Sunday 9/4/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Sunday, September 4, 2016 3:00 PM

Banjo Bowl Preview: Surging Bombers visit determined Riders

REGINA — There’s something special about the Banjo Bowl.

Regardless of either team’s record, the Labour-Day classic is a passionate all-or-nothing showdown between the Prairies’ two professional football teams.

The Chris Jones era in Saskatchewan is off to a rocky start, with the Riders sitting at 1-8 at the halfway mark in 2016, but a victory at home on Sunday against the rival Bombers could lay the groundwork for a positive second half.

Winnipeg’s turnaround has been nothing short of jaw-dropping, with Mike O’Shea’s team rallying from a 1-4 start to win their last four under Matt Nichols’ leadership.

The two will meet on Sunday in Regina with plenty on the line; the Riders trying to stay remotely relevant in the West’s playoff picture, the Bombers looking to keep pace in what has been the CFL’s better division thus far.

The Bombers are arguably the league’s hottest team, winners of four in a row and entering the Banjo Bowl off a strong road performance out east in Montreal last week.

Despite his team’s 5-4 record and improved play in all three phases of late, Winnipeg head coach Mike O’Shea isn’t taking anything for granted against the last-place Roughriders.

“I’ve never even spoken about Saskatchewan being 1-8 — it’s irrelevant,” the Bomber head coach told BlueBombers.com. “They’re a dangerous football team because of the athletes they have, and the coaching staff they have: Those guys won a championship last year.”

Beyond the quarterback change to Matt Nichols earlier this season, Winnipeg’s offence has been buoyed by the explosion of its run game.

Dual-threat Bomber running back Andrew Harris has a rush touchdown in each of the team’s last four games, and leads the league with 575 rush yards.

“I’m excited, I know how crazy they get about these games,” said Harris, one of the premier national talents in the league today. “After Labour Day, that’s when the season really changes and teams take it to the next level. To kick it off with a rival game, where the stakes are higher, what better way to do it?”

Winnipeg’s consistent passing game will be boosted by the return of Weston Dressler to Bomber blue, just in time for a rematch with the team he became a star with: Saskatchewan.

“On game day, man that’s going to be really different,” said Dressler, who broke the 1,000-yard mark in five different seasons while a member of the Riders. “I’ll be running out of a different tunnel and I’m going to have to make sure I don’t run into the wrong locker room right away!”

A major key to Winnipeg’s success over the last five weeks has been its consistent victory in the week-to-week turnover battle.

The Bombers lead the league by a country mile in interceptions (18), and sit t-2nd in forced fumbles (13).

“It’s just as much the pass rush getting in the (QB)’s face (as anything),” said Coach O’Shea. “The DBs are ball hawks, and the linebackers are doing a great job. The guys recognize opportunities and try to seize them: They want to be the catalyst.”

Despite all the added hype around the Banjo Bowl, Bombers slotback Clarence Denmark believes his team sees it as just another game.

“We have to approach it that way (as) just another game,” said the Jacksonville native “I think it’s more the fans the media (that) hype it up so much; some players buy into it, but we have just to get in there, settle down and start fast.”

It’s been a tough month and season for the Saskatchewan Roughriders, but hope still permeates Riderville that a win on Labour Day could signal better days ahead.

“I think it’s just one of those phenomenons that, when you play at home in front of a pumped-up crowd, you play that much better,” Riders defensive back Graig Newman told Riderville.com. “Despite our record, I know that if we win this game, we could manage something out of the season. It’s absolutely huge for us, and for the fans as well.”

The Riders put in their best offensive shift in over a month in last week’s 33-25 defeat to Edmonton, and will be boosted by the return of receiver Rob Bagg from the injured list.

“He’s kind of the leader of that receiver core,” explained head coach Chris Jones. “He’s played multiple years in the league (and) been a very solid producer; his character, work habits, and leadership are things we’re glad to have back.”

Jones, who took over in Regina this off-season following a championship title with Edmonton in 2015, understands how important Sunday’s game is for a rabid Rider fan base.

“People love this team (and) they’re itching to see us win,” said Jones. “Any time we can strap up and get ready to play, it’s an exciting time for us.”

Veteran Rider quarterback Darian Durant understands the importance of the Banjo Bowl, and promises his team will be ready.

“It’s a special day for our province,” said the UNC alum. “The excitement in this building is always great, and we always come to play no matter the records — both teams.”

Saskatchewan will have to find a way to Bomber quarterback Matt Nichols if it’s to engineer an upset on Sunday. The Riders have struggled to create meaningful pressure on opposing pivots this season, registering a league-low 12 sacks and consequently surrendering a league-high 319 points.

That initiative will start on the D-line with the likes of AC Leonard, back after spending a game on the injured list, and Corvey Irvin. The two share the team lead in sacks with three apiece.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL*|*EDMONTON*at*CALGARY
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season
36-10*since 1997.**(*78.3%*|*25.0 units*)

CFL*|*WINNIPEG*at*SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 15
26-10*since 1997.**(*72.2%*|*0.0 units*)

CFL*|*TORONTO*at*HAMILTON
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) dominant team (outgain opp. by 1+ YPP) against a good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP), after gaining 250 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games
22-3*since 1997.**(*88.0%*|*18.7 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Fighting Irish (0-0) at Longhorns (0-0)

Date: September 04, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly apparently couldn't make up his mind about his quarterback situation and will play two.

