Sunday 9/25/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week*3 NFL

Cardinals (2-0) @ Bills (0-2)– Buffalo fired its OC after 37-31 loss LW; not sure how that helps; they had three extra days to rest after loss to Jets. Curious to see how the play calling changes, since players/owner met about play calling before OC was fired. Arizona covered its last eight road openers (6-2 SU); under is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers- they split first two home games, despite a +7 turnover margin. Redbirds are 8-2 as road favorites in Arians era; they’re 4-6 vs spread coming off a win. Arizona covered its last eight road openers. Bills won five of last six series ganes. Cardinals are 1-3 in Buffalo, with last visit in ’04, only win in 1971. Buffalo covered nine of its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Raiders (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)– LeBeau’s defense allowed only one TD on 18 drives in first two games; they rallied from down 15-3 in 4th quarter to even record at Detroit. Oakland has allowed 69 points in two games, giving up eight TDs on 21 drives. Raiders allowed 1,035 TY in two games, giving up six TDs, four FGs in 11 red zone drives. Tennessee won three of last four series games; five of last seven series games were decided by 5 or less points. Raiders are 2-5 in Tennessee; they beat Titans 24-21 (-1) LY, outgaining them 407-249, converting 8-15 on 3rd down. Oakland covered six of its last seven games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 9-15-1 in its last 25 games as a home favorite.

Browns (0-2) @ Dolphins (0-2)– Cleveland blew 20-0 first quarter lead LW, now start 3rd QB in three weeks (USC rookie Kessler). Dolphins drop way down in class here, after losing to Seattle/Patriots- over last decade, they’re 11-26 as home favorites. Miami won three of its last four home openers, are 4-7 vs spread in last 11, with last seven HOs going over total. Cleveland ran ball for 265 yards in first two games- they were outscored 39-3 in second half of the games. Browns won four of last six series games, splitting last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. Five of last six series totals were 33 or less. Miami was outscored 30-6 in first half of its games; all four of their TDs came in second half of games.

Ravens (2-0) @ Jaguars (0-2)– Baltimore rallied back from down 20-0 in Cleveland LW; they outscored first two opponents 26-0 in second half, are 10-8-1 vs spread in last 19 road games. Jacksonville is 11-21-1 vs spread in its last 33 home games; they allowed 65 points in losing first two games. Jax is 3-2 in last five series games, beating Ravens 22-20 (+5) LY, in a game where Baltimore outgained them 397-258 but was -3 in turnovers. Ravens are 2-6 in last eight visits here, losing last two 30-2/12-7. Since ’12, Baltimore is 12-14-3 in games with spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, Jaguars are 8-15. NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Lions (1-1) @ Packers (1-1)– Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener, won it late, then blew 15-3 lead LW and lost at home to Titans. Lions snapped 21-game skid at Lambeau LY, then lost rematch on last play of game, on long Hail Mary pass- two games were decided by total of six points. Green Bay gained 294-263 TY in splitting first two road games- over last 7 years, Pack is 33-19-1 as a home favorite (9-5 in last 14 NFC North games)- they won eight of last nine home openers (6-2 last 8 at as favorite in HOs); four of their last five HOs went over total. Detroit is 6-11 as an underdog under Caldwell, 6-7 on road; last 8 years, they’re 6-10 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bengals (1-1)– Cincy is 12-6-2 vs spread in last 20 games as home faves; they won last six regular season games the week after playing rival Steelers. First road start for Denver QB Siemian; last 6 years, Broncos are 8-10 as road underdogs. Denver won five of last six series games, going 3-2 in last five visits to Queen City- they beat Bengals 20-17 (-3.5) in OT LY. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 home openers, winning last four- they’re 6-3-1 as favorites in HOs. Denver won its last three road openers, is 6-3 in last nine. Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos’ last 14 road openers, 7-1 in Bengals’ last eight HOs. Bengals had only 103 yards on ground in first two games, 690 passing- they’re 7-27 on third down, need more balance.

Vikings (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)– Minnesota is 15-2 vs spread in its last 17 regular season games; Vikes are 10-3 as road dogs under Zimmer. Bradford was 22-31/254 in his first Minny start, nine days after his trade from Philly. Vikings forced six turnovers (+5) in their first two games- they won field position by 9-12 yards. Minnesota is 7-5 in series with four of last five decided by 10+ points; they’re 1-2 here, with last visit in ’11. Since 2013, Carolina is 13-4-2 as a home favorite; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Panthers are 16-30 on 3rd down this year; they’ve outrushed opponents 333-213. One of Bradford’s many season-ending injuries happened here, when he played for the Rams.

Redskins (0-2) @ Giants (2-0)– Redskins’ QB Cousins is in contract year, on hot seat after 0-2 start; he threw awful end zone INT in huge spot vs Dallas LW. Washington lost its last three road openers by 18-11-11 points; they’re 8-14 as road underdog last three years, 7-9 under Grudne. Supposedly Josh Norman will shadow Odell Beckham all over the field. Big Blue won five of last six series games, including last four here, by 4-14-11-11 points. Giants are 9-8 as home favorites last 3+ years; they scored only 13 points in four visits to red zone vs Redskins LY. Big Blue outgained Saints by 129 yards LW but didn’t score offensive TD- their only TD was on blocked FG. Redskins threw 92 passes, ran ball 29 times in their first two games- not good.

Rams (1-1) @ Buccaneers (1-1)– Rams haven’t scored TD on 22 drives; they’re 6-27 on 3rd down- they did get 2+ first downs on each of last five drives LW to help win field position (+7 yards) as they held on to upset Seattle. Tampa Bay allowed 64 points, 637 PY in splitting pair of road games to start year. Bucs lost last three home openers; they scored 14.5 ppg in last four. Under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 HOs. LA is 7-12-1 in last 20 games as a road underdog, 2-6 in game following its last eight upset wins. TB was 1-6 as home favorite last two years; they’re 21-36-1 vs spread at home the last seven years. Rams won last four series games, winning 28-13/19-17 in last two visits here- they beat Bucs 31-23 in St Louis LY.

49ers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)– Wilson’s ankle is an issue for Seahawks, who scored one TD on 22 drives in first two games- they lost field position by 7-10 yards. Seattle is 7-1 in last eight series games, including last four by combined 84-26; 49ers lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Seahawks ran ball for 431 yards in two wins over Niners LY. SF has six takeaways (+2) in first two games this year. Seattle is 15-6 in its last 21 games as an NFC West home favorite; 49ers are 1-7 as an NFC West road dog- they’re 3-9 in last 12 games as a road dog overall. Hawks are 25-14 in last 39 games as a home favorite overall. NFL-wide, favorites in divisional games are 3-8 this season, 3-4 at home.

