Craig Davis
Super Bowl Lineup
75 Dime ---- CARDINALS
ARIZONA CARDNALS --- (if line is +6 ½, buy the half point to +7. If you line is +7, buy the half point up to +7 1/2 )
Okay boys and girls, it’s time to let the bankroll we’ve built up over the last 28 days start to work for us. Our NFL playoff run has been pretty remarkable and it’s time to cap it off with this HUGE Super Bowl winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for me, they’re probably mad at me for NOT backing them two weeks ago vs. Philly despite the fact I backed them in the previous two games (both easy winners). Let me make one thing perfectly clear --- this is gambling and NOTHING is ever 100% certain in gambling other than the fact there will be winners and losers and the losers will pay juice. Other than that, we’re dealing with the unknown until the game scoreboard hits all zeroes. That’s why we have to manage our money wisely. Yes, this is a HUGE play for me in the NFL, no doubt. But please understand me when I tell you I’m not asking you to take all your winnings from the last month with me and put it ALL on this game. That’s silly. Use our money management (dime) system to make sure we are playing smart. We’ll play a few bonus PROP plays a little later if you want to have a little fun with the game.
Now, why do I like the Cardinals against this Steelers vaunted defense? Well, it’s quite simply really. I’ve seen them do it too many times this season against other solid defenses and I just don’t believe they can be stopped. Sure, you can slow them at times if you can get pressure on Kurt Warner… but what about the times you don’t get pressure? What happens is you actually give Warner time to look downfield and throw the football? I believe, with complete certainty, this is the best receiving trio of WRs we’ve seen assembled together on one team, EVER!! I fully realize this Steelers’ secondary has been as hard hitting and ball-hawking as any defense we’ve seen this season, but they take chances. In my opinion, they take too many chances. And as often as it can turn into an turnover, it can turn into a big play for the offense and there’s no better “big play” offense in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals, period.
And one of the reasons I believe the passing will have success early is because the running game be able to set the early tempo. Edgerrin James might be “over the hill”, but the guy can still run and you know he’s healthy (and fresh) after having sat out much of the second half of the season. Raise your hands if you’re sick and tired of hearing the media tell us how fresh Willie Parker is? James is just as fresh and get to run behind, in my opinion, a bigger, better offensive line. Once James gets going, it will open up a plethora of options for OC Todd Haley. And speaking of Haley, is there a better offensive play-caller in the NFL right now? This guy has it figured out and just knows the right time to dial up a quick slant to beat opposing blitzes… just ask the Eagles. Philly was the third ranked defense in the league and was on a string of seven straight games of allowing 14 points or less until it visited Arizona two weekends ago. The Cardinals screwed that up royally, much the way they plan to shred the Steelers secondary in Tampa tonight.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Cardinals to roll over and die because the Steelers are going to “out-physical” them in the trenches. Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry and the front four in Arizona have been anything but a pushover for their last three opponents, racking up several sacks and shutting down the running game of Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams (although that was more self-imposed) and Brian Westbrook last week. Like I said, I’m sick of hearing how fresh Willie Parker is and there’s no way for me to think he’s going to be the difference in this game --- he’s not. In order for Pittsburgh to succeed, they MUST rely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger to find the injured Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller over the middle and downfield. Arizona’s defense is much like Pittsburgh’s, as they take chances and love to blitz from all angles and areas of the field. They led the NFC in takeaways and we all know how much Big Ben loves to give the ball away. He’s been sacked for an average of 19 YPG this season and last year when these two hooked up Arizona sacked Roethlisberger four times for -39 yards. Pittsburgh will definitely be able to throw the ball with some success, but so did Tom Brady and the Patriots last year and we all saw the results of that game.
And for those who have been telling me that the Steelers defense will be the best Arizona has seen all season and how they will be able to shut down Edgerrin James while easily sacking Kurt Warner might want to think again. Warner has been sacked for just -12 YPG this season and was sacked only twice last week by the blitz-happy Eagles. If it were up to Mike Tomlin, I’m not sure the Steelers would be a 3-4 defense, but Tomlin has left that to Dick LeBeau and his defensive staff to figure out. So far so good. Tomlin is a disciple of Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 style of defense and might get into somewhat of an internal struggle if the Cardinals find success through the air early.
