Sunday 9/28/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 4 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia

Thanks to differing opinions about the importance of the NFL's preseason and our proclivity to let the first two weeks of the regular season pass without getting too high or low about results, the wait-and-see approach works for most in September.

Until Week 4.

Now that it's officially Fall and the next batch of games arrive in October, most will find it OK to lose their collective minds over what's gone down thus far. You'll hear the old cliché about how championships can't be won in September, but they can certainly be lost. Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen may be working to keep his job in London, since losing to the Dolphins and dropping to 0-4 may result in his dismissal. Six teams are already in the midst of their bye week. Taking it easy would seem like the last thing anyone would be talking about in NFL circles.

Still, Aaron Rodgers found it necessary to spell out a friendly service announcement for Packers fans to "r-e-l-a-x" on his weekly radio show appearance Tuesday, assuring listeners that an offense which isn't moving as fast as they intend will live up to expectations once everything comes together. He sounded like a hypnotherapist, channeling his Ben Stein voice and preaching patience. It's a nice sentiment, undoubtedly reassuring for Cheeseheads everywhere to hear the face of the franchise try and provide some reassurance, but the message will ring hollow if another loss is the result in Chicago.

And yet, if Rodgers hit Packer nation with a dose of "chillax" following a loss to the Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday, he'd be well within his rights. There would be hope, especially with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in play.

Last year's Philadelphia Eagles opened 1-3, losing 52-20 in Denver during Week 4. They recovered to win the NFC East, becoming the 24th team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to reach the postseason in spite of a losing record through the first four games. The 2001 Patriots overcame the slow start to win the first of three Super Bowls in a four-year span. 36 percent of 2-2 teams have reached the playoffs since '90, while the number for 1-3 squads slips dramatically to 15 percent.

Who knows if Rodgers is aware of all this? Undoubtedly, he'd prefer to escape the opening month at .500, but with seven games left at Lambeau Field over the remaining three months, there will certainly be opportunities to make up ground. New Orleans is in the same boat, left with seven scheduled Superdome dates following Sunday's visit to Dallas. Though rightfully favored to get to 2-2 against the surprising Cowboys, having those home games in their back pocket and Drew Brees slinging the rock guarantees they'll remain in contention so long as he remains healthy.

So, is there a true must-win situation to try and isolate in Week 4 for those of you who like to financially back a heightened sense of urgency?

By my count, there are a whopping nine situations where a team should feel more of a sense of desperation to make sure they walk off the field a winner than the ones facing the Packers and Saints. Although head coaches Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton may respectfully disagree, keep in mind that the 1992 San Diego Chargers remain the lone team to survive an 0-4 start and still reach the postseason, so digging out of that hole is practically impossible.

Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are expected to wind up 0-4 come Monday morning. Both will likely be starting a different quarterback than the one that has lined up under center the past three weeks, since Mike Glennon is expected to fill in for Josh McCown at Pittsburgh, though the veteran hasn't ruled himself out despite a thumb injury that should sideline him a couple of weeks. Rookie Blake Bortles gets the nod at San Diego, despite Jaguars coaches and management having been adamant that they intended to redshirt the first QB taken in this past June's draft behind veteran Chad Henne.

Franchise-wide panic hasn't set in because coaches Lovie Smith and Gus Bradley are firmly entrenched, but as far as this season is concerned, you can write these two off with a loss. Jacksonville has already declared its youth movement underway, but the Buccaneers expected to be part of the playoff hunt far longer than the first few weeks.

Oakland faces the potential obstacle of a winless first month out in London against Miami, another team that can't really afford another loss this early. While the Raiders are fighting for stability since Allen's future is in jeopardy, the Dolphins face an uncertain future at QB with Ryan Tannehill currently being snubbed by head coach Joe Philbin, who has refused to give his young signal-caller a vote of confidence. It's a peculiar development, painting Miami into a corner overseas since a loss means it will head into a bye week with backup Matt Moore probably being handed the reins amid two weeks of questions and no games to deflect attention from a potentially divisive situation.

Philbin is likely trying to motivate Tannehill into quicker decisions, but is taking a major gamble if things don't work out at Wembley Stadium. The possibility exists that Moore comes to Miami's rescue and creates a seamless transition, but it's already an upset that the Raiders seem to have a more stable situation at the game's most important position with rookie Derek Carr.

As unfair as it might be for second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater, he joins Bortles in also looking at a must-win in his first NFL start, but does so under far more dire circumstances. The drama of continuing a season in the wake of the Adrian Peterson scandal falls squarely on his shoulders now that Matt Cassel is done for the season. After an unbeaten preseason and an impressive Week 1 road rout of St. Louis, the bottom is on the verge of completely falling out if they fail to defeat Atlanta at home. The Vikings are forced to play at Green Bay next week, so there is no grace period for Bridgewater as he attempts to keep pace with a Matt Ryan-led offense.

Four other quarterbacks are in positions where they realistically can't afford a loss to be taken seriously as a playoff contender entering October. Barring injury, only one of them is realistically in danger of being replaced. Head coach Rex Ryan publicly went to bat for Jets starter Geno Smith following his error-filled effort on Monday night, hoping to squash Michael Vick rumors before they start swirling out of control.

Whether you want to place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg or the depleted receiving corps that has lacked a true No. 1, Smith has had more interceptions returned for TDs (6) since entering NFL than anyone in the league. His completion percentage while facing pressure is also the lowest among starters. He's turned the ball over on the brink of reaching the end zone in every game thus far. With Detroit in town and a cross-country trek to San Diego scheduled next week, this looms as a potential deal-breaker as far as his status as the franchise quarterback is concerned, especially if Ryan's future is tied to this season's results. Vick's mobility and veteran approach is going to look like a more appealing alternative with every errant Smith throw or turnover, so this Lions game is about as crucial as they come for any team in Week 4, blowing any pressure Green Bay or New Orleans face out of the water by comparison.

San Francisco and Indianapolis harbor Super Bowl aspirations, so they can't realistically afford to fall too far behind. The 49ers do benefit from seeing a number of defensive standouts return in the season's second half, but that won't help them this week against the NFL's most explosive offense. Nick Foles has thrown for 978 yards through the first three contests, which puts an emphasis on Colin Kaepernick and an offense that has been shut down by Chicago and Arizona in the second half of consecutive games, outscored 38-3. The Eagles have outscored opponents 74-24 thus far in 2014, so San Francisco will need to reverse a trend to end September in decent shape.

Andrew Luck's Colts are in far better shape with Tennessee coming tontown, especially since the Titans are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Indianapolis went 6-0 in AFC South games last season and look like the class of the division again, but with games against Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh scheduled for October, it's important to take care of business and avoid a 1-3 start.

The final team faced with a critical Week 4 contest hosts the Patriots on Monday night. Coming off an immense road win in Miami, Kansas City is forced to keep the underwhelming Patriots from finding a rhythm at Arrowhead. Not only are the Chiefs expecting to have Jamaal Charles back, they'll be watching their Alex Smith-Charles-Dwayne Bowe triumvirate take the field for the first time in 2014. So why is it a must-have for a team that won 11 games a year ago? Well, beyond all their defensive injuries, there's the fact that the Chiefs have challenging road games at San Francisco and San Diego surrounding a bye week on tap over the next three weeks. In other words, with Kansas City listed as a home underdog for only the second time in two seasons (Denver, Dec. 1), oddsmakers have the team pegged for 1-5 start.