Jets (1-1) @ Chiefs (1-1)– Three extra days of rest for Jets after Thursday win in Buffalo; Gang Green is 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games. Jets are 4-0-1 vs spread as underdogs in Bowles era (2-0 this year). Chiefs kicked four FGs in loss at Houston LW with no TDs, after rallying back from down 24-3 to win opener- they’ve been outscored 34-6 in first half of games. Last 8+ years, KC is 13-24 as a home favorite, 10-13 under Reid. Home team won last five series games; Jets lost 27-7/24-10 in last two visits here- their last win in Arrowhead was in 1998. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-8 vs spread this year. Under is 15-10 in games at Arrowhead since Reid has been Chiefs’ coach.

Chargers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)– Chargers outscored first two opponents 42-3 in first half of games. San Diego pounded Jags LW, after blowing 24-3 lead in Arrowhead in opener. Bolts are 17-6-1 as road underdogs under McCoy, 7-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. San Diego DC John Pagano visits his brother Chuck, Indy’s HC.Colts are 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite; they allowed 73 points in losing first two tilts, running for only 165 yards. Colts are 9-10-1 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last seven series games, winning last three over Colts by 6-22-10 points- they’ve won last three visits to Indiana, but last one was six years ago.

Steelers (2-0) @ Eagles (2-0)– Philly hasn’t turned ball over yet, won field position in first two games by 17-12 yards, as rookie QB Wentz plays like a vet. Eagle defense also KO’d #1 QB for both opponents. Since 2010, Iggles are 0-8 vs spread as a home underdog. Over last 8+ years, Steelers are 12-20-1 as road favorites- they’re 16-31 on 3rd down this year, have allowed only two TDs in winning first two games by 22-8 points. Teams split last six series games; Pitt lost last eight visits here, with last visit in ’08, last win at Franklin Field in 1965. Under is 10-6 in Steelers’ last sixteen road games Over last 8+ years, favorites are 26-14 vs spread in Eagles’ non-divisional home games.

Bears (0-2) @ Cowboys (1-1)– Not only is Chicago off to dismal 0-2 start, QB Cutler hurt his right (passing) thumb Monday, isn’t expected to play here, leaving Hoyer (15-11 in 26 career starts) as starting QB, with Matt Barkley likely backup. Road team won three of last four series games; Chicago won 27-20/34-18 in last two visits here. Only second half points Bears have scored came on punt return when issue had been decided. Chicago is 5-3-1 as a road dog under Fox; they’re 7-3 in last 10 as non-divisional road dog. Dallas split first two games, which were decided by total of 5 points; over last six years, Cowboys are 8-27 as a home favorite, 5-16 in non-divisional games.

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)– New Orleans is 15-5 in last 20 games of this rivalry; they beat Falcons 31-21/20-17 LY. Atlanta lost four of its last five visits here. Saints lost first couple games by total of 4 points- they didn’t allow offensive TD LW, after giving up 35 points to Oakland in home opener. NO is 4-10-1 in last 15 games as a home favorite. Falcons scored 59 points in splitting first two games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as a road dog- they have allowed eight TDs in first two games, four on plays of 23+ yards. Saints are 7-10-3 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 12-2 vs spread in Atlanta’s last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 25

DENVER at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Kubiak 6-1 as dog since LY, Broncs 6-2-1 vs. line away in 2015. Cincy 4-1-1 vs. line in the six games Dalton started and finished LY at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team trends.

OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
With loss to Vikes, Titans fall to 2-8 SU and vs. spread under Mularkey, and Tennessee now 8-28-3 last 39 on board. Raiders 7-2 vs. line away since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex no covers first two TY but he was 5-2 vs. line at home LY and Bills have covered three of last four as home dog. Cards 8-2 vs. spread last ten as reg.-season visitor.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags have now covered 3 of last 4 as home dog and also “over” 13-6 last 19 since late 2014. If JV chalk note 3-3 mark in rare role since 2014. If Ravens a dog note Harbaugh 4-1 vs. line in role away LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens, if dog, and "over," based on Jags “totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies on 2-9-1 spread skid since mid 2015. Also “under” six of last seven. Dolphins just 5-11 as home chalk since 2013.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Browns “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 5-1 SU and vs. line last six vs. Skins. Gruden very modest numbers save for last four games of 2015 reg season, otherwise 10-21 vs. line other 31 games since 2014.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on series trends.

DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions won at Lambeau for first time since ‘91 a year ago! Had failed to cover previous four at Pack. Detroit on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015. Pack only 4-4 as home chalk LY, also “under” 7-1 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Could have been a playoff game LY. Zimmer 10-1 last eleven as dog, Vikes 25-9 vs. spread on Zimmer’s watch since 2014. Also “under” 11-6 away for Zimmer. Cam 9-2 vs. line at home since LY, also “over” 8-2-1 last 11 at B of A.
Tech Edge: Slight to Vikings, based on extended Zimmer marks.

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawks 8-0-1 vs. line since 2012 against Niners, and have won SU last five meetings, though they're 0-2 vs. line in 2016. This series also “under” 6-1 last seven. Though Hawks have cooled a bit at home, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine at CenturyLink. Niners 2-9 last eleven as road dog.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on "totals" and series trends.

LOS ANGELES at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs were 1-6 as home chalk for Lovie the past two seasons. But Fisher just 2-7-1 vs. line last ten on road. Rams also “under” 13-4-1 last 18 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Bucs and "under," based on recent Ram road woes.

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel 10-3 last 12 reg.-season chalk. Steel also “under” 8-3 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.

N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jets 4-0-1 as dog since LY, also 6-3-2 spread uptick as visitor. Jets also “over” 13-6 since late 2014. Chiefs only 3-6 as home chalk since LY.
Tech Edge: Jets and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Philip Rivers 5-1 vs. line against Colts. Bolts 19-8-1 as road dog since 2012. Colts 2-5-1 last eight at Lucas Oil chalk.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.

CHICAGO at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jerry Jones 8-27 as home chalk in reg season since 2010, including bad loss to Bears last time Chicago visited in 2012.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.


Monday, Sept. 26

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs on 3-11 spread skid since early 2015. Though Falcs had covered three straight vs. Saints before losing both LY. Falcs were 4-1 as dog LY. Saints only 4-10-1 as Superdome chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on extended Saints Superdome chalk woes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFL Week 3 Streaks, Tips, Notes'

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers September 25, 1:00 EST

Lions pulled off a WK-10 win at Green Bay last year. What are the chances they'll have a repeat performance ?? Slim to none. Winning at Lambeau Filed has been an obstacle for Lions. In the last 24 trips into Green Bay the result has been 1 Win, 24 Losses (6-17-1 ATS).


Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers September 25, 4:05 EST

We do know Rams have won/cashed four straight in the series. But, this could be a good spot for Bucs. The Rams have a habit of faltering against the number in WK3 (1-8 ATS), have a money-burning 5-10-1 ATS record after playing Seahawks, 1-4 ATS skid after beating Seattle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Redskins' road woes'

Washington at N.Y. Giants September 25, 1:05 EST

There are bad spots and there are really bad spots like the one Washington Redskins find themselves in Sunday afternoon when they visit MetLife Stadium to take on G-Men.

It's always a challenge winning on the road in the NFL and an even bigger hurdle winning in a division rivals back yard. When it comes to Washington - 'Proof is in the Pudding'. The Redskins have had a bumpy road lately going 5-19 SU in their last 24 road games with a money-burning 8-16 record against the betting line. Adding to the problem, Redskins have faltered as visitor in this divisional rivalry going 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS last eight on Giants home field, 3-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS last fifteen trips into New York.

Not that you don't have ample reason to bet against the Redskins. But, last week's loss for Washington does not bode well for the team's chances as the team is 1-4 ATS against the betting line off loss the previous effort facing a division opponent off win including 0-3 ATS in a hostile setting. Expect Giants to continue their dominance over Redskins while improving the current 5-2 ATS mark hosting a division rival.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

I was silly enough to think maybe Cathryn Sophia had a shot of beating Songbird in the $1 million Cotillion (G1) on Saturday at Parx Racing, but it was no contest.

Songbird disposed of Carina Mia and Cathryn Sophia rather easily, the margin of victory 5 ¾ lengths as she ran her perfect record to 11 wins.

She returned a paltry $2.60 for the win and the $2 exacta paid just $7.80. She will take on older for the first time on Nov. 4 in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where she likely will run into three-time champion Beholder.

The Chad Brown trained Connect pulled off the upset in the $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby (G2), further putting the three-year-old division in complete chaos.

Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist faded to finish sixth and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator was a disappointing seventh.

Connect took the field gate to wire to win the Curlin in his stakes debut back in July and then was not a threat in a sixth place finish in the Travers (G1).

With Connect winning and Gun Runner (third in the Travers) running second, the Pennsylvania Derby sure does flatter the performance by Arrogate in the Travers, not as if it really needed any.

We see more three-year-olds in action this afternoon as we take a rare trip to Remington Park for the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby (G3). A field of 11 head to the gate as the feature on an outstanding 12 race card.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#4 Honor Way 5-2
#2 Starr Bear 1-1
#6 Bernadiva 6-1
#1 Fifteen Church / 1a Sunday Gravy 5-1

Analysis: Honor Way tracked the early pace and with a good five wide rally to finish in the runner up spot going six furlongs over the Spa main track. He stretches out to a mile here for the Pletcher barn that is 28% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens. By Caleb's Posse out of a Yes It's True mare, her first foal to race, she should be able to handle a one turn mile.

Starr Bear is back on dirt after checking in third last out at the Spa on turf in her second career start. She was a good third in her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track at Churchill Downs, missing the runner up spot by a neck. The Cox barn is 22% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. She has three sibs that are winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Flora Dora ($513,902).

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The John Hettinger (5:13 ET)
#5 Neck of the Moon 7-2
#2 Fourstar Crook 2-1
#7 The Tea Cups 4-1
#3 Flipcup 6-1

Analysis: Neck of the Moon is one of seven in here that race in the state bred Yaddo and she checked in fourth beaten 1 3.4 lengths by her streaking stablemate. The mare stalked the early pace and then was caught in traffic from the 5/16's to the eighth pole and was under a snug hold and finished up well late when clear. She has won just once in 11 trips over the Belmont Park turf but has landed in the money in nine of those outings. I liked her tough neck loss two back in the Perfect Sting over yielding footing. She gets five pounds from Fourstar Crook here.

Fourstar Crook won the Yaddo last out for her five consecutive win, her last being her first career stakes win. She has given every indication she will be able to handle her first trip at nine furlongs. Brown has this gal at the top of her game and she will be tough here but likely at a light price.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 2,5 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Remington Park:

RP Race 11 The Oklahoma Derby G3 (7:40 CT)
#5 Sticksstatelydude 15-1
#7 Fish Trappe Road 2-1
#1 Texas Chrome 9-5
#3 Ready Dancer 5-1

Analysis: Sticksstatelydude had a rough trip last out in the Smarty Jones (G3) at Philly. The colt was bumped around heading into the first turn and was near the back of the pack and did not offer much of a threat in the stretch in a fourth place finish. Two back at Belmont Park going a one turn mile this guy went gate to wire in a sharp effort earning a 103 Beyer. He showed some promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden in his second career start and then running fourth in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Rosario is in to ride which sure looks like a good sing that this guy is going to bounce back with a much better effort. The 15-1 morning line is generous, have a feeling his price is going to be shorter.

Fish Trappe Road came up empty in the stretch last out in the King's Bishop (G1) going seven furlongs at the Spa. Two back this guy earned a career top wining the Dwyer (G3) going a one turn mile. His lone start going two turns was in the LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds where he was not a threat in a seventh place finish, but he has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. The Calhoun barn is 22% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Texas Chrome tracked the early pace, battled in the stretch and prevailed to win the Super Derby (G3) last out at Louisiana Downs in a game effort. This colt has won 7 of his 12 career starts and got his first graded stakes win last out. he has earned back to back career tops, winning the Prelude two back. He is the logical one to beat but his price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,7,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #6 Son of Oahu 8-1
R4: #7 River Echo 8-1
R4: #8 Three Perfections 10-1
R6: #11 Accepting 12-1
R6: #8 Golden Treasury 12-1
R7: #7 Made in Detroit 8-1
R9: #6 Rosedale Arch 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 2:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$6900 - HCP NW 3 RACES OR 16,500 LIFE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 CHALK PLAYER 4/1
# 6 DA MAGICIAN 5/1
# 9 SOUTHWIND JADEN 6/1

All signs point to CHALK PLAYER for the selection. Not many knocks against this standardbred, let's give him a shot. This fine animal looks strong. Take a good look at the 81 avg speed rating. Has a huge shot in here, if he can repeat his back racing class. DA MAGICIAN - The panel of smart guys noted a very strong showing out of this solid standardbred last time. Looking for a repeat of that to score. SOUTHWIND JADEN - The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a restaurant menu. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$16000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER NW 5 EXT. PM RACES OR $51,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERRED MOHEGAN SUN POCONO DRIVER`S CHOICES: ANDY MCCARTHY #3 OVER #1 JIM MAROHN JR. #9 OVER #2
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 8 SOUTHWIND FLASH 5/2
# 7 GINNY WEASLEY 3/1
# 2 BUCKETLIST HANOVER 5/1

