Super Bowl 51 Betting Update
By Micah Roberts
The Super Bowl 51 Betting Update will provide daily betting updates from Micah Roberts in Las Vegas on this year's NFL finale between New England and Atlanta, which is set for Sunday, Feb. 5, 2017.
Update - 2.3.17 - 4:00 p.m. ET
It's now the fourth quarter of booking for Las Vegas sports books and the story behind where the Super Bowl spread eventually moves begins tonight. Almost every book is sitting with the Patriots still at -3 (-110), but this is a long fourth quarter that has just begun.
"We have all the arrivals coming to town tonight and tomorrow and I'm real curious to see who they side with," said Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay. "Through the first 12 days of action our regular crowd of locals have been siding with the Patriots with three in every five tickets written. But now I want to see what the tourists are thinking; who are they going to side with and they'll make the biggest difference of all since we've yet to see about 75 percent of our overall action expected on the game."
And just where exactly does Kornegay see his spread being forced by the tourists?
"I could see New England getting as high as -3 -120 or -130."
Or in other words, he doesn't sound too keen on the idea of getting off of 3. At this juncture no one does, but most casinos haven't even seen their billionaire whales arrive yet.
What we did see on Friday was some early activity with a couple books moving numbers. Nothing really happened the previous two days, but a few were maneuvering beginning with CG Technology adjusting the record total that was sitting at 59 with every book in town.
"We dropped the total down to 58.5 based simply on one of our sharpest guys betting Under in several offensive props and alternate totals like 46.5 and 51.5," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "We're equal in action on the both the Over and Under with the exception of parlays where both sides are tied heavily to the Over. We opened 58.5 and since moving back, nobody has bet the Over for the limit."
Within minutes after the conversation ended with Simbal, they got a big Over bet and moved back to 59. It was short lived, but hey, at least we have some activity and the total move wasn't the only happening.
CG books also moved the Falcons to +3 -115 early in the morning and went back to 3-flat three hours later. Simbal says his books are "balanced on the game, but two out of every three tickets written have been on the Patriots."
He also said that his sharpest bettor has made multiple limit plays on the Falcons with them and if risk eventually does get heavier on the Patriots with all the weekend arrivals that they can rely on the same bettor to take some more action on the Falcons. Yes, this bettor loves the Falcons and loves the total way Under.
Shortly after, John Avello at Wynn Resorts and Bob Scucci at Boyd Gaming each moved the Patriots to -3 -115. It's a trend I think we'll be seeing more of as millions of dollars run through the windows over the next three days. We'll keep you updated as the real fun has just started.
WHAT'S A SHARP THINKING?
Jeff Whitelaw has been one of the most respected bettors in Las Vegas for the past 25 years and he kindly shared with me a few of the Super Bowl plays he's made. I figured there might be a few people out there who might be interested in his comments.
"I'm high on all the Brady props going Over like touchdown passes (2,5), completions (27), passing yards (329.5) with the exception being rushing yards (2.5) which I bet Under."
If Brady has a great game, then beating the Pats looks to be tough task and that's where Whitelaw has put his money.
"New England has the better defense and I think sometimes people can be wowed too much by what they saw last, like was the case last year when Carolina rolled through the playoffs. 'How is Denver's defense going to stop that offense' is what I kept hearing. The last five Super Bowls featuring the top scoring offense against the top scoring defense have saw the defense come out on top.
"The area I think New England has an edge is with Brady against the Falcons defense. He eats up zone defenses and that's what Atlanta employs most of the time. I also think Belichick will have his team prepared more. Almost every intangible points to the Patriots winning. And then you've got the public having a great season, and they like the Patriots too."
Yes, the public certainly has been on an epic NFL roll this season.
Update - 2.1.17 - 6:00 p.m. ET
Super Bowl wagers continue to flow in at a nice pace through Las Vegas sports books, but the only real activity on the odds board Wednesday afternoon happened at CG Technology when they moved the Patriots from 3-flat to -3 (-105). It was the third time in six days they've gone that way. It lasted less than an hour before they moved back to 3-flat.
On Friday they took a six-figure wager on the Falcons to force the initial move and when they're looking to balance the cash out on the game VP of risk management Jason Simbal says "it's easy to get action at -3 -105."
Simbal said Wednesday afternoon that his chain of nine sports books in Las Vegas have 65 percent of their tickets written on the Patriots but 58 percent of the overall cash is on the Falcons. Sharp money has been seeded everywhere around town on the Falcons. The public likes the Patriots.
