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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Smoke and mirrors: NFL bettors shouldn't overract to these Week 1 results
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

One of the most important rules professional bettors live by is to never overreact to what takes place in Week 1 of the NFL season.

This is easier said than done, as football fans spend the summer months foaming at the mouth in anticipation of some real live game action. Therefore, when the first sixty minutes of a 17-week schedule comes to a conclusion, we tend to get overly excited by the big performances and unnecessarily critical of the poor showings.

Here’s a look at three teams that may be causing bettors and fans alike to overreact, based on what transpired this past weekend.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5 at Cincinnati)

There’s no bigger showdown on the schedule for the Atlanta Falcons than a home date with division rival New Orleans and it took a flawless effort from quarterback Matt Ryan (31/43, 448 yards, 3 TDs), an overtime fumble committed by Saints wide receiver Marques Colston and two 50-plus yard field goals from Matt Bryant for Atlanta to escape with a 37-34 victory last Sunday.

The Falcons were expected to bounce back from last season’s dismal 4-12 campaign, but this organization shouldn’t be viewed as the 13-3 squad that advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game in 2012.

Don’t buy into any of the hype just yet and be sure to take note that the Falcons have already been bet from +4 to +5.5 for the team’s Week 2 non-conference matchup in Cincinnati.

Green Bay Packers (-9.5 vs. N.Y. Jets)

It doesn’t matter if it’s Joe Montana and Jerry Rice or the ’85 Bears, no team is going to look good in a primetime road showdown with the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

In two primetime home contests last season, the Seahawks hammered the San Francisco 49ers 29-3 and trashed the New Orleans Saints 34-7, -and those were two damn good football teams.

Green Bay got the royal treatment from the defending champs in Week 1, but the Packers are still the favorites to win the NFC North and are currently listed at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

This franchise is far better than what we saw last Thursday night, as evidenced by a Week 2 line move from -8 to as high as -9.5 for Sunday’s home date against the New York Jets.

Detroit Lions (+2.5 at Carolina)

If a team is opening up the season at home on a Monday night, they’re guaranteed to benefit from an electric atmosphere that not only helps fuel the adrenaline coursing through the veins of its players, but also aids in preventing the opposition from finding a consistent rhythm.

Case in point: the Detroit Lions, who looked nothing like a franchise that has recorded just one winning season since 2001 in the team’s 35-14 dismantling of the New York Giants.

Tom Coughlin’s crew was lousy in all three phases of the game and made the Lions look like one of the most well-oiled machines in all of professional football. New head coach Jim Caldwell may have something cooking in Detroit, but it will take more than just a good effort against a lousy team for sharp bettors to buy into the hype.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 2 line moves
By ANDREW AVERY

Week 1 is in the books and it's probably a week of wagering that bettors would like to forget.

Underdogs had a huge week (11-5 against the spread) and the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills knocked off three of the more popular plays of the week in the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots and Chicago Bears respectively, making it a big pay day for the books.

But the past is the past and it's time to welcome a new day of wagers in the National Football League. We talk to Michael Stewart, oddsmaker , about the late line moves heading into kickoff Sunday:

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings - Open: +3, Move: +6, Move: +6.5

With the Adrian Peterson news breaking and creating yet another nightmare for the NFL, this is the game that has seen some wild line movement.

Sportsbooks opened with the Vikes being offered as 3-point home dogs, but moved to +3.5 when Peterson's status was moved to questionable Friday. Later in the evening, as news leaked that AP would be ruled out for the game, books adjusted +6 and have largely been taking Pats money since.

"With that news we have seen a run of Patriot action pour in as the moneyline and spread are seeing 79 percent and 73 percent respectively, with the 48 point total greeting 79 percent of the action on the Over," Stewart.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - Open: Bills -1, Move: Pick

Who would have thought that a Week 2 meeting between the Dolphins and Bills could be so important? But that's where we are with the AFC East in 2014. Both are coming off big upset victories in Week 1 but it's the Dolphins that travel north and will play the role of road team in this matchup.

Furthermore, the 42.5 total is one of the lowest on the board, but betters are still supporting a low-scoring game. For good reason too as the previous two meetings in Buffalo have both cashed for Under bettors.

"We have this game at a pick'em with the Dolphins getting 64 percent of the action," Stewart says. "While the Bills are getting 72 percent of the action on the moneyline and the 42.5 point total is getting 62 percent of the action on the under."

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Open: -3.5, Move: -4, Move: -6

If we gleaned anything from Week 1, it's that the Rams are terrible. St. Louis was thoroughly trounced by a spirited Vikings team in front of their own fans.

They'll be in tough here as the Buccaneers will look to bounce back from an ultimately disappointing effort in their own right versus the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 and bettors foresee the Bucs doing just that Sunday.

"Our bettors are expecting the Bucs to bounce back after a lackluster Week 1 effort as they are getting 81 percent and 61 percent of the action on the money and spread respectively," Stewart says.

As for the total, the 37.5 points being offered are indeed the lowest on the board and though there is "good two-way action", Stewart says that 56 percent of action is siding with the Over.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants - Open: -1, Move: Pick, Move: +1, Move: +2.5

These two teams took the stage on Monday Night Football with the Cardinals scraping out a win over the San Diego Chargers and the Giants looking hopeless in a 35-14 beatdown courtesy of the Detroit Lions.

Books opened this one anywhere from a Pick to Giants -2.5 depending on where you shop, but last week's performances are fresh in bettors' minds as it's the Cards that are seeing the bulk of action here.