SOUTHWIND FLASH looks very nice to best this field. Has nice speed ratings and most likely has to be thought of for a bet today. With a 87 avg class ranking, this nice horse has one of the finest class advantages in the race. Could best this grouping, just look at the speed rating - 90 - from his most recent effort. GINNY WEASLEY - Recent markings for the driver - 37 percent win - make this filly a clear choice in the race. BUCKETLIST HANOVER - Could provide us a score based on competitive recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an avg of 85. Really liked this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 81 speed figure. Major contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 UNION CONQUEROR 5/1

# 5 VOW TO ROMANCE 3/1

# 6 GRETNA GRACIE 9/2

UNION CONQUEROR is the top bet in this race. When a handler brings any horse back this soon it is a positive sign. Banach has this filly racing well and is a competitive choice based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures garnered in route races lately. Her 62 average has this filly with among the best Equibase speed figs for this event. VOW TO ROMANCE - Boasts reliable speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Has run strongly when running a turf route race. GRETNA GRACIE - This mare has some longshot angles I like to wager on. Reliable average speed figures in turf route races make this racer a solid contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lethbridge

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4550 Class Rating: 61

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 FABULOUS NICOLE 10/1

# 7 STEEL VICTORY 5/1

# 1 SHESNOANGEL 12/1

I've got to go with FABULOUS NICOLE especially at a such a nice price. Has ran very well in dirt sprint races. STEEL VICTORY - Trainers don't bring racers back this quickly just for exercise. SHESNOANGEL - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#3 RISKY PERSUASION (ML=9/2)
#4 PRINCEVILLE (ML=5/2)
#5 SOUTH PHILLY MAGIC (ML=10/1)


RISKY PERSUASION - This jockey and conditioner's animals have been producing a profitable return on investment. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. This horse is utmost in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last speed fig, 50, is tops in this group. PRINCEVILLE - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier bunch than last time out at Parx Racing. SOUTH PHILLY MAGIC - Has discovered a great spot this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 IN THE SCRIPT (ML=7/2), #2 YOU R WONDERFUL (ML=5/1), #7 SARATOGA SHINER (ML=8/1),

IN THE SCRIPT - Didn't finish in the money on September 3rd at Parx Racing. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. YOU R WONDERFUL - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance events in order to bet on him. 5/1 is just not enough of a price to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back efforts. SARATOGA SHINER - On a downward spiraling series. Speed ratings keep dropping. Garnered a substandard speed figure last out in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race on Sep 10th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RISKY PERSUASION - When a mount takes such a big drop in the Equibase class figure department, I always take a look. I like what I see with this one and am making a wager on him.
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 RISKY PERSUASION is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

3 with [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Monmouth Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#6 TOMORROWS WILDCAT (ML=8/1)
#7 LULU HAD A BABY (ML=10/1)
#2 DISTINCTIVELYFOURU (ML=5/2)


TOMORROWS WILDCAT - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation. Looking at today's class figure, this pony is up against an easier group than in the last race at Finger Lakes. LULU HAD A BABY - Looking at today's class figure, this racer is meeting an easier field than last time out at Monmouth Park. DISTINCTIVELYFOURU - Spina brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your cash onto this jockey/conditioner combination. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a good effort on September 17th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ALEANDER (ML=3/2), #5 OLIVER RUSH (ML=4/1), #1A ALL UP (ML=6/1),

ALEANDER - This horse hasn't shown too much in the last pair of contests. Difficult to wager on any questionable contender in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months. OLIVER RUSH - Way too far back in the beginning of the last route event will probably make it tough to make an impression today in this sprint clash. I have some doubts when a questionable contender has bandages added in the last race. ALL UP - Difficult to wager on any racer in a short distance affair at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last 60 days. I cannot play this habitual non-winner. Gets the assignment finished occasionally. The fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 TOMORROWS WILDCAT is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 5:13 PM EASTERN POST

The John Hettinger Stakes

9.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $125,000.00 PURSE

#2 FOURSTAR CROOK
#5 NECK IF THE MOON
#10 SELENITE
#9 JULES N ROME

This stake race is named in honor of the late John Hettinger, a former New York Racing Association Inc. board member and horse advocate who was also a great supporter of breeding and racing in the state. Hettinger died in September 2008. Here in the 8th running of this stakes event, #2 FOURSTAR CROOK is the pace profile leader in this field racing at today's distance of 9.0 furlongs on the turf, and has won five straight, with four of those "Circle Trips" also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS!" Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chard Brown send her to the post for the "Sunday Feature" ... they've hit the board with 61% of their last 230 entries saddled as a team to date. #5 NECK OF THE MOON has hit the board in three of her last four outings, with two of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne: Sunday 9/25 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 11 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

**MANDATORY PAYOUTS**

Best Bet: BLISSFUL PANSY (13th)

Spot Play: MADD HOSS JACKSON (3rd)


Race 1

(1) BC'S DA WINNER filly trotter set a lifetime mark last start winning by open lengths; short price. (8) POWERFUL FATHER is 0 for the year but showed decent closing ability against better last start. (7) SPEEDY REDEZVOUS looked to be home free in the consolation last week before tiring badly.

Race 2

(2) MAKE IT WORK will look to make it two straight against a winless field. (3) DARN SKIPPIE just raced evenly last week but could be in a good position to pass some tired horses late.

Race 3

(9) MADD HOSS JACKSON well bred pacer faltered against better last start but was sharp prior. (10) SPIRITED ENCOUNTER went a very tough trip last out in the elimination. The 2-year-old needs to find a way into the race but the line three back would beat this field soundly. (1) LADY'S PARTY gets the best post in an inconsistent field.

Race 4

(5) EMMIA ROCKET four-year-old is in career form and seems to be getting better every start. (4) ALWAYS KENZER just missed last week to the top choice; threat. (3) STRONG PLAYIN KING scored a lifetime best, has been pretty consistent as of late and might offer the best price of the contenders.

Race 5

(5) FANTASTIC ROCK beat a way better field last week by open lengths. (3) JOSTING JACK should offer value underneath but needs a good setup. (4) OUTLAWPOCKETROCKET had some pace last week with nowhere to go; use underneath.

Race 6

(1) FOX VALLEY CHARM went a monster mile last start from the toughest post. If the pacer repeats that effort she can make it two straight. (4) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH six-year-old mare will be looking to get the jump on the field off the gate. (7) OK HEAVENLY had struggled against weaker early in the meet but has really come on strong late in the year.

