot one or two of them on any given Sunday. But for this game, the line is as sharp as it can be.
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The other problem is that there are three types of gamblers that wager on the Super Bowl. The first is the diehard player, the guy who has been betting all season long. The second is the guy who may have bet at one time earlier in the season, gotten himself buried, and is now coming out of retirement to make one big wager to recoup his losses of long ago. The third is the "casual" gambler who comes out of the woodwork for this one game. The first type knows what he's doing; the latter two don't and they are most likely the ones to get themselves into the deep financial abyss from which there is no escape.
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Despite my warnings, however, I know most of you are playing this game like there is no tomorrow. But you can't say I didn't warn you.
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Is this a rare 20 dime release for me? Absolutely. But remember that my biggest plays in the NFL are 30 dimers. I've had six of them the past three years and won all six. Today's game simply doesn't warrant a 30 dime release; thus the 20 dime rating instead.
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As for the game, I'm 12-4-2 the past 18 seasons with my Super Bowl releases, winning six of the last eight years.
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Today's Analysis
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You would think the Packers were the greatest team ever to set foot on the field for a Super Bowl with the way the public jumped on them here in Vegas and with so many of the national pundits hitching their horse*to their bandwagon.*As you have heard ad-infinitum the past 14 days, Green Bay is so much "faster" on offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm playing inside a dome on a fast track. And the Packers defense? Well by golly from what I've read, seen and heard, they are the re-incarnation of Miami's No-Name defense with a touch of Pittsburgh's own Steeler Curtain unit from the 70's with a hint of the Ravens at their prime all thrown in together.
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Please, give me a break.
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Ben Rothlisberger, that other guy playing quarterback today.... who cares that he's won two Super Bowls already and is 10-2 SU (9-3 ATS) in the playoffs.
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You say a team that has that slowpoke Mike Wallace at receiver with his 4.3 speed isn't explosive? I guess those 55 points rung up against the Ravens and Jets in the playoffs don't account for a hill of beans.
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Pittsburgh had the league's 2nd ranked total defense in the regular season? You don't say. Oh, and they were No. 1 against the run, No. 1 in quarterback sacks and No. 1 in fewest points allowed. And here I thought the Broncos or Texans were in the Super Bowl based on all I read about how great that Green Bay defense is compar%K1%d to the Steelers.
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Oops, I forgot all about Rodgers incredible 383-yard, 3-TD performance in that 37-36 last-second loss at Pittsburgh two Decembers ago. Must not matter that Big Ben passed for a career-high 503 yards and three scores. Same goes with the fact that the Steelers were up 24-14 heading into the fourth in a game they were minus their defensive leader, Troy Polamalu.
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Putting aside my sarcasm for a minute, I've got to tell you that when the Steelers dominated the Jets in the first half of the AFC championship game two Sundays ago - a game that I had a 20 dimer on Pittsburgh - I figured the Terrible Towel-wavers would be favored by 2 1/2 against Green Bay, especially considering how poorly the Packers played in the second half against Chicago's third-string quarterback in the AFC title tilt. So, when the cheeseheads (way to piss off all my Wisconsin clients in one fell swoop), went off as the favorite, I was shocked.
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If you've followed me over the years, you know I've made a sizable fortune riding the Steelers with Rothlisberger at the helm; he owes me nothing while I should be sendidng him my gratitude after every big winner. Getting points in*the Super Bowl, a game he's already won twice, is a no-brainer to me.
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Want some stats? How about dogs being 7-2 ATS in the last nine title games. How about the Steelers being 8-2 ATS as a dog the past three years, including 3-1 this season. How about Rothlisberger being 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS catching points. How about Rodgers being just 5-7 SU and ATS against teams with winning
percentages of .700 or better, including 2-3 SU and 1-4 when laying points.
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Let's examine the paths these two combatants took to reach today's game. The Packers beat Philly and Atlanta, two teams that peaked too early for a variety of reasons. Then they barely held off the Bears and their third string quarterback in the conference title game. The Steelers, on the other hand, held Baltimore in check and crushrd New York in the postseason. And don't forget how dominating they were against the Jets as they were up 24-3 at halftime with commanding edges in first downs (16-5) and total yards (231-50)
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For today's game, I don't think the Packers get anything going on the ground, just like Baltimore and New York couldn't. At the same time, I believe the Steelers have success running the ball, using long time-consuming drives to keep Rodgers on the sideline. As for Big Ben, I think the Packers get to him often enough, but he's so big and so surprisingly nimble that he makes big plays happen. And defensively James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will put enough pressure on Rodgers.
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I like the Steelers to win this one outright 27-23
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Andy Fanelli
Sunday's Selections
Fanell-Kid all set to smack yer bookie with this Super Bowl winner. My 75 Dime side selaction is to take the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points agdainst the Green Bay Packers. My 30 Dime total relrse is a play on OVER THE TOTAL in Super Bowl XLV. Keep reading below for my 8 additional*prop plays.
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The Steelers as a 3 pt dog? You got me. Over 44 1/2 or so points*on an indoor fast track in a Super Bowl filled with TV timeouts?..again you got me. We all remember the scorefaest when these two teams met last and we all remember who won that game.
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In fact I can load you up with past analysis just like every major sports program in this country already has. Or I can simply tell you the fodllowing: Defense wins Super Bowls.
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This Steelers team is going to pound Rodgers and expose Green Bay as a one dimensional team. They will not be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh.
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Nobody can!
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Rodgers will be running for his life and watch how many HOLDING CALLS Green Bay racks up. I'd say at least 4 in this game. Green Bay will rack up yards, yes...But they will fumble. And like the game agrinst the Bears that sent them into the playoffs...It may seem like Green Bay is going up and down the field but the points will not be on the board. I expect Green Bay to get a late TD to push this game Over the total but it will be too late, and Pittsburgh will have the game in hand.
NOW FOR THE PROPS:
I HAVE SOME STEALS IN THIS SUPERBOWL. And while I can't guarantee that these will all hit, in fact I promise they won't ALL HIT...I can assure you that the likelihood of them hitting is greater than the price being asked. These plays will make you the talk of the party, and separate you from all the pretenders on amateur night. And make no mistake...This is gambling amateur night... But Fanelli's got your back.
prop #1
1st team to kick off -- Take Pitt -130 on this one. Pitt is going to defer and give the Pack the ball if they win the toss. Green Bay on the other hand I'm not so sure about. I think they want to get that ball into Rodgers hands early, get him settled in and try to force the Steelers game plan with an early score. Either way with this toss I'd say it's very probable Pitt is kicking to start this game.
prop # 1 -- Pittsburgh to kick off -- 10 dime play
prop # 2 -- PITTSBURGH over 21 total points
For reasons stated in my game analysis. I expect a few short fields for Pittsburgh after turnovers and I expect Roethlisberger to have a strong game.
Prop # 2 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh over 21 total points
Prop # 3
Pittsburgh to score first and win the game + 200
Neither Pittsburgh winning or scoring first is difficult to imagine. Why not take the +200 money line on this?
Prop # 3 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh to score first and win the game.
PROP # 4
Team to record the first sack. Like I said earlier I expect the Packers to get the ball first which instantly increases the likelihood of Pittsburgh recording the first sack as I don’t see GB scoring on the initial drive either. The fact that Pittsburgh is +105 TO RECORD THE FIRST SACK OF THE GAME is a STEAL.
5 dime play -- Steelers to record first sack
Prop # 5
The first TD of game -- Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Mendenhall...These are all quality picks and make the juice worth the squeeze. Roethlisberger on a 1 yd sneak seems extremely possible and at +1500 I gotta’ get myself in on that. Also seems pretty probable to me that Mendenhall (+450) could get in and a roll out pass to Hines Ward (+900) is an extraordinary value as well.
Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Hines Ward +900 -- 1 dime play
Mendenhall +450 -- 1 dime play
Prop # 6
LAST TD OF THE GAME
I am not a psychic but I’m as close as you are going to get when it comes to Super Bowls. I am 7-0 on sides the last 7 years and that is documented. Well, for whatever reason I keep seeing an important QB sneak for a TD in this game. Maybe it’s because both of these QB’s can use their legs or are hard to take down...But I do see a nice value on the Last TD of this game being scored by Rodgers or Roethlisberger.
Last td -- Ben Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Last td -- Aaron Rodgers +1200 -- 1 dime play
PROP #7
1ST POINTS OF GAME.
THE BEST PLAY HERE is the Steelers on a rushing TD. At +300 I love this play. And of course I'll be rooting for Mendenhall or Roethlisberger to score it.
3 dime play -- Pitttsburgh rushing TD as first score
PROP # 8
PITTSBURGH BY 7-10 PTS AT HALFTIME.
MY FINAL PROP PLAY SEEMS LIKE A LONGSHOT BUT I ASSURE YOU IT’S NOT. THIS ONE will give your bookie fits at halftime. I want you to play Pittsburgh to be winning by 7-10 POINTS at halftime as a +600 money line prop. I see this game as 17-10 pitt at halftime and I can find no greater value on the board to back this.
3 dime play -- Pittsburgh by 7-10 points at halftime. NOTE: Pitt winning by 7,8,9,10 pays out.