And speaking of coaches, the Cardinals staff is full of guys who have coached with the Steelers at some point so you can expect them to have the upper hand, at least early on, when it comes to being one step ahead of your opponent. Remember Tampa vs. Oakland a few years back? Jon Gruden knew everything about the Raiders from the previous years and used that to his advantage in the Super Bowl. This is TOO BIG of a fact to overlook because Whisenhunt and his staff know the ins-and-outs of the entire Steelers’ organization.
They’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC for a reason and you can bet they’ll use any information they have to their advantage in this one. They’re good folks… they’re really good and they could easily get the SU win in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in two of their last four games (31 to Tennessee and 24 to San Diego) and I’m telling you Arizona’s offense is better than what this defense has seen all season. Take the points and enjoy your Super Bowl winner.
PROP PLAYS FOR FUN ---
Both Teams to Make A FG of 33 YDS. Or Longer ---- YES
Team with Most Time of Possession --- ARIZONA
Kurt Warner Total Pass Attempts --- UNDER 40.5
Will Tim Hightower Score --- YES
31-21 +200dimes
Super Bowl Lineup
75 Dime ---- CARDINALS
ARIZONA CARDNALS --- (if line is +6 ½, buy the half point to +7. If you line is +7, buy the half point up to +7 1/2 )
Okay boys and girls, it’s time to let the bankroll we’ve built up over the last 28 days start to work for us. Our NFL playoff run has been pretty remarkable and it’s time to cap it off with this HUGE Super Bowl winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for me, they’re probably mad at me for NOT backing them two weeks ago vs. Philly despite the fact I backed them in the previous two games (both easy winners). Let me make one thing perfectly clear --- this is gambling and NOTHING is ever 100% certain in gambling other than the fact there will be winners and losers and the losers will pay juice. Other than that, we’re dealing with the unknown until the game scoreboard hits all zeroes. That’s why we have to manage our money wisely. Yes, this is a HUGE play for me in the NFL, no doubt. But please understand me when I tell you I’m not asking you to take all your winnings from the last month with me and put it ALL on this game. That’s silly. Use our money management (dime) system to make sure we are playing smart. We’ll play a few bonus PROP plays a little later if you want to have a little fun with the game.
Now, why do I like the Cardinals against this Steelers vaunted defense? Well, it’s quite simply really. I’ve seen them do it too many times this season against other solid defenses and I just don’t believe they can be stopped. Sure, you can slow them at times if you can get pressure on Kurt Warner… but what about the times you don’t get pressure? What happens is you actually give Warner time to look downfield and throw the football? I believe, with complete certainty, this is the best receiving trio of WRs we’ve seen assembled together on one team, EVER!! I fully realize this Steelers’ secondary has been as hard hitting and ball-hawking as any defense we’ve seen this season, but they take chances. In my opinion, they take too many chances. And as often as it can turn into an turnover, it can turn into a big play for the offense and there’s no better “big play” offense in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals, period.
And one of the reasons I believe the passing will have success early is because the running game be able to set the early tempo. Edgerrin James might be “over the hill”, but the guy can still run and you know he’s healthy (and fresh) after having sat out much of the second half of the season. Raise your hands if you’re sick and tired of hearing the media tell us how fresh Willie Parker is? James is just as fresh and get to run behind, in my opinion, a bigger, better offensive line. Once James gets going, it will open up a plethora of options for OC Todd Haley. And speaking of Haley, is there a better offensive play-caller in the NFL right now? This guy has it figured out and just knows the right time to dial up a quick slant to beat opposing blitzes… just ask the Eagles. Philly was the third ranked defense in the league and was on a string of seven straight games of allowing 14 points or less until it visited Arizona two weekends ago. The Cardinals screwed that up royally, much the way they plan to shred the Steelers secondary in Tampa tonight.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Cardinals to roll over and die because the Steelers are going to “out-physical” them in the trenches. Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry and the front four in Arizona have been anything but a pushover for their last three opponents, racking up several sacks and shutting down the running game of Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams (although that was more self-imposed) and Brian Westbrook last week. Like I said, I’m sick of hearing how fresh Willie Parker is and there’s no way for me to think he’s going to be the difference in this game --- he’s not. In order for Pittsburgh to succeed, they MUST rely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger to find the injured Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller over the middle and downfield. Arizona’s defense is much like Pittsburgh’s, as they take chances and love to blitz from all angles and areas of the field. They led the NFC in takeaways and we all know how much Big Ben loves to give the ball away. He’s been sacked for an average of 19 YPG this season and last year when these two hooked up Arizona sacked Roethlisberger four times for -39 yards. Pittsburgh will definitely be able to throw the ball with some success, but so did Tom Brady and the Patriots last year and we all saw the results of that game.