Indeed, there are teams far worse than the Saints or Packers. Not that the Green Bay quarterback can afford to take his own advice as he look to keep his team from faltering at Chicago.

Relax? Don't do it. Rodgers would just have more ways out of a 1-3 hole than most.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David

Week 3 Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 9-7 in each of the first two weeks of the season, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 in Week 3 but those results were aided with some late scoring bursts. Bettors who had the ‘under’ in the Texans-Giants, Chiefs-Dolphins and Steelers-Panthers matchups all witnessed 30 or more points score in the second-half.

Of those three games that rallied to go ‘over’, the Kansas City-Miami outcome was the luckiest win as the Chiefs punched in a meaningless touchdown with 19 seconds left and head coach Andy Reid could’ve and probably should’ve taken a knee. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ holds a slight 25-23 edge (52%).

Streaks to Watch

The Browns, Colts and Eagles have all watched their first three games go ‘over’ the number.

Teams in action on Sunday that have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 are the Bills, Vikings and Titans.

Live from London

The NFL International Series continues this season with not one, not two but three games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London, England. Due to the travel and unfamiliarity with the venue, this game started out as a great ‘under’ wager but the pendulum has swung to the ‘over’ recently. The last three years, there have been combined points of 52, 61 and 52 points, all resulting in ‘over’ winners.


NFL International Series History (2007-2014)

Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders -
2014 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons -
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -


This Sunday, Miami and Oakland will collide and the total is listed at 41 points. There were rumors about a change at quarterback for Miami this week but Ryan Tannehill will remain the starter. Despite his struggles, the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 for the Fins this season which has been helped with the defense allowing an average of 27.6 PPG. It’s hard to imagine Oakland’s offense getting past that number this Sunday considering it’s scored 37 combined points in three games and 14 of those points came in garbage time.

Divisional Battles

Including the Giants-Redskins matchup on Thursday, we only have three divisional battles on tap this week, the last two slated for Sunday.

Green Bay at Chicago: Last week, the Packers played at Detroit and bettors were starting at a high total even though the ‘under’ was on a 5-0 from Ford Field. Sure enough, the game was a clear-cut ‘under’ winner. This week, the Packers head to Chicago and the total is hovering between 50 and 51 points. The last 10 meetings between these teams have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The ‘over’ has cashed in two of the last three head-to-head meetings but the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Side players should note that Indianapolis has won nine of 10 in this series and four straight since Andrew Luck took over QB duties for the Colts.

Total System

I’m not sure when this system will lose but until it does, I’ll keep bringing it to your attention. For those new to the weekly “Total Talk” column, this angle was sent to me via a passionate bettor and VegasInsider.com user (A86), which is always welcomed, and it’s been very profitable.

Including last week’s ‘over’ winner between Baltimore and Cleveland, the record now stands at 16-2-1 (88.8%) dating back to last season.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Personally, I thought this angle was going to lose last week and if it wasn’t for a late field goal in t, it would’ve. However, I could also argue that both the Browns and Ravens left points off the board and you didn’t need to sweat late in the game.

This week’s ‘over’ play is on the Atlanta-Minnesota matchup since the Falcons hosted the Buccaneers on Thursday in Week 3.

At first I thought the opening number (47) was too high but all of Atlanta’s totals have been in this neighborhood and we’ve already seen what the Falcons can do offensively when they’re clicking and it’s nice to have a weapon like Devin Hester on special teams.

I would be a little worried about the Vikings, who have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 this season and the offense has only scored a combined 16 points the last two weeks. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater got some reps last week against the Saints and he has no pressure on him. It does hurt not to have Adrian Peterson in the backfield and the Vikings also lost tight end Kyle Rudolph (groin) last week. Still, Bridgewater can spin the ball and I hope the Vikings let him loose.

Lastly, Atlanta’s defense is far from great and it’s always been vulnerable on the road. The gave up 24 points to the Bengals in Week 2 on the road and Cincinnati left at least three scores off the board. Last season, the Falcons allowed an average of 29.7 PPG outside of the Georgia Dome.

Under the Lights

If you’ve been betting the ‘over’ in prime-time games this season, congratulations! After watching the Giants blast the Redskins 45-14 this past Thursday night, the ‘over’ now owns an 8-2 record in games played under the lights.

New Orleans at Dallas: This game opened at 52 ½ and has jumped to 53 ½ at most shops. The Saints have played two games on the road and have allowed 37 and 26 points, both ‘over’ winners. New Orleans wasn’t sharp offensively last week and only scored 20 points against Minnesota, which raises some eyebrows. If you are looking for a lean to the ‘under’ you could point to the Dallas running game. The Cowboys are ranked third in rushing yards per game and somebody on the sidelines is starting to realize that if QB Tony Romo doesn't throw the ball 30-plus times, Dallas has a better shot at winning. These teams are familiar with one another, meeting three of the last four seasons. The Saints have won all three games and the ‘over’ cashed in all three as well (49-17, 34-31, 30-27), two of the victories coming in Dallas.

New England at Kansas City: This is a tough total to handicap and I would lean ‘under’ but it’s rare to see New England’s offense look sluggish two weeks in a row. The Patriots went through the motions last week and barely beat the Raiders while the Chiefs dominated the Dolphins with their ground game. Kansas City still has a lot of holes on defense, which would lead you to believe that New England will exploit them. However, the Patriots try to be too cute at times, especially running the football. Both clubs have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 this season but no glaring trends stick out here as these teams haven’t meet since 2011.

Fearless Predictions

Three weeks in the books and the deficit is up to $240 and it could be worse. Even though we have less games in Week 4, I believe we can get into the black this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Minnesota 47
Best Under: Buffalo-Houston 42
Best Team Total: 49ers Over 27.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Atlanta-Minnesota
Over 41.5 Philadelphia-San Francisco
Under 54 Jacksonville-San Diego

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 4
By Matty Simo

Two divisional games in Week 4 of the NFL season have seen the biggest line movement so far, but for much different reasons. The betting public looks to be all over the Green Bay Packers heading into their NFC North showdown with the Chicago Bears on Sunday while a potential change of quarterbacks has impacted the line in an AFC South matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts.

Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said he feels the public is overreacting to a “desperate” Green Bay team “needing” to win at Chicago in order to keep pace with the Bears and Detroit Lions in the division. The Packers opened as 1-point road favorites against Chicago and have been bet up to -2.5, although Avello said he does not think the line would get to -3.

“They don’t look good right now,” Avello said of Green Bay. “Sometimes you watch a team like this, you say, here’s Aaron Rodgers, won a Super Bowl, looking like a team that’s going to be a contender for many years to come. And it doesn’t work out. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, maybe all the components around him that make this team work, maybe they’re not there. You start to question them a little bit.”

On the other hand, Avello said this is a great opportunity for the Bears to go out and take an early two-game division lead on their bitter rivals. Chicago does not play another divisional matchup until after its bye in Week 9, visiting the Packers, hosting the Minnesota Vikings and traveling to Detroit in three of the following four games.

“I think last week against the Jets was a pretty good game for them,” Avello said. “The game before that, they were a little lucky. But this is a game where they can possibly make a statement in the division. You win a game like this, you put this Green Bay team on its heels. That’s what you kind of want to do. Cutler’s a good quarterback, he’s just not a consistent quarterback.”

Maybe the public is just betting on a more consistent QB in Rodgers over the inconsistent Cutler, who is just 1-9 lifetime against the Packers. In Indianapolis, the Colts opened as 7-point favorites off their first win of the season and host a Titans team that is likely to start a different QB in veteran Charlie Whitehurst, who is expected to replace the injured Jake Locker (wrist).

