DR BOB
2 Star Selection
**Virginia (+23) over DUKE
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 867
Duke is coming off a hard faught 2 point loss at Wake Forest and it will be tough for the Blue Devils to bring their "A" Game today after that battle. Duke is only 24-37-1 ATS in conference games after a loss and the Blue Devils apply to a very negative 1-37 ATS subset of a 15-65-1 ATS big home favorite situatoin that is based on their loss to Wake Forest. My ratings favor Duke by 23 1/2 points, but the situation is good enough to give up a bit of line value. I'll take Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more and for 3-Stars at +24 or more.
3 Star Selection
***CREIGHTON (-10 1/2) over Missouri State
12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 872
Missouri State is now 4-16 ATS on the road the last two seasons and the Bears are just 2-13 ATS as an underdog in conference play after losing at Southern Illinois on Thursday. Creighton has failed to cover the spread in their last two games, but the Bluejays have covered the spread in their last 16 conference games following consecutive spread losses and they apply to a solid 208-104-9 ATS situation. The possible absence of Creighton guard P'Allen Stinnett doesn't concern me much considering he shoots just 43% from the floor and has a horrible assist to turnover ratio. The Blue Jays played better than average in the one game earlier this seson that he missed, so I see no reason to adjust for his questionable status. My ratings favor Creighton by 12 points and I'll take Creighton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12 points.
2 Star Selection
**MONTANA STATE (+5 1/2) over Portland State
01:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 878
I won going against Portland State as a road favorite at Montana on Thursday and the situation is against the Vikings again today.Montana State applies to a 25-4-1 ATS subset of a 93-39-2 ATS home underdog situation that partially has to do with the fact that Portland State is coming off a loss. My ratings favor Portland State by only 4 1/2 points, so the line is fair, and I'll take Montana State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.
Sunday College Opinion
Iowa (+12) over ILLINOIS
Iowa's performance has fallen off in 5 plus games without big man Cyrus Tate, but the line has nearly caught up to the Hawkeyes current level of play and Illinois applies to a very negative 1-37 ATS subset of a 15-65-1 ATS big home favorite letdown situation (yes, 1-37!). I still don't like to give up too line value no matter how good the situation and my ratings favor the Illini by 13 1/2 points. I'll lean with Iowa at +12 or more based on the strong situation and I'll take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points and for 3-Stars at +13 1/2 or more.
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