Super Bowl Sunday Service Plays 02/01/09

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PAYNEINSIDER


30-DIME #101 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-120) (BUY 1/2 POINT) ***BETTING 36 to WIN 30*** This game PayneInsider has tried to look at with an open and clear mind. We absolutely love what the Cardinals have done, and we know better then anybody that on any given day, anybody can win. No doubt the Arizona Cardinals will be so hyped to be in this game; but when the dust settles we like the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's tough to say, but I think when it's all said and done "THE CARDINALS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE"!!! Lets face facts and reality here. You have a team in Arizona that has played in the worst division in football the entire season, and they got to play the likes of all those teams TWICE!!! I will not fall for this trap in the Arizona Cardinals, I just can not do it. They do have a very good offense, but defense wins championships and that's the bottom line. I'm not going to go out on a limb and call the Arizona Cardinals offense a fraud, but I will show you what I mean. Arizona comes in ranked 4th in the league in total offense averaging about 365 yard per game. We previously mentioned they play in the worst division and were able to play the likes of Seattle-Twice (Ranked 30th In D), St. Louis-Twice (Ranked 28th In D), San Francisco-Twice before the turnaround (Ranked 16th In D). In those 6 games with the division foes they averaged roughly 405 yards from the line scrimmage. Well over the season average by close to half a football field. Now, if you take a more in depth look when they played teams with good defenses such as the Giants, Cowboys, Redskins, Eagles-Twice, New England they averaged UNDER 300 yards of total offense a game. Pittsburgh is the #1 defense in the league and are better then any of those teams previously mentioned. I also do not have the idea out of my head that when you get pressure on Kurt Warner he likes to give the ball away. Don't get me wrong he has a quick release and is ranked very high against the blitz, but Warner has been known to drop the ball on the ground and fumble it away a few times a game. I also do not expect that running game of the Cardinals who have showed up in the playoffs to continue to have that kind of success. Which means what? A one dimensional passing team going against the #1 defense in the league...GOOD LUCK! I think Vegas knows this as well if you look at the prop bets for rushing totals they have James around 40 and Hightower around 20. The other thing I would like to point out about the Arizona Cardinals is what they do when they are not playing in the comfy confines of Phoenix Stadium. They are 4-5 on the road and in all their loses have been pretty much blow outs. They won't be able to have the home cooking behind them today as they have had in the playoffs thus far. Jumping on Atlanta 14-3 and the Eagles 24-6. They also won't get 5 Interceptions and a fumble from Big Ben like they did Delhomme. Now on the other side of it, you have Arizona coming in as possibly one of the worst defensive teams to make it to the Super Bowl. Ranked 28th in points allowed at a little over 26 a game! Again, they play teams like Seattle-Twice (28th In Offense), St. Louis-Twice (27th In Offense), SF-Twice (23rd In Offense). I think it is safe to say that Pittsburgh with a now HEALTHY fast Willie Parker, Heath Miller, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and a gang of other receivers who seem to step it up Pittsburgh will fair extremely well against this Cards defense. Just look last week, I mean come on they gave up almost 500 yards to the Eagles at home? The one thing that I love about this game is you have the Toughest team in football vs. one of the softest teams in football. You know what the Steelers are going to do, and yet they still do it to you. They out man you and out physical you. This offense didn't look great, but everyone forgot that Fast Willie Parker was injured, he makes this offense a really, really good one. The bottom line is I think you have two different classes of teams, Pittsburgh has had the toughest schedule in football all year long, while Arizona has had one of the worst! I really hope for the people out there that this game is fairly close and competitive. You have a team that has never even sniffed the super bowl, and another team that is attempting to be the best franchise in football history winning its 6th Super Bowl. Call this a square play, but I see Pittsburgh in controll all game long with a 10-13 point lead middle of the fourth quarter and they go on one of those slam it down your throat drives to end all hopes for the Cardinals and their backers! PROP BETS FOR FUN: These will not count towards record or dimes & won't be monitored (Prop Wagers Can Be Found On 5DIMES.COM) Have some fun this only happens once a year. Throw a Dime or two on a few of these prop bets... #148-Arizona Cardinals QB Sacks Made: Under 5.5 (-135)#7001-Jennifer Hudson National Anthem: OVER 2 Minutes (-200)#8001-Ben Roethlisberger pass completions -1/2 (+110) Over Sylvan Landesberg (Virginia Basketball) points
 

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SEABASS

50* - PITT
20* Under Zona/Pitt

PROPS
WARNER THROW INTER (YES)
FITZGERALD SCORES TD (YES)
EDGE JAMES UNDER 40 YARDS RUSHING
 

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big daddy's prop bet for super bowl

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20* NFL PROP



THIS BET TAKES ME BACK TO SUPER BOWL XXXIV RAMS/TITANS, RAMS SAID THEY WANTED THE BALL AND THE TITANS SAID THEY WANTED THEIR DEFENSE ON THE FIELD FIRST ... DAYS BEFORE THE GAME !!! AND VEGAS NEVER TOOK THE BET OFF THE BOARD. SAME STORY HERE, CARDINALS WANT THEIR EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE ON THE FIELD FIRST AND THE STEELERS WANT THAT PUNISHING DEFENSE ON THE FIELD FIRST. STEELERS HAVE KICKED OFF EVERY GAME THIS YEAR THAT THEY HAVE WON THE COIN TOSS ...