What every bookmaker in town wants to know is if the public trend continues when the bulk of the Super Bowl action happens over the weekend. If it does, then all the $100-$1,000 Patriots wagers will add up to more in the overall cash pool than the early limit action taken on the Falcons.
So who is the public going to show more favor with this weekend?
"We really don't know," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "Our overall ticket counts have been relatively even and our cash count is favoring the Patriots by a 7-to-5 ratio."
The 10 MGM books haven't moved off 3-flat and Stoneback says they haven't attracted any sharp action, which is surprising because they deal to almost all of them on a regular basis for all sports. He estimates that 90 percent of their overall Super Bowl action will come Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Stoneback also said their Super Bowl handle is slightly down from last season when the state of Nevada set a record with $132 million wagered on the Broncos-Panthers game.
I wish there was more to report, but this Super Bowl is still sitting -3 and 59 everywhere and it's rather boring. The activity going on in Las Vegas reminds me of a Talladega NASCAR race where every driver stays in line for the first 178 laps and then starts maneuvering for position in the final 10 laps. I'm hopeful those final 10 laps to the finish line starts on Saturday with some movement -- any movement -- either way.
Update - 1.31.17 - 6:30 p.m. ET
As of late Tuesday afternoon, every Las Vegas sports book is showing the exact same Super Bowl number with the Patriots still -3 and the total still 59. And it doesn't look like anything is going to change for at least the next few days until the wave of weekend action starts.
The first book to move off -3 is likely going to be the South Point just because they're the only book to use flat numbers. While other books next move -- if any -- will be to -115 or -120 on one of the sides, the South Point policy is to deal only -110 on each. If the risk at that number gets too high, the move is either to -2.5 or -3.5, or stay on 3 and incur more risk.
I talked with book director Chris Andrews regarding their stance with six nights of action still to come and he doesn't appear to be moving the spread any time soon..
"We're higher on the Patriots point-spread, but also higher on the Falcons money-line (+135)," he said. We're sitting well on the game, but what we really need is the game to stay Under. it's a big decision for us."
Andrews has moved to 59.5 on three separate occasions over the last nine days of action and each time he's quickly found enough Under money to move back to 59.
When asked if a 27-25 Patriots win would be the best overall result, Andrews chuckled saying "I'd would love that score." That's called a 'bookmakers dream' and the last time it happened was in 2005 when the Patriots won 24-21 over the Eagles, but didn't cover the 7-points. The Nevada books held 17 percent in that game, which is still the highest Super Bowl hold percentage ever in the state.
WHY DOES SOUTH POINT USE ONLY FLAT NUMBERS?
The South Point is the only sports book in Nevada that uses exclusively flat numbers. You won't see a -120 or -115 attached to any of their spreads due to a policy instituted by legendary owner Michael Gaughan, one of the few casino owners in town that actually understands bookmaking very well.
Gaughan opened one of the first sports books located inside a casino at the Union Plaza in the early 70's and also gave Jimmy Vaccaro his first bookmaking job at the Royal Inn in 1977. He's a pioneer of bookmaking and so is his Lineage. His father Jackie Gaughan owned the El Cortez and was operating several legal stand alone bet shops in downtown Las Vegas during the 50's and 60's.
So when Gaughan decides he doesn't want his book moving juice, he does so with knowledge and a refreshing old school flair that is appreciated by his guests. Also, he gains more action when all the other books attach -120 to a side because his flat number is usually the most attractive in town. It's also easier for his novice customers to understand.
WHY NOT MANY 3'S IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY?
There's a reason that only two of the past 27 Super Bowls have had spreads at 3 despite it being the most key number in the NFL. The bookmakers don't want to deal with the possibility of a push on their biggest game of the year and refund all the wagers. They want a decision, but the longer they stay on Patriots -3, the harder it's going to be for them to move, unless of course, massive action comes on one of the sides.
With the way two-sided action has been coming in, any advantage with a hook at either -2.5 or +3.5 would be played heavily. If the books move off the number and the game lands 3, they'll put themselves in big position to be sided like the city has never seen before.
BLACK SUNDAY
The last time Las Vegas got sided in the Super Bowl was when they were middled in 1979 with the Steelers 35-31 win over the Cowboys. The volume of action back then was far lighter than today, but they ended up losing the Pittsburgh -3.5 bets, giving back the bets on 4 and losing to Dallas bettors taking +4.5. It's a day still known as Black Sunday.