“I just took that game up to 8.5,” Avello said after news broke that Locker was questionable but unlikely to play on Sunday. “That’s because of that announcement. Another thing in that game is that Indianapolis picks up a wide receiver who wasn’t sure he was going to play in T.Y. Hilton.

“So you have one guy out, you have another guy being added to the Colts, and it all points to raising the spread. I think the players will bet Indianapolis this week.”

Another QB change will take place in Minnesota, where the Vikings will give rookie Teddy Bridgewater his first career start against the Atlanta Falcons as 3-point home underdogs. With Matt Cassel out for the season with a foot injury and All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson still battling legal issues, the Falcons have moved up slightly after opening at -2.5. Avello said Minnesota’s offensive struggles are compounded by Peterson continuing to be out, putting even more pressure on Bridgewater.

“Now you’re relying on this kid to do more than what’s really expected of a rookie,” Avello said. “If you have Peterson, you give him the ball, and then you let your quarterback throw on first down sometimes for surprises, you let him throw on third down when you need four or five yards. But when you’re putting the weight on Bridgewater to carry this team to a win, it’s tough.”

One of the marquee games later in the day will see the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles have won five of the last six meetings with the 49ers both straight-up and against the spread, and they have also won six of their past seven road games. San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite at The Wynn and has received a little support up to -5.

“The Niners don’t deserve to be a 5-point favorite, but you have to look at the spot,” Avello said. “The 49ers have lost a couple in a row, they’re going to be home now. They don’t lose much there.

“Maybe Philly’s a little complacent being 3-0, not a division game for them. Even though Philly’s scoring a lot of points, they’ve been giving up a bunch too. The 49er offense is definitely going to be able to move the ball here. This is one of those games where the 49ers probably won’t have the spread covered early, but maybe in the fourth quarter they’re able to keep scoring.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 4 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
251 DOLPHINS 3.5 3.5 0
252 RAIDERS - - -
253 PACKERS - 2 -
254 BEARS 0 - -2
255 BILLS - - -
256 TEXANS 3.5 3 -0.5
257 TITANS - - -
258 COLTS 6.5 8 1.5
259 PANTHERS - - -
260 RAVENS 3 3.5 0.5
261 LIONS 1.5 2 0.5
262 JETS - - -
263 BUCCANEERS - - -
264 STEELERS 8 7.5 -0.5
265 JAGUARS - - -
266 CHARGERS 11.5 13 1.5
267 EAGLES - - -
268 49ERS 4 5 1
269 FALCONS 2.5 3 0.5
270 VIKINGS - - -
271 SAINTS 3.5 3 -0.5
272 COWBOYS - - -
273 PATRIOTS 3.5 3 -0.5
274 CHIEFS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-2) at CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

Line and Total: Green Bay -1.5, Total: 50

Two division rivals clash on Sunday when the Bears host the Packers.

Green Bay had a miserable outing in Detroit last week, losing 19-7 and finishing with just 223 total yards. The team should move the football much better against a depleted Bears secondary. Getting RB Eddie Lacy (113 rush yards, 3.1 YPC, 0 TD) back on track would be a big boost for the Packers. Marc Trestman, however, will have RB Matt Forte (136 rush yards, 3.2 YPC, 0 TD) more than ready to run against a defense that is allowing 156.0 rushing yards per game. Chicago is coming off a 27-19 victory over the Jets on Monday night, but this club has been dominated by Green Bay recently, as the Packers are 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the past eight meetings, including 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the past four trips to Soldier Field. Although the Bears are 1-8 ATS under Trestman when facing poor defensive teams (350+ YPG allowed), the Packers are 12-23 ATS under Mike McCarthy when playing poor passing defenses (7+ YPA allowed). The big injury to watch in this game is Bears WR Brandon Marshall, who will likely be a game-time decision with his injured ankle. LBs Clay Matthews (groin) and Brad Jones (thigh) are listed as questionable for the Packers in this game, while safeties Chris Conte (shoulder) and Ryan Mundy (stinger) could be out for the Bears.

Green Bay had seemingly found their offense in a 31-24 victory over the New York Jets, but they followed that up with a 19-7 loss in Detroit. QB Aaron Rodgers (697 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 5 TD, 1 INT) was just 16-of-27 for 162 yards with one touchdown in the contest. He is relied on to do a lot more for his team and will likely do much better against Chicago, who he is 9-3 against (SU and ATS) in his career with 236 passing YPG, 21 TD and 8 INT. He should find some more success against a Bears defense ravaged with injuries, especially in the secondary. RB Eddie Lacy rushed for just 36 yards in the loss to Detroit, but the Packers must get him going, as this was supposed to be a breakout year for the former Alabama star. He needs to be more decisive with the football and attack a Bears defense that is allowing 144.7 yards per game on the ground (26th in NFL) on 5.1 yards per carry (25th in league). WR Jordy Nelson (23 rec, 351 yards, 1 TD) followed up his 209-yard performance against the Jets in Week 2 with five catches for 59 yards against Detroit. He will constantly find ways to get open against this banged-up secondary for the Bears. The Packers defense will need to focus on slowing down a potent offense. Green Bay is allowing 156.0 yards per game on the ground (30th in NFL) and that could be a problem with Matt Forte coming to town. The Packers have been solid against the pass this season, allowing just 198.3 yards per game through the air (6th in NFL), and they’ll need to keep up that solid play with a matchup against Jay Cutler coming up.

The Bears started their season with a 23-20 overtime loss in Buffalo, but have since turned it around by beating the 49ers 28-20 on the road in Week 2 and then earning a 27-19 victory on the road versus the Jets on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler (750 pass yards, 6.2 YPA, 8 TD, 2 INT) was brilliant for the Bears last week, going 23-of-38 for 225 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He will need to carry this momentum into this matchup with a solid Packers’ secondary whose defense is coming off of a game in which they held Matthew Stafford to zero touchdowns while picking him off twice. WR Alshon Jeffery (16 rec, 223 yards) had his best game of the year in Week 3, hauling in eight passes for 105 yards. He had been dealing with a bad hamstring, but looked the healthiest he has all season. The Bears will be relying on him Sunday, but no player is more important to the team than RB Matt Forte. Chicago has not run the ball that well all year and now has a matchup against a Green Bay defense that is 30th in the league in rushing defense. The Bears will need to feed Forte the ball often in order to dominate the clock and let him eat up yards. They did exactly that last season, and Forte recorded 336 total yards and four touchdowns in the two meetings.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-1) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1)

Line and Total: Baltimore -3.5, Total: 40.5

A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Sunday when the Panthers head north to take on the Ravens.

Carolina lost 37-19 at home against the Steelers on Sunday night, as it allowed Pittsburgh to run for 264 yards on 7.8 YPC. The Panthers now face a Baltimore running game that has rumbled for a hefty 317 yards on 4.6 YPC during its two-game win streak. The Ravens went into Cleveland last week and won 23-21 on a field goal by Justin Tucker as time expired. They will have their work cut out for them defensively, facing a Panthers offense that is throwing for 259.7 yards per game (10th in NFL). Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS all-time versus Baltimore, and over the past three seasons, the club is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The Panthers are also 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their previous game since joining the NFL in 1995. The Ravens, however, are 9-4 ATS coming off a division game and 3-0 ATS off two straight division games over the past three seasons. Baltimore RB Bernard Pierce (thigh) and Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams (thigh) are both expected to return to action after sitting out Week 3, but the Panthers will be missing two other running backs in Jonathan Stewart (knee) and Mike Tolbert (leg).