"It's all Cards action on this one with 65 percent and 74 percent of the action on the Cards for the money and side, while the 42.5 point total is seeing mostly under money with 76 percent of the action," Stewart told us.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers - Open: -8

Another team that got stomped in Week 1 was the Packers, who took it on the chin in a 36-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.

Bettors like them to regroup and put a notch in the win column as they are being backed in fairly convincing numbers.

"Everyone expects the packers to bounce back at home as the action has been pouring in in them with 94 percent and 70 percent on the money and side respectively," Stewart says. "The 46 point total is getting 69 percent of the action."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 37)

Rams’ penalty problems vs. Bucs’ discipline

Week 1 stats should be kept at an arm’s length when it comes to capping your Week 2 wagers but it’s hard to ignore the 121 penalty yards the Rams racked up on 13 infractions in their loss to Minnesota – the most in Week 1.

The offense was the biggest culprit, getting whistled for three false starts, two holds, and two offensive pass interference calls. Sprinkle in a roughing the kicker and roughing the passer, a 15-yard face mask and a flag for taunting, and it’s easy to see why the Vikings were able to put up 34 points with that mediocre offense.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was an angel in Week 1. The Buccaneers summoned only three flags – tied for the fewest in Week 1 – two for encroachment and one on a false start. This is a huge change in attitude from last season when the Bucs ranked third in penalties (71 yards per game), just ahead of the Rams (63.06).

New coach Lovie Smith is already making his mark on Tampa Bay. The -5.5 points may seem like a lot for this Bucs offense to handle, but when the opposition is spotting you first downs left and right, you’ll get to the end zone sooner than later.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-6, 43)

Jaguars’ special teams vs. Redskins’ not-so special teams

There aren’t many things the Jaguars can hang their hat on. An improved defense that got after Eagles QB Nick Foles is one. The other is an underrated group on special teams.

Last season, Jacksonville ranked third overall in average yards per kick return (25.9) and was the best in the NFL at limiting opposing returners, giving up 20.4 yards against per return. In Week 1, Jordan Todman totaled 36 yards on two kick returns and punter Bryan Anger did a good job pinning Philadelphia deep in their own end.

Washington’s special team issues were in full effect in Week 1. The Redskins had a punt blocked – which Houston returned for six points – and had an extra point blocked as well. The 2013 squad allowed foes to average 16.8 yards per punt return – easily worst in the NFL – and watched three punts come back for scores.

“We kind of opened Pandora’s box now,” Redskins special teams captain Adam Hayward told the Washington Times. “Now for the rest of the season, everyone’s going to try to come after us. So, that’s something we’re going to have to fix immediately, because I don’t want to be like last year.”

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)

Lions’ troubles with TEs vs. Panthers’ TE Greg Olsen

The Lions defense looked solid in a Week 1 thumping of the Giants. But was Detroit playing that good or was New York just that bad? The one area the Giants were able to consistently beat the Lions is at tight end, with Eli Manning finding TE Larry Donnell for 56 yards and a TD on five catches - some key grabs from the big man in the middle.

This is nothing new to Detroit’s stop unit, which has struggled against opposing tight ends going back to last year. During the team’s disastrous four-game skid to end the schedule, the Lions gave up a total of 179 yards on 18 catches by tight ends – an average of 9.94 yards per grab (pretty much a first down per completion). Many of those receptions led to third-down conversions.

Enter a former NFC North foe (with Chicago) in Panthers TE Greg Olsen, who is primed for a breakout year after reeling in eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown in Carolina’s upset win over Tampa Bay. Olsen, who served as a great safety net for fill-in QB Derek Anderson last Sunday, will still get plenty of touches with Cam Newton coming back.

The Panthers lost their three top WRs from last season and with Detroit’s front seven bringing the heat and not giving an injured Newton much time to look downfield, Olsen is not only a huge X-factor in Week 2 but could be the fantasy football sleeper of Sunday for those struggling with their “start em, sit em’s”.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 48.5)

Bears’ run game vs. Niners’ run defense

The Niners didn’t play all that well in Week 1. Yeah, they smoked the Cowboys 28-17 on the scoreboard but benefited from three Romo INTs and a fumble from DeMarco Murray on the opening drive of the game. Dallas seems to spot every opponent three or four turnovers.

The biggest blemish coming out of the opener were the 118 rushing yards Murray posted – his 5.4 yards per carry were the most allowed by San Francisco since 2009 (minimum 20 carries), according to SFGate.com. It’s a glaring defensive stat with stud linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman in civies.

The 49ers face a who’s who of fantasy first-rounders in the coming weeks, starting with Bears versatile playmaker Matt Forte Sunday night. After Forte, San Fran has to slow down Eagles RB LeSean McCoy and Chiefs bruiser Jamaal Charles.

Forte had 169 combined yards (running and receiving) in the upset loss to the Bills Sunday, picking up 82 yards on 17 carries and 87 yards on eight catches. Bears coach Marc Trestman is an offensive mastermind and will attack any weakness in the Niners’ defense. So, you could see him test San Francisco’s depth with an up-tempo attack featuring plenty of No. 22.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 2's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

We enjoyed a nice 3-0-1 NFL props card last week. A solid start to the season, but there's obviously still room for improvement. Let's shoot for the sweep with four more prop tickets for Sunday’s Week 2 action.