The South Point's Jimmy Vaccaro is the last Vegas bookmaker still working in the business that experienced Black Sunday. He said he got loaded with Steelers money early on laying -3.5 and -4 and then a big Texas group laid heavy cash taking +4.5.
Nevada did't record wagering for the game like they do now, but Vaccaro estimated losses in town up to $3 million which would make it the worst Super Bowl loss ahead of the $2.5 million Nevada lost in 2008 with the Giants 17-14 upset of the undefeated Patriots.
Listening to Vaccaro tell the Black Sunday story always is great stuff. Here's a quote from him in an article I wrote two years ago.
“When it was all over, we lost $180,000, while the books that took the biggest action at that time — the Stardust and Plaza — lost the most. The Plaza lost about $700,000, and I remember Lefty Rosenthal telling me they lost $1.4 million at the Stardust on the game. I think the Stardust was running a promotion at the time of laying -3.5 with the Steelers or taking +4.5 with the Cowboys.”
Update - 1.30.17 - 3:30 p.m. ET
It's a quiet Monday at Las Vegas sports books, but Super Bowl action is still consistently flowing in. I checked in with Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman Monday afternoon to see what kind of betting patterns they saw over the weekend and when, of if, there is a possible point-spread change in the upcoming days.
"Right now -3 is a really good number for us," he said. "Each time we've gone to Falcons +3 EVEN we've got immediate sharp action on them. The public is on the Patriots and the sharps are on the Falcons."
The public is still bringing in more cash than the sharps as the Westgate has 58 percent of their action on the Patriots. Sharps are wise people, so I asked Sherman why they wouldn't wait for the public to force the sports books to move +3.5, because without those large Atlanta bets the spread might already be at 3.5.
"They're too quick on anything they perceive of value and +3 EVEN is attractive to them. Ed (Salmons, SuperBook manager) thinks it's more likely to move to -2.5 before -3.5. I thought 3 was the right number from the start and I still feel that way," added Sherman.
Sherman said they've seen about 10 percent of their overall expected Super Bowl action, so things could flip rapidly just like last season when the books all needed Denver big with three days of betting remaining only to see some need Carolina by kickoff.
The only move on the Vegas board Monday was the South Point dropping their total from 59.5 back to 59 like all the other books. Sherman says the Westgate has a 2-to-1 ratio to the ‘over’ with a few large bets from sharp bettors on the ‘under’ keeping them at that 2-to-1 ratio.
"The correlation we're seeing is the public betting New England and Over while sharps are on Atlanta and Under," Sherman said.
I found that interesting just because the main correlation with Atlanta having success all season is its total going ‘over’ in the same game. In 11 of the 12 Atlanta covers this season, the side-to-total combination came in. Atlanta has gone 15-2-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including 7-0-1 in its last eight, and all 11 played in a dome went ‘over’ too. Houston's NRG Stadium has a retractable roof but it is expected to be open unless weather plays a role.
As for the Westgate's world famous props that were opened Thursday, there was some early optimism about the solid numbers they posted.
"Usually we get three to four bets on the same prop and just keep raising the number after each bet, but we didn't get that this year. We haven't had any prop bet for the limit more than two times the same way, but there's a long ways to go," said Sherman.
That's it from Vegas on Monday.
Not a lot going on, but the pace will gradually increase each day leading up to Sunday's kickoff and we'll be there to report on it.
Update - 1.28.17 - 4:09 p.m. ET
Super Bowl action continues to flow through Las Vegas sports books at an equal pace on both the Patriots and Falcons which has the numbers on the board at a standstill with the majority still showing -3 and 59.
"I want to get off 3 if I can, but if it doesn't make sense then there's no reason for us to go," said Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts.
However, Rood has been very happy with the handle so far.
"I was looking at the day-by-day handle over the same time span as last year and the handle is very comparable," he said.
Last year's Super Bowl set a Nevada state record with $132 million wagered and the 10 MGM properties were huge contributors to that figure.
Oddly, the MGM books still have yet to take a massive bet.
"We've had a couple inquiries about making six-figures wagers on both sides, but nothing has happened yet.
The hub staff located at the Mirage realesed most of their props on Thursday and Friday and are working on three more pages of "goofy props" for the game that should finalize their prop packet handed to guests on Monday.
Rood is also seeing some big action from the boxing world tonight as the MGM Grand hosts the WBA Super World Featherweight title with Carl Frampton (23-0) a -160 favorite over Leo Santa Cruz (32-1-1).
