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NFL Week 3 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

It’s hard to believe we’re already heading into Week 3 of the NFL season – a point in which books and bettors get a tighter grasp on the league’s 32 teams. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 3:

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4.5, 46.5)

I watched the N.Y. Giants/New Orleans game from kickoff to final gun and there were so many reasons why G-Men backers should have been beaming when the game was over. The real facts of the game were that the Giants turned the ball over three times in the first half and settled for a field goal instead of the touchdown in the final moments.

New York did display some awesome defense which bottled up an explosive Saints team. Drew Brees did have a few drops by his receivers but no doubt the Giants were hitting hard, were quicker to the ball, and were much more explosive getting to their tackles on the defensive end.

Washington QB Kirk Cousins is having a little regression in his output, just as we predicted back in Week 1. Just one touchdown thrown compared to three picks has spelled doom so far.

The opening line came out at New York -4 and has slowly made its way to -4.5 at many places already. This seems a bit low and I agree with the early path this is taking. As a result, we encourage Giants fans to grab this as early as you can.

I thought this game would have opened at -6. Reason being: the Redskins have been awful defensively so far and, given the right situation, a stagnate N.Y. offense should be able to out run Washington’s porous defensive schemes. Momentum has to be with New York here as it could really put some distance between them and Washington in the standings after just three weeks.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 43.5)

The Jets will be heading to Kansas City this weekend and, by all accounts, New York has played very well under quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has performed above and beyond so far this season.

This line opened at Kansas City -3.5 which really was a puzzling opener and bettors scooped up the hook immediately but we don’t think this is the end of the Jets money just yet. I would have thought this game would have opened closer to -2 and possibly gone down from there.

Standing at -3, bettors have the advantage of knowing sportsbooks will stay there awhile before jumping to the -2.5 later this week. You don’t have to rush to get this one but the tendency of this line will be hedging down before it will go up, so be aware if you’re looking for value on the Jets.

New York is capable of winning this game outright as Kansas City had to overcome a slow start in Week 1 to take the opener in overtime versus San Diego and then had trouble with a good defensive team in Houston for a Week 2 loss. The Jets are a very similar foe.

Jets fans should also like that New York has had an extended period of rest before Week 3, having played Buffalo last Thursday night. That brings us back to health as an all-important factor when looking at a line or potential performance expectation. All signs point to a quality game by New York and with the line at three, it’s hard to pass up the extra bounty of points.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 45)

Chicago is at Dallas this weekend and you may have to strike quickly on this last game as the line is in limited reach in Nevada but is up outside the betting region. The opening points ranged from Dallas -4.5 to -5 at four Nevada books, but this line should probably be at a touchdown minimum particularly if Cutler is bagged for the game. The Bears seem in disarray with losses mounting due to a stalling offense that has generated 14 points in each of their first two contests.

Dallas got off the schneid and picked up a big win in Washington this past weekend and should have a big emotional lift coming back home against the lowly Bears. Health again plays into this one and the Bears will have to quickly adjust their playcalling with another QB under center. All things into account, the value is if you can grab the bad line milling about in the Nevada market. What you may be seeing is a game off the board or a higher number. Call your uncle Morty to get down on the -4.5 or five.

 

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2-0 Playoff Trends

Which 2-0 Teams Could Miss The NFL Playoffs?

Everyone this week is speculating on which of the eight 0-2 teams will make the playoffs this season because just 10.3 percent of those teams starting with that record have done so since realignment in 2002.

How about the eight 2-0 teams?

Since the current playoff format was instituted in 1990, 134 of the 212 clubs (63.2 percent) to win their first two have reached the postseason.

However, two last years didn't: The New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons.

Here are the eight unbeaten this year and their odds to win their division.

New England (-400 in AFC East): The Patriots remain the biggest division favorites in the NFL even though they might have to play the next two weeks with third-third-around rookie Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after Jimmy Garoppolo injured his shoulder in Week 2's win over Miami. The Patriots are rare underdogs for Thursday night's home game against Houston because of Brissett. But Tom Brady will ride to the rescue in Week 5.

Pittsburgh (-155 in AFC North): The Steelers already have beaten 2015 playoff teams Washington and Cincinnati without top running back Le'Veon Bell and likely No. 2 receiver Markus Wheaton. The final game of Bell's suspension is this week at Philadelphia, a suddenly intriguing matchup, but Wheaton should return from injury.

Baltimore (+330 in AFC North): The Ravens were the most snake-bitten team in the NFL last year in terms of injuries and final-minute losses. Both their wins this year are by six points or fewer, albeit against potentially horrible teams in Buffalo and Cleveland. The Ravens are at a desperate Jacksonville team this Sunday in a pick'em matchup.

Houston (-170 in AFC South): The Texans could run away and hide with this division if they win at New England on Thursday, catching a huge break with the Brady suspension and then the Garoppolo injury. Houston's two projected top challengers in the South, Indianapolis and Jacksonville, are both winless.

Denver (+110 in AFC West): Trevor Siemian isn't losing games for the Broncos but he's not winning them -- that Von Miller-lead defense is. With Denver favored in the West, that means all four AFC division winners from last year are favored to repeat. The Broncos are underdogs this week in Cincinnati.

NY Giants (+115 in NFC East): Once Dallas lost Tony Romo to that broken vertebra in his back, the Giants became NFC East favorites. The New York offense hasn't started clicking yet, but the NFL's worst defense from 2015 has taken a huge step forward. The Giants can all but put away defending East champion Washington on Sunday in New Jersey with the Redskins at 0-2.

Philadelphia (+275 in NFC East): Clearly the surprise team on this list. Carson Wentz is an early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He is the first rookie quarterback since the merger to start and win his team's first two games of the season without throwing an interception. Impressive stuff even if the competition was Chicago and Cleveland. Different level of opponent Sunday vs. Pittsburgh.

Minnesota (+175 in NFC North): Although the Vikings have a one-game lead over the Packers and beat them last Sunday night, Green Bay remains the -160 favorite in the NFC North. That's partially due to the torn meniscus suffered by Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. His timetable is anywhere from missing no time to 10 weeks. Minnesota is a touchdown underdog in Week 3 at Carolina.

 

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Week 3 Underdogs

Week 2 saw plenty of the “sizeable underdogs” featured in this piece gets wins against the spread, but only Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta win outright.

The ML prices of +200, +240, and +180 respectively brought in a nice payday for bettors who weren't scared to bypass the points and take those three teams outright, but of the nine teams listed in last week's feature, nearly all of them but Tampa Bay were in their respective games until the end.

The Colts and 49ers gave up late scores to fall short ATS, but the fact that eight of the nine teams getting +4 or better last week were hovering around their point spread for the majority of the contest goest ot show you just how hard handicapping the NFL can be.

This week we've got another nine NFL underdogs fitting the +4 or greater description, so it's time to run through which one of them has got the best chance to win outright.

Week 3 Underdogs that Qualify

Buffalo Bills (+4.5); ML (+177)
Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+400)
Washington Redskins (+4.5); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7.5); ML (+300)
Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+260)
San Francisco 49ers (+9); ML (+330)
LA Rams (+5); ML (+190)
Philadelphia Eagles (+4); ML (+160)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+300)

There are a lot of ugly teams on that list and at first glance it's tough to see any of them pulling off the outright upset this week. For instance, Cleveland's in Miami and looking like a team that could challenge an 0-16 SU season this year, and Detroit's in Green Bay against a Packers team looking to rebound off one divisional loss already. San Fran is another divisional road underdog in Seattle, and while the Seahawks haven't looked good at all so far, it's likely only a matter of time before they turn this thing around and beating up on the hated 49ers may be exactly what they need.

Minnesota's a huge question mark with the injured roster they are trotting out there in Carolina on Sunday, and the Bears are forced to turn to journeyman QB Brian Hoyer in Dallas on SNF. That's a big chunk of that list already written off in terms of putting down a confident ML wager this week. The rest of that list leaves Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA (+190), and Philadelphia (+160).

Buffalo and Washington appear to have their own internal issues surfacing as there have been reports of a locker room divide in Washington and the Rex Ryan era in Buffalo may be over very shortly. Of the two, it's likely that Buffalo is the more desperate team this week given the division they are in and how hot the seat is that Ryan is currently occupying. Yet, with Arizona in town and New England on deck, the immediate future looks pretty bleak for the Bills right now and it's tough justifying a ML wager on them here.

The Rams have a tough scheduling spot themselves this week as they fly cross-country to Tampa to face an 1-1 Buccaneers team that got their butts handed to them last week. And while LA's defense has proved to be very formidable so far this year (3 total points allowed), it's very easy to see the Bucs take advantage of this tough spot LA is in and decide that game relatively early.

Philly hosts the Steelers in a in-state rivalry game that will be tough for the Eagles to pull off. Yes, they are they are 2-0 SU so far, but wins over the Browns and Bears don't exactly appear to be great wins in terms of competition level. Facing the Steelers will be a big step up in talent level for the Eagles and +160 just isn't enough to justify a wager there.

This underdog ML betting option board looks rather ugly in all, but the best option here has to be Washington. The Redskins are in an 0-2 SU hole and while there may be some locker room tension right now, a win would do wonders in removing that divide. It's a big rivalry game with the Giants and although much of the attention will be on the Norman/Beckham matchup on the outside, if Washington's offense can move the ball consistently against New York, they'll definitely have a chance to steal one on the road.

 

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NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

No one can say the first two weeks of the NFL season haven’t been eventful. Already, injuries and upsets have probably altered what you thought you knew when September began. Here’s all you need to know about Week 3’s slate:

Sunday, Sept. 25

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos hit the road for the first time this season as Trevor Siemian looks to continue his impressive start, but it’s the defense that has been the driving force for the defending champs. Von Miller was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week and has four sacks through two games. Even with DeMarcus Ware (fractured arm) out, Denver’s pressure should pose major issues for the Bengals, who have largely struggled offensively outside of hitting a few big plays to A.J. Green against New York’s Darrelle Revis in the season opener. Considering Cincy barely won that contest, a loss in its first home game could cause panic among the natives. The Broncos won last year’s meeting in Week 16 in OT 20-17, but neither starting QB in that game, Osweiler and A.J. McCarron, are expected to be a part of this one since Andy Dalton is healthy again.