CARDINALS TO RECEIVE THE OPENING KICK OF SUPER BOWL XLIII (-110)

Where the hell did he get this line at?
 

Hap

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I confirm Italians Seabass, but there is one more prop.

3 consective scores by one team? YES
 
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vegas-runner | NFL Side
triple-dime bet101 PIT -6.0 (-110) Betjamaica.com vs 102 ARI
Analysis:
***** NFL SUPER BOWL 5* GAME of the YEAR *****



(BUY the 1/2 PT to -6...Because when it's on or around a Key Number like 3,6, or 7...we are always willing to lay the 10cents)



Before I break down this Super Bowl and get to the reasoning for the wager, let me first approach our FUTURE WAGER and what I am doing with it...

We have "19.5" UNITS Pending on the STEELERS ML...and to be perfectly honest, I am NOT hedging a single penny...The reason for this is because I feel that PITT ML is probably the safest bet for Sunday, and truth is...if the ML was -200 or better, that is what the 5* would be on...

Now for those who e-mailed Pregame asking what to do with the Future...I highly recommend that you go ahead and Hedge, by placing 5u on Arizona and buy the 1/2 Point to +7.5 at a shop using 7...Or at least take +7 for a couple of Units if you are in the process of building your bankrolls...

Because we have been building our fund for so long, we agreed that we are in a position where we are getting the best of it...And are more or less getting 13-1 on a -240 Fav...So although I'd love to catch a middle...as the pick suggests, I really don't think that will be happening...So let's go ahead and break this down, so you can see why if I didn't have the Future Pending, I would be making a 5* Wager on Pitt -6...



The biggest edge I believe the Steelers have is their ability to win on the road...Going 6-2, while the Cards are only 3-5 and haven't beaten anyone out of their division on the road...And we can't forget that this will almost be a home game for Pitt based on the crowd support...



Next, we all know just how big of an edge Pitt has defensively...and when it comes to Super Bowls, defense wins...6 of the L/8 SB winners had better defensive stats than their opponents...And the L/8 SB winners have allowed an average of only 17pts...

Pitt has only allowed 300+ yrds in 1 game during the regular season, and Arizona has not faced a defense with the tenacity of the Steelers...While the Arizona D has allowed more Pts in the regular season than the Texans, Seahawks, Raiders, and Bengals...



So why is the number only 6.5...Because as I've said before, there are so many rec bettors getting involved who as we know, only look at what has happend over the L/ few weeks...And the public loves Offense, and that is why they are in love with the Cards as well...But as pro's we need to look a little further back because the bigger the sample size, the more dependable the data...Which is why I acknowledge what the Cards have done in the Playoffs, but am not going to give it as much credit as many have...



Arizona comes in off 4 straight wins SU & ATS...but to do that, they needed to score 30+ pts which just isn't going to be possible against Pitt...Also Arizona passed the ball 65% of the time in the reg season, but ran the ball more than they passed it in the playoffs...And once again, that is just not going to happen against Pitt...so I expect them to resort back to their regular season form...and that's where Pitt will begin to dominate, as the Cards get more and more predictable...



The one stat that I uncovered which I find to be vital and many aren't talking about at all is 3rd Down Conversions...And Pitt has allowed only 27% on the rd, while the Cards have allowed their opponents to convert "44%" of 3rd downs...That tells me that the Pitt D will be able to take the Cards O out of any rythem, while also getting the chance to wear down the Cards D by keeping them out there longer...



The one thing Carolina did wrong was abandon the run...because they were averaging 5 yrd per carry in that game...Pitt won;t do that, which is why eventually I believe they will be able to break the game wide open...

Remember, Pitt was a Fav 13 times this season and won 10 of those SU...Arizona was a Dog 9 times this season, and won only 3 SU...The Cards had less Sacks, Rushing Yards, and Passing yards than their opponents...And if this wasn't a Super Bowl, Pitt would be closer to a double-digit fav than only 6.5...

But again, the Super Bowl line is based more on public perception because it receives more public action than any other...And it's no secret that the public is falling in love with the Cards...and while visiting the Strip Casinos. I was shocked at how many bettors weren't even taking the Points with the Cards, but instead backing them to win SU on the ML...as if this will be an ez game for them...The television has put Warner and Fitzgerald in their faces and they are eating it up...And after the Giants got there on the ML last year, I keep hearing how the Cards will do it also...

