Sunday 9/28/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys

Bonus Play Dallas Cowboys +3

Credit to New Orleans for rebounding from their 0-2 SU ATS road start with a workmanlike 20-9 victory over Minnesota! In that contest, the Saints outrushed the Vikings 108-59 en rout to a 396-247 yardage edge. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were surviving St. Louis (34-31) despite the fact that St. Louis held a dominant yardage edge of 448-340. After trailing 21-0 to the Rams, the comeback tied the franchise record for the biggest comeback in history. Fundamentals aside, the team trends of these foes are most compelling. With HC Payton roaming the New Orleans sidelines, the road team is just 5-39 ATS, including 2-17 ATS recently in New Orleans’ contest. Fitting nicely with that dichotomy is the record of the underdog in Dallas’ games, which is now a lofty 41-16 ATS. Should these trends persist, the Cowboys are clearly the play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Bonus Play Green Bay Packers

Chicago limps home after two back-to-back gutty road victories, using a huge second-half to upset San Francisco and getting past the Jets this past Monday night.

What awaits the Bears is a hungry Packers squad that will get its prolific offense in gear in this matchup. The Bears could be down eight starters. Their secondary is down three starters, including both safeties. They don't have the secondary depth to handle all of Green Bay's receiving weapons.

The Packers didn't fare well last week on the road against the Lions, who also had multiple injuries in the secondary. There is a difference here, though. The Lions can stop the run ranking No. 2 in the league holding foes to 63.7 yards per game. Seattle also is dominant against the run ranking No. 5. The Jets are No. 1 versus the run holding opponents to a meager 55 yards on the ground. Those were the Packers' first three opponents and a big reason why Eddie Lacy has rushed for just 113 yards and 3.1 yards per carry.

Chicago ranks 26th in run defense giving up an average of 144.7 yards per game. The Bears were 30th in yards allowed and points given up last year. Their defense remains weak, made more so by injuries although good-looking rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller makes the loss of Charles Tillman easier to swallow. Fuller has been outstanding so far, but perhaps no cornerback in the league was as adept at causing turnovers as Tillman.

This is Lacy's first easy game and he's helped by having right tackle Bryan Bulaga, an excellent run blocker, back in the lineup. The Bears are going to be forced to commit both of their safeties to pass coverage opening things up even more for Lacy. Rodgers is even more deadly with ground support, something he hasn't had so far.

The Bears are going to put up their share of points, too, but I don't see them being able to keep up with the Packers. Jay Cutler has had some brutal games against Green Bay with the Packers' veteran defensive coordinator Dom Capers effectively confusing him with different blitz packages. Capers is 8-1 against the Bears and Cutler.

Brandon Marshall is not 100 percent bothered by an ankle injury. He was limping during the Monday night game against the Jets catching only pass for six yards. The Bears are down two competent offensive line starters with center Roberto Garza and left guard Matt Slauson unlikely to be recovered from high ankle sprains they suffered three weeks ago.

Chicago used to have outstanding special teams with Devin Hester returning kicks/punts and Dave Toub coaching. But Toub left two years ago and the Bears' special teams have gone from great to bad under Joe DeCamillis.

Green Bay has covered in six of its last seven meetings versus the Bears with the lone loss coming last year in Green Bay when Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone early in the game. The Packers have won in their last four visits to Solider Field.

This is a very short trip for the Packers. Sometimes the Packers haven't taken the Bears as seriously as the Bears have taken them, but yet still have managed to win. This time the Packers will be treating this game as crucial not wanting to lose a second straight NFC North Division game.

The Bears have been a real money-burner at home going 3-12-1 ATS. They haven't matched up well to the Packers even when healthy and now they're in a dangerous situation. This is the right spot for Green Bay.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

Bonus Play Atlanta Falcons -3

The Falcons are usually not a great road team, but the traveling early in the year to the Vikings should be no problem for them. Vikings will be without 2 of there top offensive weapons in AP and Kyle Rudolph. Also Teddy Bridgewater will be making his first NFL start and that usually doesn't bode well for rookies.

The Falcons have taken the last two meetings with Minnesota.

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games vs the NFC and 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oliver Alonso

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers

Bonus Play San Francisco 49ers -4.5

I expect that a lot of bettors have fell off the 49ers bandwagon. That's just the way I like it. Granted the 49ers have some deficiencies on defense compared to recent years. However this is still a very good football team, and is very capable of hanging a big number on the board offensively. After looking horrible in attempting to stop the run during their season opening loss to Buffalo, the 49ers have allowed an average of just 2.9 yards per rush in their previous 2-games.