Oakland at Tennessee: Second-year QB Marcus Mariota went from looking dehydrated on the sidelines to producing the largest Titans fourth-quarter comeback in a decade. Both the offensive line and secondary have stood out thus far for the Titans, making the first 2-1 start since 2013 possible with the Raiders in town. Only Oakland and Indianapolis have surrendered over 30 points in each of the first two games, but the Colts have an excuse given all their injuries. The Raiders have too much talent on that side of the ball to be struggling this much and picked off Mariota twice in last season’s 24-21 win in Nashville. Derek Carr threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Pats by trouncing the Bucs, but now have to go across the country to face a desperate Bills squad that should benefit from a few days of extra rest after playing last Thursday. With the buzzards circling around Rex Ryan and New England on tap next week, this is a must-win for a team that still has Sammy Watkins (foot) gutting it out through pain and top DT Marcell Dareus suspended. The Bills have actually won five of six in this series dating back to 1986 when the Cards were still in St. Louis. The franchise hasn’t tasted victory in Buffalo since 1971 and is playing for just the fourth time in Orchard Park, where Arizona has never won at the newly renamed New Era Field.

Baltimore at Jacksonville: The Ravens rallied past the Browns to improve to 2-0 and saw TE Dennis Pitta make a triumphant return from what many felt would be a career-ending injury. Despite the good vibes, the combined record of Baltimore’s opponents entering this one is 0-6 and Joe Flacco has looked rusty as he returns from last year’s ACL and MCL tears, so the Jaguars have an opportunity to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to December. Jacksonville hasn’t lost to Baltimore at home since 2001, winning the last two meetings. Jags kicker Jason Myers won last November’s Week 10 encounter with a 53-yard field goal at the gun, 22-20. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each caught TD passes from Blake Bortles.

Cleveland at Miami: Rookie Cody Kessler, who started for years at USC, will lead the Browns in place of Josh McCown (shoulder), becoming the third different player to open as Cleveland’s quarterback in as many weeks. The Dolphins have come up just short in losses in Seattle and New England and were encouraged by Sunday’s rally from a 31-3 deficit against the Patriots as QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm. Despite its 0-2 mark, Miami is about a double-digit favorite as it opens its home schedule but probably won't have top RB Arian Foster (groin), which means fumble-prone Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake would have to carry the ground game as the Dolphins make their regular-season debut at the newly renamed and renovated Hard Rock Stadium.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Despite puzzling playcalling in the red zone, New York survived in an unexpectedly low-scoring game against New Orleans and can go up three games on the ‘Skins in the NFC East by taking care of business here. Victor Cruz made another clutch catch to set up the win, but all eyes here will be on Odell Beckham Jr. as he matches up with Josh Norman for the first time after last season’s memorable fight-filled duel when the corner was a member of the Panthers. Washington won last season’s final encounter 20-14 to snap a five-game losing streak at the hands of their division rival, but it has only beaten the Giants once at Met Life Stadium in the past eight meetings (2011).

Detroit at Green Bay: Although Aaron Rodgers’ two costly fourth-quarter turnovers prevented the Packers from a win at NFC North rival Minnesota on Sunday night, he’s clearly more comfortable with Jordy Nelson back as his security blanket. The Packers will make their regular-season debut at Lambeau against a Lions squad that saw all the momentum from their Week 1 win over the Colts dashed by a late collapse at home against the Titans. Detroit snapped a 24-game losing streak in Green Bay that dated back to 1991 with an 18-16 win last season, but is reeling after losing RB Ameer Abdullah for the season due to a foot injury. He was averaging nearly 7 yards per touch through the first two games.

Minnesota at Carolina: Franchise RB Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus on Sunday night and has opted for surgery, which means the Vikings will likely be without him the rest of the season. Sam Bradford connected with Stefon Diggs the way predecessor Teddy Bridgewater was starting to, helping balance out the offense, so they should be able to move the ball even without Peterson if that continues. Minnesota’s defense looks fierce enough to give Cam Newton fits in what looks like perhaps the top matchup in the entire league this week. Including the last two postseasons, the Panthers have won 14 consecutive home games.

San Francisco at Seattle: It's obvious that Russell Wilson is operating at less than 75 percent due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 1 and the offense has struggled immensely as a result, producing a single touchdown and 15 total points through the first two weeks. The 49ers have been able to put points on the board behind Blaine Gabbert, so this game could get very interesting if the Seahawks continue to sputter. Top receiver Doug Baldwin (knee) and starting RB Thomas Rawls (leg) are both dealing with pain, so even if they play, the Seahawks appear limited given Wilson’s issues and the struggles of their offensive line. San Francisco is 1-7 against the Seahawks over the past few years, last winning at home in Dec. 2013. The Niners haven’t won in Seattle since 2011, losing five straight by a combined margin of 140-53.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: The Rams have only scored nine points in two games, but arrive in Florida 1-1 after taking down the Seahawks. Case Keenum will look to lead the offense to their first touchdown against a Bucs defense that got carved up in Arizona, but any chance of another upset hinges on turning over Jameis Winston, who went from being Week 1’s highest-rated QB to one of Week 2’s worst. Top RB Doug Martin (hamstring) won’t play, which will thrust Charles Sims into a starting role, backed by Jacquizz Rodgers. One of these teams will be a surprising 2-1 and tied for the lead in their division after this is in the books.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Keystone State’s NFL reps square off in the final game before Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension, so Pittsburgh hopes to get to its bye week unbeaten by continuing to ride DeAngelo Williams, who topped 10,000 career yards and is making the most of increased opportunities. The Eagles will be playing on a short week after defeating Chicago on Monday night, so you can understand why the surprising Carson Wentz and his teammates are a home underdog despite the rookie’s unexpected success. Philadelphia is 47-28-3 against the Steelers, but have lost two of the last three meetings over the past 12 years, including the most recent one (16-14) in 2012. The last three games in the series have gone well under the posted total.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City: Neither of these teams are likely to win their division, but both veteran squads expect to make the playoffs. That makes this showdown pivotal as one we’ll likely look back upon as a potential tiebreaker in the AFC playoff race. The Chiefs are expected to get Jamaal Charles back from his knee injury for his 2016 debut, while Jets WR Brandon Marshall survived his own knee scare last Thursday night and is listed as ‘probable’ here. Eric Decker (shoulder) and Quincy Enunwa (ribs) should also play as they try and pick up where they left off in combining for 317 yards on 18 receptions in a Thursday night win over Buffalo.

San Diego at Indianapolis: The Chargers have lost key offensive players to torn ACLs in each of the first two weeks, watching RB Danny Woodhead suffer the same fate that befell WR Keenan Allen in the season opener. The 0-2 Colts have seen their secondary decimated by injuries and are struggling with keeping Andrew Luck clean and giving him time to throw. Indy opened last year with consecutive losses before Luck led a wild 35-33 comeback win in Tennessee to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2011. The Colts shuffled their offensive line in that game and got clutch catches from Philip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief, receivers being counted on to continue making progress this season. We’ll see if history repeats itself, though Moncrief may miss time with a shoulder injury and is ‘questionable’.

Chicago at Dallas: The Bears will be back in prime time, looking to prevent Dak Prescott and the Cowboys from a second straight win. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has excelled in leading the Dallas ground game and keeping pressure off Tony Romo’s replacement, so all eyes will be on him to continue his strong start. Since the Monday night game featured so much attrition among the defense and also saw QB Jay Cutler (thumb) injured, the Bears are going to need an inspired effort from a depleted group to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight year under John Fox.

Monday, Sept. 26

Atlanta at New Orleans: This NFC South clash means everything to the Saints. Either they pull off a victory that renews hope in the Crescent City and rejuvenates the belief that having Drew Brees under center is like having a chip and chair or despair sets in early. The alternative, very simply, would feature finger-pointing. New Orleans would come out of Monday night 0-3, winless in two home games and very unhappy since blame could be laid anywhere. Sean Payton’s defense let it down in the season-opening loss to Oakland, while his offense managed a single touchdown in New York last Sunday. The Falcons are on the road for a second consecutive week and swept both games in this situation last season, winning in Weeks 2 and 3 at New York and Dallas en route to a 5-0 start. New Orleans swept the 2015 meetings.

 

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)

Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties

Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.

The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.

They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.

Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)

Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense

The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.

Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.

The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.

Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)

Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D

Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.

The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.

By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)

49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta

The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.

Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.

By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.

Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

As I'm sure you know by now, if your team starts 0-2 it's unlikely to make the playoffs while a 2-0 start means you can probably make postseason plans. Since 2007, 75 teams have started 0-2, and just seven of those made the playoffs -- two did last year, though, the Texans and Seahawks. Meanwhile, in the 75 times a team has started 2-0 in the past nine years, 44 made the postseason. But last year the Falcons and Cowboys were 2-0 teams to miss out.

We could see every reigning division champion in the AFC repeat as the Patriots, Steelers, Texans and Broncos are all 2-0. I do think that that all four will get back to the playoffs. Pittsburgh already has beaten two playoff teams from last year but is tied atop the AFC North Division with the conference's other 2-0 team, Baltimore. Houston already has a two-game lead over its two expected top challengers in the AFC South, Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The only 2-0 NFC teams are the Giants, whom I predicted to win the NFC East and Minnesota, which got a big win over visiting Green Bay on Sunday night but might have lost Adrian Peterson for a while. The Philadelphia Eagles could join the 2-0 club on Monday night, but I expect them to lose in Chicago.

Close games also have been the story of the early season. A total of 10 games in Week 2 entering Monday were decided by seven points or fewer. Through the first two weeks of the season there have been 21 games decided by seven points or fewer, the second-most in a season's first two weeks in NFL history (22 in 2013).

New England remains the +600 favorite to win Super Bowl LI even though it appears the Patriots will be starting third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett on Thursday night against Houston and potentially in Week 4 too. I won't delve into that Texans game here as I will be previewing that on Tuesday here at Doc's. I also won't touch on the marquee Sunday game (Lions-Packers) or the Monday night matchup (Falcons-Saints). Here are some other Week 3 games and opening lines that caught my eye.

Vikings at Panthers (-7.5, 43): This is one of three matchups in Week 3 that feature 2015 playoff teams against one another. Minnesota is awaiting word on the severity of Peterson's injured right knee, but I suppose it's a potentially good thing he didn't hurt the left knee, which already has a surgically repaired ACL. Peterson had minimal swelling and could extend his leg after the game, which is a good sign, but he's likely to miss at a week or two minimum. Peterson left against the Packers in the third quarter, but the Vikings defense and QB Sam Bradford both had strong games in the 17-14 win. Peterson wasn't a factor with 26 total yards on 14 touches before exiting. Still, his loss would be devastating. Carolina was a bit flat early in Sunday's game against San Francisco but woke up in the second half and rolled 46-27. Cam Newton threw for 353 yards and four touchdowns to become the franchise leader in TD passes. However, the Panthers lost their top running back, Jonathan Stewart, to a hamstring injury, and he's not likely this week. Fozzy Whittaker played well in his place vs. San Francisco. The pick: Panthers and "under."