Texas coach Charlie Strong may or may not have made a decision on his starter at quarterback, but he isn't saying who.

Such is the situation as the Fighting Irish and Longhorns prepare for Sunday's season opener at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET).

Kelly said veterans DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire will split duties for the 10th-ranked Irish, who are coming off a 10-3 season that ended with a loss to Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.

"They have both have been outstanding, they both make plays," Kelly said. "They both are playmakers. We would just continue to practice and continue to see both of these guys make plays. So we're going to play both of them at Texas."

Kelly said last season he felt a two-quarterback system was not a path to failure, whereas much coaches follow the football mantra that if you "have two quarterbacks, you have none." Perhaps Kelly is challenging both players, but he said this week he truly wants to find out if one or both are ready for primetime. Kizer replaced Zaire in the 2015 opener and helped the Irish to a 10-3 record last season. Kelly is playing his cards so close to the vest that he even said he would consider putting the quarterbacks on the field at the same time.

Though Strong didn't reveal any choice, he really has just one legitimate option.

Texas senior quarterback Tyrone Swoopes hasn't shown the ability to command the position the last two seasons. That means it will likely be true freshman Shane Buechele's turn.

If Buechele does start against Notre Dame, he will be the first true freshman to start for the Longhorns since Bobby Layne in 1944. But that's what Texas fans are hoping to see. Anything less will not sit easy, but that won't be Strong's determining factor.

"The fans, they'll be fine," Strong said. "Both of those guys are competing. It's been a great matchup. Our team's going to know who the starting quarterback is."

Those aren't the only issues with the two teams, of course

The Irish have among the fewest number of returning starters in the country after losing their top rusher, three leading receivers, four top tacklers, a sack leader and several offensive line standouts.

So Kelly is taking a back-to-basics approach.

"Chuck Noll made it famous with his football team with the Steelers, but that's true with this team," Kelly said. "If they just do the basics -- the ordinary things -- and they do them very well, this is going to be a good football team."

Strong, meanwhile, is looking for a turnaround for his Longhorns, who struggled through a 5-7 campaign in 2015 that began with a 38-3 whipping at Notre Dame.

But Strong said that the team's attitude has changed since last season as has the intensity and the bond among the players and coaches.

"We're not that team anymore," Strong said, referring to the 2015 squad. "That's not us. We're a totally different team than we were last season."

This will be the 12th meeting between the two storied programs. The Irish hold a 9-2 advantage in the series and have won all four prior games played in Austin. The Irish also have won the last five meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Notre Dame at Texas
By Brian Edwards

Two of the country’s most storied programs will take center stage Sunday night when Texas plays host to Notre Dame at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Notre Dame installed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 59.5 points, while the Longhorns were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, the Fighting Irish were favored by 2.5 points with a total of 30.5.

These schools met in last season’s season opener as well. Brian Kelly’s squad coasted to a 38-3 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48-point total. Notre Dame dominated from start to finish, enjoying a 527-163 advantage in total offense and a 30-8 margin in first downs.

Malik Zaire completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three TDs without an interception. Josh Adams ran for 49 yards and a pair of scores on just five carries.

Since Charlie Strong took over in 2014, Texas has compiled a 2-3-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Notre Dame owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite on Kelly’s watch.

Strong enters the season on a boiling hot seat. He has an abysmal 11-14 record since arriving in Austin, going 6-7 and 5-7. The Longhorns started 1-4 last season and went into the Red River Rivalry showdown as a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. However, they put together their best performance of the year and captured a 24-17 win over the previously-unbeaten and 10th-ranked Sooners.

Following a 23-9 home win over Kansas State in its next outing, Texas appeared poised to finished strong. But that notion went out the window in Ames, where the Longhorns fell to 3-5 after taking a 24-0 shellacking at Iowa St.

With a 4-6 record, Texas hosted Texas Tech needing a win to remain bowl eligible. It wasn’t to be, though, as Patrick Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 48-45 win as one-point road underdogs. In the regular-season finale, the Longhorns went to Waco and shocked 12th-ranked Baylor by a 23-17 count as 21.5-point underdogs. We should note that the Bears were playing their fourth-string QB due to injuries.

Strong’s third team brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The main issue during Strong’s tenure has been inadequate play at the QB position. Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are still around, but all indications are that true freshman Shane Buechele is going to be the starter. He left high school early in order to participate in spring practice and get comfortable in new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilber’s system. Gilber takes over as OC after guiding Tulsa’s offense last year.

Texas was deplorable on defense last year, especially for a unit being directed by Strong, who was a defensive whiz in various defensive coordinator roles across the SEC for two decades before landing his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. The Longhorns gave up 30.3 points per game last season, but it has seven of its top nine tacklers back.

This unit will be led by sophomore LB Malik Jefferson, who garnered Big Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in ’15. Jefferson recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes broken up and six QB hurries.