Well AS PROMISED, Fanelli COMES with guns blazing today...Let bash that bookie good today and spend some quality time with family and friends.
As always I will see you warriors on the other side!!!
Anthony Redd
Sunday's Card
200*Dime*Release on the Pittsburgh Steelers as the underdag over the Green Bay Packers. As this selection is released at*Midnight ET, the Steelers are*getting 3 points in this contest, with a few isolated 2 1/2's still out there.
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50*Dime Release on the Under in tonight's Pittsburgh-Green Bay game. The total is currdently sitting between 44 1/2 to 45 depending on where you shop.
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50 Dime*Release on the Magic as the road dog over the Celtics. Orlando is currently gerting 4 1/2 points in this contest.
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I'm*going for the jugular*Super Sunday with*the*1stEver 200 DIME Play of my Career!
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This is*BY FAR the*BIGGEST NFL release of my career, so basically what I'm saying is: missing this play is not an option!
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I'm*8-3roll*with 100 Dime football releases, college and pro combined, winning the last one in each sport!
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And this release is TWICE as strong as those!
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When I'm winning, you're winning because I am a Professional*Gambler who spends his every waking moment here in the Vegas sportsbooks. Just ask the IRS; it's been my listed occupation on my tax returns for 15 years.
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Don't miss the boat as I*expose*the oddsmakers with*the*1st Ever 200 DIME Play of my Career and myStrongest*NFL Play Ever today! I can make you money - just like I make myself - but only if you let me.
Brett Atkins
Sunday
Today brings us my 50 Dime NFL Game of the Year as I love the Pittsburgh Steelers in this one to get inside the number, if not win it outri%k1%ht, against the Green Bay Packers. As I releadse this play, and as it's been since opening, the Steelers are 2 1/2-point underdogs in this one both here in Vegas and at ofrshore locations.
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ANALYSIS
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I know the Packers are the glamoraus pick to win this thing and everybody is excited about QB Aaron Rodgers and how good the offense has looked in the playoffs, but they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers. That’s why I’m more than happy to grab the points with Pittsburgh today and cash in a huge winning ticket. The Steelers have won eight of their last nine games, giving up just 12.2 points per game during that run. Their lone loss in that streak was a 22-17 loss to the Jets on Dec. 19 and New York got nine points without the Steelers’ defense on the field. Offensivedly, the Steelers have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last four and 24.8 points per contest in the last 11. Since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned to the lineup from suspension, they have scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 contests. Roethlisberger has shown he’s a big-game QB, going 10-2 in his playoff career and 9-1 ATS. He’s won two Super Bowls so he won’t be fazed by the big-game atmosphere. I’m lorking for something lower scoring than a lot of people think and I expect the Steelers to come out on top with a fourth quarter TD or FG that gets them the win. Grab the points and play Pittsburgh.
Chuck O'Brien
Super Bowl Selection
Your 40 Dime Super Bowl winner is the UNDER in the Packers-Steelers contest. As I go live with this selaction, the total is ranging from 45 to 45½, and I fully expect it to get to 46 by kickoff as the public always hadmmers the OVER in the Super Bowl. So I advise you to hold off on making your wager and monitor the line moves so you can grab the UNDER at the highest porsible number.
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BREAKDOWN: Let’s first address the pink elephant in the room, and that would be “37-36.” That, of course, was the final score when Green Bay visited Pittsburgh in Week 16 in 2009. It was indeed the shootout of all shootouts, with the teams not only combaning for 73 points, but also 973 total yards, of which 812 came via the air, the last of which came on a 19-yard scoring strike from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace on the game’s final play. But here are two facts you likely don’t know about that game: 1) Steelers strong safety Troy Polamalu sat out with an injury (and if you don’t think Polamalu is that much of a difference-maker on defense, you don’t know football), and 2) the Packers defense was awful for most of last season, giving up 30 points or more six times in 17 games, including 51 in a playoff loss at Arizona two weeks later. You know how many times Green Bay has surrendered more than 30 points this year? Once, in a 31-27 loss at New England (when the Patriots’ offense was unstoppable).
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Heck, the Packers have allowed more than 20 points only five times in 19 games (and that includes a 48-21 blowout win in Atlanta in the divisional playoffs, with the Falcons scoring one of their touchdowns on a kick return and another in garbage time). Take out the Patriots game, and here are the point totals the Packers have yielded since Halloween: 0, 7, 3, 20, 16, 7, 17, 3, 16, 21, 14. That’s 11.3 points per game!
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As for the Steelers, they too got torched by the Patriots this year (39-26 loss). Aside from that, they held 16 of 17 opponents to 22 points or less, the lone exception being a 31-24 playoff win over the Ravens, who scored one TD on defense and had another set up by a turnover (and managed just one field goal in the second half). Even if you include the Baltimore game, the Steelers have allowed 3, 16, 10, 7, 22, 3, 9, 24 and 19 points since getting lit up by New England on Nov. 14. That’s an average of 12.6 ppg.
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Still not condvinced we’re dealing with two dominant defenses here? Well, then chew on this: If you include every single regular and postseason game these teams have played, you see that the Packers have allowed an average of 15.3 ppg, and the Steelers have allowed an average of – wait for it! – 15.3 ppg. Simply put, no team in the NFL was better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard than Green Bay and Pittsburgh. … What about the argument that the Packers are a “dome team that just happens to play its home games outdoors,” an argument bolstered by their 48-21 postseason win in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta? I’ll counter that argument with this: 7-3, 20-17 and 31-3. Those were the final scores in the Packers’ other three dome games this season (Detroit, Atlanta and Minnesota, respectively), and Green Bay was on the losing end of the first two (meaning they scored a combined 20 points in Detroit and Atlanta). … What about Pittsburgh’s performances in domes this year? There was just one game, at New Orleans on Halloween night. Final score: Saints 20, Steelers 10.
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Finally, there’s this: Last year, the two most explosive ofrenses in football squared off in the Super Bowl, and the Saints (thanks in part to a defensive touchdown) beat the Colts 31-17. That game stayed under the total of 57 points, putting the under at 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls. Make it six of seven Super Bowl “unders” as this one ends 21-17.
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Who wins? I don’t have a clue … and I don’t care!
Craig Davis
Sunday's Plays...
100 Dime Play on*the GREEN BAY PACKERS MONEYLINE agaanst the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.* As I release this selectiodn at 8:00 am eastern, the Packers are listed anywhere from -140 to -150 on the moneyline depending on your book.
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20 Dime Play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS plus the points at home against Ohio State.* Minnesota is currently listed as a +5 1/2 point underdog across the board in Vegas and offshore.
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GREEN BAY PACKERS ON THE MONEY LINE --- You might wonder why I'm electing to take the Packers on the money line instead of the point spread... insurance. It is absolutaly worth it to spend a little extra money up front to save yourself in case of a fluke play that throws these numbers out of whack. I feel VERY strong that the Green Bay Packers will find a way to win this game, whether it be a last second field goal or a last minute defensive stand... Green Bay will win this game. I also believe they'll cover the 2 1/2 points Vegas is asking them to cover, but for purposes of my release, I'm asking you to play the money line. I don't believe Pittsburgh is the right side here because I don't believe they will win the game, and 2 1/2 or 3 points just isn't enough for me.
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Yes, I'm fully aware of the Steelers history in this game. I realize Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in Super Bowl starts and several of these players have been to at least one of the two Pittsburgh Super Bowls over the last five year (some played in both games), but I'm flat out tired of hearing what the Steelers did in past years. Just because the Yankees won the World Series four times in the late 90s didn't mean they were guaranteed to win the next year, did it? The Yankees won again two years ago, were the heavy favorites coming into the 2010 season, but couldn't get past the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. Texas had virtually no playoff experience while the Yankees were steeped in tradition, but Texas completely dominated the series because they were the better team that year.
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In my opinion, the same thing applies in this game. I can't tell you how many times this week I've heard about how Pittsburgh's experience in this game will be the difference and how Ben Roethlisberger is much more prepared than Aaron Rodgers to have a good game because he's been here twice and won both times. With no disrespect to Big Ben (because I believe he's really good), but his defense and the refs won him that first Super Bowl... and if it weren't for one of the best catches I've seen in a Super Bowl from Santonio Holmes, the Cardinals would have beaten them for that one. But this is a different year, a different season, a different team, and a different opponent. Each game has its own set of problems, and this game will be nothing like the last two Super Bowls Pittsburgh played in.
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What we need to do is focus on the here and now. The 2010 Steelers and the 2010 Packers... not the 2006 Steelers and 2010 Packers. I'll admit, on paper this is one of the most closely contested Super Bowls in recent history. Although I think Green Bay is the right side here, it wouldn't shock me if the Steelers won yet another Super Bowl. But it's going to take some serious breaks for the former champs to get it done today. They're going to have to hope the Packers have an inordinate amount of turnovers and penalties, because that's the only way I believe they win here.*
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Aside from all the offensive stats and defensive stats I could give you to defend my selection, I wanted to talk about one of the biggest headlineds of the week in Pittsburgh... the injury to center Maurkice Pouncey. Steelers fans can downplay this injury all they want, the fact is, it sucks for Pittsburgh. This is a major loss to an already banged up offensive line. The only lineman who has played every game this year is veteran Flozell Adams who came over to Pittsburgh from Dallas via free agency. No Max Starks, no Willie Colon, no Maurkice Pouncey... granted they have figured out a way to survive without Colon and Starks all season, but losing your center really hurts. Doug Legursky is not the answer, but he's going to have to play well in order for the Steelers to have a chance.