Outside of that, it's a ho-hum Saturday at the books with college basketball taking center stage with bettors bankrolls.
Update - 1.27.17 - 4:30 p.m. ET
The entire week I've been wondering when the Super Bowl line would move from New England -3 to -3.5, but a new question arises: could this line get to -2.5?
It seems unlikely, but with the way large money found its way to the books taking Atlanta +3 (EVEN) and (-105), there's only one book in town -- the Golden Nugget -- that has the Patriots at -3 with added juice (-115).
"I haven't had any reason to move off (-115)," said Golden Nugget book director Tony Miller," and I'm willing to take up to a $50,000 bet. In talking with people around town, I think I was one of the few who initially suggesting this game could go to -2.5. We'll see how it goes."
CG Technology books had the Patriots -3 (-115), but the Falcons are now +3 (-115). "We took a six-figure bet on the Falcons (+3 -105)," said VP of risk management Jason Simbal.
If large respected money betting this early is taking the Falcons +3 (EV), then its likely they don't think we'll ever see +3.5. However, being the skeptic I am, my first thought process is that it's a smoke screen with sharper money seeding the thought in bookmakers minds that the sharp side is Atlanta and then when the move is made they come firing in for much larger action everywhere at once on the Patriots -2.5.
But remember, the public action controls this game and Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornagay estimates that only seven percent of his overall Super Bowl action has passed through the bet windows. There's a long way to go in this ever changing story.
This is the top story that will carry on over the weekend which will make screen watching a fun activity. The record total of 59 is flat across town with equal action on both sides.
COOL PROP
There's always one prop that stands out as being the most clever and early returns show a catchy one at the Westgate involving the NHL's Vegas Golden Knights who begin play next season. Who will have more? The Golden Knights 2017-18 points are -20.5 against Devonta Freeman's rushing yards. Who knows just how good the Knights will be, but Freeman totaled 1,079 yards in the regular season and ran 42 yards and 45 yards in two playoff wins. The lowest point total in the NHL last season was Toronto with 69 points.
SAFETY ANYONE?
Westgate manager Ed Salmons says the true odds on a safety happening is one in 16 games and odds used to be posted with the NO -1400 and YES at +900. But after four safeties have occurred over the last eight Super Bowls, the odds reflect it with NO at -700 and YES at +500. Two of those safeties were the first score of the game which paid out at over 100-to-1 odds.
"First score being a safety?, Wynn sports books director John Avello recalled. "Wow, that was a killer a couple years ago. Yeah, it cost us six figures right out of the gate."
Seattle made that fun happen for a few lucky bettors taking a chance in 2014 against Denver and two years earlier the Giants got on the board first when Tom Brady got called for intentional grounding in the end zone against the Giants.
William Hill sports books are offering the first score being a safety for both the Patriots and Falcons at 75-to-1 odds each.
A safety hasn't occurred in the past two Super Bowls and even though I would never recommend laying a large price, the deflated odds on NO at -700 looks to be the easiest money on the board.
Update - 1.26.17 - 5:00 p.m. ET
The main Super Bowl story in Las Vegas Thursday is the anticipation of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook releasing over 350 propositions. They've become the standard in town and there will be dozens of bettors waiting to get the first whack at their numbers which is supposed to appear on the digital boards at 7:00 p.m. PT.
I called SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay in the afternoon to see how the process was going and he and his crew were still going full throttle to meet the 7 pm deadline.
"No, we're still finalizing all of them," he said. "The entire process is just so time consuming, and I'm not only talking about coming up the numbers for each prop. We've got three to four layers of double checking between five people where we make sure we've spelled everything correct, the bet numbers listed are correct and the proper verbiage is listed for each prop."
The actual process of making the numbers for the props is time consuming in itself. Kornegay and his bookmaking staff met the previous two nights covering 14 hours to hammer out those numbers, but the most tedious process is the set-up for the system and getting the sheets quadruple-checked and bound together, which eventually looks like a book.
However, it's worth all the work. Kornegay gets huge national attention for the Westgate due to the props and they'll write 55 percent of its Super Bowl action on the props, a number that keeps rising each year and is the highest percentage in the city.
William Hill's 108 sports books have their props all set up and ready to go for a release to the public on Friday morning. They've tentatively set Matt Ryan's passing yards at 335.5 and Tom Brady's at 329.5. They've also got some clever props that involve other sports such as Oregon's points against Arizona being -7.5 against Legerrette Blount rushing yards.