And for those who have been telling me that the Steelers defense will be the best Arizona has seen all season and how they will be able to shut down Edgerrin James while easily sacking Kurt Warner might want to think again. Warner has been sacked for just -12 YPG this season and was sacked only twice last week by the blitz-happy Eagles. If it were up to Mike Tomlin, I’m not sure the Steelers would be a 3-4 defense, but Tomlin has left that to Dick LeBeau and his defensive staff to figure out. So far so good. Tomlin is a disciple of Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 style of defense and might get into somewhat of an internal struggle if the Cardinals find success through the air early.
And speaking of coaches, the Cardinals staff is full of guys who have coached with the Steelers at some point so you can expect them to have the upper hand, at least early on, when it comes to being one step ahead of your opponent. Remember Tampa vs. Oakland a few years back? Jon Gruden knew everything about the Raiders from the previous years and used that to his advantage in the Super Bowl. This is TOO BIG of a fact to overlook because Whisenhunt and his staff know the ins-and-outs of the entire Steelers’ organization.
They’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC for a reason and you can bet they’ll use any information they have to their advantage in this one. They’re good folks… they’re really good and they could easily get the SU win in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in two of their last four games (31 to Tennessee and 24 to San Diego) and I’m telling you Arizona’s offense is better than what this defense has seen all season. Take the points and enjoy your Super Bowl winner.
PROP PLAYS FOR FUN ---
Both Teams to Make A FG of 33 YDS. Or Longer ---- YES
Team with Most Time of Possession --- ARIZONA
Kurt Warner Total Pass Attempts --- UNDER 40.5
Will Tim Hightower Score --- YES
31-21 +200dimes
hno:Randall the Handle
Arizona +6½ +1.00 over PITTSBURGH
The stronger the Cardinals look the less respect they’re getting and frankly, I don’t give a rats ass what the stats say, the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat here and 6½ or 7 is way too many. Yeah, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs but so what. Once they got there they’ve been a powerhouse and it’s not like they haven’t beat anyone. They opened with a solid win over Atlanta and hung a 30 on a tough defense. They followed that up by blowing away Carolina, in Carolina no less against another tough defense and a stifled an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, they put up 33 points. Then they took on the surging Eagles and blew them away in the first half before they got a little complacent and saw its 24-6 halftime lead turn into a one-point deficit. In a crucial possession, down by a point and all the pressure in the world on them, the Cardinals put together one of the best drives in playoffs history; a 72-yard, eight minute beauty, capped off by a two-point conversion that left Philly with under three minutes to go. Oh, they hung a 32 on the Eagles against a defense that was playing at its peak. Now they’re getting seven points against an offense that is not even close to being as good as Atlanta, Carolina or Philadelphia. Sure, the Steelers defense is tough as shoe leather and it’s unlikely the Cards will put up 30 or more. However, to cover or win they won’t have to, as the Steelers offense leaves plenty to be desired. Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done but man, this guy takes a ton of chances in that he throws the ball up for grabs in the same fashion as Brett Favre. He’s been very lucky to have not been picked off more than he has and in this league you just can’t keep getting away with those erratic throws. My only concern in this one is the Cardinals kicking game, as punter Ben Graham shanks too many punts and if he’s kicking deep inside his own end it could give the Steelers some great field position. Having said that, I’m not going to let that deter me from taking back these points, as the Cards are playing great football and should they score first, which is a distinct possibility, the Steelers will be extremely hard-pressed to not only cover but to win outright. Finally, the last time the Steelers were in the Super Bowl in 2006, they beat the Seahawks and every reporter, fan and observer questioned the refereeing in that one. Some even went as far as saying the fix was in. The Steelers got every call and than some. They got calls that weren’t there and they had nothing called against them. You can’t take the human element out of anything and the refs are human and there’s no way they aren’t aware of the bias that was showed towards the Steelers. Some media was even calling for an inquiry into that game, that’s how biased the refereeing was. The point is, don’t expect the Steelers to get favorable calls in this one. Folks, I’m calling the upset but in now way am I passing up these generous points. Play: Arizona +6½ +1.00 (Risking 3 units).