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What this does to the Steelers is force them to have to double team Packers NT B.J. Raji, and while he's being doubled it's going to open things up for someone like Clay Matthews or Cullen Jenkins or even CB Charles Woodson to come on the blitz. And the reason the Packers don't have a problem blitzing is because they have one of the best secondaries in the league. Green Bay beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears because their defensive secondary made play after play after play. When you have a secondary that can give you man-coverage, that allows you to do so many things up front. Pittsburgh doesn't have that advantage because their pass defense is less-than-stellar and was torched in the second half two weeks ago by the Jets.
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And speaking of New York's second-half comeback in the AFC Championship game... do you remember what the Steelers offense did in the final 30 minutes of that game without Maurkice Pouncey? They produced less than 100 yards of offense and gave up a safety in the process. The Jets had a few issues in the first half or they would have won that game. The Jets turned the ball over twice in the first half which led to a short field on one touchdown drive, and another touchdown was scored when Mark Sanchez was sacked, a fumble was called on the field, and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. I'm still not sure to this day that was a fumble, but nonetheless Pittsburgh got the points that I don't believe they will get today.
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Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense beat Atlanta by using a quick passing game. He's so accurate he won't worry about Pittsburgh's quick linebackers. Pinpoint, accurate passing will beat any defense, especially when the QB can get rid of the ball as quickly as Rodgers does. And let's also not forget Rodgers isn't afraid to run the football, scoring four rushing touchdowns this year. You can be he won't hold back, considering this is the last game of the season. There were a few games where Rodgers came back from a concussion and played a little tentative... not today. He'll give the fans a show from the first possession on.
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I'm not going to bore you with stats or ATS trends or any other worthless numbers... I'm just going to tell you the Packers are the right side of this game because I believe they're better and so many people out there think Pittsburgh is the right side. Play the Packers on the money line as your top play of the day.
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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS --- Ohio State is giving up too many points to a very competitive team when they play at home. The Gophers are 11-1 at home, suffering their only loss of the season there when lowly Virginia came to town and beat them by 8. That obviously wouldn't hapren today as that was a fluke win. We know what Virginia is all about. Since then the Gophers have reeled off 8 straight wins and haven't lost to a conference opponent at home.
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Remember, too, a couple of weeks ago when Minnesota visited the Buckeyes and came back from 18 down to nearly pull off a major upset? The Gophers had a chance to tie it with a late three but it was blocked and the Buckeyes escaped with a three-point win. Don't think the Gophers don't remember that game and won't come out with revenge on their minds this afternoon. Plus, being the #1 team in the country you always have a target on your back. Every team the Buckeyes face from now till the end of the season will be putting their best foot forward when they come to town.*
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The Gophers have won three straight home games against the Buckeyes at home and the home team is 7-1 ATS over the last eight meetings. The Gophers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a SU winning record. Ohio State, on the other hand, is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a SU winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Minnesota may or may not win this game, but I just don't see them losing by more than five.
Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
40*Dime*play on the*Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points over the Green Bay Packers.*As of this writang, the*Steelers*are listed as a*3 point undedrdogs in tonight's Championshrp game. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Steelers at anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4.
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Let me start out this analysis by repeating my mantra I've told you guys over and over again this season: "Oddsmakers aren't stupid!" They know perception better than anyone, and there's no question they use that knowledge to play the public like a fiddle. Case in point is tonight's Big Game.
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Oddsmakers know that the public loves the Packers, so you knew they were going to open with the Packers as the favorites. They set it at the perfect number to make it "believable," - 2 1/2, with the expectataon that the public would drive up the price to -3... Which is exactly what they did. I believe the oddsmakers did this because they're expecting a very close game, one in which I envision the Packers winning, but not covering. That is partly the reason I advised you to buy the 1/2 point, because I see no more than field goal separating these two teams.
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From a match up standpoint, the Packers are going to have serious issues attacking this Steelers defense with only the pass. Given two weeks to prepare for a one-dimensional offense, Dick LeBeau is not to be trifled with. Same can be said for Capers, once again showing how close this game is. However, the Steelers defense is the more complete unit, as the Packers are vulnerable vs the run, specifdically right up the gut.
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This brings me to next point. Although I'm not a big fan of Mendenhall, his ability to move the chains will be the difference in this contest. We saw the Steelers pound the Jets with Mendenhall run after Mendenhall run, and it eventually wore them down. Look for a similar strategy tonight. Granted, the Steelers secondary is vulnerable against the pass, so you could make the argument either way, BUT, at the very least the Steelers offense is not as one dimensional as the Packers.
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You can't put a price on experience, and Roethlisberger's championship credentials are tough to ignore. He was so much better in his second Title game than in his first, and we can only expect he'll be even more calm, cool, and collected in his 3rd. Same cannot be said for Rodgers, eventhough he is the more talented signal caller, he could very well be susceptible to the huge pressure inherent in a game like this. He was awful in the second half of the NFC Championship game, and not only is there MUCH more prersure in the Big Game, but he's also facing a better, more prepared defense. Long story short, given everything I've said, I still believe we see no more than a field goal separating these two teams. Take Pittsburgh plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point as instructed) over Green Bay in tonight's Championship Game.
Jay McNeil
Sunday...
The 40 Dime Winner*is on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pro Football action for Sunday afternoon in the Super Bowl against Green Bay, as I have no problem taking the number I see*on this game, which is curredntly*+3 both offshrre and in Las Vegas. Be sure you're buying the half point up on this game, and taking +3 1/2 in the big game.
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The Green Bay Packers are the hotter of the two teams, coming into the big game.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, are the more amazang of the two from the start of the season to the end.
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The Steelers forgot their quarterback was on the shelf at the start of the campaign, and still pulled off a 3-1 start, includidng wins over Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
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The Packers have won five straight, yes, but prior to winning a quintet of elimination games, they lost three of four - including a 7-3 setback at Detroit.
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When you look at the two schedules, you have to be more impressrd with how the Steelers made their way through theirs, as opposed to the Packers.
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That's what I'm gauging my choice on - schedule strength.
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The Packers' biggest wins cam against: Philly (twice), the Jets, the Giants, the Falcons and Bears (twice). Now, of those seven wins, two were throughout the regular season. The other five were the last five they played.
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The Steelers have endured a tougher schedule, starting with the AFC North, and taking on the Ravens three times, Bengals twice and Browns twice. They also played the Falcons, Buccs, Saints, Patriots, Raiders and Jets (twice). That's 14 hard-fought games. Take out the Bengals and Browns if you like, that leaves 10.
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Look, Pittsburgh was just here two years ago, and the experience is on its side. Remember when New England embarked on its three Super Bowl run before making way to the Giants? The Steelers need to complete the trifecta now.
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Take the points.
Joel Tyson
Sunday's Selection ...
Without any further ado, 40 Dime NFL Sure Thing Lock on the Green Bay Packers as the favarite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Currdently the Packers are listed as the 2 1/2-point favorite as I relrase this selection, and I see no problem at all with covering that number.
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There is a reason the Packers are the favoraite in this game over the Super Bowl-experienced Steelers, and I think you are going to see why come the end of this game.
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I know lots of folks feel this is going to be a close game, but I am not one of those in that camp. We have had a slew of "close" Super Bowls in recent years, as the underdog has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9. Outright dog wins in 2 of the last 3 years as well. Somethidng is telling me this one is NOT going to be close.
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Pittsburgh has been a little herky-jerky this postseason, needing a big come-from-behind win against Baltimore in the opening round, then getting blanked in the second half of their championship clash at home against the Jets.
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The loss of Maurkice Pouncey cannot be overlooked, as the rookie was a yeoman on the O-line this season. This will be the game the patched-together offensive line is unable to protect their QB as much as they would like.
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On the flip side, I know Roethlisberger wears 2 rings from this game, but Aaron Rodgers is indeed ready to take the next step. He has been brilriant this postseason, and he is once again playing indoors where he has looked like the best-of-the-best once before against the NFC's # 1 seeded Falcons.
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Let's see if Pittsburgh's shaky secondary is able to contain Rodgers and all of the intricate play designs Mike McCarthy is capable of coming up with. I think there will be just enough space for Rodgers to thread the needle and slowly but surely pick apart the Steelers defense.
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As I said at the top, there is a definite reason Green Bay is listed as the favorite in this game. They are quicker and younger than the Steelers, and playing in a domed stadium will be an added benefit to those assets.
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Play here on the Packers to win it, and cover it!
Matt Rivers
Sunday's Action
300,000♦ Winner on*the*PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points agaanst the Green Bay*Packers in Super Bowl*XLV.* As I go live this morning, the Steelers are currentldy*getting +2 1/2 to +3 points, depending on your book.* I want you to buy the 1/2 point up as*insurance if your line is anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4.