Browns at Dolphins (-9, 41.5): No total posted yet because the "Factory of Sadness" might have to start third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler in this one. Of course the Browns lost Robert Griffin III to a broken bone in his shoulder in Week 1 and then Josh McCown suffered his own shoulder injury on Sunday as the Browns gagged away a 20-0 lead in their home opener vs. Baltimore and lost 25-20. McCown was to have an MRI on Monday, but based on the amount of pain he was in, the Browns are expecting him to be out awhile. I mean, it's the Browns so you know he will be. Kessler looked overmatched this preseason at times so I'd be betting under on Browns games for a while. The team will certainly need to sign a veteran backup, but there's not much out there. Miami lost starting running back Arian Foster in its loss to New England, and he's not expected to play here. The pick: Dolphins and under.

49ers at Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5): Interesting that Seattle could be a 9.5-point favorite considering it has scored 15 total points this season. The Seahawks were upset in Los Angeles on Sunday, 9-3. To make matters worse, top receiver Doug Baldwin was to have an MRI on Monday on his leg and running back Thomas Rawls injured his leg in the second quarter and didn't return, although his injury isn't thought to be serious. Baldwin, incidentally, has the team's only touchdown. The Seattle offensive line was a concern entering the season and it hasn't played well. It doesn't help that Russell Wilson's mobility is hampered by a high-ankle sprain. The Seahawks might not need many points to win this week as they have won five straight against the 49ers and allowed a total of 43 points in them. The pick: Love the under here. I guess under 10 I'd lean Seattle, but any double-digit spread I'd take the points.

Chargers at Colts (-2.5, 51.5): This has the highest total of any Sunday game by far, as it should (Falcons-Saints is higher next Monday). Neither team is very good defensively. The Colts are absolutely ravaged in their secondary. Already down three cornerbacks, they lost Darius Butler and Rashaan Melvin and safety Clayton Geathers during Sunday's 34-20 loss in Denver. Butler had a clear path to return an interception for a touchdown when his hamstring snapped, leaving him in a heap at midfield. Poor Andrew Luck, as he's going to have to probably lead the offense to 40 points to have much of a chance in most games. It's the third straight season the Colts have started 0-2. Why did GM Ryan Grigson and Coach Chuck Pagano get extensions after last season again? San Diego routed visiting Jacksonville 38-14 on Sunday in the Bolts' home opener to take a bit of pressure off Coach Mike McCoy. Philip Rivers tied his career high with four TD passes but may have lost one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL, Danny Woodhead, for a while. He was to have an MRI on his knee Monday. The pick: Colts and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)

Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties

Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.

The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.

They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.

Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)

Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense

The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.

Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.

The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.

Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)

Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D

Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.

The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.

By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)

49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta

The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.

Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.

By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.

Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trending road dogs seeing lots of love from NFL bettors in Week 3

Road underdogs are getting some love from bettors in Week 3 NFL action. We talk about a few of the line movers with Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, oddsmaker.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants – Open: -4.5; Move: -3

Washington is off to an 0-2 SU and ATS start this year, including last week’s 38-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point home underdog. But Redskins money is pushing the number lower for this 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff against New York. The Giants (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) have won their two games by a combined 4 points – 20-19 at Dallas as a 1-point pup and 16-13 over New Orleans laying 3.5 at home.

“That’s a big move, and it’s sharp money definitely,” Andrews said of action at South Point. “All the Redskins money is from the pros. The public is on the Giants, though. I don’t think it’s going to go any lower.”

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Open: -2; Move: +1.5

The Raiders (1-1 SU and ATS) stumbled to Atlanta 35-28 as 4-point home faves in Week 2, but bettors are all over them for this Week 3 road game. Tennessee (1-1 SU and ATS) came away with a 16-15 road victory over Detroit as a 6-point pup last week.

“On Monday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on the Raiders +2, so we moved the Raiders to +1,” Jerome said. “Then Friday afternoon, we got another sharp play on Oakland and moved the game to a pick 'em.”

Since then, it’s been more Raiders cash, moving Oakland to road favorite in another 1 p.m. Eastern contest.

“The heavy majority of the betting public agrees on Oakland, as the Raiders are getting 84 percent of all bets and 81 percent of the cash,” Jerome said.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers – Open: -8; Move: -7

Green Bay’s loss at Minnesota, punctuated by Aaron Rodgers’ penchant for turnovers, seems to have taken some shine off backing the Packers this week. The Pack fell to the Vikings 17-14 on Sunday night as 1.5-point chalk, with Rodgers throwing one interception and fumbling three times, and Minnesota recovering one of those fumbles.

Detroit had a solid Week 1 outright win at Indianapolis, then laid an egg in its home opener, losing 16-15 to Tennessee giving 6 points.
“Again, that’s a big move, and that one might go lower. It might go to 6.5,” Andrews said, noting sharps and the public are driving down the line for this 1 p.m. Eastern game. “That one’s got a little bit of both.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers – Open: -7.5; Move: -6.5

The loss of Adrian Peterson (knee) isn’t keeping bettors off Minnesota this week, so far. The Vikings bested Green Bay 17-14 catching 1.5 points at home in Week 2, with newly acquired quarterback Sam Bradford looking good and the defense forcing three turnovers.

Carolina bounced back from its season-opening loss at Denver to whip San Francisco 46-27 as a hefty 12-point home fave in Week 2. Still, the line for this 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff is tightening.

“That is strictly sharp money on the underdog,” Andrews said, while anticipating the chance for some buyback on the Panthers. “It might go back to 7.”

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -4; Move: -5.5, 5

After a dreadful Week 1 shutout loss at San Francisco, the Rams officially returned to Los Angeles with a 9-3 upset of Seattle as a 5.5-point ‘dog. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, got spanked in Week 2 40-7 as a 7.5-point pup at Arizona.

“On Monday evening, we got a sharp bet on Tampa Bay -4, so we moved Bucs to 5.5,” Jerome said, though the number is now at 5 for this 4:05 p.m. Eastern contest. “Seventy-seven percent of bets and 74 percent of the cash are taking Tampa Bay. I can see this game closing Bucs -6, but no higher.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 3 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

Nothing lasts forever, especially sports betting streaks. That’s just the nature of the beast.

But when you do get a hot streak going, not too much feels better. You feel invincible, like you couldn’t pick a loser if you tried. Then reality hits you in the face and you have to take your lumps.

That’s what happened to me last week.

Thanks to the Cowboys' 27-23 win last Sunday, my pup picks started a very nice 4-0 against the spread and I was pretty confident in my next picks: the Buccaneers and Jaguars. But then the Chargers and Cardinals happened. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville were down 24-0 and 21-0 respectively at halftime of their games. Ouch.

Needless to say, I had a losing record last week, but there's a lesson to take from this. Like in football, with proper preparation, you can bounce back, get right back up on that sports betting horse, and get ready for your next opponent.

That’s what the Chargers did in following a gut-wrenching Week 1 loss to the Chiefs, where they allowed Kansas City to come back, despite being down three scores in the fourth quarter.

It seemed to get worse for San Diego, losing Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead to season ending injuries. But Philip Rivers and San Diego bounced back, taking a 38-14 win over Jacksonville in Week 2.

Rivers, who has thrown for five touchdowns with zero interceptions this season and owns the third-highest passer rating at 120.3, gets a favorable matchup with a Colts team a week before Indy heads across the pond to London (a good sign for the Chargers, as noted by our astute Managing Editor Jason Logan in this week’s Muffed Punt).

The Colts defense is in shambles right now and could once again be without three starters in their secondary. Through two weeks they're giving up 299 passing yards per game, while allowing opponents to score a NFL high 73 points.

Additionally, the Chargers are a very impressive 7-0 ATS in their last four road games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus the Colts, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Rivers will have every opportunity to keep bouncing and we’ll bounce back along with him.

Pick: Chargers +2.5

Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Carolina Panthers

If you had told me four weeks ago that the Vikings would lose their starting backfield and would still not only be competitive, but still a contender, I would've called you crazy.

But that's exactly what has happened. Both Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson have been lost for extended periods of time with knee injuries, but Minnesota, has also bounced back from this.

Trading for quarterback Sam Bradford, who looked very impressive in his Vikings debut in a 17-14 over the division rival Packers, has evolved the Vikings offense, which also features wideout Stefon Diggs, who leads the NFL with 285 receiving yards.

Couple the new offense with their stout defense and the Vikings come out of the gates 2-0 SU/ATS. In fact, Minnesota has covered seven consecutive games, including playoffs, dating back to last season and is an NFL best 16-3 ATS since the start of 2015.

They face a tough Carolina team on the road, but a touchdown seems like too much.

Pick: Vikings +7

San Francisco 49ers (+10) at Seattle Seahawks

In this case, we’re hoping there’s no bounce back.

The Seahawks have scored just 15 points in two games this season and it wasn’t against the toughest of opponents in Miami and Los Angeles.

Seattle's’ offensive line is nowhere near as good as it used to be and Russell Wilson is clearly still hobbling with an ankle injury, making him not as mobile as he needs to be.

Meanwhile, the Chip Kelly offense has made an appearance in San Francisco, which if nothing else has looked competent through two weeks. The Niners are actually averaging 26.5 points per game and have done so against two good, if not great defenses in Carolina and Los Angeles.

So until this Seahawks' offense shows up, 10 points is just too many to pass up.I mean favored by 10 and you've only scored 15? C'mon.

Pick: 49ers +10

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 4-2 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: NFL teams suck something awful before playing in London
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL has a gambling problem. The professional football league continues to turn a blind eye on the impact that the sports betting community has on its popularity.

Whether it’s a detailed study on how football bettors are a far more engaged TV audience than non-betting football fans or simply walking into a jam-packed Las Vegas sportsbook and trying to find an open seat (you better get their at 5 a.m.): the NFL wants to hear about how sports betting is the gas on its financial fire about as much as you want to hear your wife’s recap of Keeping Up With The Kardashians.

That hypocrisy is taken a step further each and every time Roger Goodell sends his teams overseas to play in England, where sports betting is… brace yourself… legal. Isn’t that a sticky wicket!

The NFL has pushed “American Football” down the throats of UK sports fans since 2007, expanding from one game to as many as three, including next week’s meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.

And what will you find on the concourses of Wembley and Twickenham Stadium and their surrounding areas? Well, a butt-ton of sports betting kiosks, windows and parlors where patrons can place a wager on those NFL games before taking in the action live and in person. That’s what.