Arizona +6½ +1.00 over PITTSBURGH
The stronger the Cardinals look the less respect they’re getting and frankly, I don’t give a rats ass what the stats say, the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat here and 6½ or 7 is way too many. Yeah, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs but so what. Once they got there they’ve been a powerhouse and it’s not like they haven’t beat anyone. They opened with a solid win over Atlanta and hung a 30 on a tough defense. They followed that up by blowing away Carolina, in Carolina no less against another tough defense and a stifled an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, they put up 33 points. Then they took on the surging Eagles and blew them away in the first half before they got a little complacent and saw its 24-6 halftime lead turn into a one-point deficit. In a crucial possession, down by a point and all the pressure in the world on them, the Cardinals put together one of the best drives in playoffs history; a 72-yard, eight minute beauty, capped off by a two-point conversion that left Philly with under three minutes to go. Oh, they hung a 32 on the Eagles against a defense that was playing at its peak. Now they’re getting seven points against an offense that is not even close to being as good as Atlanta, Carolina or Philadelphia. Sure, the Steelers defense is tough as shoe leather and it’s unlikely the Cards will put up 30 or more. However, to cover or win they won’t have to, as the Steelers offense leaves plenty to be desired. Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done but man, this guy takes a ton of chances in that he throws the ball up for grabs in the same fashion as Brett Favre. He’s been very lucky to have not been picked off more than he has and in this league you just can’t keep getting away with those erratic throws. My only concern in this one is the Cardinals kicking game, as punter Ben Graham shanks too many punts and if he’s kicking deep inside his own end it could give the Steelers some great field position. Having said that, I’m not going to let that deter me from taking back these points, as the Cards are playing great football and should they score first, which is a distinct possibility, the Steelers will be extremely hard-pressed to not only cover but to win outright. Finally, the last time the Steelers were in the Super Bowl in 2006, they beat the Seahawks and every reporter, fan and observer questioned the refereeing in that one. Some even went as far as saying the fix was in. The Steelers got every call and than some. They got calls that weren’t there and they had nothing called against them. You can’t take the human element out of anything and the refs are human and there’s no way they aren’t aware of the bias that was showed towards the Steelers. Some media was even calling for an inquiry into that game, that’s how biased the refereeing was. The point is, don’t expect the Steelers to get favorable calls in this one. Folks, I’m calling the upset but in now way am I passing up these generous points. Play: Arizona +6½ +1.00 (Risking 3 units).
SUNSHINE FORECAST
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Arizona Cardinals 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 star)
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Arizona Cardinals 18
Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers 25
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 2 Arizona Cardinals 16
Rushing Yards: 57
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Arizona Cardinals 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 star)
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Arizona Cardinals 18
Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers 25
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 2 Arizona Cardinals 16
Rushing Yards: 57
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2
Everyone talked about Arizonas defense not being able to shut down the run.
They then stifled the 2 best running attacks in the NFL, and yet they still talk about Pitts running down their throats?
Why? This stuck Irish pig is playing the Cardinals, getting 7, on a neutral field with Warner lining up under center with the old Pittsburgh offensive coordinator working the sidelines.
They then stifled the 2 best running attacks in the NFL, and yet they still talk about Pitts running down their throats?
Why? This stuck Irish pig is playing the Cardinals, getting 7, on a neutral field with Warner lining up under center with the old Pittsburgh offensive coordinator working the sidelines.