Cam Newton (531 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) was 24-of-35 for 250 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions in a 37-19 home loss to the Steelers last week, but he also lost a fumble in the game. Newton has thrown the ball well since returning in Week 2 from his cracked ribs, but he has rushed just six times all year. He should have a good game from a throwing standpoint, as he’s up against a Ravens defense that has not defended the pass well all season, allowing 5.84 net yards per pass attempt (26th in NFL). One major bright spot for the Panthers this season has been WR Kelvin Benjamin (16 rec, 253 yards, 2 TD). The rookie wideout caught eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Steelers, and has been the Panthers’ top option on the outside this year and should be in for a big game against the Ravens. Carolina, however, will need to get its ground game going. The club is rushing for just 72.3 yards per game as a team (29th in NFL), but that could be boosted if RB DeAngelo Williams (72 yards on 5.1 YPC in Week 1) is to return from a thigh injury. The Panthers have been excellent defending the pass this year, allowing just 201.7 yards per game through the air (8th in NFL). They will need to keep up that relentless play with a matchup against Ravens QB Joe Flacco (728 pass yards, 6.0 YPA, 4 TD, 2 INT), who has 122 passing attempts this season (4th in NFL).

The Ravens came away with a gusty 23-21 victory over the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday. Their running attack was excellent in the win, totaling 160 yards and a touchdown as a group. They should run the ball plenty against a Panthers team that is allowing 145.3 yards per game on the ground (27th in NFL) and just got shredded by the Steelers running backs. RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (91 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 1 TD) should be the guy who gets the bulk of the workload after rushing for 91 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against Cleveland, but RB Bernard Pierce (113 rush yards, 4.0 YPC) and Justin Forsett (189 rush yards, 6.3 YPC, 1 TD) will also be involved in the ground game. WR Steve Smith Sr. (18 rec, 290 yards, 1 TD) continues to be a huge playmaker for the Ravens with 16.1 yards per reception. He caught five passes for 101 yards in the win over the Browns last week, and will be playing with some extra intensity on Sunday when he faces his former team. One player who needs to break out of his recent funk is WR Torrey Smith (6 rec, 85 yards, 0 TD), who had just two catches for 25 yards against the Browns. He is having a very disappointing season after compiling 1,128 receiving yards in 2013. Baltimore’s defense has been average this season (352 total YPG, 16th in NFL), but has been much better versus the run (88 YPG on 3.6 YPC, both 8th in NFL) than defending the pass (264 YPG, 25th in NFL). As long as the Ravens can make Cam Newton uncomfortable in the pocket, they will have a very good chance to win the game.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-0) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2)

Line and Total: San Francisco -4.5, Total: 51

The 49ers look to get back to .500 on Sunday when they host the undefeated Eagles.

Philadelphia has yet to put together a complete game of good football, but is still 3-0 after a 37-34 home victory over the Redskins in Week 3. San Francisco fell to 1-2 after a 23-14 loss to a Carson Palmer-less Cardinals team. The Eagles will try to speed this game up, but the 49ers may attempt to control the clock in order to prevent QB Colin Kaepernick (694 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) from turning the ball over. Since 1992, the Eagles are 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS versus the 49ers, which includes an impressive 6-3 SU mark (7-2 ATS) in San Francisco. However, Jim Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS versus defenses that allow 260+ passing yards per game since becoming the Niners head coach, and his team is also 18-5 ATS off of an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992. But Philadelphia is 18-7 ATS in road games after being outgained by 100+ total yards since 1992. TE Vernon Davis (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for the 49ers while LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) is questionable for the Eagles, who have serious offensive line issues with C Jason Kelce (hernia) out, OT Lane Johnson suspended and OT Matt Tobin (ankle) questionable to play on Sunday.

Philadelphia is off to a 3-0 start in 2014 despite not playing its A-game. The Eagles have struggled in the first halves of their first three games, but have rallied to win in each of them. QB Nick Foles (978 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) was huge in the Week 3 victory over the Redskins, completing 27-of-41 passes for 325 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Foles will need to take care of the ball against a ball-hawking 49ers’ secondary. He also needs to get rid of the football quicker, as he took some gigantic hits last week that almost left him sidelined. RB LeSean McCoy (175 rush yards, 2.9 YPC, 1 TD) was completely ineffective against the Redskins, rushing 19 times for just 22 yards. The team will definitely make it a goal to get him back on track against the 49ers. The Eagles’ defense has not been good this year. They are allowing 26.0 PPG and are getting picked apart through the air, allowing 280.3 passing yards per game (30th in NFL). They will need to put pressure on Colin Kaepernick to force him into poor decisions, which he’s done fairly often early in the season.

The 49ers started their season off with a 28-17 road win against the Cowboys, but it has been downhill from there. They have lost back-to-back games, including last week's disappointment when they could not beat the Cardinals, even without starting QB Carson Palmer. QB Colin Kaepernick was solid in the game, throwing for 245 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 54 yards. He did not turn the ball over like he did four times in the Week 2 loss to Chicago, but he was unable to get his team into the end zone in the second half. The 49ers should really do a better job of involving RB Frank Gore (139 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 1 TD) in their offense. After 29 combined carries in the first two weeks of the season, Gore had just six rushing attempts for 10 yards against the Cardinals. The 10-year veteran has rushed for more than 1,100 yards in the past three seasons and is one of the most reliable rushers in the NFL. The 49ers will, however, involve WR Michael Crabtree (19 rec, 187 yards, 2 TD) often against this porous Eagles’ secondary. Crabtree caught 10 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown against Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals, so he should have no problem getting it going against the Eagles. The 49ers defense has allowed only 85.7 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL), but it's not an easy task to stop LeSean McCoy, who led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards last year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints, 'Boys clash on SNF

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)

Line and Total: New Orleans -3, Total: 53.5

The surging Cowboys host the Saints on Sunday night in what should be an exciting, high-scoring affair.

New Orleans entertained the Vikings in its home opener and won 20-9 behind an efficient performance from its quarterback. QB Drew Brees (863 pass yards, 7.4 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT) was 27-of-35 for 293 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game and he should be able to replicate that success against a miserable Dallas defense that allows 6.2 yards per play (3rd-worst in NFL).

The Cowboys were able to erase a 21-0 deficit in St. Louis in Week 3 to win 34-31 for their second straight victory. QB Tony Romo (674 pass yards, 7.6 YPA, 4 TD, 4 INT) completed 18-of-23 passes (78%) for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the game and will likely attack the Saints’ suspect secondary often. These clubs are meeting for the fifth time in six seasons, with New Orleans winning each of the past three matchups, including a 49-17 blowout last year at home. Since 2004, the Saints are 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in Dallas, including a wild 34-31 win at AT&T Stadium in 2012 when the teams combined for 1,008 total yards.

Despite the Saints' dominance in this series (8-2 SU and ATS since 1994), they are 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the past two years, and Dallas is 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season in that time.

CB Morris Claiborne’s status is in question after leaving the Cowboys after being unhappy about his spot on the depth chart, and four other key defensive players are also questionable: LB Rolando McClain (groin), DE Anthony Spencer (knee), LB Justin Durant (groin) and DT Henry Melton (hamstring). The Saints defense could also be short-handed with LB David Hawthorne (ankle) and DB Marcus Ball (hamstring) both questionable.