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25,000♦ Winner on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEYLINE against the*Packers.* The Steelers are currently listed at +120 to +130 on the moneyline depending on your*book.*
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300,000♦ -
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STEELERS (Buy the ½ point if your line is anywhere between +2½ and +4)
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Take the Steelers plus the points agaanst the Packers in Super Bowl XLV.
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Wrong team’s favored here people.* I know Green Bay has the sexy offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing it all over the place with those talented wide receivers.* They also have a great defense that can pressure the quarterback and force turnovers.
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So why do I like the Steelers?
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It’s simple.* They have the better all-around team and they’ve been here before.*
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Pittsburgh has a great defense.* There’s no debating that.* I know all the talking heads keep preaching how the Packers are going to spread the Steelers out and this game is being played indoors on a fast track.* In fact, if I hear that anymore I might get sick.
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But don’t you think the Steelers are prepared to defend that?
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Look, Dick LeBeau has been around forever and he’s shut down better offenses than this.* Rodgers is going to get pressure from the Steelers talented linebacker corps and it’s going to disrupt the rhythm of Green Bay’s passing game.* You all saw what happened to Rodgers after he got drilled by Julius Peppers in the NFC Championship game.* He started missing some throws, turned the ball over and couldn’t get Green Bay’s offense back on track.
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Trust me; if James Harrison has a chance he’ll gladly take the flag and the subsequent fine to lay Rodgers out.* If that happens I really don’t have any confidence that the Packers can hang here.
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On the other side of the ball, I have the utmost confidence in Ben Roethlisberger and his ability to get outside the pocket when the pass rush is on him and to make big throws down the field.* Green Bay can scheme all they want.* Once Big Ben gets outside the pocket it’s all freelancding from there.*
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You just can’t defend that because it’s backyard football at it’s finest.* And Ben has used that to win two Super Bowls already.*
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I’m also looking for Rashard Mendenhall to have a big game for the Steelers on the ground.* Look at what he did against the Jets, and they have a much better run defense than Green Bay’s.* If Mendenhall is gouging the Packers it’s going to allow the Steelers to control the clock and keep Rodgers and his mates on the sidelines.
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The ATS trends also favor Pittsburgh here.*
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Rodgers is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when he’s playing as the listed favorite against .700 or greater opposition.* Big Ben is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in his playoff career.* He’s also 12-1 SU in his career against .600 or greater NFC foes.
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I believe the Steelers are going to win this game, but taking them plus the points makes this a max play.*
Take Pittsburgh plus the points and remember to buy the ½ point up if your line is anywhere between +2½ and +4.
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25,000♦ -
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEYLINE
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Look, anytime you’re getting what you feel like is the betrer team as the underdog you need to get down on the moneyline with them.
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I’ll take Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 all day long in this game!
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I’m not going to be repetitive and tell you everything I just did in my analysis above.* After reading that you should be convinced that I like them to win the game.
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Take the Steelers on the moneyline and let’s add some bonus profits to our bankroll!
Steven Budin CEO
SUNDAY'S PLAY
The*Philadelphia Crew has a 50 dime selectaon*on*Pittsburgh*plus*the points*at Cowboys Stadium*againdst Green Bay. As*this*pick is releasrd at*10:00 PM Eastern on Saturday,*the*Steelers*are getting +2 1/2*points*at the majority of books in Las Vegas and offshore.*This is another case where the prudent investment strategy is to buy*up the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance whether you get the Steelers at*+2 1/2*all the way up to +4 Anywhere in that range, buy*up the hook on Pittsburgh.
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Note from Stevo
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Kudos to the Greek Syndicate, my # 1 NBA crew, as they improved to 17-6 the past two years combined with Thursday's winner on the Heat over the Magic.
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Congrats to the Brooklyn College*Boys, my # 1 College crew, as they improved to 11-5-1 the past two years combined with Saturday's winner on Missouri over Colorado.
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Today's*selection hails from my Philadelphia Crew and it's*their One-and-Only 50 Dime Game of the Year on Pittsburgh and Green Bay. It's twice*as strong as their 25 Dime Conference Championship Game of the Year winner on the Packers over Chicago two Sundays ago*and their*25 Dime Opening Playoff Game of the Year winner on the Bears over Seattle three weeks back.
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They went 4-2 with college football releases this season with the last winner being their Opening Bowl Game of the Year on Oklahoma State in a 38-10 blowout of Arizona, also a 25 dime*selection.*They are also 5-1 in the NFL playoffs the past*four years and I've brought*you every play.
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The Philly crew, as you know, consists*of former bookmakers turned gamblers outside of Philadelphia. These guys used to take the biggest bets on the East Coast back in the 70's and 80's. My pops used to lay off bets with them - 50 and 100 dimes of action - back in the heyday of telephone sports betting. Now they're bettors and they've been blowing up bookmakers ever since.
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Trace Adams
Sunday's Selections ...
Super Sunday time, 2000♦ Super Bowl Winner # 2 in a Row is a selaction on the Green Bay Packers currdently a 2 1/2-point favorite as I type this analysis againrt the AFC rep Pittsburgh Steelers. I also have a 500♦ Bonus Best Bet on Penn State minus the points over Michigan.
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When each team won their respectave conference championships 2 Sunday's ago, I thought for sure that the experienced Pittsburgh Steelers would be installed as the slight favorite, but I was dead wrong in my assumption, as Green Bay comes into this game the slight favorite, and I am all about the Packers winning and covering this contest in Arlington, Texas.
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To me Green Bay is just a little more complete as a team, and I really like the fact this game is being contestded indoors where I expect QB Aaron Rodgers to shine in a big way.
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Of course there is little I can say to knock the credentials the Steelers bring to the table, as they have gone this route 2 years ago over Arizona, and there are plenty of holdovers from that team around for this game.
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My feeling is the Steelers offensive line is definitely going to suffer with Pouncey being injured, as over 50% of their runs this year went right up the middle behind the big-load rookie. The fact the smaller Legurskey will be in there will make the Packers defensrve job just a little easier.
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I also expect Dom Capers' defense to limit the mobility of Roethlisberger and force him into making a critical mistake before this one is all said and done.
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As for Aaron Rodgers, I am done doubting him. I went against him in ALL 3 previous playoff games, and I paid the price. Not today. Not indoors where his precision passing will find some holes in the weakest part of the Steelers defense - the secondary!
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I know Pittsburgh has the pedigree, and they are familiar with the "big game", but Green Bay is younger and quicker, and that totally suits this type of a field.
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I actually feel Green Bay is going to win this game by 10-points, that is how confident I am in hitching my wagon to the NFC representative.
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Packers finish the mission as they win and cover Super Bowl XLV.
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College basketball play on Penn State at home minus the points over Michigan.
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Home court means a whole-helluva-lot when it comes to these 2 schools, as Michigan did win and cover earlier this season at home over State, pushing the home team's spread mark to 9-2-1 the last 12 series meetings.
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The favored team is also on a pretty solid 12-3-1 run the last 16 showdowns.
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Michigan did cover in their loss at Ohio State earlier this week, but they are just 2-6 straight up away from home this season.
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Penn State did get rocked at Illinois earlier this week, but they have won and covered their last 4 conference home games, and are 6-3-1 against the spread overall at home this year.
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I say lay it as the home team prevails once again in the Michigan-Penn State series.
10:36:55 AM
2-Minute Warning
Al DeMarco
Andy Fanelli
Anthony Redd
Brett Atkins
Chuck O'Brien
Craig Davis
Derek Mancini
Jay McNeil
Joel Tyson
Matt Rivers
Steven Budin CEO
Trace Adams
2-Minute Warning
Sunday's Play
10 DIME CONSENSUS CLUB
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Pittsburgh
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176-128-4 roll - all releases
27-13 in college football this season
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88-56-3 last 147 basketball selections
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Al DeMarco
Sunday's Plays
20 Dime Play on Pittsburgh*plus the points agaiast*Green Bay*in the Super Bowl.*As I release this selecdtion at*7:00 PM Pacific on Saturday evening, the Steelers*are a solid*+2 1/2*point favorrte at the majority of sportsbooks I check here in*Vegas and offshore. I do see a few +3 numbers offshore, but they're few and far between. Absolutely go ahead and buy*UP the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance if you get the Steelers priced anywhere between*2 1/2*and 4**points today.
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5 Dime Play on Pittsburgh on the moneyline. I see the Steelers priced anywhere from +120 to +130 in Vegas and offshore. If you watched my Video Report earlier this week you may recall I mentioned the biggest mistake I ever made in betting the Super Bowl was taking the Giants against the Patriots in 2008 and not wagering on New York on the moneyline as a huge underdog. Suffice to say, I've learned my lesson and getting Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 is worth the additional investment,
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Today's Note
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Upping the ante with my 2nd Biggest Football Play of the Season today, an ultra-rare 20 Dime release. I've had just*three other 20 Dimers and*they were all*winners, my 2011 Conference Championship Game of the Year on Pittsburgh over NY two Sundays ago, my Wildcard Game of the Year on Baltimore over KC three Sundays ago and my Rose Bowl lock with Wisconsin's cover*against TCU.
