Sunday, February 01, 2009
Handicapper: John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7/-112 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Arizona
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals over the pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLII. AiS shows an 86% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 34-19 for 64% making 22.6 units since 1983. The average play has been a dog of +123. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second ML system that has gone 94-52 ATS making 31.9 units since 1998. Play on any team versus the money line with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play and after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a third ML system that has gone 51-28 making 17.2 units since 2002. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread and with a winning record in the second half of the season. Let's take a look at some of the game dependent angles as defined by the AiS. Cardinals have a 90% probability of gaining 3 to 3.5 yards per rush and 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons when they allow 6 to 6.5 passing yards per attempt in a game and 1-8 ATS when they allow 3.0 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Much press has been made about the Steeler defense and rightfully so, but it will be the cardinals defense that will dominate this game. Steelers have an 86% probability of scoring less than 21 points in this game. note that Arizona is 12-3 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points in a game over the past 3 seasons. Even before the current coaching regime arrived in Arizona the Cardinals have nearly always done well against top level defenses. They are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992. Arizona is in a very strong role for this game noting they are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season. Based on my matchup analysis, which serves ONLY to REINFORCE the Ai Simulator grading the Steelers have no one to cover Fitzgerald in man coverage. The same unsolvable problem presents to the Steelers defense that faced the Eagles. The Eagles failed miserably in the first half and yes they did get pressure on Warner, but it did not matter. Fitzgerald is the best player on the field bar none and Warner;s experience enables him to read and feel blitzes before they happen. If the Steelers choose to double team Fitzgerald, it will once again be an easy read at the LOS. Zone blitz are set-up in close proximity to the LOS and whatever players are involved cannot then back off add help double team Fitzgerald. This simple read will enable Warner to audible to power run between the tackles just like the winning scheme against the Eagles. Let's face it Boldin will want to have his best game ever, if nothing else then to put his stellar talents on display. This WR combination reminds me of 49er Super bowl teams of the past and they will just be too much for Pittsburgh to contain for 4 quarters. I would love to discuss the Steeler side of the ball, but I also need the remaining space to give you the prop bets. In summary, Arizona will control both sides of the LOS and the Steelers will struggle to execute long scoring drives. Here are the prop bets and I would not put more than 1.5* units on any one of them. These appear on Bodog. Curt Warner needs 364 passing yards to break the All-time Super Bowl record held by Joe Montana. Take "YES" he will at +500. With that said take Curt Warner passing yards OVER 265.5. Take Curt Warner OVER a 62% completion percentage. Take Edgerrin James OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Take Fitzgerald OVER 95.5 passing yards. Take Boldin OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Also take Boldin to have more receptions than Hines Ward. Last, thank you so very much for all of your support this year and for many of you the past 15 years. It has been quite a run and look forward to even better 2009.