Notre Dame endured a horrible rash of season-ending injuries to key players last year. Nevertheless, the Irish went into the regular-season finale at Stanford ranked fourth in the nation and clearly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. It wasn’t to be, however, as the Cardinal won a 38-36 decision.

Then at the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame by a 44-28 count as a 6.5-point favorite. It was a disappointing end to the year but considering the circumstances (injuries), there was no shame whatsoever in a 10-3 SU record and a 8-5 ATS ledger. The Irish return four starters on offense and five on defense.

The QB situation is unsettled, but that’s a good thing in this instance. Zaire went down with a season-ending injury one week after looking so sharp in the easy win over Texas. DeShone Kizer stepped in as a freshman and played well. He completed 211-of-335 passes (63.0%) for 2,884 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 520 yards and 10 TDs.

Zaire led the Irish to a 31-28 win over LSU at the Music City Bowl two seasons ago. Then before getting injured at Virginia in Week 2 of last year, he had connected on 26-of-40 throws (65.0%) for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception.

Kelly has yet to announce a starter. Obviously, Kelly is confident in both players and I would expect both to see playing time.

Most of the WR group has departed, including Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Torii Hunter Jr. is the leading returning receiver after catching 28 balls for 363 yards and two TDs. Leading rusher C.J. Prosise is also gone, but Josh Adams is back following a year in which he ran for 835 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.

Notre Dame took a big hit a few weeks ago when senior free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the program following an arrest on felony charges. Redfield was the team’s leading returning tackler after making 64 stops in ’15. Without him, the Irish only has one of its top eight returning tacklers.

Also, second-string cornerback Devin Butler is out due to a suspension. He had 11 tackles and a pair of passes broken up in ’15. Starting sophomore TE Alize Jones is done for the year due to academic issues. Jones had 13 receptions for 190 yards in ’15.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Toledo QB Logan Woodside sparked his team to an impressive 31-10 win at Arkansas State as a 3.5-point underdog Friday night in Jonesboro. Woodside connected on 23-of-31 passes for 371 yards and three TDs without an interception.

-- Mississippi State has to take Week 1 honors for the most pathetic performance. The Bulldogs lost outright at home to South Alabama, 21-20. A chip-shot field goal attempt with nine seconds left hit the cross bar, allowing the Jaguars to win outright as 28-point underdogs. Money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu cashed a monster 30/1 ticket.

-- Is Houston the hottest program in the country? The Cougars captured a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as 13.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a beautiful +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450). They are now an instant contender for a berth in the CFP if they can run the table. Tom Herman’s team certainly has a number of tests in an underrated AAC, but it also gets a Nov. 17 home game against a Louisville squad that I expect to be a Top-15 type of team this year. As long as Oklahoma has a 10-win season and Louisville is an 8-or-9-win squad, Houston will be in the CFP if it goes 13-0 and wins the AAC. Trust me.

-- Another nice money-line winner came Friday when Army went to Philadelphia and pulled a 28-13 upset over Temple as a 14.5-point underdog. The Black Knights delivered a +475 payout to their supporters.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Texas

No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 59)

Notre Dame is heading into another season with National Championship aspirations and has a pair of quarterbacks leading what should be an explosive offense. Texas, which hosts the ninth-ranked Fighting Irish in the season opener on Sunday, is hoping to bounce back from a losing season and is motivated to improve.

Notre Dame’s two regular-season losses last year came by a total of four points, and the team still had a chance to go to the College Football Playoff until falling 38-36 to Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Fighting Irish began 2015 with Malik Zaire under center but watched him go down with a fractured ankle in Week 2, leading to a strong effort from DeShone Kizer the rest of the way and a battle throughout camp that has yet to resolve itself. The Longhorns opened up their own competition at quarterback in camp and declared a winner between senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele, though they don’t plan on letting the rest of the world know until Sunday. “It's just about being consistent and being progressive, and be able to know and execute,” Texas offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert told reporters of the quarterback battle. “It's like any offense - if you execute it at a high level, if you do your job at a high level, then the majority of the time you're the guy.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Irish opened as 4.5-point road favorites for their season opener, but since then the line has moved slightly in the Longhorns favor. The current number is Notre Dame -3.5. As for the total, it has been bet down slightly since opening at 60 and is currently sitting at 59.

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast during the game. There will also be a five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting towards the northwest corner of the stadium.

INJURY REPORT:

Notre Dame - DL J. Haynes (questionable Sunday, ankle), CB A. White (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), LB T. Coney (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), WR K. Stepherson (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB D. Williams (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB J. Brent (out Sunday, foot), CB D. Butler (out Saturday, suspension), TE A. Jones (out Sunday, Academics).