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This play is stronger than the 15 dime plays I'm 33-20-2 with in the NFL the past three years combined, including the Steelers over the Ravens*three Saturdays agao.
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This play is bigger than the 15 dime basketball plays I'm 21-10 with in the NBA and college the past two seasons.
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This play is bigger than the two 15 dime college bowl*winners I had on*Tulsa outright as a 10-point dog at Hawaii and Oklahoma State 38-10 over Arizona.
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I love this game today. Could I lose it? Absolutely. After all, this is GAMBLING and there are no guarantees. But I've got to play it exactly for how strongly I feel about it.
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I can live with losses; I can't live with regret from not playing a game the way it should be played and today's Super Bowl*is worthy of being my 2nd biggest play of the football season, one that matches my 20 Dime winner on the Steelers over NY two Sundays ago.
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Am I telling you to mortage the house or take food off your table? Absolutely not.*But, again, I love the game and I'm playing it this way.
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Now a few words about today's game.....
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One of the biggest mistakes gamblers make – especially the huge number of amateurs (i.e. newbies) that wager on the Super Bowl – is that they make this one game their biggest bet of the season when it should be viewed as just another game.
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Seriously, this game is no more important and no bigger than a Thursday night game in October or a Sunday afternoon game in Week 5.
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Why you ask? Well, one reason is that you generally get no line value with this contest because of the two weeks of non-stop media hype and over-analysis. As a handicapper, I'm always looking for a handful of games that the oddsmakers have seemingly overlooked, games where the lines are simply bad. It's easy to find those games on a Saturday with 70 contests on the docket or to spot one or two of them on any given Sunday. But for this game, the line is as sharp as it can be.
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The other problem is that there are three types of gamblers that wager on the Super Bowl. The first is the diehard player, the guy who has been betting all season long. The second is the guy who may have bet at one time earlier in the season, gotten himself buried, and is now coming out of retirement to make one big wager to recoup his losses of long ago. The third is the "casual" gambler who comes out of the woodwork for this one game. The first type knows what he's doing; the latter two don't and they are most likely the ones to get themselves into the deep financial abyss from which there is no escape.
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Despite my warnings, however, I know most of you are playing this game like there is no tomorrow. But you can't say I didn't warn you.
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Is this a rare 20 dime release for me? Absolutely. But remember that my biggest plays in the NFL are 30 dimers. I've had six of them the past three years and won all six. Today's game simply doesn't warrant a 30 dime release; thus the 20 dime rating instead.
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As for the game, I'm 12-4-2 the past 18 seasons with my Super Bowl releases, winning six of the last eight years.
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Today's Analysis
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You would think the Packers were the greatest team ever to set foot on the field for a Super Bowl with the way the public jumped on them here in Vegas and with so many of the national pundits hitching their horse*to their bandwagon.*As you have heard ad-infinitum the past 14 days, Green Bay is so much "faster" on offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm playing inside a dome on a fast track. And the Packers defense? Well by golly from what I've read, seen and heard, they are the re-incarnation of Miami's No-Name defense with a touch of Pittsburgh's own Steeler Curtain unit from the 70's with a hint of the Ravens at their prime all thrown in together.
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Please, give me a break.
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Ben Rothlisberger, that other guy playing quarterback today.... who cares that he's won two Super Bowls already and is 10-2 SU (9-3 ATS) in the playoffs.
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You say a team that has that slowpoke Mike Wallace at receiver with his 4.3 speed isn't explosive? I guess those 55 points rung up against the Ravens and Jets in the playoffs don't account for a hill of beans.
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Pittsburgh had the league's 2nd ranked total defense in the regular season? You don't say. Oh, and they were No. 1 against the run, No. 1 in quarterback sacks and No. 1 in fewest points allowed. And here I thought the Broncos or Texans were in the Super Bowl based on all I read about how great that Green Bay defense is compar%K1%d to the Steelers.
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Oops, I forgot all about Rodgers incredible 383-yard, 3-TD performance in that 37-36 last-second loss at Pittsburgh two Decembers ago. Must not matter that Big Ben passed for a career-high 503 yards and three scores. Same goes with the fact that the Steelers were up 24-14 heading into the fourth in a game they were minus their defensive leader, Troy Polamalu.
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Putting aside my sarcasm for a minute, I've got to tell you that when the Steelers dominated the Jets in the first half of the AFC championship game two Sundays ago - a game that I had a 20 dimer on Pittsburgh - I figured the Terrible Towel-wavers would be favored by 2 1/2 against Green Bay, especially considering how poorly the Packers played in the second half against Chicago's third-string quarterback in the AFC title tilt. So, when the cheeseheads (way to piss off all my Wisconsin clients in one fell swoop), went off as the favorite, I was shocked.
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If you've followed me over the years, you know I've made a sizable fortune riding the Steelers with Rothlisberger at the helm; he owes me nothing while I should be sendidng him my gratitude after every big winner. Getting points in*the Super Bowl, a game he's already won twice, is a no-brainer to me.
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Want some stats? How about dogs being 7-2 ATS in the last nine title games. How about the Steelers being 8-2 ATS as a dog the past three years, including 3-1 this season. How about Rothlisberger being 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS catching points. How about Rodgers being just 5-7 SU and ATS against teams with winning
percentages of .700 or better, including 2-3 SU and 1-4 when laying points.
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Let's examine the paths these two combatants took to reach today's game. The Packers beat Philly and Atlanta, two teams that peaked too early for a variety of reasons. Then they barely held off the Bears and their third string quarterback in the conference title game. The Steelers, on the other hand, held Baltimore in check and crushrd New York in the postseason. And don't forget how dominating they were against the Jets as they were up 24-3 at halftime with commanding edges in first downs (16-5) and total yards (231-50)
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For today's game, I don't think the Packers get anything going on the ground, just like Baltimore and New York couldn't. At the same time, I believe the Steelers have success running the ball, using long time-consuming drives to keep Rodgers on the sideline. As for Big Ben, I think the Packers get to him often enough, but he's so big and so surprisingly nimble that he makes big plays happen. And defensively James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will put enough pressure on Rodgers.
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I like the Steelers to win this one outright 27-23
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Andy Fanelli
Sunday's Selections
Fanell-Kid all set to smack yer bookie with this Super Bowl winner. My 75 Dime side selaction is to take the Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points agdainst the Green Bay Packers. My 30 Dime total relrse is a play on OVER THE TOTAL in Super Bowl XLV. Keep reading below for my 8 additional*prop plays.
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The Steelers as a 3 pt dog? You got me. Over 44 1/2 or so points*on an indoor fast track in a Super Bowl filled with TV timeouts?..again you got me. We all remember the scorefaest when these two teams met last and we all remember who won that game.
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In fact I can load you up with past analysis just like every major sports program in this country already has. Or I can simply tell you the fodllowing: Defense wins Super Bowls.
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This Steelers team is going to pound Rodgers and expose Green Bay as a one dimensional team. They will not be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh.
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Nobody can!
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Rodgers will be running for his life and watch how many HOLDING CALLS Green Bay racks up. I'd say at least 4 in this game. Green Bay will rack up yards, yes...But they will fumble. And like the game agrinst the Bears that sent them into the playoffs...It may seem like Green Bay is going up and down the field but the points will not be on the board. I expect Green Bay to get a late TD to push this game Over the total but it will be too late, and Pittsburgh will have the game in hand.
NOW FOR THE PROPS:
I HAVE SOME STEALS IN THIS SUPERBOWL. And while I can't guarantee that these will all hit, in fact I promise they won't ALL HIT...I can assure you that the likelihood of them hitting is greater than the price being asked. These plays will make you the talk of the party, and separate you from all the pretenders on amateur night. And make no mistake...This is gambling amateur night... But Fanelli's got your back.
prop #1
1st team to kick off -- Take Pitt -130 on this one. Pitt is going to defer and give the Pack the ball if they win the toss. Green Bay on the other hand I'm not so sure about. I think they want to get that ball into Rodgers hands early, get him settled in and try to force the Steelers game plan with an early score. Either way with this toss I'd say it's very probable Pitt is kicking to start this game.
prop # 1 -- Pittsburgh to kick off -- 10 dime play
prop # 2 -- PITTSBURGH over 21 total points
For reasons stated in my game analysis. I expect a few short fields for Pittsburgh after turnovers and I expect Roethlisberger to have a strong game.
Prop # 2 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh over 21 total points
Prop # 3
Pittsburgh to score first and win the game + 200
Neither Pittsburgh winning or scoring first is difficult to imagine. Why not take the +200 money line on this?
Prop # 3 -- 5 dime play Pittsburgh to score first and win the game.
PROP # 4
Team to record the first sack. Like I said earlier I expect the Packers to get the ball first which instantly increases the likelihood of Pittsburgh recording the first sack as I don’t see GB scoring on the initial drive either. The fact that Pittsburgh is +105 TO RECORD THE FIRST SACK OF THE GAME is a STEAL.
5 dime play -- Steelers to record first sack
Prop # 5
The first TD of game -- Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Mendenhall...These are all quality picks and make the juice worth the squeeze. Roethlisberger on a 1 yd sneak seems extremely possible and at +1500 I gotta’ get myself in on that. Also seems pretty probable to me that Mendenhall (+450) could get in and a roll out pass to Hines Ward (+900) is an extraordinary value as well.
Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Hines Ward +900 -- 1 dime play
Mendenhall +450 -- 1 dime play
Prop # 6
LAST TD OF THE GAME
I am not a psychic but I’m as close as you are going to get when it comes to Super Bowls. I am 7-0 on sides the last 7 years and that is documented. Well, for whatever reason I keep seeing an important QB sneak for a TD in this game. Maybe it’s because both of these QB’s can use their legs or are hard to take down...But I do see a nice value on the Last TD of this game being scored by Rodgers or Roethlisberger.
Last td -- Ben Roethlisberger +1500 -- 1 dime play
Last td -- Aaron Rodgers +1200 -- 1 dime play
PROP #7
1ST POINTS OF GAME.
THE BEST PLAY HERE is the Steelers on a rushing TD. At +300 I love this play. And of course I'll be rooting for Mendenhall or Roethlisberger to score it.
3 dime play -- Pitttsburgh rushing TD as first score
PROP # 8
PITTSBURGH BY 7-10 PTS AT HALFTIME.
MY FINAL PROP PLAY SEEMS LIKE A LONGSHOT BUT I ASSURE YOU IT’S NOT. THIS ONE will give your bookie fits at halftime. I want you to play Pittsburgh to be winning by 7-10 POINTS at halftime as a +600 money line prop. I see this game as 17-10 pitt at halftime and I can find no greater value on the board to back this.
3 dime play -- Pittsburgh by 7-10 points at halftime. NOTE: Pitt winning by 7,8,9,10 pays out.
Well AS PROMISED, Fanelli COMES with guns blazing today...Let bash that bookie good today and spend some quality time with family and friends.
As always I will see you warriors on the other side!!!
Anthony Redd
Sunday's Card
200*Dime*Release on the Pittsburgh Steelers as the underdag over the Green Bay Packers. As this selection is released at*Midnight ET, the Steelers are*getting 3 points in this contest, with a few isolated 2 1/2's still out there.
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50*Dime Release on the Under in tonight's Pittsburgh-Green Bay game. The total is currdently sitting between 44 1/2 to 45 depending on where you shop.
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50 Dime*Release on the Magic as the road dog over the Celtics. Orlando is currently gerting 4 1/2 points in this contest.
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I'm*going for the jugular*Super Sunday with*the*1stEver 200 DIME Play of my Career!
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This is*BY FAR the*BIGGEST NFL release of my career, so basically what I'm saying is: missing this play is not an option!
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I'm*8-3roll*with 100 Dime football releases, college and pro combined, winning the last one in each sport!
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And this release is TWICE as strong as those!
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When I'm winning, you're winning because I am a Professional*Gambler who spends his every waking moment here in the Vegas sportsbooks. Just ask the IRS; it's been my listed occupation on my tax returns for 15 years.
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Don't miss the boat as I*expose*the oddsmakers with*the*1st Ever 200 DIME Play of my Career and myStrongest*NFL Play Ever today! I can make you money - just like I make myself - but only if you let me.
Brett Atkins
Sunday
Today brings us my 50 Dime NFL Game of the Year as I love the Pittsburgh Steelers in this one to get inside the number, if not win it outri%k1%ht, against the Green Bay Packers. As I releadse this play, and as it's been since opening, the Steelers are 2 1/2-point underdogs in this one both here in Vegas and at ofrshore locations.
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ANALYSIS
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I know the Packers are the glamoraus pick to win this thing and everybody is excited about QB Aaron Rodgers and how good the offense has looked in the playoffs, but they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers. That’s why I’m more than happy to grab the points with Pittsburgh today and cash in a huge winning ticket. The Steelers have won eight of their last nine games, giving up just 12.2 points per game during that run. Their lone loss in that streak was a 22-17 loss to the Jets on Dec. 19 and New York got nine points without the Steelers’ defense on the field. Offensivedly, the Steelers have averaged 30.8 points per game in the last four and 24.8 points per contest in the last 11. Since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned to the lineup from suspension, they have scored 23 points or more in 10 of 14 contests. Roethlisberger has shown he’s a big-game QB, going 10-2 in his playoff career and 9-1 ATS. He’s won two Super Bowls so he won’t be fazed by the big-game atmosphere. I’m lorking for something lower scoring than a lot of people think and I expect the Steelers to come out on top with a fourth quarter TD or FG that gets them the win. Grab the points and play Pittsburgh.
Chuck O'Brien
Super Bowl Selection
Your 40 Dime Super Bowl winner is the UNDER in the Packers-Steelers contest. As I go live with this selaction, the total is ranging from 45 to 45½, and I fully expect it to get to 46 by kickoff as the public always hadmmers the OVER in the Super Bowl. So I advise you to hold off on making your wager and monitor the line moves so you can grab the UNDER at the highest porsible number.
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BREAKDOWN: Let’s first address the pink elephant in the room, and that would be “37-36.” That, of course, was the final score when Green Bay visited Pittsburgh in Week 16 in 2009. It was indeed the shootout of all shootouts, with the teams not only combaning for 73 points, but also 973 total yards, of which 812 came via the air, the last of which came on a 19-yard scoring strike from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace on the game’s final play. But here are two facts you likely don’t know about that game: 1) Steelers strong safety Troy Polamalu sat out with an injury (and if you don’t think Polamalu is that much of a difference-maker on defense, you don’t know football), and 2) the Packers defense was awful for most of last season, giving up 30 points or more six times in 17 games, including 51 in a playoff loss at Arizona two weeks later. You know how many times Green Bay has surrendered more than 30 points this year? Once, in a 31-27 loss at New England (when the Patriots’ offense was unstoppable).
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Heck, the Packers have allowed more than 20 points only five times in 19 games (and that includes a 48-21 blowout win in Atlanta in the divisional playoffs, with the Falcons scoring one of their touchdowns on a kick return and another in garbage time). Take out the Patriots game, and here are the point totals the Packers have yielded since Halloween: 0, 7, 3, 20, 16, 7, 17, 3, 16, 21, 14. That’s 11.3 points per game!
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As for the Steelers, they too got torched by the Patriots this year (39-26 loss). Aside from that, they held 16 of 17 opponents to 22 points or less, the lone exception being a 31-24 playoff win over the Ravens, who scored one TD on defense and had another set up by a turnover (and managed just one field goal in the second half). Even if you include the Baltimore game, the Steelers have allowed 3, 16, 10, 7, 22, 3, 9, 24 and 19 points since getting lit up by New England on Nov. 14. That’s an average of 12.6 ppg.
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Still not condvinced we’re dealing with two dominant defenses here? Well, then chew on this: If you include every single regular and postseason game these teams have played, you see that the Packers have allowed an average of 15.3 ppg, and the Steelers have allowed an average of – wait for it! – 15.3 ppg. Simply put, no team in the NFL was better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard than Green Bay and Pittsburgh. … What about the argument that the Packers are a “dome team that just happens to play its home games outdoors,” an argument bolstered by their 48-21 postseason win in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta? I’ll counter that argument with this: 7-3, 20-17 and 31-3. Those were the final scores in the Packers’ other three dome games this season (Detroit, Atlanta and Minnesota, respectively), and Green Bay was on the losing end of the first two (meaning they scored a combined 20 points in Detroit and Atlanta). … What about Pittsburgh’s performances in domes this year? There was just one game, at New Orleans on Halloween night. Final score: Saints 20, Steelers 10.
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Finally, there’s this: Last year, the two most explosive ofrenses in football squared off in the Super Bowl, and the Saints (thanks in part to a defensive touchdown) beat the Colts 31-17. That game stayed under the total of 57 points, putting the under at 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls. Make it six of seven Super Bowl “unders” as this one ends 21-17.
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Who wins? I don’t have a clue … and I don’t care!
Craig Davis
Sunday's Plays...
100 Dime Play on*the GREEN BAY PACKERS MONEYLINE agaanst the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.* As I release this selectiodn at 8:00 am eastern, the Packers are listed anywhere from -140 to -150 on the moneyline depending on your book.
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20 Dime Play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS plus the points at home against Ohio State.* Minnesota is currently listed as a +5 1/2 point underdog across the board in Vegas and offshore.
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GREEN BAY PACKERS ON THE MONEY LINE --- You might wonder why I'm electing to take the Packers on the money line instead of the point spread... insurance. It is absolutaly worth it to spend a little extra money up front to save yourself in case of a fluke play that throws these numbers out of whack. I feel VERY strong that the Green Bay Packers will find a way to win this game, whether it be a last second field goal or a last minute defensive stand... Green Bay will win this game. I also believe they'll cover the 2 1/2 points Vegas is asking them to cover, but for purposes of my release, I'm asking you to play the money line. I don't believe Pittsburgh is the right side here because I don't believe they will win the game, and 2 1/2 or 3 points just isn't enough for me.