Most passing yards

Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins) vs. E.J. Manuel (Buffalo Bills)

The Miami offense turned it on in the second half after sputtering early against the Patriots last week, and the general consensus is that it will have little trouble keeping it rolling against the Bills. I’m not so sure.

Yes, the Dolphins offensive line was able to keep Ryan Tannehill upright for much of last Sunday’s game - a welcome change from a year ago. Can they turn in a repeat performance? Maybe, but I believe the Bills offense has a little more upside in this spot.

E.J. Manuel will make some questionable decisions from time to time, but he showed plenty of poise in a hostile environment against the Bears last week, and should have plenty of confidence heading into this one. This matchup will be close, but I believe the value lies with Manuel and his upgraded receiving corps.

Take: Manuel

Most pass receptions

Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) vs. A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)

The Falcons offense hummed against the Saints last Sunday, ultimately prevailing in come-from-behind fashion on the strength of a monster day from QB Matt Ryan.

Of course, Julio Jones played a significant role in that victory. He’s healthy and poised to lead this offense.

This pick essentially comes down to which secondary I have more faith in, and that’s the Bengals. Cincinnati’s No. 1 concern will be keeping Jones in check. While the same goes for the Falcons against A.J. Green, I’m not sold on them being able to limit his production.

Take: Green

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) vs. Victor Cruz (New York Giants)

Victor Cruz spoke out this week, suggesting that Eli Manning needs to take to the air more often in this week’s matchup with Arizona. That’s only common sense after the offense was stagnant against the Lions in Monday’s season opener.

I’m just not convinced Cruz will find any open field against an outstanding Cardinals secondary.

Larry Fitzgerald had a light workload Monday night as well, but that was largely a result of an underrated Chargers secondary locking him down. While the Giants secondary isn’t a weakness by any means, it’s not a unit capable of containing Fitzgerald for four quarters.

Take: Fitzgerald

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends show Vikings a solid play ATS
Stephen Campbell

The Minnesota Vikings have been a nice play for bettors betting against the spread, going 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.

The Adrian Peterson-less Vikes host the New England Patriots at TCF Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon.

The Pats are currently 6-point faves with a total of 48.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Titans red-hot on the Over in Tennessee
Stephen Campbell

The Tennessee Titans have treated their hometown fans to some high-scoring games as of late.

The Over is a sizzling 6-1 in the Titans' last seven games in Nashville. Tennessee hosts Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The Titans are currently 3.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 49.5 for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Favorites cashing in between Bills-Dolphins
Stephen Campbell

The favorite has been living up to its billing in recent matchups between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

Underdogs have gone just 1-5 against the faves in the last six meetings between the AFC East rivals. The Bills are currently 1-point home faves with a total of 42.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Suh's friends say Cam Newton in trouble Sunday
Andrew Avery

In the wake of Cam Newton's press conference where he repeatedly referred to Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh as "Donkey Kong Suh", some old friends of Suh's believe Cam might be in trouble.

Three former high school teammates of the Lions' lineman spoke anonymously with Aaron Fentress and have no doubt that that Suh will come out extra angry Sunday.

The Panthers are currently 2.5-point home favorites for the game and oddsmakers have put a total of 44 on the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Falcons a boon for Over bettors in September
Stephen Campbell

Trends are showing Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have had no problem putting plenty of points on the board in the month of September.

The Over is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four September games. After last week's 37-34 shootout victory over the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons face off against the Cincinnati Bengals in Ohio Sunday.

Cincy is presently -5.5 home faves with an O/U of 48.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl victors struggle in first road game
Andrew Avery

If trends are any indicator, the Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks are not going to be cashing tickets for their backers in their first road game as defending Champs.

Super Bowl winners are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road openers and are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 seasons. If not for the New York Giants covering in 2012 at the Carolina Panthers and 2008 at the St. Louis Rams, it would be a clean 0-9 ATS since 2004 when the New England Patriots covered as 7.5-point faves at the Arizona Cardinals.

Last season, the Baltimore Ravens were defeated soundly by the Denver Broncos 49-27 and failed to cover as +7.5 road dogs in that game.

The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks travel south to visit the San Diego Chargers for their first road test of the season in Week 2. The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Chargers as 5.5-point home dogs for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 2
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. In Week 1, bettors would've gone 1-2 if they followed the sharp plays with the Eagles-Jaguars outcome causing the professionals to turn up losers.

Below are some games that I have my eye on for Week 2!

Minnesota +3 – No big shocks here that the public is all over the Patriots. After all, New England was beaten last week on the road, and for the first time in his career, quarterback Tom Brady is in last place in the AFC East by himself. On top of that, the Pats have only played four games when under .500 in the last 11 years, and they won and covered all four of those games. Minnesota looked great last week, albeit against St. Louis, but we have a feeling that maybe this team is better than we originally gave it credit for. If that turns out to be the case on Sunday, there could be a sinking feeling in Beantown, as the Patriots could legitimately slip to 0-2 after two weeks of the season.

Opening Line: Minnesota +3
Current Line: Minnesota +3
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on New England

Cleveland +6 – The sharpest play on the board in Week 2. The Browns are playing their opening game at FirstEnergy Stadium this year, and we really aren't all that sure why they are such massive underdogs in this game. New Orleans has had a history of playing poorly on the road, and they have gone 3-5 in each of the last two seasons away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints started off last week with a loss on the road in Atlanta, and this is probably a tougher atmosphere to be playing in because it isn't inside of a dome. Mother Nature could play a role here, and if she does, it certainly suits the Browns more than the Saints. The big question: Are the real Browns the ones we saw in the first-half against the Steelers last week or the ones who played in the second-half? That's the big problem that we have to try to work out.

