Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday
The free college plays for Week One did very well, both the sides that made my card and the opinions that missed the cut. Today’s comp falls in between as it’s on my personal service slate but I limited it to a half unit wager.
209 NOTRE DAME at 21o TEXAS 7:30 PM
Take: NOTRE DAME -3.5
There’s no denying those off the field issues are a potential distraction for Notre Dame. It’s also an obviously enormous game for Texas on a variety of levels.
First, there’s the revenge motive. Texas didn’t just lose to Notre Dame last season, they were totally humiliated. I don’t doubt for a second that the Longhorns will be immensely focused for this battle.
There’s also the Charlie Strong factor. His coaching seat is way beyond hot. There doesn’t even seem to be any debate that anything less than a very successful season and a significant bowl game will mean the end of Strong’s tenure in Austin.
So I’m well aware of what’s at stake here, and I’ve also heard and read lots of the pre-season predictions that are calling for this to be a breakthrough campaign for the Longhorns.
I agree that Texas should be improved. But this was a 5-7 football team last year and they’re 10-14 the last two seasons. There’s a big difference between being better and rising to an elite level, and I’m just going to have to get convinced before I buy all the hype.
As for the Irish, the inexperience could be an early season factor, and as previously mentioned, I’m not dismissing the external issues. But this is still a loaded roster with some great athletes. This was also a team that just missed getting to the playoffs last year. They lost at the gun on a Stanford field goal, and if that kick misses the Irish are one of the Final Four. Their two regular season losses were by a total of four points and came against Clemson and Stanford, two of the best teams in the country. I’m not sure Notre Dame is down much at all, and even if there’s a slight decline, they still rate well ahead of Texas on my numbers.
Some sharp dollars showed up early on Texas and maybe they’re going to turn out to be as good as advertised. But I am going to trust the data and back Notre Dame. It’s not a big enough difference on my numbers to justify wagering a full unit, but I also don’t want to sit this game out. I decided to split the difference and play on Notre Dame minus the points.
Bonus Play Sunday
The free college plays for Week One did very well, both the sides that made my card and the opinions that missed the cut. Today’s comp falls in between as it’s on my personal service slate but I limited it to a half unit wager.
209 NOTRE DAME at 21o TEXAS 7:30 PM
Take: NOTRE DAME -3.5
There’s no denying those off the field issues are a potential distraction for Notre Dame. It’s also an obviously enormous game for Texas on a variety of levels.
First, there’s the revenge motive. Texas didn’t just lose to Notre Dame last season, they were totally humiliated. I don’t doubt for a second that the Longhorns will be immensely focused for this battle.
There’s also the Charlie Strong factor. His coaching seat is way beyond hot. There doesn’t even seem to be any debate that anything less than a very successful season and a significant bowl game will mean the end of Strong’s tenure in Austin.
So I’m well aware of what’s at stake here, and I’ve also heard and read lots of the pre-season predictions that are calling for this to be a breakthrough campaign for the Longhorns.
I agree that Texas should be improved. But this was a 5-7 football team last year and they’re 10-14 the last two seasons. There’s a big difference between being better and rising to an elite level, and I’m just going to have to get convinced before I buy all the hype.
As for the Irish, the inexperience could be an early season factor, and as previously mentioned, I’m not dismissing the external issues. But this is still a loaded roster with some great athletes. This was also a team that just missed getting to the playoffs last year. They lost at the gun on a Stanford field goal, and if that kick misses the Irish are one of the Final Four. Their two regular season losses were by a total of four points and came against Clemson and Stanford, two of the best teams in the country. I’m not sure Notre Dame is down much at all, and even if there’s a slight decline, they still rate well ahead of Texas on my numbers.
Some sharp dollars showed up early on Texas and maybe they’re going to turn out to be as good as advertised. But I am going to trust the data and back Notre Dame. It’s not a big enough difference on my numbers to justify wagering a full unit, but I also don’t want to sit this game out. I decided to split the difference and play on Notre Dame minus the points.
Heath Mac
Notre Dame vs Texas
Bonus Play UNDER 59
Texas will be looking to prove that last year was an anomaly and that they are a better team than their 5-7 record indicated. Apparently the attitude is on point in camp and we expect to see improvement – but not on the offensive end. More effort and intensity will lead to stops on defense, but they are still working with the same tools on offense and look weak at QB. The Longhorns will again look to gain yards on the ground behind an experienced O Line, which will run plenty of clock.
Notre Dame is solid defensively and shouldn’t have too many difficulties with a one dimensional Longhorns attack. The Longhorns likely can’t win this game in a shoot out situation, so they will look to grind out the game and hope to be within striking distance in the 4th. This total looks too high and we’ll take the UNDER.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. Big 12. Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games in September. Under is 23-10 in Longhorns last 33 games overall.
Notre Dame vs Texas
Bonus Play UNDER 59
Texas will be looking to prove that last year was an anomaly and that they are a better team than their 5-7 record indicated. Apparently the attitude is on point in camp and we expect to see improvement – but not on the offensive end. More effort and intensity will lead to stops on defense, but they are still working with the same tools on offense and look weak at QB. The Longhorns will again look to gain yards on the ground behind an experienced O Line, which will run plenty of clock.
Notre Dame is solid defensively and shouldn’t have too many difficulties with a one dimensional Longhorns attack. The Longhorns likely can’t win this game in a shoot out situation, so they will look to grind out the game and hope to be within striking distance in the 4th. This total looks too high and we’ll take the UNDER.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 vs. Big 12. Under is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 games in September. Under is 23-10 in Longhorns last 33 games overall.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jays vs Rays
5* MLB Free Pick Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have outscored the Toronto Blue Jays by an 80-60 margin in winning nine of 15 meetings this season. They're going for a sweep of this three-game set at Tropicana Field Sunday afternoon, and I like the price we get on Tampa Bay with its ace on the mound.
Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10) takes the ball for the Rays. He's 3-9 home at the Trop this season despite a more than respectable 2.61 ERA. He's held Toronto to seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits and 11 walks with 23 strikeouts through 17 innings of work this season.
Toronto turns to J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.23 ERA) who's 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his career against the Rays, and the current Tampa Bay roster has a combined .315 batting average against the left-hander. Happ has struggled in each of his three most recent turns, surrendering a total of 11 runs on 19 hits through 18 2/3 frames.
Happ is no doubt a solid pitcher, but I don't think he'll outduel Archer here. The Rays seem to up their game when facing their division rival and the team is 5-2 in its last seven vs. American League East opponents.
Blue Jays vs Rays
5* MLB Free Pick Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have outscored the Toronto Blue Jays by an 80-60 margin in winning nine of 15 meetings this season. They're going for a sweep of this three-game set at Tropicana Field Sunday afternoon, and I like the price we get on Tampa Bay with its ace on the mound.
Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10) takes the ball for the Rays. He's 3-9 home at the Trop this season despite a more than respectable 2.61 ERA. He's held Toronto to seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits and 11 walks with 23 strikeouts through 17 innings of work this season.
Toronto turns to J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.23 ERA) who's 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his career against the Rays, and the current Tampa Bay roster has a combined .315 batting average against the left-hander. Happ has struggled in each of his three most recent turns, surrendering a total of 11 runs on 19 hits through 18 2/3 frames.
Happ is no doubt a solid pitcher, but I don't think he'll outduel Archer here. The Rays seem to up their game when facing their division rival and the team is 5-2 in its last seven vs. American League East opponents.