The books I've spoken to really are going to need the Steelers to win SU at the very least, because a Cards ML Win would be maybe even more devastating to them than the Giants were last year...A year where the books took a 3% loss, which is so rare for a Super Bowl...



I can go on and on forever, especially after covering this game and breaking it down for 5 different radio programs...But instead, I just wanted to put some of the reasoning behind the bet out there...and also let you know how the market is reacting, and what action is coming in...

So let me wrap this up by simply stating that I believe we are getting the best of the number...and are definately backing the best team...I see the Cards Offense getting shut down, and the Pitt Offense grinding away like we've seen them do countless times before...The Pitt 2nd-dary will be up in the receivers faces, and Warner won't have the time he needs...and it will end up more one-sided than many believe...

Finally, SB teams scoring less than 20pts are 0-24SU and 3-20-1 ATS in the Super Bowl and I really see them having trouble reaching that many points today...

Those of us who don't have the FUTURE Pending...Let's go ahead and make a 5* GAME OF THE YEAR wager on the STEELERS -6...and see them bring home their 6th Suber Bowl trophy...VR





PROP WAGERS :

(Because of the Availability and Discrepency in Prices...I am not going to put a Unit Size on these for Grading and will make them an Opinion...I made some small wagers on these all for the action and fun, and maybe we can grind out a little extra profit as well)



1.) OVER 115 RUSH YRDS for PITT



2.) OVER 5.5 REC for BOLDIN



3.) OVER 68 REC YRDS for BOLDIN



4.) 1st TD SCORED by SANTONIO HOLMES +900



5.) OVER 4.5 SACKS (Has gotten Steamed and I see 5.5 now, but if you can get better, I like this one)



6.) OVER 3 REC for HOLMES



SUPER BOWL TOTAL :



I decided to pass on the Total because I made my "True Line" 45...and that would mean UNDER...but to make the wager, I would need a bigger edge...And I didn't feel like Teasing it because I actually feel that the Teaser offering more Value is actually, PITT & OVER...So we will pass and just cheer in a Steeler Blow-Out...VR
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NELLY'S FOOTBALL PICKS
2/1/2009

Nelly's SUPER BOWL PROP PLAYS (Unrated selections for entertainment level wagering purposes only): Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald ‘Under 12.5’ yards for his first reception (-115), Arizona WR Steve Breaston ‘Over 3.5’ receptions (-105), Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller ‘Over 3.5’ receptions (-105), Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger ‘Over 17.5’ completions (-120), Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes ‘Over 3.5’ receptions (-110).

2/1/2009
5:20:00 PM ARIZONA CARDINALS (+7)
over Pittsburgh Steelers Rating: 1 units


2/1/2009
5:20:00 PM UNDER 46.5,ARIZONA CARDINALS
-vs-Pittsburgh Steelers Rating: 1 units
 
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ProfessionalGambler.
Professional Gambler Newsletter
Sunday, February 1, 2009

We have these plays today:
National Football League:
(from Tuesday's newsletter...)
CARDINALS +7.0 -112 vs. Steelers
Steelers vs. Cardinals OVER 46.5 +101

National Hockey League:
NOTE: We handicap the NHL using overtime rules
BRUINS +103 at Canadiens

National Basketball Association:
We have no NBA plays today

Comments:
Super Bowl
If you missed the "+7.0 -112" last Tuesday, (see below), we think you might still be able to get "+7.0" as game time gets closer. (The current line is +6.5.) NFL pointspreads tend to get higher as game time gets closer. Of those pointspreads that move in the hours right before the kick-off, roughly 70% of them get higher, not lower.....But if you can't get the "+7.0", we'd still take the current "Cardinals +6.5".
Here's what we wrote in last Tuesday's newsletter, when the lines were CARDINALS +7.0 -112 and OVER 46.5 +101: "We're pulling the trigger on this game because we're afraid the lines will move against us. We're expecting both the Cardinals and Steelers to score between 23 and 30 points, barring any key turnovers. We look for the Steelers to win the game outright, but we doubt they'll win by more than 7 points. How about maybe 28-23, or 27-24, or 24-23, 28-27.....Something like that. Note we're convinced there's more than a 55% chance of the game producing more than 46 total points. Turnovers might be a deciding factor in this game. Both these teams have an excellent defense, and both these quarterbacks have been known to overheat and get dancing feet. We won't use a parlay."

Good luck. - J. R. Miller<!-- / message -->
 
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Lance's Lock AKA LT LOCK

Overall record: 733-624-25
Current streak: 1 win
Todays play: The STEELERS -6'
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