The Saints are off to a disappointing start to the 2014 NFL season, as they dropped their first two games on the road against Atlanta and Cleveland, but picked up a much-needed home victory over the Vikings last Sunday. Many people expected the Saints to light up the scoreboard in that game, but they only scored 20 points in the win, with just seven points in the final three quarters.

QB Drew Brees should do much better against this Dallas defense, as .the Cowboys are allowing 250.3 yards per game through the air (21st in NFL) on 7.6 YPA (25th in league), and that was against Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker and Austin Davis. Brees is clearly the best quarterback they’ve faced in the opening weeks of this season and he has had plenty of success versus this opponent in six starts with 347 passing YPG, 16 TD and 4 INT. In last year's blowout, Brees completed 34-of-41 passes for 392 yards (9.6 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT.

One player Brees will target often is TE Jimmy Graham (24 rec, 254 yards, 2 TD). The Cowboys have really struggled to defend the tight end position, with big performances coming from Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker and the combination of Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks in the first three weeks of the year. Dallas has allowed opposing TEs to catch an NFL-high 27 passes this year, and Graham, whose 31 targets are more than any tight end in the league, should come through with a big game on Sunday.

The Saints defense has been solid against the run this season, allowing just 101.3 yards per game on the ground (10th in NFL). They will need to be sharp on Sunday, as they go up against RB DeMarco Murray and what has been a great run-blocking offensive line for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys were seemingly out of their Week 3 game when they fell behind by three touchdowns against the Rams, but they kept chipping away and eventually came away with a huge victory. QB Tony Romo started to look a lot more comfortable under center and him being healthy is the only chance the Cowboys have of making the postseason this year.

The Saints are allowing 278.3 passing yards per game (29th in NFL), so this could be Romo’s chance to really put up some gaudy numbers. In the past two meetings with New Orleans, Romo has thrown for 544 yards, 8.1 YPA, 5 TD and 0 INT, and he lit up the Saints at home two years ago with 416 passing yards and four touchdowns. WR Dez Bryant (20 rec, 247 yards, 2 TD) gained 224 of those yards and 2 TD, but was held to just one catch in last year's meeting as defensive coordinator Rob Ryan (formerly the Cowboys DC) made sure Bryant wouldn't beat them. But Bryant had six catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Rams, and the team should be able to find ways to get him open against a mediocre group of cover corners on the Saints.

The Cowboys have leaned heavily on the run this year though, as DeMarco Murray (NFL-best 385 rush yards; 5.1 YPC, 3 TD) has rushed for 100+ yards with a touchdown in all three games this season. Dallas will continue to emphasize its running game and take pressure off of Tony Romo, but Murray needs to protect the ball better, having lost three fumbles this year.

Dallas’ defense has allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game (T-15th in NFL) and 250.3 passing yards per game (21st in NFL). Many people expected them to be amongst the league’s worst defensive units, but they have performed better than expected, but injuries to the back seven could hamper their ability to defend the pass.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Can capping crappy NFL field conditions give you an edge?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Even before the dust had settled on the initial wave of Week 1 Sunday games played during the 2014 NFL season, the first complaint regarding substandard field conditions was lodged.

Houston Texans pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney - the first overall pick in last May’s draft - told safety and teammate D.J. Swearinger that he had stepped in a hole in the team’s home turf while playing the Washington Redskins, which resulted in a torn meniscus in Clowney’s knee that required surgery and a 4-6 week absence from the starting lineup.

Clowney may have been the first to fire a shot at subprime field conditions this season, but he certainly won’t be the last. Despite the lucrative amount of financial and technological resources at their disposal, some NFL franchises continue to struggle maintaining a playing surface that meets the standards of those who make their livings performing on it.

“This year, our field has been really bad,” Chicago Bears placekicker Robbie Gould said in a radio interview with WMVP-AM in 2013. “There have actually been some places on the field where some portions of it have actually sunk to a new low level, and the other spots are high. But it’s been really interesting to watch this year how bad our field has really been. I know we have talked about this every single year. Can we please get somebody in there that watches a news report?”

In addition to Soldier Field in Chicago, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Cleveland Browns Stadium and the Oakland Coliseum ranked as four of the league’s five worst playing surfaces, according to the NFLPA’s “NFL Players Playing Surfaces Opinion Survey” released in 2011.

A new venue may be headed for the Top 5 following the conclusion of the 2014 season, as Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, underwent not one, but two complete overhauls this past August due to serious issues with the playing surface.

Which brings us to the inevitable question: Is there a betting angle to be unearthed in games that feature poor field conditions?

“Extreme cases might come into play, but not too often,” Jay Kornegay, Director of Race & Sports operations at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook . “Real poor field conditions with rain, snow or wind will obviously affect totals.”

Bettors may have to look to specific matchups when testing the turf and its impact on the outcomes. A fast-paced offense used to playing indoors on FieldTurf, like the Indianapolis Colts or Atlanta Falcons, could have its timing thrown off when taking to a slick track on less than ideal field conditions.

The same could be said for a lightning quick defense that thrives on blitz packages and pressuring the passer, like the Arizona Cardinals or Houston Texans. Ball carriers have the advantage in sloppy conditions, knowing which way they’re going to go, leaving defenders struggling for traction on their tackles.

Tracking totals data for each month of each season played at the aforementioned stadiums since 2004, we attempted to determine if anything in particular stood out that could be added to our arsenal of information when making informed wagering decisions.

The results led us to one place: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

“The Steelers have been playing in the same stadium since 2001 and late in the year, at exactly the worst time, there are numerous high school playoff games played on the same field,” Las Vegas handicapper Chris Andrews. “There is some technology to address the situation, but the bottom line is that you can’t grow or replant grass very well in Pittsburgh in November.”

Here’s a month-by-month breakdown of how Over/Unders have played out at Heinz Field since the facility opened in 2001:

September: 12-8 (.600)
October: 13-11 (.541)
November: 14-11 (.560)
December: 13-20-1 (.393)

As you can deduce from the above data, Over bets have turned a profit at Heinz Field in every month since the facility opened, with the exception of December, when field conditions are at their absolute worst. None of the other aforementioned stadiums feature anywhere close to such a drastic turnaround with their monthly splits.

This season, the Steelers will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs on December 21 and Cincinnati Bengals on December 28.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 4 line moves
By ANDREW AVERY

Week 4 of the NFL schedule sees the first batch of bye weeks with two 3-0 teams - the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 ATS) and the Arizona Cardinals (2-1 ATS) enjoying a week off to prepare for Week 5.

Also of note, with 12 games on the slate Sunday and Monday, there is a whopping six home underdogs on the board. To date, there have been 11 home teams closing as underdogs and they've posted a record of 5-5-1 at the betting window this season.

We talk to Jay Rood, Director of race and sports for MGM properties in Las Vegas, about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where lines could end up come kickoff Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Open: +1, Move: +1.5

The Packers come in having taken six of the previous seven meetings with their NFC North rivals against the spread. But the Pack are coming off a week that saw them turn in a stinker, losing 19-7 at Detroit.

Rood opened this game with the Bears as 1-point home dogs and it's a matchup that has sharp bettors and public bettors divided.

"We opened Chicago +1 and we saw Sharp money at that number and moved to +1.5," Rood . "The public is piling on the Packers, though a lot of parlay tickets have the Bears. But the overall ticket count is favoring the Packers."