OK, I’ve soap boxed for long enough. It’s time to fight fire with fire. If the NFL continues to snub the importance of sports betting to its bottom line, I’ll use its beloved international series to drum up what Goodell and his goonies fear most – betting action itself (it’s ruining the integrity of the game! HAVEN’T YOU HEARD!). And I have just the trend to do it.

As mentioned above, the Colts and Jaguars will be packing their bags and heading to merry old England following their Week 3 contests. Perhaps it’s that overseas hike and all the logistics/complications that go with it that has led NFL teams to go just 8-20 SU and 7-20-1 ATS (26 percent) the game before playing in the UK.

That’s right. Getting slotted to play in one of these international games has been the kiss of death for teams the week before jumping the pond, which makes Indianapolis (-2.5 vs. San Diego) and Jacksonville (+1 vs. Baltimore) about as appealing as blood pudding (look it up, it’s British cuisine at its finest).

And, if you’re buying into this one-sided trend, you might as well parlay the Over along with those bets on the Bolts and Ravens. Those past 28 teams to play in the UK went 18-9-1 Over/Under the week before getting their passports stamped – a 67 percent Over winner. The Colts total is currently 51 points while the Jags have an O/U number of 47.

Who knows? This trend could continue to pay out in Week 3, and win you enough money to fly to the UK, buy a ticket for next week’s game, and have enough left over to place a bet before you take your seat among 80,000-plus British fans who have long accepted that gambling is woven into the fabric of sports.

Wouldn’t that piss the NFL off.

Getting out of the betting blocks

Heading into Sunday’s schedule, there are six teams that have gone 2-0 ATS to open the schedule and eight teams that have fallen behind at the book with a 0-2 ATS start. Here are a couple tidbits surrounding these good and bad bets out of the blocks:

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams are 75-55-4 ATS (58%) as an underdog in third game of the season since 1985. Buffalo +3.5, Jacksonville +1, Cleveland +10, Washington +3.5, and Chicago +7.5 fit this mold Sunday.

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams getting +7 or more points from sportsbooks are 33-17-2 ATS (66% ATS winner) in the third game of the season since 1985. Cleveland +10 and Chicago +7.5 fit this trend.

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams are 36-38-2 ATS as a favorite in third game of the season since 1985. Seattle -10, Indianapolis -2.5, and Kansas City -3 are in the mix here.

• 2-0 ATS NFL teams went 7-3 ATS in Week 3 last season but were just 20-27-6 ATS over the seven seasons prior (2008-2014).

• 2-0 ATS NFL teams are 41-43-4 ATS as underdogs and 53-53-5 ATS as favorites in their third games of the season since 1985.

Purple, and Gold… and Green

I’ve found out the hard way that the Minnesota Vikings are on a crazy ATS tear, picking against the Vikes the past two weeks in this column. Of course, Minny rolled Tennessee and then opened its new digs with a bang, taking down Green Bay last Sunday night – covering easily in both games. Fooled me twice. Shame on me.

Going back to last season, the Vikings have now covered in seven straight games, which is impressive but not close the longest ATS winning streaks in NFL history. Those seven straight paydays current rank tied for the 18th longest ATS run with 24 other teams going back to 1985.

The New England Patriots, rightfully so, own claim to the longest ATS heater, covering the spread in 14 straight games from October 13, 1985 to January 12, 1986. Behind the Pats are the San Diego Chargers, who rolled to 13 straight ATS wins from October 4, 1992 to January 2, 1993.

The Patriots hold the third-longest ATS streak as well, racking up 10 ATS victories in a row, between November 4, 2001 and February 3, 2002, when they stunned the St. Louis Rams 20-17 as 14-point underdogs in Super Bowl XXXVI.

If the Vikes can overcome the loss of their starting QB and star running back, and cover the seven points they’re getting from the Panthers Sunday, they would tie the nine teams who have won eight straight games against the spread.

Sharps like…

Detroit Lions. After two unimpressive games, bettors seem to be bailing on the Green Bay Packers. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, they opened this game at Packers -8 and took significant wagers on the underdog, including some sizable bets on the Detroit moneyline to win outright, which was paying +300.

"It's all been from pretty smart guys, so that's why we're down to Packers -7," says Simbal.

Biggest line move…

There are two games making major moves off their opening numbers. The Chicago Bears opened as 4-point road underdogs in Dallas before a disastrous showing against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. That, coupled with QB Jay Cutler and WR Alshon Jeffery being questionable, has one-sided action bumping this spread all the way to Chicago +7.

The other significant adjustment was the Cleveland Browns going from +7.5 to +10 at Miami. Cleveland is on its third quarterback of the season and faces an aggressive Dolphins defense. Unlike the Bears-Cowboys game, this move wasn't a reaction to action but more a reflection of the state of football in Cleveland.

"It's a move against a bad team," says Simbal. "I mean, if the Browns are 10-point dogs against the Dolphins, imagine what they would be against a playoff team."

Biggest sweat…

The Bears-Cowboys Sunday nighter has books feeling the heat, but another decision drawing one-sided money is Arizona traveling to Buffalo, where the Bills are pegged as 4-point home underdogs.

"Arizona is getting all that public money," says Simbal. "It's not really big bets coming in, but those $50 and $100 wagers all add up."

Banker game…

The sportsbooks' Sunday will come down to the final game on the docket: Chicago at Dallas. As mentioned above, this line moved significantly due to action on the Cowboys and Simbal says plenty of parlays will feed into the finale.

"We will be in a spot Sunday in which we'll be up money, and then that could either end up being a really good day or a negative day depending on the Sunday night game," he says. "This is the same situation as last week, with the public on the favorite and us needing the dog to come through and knock out those parlays."

Injury to note

Elvis Dumervil, LB Baltimore Ravens

Not every injury note is a subtraction. This week, the Ravens could get substantially better with the possible return of Elvis Dumervil. He’s yet to play in 2016 after undergoing offseason foot surgery. The linebacker returned to practice this week and baring a late setback, he’ll be ready to go against the Jaguars.

Dumervil is an elite pass rusher, and we all know how those guys can impact a game – especially if you’ve watched his former teammate Von Miller. Jacksonville has allowed five sacks in two games, including three in that embarrassing loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Dumervil had two sacks in last year’s loss to the Jags and has recorded a total of five sacks versus Jacksonville throughout his career.

We know how to pick’em

Speaking of Baltimore-Jacksonville. That game opened pick’em and is now sitting at Jags +1.5.


Sunday menu

Even though Canadian Thanksgiving is three weeks away, you can score some sweet deals on turkey in the ramp-up to the holiday. That’s just what I did this week and I’m not waiting until October 10 to dive in. Discount dirty bird is on the menu for this Sunday, which reminds me… I needed to start thawing that sucker like yesterday (Friday afternoon now).


Easy (money) like Sunday morning

As I alluded to above, my back-to-back picks against the Vikings backfired in Weeks 1 and 2, so more messing with Minnesota. This week, in order to get myself back on track, I’m sticking to my bread and butter: the NFC East.

It pains me to say this, as a Cowboys fan, but the New York Giants look damn good. The G-Men have started winning those close games and I think they have one of the best two-way teams in the NFL – thanks to all that big spending on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. And while picking the Giants kinda makes me sick to my stomach, picking against the Redskins balances out the nausea like a well-timed Bloody Mary.

Pick: Giants -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Muffed Punt: NFL teams suck something awful before playing in London
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL has a gambling problem. The professional football league continues to turn a blind eye on the impact that the sports betting community has on its popularity.

Whether it’s a detailed study on how football bettors are a far more engaged TV audience than non-betting football fans or simply walking into a jam-packed Las Vegas sportsbook and trying to find an open seat (you better get their at 5 a.m.): the NFL wants to hear about how sports betting is the gas on its financial fire about as much as you want to hear your wife’s recap of Keeping Up With The Kardashians.

That hypocrisy is taken a step further each and every time Roger Goodell sends his teams overseas to play in England, where sports betting is… brace yourself… legal. Isn’t that a sticky wicket!

The NFL has pushed “American Football” down the throats of UK sports fans since 2007, expanding from one game to as many as three, including next week’s meeting between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.

And what will you find on the concourses of Wembley and Twickenham Stadium and their surrounding areas? Well, a butt-ton of sports betting kiosks, windows and parlors where patrons can place a wager on those NFL games before taking in the action live and in person. That’s what.

OK, I’ve soap boxed for long enough. It’s time to fight fire with fire. If the NFL continues to snub the importance of sports betting to its bottom line, I’ll use its beloved international series to drum up what Goodell and his goonies fear most – betting action itself (it’s ruining the integrity of the game! HAVEN’T YOU HEARD!). And I have just the trend to do it.

As mentioned above, the Colts and Jaguars will be packing their bags and heading to merry old England following their Week 3 contests. Perhaps it’s that overseas hike and all the logistics/complications that go with it that has led NFL teams to go just 8-20 SU and 7-20-1 ATS (26 percent) the game before playing in the UK.

That’s right. Getting slotted to play in one of these international games has been the kiss of death for teams the week before jumping the pond, which makes Indianapolis (-2.5 vs. San Diego) and Jacksonville (+1 vs. Baltimore) about as appealing as blood pudding (look it up, it’s British cuisine at its finest).

And, if you’re buying into this one-sided trend, you might as well parlay the Over along with those bets on the Bolts and Ravens. Those past 28 teams to play in the UK went 18-9-1 Over/Under the week before getting their passports stamped – a 67 percent Over winner. The Colts total is currently 51 points while the Jags have an O/U number of 47.

Who knows? This trend could continue to pay out in Week 3, and win you enough money to fly to the UK, buy a ticket for next week’s game, and have enough left over to place a bet before you take your seat among 80,000-plus British fans who have long accepted that gambling is woven into the fabric of sports.

Wouldn’t that piss the NFL off.

Getting out of the betting blocks

Heading into Sunday’s schedule, there are six teams that have gone 2-0 ATS to open the schedule and eight teams that have fallen behind at the book with a 0-2 ATS start. Here are a couple tidbits surrounding these good and bad bets out of the blocks:

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams are 75-55-4 ATS (58%) as an underdog in third game of the season since 1985. Buffalo +3.5, Jacksonville +1, Cleveland +10, Washington +3.5, and Chicago +7.5 fit this mold Sunday.

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams getting +7 or more points from sportsbooks are 33-17-2 ATS (66% ATS winner) in the third game of the season since 1985. Cleveland +10 and Chicago +7.5 fit this trend.