Opening Line: Cleveland +6
Current Line: Cleveland +6
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New Orleans

San Diego +5.5 – Again, no real surprises here. The Seahawks looked like the most dominating team in the NFL when they beat the snot out of the Packers last week on the opening night of the season. However, we still think they have some holes that could be exploited. The Chargers ended up losing on Monday Night Football and have to play on a short week, which isn't going to help matters any, but they have a history of pulling off upsets like this. That's a lot of points to be giving a team that historically will stay close to anyone in the NFL when stuck in that ridiculous underdog role.

Opening Line: San Diego +5.5
Current Line: San Diego +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Seattle

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Steelers (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1) -- Lot of distractions for Ravens in short week with Ray Rice debacle; they lost at home to Bengals last week, allowing 77-yard bomb with 4:58 left after rallying back from down 15-0 at half to take lead. Ravens won four of last six games in this series, with last five series games decided by 3 points or less. Only once in Steelers' last six visits here was game deicded by more than four points. Pitt blew 27-3 halftime lead at home last week, won 30-27 late despite Browns gaining 387 yards, 183 on ground. Steelers lost last three road openers, all by 10+ points- they covered once in last seven road openers, with five of the seven games staying under the total.

Lions (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0) -- Newton is expected back at QB after Anderson won season opener last week. Carolina is 2-8 in last ten home openers, 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17; they're 9-4-1 as home favorites under Rivera. Panthers won four of six series games, three of four here. Since 1990, Detroit is 1-8 vs spread in road openers that weren't in Week 1. Both teams opened with wins; Lions are on a short week after outgaining Giants 417-197 Monday night. Of 29 plays of 20+ yards last week that came on 3rd down, Detroit had four of them. Johnson had 164 receiving yards with two TDs. Lions were 11-15-2 as road underdog under Schwartz; they're 3-10 in last 13 road openers.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1) --- Jaguars led 17-0 at half in Philly last week, with TD drives of 44-21 yards after Eagle turnovers, but they couldn't even cover as an 11-point dog. Jags are 4-5 as road dogs under Bradley, 4-16 in last 20 games against NFC teams. Since '11, they're 8-23-1 as single digit underdogs. Since '88, Redskins are 1-7 vs spread in home openers that weren't in Week 1; Washington won four of five games vs Jags, winning last two in OT; Jax is 0-2 here, but last visit was in '06. Skins scored first on 46-yard drive in Houston last week, but PAT was blocked and they didn't score again; since '06, they're 9-19-1 as home favorites. Washington lost its last two home openers, allowing 71 points.

Cowboys (0-1) @ Titans (1-0) -- Tennessee was bet down from 100-1 to 60-1 to win Super Bowl after 26-10 win at Arrowhead last week, when they outgained KC by 160 yards. Titans won three of last four home openers, but are 3-6-1 vs spread in last 10 HOs when favored. Cowboys are 13-8 as road underdogs, 10-6 vs AFC under Garrett; they're 6-1 in last seven road openers, with dogs covering last four- they split two visits to Nashville. Romo threw three 1st half picks in 28-17 home loss to 49ers last week; Niners had defensive TD and a 2-yard TD drive. Last nine years, Titans are 24-12-1 vs spread vs NFC teams- they're 8-11-1 in last 20 games as a home favorite.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Giants (0-1) -- Arizona covered its last six road openers, going 4-2 SU; they pulled out 18-17 home win late Monday night, are 10-5-1 vs spread on road last two years. Redbirds were 6-1 vs number LY in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional road games. Giants are 7-3 in last ten series games, but Arizona won last visit here, in '09. Big Blue got outgained 417-197 in Detroit Monday night; they lost last two home openers. Over is 8-0-1 in Week 2 Giant games the last nine years. Over last eight years, Gianrs are 16-23-1 vs spread at home. Arizona is 12-9-1 vs spread in game following its last 22 wins. Giants are still struggling with new offense; will home crowd help them?

Patriots (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0) -- Over last decade, New England is 25-9 vs spread in game following a loss; they're 5-7 in games vs NFC teams last three years. Pats got shut out 23-0 in second half of 33-20 loss in Miami last week; thery won last three series games, by 7-24-10 points; they've split four visits here. Vikings were 0-6 vs spread in last six Metrodome openers, with all games decided by 4 or less points; they're playing outdoors for two years, as new stadium is built. Vikes won opener 34-6 last week, running for 186 yards as WR Patterson proves to be threat running, catching ball. Remember that Viking QB Cassel was Brady's backup from 2005-08, playing whole season in '08 after Brady got hurt early in opener.

Dolphins (1-0) @ Bills (1-0) -- Buffalo won three of last four series games, winning 19-14/19-0 in last two played here; Miami lost seven of last nine visits here overall. Dolphins outscored Pats 23-0 in second half of impressive 33-20 home win last week; their two takeaways created short fields that saw Fish score on TD drives of 15-34 yards. Miami lost eight of last ten road openers (2-6-1 vs spread in last nine). 10 of their last 12 road openers stayed under the total. Bills won four of last six home openers, are 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points. Buffalo covered five of last six divisional home games; they covered six of eight at home in Marrone’s first year as HC.

