Sunday 9/14/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bonus Play Cincinnati Bengals over Atlanta @ 1:00 Eastern

The Bengals are at home this week after defeating the Ravens in Baltimore 23-16 as a 1-1/2 to 3-point underdog. Home standing Atlanta pulled out a 37-34 OT win in week #1 over favored New Orleans. Both units came into the season with strong possibilities of going into the playoffs. Although the Falcons finished last season 4-12 SU, they did suffer numerous injuries, while losing 5 games by four or less points. No doubt their fate could have gone another way. Hard charging Cincinnati did finish strong with a solid 11-6 SU mark losing a playoff game to San Diego 27-10.

The Bengals and Falcons opened at Cincinnati -5-½ on Sunday in Vegas, and the number has fluctuated all week between 5 and 5-1/2. The Bengals play their home opener looking to extend their 9 game win streak in Paul Brown’s crib. The injury report is not good, however, for Cincinnati as they have lost talented TE Tyler Eifert and A. J. Green is banged up. Green grabbed a 77-yard TD pass from QB Andy Dalton to decide the Baltimore affair. Check his status before game time. As far as the Falcons, week #1 had QB Matt Ryan throwing for 448 yards to help bringing his team back late in the game. In OT Matt Bryant booted a 52-yard FG to win the hotly contested affair. Overall the Falcons came up with 568 net yards of offense to achieve victory against the so-so defense of New Orleans.

We note, Atlanta has won the last three in this series. Cincinnati has not defeated the Falcons going all the way back to 1996. Still, Cincinnati swept their home games 8-0 in 2013 by an average of 18.7 points per game. If you pull out the Jets smash of 49-9, the Bengals still accrued a 12.6 point per game advantage…OUTSTANDING! In the regular season the Bengals 5-of-6 ATS, and show at 7-0-1 ATS as a home chalk. Plus, they roll with an 8-1-2 ATS mark vs. the NFC. Atlanta plays Sunday 1-5 ATS in their first road game, and 1-4 ATS before taking on Tampa Bay. We close with the visitor 1-4 ATS vs. the AFC. Our call is Cincinnati 34-27.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

NY Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

Bonus Play NY Jets

Many will be flocking to the Packers in this game after they lost on opening night in Seattle by 20 points. A bounceback opportunity is certainly present as they are back home and now facing a team that is not expected to do much this season but the linesmakers have certainly taken all of this into consideration based on the line that Green Bay is putting down here. And the Packers have not exactly been a great team coming off big losses as they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 14 points. The Jets had no issues with Oakland last week although the score appeared like it did. The Raiders scored a late touchdown to make the score look more respectable but New York outgained Oakland by 244 yards to it clearly had the upper hand all day. Granted, it was only the Raiders but the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 158 total yards which was the lowest amount yielded by any team in Week One. The Jets will no doubt have a much tougher time in stopping the Green Bay offense but they should be in good shape to at least slow it down enough to keep it close. New York is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games when getting nine or more points and under head coach Rex Ryan, it is 8-1 ATS in nine games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game. The Packers fall into a negative situation as well as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1983. Play (273) New York Jets

 

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Sheep
under 43 Miami/Buf. $1000
Patriots -3 $1000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -3

I am big on the Houston Texans (1-0) to bounce back this season. They were a Super Bowl contender in 2011 and 2012 and won playoff games both seasons. They came into last year as a Super Bowl contender as well, but had everything possible go against them and were nowhere near as bad as their 2-14 record would indicate. I actually have the Texans winning the AFC South this year, which is how good I believe they can be.

After finishing 1st in the league in total defense in 2012, the Texans finished 7th in that category last year in spite of their 2-14 record. I look for them to contend for the top spot in total defense again in 2014. J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league, Brian Cushing is back healthy, and they have two shutdown corners on the outside. Jadeveon Clowney will be a beast when he's returns from a brief injury.

The Texans are off to a good start by limiting the Washington Redskins to just six points in a 17-6 victory in Week 1. All they gave up were short passes by Robert Griffin III, whose average throw sailed just 4.4 yards down the field. They limited the big plays against a good offense. Now, the Texans will be up against one of the worst offenses in the league in the Oakland Raiders.

