Super Bowl line is out. NE -3 over Atlanta

[X-Files]

"If Ryan paints another masterpiece in Super Bowl LI, the Falcons will make history as the first team ever to score at least 30 points 14 times in a season."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000778427/article/matt-ryan-playing-like-2007-version-of-tom-brady

 

[HamGlaze]

Did you know? Brady & Belichick SuperBowl margins

+3
+3
+3
-3
-4
+4

six games, a few large spreads, all decided by 3 or 4 points

And what was Atlanta's margins in their Super Bowls, I mean Super Bowl?

 

[X-Files]

Pitt had 10pts before their garbage time TD yesterday. They're a pretty good offense.

What average AFC offenses scored in the mid 20's on them? Miami week 2 and Buffalo the 2nd meeting both did so when they were down double digits. Not exactly game flow neutral situations. That is all I can see.

San Diego scored 33 on Atlanta in Atlanta. Does this mean the Pats are gonna score 50?

Philadelphia held Atlanta to 15 points and Ryan Matthews ran them over.

It's a long season, you're putting a lot into 1 specific game for some reason.

The Steelers aren't that good without their star player, Bell, as they were on Sunday.

The Ravens also scored in the mid 20's (23) on NE.

Buffalo shut out NE 16-0 in NE.

Just some fun facts.

 

[X-Files]

Coaching and QB advantage goes to NE. Patriots will shut down Julio Jones like they did Antonio Brown and they have the 2nd best run defense in the league (whether they faced good offensive teams or not that's still good) so Matt Ryan who has a career 2-4 record in the playoffs will have to target Sanu and Gabriel to beat them. Sanu is good not great, and Gabriel could drop a wide open pass as often as catching it. I think I would like the Patriots here even if the line were -6.5

Considering all this I think Atl moneyline is the bet for me

Based on your writeup i would have expected you to say NE ML.

 

[Mr.NBA]

ONLINE 01/23/2017 07:10 PM

[Ticket #: 8765309] STRAIGHT BET <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; border: none;"> </tbody> 02/05/2017 @ 03:30 PM NFL [101] NE PATRIOTS -3-115 <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; border: none;"> </tbody> 575.00 500.00 <tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; border: none;"> </tbody>

<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; border: none;">
</tbody>

 

[PatsFan1283]

The Steelers aren't that good without their star player, Bell, as they were on Sunday.

The Ravens also scored in the mid 20's (23) on NE.

Buffalo shut out NE 16-0 in NE.

Just some fun facts.

I think you're probably just going the devils advocate route because that is what you said you are doing a few posts up but even then this is a tough list.

Bell has missed 1/2 the games for the Steelers the last 2 years and their offense has still been good when he has been out.

The Ravens were down 23-3 and pretty much getting dominated until NE had 2 special teams fumbles that set the Ravens up for 2 easy scores.

And Buffalo 16-0, I'm not sure what your point is? 16 is less than mid-20's.

 

[MantisToboggan]

I think you're probably just going the devils advocate route because that is what you said you are doing a few posts up but even then this is a tough list.

Bell has missed 1/2 the games for the Steelers the last 2 years and their offense has still been good when he has been out.

The Ravens were down 23-3 and pretty much getting dominated until NE had 2 special teams fumbles that set the Ravens up for 2 easy scores.

And Buffalo 16-0, I'm not sure what your point is? 16 is less than mid-20's.

I don't think Bell would've made a difference Sunday night but he has had a huge impact on Roethlisberger's production. I saw these stats back in week 4 when Bell was coming back:

Ben Roethlisberger without Le'Veon Bell for 20 games: 33 TD's, 25 INT's
Ben Roethlisberger with Le'Veon Bell in 29 games: 56 TD's, 20 INT's


Those stats doesn't include week 4-16 of the season where Ben was 23 TD/9 INT with Bell.

 

[PatsFan1283]

The Steelers have clearly been a good offense without him. Him and Ben played like 3 quarters together last year and they still had 1 of the best offenses in the league in games that Landry Jones or Vick didn't play.

 

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

NE can score on anybody and Atlanta has been putting up points on everyone, even the good defenses. This one goes over.

 

[X-Files]

Without a decent pass rush, i don't know how NE is going to stop Atlanta from scoring every possession.
Atlanta would have to stop themselves.