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

The Panthers started the season hot, winning and covering at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and versus the Detroit Lions in Week 2. That screeched to a halt with a 37-19 beatdown at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

According to Rood, public bettors are on the home side, with Sharps liking Carolina at the +3.5 number.

"Money's gone pretty much both ways with Sharp bettors taking the +3.5," Rood says. "We're not in a great spot here if it lands back on -3. The public money is all about the Ravens right now."

Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders (from London, England) - Open: +4, Move: +3.5

The NFL is back across the pond as the Dolphins and Raiders square off at Wembley Stadium Sunday.

Favorites have been the trend in these games having covered the spread in five of the last six and are 5-3 ATS overall since the league has played games there.

The Dolphins opened as 4-point "road" favorites for the matchup, but after a move to +3.5, it's a game that sharp bettors have avoided.

"We took a sharp play at +4 and it's the public who are siding with the Dolphins," said Rood. "Sharps seem to be staying away from this one and overall, there's been light play, but it could very well pick up Sunday."

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -5, Move: -4.5

It has not been such a banner start to the season for the 49ers, having dropped the previous two games after the wheels have fallen off for Colin Kaepernick and the offense in second halves this season. They've also failed for their backers as seven and 3-point favorites in the past two weeks.

The Eagles are a different story. They've come out of the gate 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS, only failing to cash in for bettors as 4-point home faves, just missing after a 37-34 victory over Washington.

"This one has steadily been coming down," Rood says. "There was great two-way action at -5, but then we started seeing heavy Eagles money. We saw a couple of of really big plays on Philadelphia and public is using Philly on parlays by about 4-to-1."

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys - Open: +3

The Sunday night primetime game has the Saints traveling to Dallas to take on the 2-1 (SU) Cowboys.

To the suprise of some, the Saints began the season with an 0-2 record after posting losses at Atlanta and at Cleveland. But they registered a win in the standings - and at the betting window - in Week 3 at home versus the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cowboys have won and covered in back-to-back weeks and will look to stay hot as field goal underdogs at home.

Rood explains that this one has seed solid two-way action, but it's the total that has the majority of bettors agreeing.

"We opened this -3, adjusted the vig and now we're dealing a 3-flat," explains Rood. "We're seeing really good two-way action on this one and it's looking like a bookie's dream. There is a slight lean to the Saints but everyone is on a high-scoring game here. A popular combo has been the Saints and the Over."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 4's best player prop picks
By SEAN MURPHY

You’ve got your side and totals bets in, but what about the long list of player props odds available at most books? Sean Murphy opens the doors to the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite picks to click.

Most passing yards

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

I like Aaron Rodgers in this matchup, simply because I believe the Packers will be playing from behind for much of the day, forcing Rodgers to air it out a little more often than the coaching staff would probably like.

Chicago is fresh off back-to-back road wins and while we'll see Jay Cutler take his shots downfield, I see this as Matt Forte's game. The Bears know they can pound away on a vulnerable Packers defense and ultimately wear them down. As much as Cutler likes to let it fly, he'll be kept under wraps, at least to a certain extent Sunday.

Take: Rodgers

Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)

I'll take a shot with the underdog in this matchup. After all, what do the Bucs have to lose at this point? There's little reason for them to hold anything back on offense and their strength lies in their passing game as long as their backfield remains undermanned.

It's not as if Mike Glennon is new to the offense. He saw plenty of playing time last season, and actually looked good for stretches. He knows that the starting job is essentially up for grabs at this point.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense exploded in Carolina last Sunday night. However, unlike last week when they faced a 2-0 Panthers squad, here they'll be going up against a desperate Tampa Bay team that got embarrassed last Thursday night.

Take: Glennon

Most rushing yards

LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

While Shady McCoy is looked at as one of the most electric players in the NFL, he hasn't exactly been at the forefront so far this season. That changes Sunday.

The 49ers defense isn't nearly as tough as it once was. With Nick Foles looking a little bit erratic in the early going, I'm confident the Eagles will give a heavy workload to McCoy Sunday afternoon, and I expect him to find success.

Frank Gore is still a workhorse, but he's not the 49ers’ only option out of the backfield. In this matchup, I see San Francisco taking more shots down the field rather than hammering away on the Eagles frontline. That's how they prevail on this day.

Take: McCoy

Most pass receptions

Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers) vs. Steve Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

It hasn't taken long for Joe Flacco to develop excellent chemistry with veteran receiver Steve Smith, effectively pushing Torrey Smith out of the picture as his go-to guy.

While the Ravens face a tough matchup in a fierce Panthers defense, Flacco won't shy away from throwing the football 30-40 times in this game. Baltimore's running game remains hit-or-miss and Smith will be out to show up his former club.

I'm high on Panthers rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin, but I'm also confident that his production will be erratic this season. The Ravens have a physical defense, and they'll key on Benjamin all afternoon long.

Take: Smith

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3.5, 41)

Bills’ rushing attack vs. Texans’ tackling troubles

The Bills could have the most dynamic run game in the NFL. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and a run-capable QB in E.J. Manual, who can break off big gains on the ground as well.

Sure, they only rank 11th overall with 131 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo was forced to abandon the run after falling behind early to San Diego in Week 3. The Bills rushed 33 times in each of their first two games but handed it off only 22 times versus the Chargers, still running for almost four yards per carry.

Houston was bowled over by the Giants’ makeshift backfield for 193 yards in Week 3’s 30-17 loss. The Texans defense allowed 131 rushing yards versus Washington and 101 yards on the ground to Oakland the weeks before and is coughing up 5.2 yards per attempt – second worst in the NFL.

Houston’s defense relies on turnovers but that can often lead to poor tackling – with players trying to strip the carrier – and guys getting out of position while trying to make a play on the ball. On top of what Buffalo can do on the ground, Spiller and Taylor can do damage on short passes as well, with the Bills averaging 7.55 yards after the catch – second most in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 44.5)

Jaguars’ pass rush vs. Chargers’ RB-less offense

The Chargers have had bad luck with their rushing corps early in the season, losing both Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead to injury. That leaves Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver in the Bolts backfield – two running backs not striking fear in the hearts of defenses, even if that defense belongs to the Jaguars.

San Diego has been able to dominate time of possession thanks to a balance between the run and pass – third in NFL at 34:00 – but may have no choice but to pick up the pace and pass the ball a lot Sunday. The Chargers have run the ball on 49.49 percent of their plays so far – fourth most in the league – but a drastic change in game plan could leave QB Philip Rivers vulnerable to one of the most underrated pass rushes out there.

Jacksonville sits tied for the league lead with 10 sacks heading into Week 4, including two sacks in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Jaguars defense has spent the most amount of time on the field, there’s no denying talents like DE Andre Branch and DT Sen'Derrick Marks are able to crumble an offensive line and put the squeeze on opposing passers. It just sucks for the Jags that they’ve come up against three very powerful offensive clubs in the Eagles, Redskins and Colts.

Jacksonville will ignore the Bolts' run game on most downs and refuse to bite on playaction, instead teeing off on the San Diego offensive line with everything they’ve got.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 50.5)

Eagles’ fantastic fourths vs. 49ers’ fourth quarter no-show

In essence, Chip Kelly’s offense isn’t about beating you in the first quarter, or even the first half. It’s about winning the fourth quarter, which is just what the Eagles have done through the first three weeks.

With its opponents sucking wind after chasing the up-tempo attack around all game, Philadelphia has outscored opponents 40-14 in the final frame. Quarterback Nick Foles has gotten off to some bumpy starts but always rights the ship in time for the victory, posting a 143.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter – tops in the NFL.