Indeed, the Raiders were atrocious on this side of the ball against the Jets. This game was nowhere near as close as the 14-19 final would indicate as the Raiders got a late touchdown in garbage time to make it appear close. The fact of the matter is that this team was outgained by a whopping 244 total yards in the loss. The offense mustered up just 158 total yards, while the defense surrendered 402, including 212 on the ground.

I wasn't completely impressed with Houston's offense against Washington, but it wasn't ask to do too much as its defense was dominating. It was nice to see Arian Foster healthy as he rushed for 103 yards to help put the game away. If the Raiders gave up 212 to the Jets last week, I believe Foster could be in for one of the best games of his career on the ground Sunday.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) – off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are 23-39 ATS in their last 49 games as a home underdog. Oakland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win. Bet the Texans Sunday.

 

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Hondo 10 unit 49ers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday's Free NFL Pick ---Denver Broncos -11.5---

I know the Chiefs looked bad last week at home against the Titans, but I just don't feel like people realize how bad this Kansas City team is. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the league and defensively they have taken a big step back, especially now that they lost star middle linebacker Derrick Johnson for the rest of the season. Their corners are awful and there's just no way they are going to slow down Peyton Manning and the Broncos high-powered passing attack.

I look for Denver to jump all over Kansas City early and keep adding to their lead. The Chiefs are not a team to play from behind, especially with that pitiful offensive line. Alex Smith has had absolutely no time to throw the ball and it's not going to get any better when they are playing from behind and the Broncos defensive front can come after Smith knowing the Chiefs have to throw the ball. I look for this to be the biggest blowout of the weekend, as I see Denver winning here by 20+ points without much trouble.

Key Trends - Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Denver is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 against the AFC West and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread last time out.

System - Home favorites who outscored opponents by 4+ points/game the previous season after a game where they scored 30+ points are 37-11 (77%) ATS since 1983. BET THE BRONCOS -11.5!

 

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Anyone have Demarco?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

NY Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

Bonus Play Green Bay Packers -8

The Key: Motivated by an ugly loss in their opener and having had three extra days to prepare, the Packers will bounce back strong Sunday against the Jets. New York was able to defeat Oakland in its opener, but it takes a big step up in competition here. And, the Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. Green Bay is on a 20-8 ATS run versus teams with winning records, and it is 18-8 ATS under coach McCarthy as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14.0 points. It has won by an average score of 32.6 to 15.6 in these 26 games. With a pair of division road games on deck, the Packers know how important it is to take care of business here. Lay the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers

Free 5* San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are currently installed as 6 point home dogs facing the Seattle Seahawks. This is simply a vastly inflated price and I highly encourage a 5* wager on the Chargers. Seattle is the public bettor favorite, especially doming off their big win over the Packers last Thursday. However, the focus with Seattle maybe returning home to host the Denver Broncos in Week 3. This is by definition a 'middle game' for Seattle and one that they could easily lose. San Diego is an excellent team and should never be home dogs of 6 points based on the opponents they face.

Supporting this 5* graded play is a great system that has gone 81-41 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (SEATTLE) after scoring 30 points or more last game and are now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 41% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points and this under scores by strong belief that this will be an upset result. Take the San Diego Chargers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

NY Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

Bonus Play Green Bay -7.5

Green Bay is off a road loss at Seattle and now plays against a second year QB (Geno Smith) at home. The Packers have been off for 10 days while the Jets are off a home win vs. the Raiders. I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well and for Green Bay to win 30-20.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

Chip's FREE NFL Winner Carolina Panthers

Panthers (+) over Lions- Okay, we all saw the Lions destroy the New York Giants on Monday night as they allowed only 53 rushing yards while showing an explosive offense. Carolina managed to defeat everybody's darling last week as the 'public' and wiseguys alike took Tampa Bay as the Panthers pounded out a 20-14 win. Carolina has won their last six at home and with the return of Cam Newtown their offense should show a little more life. This is not a system play of any kind as most of the trends lean against the Panthers. Carolina's defense is much better then New York's and that the difference today. Take PANTHERS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts

Bonus Play Over 54

Both teams have to 5 offenses and middle of the pack defenses. Andrew Luck should be able to shred this Eagles defense apart with Wayne and Hilton. The Eagles can score in a hurry as they put up 34 points in a half. Look for this game to be an offensive battle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers

Sunday MLB Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports Take #980 Texas Rangers over Atlanta Braves (Sunday, 3:05pm EST)

If someone told you before the season that the Texas Rangers would lose 100 games this season, you probably would have had them go for a mental evaluation. But it doesn’t seem so crazy now as they’re on pace for 100+ losses in 2014 with just a couple of weeks remaining. But I fully expect this Rangers team to bounce back in 2015, and that’s because no team was hit harder by injuries than they have been in a long, long time. They’ve used over 60 players on their big league roster, setting a major league record for one season. They’re still missing over half of their everyday lineup and a substantial portion of their pitching staff. But this team is at its lowest point at 55-92, and I think we can get some value on them by buying low these final two weeks. They wrap up a series with the Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon. The Braves have had a frustrating year as well and have been in a tailspin throughout the second half of the season. Atlanta is 4-8 over their last 12 games and playing their worst baseball of the entire season right now. This is the final game of a nine-game road trip, so the team can’t be expected to be as sharp as usual. The pitching matchup favors Atlanta with Mike Minor facing off against Colby Lewis, but the gap isn’t as big as it seems. Lewis has picked up his game over the last couple of weeks and has pitched deep into his last three outings. He threw 23 innings in those starts and has a 16-2 K/BB ratio during that stretch. Minor has had a disappointing season with a 4.58 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 23 starts. He’s looked a little bit better of late too, but it’s possible that Minor’s mechanics are awry. He doesn’t look as comfortable on the hill and has given up lots of big innings. The Rangers have hit southpaws well this season, so they have a good opportunity here. We’ll take the Rangers as home underdogs here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns

NFL Bonus Play New Orleans -6.5

Bad news for Cleveland here. The Saints defense played horrible last week and expect Ryan to have his boys geared up for this one, a MUST WIN early in the Season. The Browns have no answer for Graham at tight end here and a bevy of receivers that the Browns cannot cover. While the Steelers who looked horrible on Thursday night by the way, let the Browns score at will in the second half last week, I doubt the Saints allow that to happen and QB Hoyer has limited weapons at WR to trade punches on the scoreboard if they fall behind. I will side with a focused and determined Drew Brees and company to light up Cleveland here and will lay the 6.5 on the road, which is rare for me in the NFL.

Free Pro Pick on New Orleans - This is a LVH Contest pick of Mine!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers

Sunday MLB Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports Take #980 Texas Rangers over Atlanta Braves (Sunday, 3:05pm EST)

If someone told you before the season that the Texas Rangers would lose 100 games this season, you probably would have had them go for a mental evaluation. But it doesn’t seem so crazy now as they’re on pace for 100+ losses in 2014 with just a couple of weeks remaining. But I fully expect this Rangers team to bounce back in 2015, and that’s because no team was hit harder by injuries than they have been in a long, long time. They’ve used over 60 players on their big league roster, setting a major league record for one season. They’re still missing over half of their everyday lineup and a substantial portion of their pitching staff. But this team is at its lowest point at 55-92, and I think we can get some value on them by buying low these final two weeks. They wrap up a series with the Atlanta Braves on Sunday afternoon. The Braves have had a frustrating year as well and have been in a tailspin throughout the second half of the season. Atlanta is 4-8 over their last 12 games and playing their worst baseball of the entire season right now. This is the final game of a nine-game road trip, so the team can’t be expected to be as sharp as usual. The pitching matchup favors Atlanta with Mike Minor facing off against Colby Lewis, but the gap isn’t as big as it seems. Lewis has picked up his game over the last couple of weeks and has pitched deep into his last three outings. He threw 23 innings in those starts and has a 16-2 K/BB ratio during that stretch. Minor has had a disappointing season with a 4.58 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 23 starts. He’s looked a little bit better of late too, but it’s possible that Minor’s mechanics are awry. He doesn’t look as comfortable on the hill and has given up lots of big innings. The Rangers have hit southpaws well this season, so they have a good opportunity here. We’ll take the Rangers as home underdogs here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ross Benjamin