Race 7

In a weak and inconsistent field, (9) WHATDOESTHEFOXSAY has more ability than what he shows on paper. The 3-year-old will offer a nice price and just needs a decent pace to close into for a chance to hit the ticket. (8) MYSECRETFISHNSPOT mare shows a solid effort three back against a better field. (7) AJ'S PRINCE has failed to win a race in sixty-nine career efforts; use underneath.

Race 8

(6) SHEZ A SWIFT mare is capable of putting a nice streak together when going good. (5) MAKE WAY burned cash last week but can sweep past with a good setup. (7) ODDS ON DOMINICA scored against weaker last start but needs more to hit the top spot.

Race 9

(1) ANNAS LUCKY STAR is looking to make it seven straight wins to kick off her career. (6) DAISY LOU DUKE filly can trot a decent mile when she minds her manners. (7) FOX VALLEY ELLA stayed flat last week and has room to improve; use underneath.

Race 10

(8) PRINCESS SAGE filly is on a roll and will look to stamp herself as the best with a third straight win. (9) MY KIND OF DANCE will look to turn the tables on the top choice but needs a good setup. (4) RAZZLEME DAZZLEME raced really well last start from a tough post.

Race 11

(1) GENTLE JANET gets the best post in a wide-open and evenly matched race. (2) SUMMER PARTY mare was better than this group at one time. The 7-year-old will offer a big price and could save ground before shaking loose late. (6) FRISKY BOB is 0 for the year but is capable of hitting the ticket at a price.

Race 12

(2) MONTANA REI has been improving nicely in the last three; threat. (5) GREEKONA has also been improving racing gamely in her last three. (1) HSLB MICHELLE filly gets the best post and will offer a better price this week.

Race 13

(1) BLISSFUL PANSY pacer has been on fire for new connections and will look to make it four straight. (7) NO MORE TERROR pacer has more ability than what it looks like on paper. If the 5-year-old minds his manners he can hit the ticket. (4) SAGEBRUSH SAM is inconsistent from week to week but is capable of a good effort.

Race 14

(3) PEACELOVEPACE has been facing much tougher. The pacer is tough when she makes an early lead. (1) DESIREE BELLABELLA has shown good closing ability against tougher fields. (6) JODI GIRL will offer better value this week but needs a smooth trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (2nd) Steamboat Bill, 4-1
(6th) Orecchiette, 7-2


Belterra Park (2nd) Boombosh, 3-1
(5th) Bella Amber, 7-2


Churchill Downs (3rd) Saturday Fun, 4-1
(8th) Christie's Ready, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Louies Baby Boy, 3-1
(5th) Miss Marianne, 8-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Chanel Number One, 9-2
(6th) Cho Time, 9-2


Los Alamitos (8th) Lucky J Lane, 3-1
(9th) Warren My Boy, 3-1


Monmouth Park (7th) Banty's Girl, 3-1
(8th) Metz, 5-1


Mountaineer (3rd) Divine Reason, 4-1
(7th) Awarding, 5-1


Parx (3rd) Honor Commitment, 3-1
(6th) Park Avenue Appeal, 7-2


Pleasanton (5th) Feisty's Cause, 5-1
(10th) Red Rose Lady, 7-2


Presque Isle Downs (4th) Cowgirls Pray, 6-1
(8th) Lucky Leroy Brown, 5-1


Remington Park (3rd) Wheatfield, 9-2
(7th) Cool Arrow, 4-1


Woodbine (2nd) World in Silence, 3-1
(7th) Tonedaddy, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Broncos (2-0) at Bengals (1-1)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The Denver Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champions and have started the 2016 NFL season with a 2-0 mark.

The Cincinnati Bengals, who were a media darling this offseason to finally break through their playoff slump and compete for a Super Bowl, are 1-1. These two AFC titans face off at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday (1 p.m. ET) with early-season playoff implications already in play.

The big headline for this game will be how Broncos' first-year quarterback Trevor Siemian handles his initial start on the road.

With wins at home against the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts, a real challenge lies ahead in Ohio for the young quarterback. How Siemian and a shuffled offensive line handle the crowd noise and defense of Cincinnati will be interesting to watch.

While the second-year quarterback hasn't put up impressive statistics, he also hasn't been the worst quarterback to start for a Super Bowl champion either. That could send the team in a different direction if he struggles on the road in this contest.

The Bengals finally get a home game after losing a hard-fought battle in Pittsburgh, 24-16, this past Sunday. They squeaked out a major AFC win in Week 1, on the road with a 23-22 victory over the New York Jets.

Even with a split record, Cincinnati is looking up at the Steelers (2-0) and the Baltimore Ravens (2-0) in the AFC North. Some home cooking and friendly confines could be just the remedy the Bengals need to get back on that winning track.

"We knew that the beginning of the schedule was going to be a big challenge. We came into this game (Pittsburgh) with an opportunity to steal one on the road. We slugged it out the whole game. We'll continue to grow each week," left tackle Andrew Whitworth said about the tough schedule the Bengals face in the first three weeks.

This contest pits one of the best defenses in the NFL against one of the top offenses.

Denver is allowing its opponents an average of 293 yards per game. The Broncos tied for the NFL lead with Seattle for the fewest yards per play at 4.4. Denver boasts outside linebacker and Week 2 AFC Defensive Player of the Week Von Miller, who leads the NFL in sacks with four.

"That's Von Miller, the most unblockable dude in the game. 99 on Madden, 99 swim move, 99 spin move, 99 across the board for that kid," running back C.J. Anderson said of his defensive teammate.

Miller's strip-sack of quarterback Andrew Luck of the Colts sealed the game for the Broncos.

When Cincinnati has the football, there are two key matchups for which to watch. First, Miller against offensive tackles Whitworth and Cedric Ogbuehi. The Bengals' offensive line has given up eight sacks this season, which is the most in the league.

Ogbuehi is in his first season as a starter and while he has size and foot quickness, he struggled in both the pass and run blocking phases versus the Jets and Steelers.

If the Bengals need to use a tight end or running back to help block Miller in the passing game, this should free up a linebacker or another defensive lineman to rush quarterback Andy Dalton. However, the loss of outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware with a broken arm favors Cincinnati's offensive line.

The Bengals' offense, especially the passing attack, is hitting on all cylinders early in the 2016 campaign. Cincinnati is averaging 396.5 yards a game with an average play of 6.1 yards.

Dalton leads the league with 732 passing yards. The Bengals' offense has relied on the deep ball in leading the NFL with 13 passes of 20-plus yards.