Saints (0-1) @ Browns (0-1) -- New Orleans continues to struggle on road; they failed to cover last five tries as road favorite, are 8-9 vs spread in last 17 games on grass, but they covered 17 of last 23 vs AFC teams, are 14-6 in last 20 games that followed a loss. Cleveland rallied back from down 27-3 at half last week, lost at gun to Steelers, but they had good balance on offense, running for 183 yards, passing for 206. Browns are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home underdog- they won three of last four games with Saints, with visitor winning all four- they’re 12-17-3 vs spread vs NFC teams since ’06. Saints gave up 568 yards in Atlanta last week, but this opponent ain’t the Falcons.

Falcons (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0) -- Both teams off divisional wins last week. Cincinnati was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 13-27-2 the nine years before that; they hadn’t scored a TD last week until 77-yard bomb to Green with 4:58 left that saved them in Baltimore, after they blew 15-0 halftime lead. Bengals are 16-6-2 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC teams, 22-10 in game following last 32 wins. Falcons won last three series games by 27-2-7 points, with three of last four series totals 56+. Atlanta lost four of six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’06. Falcons are 15-9 vs spread in AFC games under Smith; they’re 21-16-1 vs spread in game after wins the last four years.

Rams (0-1) @ Bucs (0-1) -- Tampa Bay didn’t force turnover last week, losing 20-14 to Carolina backup QB Anderson; now Rams visit with backup Hill under center, after they got crushed 34-6 at home by Minnesota. St Louis lost its last 12 road openers; they’re 2-12 vs spread in last 14 road openers, but beat Bucs 28-13/23-13 last two years, with ’12 win here its first in last six visits to Tampa. Rams are 9-7 as road dogs under Fisher, 5-4 in non-division games. Bucs are 7-10-1 as home favorites last four years; Smith was 12-19-1 as home fave his last six years in Chicago. Rams’ DE Chris Long is out two months; he’ll miss first games of his NFL career during that time. Bucs are 11-20 vs spread in game following their last 31 losses.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Chargers (0-1) -- Bolts frittered away game in Arizona late Monday night, losing two fumbles and botching shotgun snap that took them out of FG range at key time late in game; they ran ball for only 52 yards, lost C Hardwick to injury (check status). Defending champ Seattle waxed Packers in home opener four nights earlier; they won six of last seven series games, with seven of last nine meetings decided by 3 or less points- they won last three visits here, but last one was in 2002. Seahawks are just 6-6 as road favorites under Carroll, but 5-2 in non-divisional games. San Diego won three of last four home openers, scoring 24+ points in last six; nine of their last 11 home openers went over total.

Houston (1-0) @ Oakland (0-1) -- Raiders' rookie QB Carr plays against team his brother once played for; his backup Schaub was Houston's QB this time last year. Texans were 0-3 as road favorites LY, after being 8-4-1 the three years before that; they blocked punt for TD last week, in game where Redskins outgained them by 56 yards. Oakland had only 25 rushing yards, was 3-12 on 3rd down in 19-14 loss at Swamp Stadium; not lot of NFL teams lose with +2 turnover ratio. Houston won three of four visits here; home team lost five of last seven series games. Oakland is 3-7 as home underdog under Allen, 2-8 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Houston won its last five road openers.

Jets (0-1) @ Packers (1-0) -- Green Bay drew short straw, having to play Seattle in last week; their reward was extra three days off after, but they lost RT for year, and their center is new player. Pack is Jets are 8-3 in seldom-played series, scoring total of 17 points in three losses. Jets are 11-14-1 as road dogs under Ryan; they lost last three road openers by 10-17-3 points, but covered 12 of last 17, with five of last seven staying under. Pack is 21-11 in last 32 games as home favorite; they won six of last seven home openers, scoring 34 ppg in last four; they're 4-2 in last six home openers that weren't in Week 1. Since '09, Green Bay is 15-8 vs spread in game afetr a loss- they play all three division rivals the next three weeks.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0) -- Thought #18 missed Welker last week, especially in second half, when they needed first downs to kill clock. With new agreement on a drug program, Welker is now eligible to play, though he hasn't practiced. KC was -3 in turnovers in dismal loss to Tennessee in home opener, after being +18 LY, -24 in '12; they lost two players to Achilles injuries, are banged up on OL- they ran ball for only 67 yards last week. Over last decade, Chiefs are 15-5 as double digit dog 12-7 as divisional road dogs since '07. Denver won last four games by average score of 29-14, winning 38-13/27-17 in last two played here. Broncos are 20-11-1 in game after a win, under Fox- they're 12-4 in last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0) -- Chicago lost home opener to Bills in OT last week, bad loss; they lost last seven visits to Candlestick, with Chicago's last win here in Super Bowl year ('85), but this is first game in new stadium for 49ers, who led 28-3 at half last week in Dallas and coasted home. Besrs are 4-5 in last nine road openers; 10 of their last 13 stayed under total- they're 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road dog, 7-12-2 in game following last 21 losses. 49ers are 15-6-1 as home favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 in non-division games- they're 20-11-2 in game after last 33 wins. Bears were outrushed 193-86 by Buffalo last week, passed for 341 yards, but only two plays of 20+ yards, while allowing six.