Texas - OL Z. Shackelford (probable Sunday, undisclosed), RB C. Warren III (probable Sunday, ankle), RB D. Foreman (questionable Sunday, hamstring), OL B. Major (out Sunday, finger), RB R. Benard (out Sunday, knee), WR L. Joe (out Saturday, hamstring), WR D. McNeal (out Sunday, suspension).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss last year to the Irish figures to have the Longhorns fully focused in this re-match. The fact that freshmen made a total of 77 starts for Texas last season brings an influx of youthful experience in 2016. With head coach Charlie Strorg just 11-14 in his first two seasons with UT, expect a big effort from the Steers tonight." - Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2015: 10-3): Zaire’s lone full game last season was the opener at home against Texas, during which he completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 thrashing. Kizer ended up with 21 passing TDs and 10 rushing scores in a breakout campaign and both quarterbacks are expected to go in Week 1, though the team has yet to decide which will take the first snap. “Haven't figured that out yet,” Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “I mean, they’re both doing the same things that we've been asking them to do, and that may be something that we discuss in the locker room. It's not really an issue for us right now. It's not something that we've contemplated.”

ABOUT TEXAS (2015: 5-7): The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now *– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.

TRENDS:

* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.
* Texas is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Independent opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Notre Dame's last 10 road games.
* Under is 23-10 in Texas' last 33 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is laying the points with the favorite, with 58 percent of wagers on Notre Dame. When it comes to the total, bettors are on the under with 62 percent of wagers on it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 4

Matchup Skinny Edge

NOTRE DAME at TEXAS...Irish won big 38-3 LY in opener. ND 9-5 last 14 on board, but only 1-4 last five as chalk away from home, 2-8 last 10 in role. Charlie just 2-3-1 as home dog past two years, and Horns just 2-7-1 in that role since 2006. Texas "under" 16-9 for Charlie.

Slight to Texas and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


Monday, Sept. 5

Matchup Skinny Edge

OLE MISS vs. FLORIDA STATE (at Orlando)...Hugh Freeze 33-18-1 vs. line with Ole Miss, 43-20-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State and Rebs. Freeze 11-5 as dog with Ole Miss and 4-1 against line vs. non-SEC LY, 14-5-1 in role since arriving in 2012. Jimbo recovered to 8-5 vs. line LY after 3-11 mark in 2014.

Ole Miss, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Horns looking for pay-back'

Notre Dame at Texas September 4, 7:30 EST

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly will have QB's DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire split duties against UT. At this writing, Texas coach Charlie Strong isn't saying but with Senior Tyrone Swoopes not showing much the past two season's it's likely QB freshman Shane Buechele will be taking snaps.

Last year, the Irish welcomed Texas to South Bend to open the campaign and laid a 38-3 beatdown on the Longhorns as 10 point home favorites with Zaire completing 19-for-22 for 313 yards and three majors. Irish losing a ton of talent off last year's squad including their top rusher along with three leading receivers no likely repeat blowout when the schools kick things off in Austin.

According to current odds the Irish are -3.0 point favorites. Trends of interest: Longhorns have traditionally started the season off on the right foot, with the team going 12-1 SU in their past 13 season opener's with an 8-5 record against the betting line. Notre Dame 5-8 at the betting window as road favorites since coach Kelly's arrival.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Frosted was upset in the $600,000 Woodward (G1) on Saturday at Saratoga and I just can’t explain the ride by his jockey Joel Rosario.

Sent off as the 2-5 chalk, Frosted broke awkwardly and ended up stalking the pace while five wide from sixth in the pack of nine.

Rosario came with an eight wide bid and Frosted swept up to draw even in the stretch with a furlong to go under very little encouragement. It appeared the jockey as going to leave plenty left in the tank for his next race.

It looks like he did, as he barely moved his hands inside the final furlong and came out on the short end of a three-way photo.

We have seen some brutal rides at the Saratoga meeting but this one may have been one of the worst. A race that could end up cosign Frosted Horse of the year honors.

And it cost chalk players plenty of cash.

Things for Rosario did not get much better in the in the following race as he dropped his stick aboard Arles in the $200,000 Glen Falls (G3) and had to settle for the runner up spot.

Well, the Racing Gods spared Rosario, as he went gate to wire aboard Hockey School to win the nightcap. I did not bet him but could not take my eyes away from the jockey just wishing the poor guy did not fall off.


Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Clm $14,000N3L (12:30 ET)
#6 Cotton Town 8-1
#3 Skill Not Luck 6-5
#4 Instant Replay 2-1
#2 Don’t Point 6-1

Analysis: Cotton Town tracked the early pace from the inside and weakened in the stretch in a fourth place finish against open $32,000 foes on turf going 1 3/8 miles. He drops into an easier spot here tagged for $14,000 and facing non-winners of three. His best effort on dirt was a fifth in the Street Sense last fall. He catches a weak group here.

Skill Not Luck also goes turf to dirt here. The colt stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth against $35,000 non-winners of three. The winner Shalako came back to beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in his next outing on Aug. 25. The Brown barn is 35% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 3,4,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 11 The Prioress G2 (6:20 ET)
#6 Coppa 9-2
#7 Off the Tracks 5-2
#10 Dearest 6-1
#9 Kareena 4-1

Analysis: Coppa chased the early pace from the three path and took over in upper stretch and held on gamely to win the Victory Ride (G3) last out in her stakes debut. She did it over a racing strip that was splaying to outside stalkers and closers. The runner up Malibu Stacy came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next outing on Aug. 18 here. She should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace and is in good hands with the D'Amato barn, Del Mar's top trainer.