They hold a huge +2.9 rush differential over the Eagles heading into this game. The Eagles are coming off consecutive 3-point wins, and had to rally from 17-0 down in their season opener versus Jacksonville. I'm sure there will be many out there that are thinking they're getting an absolute steal with the Eagles this week. I'm not one of them. Any home favorite of 9.5 or less in game 4 of the season or beyond, coming off a straight up favorite loss, versus an opponent coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they scored 35-points or more in their previous game, 16-1 SUATS since 1984.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Adams

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Bonus Play Baltimore Ravens

If you watched the Sunday night game you saw the Panthers get completely outplayed on their own home field. This is an example of a team that things went right for the first couple of weeks. They beat the Bucs week 1, a team that is an absolute disaster. Then they went and got the victory over the Lions, but the Lions really beat themselves in that contest. Carolina was a team that I was significantly down on coming into the year, and now is the time to “Fade” them as they are likely to be a bet against squad for much of the season.

This offense has significant problems. Other than Rookie Kelvin Benjamin, there is no threat at the wide receiver position. DeAngelo Williams is hurt and Jonathan Stewart got banged up on a tackle that forced him down awkwardly. So suddenly the Panthers are depleted at running back, a position in which they’ve had so much depth in previous seasons. Cam Newton is also suffering from hurt ribs as well as a hurt ankle. Don’t expect much from this offense Sunday.

The Ravens are a unit that plays much better at home. They had a momentum building last second win against the Browns, and that positive energy will translate into this contest. Baltimore has some issues of their own that need to be worked out, but they remain much better than the Panthers at this point. Home field advantage plays a big factor here and the Ravens get the cover. Take the Ravens.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Williams

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Your free NFL winner is on the Green Bay Packers -1 over the Chicago Bears.

R-E-L-A-X that's Aaron Rodgers word to the Packer faithful. Rodgers, who suffered his collar bone injury last year against the Bears, will be facing a different Bears defense this year. Bears could possibly be down 8 starters from the defense including both safeties. Perfect spot for Rodgers to get the sputtering Pack offense back on track.

Bears off two tough road victories head back home after MNF win over Jets. Packers 1-2 can't fall further behind the Lions and Bears in the NFC North. Packers have won last four trips to Chicago. And are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs. Bears.

So many times in the NFL spot plays are highly effective. This is a bad spot for the Bears. Packers and Rodgers will be out for revenge from last years loss when Aaron went down. Packers in a need to win spot this early in the season. Bears off two tough road wins. Are dealing with numerous injuries on the defense. Plus WR's for Bears are banged up. Going to be tough for Cutler to keep up.

Expect Rodgers and his receivers to light up the Bears secondary. Take the Packers as your free winner on Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Lions vs. NY Jets

Play - NY Jets (Game 262)

Edges - Jets: 6-0 ATS home after facing the Bears, and 15-2 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games. Lions: 1-8 ATS away of home with home on deck, and 2-17 ATS 2nd away game of season. With the Flyboys having out-gained Chicago 414-257 yards in Monday night’s loss to the Bears, and standing 12-1 ATS off Monday night games when facing .500 or greater opponents, we recommend a 1-unit play in the Jets. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

5* Minnesota Vikings

* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game. I prefer making this a 5* play using the money line. The risk-reward profile of a combination wager using the line and ML jointly is not nearly as strong based on probability based ROI analyses. The Teddy Bridgewater era begins sooner than expected, but I strongly believe he is fully prepraed and confident making his first start at home at TCF Stadium. Bridgewater replaced Cassel in last week’s game against the New Orleans Saints and performed well considering the circumstances. On the 11 drop-backs where Bridgewater was under pressure, he completed four of six passes for 54 yards and ran three times. He also performed well when blitzed by going 6-of-9 for 70 yards without taking a sack. Bridgewater has an excellent offensive line to protect him. It is led by center John Sullevin, who has been one of the NFL's best in recent seasons - certainly among the top-3 in each of the past 3 seasons. In pass blocking grades, he is already better than in any season of his career. The Falcons enjoyed a route in their last game against the Bucs, will have a much more difficult time getting pressure consistently on Bridgewater. Matt Ryan is off to a blazing start with his deep ball accuracy. Yet, he now will have to pay very close attention to one of the best safeties in coverage defense in NFL in Harrison Smith. The SIM shows that the Vikings will gain a minimum of 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Vikings are a solid 12-3 ATS over the past three seasons (1-0 ATS this season) when they have gained 125+ rushing yards. Take the Vikings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Detroit Lions vs. NY Jets

Sunday 5* FREE NFL Play Detroit Lions -2

The Lions never get any respect. Detroit is taking their show to Broadway to face the Jets and should be favoured by a bit more than a couple of points. The Jets no longer have the cover corners to bother Megatron much and if they double up too much the Lions will burn them in other ways.