Eagles (1-0) @ Colts (0-1) -- Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in Colts' non-divisonal home games under Pagano (5-5 as home favorite); Indy is 9-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss the last two years. Philly was down 17-0 at half to Jags last week, but stopped turning ball over and won/covered 34-17, getting defensive TD in last 2:00. Since '07, Iggles are 19-7 as road underdogs. Colts won four of last five series games; this is Philly's first visit here since '06. Eagles won last five road openers, scored 31+ points in five of last six- they're 9-4 as underdogs in road openers. Colts won eight of last 11 home openers, but covered one of last four as favorite in HO's; they covered five of last six Week 2 home openers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

DETROIT (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 53-82 ATS (-37.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 72-98 ATS (-35.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 136-172 ATS (-53.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 136-172 ATS (-53.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 105-137 ATS (-45.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (1 - 0) at SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 0) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-70 ATS (-40.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (0 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Monday, September 15

PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/15/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. TENNESSEE
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New England is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing New England
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NY GIANTS
Arizona is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CLEVELAND
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CAROLINA
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Carolina is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. WASHINGTON
Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games on the road
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN DIEGO
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
San Diego5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. TAMPA BAY
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NY JETS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Green Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 21 games

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Detroit at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 52-24 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points
Carolina: 7-0 UNDER when they commit 2 turnovers

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Miami: 6-17 ATS off an upset win over a division rival
Buffalo: 30-14 ATS after a win by 3 or less points

Jacksonville at Washington, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 19-8 ATS in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards
Washngton: 36-59 ATS as a home favorite

Dallas at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 48-70 ATS in road games after playing a game at home
Tennessee: 41-21 ATS in non-conference games

Arizona at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 13-4 UNDER in the first half of the season
NY Giants: 11-3 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

New England at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
New England: 10-1 ATS off a division game
Minnesota: 13-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New Orleans at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 6-16 ATS against AFC North division opponents
Cleveland: 10-2 UNDER against NFC South division opponents

Atlanta at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 31-12 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games

ST Louis at Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET
ST Louis: 0-6 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 56-36 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Seattle at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Seattle: 70-25 OVER when they gain 6 or more total yards per play
San Diego: 28-12 UNDER in home games when they commit 2 turnovers

Houston at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Houston: 38-22 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
Oakland: 13-28 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

NY Jets at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
NY Jets: 14-4 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
Green Bay: 101-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Kansas City at Denver, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 16-5 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
Denver: 21-10 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at San Francisco, 8:35 ET
Chicago: 5-18 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
San Francisco: 21-12 OVER in all games

Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Philadelphia: 40-16 ATS when they gain 400 to 450 total yards
Indianapolis: 13-49 ATS when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Orioles, Yankees clash

New York Yankees (76-71) at Baltimore (88-60)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Orioles -140 Yankees +130, Total 7.5

The Orioles, who have a stranglehold on the AL East, host the rival Yankees on Sunday night.

New York has been hampered by injuries to its pitching staff all season long, but surprisingly that has not been the biggest issue, as the offense has scored the 11th-fewest runs (571) entering the weekend. In their recent homestand, the Yankees were 5-4 as they won a series against both the Rays and Red Sox. Over their past two games against Tampa Bay they scored 13 runs and took the rubber match on Thursday by a 5-4 score after OF Chris Young (.218 BA) provided a walk-off, three-run homer. The newly acquired outfielder has given the team much-needed offense in the past three contests, going 6-for-11 with two homers, 7 RBI and four runs.

Baltimore has dominated the league this year and ranks in the top-10 in runs (638) while leading the league in homers (192) by a large margin. The O's have built up their AL East lead to double-digits after going 13-4 over their past 17 games, including a sweep of the Red Sox most recently. They went into Fenway Park and outscored Boston 18-7 over three games while capping off the series with a 10-6 victory. MLB home-run leader OF Nelson Cruz (.263 BA, 39 HR) has raised his batting average nine points over the past 10 games entering Friday, in which he is 15-for-41 (.366) with four home runs, 12 RBI and nine runs.

This contest’s pitching matchup will feature RHP Hiroki Kuroda (10-9, 3.91 ERA) for the Yankees as he attempts to outduel RHP Chris Tillman (12-5, 3.36 ERA) of the host team.

Going into this series, New York has played decent on the road with a record of 37-34 (.521), but will have a tough task ahead, as Baltimore is an excellent 43-28 (.606, 6th in MLB) at Camden Yards. The Yankees have not been able to avoid the steamroller that is the Orioles this year as they have lost 8-of-11 contests following Thursday’s action against their division rivals in 2014 while Baltimore holds a 28-25 (.528) edge in the matchup over the past three years.

The Orioles found out Friday morning that they will be without 1B Chris Davis (26 HR, 72 RBI) for the next 25 games (including postseason) after he tested positive for amphetamines.

Hiroki Kuroda has continued to be a consistent MLB starting pitcher despite being 39 years old, and has never posted an ERA over 4.00 in his seven-year career. His strikeout rate (6.3 K/9) has dropped in each of the past five seasons, but he has combated that with career-best control (1.8 BB/9). He has given the Yanks a quality start in seven of his past 10 outings, but did pitch very poorly against the Rays his last time out. He went a mere 3.1 frames while allowing four runs on nine hits with five strikeouts (zero walks) in a losing effort against them.

Overall against Baltimore, Kuroda is 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his career, but he has struck out a meager 5.5 batters per nine innings and allowed seven homers in 58.2 IP (1.07 HR/9). He has actually not given up a long ball to them in his three starts this year (19.1 IP) while going 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA. OF Alejandro De Aza (6-for-15, 1 HR, 2 RBI) has looked great in his career against the righty, while 3B Kelly Johnson (8-for-23, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI) has as well. On the other hand, OF Nelson Cruz and SS J.J. Hardy have combined to go 6-for-47 (.128) with seven strikeouts in the matchup.