Off the Tracks was part of a brutal pace duel last out in the test (G1) which set things up for the longshot Paola Queen to come from off the pace. Doubtful Ortiz does that again since he only seems to get involved in a speed duel about as often as there is a leap year. Two back this gal won the Mother Goose (G1) in gate to wire fashion. She won the Schyulerville (G3) here last summer at six furlongs.

Dearest won the Azalea last out at Gulfstream Park in a sharp effort, her fourth win in five career starts. Her lone loss came in the one turn mile Davona Dale (G2) back in February. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and her 6-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 6,7,9,10
TRI: 6,7 / 6,7,9,10 / 3,6,7,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 The Del Mar Derby G2 (5:33 PT)
#4 Moonlight Drive 6-1
#2 Blackjackcat 8-1
#1 Gold Rush Dancer 8-1
#12 Lucky Bryan 9-2

Analysis: Moonlight Drive tracked the early pace and finished with some interest in a third place finish in the La Jolla 'Cap (G3) behind a couple of foes he faces again here. The Baffert trainee was the beaten favorite two back in the restricted Oceanside on opening day in a runner up finish off a five-month layoff. He has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs and looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the bench.

Blackjackcat was a sharp Alw-1 winner last out in his first start against winners and the effort was flattered when the runner up and third place finishers both came back to win next out, Free Rose winning the la Jolla. The Glatt trainee is by Tale of the Cat out of the stakes winner Bootleg Annie ($520,726). Smith sticks and the gelding looks as if he still has plenty of upside and may get overlooked on the tote here.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,12
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,12 / 1,2,4,8,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #6 Cotton Town 8-1
R2: #9 Dancer’s Edge 12-1
R3: #2 Set to Music 8-1
R5: 32 Wine Not 8-1
R7: #2 Yowl 12-1
R7: #10 Peace Points 15-1
R8: #7 Rollover Risk 8-1
R9: #5 Royal Squeeze 12-1
R10: #10 Joyful Hope 12-1
R10: #9 Kitzys Rocket 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 4:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$11000 - NW $6000 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW9000L5 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERRED MOHEGAN SUN POCONO
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 CAULFIELD 5/2
# 1 GO TAPAIGH 6/1
# 7 CREAMPUFF MACDADDY 20/1

CAULFIELD looks really good to best this field. He has been doing work well and the speed figs are among the most compelling in the pack. This race horse has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 88 avg class figure. Should play well in this contest. Can't forget the connections here, a 33 winning percentage, one of the best at getting into the winners circle. GO TAPAIGH - Could clearly beat this group given the 79 TrackMaster speed fig earned in his most recent contest. CREAMPUFF MACDADDY - That 81 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent race puts this race horse in the mix in this race. Considered a solid wager based solely on his high win figure.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 13 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$5850 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $9,000 TO $12,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE AND SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 BEACH TERROR 3/1
# 2 I WANNA BE GEARED 6/1
# 4 EARLYMORNINARRIVAL 8/1

Hard not to back BEACH TERROR as the top choice today. Overall numbers look nice. Can't throw him out of the picture. Is a strong choice given the 81 speed rating from his most recent outing. I WANNA BE GEARED - Many horse players favor this gelding on the driver/conditioner stats alone. Talk about a dynamic duo, Gagnon and Demers have some of the best driver/trainer numbers at the track. EARLYMORNINARRIVAL - Heads into this race with great TrackMaster class markings relative to the group - could be worth a shot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 104

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 4, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 ONE MORE ROLL 6/1

# 5 CHANGING KARMA 6/1

# 4 TOO FAST TO PASS 5/2

ONE MORE ROLL is my choice. His 90 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figs in this competition. Has been racing solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. No strangers to the winner's circle, Spawr and Delgadillo ought to have this gelding breaking away from the field. CHANGING KARMA - Is a solid contender - given the 102 speed figure from his most recent race. Has been consistently running well lately. TOO FAST TO PASS - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this field. Has to be considered against this group displaying very good figs lately and an average speed fig of 94 under similar conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Central Wyoming Fair

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 94

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, WESTERN STATES JUVENILE S. - FOR QUARTER HORSES TWO YEARS OLD. $200 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. FIRST PREFERENCE TO ELEVENTH THROUGH TWENTIETH FASTEST QUALIFIERS IN THE WESTERN STATES FUTURITY TRIALS. SECOND PREFERENCE TO REMAINING NON-QUALIFIERS BY FASTEST TIME IN TRIALS. PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 40% TO WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 7% TO FOURTH, 5.5% TO


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 DASHIN HAPPY 4/1

# 5 COOL BAY CHICK 8/1

# 7 HEZA LACEY J JR 3/1

DASHIN HAPPY supports the bet in here. Has earned sound speed figures in short races in the past. His 84 average has this gelding with among the most competitive speed figs for this race. He has a good opportunity in here as conditioner, Spencer, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. COOL BAY CHICK - Reason to like this filly as she has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. This filly gets a boost with Cervantes in the saddle. HEZA LACEY J JR - He has been running strongly and the Equibase speed figs are among the most respectable in this group of animals. Is a key contender - given the 85 speed rating from his most recent race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:01pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#5 BREACH OF DUTY (ML=8/1)
#6 HY RAPID LADY (ML=3/1)
#2 JILL'S COMPRISE (ML=7/2)
#3 LADY ANN (ML=5/2)