• 0-2 ATS NFL teams are 36-38-2 ATS as a favorite in third game of the season since 1985. Seattle -10, Indianapolis -2.5, and Kansas City -3 are in the mix here.

• 2-0 ATS NFL teams went 7-3 ATS in Week 3 last season but were just 20-27-6 ATS over the seven seasons prior (2008-2014).

• 2-0 ATS NFL teams are 41-43-4 ATS as underdogs and 53-53-5 ATS as favorites in their third games of the season since 1985.

Purple, and Gold… and Green

I’ve found out the hard way that the Minnesota Vikings are on a crazy ATS tear, picking against the Vikes the past two weeks in this column. Of course, Minny rolled Tennessee and then opened its new digs with a bang, taking down Green Bay last Sunday night – covering easily in both games. Fooled me twice. Shame on me.

Going back to last season, the Vikings have now covered in seven straight games, which is impressive but not close the longest ATS winning streaks in NFL history. Those seven straight paydays current rank tied for the 18th longest ATS run with 24 other teams going back to 1985.

The New England Patriots, rightfully so, own claim to the longest ATS heater, covering the spread in 14 straight games from October 13, 1985 to January 12, 1986. Behind the Pats are the San Diego Chargers, who rolled to 13 straight ATS wins from October 4, 1992 to January 2, 1993.

The Patriots hold the third-longest ATS streak as well, racking up 10 ATS victories in a row, between November 4, 2001 and February 3, 2002, when they stunned the St. Louis Rams 20-17 as 14-point underdogs in Super Bowl XXXVI.

If the Vikes can overcome the loss of their starting QB and star running back, and cover the seven points they’re getting from the Panthers Sunday, they would tie the nine teams who have won eight straight games against the spread.

Sharps like…

Detroit Lions. After two unimpressive games, bettors seem to be bailing on the Green Bay Packers. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, they opened this game at Packers -8 and took significant wagers on the underdog, including some sizable bets on the Detroit moneyline to win outright, which was paying +300.

"It's all been from pretty smart guys, so that's why we're down to Packers -7," says Simbal.

Biggest line move…

There are two games making major moves off their opening numbers. The Chicago Bears opened as 4-point road underdogs in Dallas before a disastrous showing against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. That, coupled with QB Jay Cutler and WR Alshon Jeffery being questionable, has one-sided action bumping this spread all the way to Chicago +7.

The other significant adjustment was the Cleveland Browns going from +7.5 to +10 at Miami. Cleveland is on its third quarterback of the season and faces an aggressive Dolphins defense. Unlike the Bears-Cowboys game, this move wasn't a reaction to action but more a reflection of the state of football in Cleveland.

"It's a move against a bad team," says Simbal. "I mean, if the Browns are 10-point dogs against the Dolphins, imagine what they would be against a playoff team."

Biggest sweat…

The Bears-Cowboys Sunday nighter has books feeling the heat, but another decision drawing one-sided money is Arizona traveling to Buffalo, where the Bills are pegged as 4-point home underdogs.

"Arizona is getting all that public money," says Simbal. "It's not really big bets coming in, but those $50 and $100 wagers all add up."

Banker game…

The sportsbooks' Sunday will come down to the final game on the docket: Chicago at Dallas. As mentioned above, this line moved significantly due to action on the Cowboys and Simbal says plenty of parlays will feed into the finale.

"We will be in a spot Sunday in which we'll be up money, and then that could either end up being a really good day or a negative day depending on the Sunday night game," he says. "This is the same situation as last week, with the public on the favorite and us needing the dog to come through and knock out those parlays."

Injury to note

Elvis Dumervil, LB Baltimore Ravens

Not every injury note is a subtraction. This week, the Ravens could get substantially better with the possible return of Elvis Dumervil. He’s yet to play in 2016 after undergoing offseason foot surgery. The linebacker returned to practice this week and baring a late setback, he’ll be ready to go against the Jaguars.

Dumervil is an elite pass rusher, and we all know how those guys can impact a game – especially if you’ve watched his former teammate Von Miller. Jacksonville has allowed five sacks in two games, including three in that embarrassing loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Dumervil had two sacks in last year’s loss to the Jags and has recorded a total of five sacks versus Jacksonville throughout his career.

We know how to pick’em

Speaking of Baltimore-Jacksonville. That game opened pick’em and is now sitting at Jags +1.5.


Sunday menu

Even though Canadian Thanksgiving is three weeks away, you can score some sweet deals on turkey in the ramp-up to the holiday. That’s just what I did this week and I’m not waiting until October 10 to dive in. Discount dirty bird is on the menu for this Sunday, which reminds me… I needed to start thawing that sucker like yesterday (Friday afternoon now).


Easy (money) like Sunday morning

As I alluded to above, my back-to-back picks against the Vikings backfired in Weeks 1 and 2, so more messing with Minnesota. This week, in order to get myself back on track, I’m sticking to my bread and butter: the NFC East.

It pains me to say this, as a Cowboys fan, but the New York Giants look damn good. The G-Men have started winning those close games and I think they have one of the best two-way teams in the NFL – thanks to all that big spending on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. And while picking the Giants kinda makes me sick to my stomach, picking against the Redskins balances out the nausea like a well-timed Bloody Mary.

Pick: Giants -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 3

1) Pittsburgh -3.5 (663)
2) Arizona -4 (536)
3) Tampa Bay -5.5 (502)
4) Jacksonville PK (477)
5) San Diego +3 (418)


SuperContest Week 3 Matchups & Odds

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Houston (-1) 150 New England (+1) 126
Denver (+3.5) 391 Cincinnati (-3.5) 322
Oakland (+1.5) 363 Tennessee (-1.5) 281
Arizona (-4) 536 Buffalo (+4) 281
Baltimore (PK) 219 Jacksonville (PK) 477
Cleveland (+9.5) 84 Miami (-9.5) 395
Washington (+4.5) 383 N.Y. Giants (-4.5) 189
Detroit (+7.5) 377 Green Bay (-7.5) 146
Minnesota (+7) 263 Carolina (-7) 269
San Francisco (+9.5) 251 Seattle (-9.5) 161
Los Angeles (+5.5) 145 Tampa Bay (-5.5) 502
Pittsburgh (-3.5) 663 Philadelphia (+3.5) 203
N.Y. Jets (+3) 319 Kansas City (-3) 212
San Diego (+3) 418 Indianapolis (-3) 227
Chicago (+7.5) 294 Dallas (-7.5) 182
Atlanta (+3) 107 New Orleans (-3) 329


Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 3

Two weeks into the 2016 NFL season and it's been a pair of 1-1 ATS weeks for this feature. Last week it was the Arizona Cardinals and their thorough rebound in soundly beating Tampa that got us to the window, but a three-point win by the Giants wasn't enough to cover the spread. 50% isn't going to cut it in this business so it's time to start stringing together a couple of perfect weeks in a row, starting with these Week 3 best bets.

Best Bet #1: Carolina -7

Carolina rebounded in a big way last week after losing to Denver in Week 1 and their road to redemption should continue this week. They host a Minnesota team that has had nothing but bad luck on the injury front so far and should be able to take control of this game early on and go from there.

Minnesota may be 2-0 SU and ATS, but this is going to be their toughest test to date and they just don't have the weapons to keep up with the Panthers this week. They rank 28th in the league in offense with just 292.5 yards per game and only have two offensive TD's all year. It's still early in 2016, but averaging one offensive TD per game isn't going to get it done against a quality foe like Carolina and Vikings fans will likely be in for a rude awakening here.

Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 20-7-1 ATS run at home and have a 9-2 ATS run going after gaining 350+ yards in their last contest. Cam Newton and company completely dismantled the 49ers defense a week ago, and while Minnesota's defensive unit will be tougher, Carolina will find ways to consistently move the ball this week. Getting to 24 could likely be the magic number for the Panthers here as it's going to be tough for the Vikings to get 14+ points with the weapons they've got and Carolina's defense out there. We should see the Panthers reach that number in Week 3 and cash another ticket for bettors.

Best Bet #2: Tampa Bay -5.5

Speaking of offensively challenged teams like Minnesota, the Vikings two offensive TD's this year looks spectacular when you compare it with the Rams. Los Angeles has yet to score a touchdown of any kind through two games and while that will likely change this week against Tampa, the Rams won't score enough to keep up with Tampa in this spot.

The Bucs are looking to rebound after getting dismantled by Arizona last week and this is a perfect spot for them to do so. They are hosting a Rams team that's got to travel all the way across the country to play in a hot and muggy environment without a touchdown scored on the season. The perception of Tampa has changed a bit after the beating they took last week, but this is still a team on the rise and they'll show it this week.

Tampa is 7-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points last time out and have a 5-1 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points. They are also 10-4 ATS after failing to cover a spread and know how important a win this week would be for their goal of making the playoffs this year. These are the types of games and types of scheduling spots that a young team like Tampa has to take advantage of if they want to become a yearly contender in this league.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL picks: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

These Sunday marquee games have been good to me thus far as I've been right on the spread in the Giants over the Cowboys in Week 1 and the Steelers over the Bengals in Week 2. So I'll stick with an intradivision matchup this week as Detroit visits NFL rival Green Bay in the Packers' home opener.

The Packers (1-1) are lucky to not be 0-2 as the NFL recently acknowledged a ton of missed calls that essentially went against Jacksonville in Green Bay's 27-23 win there in Week 1. I don't know how that officiating crew is still employed after the NFL admitted the crew missed at least four pass interference calls committed on wide receiver Allen Robinson. But the big one was a missed defensive holding on Green Bay's Micah Hyde on Jags receiver Rashad Greene that would have given the Jaguars are first-and-goal from the Green Bay 9 with under a minute left. No sure thing the Jaguars punch that in for the win, but instead they were stopped on fourth down further back.

Detroit (1-1) probably ruined a few Survivor and Confidence Pools last week as the Lions blew a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead at home to Tennessee in a 16-15 defeat. The good news is that the winner of this game should be tied for first in the NFC North by Sunday evening as I don't expect Minnesota (2-0) to win in Carolina. Plus the Vikings now may be without their best offensive player, running back Adrian Peterson, for 3-4 months. The Packers are -160 favorites to win the division with the Lions at +1000.