New York’s bullpen enters Friday with a 23-24 record, but a strong 3.48 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while saving 43-of-60 (72%) games coming into this series. Closer David Robertson (2.77 ERA, 35 saves) is striking out batters at a career-high rate (13.7 K/9) and has allowed just one hit and zero walks with eight strikeouts in his past five appearances (5.1 IP).

Chris Tillman has been an important piece of this impressive Orioles ballclub in 2014 and is 37-15 since the start of the 2012 season while posting and ERA better than 3.75 each year. Batters can never seem to square him up as he is striking out a mere 6.4 batters per nine innings but have hit below .269 BABIP in each of the past three years (.261 in 2014). Tillman has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his outings since June 5 (18 starts) and has given the team 14 quality starts in that timeframe.

Baltimore has won nine straight games that Tillman has started, with the right-hander posting a 2.06 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 rate during this streak.

In his 13 career starts against New York, Tillman is 5-5 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, but has improved over his outings this year (3 starts) with a 2.18 ERA in 20.2 frames despite striking out only nine batters (3.9 K/9). SS Derek Jeter (8-for-23, 3 RBI) and 1B Mark Teixeira (8-for-16, 1 RBI) have done very well when facing Tillman in their careers while OF Ichiro Suzuki is 4-for-24 (.167) with two strikeouts in his time against the 26-year-old.

Coming into this series, the Orioles relievers are 26-19 (.578) with a 3.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and have successfully saved 49-of-68 (72%) games. Zach Britton (1.79 ERA, 34 saves) has been tremendous in the closer role while benefiting from batters hitting just .217 BABIP against him as he has forced a groundball 77.1% of the time with his nasty sinkerball.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rays dominating in Archer's road starts
Andrew Avery

The Tampa Bay Rays are a stellar 7-0 in pitcher Chris Archer's previous seven home starts heading into his appearance in Toronto against the Blue Jays Sunday.

On the season, the Rays' righty is statistically superior in his road starts earning a personal record of 5-3 with an ERA of 3.02 compared to 4-5 and 4.32 in his 14 home starts.

Those road wins for the Rays have at The New York Yankees twice, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays.

The Rays are currently +111 road dogs while the Jays are being offered at -120.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

We went north of the border to Woodbine on Saturday and we had one winner on top in four races, with Conquest Harlanate getting the job done in the Natalma (G2) as my top pick, returning $15.10. The $2 recommended exacta paid a hefty $59.80.

The filly earned an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) with the victory. My second choice Conquest Typhoon got the job done in the Summer (G2), returning $8.80. The colt gained an all-expenses paid trip to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

We have three graded takes on the card for Sunday at Woodbine including the $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1), a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). Wise Dan won the race the past two years on his way to winning the Mile and Horse of the Year honors.

While we are missing the star power of Wise Dan, it does make for a solid betting race. The race drew a field of 11, with Kaigun the 5-2 morning line favorite. The gelding won the Play the King (G2) in his last start and is perfect in two starts over the Woodbine turf.

The Woodbine Mile will be telecast live on Fox Sports 1 at 5:00 pm ET. The 90- minute telecast is the finale of the Jockey Club Tour on Fox series.

The supporting features on the card are the $200,000 Canadian (G2), a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and the $300,000 Northern Dancer Turf (G1).

We have a pair of state bred stakes on tap at Belmont Park this afternoon. The fourth race is the $125,000 Ashley T. Cole for three-year-olds and upward going nine furlongs on turf, and the $125,000 John Hettinger is at the same distance for the ladies.

Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $77,000N1X (1:05 ET)
2 Momentary Magic 3-1
3 Snowbell 2-1
1 Running Wild 6-1
4 Shayjolie 5-2

Analysis: Momentary Magic set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out at this level at the Spa. The winner of the race was La Madrina, who came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next start on Sept. 10 here. The filly has come up short at this level five times, but owns solid early and mid pace numbers and could prove tough to catch if able to shake loose early against this compact group.

Snowbell is our top pick's main pace threat. She went gate to wire at the Spa going seven furlongs in her fifth career start. She ran into repeat winners in three of her first four career starts. She looks as if she still has some upside and this is not a real tough spot for her first go against winners facing just four foes.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2 / 1,3
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The John Hettinger (1:05 ET)
8 Mah Jong Maddnes 7-2
6 Effie Trinket 7-5
10 Invading Humor 4-1
3 Stock Fund 10-1

Analysis: Mah Jong Maddnes tracked the early pace and faded to finish fifth last out in the state bred Yaddo at the Spa over ground labeled as good. She is back on her favorite surface as five of her six wins have come on the turf here. Three back at a mile she won the state bred Mt. Vernon and two back she ran well in a runner up finish in the open Perfect Sting. She should bounce back with a better effort here and gets a jock upgrade to Lezcano.

Effie Trinket made a mild late rally to finish third in the Yaddo, beaten four lengths for the top spot. The filly also has done her best work here, winning 4 of 7, She was a game second two our top pick three back in the Mt. Vernon. She rarely runs a bad one, landing in the money in 10 of her 13 career starts on grass.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,6,8,10
TRI: 6,8 / 3,6,8,10 / 2,3,6,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Woodbine:

WO Race 6 The Northern Dancer G1 (3:32 ET)
7 Aldous Snow 3-1
1 The Pizza Man 2-1
4 Karibu Gardens 4-1
8 Sheikhzayedroad 6-1

Analysis: Aldous Snow was the beaten favorite last out in the Sky Classic (G2), regressing off a pair of hard fought nose wins two and three back including a win in the Singspiel (G3) two back over three foes he faces again today. The stretch back out to 1 1/2 miles will suit and this guy should bounce back with a much better effort in this spot.