BREACH OF DUTY - This horse looks like a potential overlay in this race at M/L odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Gulfstream Park but was close at the end. A wise man taught me to wager on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this one. Ranked numero uno in earnings per race. Another indication that this equine is the class of the race. HY RAPID LADY - Hernandez and Douthall partnered together are a railbird's friend. I like that most recent outing on August 21st at Gulfstream Park where she ran first. 68-70-79 are last 3 speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this event. JILL'S COMPRISE - Jockey hops up atop after getting to know the horse by riding last race out. That's always a good tip. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. This filly is in nice condition. Ended up third on August 26th. LADY ANN - Filly's win percentage is better than 50 percent in first and second starts off a layoff. Looking at today's class rating, this horse is up against an easier bunch than in the last race at Pimlico.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ANGORA (ML=9/2),

ANGORA - Difficult to bet on this pony this time. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. Didn't end up on the board on June 17th at Gulfstream Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 BREACH OF DUTY is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with [2,3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

5 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

5 with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] with [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #11 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 6:24 PM

The Prioress Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $300,000.00 PURSE

#7 OFF THE TRACKS
#9 KEREENA
#2 LUCY N ETHEL
#6 COPPA

Well folks ... The Prioress was named after the first American-bred and owned thoroughbred to win in England. A daughter of Sovereign, out of the Glencoe mare Reel, Prioress was descended from the Darley Arabian line and was foaled in South Carolina in 1853. The bay filly was purchased and taken to England in 1856 by Richard Ten Broeck; there she won the Great Yorkshire Stakes and the Cesare Witch Handicap in 1858, taking the latter in a runoff after finishing in a triple dead heat. First run at Jamaica in 1948, the Prioress moved to Aqueduct Racetrack in 1959, and then to Saratoga in 1987. Here in the 69th running of this graded stakes event, #7 OFF THE TRACKS has hit the board in each of her last five outings, winning twice, and comes off a "POWER RUN SHOW" finish in her last start, missing a "Circle Trip" in that race which was contested at today's TrackMaster Class Level of 111 by just a length at the wire. #9 KAREENA, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her four career starts to date, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#3 YENOM NEVE (ML=3/1)


YENOM NEVE - This jock and handler have a favorable return on investment when they join forces. Looking at today's class figure, this pony is encountering an easier field than last out at Presque Isle Downs. You have to really like that most recent race figure, 57, which is the highest recent race speed rating of this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SANTOS SYMPHONY (ML=7/2), #1A TWO TIMER (ML=4/1), #1 MAJESTIC TOUCH (ML=4/1),

SANTOS SYMPHONY - If you keep selecting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned most every time. 7/2 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent efforts. TWO TIMER - The pace configuration just isn't too promising for this speedy one. Many other horses would have to scratch to aid her chances. MAJESTIC TOUCH - All types of crazy early speed entered for this race. Little chance for this speedy one. Not likely that the speed figure she recorded on July 26th will be enough in this affair.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 YENOM NEVE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DDLohaus’ Saratoga analysis

Sunday’s picks

Can’t make a big move scratching out of the first two Bets; I guess it’s a positive that we didn’t lose…
Another loaded gun with some plays that have some nice potential payoffs…

Race #2
$10WP There Goes Ben

Race #4
$5WPS Commandeering

Race #6
$10WP New York’s Finest

Race #8
$10WPS Momentiempo

Race #12
$5WPS Salty Mo

Total Bets: $100.00
Meet Total: – $693.00

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (2nd) Midnight Skies, 5-1
(5th) Russian Partisan, 7-2


Belterra Park (5th) Radiant Ruby, 5-1
(8th) Aurora's Secret, 5-1


Canterbury Park (3rd) Aaron's Belt, 8-1
(5th) Illuminatingappeal, 6-1


Del Mar (4th) La Galy, 6-1
(5th) Stand by for News, 7-2


Ellis Park (2nd) Hope to Shine, 6-1
(6th) Derecho Warrior, 9-2


Emerald Downs (1st) Kenzie Blake, 6-1
(4th) Wedgey Time, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (7th) Administer, 7-2
(8th) Californiasunshine, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Extrovert, 5-1
(8th) Fair Prospect, 7-2


Monmouth Park (4th) Short Kakes, 4-1
(7th) Thatta Boy Girl, 6-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Bret's at Caddies, 7-2
(3rd) Leather and Lacey, 4-1


Parx (2nd) Water Tower, 9-2
(6th) Jazz Age, 8-1


Presque Isle Downs (5th) Sixers City, 7-2
(7th) Big Wednesday, 6-1


Saratoga (2nd) Mr. Sam, 3-1
(9th) Scarly Charly, 6-1


Suffolk Downs (1st) Stormin Margaret, 4-1
(6th) Jeb, 3-1


Timonium (4th) Mr. October, 3-1
(5th) Manakin Road, 8-1


Woodbine (5th) Nineteen Sixteen, 6-1
(10th) Mizz Feebie, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne: Sunday 9/4 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (18 - 31 / $89.80): SHEZ SO SASSY (9th)

Spot Play: LADY’S ART (7th)


Race 1

(6) RED HOT ART dominated a similar bunch last week and will look to make it three straight. (4) BROOKLYNITE is probably the only threat to the top choice. (5) EVERGREEN ELITE is the morning line favorite, but is not in the other choice's class as of yet; use underneath.