The Niners have faded in the fourth, watching wins against Chicago and Arizona slip away. San Francisco has yet to score in the fourth quarter – an insane stat - while allowing foes to hang 31 points on the board in the closing 15 minutes.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been downright dog crap in the fourth, with a QB rating of 48.4, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times while boasting just 159 total yards of offense – passing and rushing – in those 45 minutes.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Saints’ coaches vs. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Sean Payton and Rob Ryan may not agree on everything these days (see heated sideline exchange) but they can both agree on their disdain for the Dallas Cowboys – and owner Jerry Jones. While Payton and Jones remain on “good terms”, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator Ryan, who was unfairly fired from his job with the Cowboys two years ago.

The pair didn’t hold back when New Orleans blew away Jones’ Cowboys 49-17 as a 6-point favorite last November, improving Payton’s record to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against his former employer since leaving Big D for the Big Easy (wasn’t on sideline in 2012 due to suspension).

The Cowboys aren’t getting much help against the Saints – or any opponent for that matter – with rival jerseys littering the stands. Jones’ $1 billion AT&T Stadium has become a vacation destination for football fans, who gladly invade the Lone Star State to cheer on their squad. Some of the loudest cheers came from 49ers fans during Dallas’ Week 1 opener versus San Francisco.

Cowboys DT Henry Melton complained to the media this week about the lack of home-field advantage in Arlington, pleading with Dallas fans to “don’t just stay out in the parking lot, come on in.” Unless Melton is forking over $110.20 per head – the average ticket price for a non-premium seat – expect a sea of Black and Gold in Dallas Sunday night. Don't blame the fans. Blame Jerry. He's got to keep the lights on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football: Saints at Cowboys

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Buoyed by a sensational comeback at St. Louis last week, the Dallas Cowboys get a chance to avenge a humiliating defeat from a year ago when the New Orleans Saints come to town for a prime-time matchup Sunday night. The Cowboys erased a 21-point deficit to beat the Rams 34-31 but now must brace for a matchup against Drew Brees and the Saints, who blitzed Dallas 49-17 last season. New Orleans has won three straight versus the Cowboys but it is also riding a five-game road losing streak.

While the Saints have struggled a bit offensively the past two weeks, the Cowboys should be a welcome sight for Brees, who threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns while completing 19 consecutive passes in last season's debacle. Dallas allowed a franchise-record 625 total yards in the slaughter and has surrendered an average of 37.7 points during its three-game skid against New Orleans. The Cowboys had some off-field drama in the wake of Sunday's dramatic win, with cornerback Morris Claiborne bolting the team for one day upon learning he lost his starting job.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Saints -3. O/U: 53

LINE HISTORY: Both the spread of the Cowboys +3 and the total of 53 have yet to move since opening.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - CB Patrick Robinson (Ques-Hamstring), LB David Hawthorne (Ques-Ankle), C Jonathan Goodwin (Ques-Leg) Cowboys - DT Terrell McClain (Ques-Concussion), DE Anthony Spencer (Ques-Knee), LB Rolando McClain (Ques-Groin), DT Henry Melton (Ques-Hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.25) + Cowboys (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -1.25

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Saints off their first win this season and are road favorites for the third time this year where they are 0-6 ATS going back to last season. Dallas rallied from 21-0 deficit to beat St. Louis despite getting outgained by 108 yards. Cowboys 2-10 ATS at home vs. teams with losing road record." Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE SAINTS (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New Orleans squandered a 13-point lead to Atlanta in the season opener and was victimized by a last-second field goal at Cleveland in Week 2 before holding off Minnesota 20-9 last week. Still, the Saints bogged down on offense after scoring touchdowns on their first two possessions and saw a 13-point deficit whittled to four before Brees tossed a scoring pass to Marques Colston early in the fourth quarter. Tight end Jimmy Graham has a team-high 24 catches to go along with two touchdowns and rookie wideout Brandin Cooks has lived up to the hype with 18 receptions. Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will continue to split carries after leading rusher Mark Ingram suffered a foot injury in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Tony Romo threw for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week for Dallas, which didn't abandon the ground game despite the three-touchdown hole. That resulted in another big day for running back DeMarco Murray, who ran for 100 yards and a score on 24 carries to become the fifth player in league history to begin a season with 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in each of the first three games. Dez Bryant, who has 20 catches for 247 yards and a pair of scores, torched New Orleans in an overtime home loss in December 2012, catching a pair of touchdown passes and establishing a career high with 224 yards receiving. Dallas is 21st in total yards allowed (360.3) after ranking dead last in 2013 (415.3).

TRENDS:

*Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games following a S.U. win.
*Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
*Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
*Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 61.76 percent are backing the Saints -3 and 71.3 percent are taking the over 53.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Faves have been playing well in England

The Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and though the line opened as the Raiders +4, bettors should make note as the fave has covered in five of the last six games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the eighth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England. In fact, there are three games to be held on British soil this season with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions playing there on Oct. 26 and the Dallas Cowboys clashing with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov. 9.

There are a couple of trends through the first eight games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Dolphins versus Raiders game this weekend.

The favorite has covered in five of the past six matchups and is 5-3 overall in these games.

Last season, the Vikings shocked the Steelers 34-27 and covered as 3-point dogs and the 49ers destroyed the Jaguars 42-10 as 10-point favorites.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 4-4 in the eight games and the over is on a three-game streak since the Pats and Rams went over the 46-point total in 2012.

The total in this weekends matchup opened at 41.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend shows Packers a solid ATS play vs. Bears
Stephen Campbell

The Green Bay Packers have traditionally been a solid spread play when facing their NFC North rival Chicago Bears.

The Pack are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven matchups with Chicago. Aaron Rodgers and company invade Soldier Field Sunday afternoon for a date with the Bears.

Chicago is currently one-point faves with an O/U of 51.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ravens having issues covering at home
Stephen Campbell

The Baltimore Ravens have not been a good bet against the spread at M&T Bank Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Ravens backers will hope they can buck that trend when Baltimore hosts Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 NFL action Sunday.

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 41.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Under bettors profiting when Bucs-Steelers meet
Stephen Campbell

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a history of keeping the scores low. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total.

The Steelers will host the Bucs at Heinz Field Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh is presently -7.5 faves with an O/U of 45 for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Titans struggling mightily ATS
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in recent games, your bank account has taken a big hit.

The Titans are a paltry 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games. Jake Locker's team visits the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon.

The Colts are currently -7.5 favorites with a total of 45.5.

 

[Moneybanksbabii]

Waynes Pinnacle pick: Jets

Does anyone know his other top plays?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB roundup: A-Rod cleared by insurance company
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez was medically cleared by an insurance company to play next year.

Rodriguez, 39, is nearly done serving a 211-game suspension stemming from the Biogenesis scandal.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Rodriguez will not play winter ball as preparation for 2015. He played in just 44 games last year after having hip surgery.

"I spoke to Alex about 10 days ago, trying to get his thought process on the best way to come back," Cashman said.

It was the first time Cashman has commented on Rodriguez this season.

The Yankees still owe Rodriguez $61 million through the 2017 season. The team could recoup some of that through insurance if he is suspended again.


---The sellout crowd at Fenway Park on Saturday was there to witness the next-to-last game of Derek Jeter's distinguished career.

