Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday
HORNETS @ HEAT 1:05 PM
Take: HEAT -6.5
Here we go, Game Seven between Charlotte and Miami as each team looks to keep its season alive for at least a little longer.
There isn’t much argument to the opinion that home teams have a substantial edge in these climactic games. The host team has garnered the victory in a whopping 80% of these games, and that is in NBA playoff history. Obviously, not all those victories were games in which the spread was also covered, but it’s nonetheless a strong starting point.
I see a few things here that I believe favor Miami. One is the experience factor. They’re one of the oldest teams in the NBA in terms of average age. While I guess one might argue that could be a sign they might wear down, I don’t buy that viewpoint and regard the experience factor as a plus.
I’m also wondering about the mindset of the Hornets. Not that they’re going to have tail between the legs syndrome necessarily, but losing Game Six when they had a great chance to close out the series at home is not what I’d call a confidence builder.
Finally, there’s the betting line and what it indicates to me. Games One and Two were Miami -4.5. Now here we are in Game Seven, the Hornets have proven they can win on this court in a 3-3 series, yet the line opened at -6.5, which is where it still sits as I’m writing this column. The oddsmakers saw fit to bump the line up two points from where it was at the start of this series.
No doubt the Game Seven history as a whole has something to do with that, but I also believe it’s an indicator by the guys who post the numbers. The number is geared to draw at least some Charlotte action, and mission accomplished on that count so far, as there are more tickets on the Hornets than the Heat right now. Well supported public dogs have gone belly up so far in the playoffs and I expect a similar result here. I’m laying the points with Miami in this one.
Bonus Play Sunday
HORNETS @ HEAT 1:05 PM
Take: HEAT -6.5
Here we go, Game Seven between Charlotte and Miami as each team looks to keep its season alive for at least a little longer.
There isn’t much argument to the opinion that home teams have a substantial edge in these climactic games. The host team has garnered the victory in a whopping 80% of these games, and that is in NBA playoff history. Obviously, not all those victories were games in which the spread was also covered, but it’s nonetheless a strong starting point.
I see a few things here that I believe favor Miami. One is the experience factor. They’re one of the oldest teams in the NBA in terms of average age. While I guess one might argue that could be a sign they might wear down, I don’t buy that viewpoint and regard the experience factor as a plus.
I’m also wondering about the mindset of the Hornets. Not that they’re going to have tail between the legs syndrome necessarily, but losing Game Six when they had a great chance to close out the series at home is not what I’d call a confidence builder.
Finally, there’s the betting line and what it indicates to me. Games One and Two were Miami -4.5. Now here we are in Game Seven, the Hornets have proven they can win on this court in a 3-3 series, yet the line opened at -6.5, which is where it still sits as I’m writing this column. The oddsmakers saw fit to bump the line up two points from where it was at the start of this series.
No doubt the Game Seven history as a whole has something to do with that, but I also believe it’s an indicator by the guys who post the numbers. The number is geared to draw at least some Charlotte action, and mission accomplished on that count so far, as there are more tickets on the Hornets than the Heat right now. Well supported public dogs have gone belly up so far in the playoffs and I expect a similar result here. I’m laying the points with Miami in this one.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Sunday, May 1, 2016 4:10 PM EST
(925) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (926) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, May 1, 2016 is in baseball as the Kansas City Royals and the Mariners clash in Seattle. Safeco Field in Seattle is a huge park, great for pitchers. Kansas City has great defense in the field and a strong bullpen if needed. Starter Ian Kennedy (2.77 ERA) is throwing well, with very good control. He faces a Seattle offense that is 21st in baseball in on base percentage and Kansas City is on 15-5-2 run under the total. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker (2-0, 1.44 ERA) is off to a great start with 25 strikeouts and three walks in 25 innings. Walker held the Astros to one run on six hits and a walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in Monday's victory. Walker induced a brilliant 18 swinging strikes in 118 pitches as he had the Astros waving all night. He nearly doubled his strikeout total for the season, raising it from 14 to 25, and his 11 strikeouts matched his high from last season, accomplished twice. Seattle is on a 9-4-1 run under the total, and when these teams clash the under is 6-2-2 here at Safeco. Play the Royals/Mariners Under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Sunday, May 1, 2016 4:10 PM EST
(925) KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS (926) SEATTLE MARINERS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, May 1, 2016 is in baseball as the Kansas City Royals and the Mariners clash in Seattle. Safeco Field in Seattle is a huge park, great for pitchers. Kansas City has great defense in the field and a strong bullpen if needed. Starter Ian Kennedy (2.77 ERA) is throwing well, with very good control. He faces a Seattle offense that is 21st in baseball in on base percentage and Kansas City is on 15-5-2 run under the total. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker (2-0, 1.44 ERA) is off to a great start with 25 strikeouts and three walks in 25 innings. Walker held the Astros to one run on six hits and a walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in Monday's victory. Walker induced a brilliant 18 swinging strikes in 118 pitches as he had the Astros waving all night. He nearly doubled his strikeout total for the season, raising it from 14 to 25, and his 11 strikeouts matched his high from last season, accomplished twice. Seattle is on a 9-4-1 run under the total, and when these teams clash the under is 6-2-2 here at Safeco. Play the Royals/Mariners Under the total.
Will Rogers
Manchester United vs Leicester
1* Bonus Play on Leicester City...
Leicester City can clinch the Premier League title with a win against Manchester United at Old Trafford Sunday afternoon. Manchester United are desperate for three points as they seek to track down and overtake Arsenal and/or Manchester City for a Champions League spot, and I think Leicester will get opportunities to snatch this game away.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. No Vardy, No Problem - The Foxes top scorer is set to miss the contest as he will serve the last of his two-game suspension. His replacement Leonardo Ulloa tallied two goals in last weekend's 4-0 win against Swansea.
2. Manchester United's Scoring Woes - The Red Devils are entering this contest on a four-game winning streak, but goals have not come easy this season. They have scored one goal or fewer in eight of their past 12 games and their 42 goals in 34 Premier League games is the worst of all teams in the top nine of the table.
3. X-Factor - Leicester goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel's father Peter Schmeichel is an icon at Old Trafford as the ex-goalkeeper led Manchester United to five titles during the 1990s. Expect Kasper to be pumped up to secure a Premier League trophy on his dad's old stomping grounds.
Selection: This is a play on Leicester City (Free)
Manchester United vs Leicester
1* Bonus Play on Leicester City...
Leicester City can clinch the Premier League title with a win against Manchester United at Old Trafford Sunday afternoon. Manchester United are desperate for three points as they seek to track down and overtake Arsenal and/or Manchester City for a Champions League spot, and I think Leicester will get opportunities to snatch this game away.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. No Vardy, No Problem - The Foxes top scorer is set to miss the contest as he will serve the last of his two-game suspension. His replacement Leonardo Ulloa tallied two goals in last weekend's 4-0 win against Swansea.
2. Manchester United's Scoring Woes - The Red Devils are entering this contest on a four-game winning streak, but goals have not come easy this season. They have scored one goal or fewer in eight of their past 12 games and their 42 goals in 34 Premier League games is the worst of all teams in the top nine of the table.
3. X-Factor - Leicester goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel's father Peter Schmeichel is an icon at Old Trafford as the ex-goalkeeper led Manchester United to five titles during the 1990s. Expect Kasper to be pumped up to secure a Premier League trophy on his dad's old stomping grounds.
Selection: This is a play on Leicester City (Free)