Lions at Packers Betting Story Lines

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers was the heavy preseason favorite to win a third NFL MVP Award as everyone expected him to revert to his 2014 MVP form with the return of top receiver Jordy Nelson from an ACL injury that knocked him out all of last year. And while I'm sure a good 28 other teams would take Rodgers over their current QB, he hasn't been at a superstar level for a while. Last week in a 17-14 loss in Minnesota, Rodgers fumbled three times, losing one, and threw a crushing late interception that was completely his fault. Rodgers' rating this year is 82.6, which is 22nd in the NFL and one behind Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott. Rodgers hasn't had a game rating of at least 100 since the Packers' sixth game of last year (including playoffs). Green Bay is 6-8 in that stretch. Rodgers had the NFL's all-time passer-rating leader of 104.1 entering this season.

The Packers' play-calling seems rather predictable these days under Mike McCarthy as he basically stays in the same three-receiver sets. Nelson does have a touchdown catch in each game, so that's a positive. But he's averaging only 9.5 yards per catch. Randall Cobb looks nothing like the 2014 guy as he's averaging 9.0 yards per catch with no scores. And why not use Eddie Lacy more? He hasn't had more than 14 carries in a game but is averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry. Green Bay is 29th in the league in total offense. That's stunning.

Injury-wise, Green Bay for sure will be without nose tackle Letroy Guion as he suffered a knee injury in the Minnesota loss. Fellow lineman Mike Pennel has two more games to serve in his suspension. Safety Morgan Burnett is in question with a hamstring injury. Linebacker Clay Matthews is banged up but will go.

The Lions didn't just blow that lead last week against the Titans, allowing a 9-yard TD pass on fourth down with 1:13 left, but they were obliterated by injuries. The biggest was to starting running back Ameer Abdullah, who has been placed on injured reserve with a foot injury. Thus he will miss at least eight weeks and potentially the season. Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington should largely split the load with Abdullah out.

Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), linebacker Kyle Van Noy (calf) and linebacker Antwione Williams (thigh) also all left the Titans game injured. Ansah, the team's best defensive player, isn't going to play this week. Neither is the team's second-best guy, linebacker DeAndre Levy, who sat last week with a quad injury.

Detroit didn't look like a well-coached team last week, either, totaling more penalty yards (138) than rushing yards (137) and committing its most penalties, 17, since at least 1950. That's on you, Jim Caldwell.

Lions at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

Green Bay is an 8.5-point favorite (-130) with a total of 48. On the moneylines, the Packers are -360 and Lions +300. On the alternate lines, the Pack are -8 (+105), -7.5 (+100) and -7 (-120). Detroit is 1-1 against the spread this season (1-0 on road) and 1-1 "over/under" (1-0 on road). Green Bay is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U, both of course on the road.

The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs. the NFC. They are 2-7 ATS in their past nine inside the division. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a loss. It is 1-4 ATS in its past five at home. The under is 14-5 in Detroit's past 19 on the road. The under is 6-0 in Green Bay's past six at home. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Free NFL Picks: Lions at Packers Betting Predictions

These teams split two unlikely results last year, with the Lions winning 18-16 in Green Bay to end a 24-game road losing streak in the series, and the Packers winning 27-23 in Detroit on a 61-yard Hail Mary from Rodgers to tight end Richard Rodgers. The same referee from that game, for what it's worth, will ref this game.

This is the first of four straight games at Lambeau Field for the Packers. If the Lions were healthy, I would have jumped all over those 8.5 points. But they are far from that. I'll probably hold out for an alternate line of 6.5, but for now give those 7. Like under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
By Micah Roberts

For the second time in three weeks, the betting public was all over the a team favored over the Patriots and for the second time, New England made a resounding statement to never against them when their underdogs. Thursday night's 27-0 win over Houston led Las Vegas sports books to a winning day and didn't leave much carry over risk heading into Sunday's Week 3 action.

"It was a real good day with the Patriots for us," said South Point book director Chris Andrews. "It was made even better with Clemson covering (-10) at Georgia Tech. There was a little bit of wise guy play on Clemson, but the public was on the dog."

Just for future reference, whenever seeing the Patriots as an underdog, know that they have now covered eight of their last nine in that situation. And on the rare occasion when seeing the public collectively jump in on a 10-point underdog, it's a good sign to lay the favorite.

Andrews has been booking games in Nevada for the past 37 years and is in his first football season running the South Point book. He gave me a few minutes Friday afternoon to review what type of risk he's looking at for Sunday's games.

"We opened the Bengals -3.5 and with Andy Dalton being banged up we got some sharp money taking the Broncos, but it evened out with Bengals play when we went to -3," said Andrews, who has it mandated from owner Michael Guaghan to always use flat numbers. They're the only book in Las Vegas town that uses that policy. They hit their threshold soon after and moved back to -3.5. Stations and Coast are at -3 (-120). The total moved from 41 to 41.5 on Friday.

Tennessee hasn't moved all week from being a 1-point home favorite over Oakland -- a few books have them -1.5. The total is sitting at 47 where it opened, with a brief stint at 46.5. The Raiders defense has given up an average of 517 yards per game between a thrilling win at New Orleans and last weeks home loss to Atlanta.

Buffalo is 0-2 with Rex Ryan on the hot seat already, but they have some supporters in Las Vegas as the Cardinals visit. "Wise guys are on Buffalo which moved us from +4.5 to +4, but the public is all over the Cards," said Andrews. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5.

It's rare that the sharp and public money are both on the same side, but Andrews says that's what's happening with Baltimore in its game at Jacksonville. The South Point has the Ravens -1 and the total has dropped from 47.5 to 47.

Miami is a 9.5-point home favorite over Cleveland, who will be starting rookie Cody Kessler. "We've had decent two-way action on the game," said Andrews, who hasn't moved the number. The total went up from 41.5 to 42 on Wednesday.

The Giants opened as 5-point home favorites against the Redskins and were bet down from the dead number to -4.5 on Wednesday and a couple of large Redskins wagers came in on Friday pushing the number down to -4 and -3.5. Wynn, Caesars and the Golden Nugget all moved to -3.5 on Friday as well. The total has moved up from 46.5 to 46. The Redskins halted a Giants five game win and cover streak with a 20-14 home win in the last meeting in November.

"We took a real big play on Detroit at +8 on Monday," said Andrews, who moved the road dog from +7.5 to +7 on Thursday. "But we're loaded again on the Packers with all the public parlay play." The Lions have won three of the past five meetings, including their first win at Green Bay since 1991 last season. The total is sitting steady at 48 with a low of 47 sitting at Wynn.

Within an hour of opening Carolina as 7.5-point home favorites over Minnesota on Monday, Vikings money was quickly dropped down at the South Point book and they've been at -7 since. The total hasn't moved off 43. The Vikings have covered their last eight road games. Their last road fail was a Monday night Week 1 loss at San Francisco last season.

San Francisco is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Seattle, but after the Seahawks looked very sluggish in their first two games, the public isn't so keen laying double-digits with them at home, and they love the Seahawks almost every week in their parlays. The first large wager Andrews took on the game was Tuesday on the 49ers at +10 pushing it to 9.5 where it's stayed the rest of the week. The total has jumped up from 40.5 to 41.5 despite Seattle's average score between games against Miami and Los Angeles being a paltry 7.5-to-7.5.

"The biggest bet game of the week is Pittsburgh at Phialdelphia, "said Andrews. "We're sitting even on the game, very balanced, which is kind of surprising because the Steelers are a very public team and have covered both their games. The people like what Carson Wentz is doing so far. They believe in him." The Eagles have covered both their games as well and the game has been sitting Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites all week. The total was bumped up from 46 to 47 on Friday.

"We've had big action on the Jets all week," said Andrews. "I didn't want, but we finally had to go to Chiefs -2.5 on Friday." Andrews opened the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites on Monday and got peppered with Jets money multiple times since Tuesday at +3 before reluctantly moving, It's a bookmakers worst nightmare to cross over 3 and have the favored team win by 3 -- lose on the dog money at +3.5, refund +3 and lose on -2.5. There is no other -2.5 in town with every other book at -3 (EV). The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.

"The wise guys took +3 with the Chargers, but the public is on the Colts," Andrews said. The Colts opened as 3-point home favorites over the Chargers and within 40 minutes they moved to -2.5 and on Friday they went to -2. Stations is the only book holding tight at -3 (EV). The total is if 51.5 to 52 throughout town.

After the Jay Cutler injury, the South Point opened Dallas as 7.5-point home favorites over Chicago, and they got Bears money within two hours to push them to -7. Brian Hoyer will start for Cutler. The total has gone from 45 to 44.5.

On Monday night, New Orleans is a 3-point home favorite against Atlanta in a match-up between two of the four worst defenses in the league. So it's understandable that the total is set at 53.5, where the Saints have gone 6-0-1 to the Over in their last seven home games. "This might be the lowest handled Monday Night Football game in its history," Andrews joked. "We don't have anything on it."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 3 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

I touched on the chances of 0-2 and 2-0 teams historically making the playoffs in my Opening Line Report on Monday, but now I have actual props to use for those unbeaten teams.

The site gives an "over/under" of 1.5 for the eight teams that started 0-2 making the playoffs, with the under a big -250 favorite. And I'd go under there as I'm not sure any will except maybe the Colts or Jaguars. Enough said. Meanwhile, the total is 6.5 of the eight teams that started 2-0 to make the postseason, with the under a big -300 favorite. I'm a bit surprised this prop was still up Friday after 2-0 teams Houston and New England met on Thursday night. And I'll admit I fell into the trap of focusing just on the quarterbacks in that game, favoring Houston because the Patriots were starting third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett. I really have to stop doubting Bill Belichick as the Patriots destroyed the Texans 27-0. The Pats didn't win because of Brissett, who was 11-for-19 for 103 yards with a 27-yard rushing score, but didn't lose because of him, and that's good coaching. I obviously overestimated that Houston offense, which did squat.

The Patriots are locks for the playoffs now at 3-0 and with Tom Brady back in Week 5. I still think Houston makes it. Ditto on Denver in the AFC West. The AFC North has Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and for sure yes on the Steelers barring a Ben Roethlisberger injury. No on the Ravens. The NFC East is the other division with two unbeaten teams. The Giants will win the East and get in, while the Eagles are a nice story but won't make the playoffs.

As for the Vikings. I can't remember a team being more devastated by injuries. Of course, QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost a couple of weeks before the regular season when his knee exploded even though Bridgewater wasn't touched. On Monday, I wrote that Adrian Peterson had a torn meniscus and was likely to miss a game or two but that it was possible to play through it. Except that Peterson chose to have surgery, which probably ends his season. I honestly think how the Vikings treated Peterson during that whole child abuse thing and suspension played a role here. Peterson feels no loyalty to that team. So why play on an injured knee and risk further injury? Take your cash and worry about next season (in which I don't think he's a Viking). Minnesota also lost left tackle Matt Kalil for the year. And defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd had arthroscopic surgery on his knee this week and will miss multiple games. Minnesota visits Carolina on Sunday -- apparently the game will be played in Charlotte despite all the civil unrest in the city -- and despite all the Vikings injuries, the line actually has dropped from Panthers -7.5 to -7.

