SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +115 over Cleveland
Danny Salazar has 26 K’s in 23 innings and brings a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP into this start.Last season, Salazar made some nice gains with his biggest one being an increase in his groundball % from 34% to 44%. His raw stuff remains dominant (13% swing and miss rate), particularly his unhittable changeup (27% swing and miss rate) and solid slider (17% swing and miss rate). It’s difficult to score runs on Salazar when he’s on his game. However, he’s still prone to giving up jacks and now he’s having trouble getting ahead of hitters. His 49% first-pitch strike rate this year has greatly contributed to the 13 walks in 23 frames that he’s issued. As good as his stuff is, you can’t constantly fall behind hitters at this level and expect positive results. Salazar has the stuff to be elite but his poor control is getting in the way.
The Phillies have won five in a row and eight of their past nine games but the market still doesn’t believe in them, as they come in as a dog once again with their best pitcher on the mound. Vincent Velasquez just defeated Max Scherzer and the Nationals in his last start in Washington. He’s now 3-1 with three pure quality starts under his belt. Velasquez has been electric so far with a 33/6 K/BB split in 25 innings. That level of command puts him in elite territory and it has come with the support of a 16% swing and miss rate, 73% first-pitch strike rate, and 33% ball%. Velasquez has three legitimate strikeout pitches (24% swing and miss rate on changeup, 16% swing and miss rate on four-seam fastball, 11% swing and miss rate on curveball). His arsenal points to a bright future with his big fastball, great changeup and strikeout curve and it could come very quickly. That Velasquez is a pooch at home is our cue to step in immediately.
Colorado (5 innings) +103
Chad Bettis went 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 115 innings for the Rockies last season. He was an emergency rotation member to start the year and managed to keep his head above water by keeping the ball out of the thin air. Bettis’s dominant start/disaster start was not bad at all considering where he pitched half his games and it speaks to his "not horribleness." A month-long DL stint (elbow) interrupted his season-ending run of eight pure quality starts in 9 attempts. Bettis combined strikeouts (7.7 K’s/9) and groundballs (49%) in 2015, and he also managed a 10% swing and miss rate. He’s carried that moderate success into this season with very similar numbers, not to mention a 3.77/3.69 ERA/xERA split. More importantly, when we can take back any tag whatsoever against Shelby Miller, you can pencil us in with no questions asked.
We don’t even know where to start with just how miserable Shelby Miller truly is. To get Miller from Atlanta, the Snakes sent three-players, highlighted by shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft along with outfielder Ender Inciarte and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. This seriously might one of the five worst trades in baseball history. Miller came into this season with a lot of different forecasts. For some, he's someone who could deliver more value than expected. Others will have noted his mediocre skill base from 2015 and stay away and we’re among those but things are going from bad to worse for Miller. We’ll start with his 15 walks in 20 innings after five starts. Miller is pitching behind in the count in 72% of all pitches thrown. Only seven pitchers in the majors are worse than that. Hitters are making contact on 86.6% of his pitches, which is the 5th worst mark in the majors among all starters. Next up is Miller’s legit 8.56 ERA to go along with a groundball/fly-ball split of 23%/54%. Throw in a 1.93 WHIP in a HR-friendly and gap friendly home park to this profile and one has to wonder how Shelby Miller is going to get past the third inning in any home start this year. Miller is damaged goods that is not only messed up physically, he’s also a psychological mess. The good news for the D-Backs is that they are only paying him $535,000 this year so there are not going to be many more opportunities to fade this stiff because he’s not going to around much longer. This is one of those opportunities.
San Diego +271 over LOS ANGELES
The Dodgers losing streak has hit six in a row after dropping another one yesterday to the Padres. Surely, with Clayton Kershaw going, they are not going to lose seven in a row, are they? Don’t be so sure. For one, the price here makes the Padres worthy of a play. Secondly, the low total of 6½ makes the Padres worthy of a play because one or two runs could win it. Thirdly, the chance of the bullpens deciding this outcome is a distinct possibility and if that should come to pass, it makes the Padres very worthy of a play. Clayton Kershaw is a pitcher that needs no introduction whatsoever but let us point out that the best pitchers in baseball will start 35-40 games and win 18-20 of them. It is rare to see any pitcher win 20 games in this day and age and that includes Kershaw that has two 20-win seasons in seven years. His other win totals were 8, 13, 14, 16 and 16. That means about half his starts are decided by the bullpens. In five starts this season, Kershaw has two wins. Dude might be the best pitcher on Earth but you still need run support to win games and right now the Dodgers aren’t providing any.
Unlike Kershaw, Drew Pomeranz needs an introduction because he’s not very well known. What we know for sure is that Pomeranz has the third best mark in the majors among all starters in contact percentage. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the top four in order are Cole Hamels, David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Noah Syndergaard. Ironically, all four are starting today. Hamels is a -126 favorite over Texas, Price is -154 over the Yanks and Syndergaard is a -134 favorite over Madson Bumgarner and the Giants. Meanwhile, Drew Pomeranz is taking back almost 3-1. Few starters have been more dominant than this former first-round pick. Pomeranz comes in with a BB/K split of 12/31 in 22 innings. He has an elite 18% swing and miss rate, which is the second best mark in MLB behind ace Noah Syndergaard. Credit the development of his knuckle-curve for it. He has a 23% swing and miss rate with that pitch so far in '16 compared to an 8% mark with it in '15. This is by far one of the biggest overlays we have ever seen in this sport and it’s all because of pedigree and familiarity. Kershaw and the Dodgers have it while Pomeranz and the Padres do not. Even if we lose this game, we’ll be proud to rip our ticket because of the value attached to it. You will never see Drew Pomeranz taking back a price like this again unless it’s in a tennis match with Billie Jean King. Taking back 1½-runs and 15 cents isn’t a bad wager either. Invest.
BOSTON -1½ +147 over N.Y. Yankees
Nathan Eovaldi added a splitter to his repertoire last season, then tweaked his grip in June, which led to an increase in velocity. It also led to second half bumps in strikeouts, first-pitch strikes, swinging strikes and his groundball rate. Perhaps Eovaldi’s control regression was the temporary result of tinkering. An elbow inflammation that ended his season hangs a cloud over his 2016 outlook, but there is reason for cautious optimism. Eovaldi’s numbers are trending the right way but this isn’t a bet against him. This is a bet against the Yanks, a team that is loaded with players in the twilight of their careers that are all fringe everyday players now. They play every day because the Yanks have no choice but to play them because they are paying them a damn fortune from 12M per to 21M per. The Yanks cannot score runs, they can’t string together hits, they hit into double plays often and they strike out at the most inopportune times too. 4-2 losers on Friday night, the Yanks lost 8-0 last night and will now face David Price.
The Yanks have scored two runs or less in four straight and in four of their last five games. They are dead last in the league in runs scored. They are second last in the league (ahead of only Atlanta) in total bases, total hits and slugging percentage. New York scores most of their runs via the long ball when one of their aging stiffs gets a hold of a bad pitch. David Price doesn’t throw many bad pitches in a game and neither does Boston’s relievers.