The other matchup to watch is Broncos cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris against wide receiver A.J. Green. Green tore up the Jets' secondary for 180 yards but was held in check by an average secondary in Pittsburgh.

Denver's back half is as good as there is in the NFL. Both Talib and Harris have an interception on the season and the former returned his grab for a pick-six. Green has the size advantage over Harris, so look for Green to line up over the smaller player as much as possible in the game. The Broncos did give up a touchdown to Green in their game last season, but held the five-time Pro Bowler to 58 receiving yards.

On the flip side, the Broncos rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL and Anderson ranks sixth in the NFL with 83 yards rushing a game. The Bengals' run defense is statistically the worst in the NFL as defensive coordinator Paul Guenther's unit has allowed 138 yards rushing per game at 4.2 yards an attempt.

But give this defense some credit: It has not allowed a rushing touchdown in 2016.

The Broncos' offensive line will be without starting right tackle Donald Stephenson due to a calf injury. His departure from the lineup means either Ty Sambrailo or Michael Schofield will man the right tackle position.

The Bengals' defensive line, especially left defensive end Carlos Dunlap, needs to apply pressure from the edge on the young signal-caller for the Broncos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinals (1-1) at Bills (0-2)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

They may be 0-2 and might have changed offensive coordinators, but when it comes to playing against a Rex Ryan-coached defense as the Arizona Cardinals will this Sunday when they meet the Buffalo Bills, Carson Palmer knows the only thing you can expect is the unexpected.

"Very well-coached defenses," the Cardinals quarterback said. "A lot of different looks, a lot of different coverages. But you've got to be ready for Cover Zero all over the field. On first down, second down, backed up, red zone, midfield, fringe, all that."

What's more concerning to the 1-1 Cardinals, Palmer said, is that the Bills are a desperate team.

"Their backs are against the wall and we are prepared and we've got to be prepared for as much as possible," he said. "You can't ever be prepared for everything, especially with Coach Ryan, but you've got to go into these games expecting anything. When a team is in the situation they're in, where they're trying to get their first win and they've got a little turmoil going on with coaches and stuff like that, their back are against the wall and we've got to be prepared for that."

The Bills fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman after their loss last week to the Jets and promoted Anthony Lynn to take his spot. The game plan figures to be simplified a tad this week, but quarterback Tyrod Taylor said Buffalo will pick up the tempo when they have the ball.

"That's definitely something we've been putting a focus on throughout the week, just trying to get in and out and put pressure on the defense," Taylor said. "We've got a lot of talented guys on the offense and we want to get them the ball, but I think the main thing is the tempo."

Taylor said he's curious to see what kind of looks the Cardinals' defense will give them, adding that whatever looks they see, it isn't going to be easy.

"They've got playmakers across the board," he said. "Up front, their secondary, at linebacker. It's a very fast defense and they play sound football. We'll definitely have to bring our A-game to make plays against those guys."

Buffalo's running game, which ranked first in the league a year ago, has struggled to gain yards. It ranks 24th overall after two games. The offense ranks 31st in percentage of three-and-out series and is 29th in third-down conversion rate.

"Obviously, we are extremely disappointed where we're at, 0-2," Ryan said. "We didn't expect to be in this situation right now. ... It's not like we're hanging our heads. We just know we have to get better and we have to get better in a hurry.

"It's two games. We've been beat by six points in both games. I get it. It's not where you want it to be, but there's a lot of football left to be played, win, lose or draw."

Despite blowing out the Buccaneers 40-7 last week, Cardinals coach Bruce Arians wasn't very happy with his team. He publicly criticized several of his players and said, among other things, "we can be a (heck) of a lot better."

One thing Arians demands perfection out of is his offense when it goes into its no-huddle packages, which the Cardinals are expected to use a lot early and often at New Era Field. It hasn't been good the first two weeks against the Patriots or the Buccaneers, but especially last week against Tampa.

"Fewer lack of communications," Arians said. "We had, in the first five plays, three guys that didn't handle it very well. Whereas when we were on the road in Houston (during the preseason), we handed it beautifully. Again, we've got some young guys that get way too hyped up for games. They have to settle down and start the games better and we have to communicate better."

As for the Bills, Ryan insists it's far too early to panic. He said he isn't concerned about his job security and added the decision to let go of Roman was made with the best of intentions and that the Bills will be better for it moving forward.

"And that's not a slight on Greg Roman," Ryan said. "Greg Roman's a tremendous coach. But for us at this time, that was what we felt would help our football team."

What also will help, Ryan said, is hoping Palmer has an "off day."

"We're hoping for an off day. That's pretty much it," Ryan said. "It's not a very comforting thought going into a game thinking that, 'Hey, this kid, we need him to have an off day, but that's kind of where he is. He's such a talent, always been a talent, and especially with his core of receivers and things and this offensive line. This is a heck of a task in front of us."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raiders (1-1) at Titans (1-1)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

To the Tennessee Titans, it mattered little that they spent the first three quarters of last week's game in Detroit flailing and failing like the team that's gone 5-27 the previous two years.

What mattered most at the end of a decidedly inelegant game was this: In the fourth quarter, Tennessee put together two touchdown drives, came up with the big stop in the last minute and left Ford Field with a 16-15 win.

"Being around here, we haven't won many games like that," cornerback Jason McCourty said. "Hopefully, that will turn stuff around. I think the one thing this year is that we honestly believed and we thought throughout that whole game that we'd be able to pull it out. Then to do it, now we know we can."

Tennessee (1-1) will try for its first back-to-back wins since 2013 Sunday when it hosts the Oakland Raiders at Nissan Stadium. Coincidentally, that was also the last year the Titans sniffed any kind of playoff contention, although they turned a 3-1 start into a 7-9 finish that resulted in the firing of coach Mike Munchak.

Oakland (1-1) followed up a dramatic 35-34 win in Week 1 at New Orleans with a come-from-ahead 35-28 loss last week to Atlanta. The Raiders' defense has allowed more than 1,000 yards in the two games, leading to some serious questions.

In fact, coach Jack Del Rio took over the defense in the fourth quarter from coordinator Ken Norton, Jr., then said Monday that changes were coming. But Del Rio said he isn't planning to run the defense this week.

"I think for us, it's about us," he said. "It's a collective effort. We all share in it so I'm not going to throw any one person under the bus. It's not any one person that's at fault here. Collectively, as a group, we have to pick it up."

Tennessee would seem to be an ideal foe to pick it up against. While the Titans have shown flashes of being the team coach Mike Mularkey envisioned in preseason, they've only managed 16 points in each of their first two games.