The biggest line shift of the week has been Miami going from -7 to -10 in the Dolphins' home opener against Cleveland, but I touched on that game Monday. Sportsbooks offer some props on Browns rookie QB Cody Kessler's statistics in his first NFL start so check those out.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 3.

Cardinals at Bills (+3.5, 47): Buffalo is the biggest home dog on the board, and Arizona is taking the biggest lean at most sportsbooks. It's the Bills' first game since firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman and promoting Anthony Lynn in a clear desperation move by Rex Ryan. Bovada asks if he will be fired before Week 17, with yes at even money and no at -140. If you follow my stories, you will know I predicted Ryan to be the first coach fired this season. One reason I think Ryan dumped Roman? Because Roman could have replaced Ryan as head coach -- he was a finalist originally with Ryan. If Buffalo gets stomped here, Ryan might not be on the sideline next week in New England, which is another likely loss. The Bills will again be without left tackle Cordy Glenn in Week 3 and top receiver Sammy Watkins is in question with a foot injury. If you watched last Thursday's Jets-Bills game, you could tell he's not right. The Cardinals are pretty healthy in what could be a major trap game for them with the early start and facing a desperate team.

Raiders at Titans (-2, 46.5): This line opened at pick'em. Here's something you don't see often -- Tennessee as a home favorite against a team other than Jacksonville. Be aware that the Titans have failed to cover their past six as a home favorite. Even though it's a cross-country trip and a 10 a.m. Pacific time start, this is one of those games the Raiders need to win if they are a legitimate playoff contender this season, as I expected them to be. Especially with a trip to Baltimore next week -- will the Raiders stay on the East Coast somewhere this week? Oakland cornerback David Amerson, who has the team's only interception this season, has cleared the NFL's concussion protocol and will play. Last season in a 24-21 win over the Titans, Amerson had the game of his career as he set a Raiders record with six passes defensed, and also secured an interception and two tackles.

Bears at Cowboys (-7, 44.5): This is the Sunday night game. If you are inclined to give the points here, as I am, I'd do so now because this line has moved to 7.5 at some sportsbooks. Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to miss a couple of weeks with a thumb injury, although he reportedly is bugging the coaching staff to let him play. I doubt that happens if you watched him in Monday night's loss to Philadelphia. If Cutler is healthy enough to play, then he has no excuses for a terrible fumble and interception vs. the Eagles. It will almost surely be Brian Hoyer under center. But will Hoyer have No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery? The Bears didn't pursue a long-term contract with Jeffery this offseason because the guy is always banged up. So the team slapped the franchise tag on him. He's hurt again, dealing with a knee injury and questionable for Sunday. I give the Bears little chance of winning here regardless but almost none with if their only playmaker is out. In addition, a handful of defensive starters are out, led by nose tackle Eddie Goldman and linebackers Lamarr Houston (done for year) and Danny Trevathan. Bovada offers a prop on this game regarding how many times Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott will fumble. He put it on the ground twice in a span of four carries during the final six minutes last week in Washington and lost one. Coach Jason Garrett benched Elliott and Alfred Morris scored the winning touchdown. Elliott is given an O/U of 0.5 fumbles, with the under a -200 favorite. That's the smart play. Elliott, incidentally, is now the +240 second-favorite for Rookie of the Year behind Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (+150).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers

Week 2 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS

Review: The Falcons and Cowboys both won outright as road underdogs, while the Cardinals and Texans took care of business as home favorites. The two losses came by the Colts and Bengals on the highway, but we’ll take a winning week.

Broncos at Bengals (-3, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Denver
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The post-Peyton Manning era in Denver hasn’t been a disappointment, as the Broncos have picked up home victories over the Panthers and Colts. Denver’s defense stepped up with a pair of second-half defensive touchdowns in a 34-20 triumph over Indianapolis last week as six-point favorites. Last season, the Broncos covered in all six opportunities as an underdog, while cashing in Week 1’s comeback win against Carolina as a slight ‘dog. Denver held off Cincinnati at home last December, 20-17, but failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites.

Cincinnati
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals play their home opener on Sunday after dropping a 24-16 decision to the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, the Steelers. Cincinnati has been outgained on the ground in both games, while picking up only 46 rushing yards on 18 carries against Pittsburgh. The Bengals own an 11-4-1 record in their past 16 regular season home contests with three of those losses coming to division foes. Cincinnati has won and covered five consecutive September home games since 2013, including three victories by double-digits.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3

Redskins at Giants (-4 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Redskins captured the NFC East championship last season at 9-7, but Washington has stumbled to an 0-2 start following home losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Cowboys and Redskins went back and forth before Dallas scored a touchdown with five minutes left to grab a 27-23 victory at FedEx Field. Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards in the defeat for Washington, but the ‘Skins fell to 1-4 in their last five home contests. Washington wrapped up the 2015 season with three consecutive road victories, all in the underdog role. However, the Redskins have lost four straight meetings at Met Life Stadium, including three in a row by double-digits at New York.

New York
Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Giants have squeezed by in both of their victories over the Cowboys and Saints, winning the two games by a combined four points. New York’s offense failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 16-13 triumph over New Orleans, as the Giants relied on its special teams for three field goals and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. New York’s defense has given up only two touchdowns through two games resulting in a pair of UNDERS, as the Giants closed out last season with four consecutive OVERS. However, New York has gone OVER the total in five of the previous six home divisional contests since 2014.

Best Bet: Washington +4 ½

Lions at Packers (-7 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Detroit
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

The Lions melted down late in last Sunday’s 16-15 home setback to the Titans, blowing a 15-3 fourth quarter lead. Detroit cashed as an underdog in Week 1 at Indianapolis, but couldn’t take home the money as six-point favorites against Tennessee, dropping to 2-7 the last nine years in Week 2. The Lions snapped a 23-game losing streak at Green Bay in last season’s 18-16 triumph as 10-point underdogs, while losing the second matchup with the Packers on Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds at Ford Field, 27-23.

Green Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Packers held off the Jaguars in Week 1, but were tripped up by the Vikings in Week 2 in a 17-14 defeat as short favorites. Green Bay’s offense was held to 263 yards in last Sunday’s loss, as the Packers have yet to bust the 300-yard mark in two games. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay owns an 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS record in home openers, while scoring at least 27 points in five of their last six openers at Lambeau Field. In 2014, the Packers won and covered all three home divisional games, winning by an average of nearly four touchdowns. Last season, Green Bay lost all three NFC North contests at home, while scoring 16 points or fewer in all three defeats.

Best Bet: Detroit +7 ½

Vikings at Panthers (-7, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in training camp to a season-ending knee injury. It got worse for Minnesota when star running back Adrian Peterson suffered a knee injury that will sideline the former rushing champion for a majority, if not the rest of the season. The Vikings found a way to knock off the Packers, 17-14 as short home underdogs, as Sam Bradford performed well in his Minnesota debut by throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota owns an 11-3 ATS record as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer, but two of those losses came as a ‘dog of a touchdown or higher.

Carolina
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Panthers rebounded from their late meltdown in a Week 1 defeat at Denver as Carolina blasted San Francisco, 46-27 as 12-point home favorites in Week 2. Cam Newton torched the 49ers for 353 yards and four touchdowns as Carolina extended its winning streak at Bank of America Stadium to 14 games. The Panthers have covered nine of their past 11 home contests, including a 3-1 ATS mark in this stretch as a favorite of seven points or more. Carolina is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2011, while the Panthers look to avenge a 31-13 road drubbing to the Vikings in 2014.

Best Bet: Carolina -7

Steelers (-3 ½, 46) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST

Pittsburgh
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

Both Keystone State teams have jumped out to 2-0 starts, as the Steelers has held their first two opponents to a total of two touchdowns. Pittsburgh dominated Washington in the opener, followed by a 24-16 home triumph over Cincinnati to improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2010. The Steelers have owned the NFC recently by winning six of the past seven interconference games since 2013, including three consecutive victories in the favorite role. Dating back to the start of 2015, Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in nine of 11 road games, while allowing 20 points or less in four straight as an away favorite.

Philadelphia
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Eagles are more of a 2-0 surprise than their Pennsylvania counterparts, as rookie Carson Wentz has led Philadelphia to victories over Cleveland and Chicago. Granted, both the Browns and Bears have combined to start 0-4, but Wentz has yet to throw an interception, while the Eagles’ defense has allowed 24 points. With the departure of Chip Kelly and hiring of Doug Pederson, Philadelphia isn’t playing uptempo football this season after closing out last season on a 7-2 run to the OVER. The Eagles have limped to a 4-7 record in the past 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, as two of those wins are over Cleveland and Buffalo.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3 ½

Jets at Chiefs (-3, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

New York
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Jets’ offense was flying high in last Thursday 37-31 victory at Buffalo, racking up nearly 500 yards of offense, including 374 yards through the air from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte continued to run the ball well in his second game with the Jets, finding the end zone three times, while both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall eclipsed the 100-yard mark receiving. The Jets own a 2-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog under Todd Bowles, while New York hasn’t won consecutive away games since 2010.

Kansas City
Record: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Chiefs overcame a 21-point deficit in their Week 1 overtime triumph over the Chargers, but Kansas City failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 19-12 setback at Houston. That loss snapped an 11-game regular season winning streak for Kansas City, but the Chiefs will carry a six-game hot streak at Arrowhead Stadium going into Sunday. The Chiefs have failed to cover four consecutive home games since last December, but in all four of those contests, Kansas City was listed as a 6 ½-point favorite or higher.

Best Bet: Kansas City -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David

Week 2 Recap

Another solid back-and-forth week in the totals market as bettors watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 with the lone push coming on Monday and that outcome between the Eagles and Bears was helped with 27 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes.

Second-half scoring surges were a common theme last weekend and bettors playing the ‘under’ in a few late games caught some tough breaks in the below games.

Colts-Broncos: 35 points in second-half, two defensive scores by Denver in fourth
Falcons-Raiders: 39 second-half points
Jaguars-Chargers: 31 points with Jacksonville adding meaningless score with 1:03 remaining

Through two weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 16-15-1 through 32 games.

Quick Observations

It’s rare to see totals listed below 40 points in the NFL these days but the first one of the season saw the ‘under’ (38) connect easily as the Rams beat the Seahawks 9-3.