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Bonus Play Buffalo +1.0

This is one of these situations where emotion will become a huge factor. The Bills will be playing in their home opener, are coming off an exciting overtime win at Chicago last week as a 6.5-point underdog, and are playing a division rival. That's not all, local businessman Terry Pegula reached a tentative deal pending approval by NFL owners to purchase the team on Tuesday for a reported 1.4 billion dollars, and assured the fan base that the Bills are in Buffalo to stay. Then a little more than a week ago a Bills iconic figure Jim Kelly was pronounced cancer free after battling the disease over the past 6 months. The atmosphere will be electric, the crowd raucous, and the team enters with confidence. Since 10/9/2011 the Bills are 5-0 SU&ATS as a home pick or underdog of 4.0 or less, and their average margin of victory was 12.0 points in those contests.

The Dolphins will be depleted at linebacker with 2-starters sidelined by injury. That's not good news for Miami backers considering they will be facing an opponent that rushed for 193-yards last week, and was #4 overall in rushing offense in 2013. They will also be facing a Bills defense that absolutely dominated them in their 2-meetings last season, and may be even better in 2014.

Any division home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, that's coming off a non-division straight up win as an away underdog of 11.0 or less, versus an opponent coming off a win, has gone 13-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home team won those 13-games by an average of 10.2 points per contest. Play on the Buffalo Bills as a NFL free selection.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers

Free Pick on Seattle Seahawks -

I know Seattle isn’t as strong on the road as they are at home, but I think the Seahawks have a big schedule advantage in this matchup. Seattle will have had 9 full days to prepare for the Chargers due to playing their opener last Thursday. San Diego on the other hand will have just 5 days to get ready for defending champs. I won’t be looking to lay the points on the Seahawks a lot on the road this year, but I think this is one spot where they are actually showing some decent value.

The Seahawks are perceived as a bad road team and it wasn’t that long ago that claim was true. However, Seattle went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS away from home in 2013. It’s worth noting that Seattle is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing their last game at home.

One of the big reasons that I don't mind laying the points is Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Diego's offense. The Chargers are of a more pass-first team that likes to set up the run with the pass. As you already know, trying to beat Seattle through the air is recipe for disaster. You have to be able to run the ball to move the chains and I just don't think the Chargers will be able to do that. San Diego only managed 52 rushing yards on 24 attempts against Arizona. That's barely over 2.0 yards/carry.

Another key here is that Seattle is a much better offensive team than they get credit for. They have one of the most physical running backs in the game in Marshawn Lynch and an emerging star at quarterback in Russell Wilson. They also have a healthy Percy Harvin at wide receiver and he’s a weapon they didn’t have for most of last year. Harvin caught 7 passes for 59 yards and rushed 4 times for 41 yards against Green Bay. Take the Seahawks!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs

Edges - Chiefs: 11-0 ATS dogs off SU DD loss; and coach Andy Reid 19-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU favorites loss in which his team lost to the spread by 8 or more points. Broncos: 0-7 ATS home division games versus opponent off SU DD no-division loss; and 2-8 ATS favorites in 2nd game of season. With Denver looking dead ahead to a Super Bowl rematch next week against Seattle, we recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City, we recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings

5* FREE NFL Play New England Patriots -5

New England lost in week 1 and it wasn’t pretty in the second half as they got shutout and frittered the game away. This week they hit the road again, up to Minnesota, to face a Vikings team that is not nearly as good as their win over St. Louis made them look.

I am expecting the combo of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to be in full avengers mode. The number is coming down on this one and I can’t understand why unless people are setting up for a big play. Is New England really going to start 0-2.

Play on the Pats -5. Good Luck, Razor Ray.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Stoffo

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

3 Unit Bonus Play Under 40 -110

Houston at Oakland With the Raiders only gaining 158 yards in their game against the Jets, and the Texans also having problems offensively in their win against the Redskins - Sure makes for a lower scoring game here and a solid release on the under in this spot today. Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games overall. Under is 10-2 in Texans last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under this posted total the play here. Under is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games in September. Under is 9-2-1 in Raiders last 12 home games. Plus the early sharp money has come in on the under during the week. Under this posted total the play here.