The Pizza Man has delivered five wins in a row, taking the American St. Leger last out at Arlington Park at 1 11/16 miles. He won at today's distance two back winning the Stars and Stripes (G3). It is tough to knock a gelding that has won 12 of his 16 career starts on turf, but his price is likely going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8
TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8 / 1,4,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R6: #7 Broad Rule 8-1
R7: #9 Kato 8-1
R8: #8 Henry’s Gal 10-1
R9: #3 Stock Fund 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 9/14 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (36 - 67 / $145.60): SECONDS LATER (4th)

Spot Play: MR PEARL (2nd)


Race 1

In a field of young inexperienced trotters, (1) MISSY'S MISFIT closed nicely in her big track debut and could have more to offer at a price. (2) OMYGOODNESS owns a nice win on the year and will be much closer turning for home. (5) SHOWMETHE Z TAM probably has the most upside in the race but just raced evenly last out and will offer low value.

Race 2

(1A) MR PEARL raced better than his line indicates in his last effort. The lightly raced 2-year-old showed a big burst of speed last out. (7) PISTOPACKINPIPER gets sent out for proven connections against much weaker. (3) LET'S NOT DWELL is a well bred colt that has plenty of room to improve in a field full of question marks.

Race 3

(1) ALL EYES ON HER would beat this field with a similar effort to her last few. (5) PYTHIA owns the best win in the field by far, but has trouble staying trotting at times. (4) FOX VALLEY SKYLAR is capable but has one win in 32 starts; use underneath.

Race 4

(3) SECONDS LATER finds a suspect field to gain some confidence. (5) RIDE SALLY could be the only threat to the top choice but has a tendency to come up short when it matters most. (7) WILD BERRY MUFFLER doesn't look the best on paper but is capable of hitting the ticket at a price.

Race 5

In a wide open betting race, (4) WESTERN DEAL is better from off the pace and keeps the top driver. (2) BELL VALLEY BILL is due for a big effort at this level; threat. (6) GALACTIC STAR has been pacing consistent miles and will be firing early.

Race 6

(1) SKYWAY BRENLIN raced greenly last out and was also a little rough-gaited. The pacer has a big engine and should score a victory with a similar effort. (8) BLOODBATH MCGRATH is a head case at times but does own a big burst of speed. (5) IT'S A BIG SECRET looks to be primed for a better effort against weaker.

Race 7

(1) RITASCAPE is a talented mare that jumps up in class off a victory and should offer decent value. (3) LOVE THIS PLACE owns the most back class in the field but will need more to get past the top choice. (5) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH picks up the top driver and will have a say late.

Race 8

(9) LADY LAKER hails from a barn that has a tremendous winning percentage at the track. The mare tried her luck against the best in the country and finds a much softer spot. (4) VIPER BLUE CHIP picks up the top driver and could be ready for a better effort. (3) CELEBRITY HERCULES had to need the start off a month, but still should've had more; command a price.

Race 9

(7) SEA WATCHER is a lightly raced mare that has been improving with every start and will be tough to catch with an early breather. (8) GET THE TERROR races inconsistently week to week but owns a big late kick every other start; threat. (9) GABBY REI looked to be turning a corner before racing evenly in her last three.

Race 10

(5) NATIVE LIGHTS gets sent out for red hot connections and will be on the move early. (6) WELL DUNE has a big burst of speed and with a good setup should be in the mix to hit the exacta. (10) BLUE TRUTH owns more ability than what he's shown but is best used underneath at a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington Park (2nd) Plains Warrior, 4-1
(3rd) A Nice Slewish Boy, 9-2

Belmont Park (4th) Kharafa, 4-1
(6th) Street Shark, 7-2


Belterra Park (5th) Bittersweet Dream, 9-2
(6th) Five Afleet, 5-1


Beulah Park (3rd) Moravitz, 7-2
(6th) Five Afleet, 5-1


Churchill Downs (1st) Lady Lynum, 8-1
(3rd) Fifty Pesos, 5-1


Emerald Downs (8th) Chumaree Red, 4-1
(9th) Jack the Pirate, 5-1


Fort Erie (2nd) Joking Femme, 5-1
(6th) Melnat, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Le Fascinator, 7-2
(7th) See Zo Go, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Hollywood Angel, 3-1
(5th) Osaka Joe, 6-1


Hastings Park (3rd) Sterling Remark, 3-1
(7th) Leo's in the House, 9-2


Los Alamitos (1st) Warren's Casper, 9-2
(3rd) Dehere Is Gone, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Fiesty Margie, 4-1
(6th) Merry Mike, 9-2


Monmouth Park (1st) Double Desert, 3-1
(5th) Quiet Miracle, 6-1


Mountaineer (1st) Pink Leninade, 3-1
(4th) Snake Salute, 4-1


Parx Racing (2nd) No More Strippers, 3-1
(3rd) Chac Mool, 3-1

Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Arrestedforpassion, 6-1
(6th) Apple of My Eye, 3-1


Thistledown (3rd) Last Effort, 6-1
(4th) Bourbon Beauty, 4-1


Woodbine (5th) Thebarberofbrazil, 4-1
(7th) Good So Far, 3-1