After seeing the two highest totals go ‘over’ in Week 1, bettors watched the highest numbers in Week 2 go ‘under’ the number. (Saints-Giants 54, Buccaneers-Cardinals 49).

Five teams (Buccaneers, Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders, Colts) in the NFL are allowing 30-plus points per game through two weeks and four of them are allowing 395 total yards of defense. The one outlier is Jacksonville (325 YPG) and it’s actually outgained its first two opponents but turnovers (4/1) have been killers.

The Chargers are averaging 21 points in the first half this season, which is the best in the league. The Raiders lead the league with 23 PPG in the second-half. For those interested, Cleveland has only scored three points in the second-half this season and Baltimore hasn’t allowed a point in the final 30 minutes of each of their first two games.

Cody Kessler will be the fourth rookie quarterback to start a game this season when he suits up for Cleveland against Miami. Bettors could be hesitant to back the young guns but Carson Wentz (29 PPG) and Dak Prescott (23 PPG) have been decent and the Patriots just scored 27 on Thursday with Jacoby Brissett under center.

Non-Conference Action

Through two weeks of the season, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 in 12 non-conference games and this week’s card has two matchups on tap. I dug up some numbers on this week’s games and there are some strong scoring tendencies for both visitors.

Arizona at Buffalo: This will be the first road game of the season for the Cardinals and bettors saw the club go 6-3 to the high side last season when away. Digging deeper into Arizona, we found out that the team is averaging 26.4 PPG on the road in non-divisional games since head coach Bruce Arians took over. The Buffalo defense (400 YPG) hasn’t looked sharp this season and followers of this column are aware that this matchup fits the “Thursday Night Total” system since the Bills played the midweek game in Week 2. The Bills offense will have a new coordinator in Anthony Lynn running the show this Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Steelers have seen the ‘over’ go 11-3 in their last 14 games versus the NFC and they’re averaging 29.7 PPG during this span, which includes their 38-16 win at Washington in Week 1. The Eagles defense (286 YPG, 12 PPG) has started off very strong but facing Big Ben is a huge step up in class from RG3 and Jay Cutler.

Divisional Battles

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Tale of two different tapes for this matchup with the Redskins 2-0 to the ‘over’ while the Giants have seen the ‘under’ connect in their first two games. New York’s defense (16 PPG, 308 YPG) has looked much better early in the season while Washington’s unit (408.5 YPG, 32.5 PPG) continues to look suspect. QB Kirk Cousins has struggled in his career (1-3) versus the Giants with 8 interceptions (3 TDs) and this appears to be a better New York defense. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Detroit at Green Bay: Three of the last six meetings in this series have seen exactly 50 points scored, while the pair combined for 31, 26 and 34 points in the other three contests. Those outcomes have produced a 3-3 total mark during this span. You might be surprised but Detroit’s offense (411.5 YPG) is much better than Green Bay (287 YPG) thus far and even though the Lions put up 15 points last week, three touchdowns were called back on penalties.

San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (40 ½) on the board and it could be hard making a case for the ‘over’ based on what we’ve seen from Seattle. The Seahawks defense (9.5 PPG) is miles ahead of their offense (7.5 PPG) and the health of QB Russell Wilson remains a concern behind an average offensive line. Surprisingly, the 49ers are averaging 27.5 PPG after two games but that number was helped with plenty of short tracks due to turnovers. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and San Francisco has scored a total of 26 points in the last four encounters.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s easy ‘under’ winner between the Patriots and Texans, I’m guessing the bookmakers are happy with the primetime results this season. We’ve seen one unexpected shootout, a few low-scoring affairs and some great middle opportunities for savvy players. Headed into this weekend, the ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3-1 edge.

Chicago at Dallas: Very tough total to handicap here due to the quarterback situation for both teams but the early money has pushed the odds from 45 ½ to 44. Brian Hoyer will get the start at QB for Chicago and while he’s not special, he’s capable. In 10 starts for the Texans last season, the team scored 20-plus in seven of those games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott hasn’t looked like a rookie but he’s been held back with the club trying to establish the run (60 carries) the first two weeks. Defensively, Chicago is better than advertised while the Cowboys “bend but don’t break” plan has worked, so far. These teams have played three times since 2012 and the ‘over’ has connected easily with combined scores of 52, 73 and 69 points posted.

Atlanta at New Orleans: These “indoor” teams always seem to warrant a high total when they get together based on public perception but bettors should be aware that the ‘under’ is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first two games behind an offense (451 YPG) that is clicking on all cylinders and it will be facing a New Orleans defense (452 YPG) that has looked atrocious. The Saints offense has always played better at home and the Falcons defense has surrendered 59 points in their first two games.

Fearless Predictions

Fair to say we never had a shot on either of my first two plays but the team total connected easily and the teaser was never in doubt. Despite dropping 10 cents ($10), the bankroll ($190) is still in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Philadelphia 46 ½

Best Under: Minnesota-Carolina 42 ½

Best Team Total: Over 26 Indianapolis

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 51 ½ Minnesota-Carolina
Over 38 Arizona-Buffalo
Over 44 ½ Atlanta-New Orleans

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 12-0 ATS since Dec 24, 2011 at home after a loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 ATS since Nov 17, 2002 at home as a favorite when they had no more than 15 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-9-1 OU since Jan 01, 2012 on the road when facing a team Antonio Brown had at least 75 yards against last meeting.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11 OU since Dec 13, 2009 at home after they had less than 28 minutes time of possession last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU since Dec 25, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they had less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Packers are 15-0 OU as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Bears at Cowboys
By Micah Roberts

How 'bout them Cowboys!

After an emotional come from behind win at Washington last week led by rookie back-up quarterback Dak Prescott, there's plenty of optimism that things will be just fine in Dallas until Tony Romo's broken back heals. However, optimism doesn't seem to be the word to describe their opponents story as the Bears visit AT&T Stadium in Week 3 for Sunday Night Football.

Not only has Chicago started an ugly 0-2 -- no covers, either -- but they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to a thumb injury in a Monday night home loss to Philadelphia. Journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, in his eighth season out of Michigan State, will get the starting assignment. The Bears also have several other players listed as 'questionable' or 'out' for the game.

The Cowboys, with it's massive offensive line and a young QB full of confidence, appear to be in store for another win. But what really matters to most of us is whether or not they can win by seven points or more.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas set the Cowboys as six-point favorites in April when releasing all numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. That was when both Romo and Cutler were expected to start. On Sunday night they set the number at Cowboys -4 when it was Prescott vs Cutler. On Monday, prior to the MNF game, the Cowboys were bet up to -5.5. After the loss to Philly, and losing Cutler, the number was re-posted at -7.5 (EVEN). Bears money has pushed them down during the week to -7 (EVEN). Five other books around town have -6.5 posted. The total has dropped from 45 down to 44.5.

WHO WILL THE BOOKS NEED?

Despite some respected money playing the Bears, this is going to be a one-sided bet game and a game that will help make of break the books' day. After parlay risk piles up from the first 13 games on Sunday, the risk on Dallas is going going to multiply drastically. That will put the books in a situation needing to even things out by moving the number which means if liking Dallas, you should probably lay -6.5 as soon as possible. If you're looking for action on the Bears, wait closer to kick-off and see if you get +7.5.

LAST WEEK

The Bears were 3-point home favorites over the Eagles and lost 29-14 with the help of losing the turnover battle 3-0. The Eagles held on to the ball for 36 minutes. The total barely went 'over' (42) the closing number.

The Cowboys showed some grit in their 27-21 come from behind win at Washington where the Redskins were 3.5-point favorites. Sharp moved the Redskins. The public loved the Cowboys. Prescott showed his outstanding preaseason wasn't a fluke as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards. One week after catching only one pass for eight yards against the Giants, Dez Bryant caught seven for 102 yards. Bettors loved the 'over' and got there with a number that ran from 44.5 to 47.

RECENT MEETINGS

Dallas won the last meeting, 41-28, as a four-point road underdog in 2014 which halted a four game Bears win and cover streak in the series. The past five meetings have gone 'over' the total between the pair.

TRENDS

-- Dallas is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.
-- Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.
-- Dallas has stayed 'under' in five of its last seven games.

-- Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.
-- Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
-- Chicago has gone Over total in 22 of its last 32 road games.

HOYER NOT A HUGE DROP OFF

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the Cowboys -3.5 in their early Week 3 numbers. On Tuesday they re-adjusted to -7.5 after the MNF home loss. Is Cutler really 4-points better than Hoyer? The answer is no. They're actually close to being even, despite the large salary disparity. Beyond 2015 stats that were similar -- Howyer had 19 TDs and seven picks, Cutler had 21 TDs and 11 picks -- Hoyer led the Texans to the playoffs by winning four of his last six regular season starts. Cutler has led the Bears to the playoffs only once (2010) in his seven years and the the Bears have finished dead last in the NFC North the last two seasons. Hoyer can't come close to matching Cutler's physical attributes, but he's better than Cutler in other areas. The actual reason for such a huge swing in the number is the Bears team rating being downgraded and multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Let's call Cutler worth only 1.5-point over Hoyer.

INJURIES

In addition to Cutler's thumb keeping him out, the Bears have several other key personnel injured. WR Alshon Jeffrey (knee) didn't practice Thursday and is listed as 'questionable.' Starting safety Adrian Amos (concussion) is 'questionable' as is CB Kyle Fuller (knee) and DB Deon Bush (head). ILB Danny Trevathan (thumb), NT Eddie Goldman (ankle) and OLB Lamarr Houston (ACL) are ruled 'out' along with back-up RB Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring). That is one heck of a crowded MASH unit.

The Cowboys have a couple of starters banged up as well. DE Jack Crawford (shoulder), CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstring) and OT Doug Free (quadricep) are all listed as 'questionable.' Back-up OL Ronald Leary (groin) missed the last game and did back-up DE Charles Tapper (back) and both are 'questionable' as well.

FUTURES

The only team the Westgate has with higher Super Bowl odds than the Bears at 150/1 is Cleveland at 1,000/1. That's quite a boost after opening at 40/1 in February with only two weeks of play. But the Bears have earned it. They're also 75/1 to win the NFC.

There's a semblance of respect for the Cowboys who opened 14/1 to win the Super Bowl and are now 20/1. Part of the respected number has to do with risk as they've been one of the more popular bets over the summer. The other part is that the complexion of the NFC has changed with Seattle and Green Bay not looking so dominant and the NFC East looking very winnable. Also, Romo is scheduled to return at mid-season. Dallas is 10/1 to win their first NFC Championship since 1995.