Jeter went 1-for-2 with an infield hit and was injured slightly, and the Boston Red Sox scored eight runs in the second inning en route to a 10-4 blowout of the Yankees.

Jeter appeared to be limping slightly after the infield hit. After the game, he simply said, "Yup," when asked if he will play on Sunday.

Yankees manager, Joe Girardi, said: "I'll text him in the morning and see what he wants to do. He probably felt it a little bit in his hamstring. He didn't say he was injured, but we'll see."

Girardi said the plan going in was for Jeter to get only two at-bats as the designated hitter.


---The Cincinnati Reds gave general manager Walt Jocketty a two-year contract extension.

Jocketty's contract was set to expire at the end of this season. His new deal runs through 2016.


---Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton, who hasn't played since suffering a mild concussion while robbing the Brewers' Ryan Braun of a home run on Wednesday night, was shut down for the final two games.


---San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey was out of the lineup for the second consecutive game after he underwent a precautionary MRI exam on his back that proved to be negative.

Posey, who is batting .310 with 21 home runs and 87 RBIs this season, had discomfort flare up in his back earlier in the week, but is expected to play in the NL wild-card game on Wednesday.


---Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Russell Martin, who left Friday's game after aggravating a left hamstring injury, was out of the lineup Saturday.


---Atlanta Braves left-hander Alex Wood (11-11, 2.78 ERA) has been scratched from his scheduled start Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park because of a mild left forearm strain.

According to manager Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves do not believe it's serious and are pulling Wood for precautionary reasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Even for football fans, MLB pennant chases are great to bet
By MARC MELTZER

Wow, the pro football season is off to some start. I’ve actually avoided most mainstream sports media over the past week because of off-the-field football news and it’s been great.

I like football but I looooooooove baseball. The over-coverage of non-game football events has left an awesome hole in my entertainment time. I’ve spent more time watching, reading about and listening to baseball in the past couple of weeks than I expected.

I’d like to think that I didn’t need a push to reminded me how great of a game baseball is but I might have and I’m OK with that. The baseball season is so long and there are so many changes in the game that it’s easy to get caught up in the now and forget the future. It’s been a year since the last playoff homestretch and it feels like it.

The dog days of summer can make a baseball fan glaze over. There's nothing else to offset the sport and remind you how great it is. The games all sort of blend together after a while. The play becomes a little more mechanical for the players and arm chair analysts like me. This is fine because the late-summer games are fun. However, like every other sport, the game gets real heading into the playoffs.

There’s an energy to the stretch run games that gets lost in the middle of the 162 game season. There’s a visible difference in the players when they’re just going through the motions and hoping for a win opposed to when they bust their butt as if winning is the only option.

The baseball fan in me perks up a little more than usual during the stretch run. I’m thinking more about experiencing great baseball games than just betting to make money. That ratio is flipped most of the year when I just want to place wagers and win.

The late season playoff run for the Washington Nationals has been as great to experience as the Milwaukee Brewers collapse. My 10/1 futures bet may play a small role here but there’s an intensity with the Nats that had been missing much of the year.

On the other side of the fence from the Nationals are the Brewers and Oakland A’s. The future was bright for these teams during the summer and now they look as if someone took away their favorite toy. It’s quite sad to watch but it’s good on the wallet.

Betting baseball is often about betting trends and the pennant chase provides some great betting options. The pennant race also immediately rules out some games to possibly wager. The later in the year we get the bigger the moneylines become. I see -200 favorites a couple times a day and maybe more now. I’ll never play a number that high so it eliminates a team to research unless I like the underdog.

We’re seeing lines with larger spreads than earlier in the season. Games are often spread 20 cents or (much) greater but there are still good bets to be found. They may not be value bets but they’re good opportunities.

If you’re paying close attention to baseball while sportsbook operators and the general public are fixated on football, you can find some great opportunities to wager on.

If you’re kind of done with baseball then just sit back and watch some of the pennant race games. Baseball is still a great sport to watch and between betting and playoff intensity there are more than enough reasons to keep it close.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three ways you should wager on MLB playoff clinchers

When it comes to clinching MLB teams, bettors beware.

Teams that secure playoff berths with games to spare have a tendency to tinker with their rosters heading into the postseason, and that has had a significant impact on the outcomes of their games over the past three years.

Here are three trends worth monitoring when it comes to betting on - or against - teams that already know they're headed to the playoffs:

In the Playoffs? Take it Easy

In each of the past three years, teams that have clinched a division title or wild-card berth have performed well below their previous winning pace for the remainder of the regular season. Last season, teams entered their stretch of largely meaningless games with a cumulative .590 winning percentage but won at just a .520 clip the rest of the way. The difference was less pronounced in both 2012 (.578 to .545) and 2013 (.598 to .569), but still significant to bettors.

"While they're still playing for home-field advantage, if teams have already clinched a spot, then the games generally no longer mean quite as much," says Covers Expert Ben Burns. "This can sometimes lead to regulars getting some extra rest and/or to a dropoff in overall intensity level."

Bettors should bear this in mind when considering how to approach the five teams that have already secured their division: Washington, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Angels.

The Orioles finish against three likely non-playoff teams in Boston, the Yankees and Toronto, and will almost assuredly give their regulars some rest. The same may apply to the Nationals, who end with seven straight home games against the Mets and Marlins. The Angels finish with six road games against Oakland and Seattle - both fighting for a playoff spot - and should face a steady stream of regulars in both series, making them likely underdogs throughout.

Value as an underdog

While division and wild-card clinchers lose virtually all value as a favorite the rest of the way, they're still hot plays as underdogs. Last year's top teams went 6-4 as underdogs down the stretch, while clinchers finished 11-11 as dogs in 2012 and 6-6 in 2011.

That doesn't necessarily make them a super-hot play moving forward, but consider that underdogs this season are converting at just under 43 percent this year - and haven't been higher than 43.14 percent over the past three years. With no clincher underdog winning percentage lower than 50 percent in any of the previous three seasons, they do represent a slightly better play compared to the norm.

Given the three teams presently locked into playoff spots, only the Angels appear to be obvious underdog candidates. The moneylines for the other two teams will depend heavily on whether they decide to rest starting pitchers or position players. Los Angeles probably won't be favored in any of its final six games, unless the Athletics and/or Mariners somehow fall out of playoff contention before then.

Shrinking totals

Totals bets are always a dicey proposition, but there's evidence - at least in the short-term - to suggest that clinchers play lower-scoring games down the stretch. The qualifying teams posted a 19-29-2 O/U mark in 2013 and a 20-34-1 O/U record in 2012.

Even an Over-heavy result in 2011 - teams went 27-21-3 - comes with an explanation. The Milwaukee Brewers (5-0 O/U down the stretch) were playing for National League playoff seeding and boasted a pair of sensational offensive weapons in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (who was still competing for the batting title.), while the Detroit Tigers (11-4-1 O/U down the stretch) led the majors with a .280 average and had incredible lineup depth.

So why the strong Under results?

"Likely just a product of watered down talent with September call-ups taking may spots in the order," says Sean Murphy. "Pitchers aren't given quite as much rest, as it's generally better for them to stay on schedule leading up to the postseason."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Braves are fade material with Harang pitching

Despite pitching reasonably well all season long, the Atlanta Braves are just 2-11 in Aaron Harang's previous 13 starts.

Harang will be on the mound when the Braves visit the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday evening.

The righty is 11-12 on the season, with a 3.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Oddsmakers currently have the Phillies as -122 home favorites for the game, with the Braves as +113 underdogs.