Race 2

(8) MISSISSIPPI RABBIT is a lightly raced pacer that has room to improve in his fourth career start with a big driver change. (7) STRAIT RATE went a nice effort for his first start on the big track; threat. (3) DADDY LET ME DRIVE showed some improvement last week pacing a personal best.

Race 3

(3) DP ANGEL is having a tough year but is way down in class. (4) THE REAL TONE has been competitive against tougher on the year and picks up a huge driver change. (6) CARMEN O is probably best used underneath while facing tougher.

Race 4

(3) SNEACRET HANOVER is a pacing bred trotter that was sharp in the qualifier and looks to offer value. (5) HONESTLY has yet to win in 12 starts. Well bred 3-year-old filly finds a weak bunch to do some damage. (1) LITTLE MISS MOUSE faces older but looks to have some ability.

Race 5

(5) WAUKEGAN gets sent out for a hot barn off a huge effort, just missing at this level. (6) POCKET PARTY has just been racing evenly as of late but owns closing ability with a good setup. (7) JETHRO picks up a big driver change off a nice effort.

Race 6

(5) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH just missed against the same bunch last week while racing gamely. (7) FEETONTHEDASHBOARD has proven herself against this bunch and will offer good value. (6) YOUNG AMERICAN scored off a perfect trip last week, exploding late.

Race 7

(4) LADY'S ART needs a good setup but can fly late in the right scenario. (6) PHYLLIS JEAN faces older, more seasoned opponents, but looks to have a lot of talent. (5) OUR MISS LILY will look to drop and pop for capable connections.

Race 8

(4) BEST MAN HANOVER has been facing much tougher at Hoosier. If the pacer is on his game he can dominate this bunch. (7) SIR MAMMO isn't always consistent but is one of a few threats in the race. (8) MONTERO BLUE CHIP has been very sharp as of late; driver's choice.

Race 9

(2) SHEZ SO SASSY has made the most money in the field on the year. The trotting mare looks to offer a good price and should be in line for a great trip. (1) IT'SASWAN was the driver's choice after picking up the best starting post. (5) HEY MARCEL put in a really nice effort last week after being shuffled; threat.

Race 10

(5) MIGHTY HOT SHOT doesn't win often but should find this spot much easier. (8) GOTTA GO ANDY gets sent out for a hot barn against a suspect field. (10) MAJOR ED set a lifetime mark a few starts ago but would need another turnaround.

Race 11

(5) TERRORIZE THE MOON has set two life marks in two races. The pacer bumps up slightly but could have more to offer. (7) TWINKLE LIKE A STAR will offer a big price and can hit the ticket with a good setup. (6) JERRICO is well bred and taking a big drop down in class; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

September Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Much like our waistlines after a tasty Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate September, the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL crash onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail.

The question is which ones can we count on and which ones figure to be candidates for offseason Weight Watchers meetings?

Check it out.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s September’s list.

Enjoy the games.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 12-2 (8-1 H)

For nearly two full seasons, Arrieta has been as good as it gets in baseball as a starting pitcher. While strikeouts have been down a bit and walks are up of late, at this time it hard to find fault with a hurler who has opposing batters hitting below .200 against him and has a 2.84 ERA to start the month.

Cole, Gerrit - 14-3 (6-0 H)

The Pittsburgh ace has frankly had a mediocre injury-plagued season and on August 27th had an MRI on his elbow, which revealed no damage. If Pirates the are going to snare a third consecutive Wild Card bid, they will need the Cole of the past two years. Note: Cole’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

*Grenike, Zack - 13-3 (7-1 H)

Greinke's ERA is higher than past year's but pitching in thinner air of Arizona has contributed to this. While the Diamondbacks have little too play for, expect Grienke to be tough as nails like usual.

Hamels, Cole - 12-5 (6-2 H)

Need a big game pitched in September? It’s hard to go wrong with Hamels, whose ERA of 2.91 is well below career mark of 3.26. Still owns lively fastball and changeup is knee-buckling. A true professional.

*Jimenez, Ubaldo - 12-1 (6-0 H)

Still toeing the rubber every five days or for Baltimore in spite of mid-sixes ERA. Baltimore has few options and Jimenez is not trustworthy in the bullpen either. Orioles need big month from their big man to reach the playoffs and this is his best month.

*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (6-1 A)

Kershaw threw in simulated game on August 30 and later said "feeling really good" and if all goes well, the Dodgers hope Kershaw can pitch in September and beyond in some role, which only makes the Dodgers a bigger threat. Best pitcher in baseball.