In quarterback Marcus Mariota, running back DeMarco Murray, tight end Delanie Walker and rookie wide receiver Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee has more pieces offensively than it's had in a few years. But critical mistakes had tripped it up until the fourth quarter in Detroit.

There, Mariota threw two touchdown passes and completed all nine of his attempts for 74 yards on the game-winning drive, giving the Titans only their sixth win since the 2014 season's beginning.

"We have to build off this win and show up at our home game," Walker said. "We have to protect our house."

That's been much easier said than done for Tennessee, which is 2-15 in its last 17 games at home, dating back to the 2014 home opener. Its two wins in that span have been one-possession verdicts against equally bad Jacksonville.

Oakland is one of many teams to leave Nashville with a win in the last two-plus years, rallying late to take a 24-21 decision on Nov. 30, 2015, as Derek Carr found Seth Roberts for a late touchdown pass.

Carr already boasts 618 yards and four touchdown passes in two games, while wide receiver Amari Cooper has 208 yards. The presence of Michael Crabtree and Roberts keeps teams from constantly doubling Cooper, and Latavius Murray offers a ground threat that prevents opponents from concentrating solely on the passing game.

"We know the challenge they pose and how good they are offensively," McCourty said. "They are going to come in here hungry after they lost a tough one to Atlanta. So it's going to be a tough challenge for us."

The challenge will be equally difficult for the Raiders if they don't start generating some 3-and-outs, as well as big plays, on defense. The Titans are certain to emphasize Walker in the game plan after Falcon tight ends combined for 180 yards on 10 receptions last week.

Del Rio might insert rookies Karl Joseph and Cory James at safety and inside linebacker, respectively, and could also bench cornerback Sean Smith. Even linebacker Khalil Mack, the leader of the defense, has been neutralized with only two pressures and no sacks the first two weeks.

Like his teammates, Mack is chagrined at the defense's play.

"A thousand yards," he said. "Being the leader of this defense, that hurts."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ravens (2-0) at Jaguars (0-2)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Jacksonville Jaguars coach Gus Bradley remains adamant that there is no need to overreact to a Week 2 loss to San Diego.

No matter how ugly it was.

Now the Baltimore Ravens are headed to Jacksonville with a chance to continue their best start to a season in seven years while dealing Bradley's enduring confidence another blow following one of the most disheartening defeats of his tenure.

"It's one game. One game that we did not play well," Bradley said. "You take a look back and you sit back and you re-evaluate things. I think we observed what happened and we interpreted what happened. Now we have to apply it. That's where we're at now."

The Jaguars have been unable to turn evaluations into wins under Bradley, who is now 12-38 in his three-plus seasons coaching the team. Last week's 38-14 throttling by the San Diego Chargers was among the team's most brutal performances.

Through three quarters, quarterback Blake Bortles had no touchdowns and three turnovers while he struggled to get his top play-makers involved. Meanwhile, the defense was getting gashed for five touchdowns as the Chargers led 35-0.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers again picked apart the Jaguars, finishing the game 17 of 24 for 220 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

"He's elite. We all know that," Jaguars cornerback Dwayne Gratz said. "He went out there and played a great game. Hats off to him."

While the Jaguars keep finding ways to lose, the Ravens have proved they know how to win.

Baltimore came out on top of a defensive struggle against Buffalo in Week 1 and overcame a 20-0 first-quarter deficit to beat Cleveland 25-20 on Sunday.

The victory gave the Ravens their first 2-0 start since the 2009 season.

"The guys just kept fighting and clawed their way back in, slowly but surely," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "They never gave up on one another, and (resilience) is probably what you attribute that to."

A rejuvenated Mike Wallace has played an important role in infusing energy into the team's receiving group. Playing in his first season with the Ravens, Wallace already has three touchdowns as part of his seven catches for 132 yards.

Tight end Dennis Pitta has also been effective with a team-leading 12 catches for 141 yards.

Baltimore's offense could be primed for a big week against Jacksonville, which has allowed 32.5 points per game (tied for 28th in the league), but veteran receiver Steve Smith said he doesn't pay much attention to what an opponent did the previous week.

No matter how bad it was.

"Sometimes numbers can lie," Smith said. "Unless you watch the game and understand how and why, then you can look at a box score and say, 'Oh, that team is not very good.' You just can't do that."

Smith contributed eight catches for 83 yards after returning from an Achilles tendon injury that he said "pretty much sucked" to recover from.

"It was horrible," he said.

That's also an accurate description for how the Jaguars played against San Diego's receiving threat.

Chargers receiver Travis Benjamin burned Jacksonville for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week while receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Antonio Gates both added scores of their own.

Coverage could be an issue again for the Jaguars as cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (knee/triceps) missed practice Wednesday.

The Jaguars were also with left tackle Kelvin Beachum (concussion), defensive end Jared Odrick (triceps) and receiver Allen Robinson (illness). Running back Chris Ivory (medical issue) returned to practice for the first time since Sept. 9.

The Ravens were without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (foot) for practice Wednesday while linebacker Elvis Dumervil (foot) was limited.

These teams met last November in Baltimore and played one of the wildest games of the season.

The Ravens appeared to win at the end of regulation, but Dumervil was flagged for pulling on the facemask of Bortles to give the Jaguars one untimed down.

Gifted with another chance, kicker Jason Myers connected on a 53-yard field goal to give Jacksonville a 22-20 victory. Both teams finished the season 5-11.

"That's definitely one of the craziest finishes to a game that I've ever been a part of," Myers said. "Thankfully, it worked out in our favor."

The NFL later announced Baltimore should have won, saying a false start penalty on the Jaguars was missed on the play that ended with Dumervil's penalty. A 10-second run-off would have been issued to end the game.

That didn't make the result any easier to swallow for the Ravens.

"I don't really ever forget that game," Harbaugh said. "It doesn't have to be spurred. That's always been kind of on my mind. It was a great football game, a tough loss for us. They deserve credit. They found a way to win. That was a real tough loss for us."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Browns (0-2) at Dolphins (0-2)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

For the fifth consecutive regular-season game, the Cleveland Browns turn to a new starting quarterback on Sunday (1 p.m. ET) when they visit the Miami Dolphins in a Week 3 matchup of 0-2 teams.
Rookie third-round pick Cody Kessler climbed the depth chart from third string to No. 1 in the span of two games. Robert Griffin III opened the season as the starter, and was replaced Week 2 by Josh McCown due to injury. Both are dealing with shoulder injuries.

Uncertainty pervades each locker room considering the Dolphins have very little gauge of Kessler's NFL readiness.

"I think the hardest thing for our guys is going to be just kind of the unknown," Miami head coach Adam Gase said. "You can always try to do as much research as you possibly can as far as what looks like could be his strengths and weaknesses in the NFL from the limited exposure you have on him.