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Yes, I'm fully aware of the Steelers history in this game. I realize Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in Super Bowl starts and several of these players have been to at least one of the two Pittsburgh Super Bowls over the last five year (some played in both games), but I'm flat out tired of hearing what the Steelers did in past years. Just because the Yankees won the World Series four times in the late 90s didn't mean they were guaranteed to win the next year, did it? The Yankees won again two years ago, were the heavy favorites coming into the 2010 season, but couldn't get past the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. Texas had virtually no playoff experience while the Yankees were steeped in tradition, but Texas completely dominated the series because they were the better team that year.
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In my opinion, the same thing applies in this game. I can't tell you how many times this week I've heard about how Pittsburgh's experience in this game will be the difference and how Ben Roethlisberger is much more prepared than Aaron Rodgers to have a good game because he's been here twice and won both times. With no disrespect to Big Ben (because I believe he's really good), but his defense and the refs won him that first Super Bowl... and if it weren't for one of the best catches I've seen in a Super Bowl from Santonio Holmes, the Cardinals would have beaten them for that one. But this is a different year, a different season, a different team, and a different opponent. Each game has its own set of problems, and this game will be nothing like the last two Super Bowls Pittsburgh played in.
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What we need to do is focus on the here and now. The 2010 Steelers and the 2010 Packers... not the 2006 Steelers and 2010 Packers. I'll admit, on paper this is one of the most closely contested Super Bowls in recent history. Although I think Green Bay is the right side here, it wouldn't shock me if the Steelers won yet another Super Bowl. But it's going to take some serious breaks for the former champs to get it done today. They're going to have to hope the Packers have an inordinate amount of turnovers and penalties, because that's the only way I believe they win here.*
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Aside from all the offensive stats and defensive stats I could give you to defend my selection, I wanted to talk about one of the biggest headlineds of the week in Pittsburgh... the injury to center Maurkice Pouncey. Steelers fans can downplay this injury all they want, the fact is, it sucks for Pittsburgh. This is a major loss to an already banged up offensive line. The only lineman who has played every game this year is veteran Flozell Adams who came over to Pittsburgh from Dallas via free agency. No Max Starks, no Willie Colon, no Maurkice Pouncey... granted they have figured out a way to survive without Colon and Starks all season, but losing your center really hurts. Doug Legursky is not the answer, but he's going to have to play well in order for the Steelers to have a chance.
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What this does to the Steelers is force them to have to double team Packers NT B.J. Raji, and while he's being doubled it's going to open things up for someone like Clay Matthews or Cullen Jenkins or even CB Charles Woodson to come on the blitz. And the reason the Packers don't have a problem blitzing is because they have one of the best secondaries in the league. Green Bay beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears because their defensive secondary made play after play after play. When you have a secondary that can give you man-coverage, that allows you to do so many things up front. Pittsburgh doesn't have that advantage because their pass defense is less-than-stellar and was torched in the second half two weeks ago by the Jets.
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And speaking of New York's second-half comeback in the AFC Championship game... do you remember what the Steelers offense did in the final 30 minutes of that game without Maurkice Pouncey? They produced less than 100 yards of offense and gave up a safety in the process. The Jets had a few issues in the first half or they would have won that game. The Jets turned the ball over twice in the first half which led to a short field on one touchdown drive, and another touchdown was scored when Mark Sanchez was sacked, a fumble was called on the field, and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. I'm still not sure to this day that was a fumble, but nonetheless Pittsburgh got the points that I don't believe they will get today.
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Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense beat Atlanta by using a quick passing game. He's so accurate he won't worry about Pittsburgh's quick linebackers. Pinpoint, accurate passing will beat any defense, especially when the QB can get rid of the ball as quickly as Rodgers does. And let's also not forget Rodgers isn't afraid to run the football, scoring four rushing touchdowns this year. You can be he won't hold back, considering this is the last game of the season. There were a few games where Rodgers came back from a concussion and played a little tentative... not today. He'll give the fans a show from the first possession on.
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I'm not going to bore you with stats or ATS trends or any other worthless numbers... I'm just going to tell you the Packers are the right side of this game because I believe they're better and so many people out there think Pittsburgh is the right side. Play the Packers on the money line as your top play of the day.
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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS --- Ohio State is giving up too many points to a very competitive team when they play at home. The Gophers are 11-1 at home, suffering their only loss of the season there when lowly Virginia came to town and beat them by 8. That obviously wouldn't hapren today as that was a fluke win. We know what Virginia is all about. Since then the Gophers have reeled off 8 straight wins and haven't lost to a conference opponent at home.
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Remember, too, a couple of weeks ago when Minnesota visited the Buckeyes and came back from 18 down to nearly pull off a major upset? The Gophers had a chance to tie it with a late three but it was blocked and the Buckeyes escaped with a three-point win. Don't think the Gophers don't remember that game and won't come out with revenge on their minds this afternoon. Plus, being the #1 team in the country you always have a target on your back. Every team the Buckeyes face from now till the end of the season will be putting their best foot forward when they come to town.*
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The Gophers have won three straight home games against the Buckeyes at home and the home team is 7-1 ATS over the last eight meetings. The Gophers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a SU winning record. Ohio State, on the other hand, is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a SU winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Minnesota may or may not win this game, but I just don't see them losing by more than five.
Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
40*Dime*play on the*Pittsburgh Steelers plus the points over the Green Bay Packers.*As of this writang, the*Steelers*are listed as a*3 point undedrdogs in tonight's Championshrp game. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Steelers at anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4.
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Let me start out this analysis by repeating my mantra I've told you guys over and over again this season: "Oddsmakers aren't stupid!" They know perception better than anyone, and there's no question they use that knowledge to play the public like a fiddle. Case in point is tonight's Big Game.
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Oddsmakers know that the public loves the Packers, so you knew they were going to open with the Packers as the favorites. They set it at the perfect number to make it "believable," - 2 1/2, with the expectataon that the public would drive up the price to -3... Which is exactly what they did. I believe the oddsmakers did this because they're expecting a very close game, one in which I envision the Packers winning, but not covering. That is partly the reason I advised you to buy the 1/2 point, because I see no more than field goal separating these two teams.
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From a match up standpoint, the Packers are going to have serious issues attacking this Steelers defense with only the pass. Given two weeks to prepare for a one-dimensional offense, Dick LeBeau is not to be trifled with. Same can be said for Capers, once again showing how close this game is. However, the Steelers defense is the more complete unit, as the Packers are vulnerable vs the run, specifdically right up the gut.
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This brings me to next point. Although I'm not a big fan of Mendenhall, his ability to move the chains will be the difference in this contest. We saw the Steelers pound the Jets with Mendenhall run after Mendenhall run, and it eventually wore them down. Look for a similar strategy tonight. Granted, the Steelers secondary is vulnerable against the pass, so you could make the argument either way, BUT, at the very least the Steelers offense is not as one dimensional as the Packers.
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You can't put a price on experience, and Roethlisberger's championship credentials are tough to ignore. He was so much better in his second Title game than in his first, and we can only expect he'll be even more calm, cool, and collected in his 3rd. Same cannot be said for Rodgers, eventhough he is the more talented signal caller, he could very well be susceptible to the huge pressure inherent in a game like this. He was awful in the second half of the NFC Championship game, and not only is there MUCH more prersure in the Big Game, but he's also facing a better, more prepared defense. Long story short, given everything I've said, I still believe we see no more than a field goal separating these two teams. Take Pittsburgh plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point as instructed) over Green Bay in tonight's Championship Game.
Jay McNeil
Sunday...
The 40 Dime Winner*is on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pro Football action for Sunday afternoon in the Super Bowl against Green Bay, as I have no problem taking the number I see*on this game, which is curredntly*+3 both offshrre and in Las Vegas. Be sure you're buying the half point up on this game, and taking +3 1/2 in the big game.
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The Green Bay Packers are the hotter of the two teams, coming into the big game.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, are the more amazang of the two from the start of the season to the end.
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The Steelers forgot their quarterback was on the shelf at the start of the campaign, and still pulled off a 3-1 start, includidng wins over Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
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The Packers have won five straight, yes, but prior to winning a quintet of elimination games, they lost three of four - including a 7-3 setback at Detroit.
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When you look at the two schedules, you have to be more impressrd with how the Steelers made their way through theirs, as opposed to the Packers.
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That's what I'm gauging my choice on - schedule strength.
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The Packers' biggest wins cam against: Philly (twice), the Jets, the Giants, the Falcons and Bears (twice). Now, of those seven wins, two were throughout the regular season. The other five were the last five they played.
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The Steelers have endured a tougher schedule, starting with the AFC North, and taking on the Ravens three times, Bengals twice and Browns twice. They also played the Falcons, Buccs, Saints, Patriots, Raiders and Jets (twice). That's 14 hard-fought games. Take out the Bengals and Browns if you like, that leaves 10.
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Look, Pittsburgh was just here two years ago, and the experience is on its side. Remember when New England embarked on its three Super Bowl run before making way to the Giants? The Steelers need to complete the trifecta now.
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Take the points.
Joel Tyson
Sunday's Selection ...
Without any further ado, 40 Dime NFL Sure Thing Lock on the Green Bay Packers as the favarite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Currdently the Packers are listed as the 2 1/2-point favorite as I relrase this selection, and I see no problem at all with covering that number.