 

[X-Files]

NE had the easiest schedule of all 32 teams:

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings

 

[X-Files]

"The Falcon D is crazy fast. The rush off the ends and MLB play will be the best NE may have seen all year. The ATL secondary can be had because they play so physical.....tons of PI calls.....in which could loom huge in this game."

"I dont think there is a faster D in all the NFL. The game vs Pitt is a terrible match-up. Pitt plays strictly zone D. They dont blitz alot. Plays right into a team like NE hands. ATL plays D different. They take more risk."


"I am pretty sure the Falcon O is a big mismatch vs the NE D. NE has a very large and physical front 7. Not super fast but strong. They hold the point of contact at the LOS very well. If they dont get pressure on Ryan he will pick them apart....in which the same can be said with Brady. The biggest mismatch on the field will be the ATL rushing attack vs a very physical but slower front 7. Freeman and Coleman are quick and legit. Complete different running styles that what teams like the Steelers have."


"Both teams are hot. ATL the last 6-8 games is totally different than what they were early on. I cant believe folks are not talking about missing Gronk."


http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1077733

 

[thekeyman]

I think you're probably just going the devils advocate route because that is what you said you are doing a few posts up but even then this is a tough list.

Bell has missed 1/2 the games for the Steelers the last 2 years and their offense has still been good when he has been out.

The Ravens were down 23-3 and pretty much getting dominated until NE had 2 special teams fumbles that set the Ravens up for 2 easy scores.

And Buffalo 16-0, I'm not sure what your point is? 16 is less than mid-20's.

The bottom line here is that the playoffs are a whole different season.During the regular season it comes down to special situations like consecutive road games,playing a opponent next that you are thinking of more than the one your playing(buffalo),and just so happens buffalo always gives New England a tough time in at least one game during the season,so the factors that play in during the regular season you can throw out the window cause they don't matter now.Also in the playoffs, teams like New England always get a 2 week window, and that is a lot of time to prepare for somebody,especially heading to the super bowl....so i agree with you on what you said, as you prepare differently for your next opponent and in this situation i don't think Atlanta has a top notch running back,and even with Bell going out of the game, i still would say Williams is much better than either of the Atlanta backs

 

[DesertDevil]

i still would say Williams is much better than either of the Atlanta backs

Gotta disagree here. Freeman and Coleman averaged 4.8 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively this season. Compare that with the 3.5 yards per carry that Williams had. Williams had ZERO runs over 20 yards this season as well.

Both Freeman and Coleman excellent receivers out of the backfield. They had 85 combine receptions.

Williams has a lot of miles on those tires as well. I'll take either of the Falcon backs over him. To say Williams is "much better" than either is not even close IMO.

 

[halekulani]

i still would say Williams is much better than either of the Atlanta backs

lol u gotta be joking me

 

[HuskerFan1]

if you watched atlanta at all this year you would know how ridiculous their backfield of freeman and coleman are. best 1/2 punch in all of football and its not close and like it was mentioned they can both catch the ball out of the backfield, not bell and d johnson elite out of the backfield great but both are in the tier just below them and thats saying alot b/c bell and d johnson IMO are redefining the rb position in the way they play the game and are utilized within the context of the game.

id love to be a fly on the wall in belichicks game planning with his coaches as to their approach on how they plan on slowing down this atlanta offense. that is by far the most intriguing matchup of this superbowl

 

[Akillies]

key to beating atlanta is to run the ball. BB will try an exploit atlanta's weakness by using the power run game.

to beat new england, you have to pressure brady, preferably up the middle

 

[Bourn]

Atl +3 for me

Im changing my play. NE -3. Patriots Win Big in this one. I saw a psychic on the Today show and he picked NE and Atl to be in SB week before it happened and said NE would win big. He also had in a sealed envelope that Mary Tyler Moore would die. I'm sold.

 

[KingEleven]

Im changing my play. NE -3. Patriots Win Big in this one. I saw a psychic on the Today show and he picked NE and Atl to be in SB week before it happened and said NE would win big. He also had in a sealed envelope that Mary Tyler Moore would die. I'm sold.

Slapping-silly90))

 

[Willie99]

only one team excels on both sides of the ball, and the other team is among the worst on defense

that's the difference