"You try to lean on possibly some of the scouting evaluation that went on coming out (of college), as much as you can; but obviously it's such a different game at this level."

The Browns started Johnny Manziel, who is out of football, and Austin Davis in the final two regular-season games of 2015.

Kessler was drafted ahead of Dallas Cowboys rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, a fourth-rounder who is 1-1 and has not thrown an interception in 75 attempts.

With a less-heralded collection of skill-position talent and a remade offensive line, Kessler still has the full confidence of Browns head coach Hue Jackson. When Jackson drafted Kessler earlier than pundits rated the USC quarterback, the coach said "trust me on this one."

He stands by the declaration even headed to South Beach to face defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, defensive end Mario Williams and pass rusher Cameron Wake.

"You're going to trust me this weekend," Jackson said. "Here we go. Here we go. Trust me. Here we come. Here we go. We'll see what that statement was all about."

Cleveland has lost 10 of its last 11 road games.

Kessler is disappointed for McCown, who is unsure when he'll play again, but the 23-year-old is eager to validate Jackson's faith in him. He said he doesn't have to change his routine because he has been preparing to start since rookie minicamp in May.

"I think it's been awesome, because Hue's trusted me through this whole process," Kessler said. "He knows since I got here from Day One, that I really am excited. When you get a coach like that, that really loves the game and also really loves his players and really wants you to succeed, it makes you want to play better."

The Dolphins have a pair of tight losses to perennial contenders - 12-10 at Seattle and 31-24 at New England. Gase, a first-year head coach who turned down the opportunity to interview in Cleveland as offensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos in 2013, gets his home debut in the Dolphins' first game at renovated Hard Rock Stadium. The home digs of the Dolphins underwent a $500 million renovation in the offseason in hopes of being considered as a Super Bowl venue.

Whether the Dolphins can build a team capable of playing in that game is not clear after two weeks.

The Dolphins are operating without center Mike Pouncey (hip) and have 36 rushing attempts this season. Miami has only six first-half points, which has dictated a lean toward throwing the ball. Gase sees promising signs despite the NFL's 27th-ranked running game, which will likely be without running back Arian Foster (groin).

"We know what we're doing as far as what we need to emphasize," Gase said. "It's like I told our media here, if I feel like there are problems with the run game, I won't be afraid to say it."

The Dolphins are also 27th in the NFL in points scored. Gase expects things to change quickly.

He credited quarterback Ryan Tannehill with consistent play and called on the supporting cast, including running backs Jay Ayaji and rookie Kenyan Drake, to step up in support.

"I don't know how much more he can really step up considering that he's doing everything right now that we need him to do," Gase said of Tannehill. "It's just that we need every guy to pull their weight."

Cleveland can test the Dolphins on the ground to help Kessler settle in, especially considering Miami allowed 136.5 rushing yards per game over the first two weeks of the season. Fellow rookie Corey Coleman had two touchdowns last week and was developing into a featured component of the Cleveland offense prior to breaking his hand in practice Wednesday.

Kessler worked overtime to get ready for the Dolphins. He was at the team facility for 18 hours on Monday and reported early Tuesday, typically a rest and treatment day. He said he watched the first two games of the season six or seven times apiece.

"I want to give myself the best chance to take advantage of this opportunity this weekend," Kessler said. "It is definitely a long process, definitely a long week, but for me, I'm just staying focused on what I can control. That is how I prepare and how I perform."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Redskins (0-2) at Giants (2-0)

Date: September 25, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

The feud between New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman threatens to overwhelm what is a critical early-season game in the NFC East.

A division that the Redskins won with just a 9-7 record last season appears there for the taking for the Giants. New York is off to a 2-0 start and already owns a win over the Cowboys in Dallas. A Giants victory over Washington on Sunday (1 p.m. EDT) at MetLife Stadium would add a second division win and put the Redskins (0-2) in an awful position three weeks into the season.

"We look at it, 'Hey, it's the next game,'" Giants quarterback Eli Manning said. "We're worried about our season and what we've got to do, and it's a chance for us to go 3-0, and that's all we are concerned with."

Neither team wants to let Beckham-Norman drama overshadow the contest, though it figures to occur anyway.

By the end of the Dec. 20, 2015, game in New York against the Carolina Panthers, Norman's former team, Beckham had been whistled for three personal-foul penalties, including one after he got a 10-yard running start and smashed into Norman's helmet.

For his part, Norman was fined more than $26,000 and was called for two personal fouls. The Giants also maintained that Carolina players waved a bat at them before the game and hurled homosexual slurs at Beckham. Norman later denied that happened, but there was enough ugliness that day to go around.

"I am looking forward to playing the New York Giants, man," Norman said. "A lot has been said from this week all the way up since last time we played each other, so I'm sure they're going to be ready just as much as we are. Shoot, seems Sunday can't get here fast enough."

The Redskins are bordering on desperate. They were blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the opener at home and were left seething after a close loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Washington's schedule only gets tougher in November and December, so the Redskins can't afford a slow start. Winning in New York is never an easy task, though. The Redskins have lost four in a row and seven of eight on the road against the Giants.

The injury list is growing quickly for Washington, too. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (knee/ankle) did not participate in practice Wednesday. Left tackle Trent Williams (right knee), defensive end Chris Baker (rib/elbow/knee/toe) and rookie wide receiver Josh Doctson (left Achilles tendon) were all limited.

New York is worried about starting right guard Marshall Newhouse (calf) -- who plays a position at which the team possesses limited depth -- and running back Rashad Jennings (thumb). The running game was ineffective in the Giants' ugly 16-13 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Giants did not score an offensive touchdown.

Another concern for New York? Three lost fumbles. The Giants can't afford to give Washington's offense that many chances.

"Putting the ball on the ground three times is not something we want make a trend or something that we want to continue doing," Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz said. "So we want to make sure that we pay attention to detail, pay attention to the little things. Ball security is definitely one of those little things that we need to clean up a little bit."

The Giants' defense has been solid against the run this season, but it is unclear how much Washington will employ running back Matt Jones and company this weekend.

The Redskins profess to want to find a balance between the running and passing game, but they have thrown the ball 89 times and run it just 29 through two games. Some of that is because Washington fell behind early in the second half to the Steelers, but some of it is just not being able to move the ball on the ground and having so many weapons at wide receiver and tight end.

"We're not happy with the run-pass balance," Washington coach Jay Gruden said. "Based on the numbers, we're obviously not a run-first team. I'd be standing up here looking like a fool if I said we're a 'pound the rock' type team right now. First two games, the proof is in the pudding, the numbers."