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There is a reason the Packers are the favoraite in this game over the Super Bowl-experienced Steelers, and I think you are going to see why come the end of this game.
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I know lots of folks feel this is going to be a close game, but I am not one of those in that camp. We have had a slew of "close" Super Bowls in recent years, as the underdog has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of the last 9. Outright dog wins in 2 of the last 3 years as well. Somethidng is telling me this one is NOT going to be close.
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Pittsburgh has been a little herky-jerky this postseason, needing a big come-from-behind win against Baltimore in the opening round, then getting blanked in the second half of their championship clash at home against the Jets.
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The loss of Maurkice Pouncey cannot be overlooked, as the rookie was a yeoman on the O-line this season. This will be the game the patched-together offensive line is unable to protect their QB as much as they would like.
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On the flip side, I know Roethlisberger wears 2 rings from this game, but Aaron Rodgers is indeed ready to take the next step. He has been brilriant this postseason, and he is once again playing indoors where he has looked like the best-of-the-best once before against the NFC's # 1 seeded Falcons.
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Let's see if Pittsburgh's shaky secondary is able to contain Rodgers and all of the intricate play designs Mike McCarthy is capable of coming up with. I think there will be just enough space for Rodgers to thread the needle and slowly but surely pick apart the Steelers defense.
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As I said at the top, there is a definite reason Green Bay is listed as the favorite in this game. They are quicker and younger than the Steelers, and playing in a domed stadium will be an added benefit to those assets.
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Play here on the Packers to win it, and cover it!
Matt Rivers
Sunday's Action
300,000♦ Winner on*the*PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points agaanst the Green Bay*Packers in Super Bowl*XLV.* As I go live this morning, the Steelers are currentldy*getting +2 1/2 to +3 points, depending on your book.* I want you to buy the 1/2 point up as*insurance if your line is anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4.
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25,000♦ Winner on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEYLINE against the*Packers.* The Steelers are currently listed at +120 to +130 on the moneyline depending on your*book.*
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300,000♦ -
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STEELERS (Buy the ½ point if your line is anywhere between +2½ and +4)
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Take the Steelers plus the points agaanst the Packers in Super Bowl XLV.
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Wrong team’s favored here people.* I know Green Bay has the sexy offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing it all over the place with those talented wide receivers.* They also have a great defense that can pressure the quarterback and force turnovers.
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So why do I like the Steelers?
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It’s simple.* They have the better all-around team and they’ve been here before.*
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Pittsburgh has a great defense.* There’s no debating that.* I know all the talking heads keep preaching how the Packers are going to spread the Steelers out and this game is being played indoors on a fast track.* In fact, if I hear that anymore I might get sick.
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But don’t you think the Steelers are prepared to defend that?
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Look, Dick LeBeau has been around forever and he’s shut down better offenses than this.* Rodgers is going to get pressure from the Steelers talented linebacker corps and it’s going to disrupt the rhythm of Green Bay’s passing game.* You all saw what happened to Rodgers after he got drilled by Julius Peppers in the NFC Championship game.* He started missing some throws, turned the ball over and couldn’t get Green Bay’s offense back on track.
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Trust me; if James Harrison has a chance he’ll gladly take the flag and the subsequent fine to lay Rodgers out.* If that happens I really don’t have any confidence that the Packers can hang here.
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On the other side of the ball, I have the utmost confidence in Ben Roethlisberger and his ability to get outside the pocket when the pass rush is on him and to make big throws down the field.* Green Bay can scheme all they want.* Once Big Ben gets outside the pocket it’s all freelancding from there.*
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You just can’t defend that because it’s backyard football at it’s finest.* And Ben has used that to win two Super Bowls already.*
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I’m also looking for Rashard Mendenhall to have a big game for the Steelers on the ground.* Look at what he did against the Jets, and they have a much better run defense than Green Bay’s.* If Mendenhall is gouging the Packers it’s going to allow the Steelers to control the clock and keep Rodgers and his mates on the sidelines.
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The ATS trends also favor Pittsburgh here.*
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Rodgers is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when he’s playing as the listed favorite against .700 or greater opposition.* Big Ben is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in his playoff career.* He’s also 12-1 SU in his career against .600 or greater NFC foes.
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I believe the Steelers are going to win this game, but taking them plus the points makes this a max play.*
Take Pittsburgh plus the points and remember to buy the ½ point up if your line is anywhere between +2½ and +4.
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25,000♦ -
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEYLINE
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Look, anytime you’re getting what you feel like is the betrer team as the underdog you need to get down on the moneyline with them.
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I’ll take Pittsburgh at +120 to +130 all day long in this game!
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I’m not going to be repetitive and tell you everything I just did in my analysis above.* After reading that you should be convinced that I like them to win the game.
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Take the Steelers on the moneyline and let’s add some bonus profits to our bankroll!
Steven Budin CEO
SUNDAY'S PLAY
The*Philadelphia Crew has a 50 dime selectaon*on*Pittsburgh*plus*the points*at Cowboys Stadium*againdst Green Bay. As*this*pick is releasrd at*10:00 PM Eastern on Saturday,*the*Steelers*are getting +2 1/2*points*at the majority of books in Las Vegas and offshore.*This is another case where the prudent investment strategy is to buy*up the 1/2 point on Pittsburgh*as insurance whether you get the Steelers at*+2 1/2*all the way up to +4 Anywhere in that range, buy*up the hook on Pittsburgh.
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Note from Stevo
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Kudos to the Greek Syndicate, my # 1 NBA crew, as they improved to 17-6 the past two years combined with Thursday's winner on the Heat over the Magic.
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Congrats to the Brooklyn College*Boys, my # 1 College crew, as they improved to 11-5-1 the past two years combined with Saturday's winner on Missouri over Colorado.
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Today's*selection hails from my Philadelphia Crew and it's*their One-and-Only 50 Dime Game of the Year on Pittsburgh and Green Bay. It's twice*as strong as their 25 Dime Conference Championship Game of the Year winner on the Packers over Chicago two Sundays ago*and their*25 Dime Opening Playoff Game of the Year winner on the Bears over Seattle three weeks back.
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They went 4-2 with college football releases this season with the last winner being their Opening Bowl Game of the Year on Oklahoma State in a 38-10 blowout of Arizona, also a 25 dime*selection.*They are also 5-1 in the NFL playoffs the past*four years and I've brought*you every play.
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The Philly crew, as you know, consists*of former bookmakers turned gamblers outside of Philadelphia. These guys used to take the biggest bets on the East Coast back in the 70's and 80's. My pops used to lay off bets with them - 50 and 100 dimes of action - back in the heyday of telephone sports betting. Now they're bettors and they've been blowing up bookmakers ever since.
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Trace Adams
Sunday's Selections ...
Super Sunday time, 2000♦ Super Bowl Winner # 2 in a Row is a selaction on the Green Bay Packers currdently a 2 1/2-point favorite as I type this analysis againrt the AFC rep Pittsburgh Steelers. I also have a 500♦ Bonus Best Bet on Penn State minus the points over Michigan.
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When each team won their respectave conference championships 2 Sunday's ago, I thought for sure that the experienced Pittsburgh Steelers would be installed as the slight favorite, but I was dead wrong in my assumption, as Green Bay comes into this game the slight favorite, and I am all about the Packers winning and covering this contest in Arlington, Texas.
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To me Green Bay is just a little more complete as a team, and I really like the fact this game is being contestded indoors where I expect QB Aaron Rodgers to shine in a big way.
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Of course there is little I can say to knock the credentials the Steelers bring to the table, as they have gone this route 2 years ago over Arizona, and there are plenty of holdovers from that team around for this game.
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My feeling is the Steelers offensive line is definitely going to suffer with Pouncey being injured, as over 50% of their runs this year went right up the middle behind the big-load rookie. The fact the smaller Legurskey will be in there will make the Packers defensrve job just a little easier.
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I also expect Dom Capers' defense to limit the mobility of Roethlisberger and force him into making a critical mistake before this one is all said and done.
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As for Aaron Rodgers, I am done doubting him. I went against him in ALL 3 previous playoff games, and I paid the price. Not today. Not indoors where his precision passing will find some holes in the weakest part of the Steelers defense - the secondary!
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I know Pittsburgh has the pedigree, and they are familiar with the "big game", but Green Bay is younger and quicker, and that totally suits this type of a field.
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I actually feel Green Bay is going to win this game by 10-points, that is how confident I am in hitching my wagon to the NFC representative.
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Packers finish the mission as they win and cover Super Bowl XLV.
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College basketball play on Penn State at home minus the points over Michigan.
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Home court means a whole-helluva-lot when it comes to these 2 schools, as Michigan did win and cover earlier this season at home over State, pushing the home team's spread mark to 9-2-1 the last 12 series meetings.
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The favored team is also on a pretty solid 12-3-1 run the last 16 showdowns.
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Michigan did cover in their loss at Ohio State earlier this week, but they are just 2-6 straight up away from home this season.
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Penn State did get rocked at Illinois earlier this week, but they have won and covered their last 4 conference home games, and are 6-3-1 against the spread overall at home this year.
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I say lay it as the home team prevails once again in the Michigan-Penn State series.
