I would respectfully say you are incorrect. Al’s process doesn’t change and hasnt changed for decades. He puts in the same ridiculously work every day, with the same handicapping proceesses. He is successful and the best long term at handicapping because he takes it seriously. He does the daily grinding hard work. And we all know Al is brilliant. Complacency isn’t in Al’s DNA. And everyone who knows Big Al knows this.
Though I don't think it's appropriate to post one's own touts, I agree with your point here.
The logic of the original post seems flawed. The gist is simply "he's due" because it's improbable he can sustain an 80% win rate. I agree with that, but only because there is too much randomness in sports wagering. I don't agree that a "massive regression is on its way." Nor do I believe that "it's starting" because Big Al has already slipped to 70%.
A regression is based on an variables used in an analysis, and (more to the point) 1) the relationship between and/or among them; 2) the strength and consistency of those variables, and 3) the statistical significance of each variable. Statistical regression analysis (in my opinion) is not well suited for sports handicapping; too many influences on any variables, I don't believe that there is sufficient consistency in relying on the same variables, and none really have enough statistical significance.
Boiled down, I think gargamel's real point is sort of the converse of the "hot hand" theory. I think the theory and its converse are flawed. I agree with the point, generally, that an 80% success rate can't be sustained. But I don't agree with the cause, as the poster suggests, being a "massive regression." I think the explanation is the laws of probability.
The logic of the original poster proves too much. The original post says Big Al's picks, now, are suspect. That is more random than the picks, themselves. If nothing else, the observation, followed to the next logical step, suggests that instead of Big Al, we should instead rely on the guys who are doing poorly, because they, too, are due.
Just my opinion.
Guys, if you have opinions or disagreements about service plays, create a different thread to discuss and keep it out of the daily picks-threads
Other members please report if you see such or anything out of line
Thanks Much
Other members please report if you see such or anything out of line
Thanks Much
Been looking at this forum for years. It would be a shame if you stopped posting Big Al's picks. I for one like trying to track a few of these services and recently added him to that list. Also, I am making money from Al's picks. The funny thing about forums, you can't stop someone from posting their opinions, that's the purpose, you can however choose not to read them or ignore them.
Keep Big Al's plays available. Respect his methodology and know he puts in the requisite hours to arrive at his selections. Maybe I am impartial because I cashed a 40-1 winner in the Kentucky Derby with Al years ago. Appreciate the plays and agree with Dmazzy regarding a capper being due to win or lose based on one month of plays even though this can be a hard psychological hurddle to clear.
Marco D.
Selection: Northern Kentucky (+2.5)
Rating: D
Marco D.
Selection: Northern Kentucky (+2.5)
Rating: D
