Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -140 over Arizona
The Diamondbacks are 5-21 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 8-20 in their last 28 games following a win, while the Phillies are 9-1 in Hamels' last 10 starts during game 3 of a series and 20-9 in Hamels' last 29 home starts, plus the Home team is 8-1 in Cuzzis last 9 Sunday games behind home plate. Brabdon Webb got of to a fine start, going 9-0 in his first 9 starts to the year, but he has reall taperedoff of late, going 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in his last 10 starts. In two of those starts he allowed 0 ER to a pathetic Washington offense. If you take those two starts out, then he has gone just 2-4 with a 5.71 ERA in his other 8 starts. He is beginning to fade. Brandon is also 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in his last 2 trips to Philly. The Phils offense has been sluggish lately, but with Howard coming around, there are signs of them starting to breakout. The Phils do score 5 rpg overall and 4.9 rpg at home, plus they score 4.9 rpg in Cole Hamels' overall starts and 6.6 rpg in his day starts. Cole is 9-6 with a 3.15 ERa overall, including 5-5 with a 2.81 ERA at home. He has been pitching very well of late, going 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Phils got rocked last night 10-4, but today I expect Cole to come out and show why he should be an All-Star, while thePhills offense will have a good showing vs a fading Brandon Webb. Phils win a good one.
2 UNIT PLAY
NY Yanks -120 over TORONTO
The Yankees are 21-6 in their last 27 Sunday games, 40-12 in their last 52 during game 3 of a series and 11-3 in Pettittes last 14 starts as a road favorite, while the Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and 0-4 in Burnetts last 4 starts as an underdog, plus the Blue Jays are 5-16 in their last 21 games with Culbreth behind home plate. AJ Burnett has had a mediocre year for the Blue Jays thus far as he is 9-8 overall with a 5.23 ERA, including a 6-3 mark with a 6.36 ERA at home and a 2-3 mark with a 5.91 ERA in day games. The Yanks haven't been hitting very well of late, but they do hit a solid .270 and score 4.7 rpg vs righty starters this year, plus they score 5.5 rpg for Andy his day starts. The Jays really struggle s southpaw starters as they come in with an 8-17 mark, while scoring just 3.2 rpg and hitting only .243 against them on the year. The Jays do score 5.9 rpg for AJ Burnett at home, but just 3.7 rpg for him in his day starts. Andy Pettite has had a fine year for the Yanks, posting a 10-6 mark wih a 3.93 ERA overall, including a 6.2 mark with a 3.45 ERA on the road. Andy has also been on quite a roll of late, going 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his last 6 starts, including a 2-0 mark with a 1.92 ERA in his last 2 road starts. The Yanks are 20-4 in game 3 of a series this year, including 8-2 if off a win and behind another strong showing from Pettite, I see both trends continuing here.