Kluber, Corey - 10-3 (5-1 A)

Has been back to Cy Young form since the All-Star break with an ERA under 2.00 and Cleveland has won his last six outings. When he commands both sides of dish with fastball, for whatever reason, his curveball has more break. A true established ace for the Tribe trying to win the division.

Koehler, Tom - 10-5 (5-1 A)

Been very effective in a quiet way nationally, but has been extremely dependable for two months leading to this month for Miami, supplying six to seven solid innings per start. If he's throwing strikes inside to batters, he’s tough to hit. Note: Koehler’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of September.

Peavy, Jake - 11-3 (5-1 H)

Went on DL in late August with lower back strain. Had been working out of bullpen most of August and future status with San Francisco is as cloudy as the weather in the Bay.

*Price, David - 12-5 (7-2 H)

After a largely below season in Boston, Price has been much sharper in latter stages of August, which is what the Red Sox need. What has changed is Price became more effective in keeping the ball lower and is getting more fly ball outs as a power pitcher, which are genuinely more routine.

*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-3 H)

After a somewhat slow start, Scherzer has been getting better and better and base hits allowed are well below innings pitched (128 vs. 190), yet walking few batters (45), especially compared to strikeouts (238). Back to pacing around mound like the king of the jungle.

*Shields, James - 13-4 (8-0 A)

It has been a wild ride for Shields this season, with numerous hideous outings blended in with several sharp ones. At this stage, hard to think the 34-year righty can duplicate the past seasons.

Strasburg, Stephen- 9-4 (5-1 A)

Starts the month on the DL after some very ugly starts last month. If Washington is to do anything in the postseason, Strasburg needs to regain early season form, which features moving fastball and big breaking curve.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 11-4 (6-2 A)

If rehab assignments go well, September 10th is target date for return. Zimmermann has not been very effective for quite some time and easy to forget he had ERA of 2.45 in mid-May, compared to current 4.44.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Hellickson, Jeremy - 2-10 (1-5 H)

All things considered, Hellickson has not had a bad year in Philadelphia. However, upon closer inspection, most of his numbers are now near career norms and if that ends being the same this month, real bet against potential.

Leake, Mike - 5-10 (1-7 A)

The Cardinals right-hander has been a lot like his teams, when Leake has been good, he and St. Louis have generally won, when not they have too often lost badly. Cards are hoping not to see a repeat performance from the veteran.

Ross, Tyson - 3-11 (1-6 A)

Started on Opening Day and has not been seen since for San Diego with bum shoulder. Still trying to work way bad through rehab. Probably best to forget 2016.

*Sale, Chris - 2-12 (0-8 A)

It is almost unimaginable Sale could have a record like this in September, yet he does. Part of it is the White Sox offense is too unreliable and Sale's miscues end up being quite costly. Let's see what the final month brings for the big lefty.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinals (70-62) at Reds (55-77)

Game: 3
Venue: Great American Ball Park
Date: September 04, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

CINCINNATI -- St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny isn't ready to concede the National League Central title to the Chicago Cubs even though the magic number is dwindling by the day.

"Not backing off that," Matheny said.

Still, the Cardinals are very much in the thick of the playoff chase, holding a two-game lead over the New York Mets for the second NL wild-card spot entering Saturday.

Despite the Cardinals' rash of key injuries, Matheny is pleased with his team's position despite the outside noise to the contrary.

"It does feel like we're a last-place team with some of the stuff you hear," Matheny said. "We have high expectations from our fan base, our organization, and for ourselves. Sometimes it gets a little out of sight how well these guys are doing."

St. Louis wraps up a three-game series in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon.

Right-hander Carlos Martinez will start Sunday's series finale against the Reds at Great American Ball Park. In two starts this season against Cincinnati, Martinez is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in seven innings. In his career, Martinez is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA in four starts against the Reds.

Martinez struck out a career-high 13 batters through six innings in his last start on Aug. 29 at Milwaukee. He has given up one run in each of his last three outings.

Cincinnati will counter with right-hander Tim Adleman, who will make his eighth career start on Sunday and first against the Cardinals.

Adleman is 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A Louisville on Aug. 16.

Adleman is in his second stint with the Reds this season, going 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in his first four career starts before suffering a strained left oblique that landed him on the disabled list. He's one of 11 Reds players this season to make their majorleague debut.

The Cardinals hope to have Mike Leake back with the ballclub Sunday. Leake has been on the disabled list following a bout with shingles. The infection is gone, but the right-hander is working to regain his strength. Leake, a former Red, is expected to arrive in Cincinnati by Sunday morning and throw a bullpen before the game.

Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina was given a day off Saturday, so Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton will have to wait until Sunday to resume wreaking havoc on the veteran backstop. Coming into Sunday, Hamilton is 23 of 25 on stolen base attempts against Molina. His 23 steals are the most by any player against Molina. Hamilton began his career 10-for-10 against him.

Cincinnati hopes to have second baseman Brandon Phillips back in the lineup. He missed Saturday's game after fouling a pitch off his left foot. It's yet another in a series of injuries suffered this season by the Reds second baseman.

Despite a 9-1 loss on Saturday, the Cardinals have won 19 of the past 25 series between the clubs. In the past 12 series at Great American Ball Park, St. Louis has gone 8-5.