As for the game itself there hasn't been much going on with four books still showing -3 with some variation of added juice to the Patriots side.
"We had some Falcons money come in, and if it weren't for the large Patriots bet we took earlier in the week, we'd have more money on the Falcons. But ticket counts so far favor the Patriots," Kornegay said after moving the spread back to 3-flat.
The ticket count disparity is showing at CG Technology books as well with VP of risk management Jason Simbal saying his eight sports books have "two times more tickets written and 1.7 times more money on the Patriots" which explains why they moved to -3 (-115) on Wednesday.
The record-high total is a steady 59 at books all across town with the high Patriots money-line at -165/+145 at The South Point and Stratosphere and the low being -150/+130 at Boyd Gaming and William Hill. Over 62 percent of the money-line cash taken in at William Hill has been on the Patriots, which is a major shift in Super Bowl wagering where the underdog gets more action.
The big story moving forward will continue to be when, or if, a sports book makes the jump to -3.5 and whether or not the underdog Falcons can garner enough public support to keep the game at -3. If I had to choose who will make the move first, I would pick the South Point just because their policy is to use only flat numbers. The influx of weekend visitors could accelerate Patriots risk to force a move somewhere.
Update - 1.25.17 - 4:45 p.m. ET
A couple of Las Vegas sports books got off their 3-flat number as Patriots money is starting flow, but two of the books -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and Station Casinos -- who were at -3 (-120) already went back to 3-flat on Wednesday morning showing that a few bettors found Atlanta +3 (EVEN) attractive.
Boyd Gaming sports books have been at -3 (-115) since Monday.
"The early action has been strong so far," said Boyd sports book director Bob Scucci. "We're seeing more play from the public on the Patriots and our larger bets have been on the Falcons, but that was at +3 EVEN and -105. All we've done is move the money so far."
Scucci's strategy is of the conservative nature when dealing with the most key number in the NFL and he doesn't want to overreact too soon.
"The pattern over the last few years has seen an influx of money coming in on game day, so I don't want to get off the number if I don't have to," he said. "I'm more likely to stay where I'm at until all that action comes in the final two days of betting."
CG Technology sports books made the move from 3-flat to -3 (-115) on Wednesday morning with VP of risk management Jason Simbal citing an "accumulation" of Patriots wagers signaling it was their time to move. John Avello at the Wynn Las Vegas also made the move to -3 (-115) citing a "good-size Patriots bet" for the move.
The record setting Super Bowl total has also developed a betting trend that seems more likely to stay true through the next 11 days than the betting patterns on the side.
"We were as high as 60 and just dropped it from 59.5 down to 59," Scucci said. "We've had a few respected bettors take the Under, but the majority of the parlays have both sides to the Over and its been bet at over a 4-to-1 ratio."
Parlay risk rarely makes a book move a number, but with both sides to the 'over' looming large and it being the highest handled game of the year, risk over six-figures on either side to the 'over' is definitely something to take into the equation for bookmakers which means we'll probably see the total moving higher than lower down the stretch. Remember, the public is in charge here with the line movement, not the sharps.
SOUTH POINT PROP
We told you yesterday that the Stratosphere was offering -105 juice on either side through Thursday, which is something South Point owner Michael Gaughan usually offers to all his loyal casino guests. I asked book director Chris Andrews if they would be doing it and he said "not yet, but you know me and Jimmy (Vaccaro). We figure to do something."
One of the things they're offering already is an alternative spread for those looking for a hook on either side. They have the Patriots -2.5 (-135) and the Falcons +3.5 (-120), numbers that essential say they're closer to moving to -3.5 on their regular point spread. The South Point is the only book in town that offer exclusively flat number. We'll be talking about their booking dilemma on that procedure over the next few days.
COME MEET LT
Part of the Las Vegas Super Bowl experience is drawing fans and bettors to a property using former football players and the Orleans has a Hall-of-Famer scheduled to hang out.
"We have Lawrence Taylor signing autographs in the Bourbon Street lounge from 6 to 8 pm the day before the Super Bowl," said Scucci, who also mentioned they have a free viewing party in their ball room with food and drink specials.
No city does the Super Bowl experience better than Las Vegas and it doesn't really matter where you watch it at. It's a far more intense viewing experience than any place else, including actually watching the game live in Houston. It's just my biased opinion anyway.