Detroit is no juggernaut but the Jets have done little to indicate the only difference between these two is home field advantage.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Allen Sports

SUN FREE Selection

MLB: TB RAYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders 1:00PM

Bonus Play Oakland Raiders

Reason: I'm recommending a play on the Oakland Raiders, plus the points on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins' offense are struggling badly. Tannehill is averaging the lowest amount of yards per pass of any NFL starter so far this season. They can't go deep and doing nothing but dinking-and-dunking is not the way to get the job done in the NFL. You have to be able to test deep waters and stretch defenses, but the Dolphins have been unable to do so. The Raider defense has played well against the pass, ranked 4th in the league, making Miami's chances of turning things around this week unlikely. Oakland contained the Patriots' offense, holding them to 4.2 yards per play in last week's 16-9 loss after having been within 1 point of the Pats early in the fourth quarter. Miami allowed 34 points in a 19-point home loss to KC last week and they have not rebounded well, going 0-5 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. With the turmoil at QB and decent defensive play from Oakland, we expect the Raiders to give the Dolphins more than they can handle. I'm recommending a play on the Raiders, plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens 1:00PM

5* Carolina Panthers

Reason: 5* Play on Carolina. The Ravens came out of their gauntlet against three straight division opponents pretty well - going 2-1 including a win in their lone road game at Cleveland last week. Carolina started off the season very good with a 2-0 mark but looked lost on Sunday night in a big loss against the Steelers. We'll back Carolina to bounce back this week and beat the Ravens outright.

Carolina got away from their game plan and finished Sunday's loss with only ten rushing attempts - far below the 24 and 33 rushing attempts they had in the first two weeks. It wasn't just the offense, as their rush defense also fell apart allowing Pittsburgh to run for 264 yards after holding Tampa Bay and Detroit to 172 rushing yards combined. We don't have much faith in the Ravens offense, who now play without tight end Pitta, Baltimore is in a letdown spot anyway coming off those three straight division games. Panthers get back on track with a close outright win and move to 9-1 ATS in the road underdog role! 5* Play on Carolina.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Tussle in Windy City'

A battle between NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers (1-2, 0-2-1 ATS) and Chicago Bears (2-1 SU/ATS) is Sunday's NFL betting focus. Division games are tough. Spotting road points within the division is dangerous. This scenario is amplified somewhat when you consider the Packers' offense is struggling registering just 18.0 points/game. Still, got to like Green Bay's chances. The Pack have cashed 6 of 7 in the series and own a money grabbing 13-3 ATS mark last 16 trips into Chicago. The most compelling numbers in Packers’ favor are those compiled by Chicago in the circumstance they find themselves in today. That's because Chicago is a cash draining 2-11-1 ATS last 14 at Soldier Field and for whatever reason of late, when facing a divisional opponent the Bears have managed a pathetic 1-8 record against the betting line. Have Bears' collide with a division foe during the first month of play, they're a cash draining 1-6 ATS. Finally, Bears 5-8 ATS when home dogs of 4.5 or less, home underdogs off MNF on the road 5-9 ATS the numbers point to Packers being the right choice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Sunday, September 28

Trend Report

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Cleveland's last 24 games at home

1:07 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Baltimore's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:08 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Minnesota

1:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY METS
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 9 games at home

1:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

1:35 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

1:35 PM
MIAMI vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

1:35 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 11 games on the road
NY Yankees are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games at home

2:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games when playing at home against Kansas City

2:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

3:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Texas
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Texas is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
San Francisco is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

4:10 PM
COLORADO vs. LA DODGERS
Colorado is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Colorado is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Dodgers's last 12 games
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games

4:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of St. Louis's last 16 games
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

4:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Angels's last 12 games on the road
LA Angels are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels

 

[sportsjester]

Any Goldsheet, LTS OR WRITEUPS?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST SPORTS (Power Sweeps)
ATLANTA
San Fran
NY Jets
PHI/SF – Under
BUF/HOU – Over
GM/CHI – Under
DET/NYJ – Over
TB/PIT – Under

 

[wolf0fvegas]

Looks like a good day from there crew. Looking for

Philly Godfather
Rooster
Tiger
Sheep

 

[Gummo]

Anyone have Prediction Machine? Thanks

 

[sportscrazy]

If your looking for that many, Buy some!

 

[yankees10]

Pgf ?? Tia