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Super Bowl Consensus Picks

The 2016 NFL season is here as the Super Bowl champion Broncos will look to defend their title without Peyton Manning under center. Our stable of handicappers provided their conference champions for the upcoming campaign along with who will capture Super Bowl LI in Houston next February.

Not one of the experts predicted that Denver would repeat, much less win the AFC championship. However, several handicappers believed the Panthers would get over the hump following a 24-10 defeat in Super Bowl 50 to the Broncos in spite of winning 17 of their first 18 games last season.

Handicapper Joe Nelson has faith that Carolina will return to the Super Bowl, “While surprise teams can emerge, the field of serious contenders in the NFC looks like a much shorter list than there is in the AFC. The Panthers lead that group after a dominant 15-1 season and cruising through NFC playoffs before running into Denver’s great defense. The Super Bowl loss should fuel a team that still returns a great deal of talent as the offense will get Kelvin Benjamin back and the defense should remain capable even with the departure of Josh Norman.”

Nelson points out that Carolina’s schedule works in its favor, “The Panthers also have some breaks in the schedule, catching Denver in Week 1 with Trevor Siemian’s first ever NFL start plus hosting a now scrambling Vikings team in Week 3, right after Minnesota opens its new stadium for a huge Week 2 game with the Packers. Carolina will also be hosting a few of the tougher games on the schedule as well with home matchups with Arizona and Kansas City.”

The Packers lost another playoff game in walk-off fashion in January, but expert Scott Rickenbach isn’t afraid to pull the trigger on them, “Green Bay is projected by many to challenge for the Super Bowl this season and I am one of those who expects them to not only get there but to prevail. While there is no question their offense should be solid with Aaron Rodgers leading the way behind a somewhat improved offensive line, the key will come down to the defense. The Packers did lose a handful of starters from last year’s defense. However, a big help in that regard is that the Pack only have 2 road games prior to October 30th. The early season home-heavy schedule should help Green Bay get off to a good start and momentum should help build up to a huge season for the Pack.”

Seattle fell short of its third straight NFC championship last season, but one expert feels the Seahawks will be back. “The Seahawks are a team that is re-inventing itself still has the veteran leadership of Russell Wilson at QB and Richard Sherman on the defensive side of the ball. With this leadership the offense will be fine with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael replacing Marshawn Lynch,” says Pat Hawkins.

“Seattle gets the AFC East on the schedule this season, they should go 3-1 vs these teams, while pulling the NFC South as well, another 3-1 should be doable. In the division they will beat up on the 49ers, Rams and most likely split with the Cardinals. This team will win the NFC North and will most likely have home field through the playoffs.”

On the AFC side, the most frequent team our experts predicted to make Super Bowl LI was the Patriots. Also in the mix was Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City with multiple handicappers believing these squads will play in Houston in February. However, one expert can see the city hosting the Super Bowl having its own team playing in its backyard.

Handicapper Bruce Marshall is high on Houston taking that next step in 2016, “With a clearer path to the playoffs than most AFC contenders thanks to the questionable AFC South, the Texans look poised to make a run after winning the division with four different starting quarterbacks a year ago! If ex-Bronco Brock Osweiler proves the answer at QB, and ex-Dolphin Lamar Miller upgrades the infantry, Houston will have gone a long way toward solving its offensive concerns. The "D" is already the top platoon in its division, if not the entire AFC. If this is indeed the year for the Texans, a special thanks would go to super-agent Jimmy Sexton, who delivered Osweiler to Houston.”

NFL Championship Predictions

AFC Champion NFC Champion Super Bowl Champion

Andy Iskoe Kansas City Arizona Kansas City

Antony Dinero New England Arizona New England

ASA Pittsburgh Green Bay Green Bay

Brian Edwards New England Green Bay Green Bay

Bruce Marshall Houston Seattle Houston

Chip Chirimbes Cincinnati Seattle Seattle

Dave Cokin Pittsburgh Seattle Pittsburgh

Don Anthony New England Green Bay Green Bay

Gary Bart New England Seattle New England

Greg Smith Cincinnati Seattle Seattle

Hank Goldberg Cincinnati Green Bay Green Bay

Jim Feist New England Seattle Seattle

Jim Mack Kansas City Green Bay Green Bay

Jimmy Boyd New England Green Bay Green Bay

Joe Nelson Pittsburgh Carolina Carolina

Joe Williams Pittsburgh Carolina Carolina

John Fisher Pittsburgh Green Bay Green Bay

Kevin Rogers New England Carolina Carolina

Kyle Hunter Pittsburgh Seattle Seattle

Marc Lawrence New England Arizona New England

Mark Franco Pittsburgh Green Bay Pittsburgh

Micah Roberts Houston Seattle Seattle

Pat Hawkins Houston Seattle Seattle

Paul Bovi Baltimore Seattle Seattle

Scott Pritchard New England Green Bay Green Bay

Scott Rickenbach Pittsburgh Green Bay Green Bay

Stephen Nover New England Green Bay Green Bay

Vince Akins Cincinnati Seattle Seattle

Zack Cimini Cincinnati Green Bay Green Bay

 

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Opening Line Report - Super Bowl
By Marcus DiNitto

While the Patriots opened universally as field-goal favorites over the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, the record total is the story line that has the attention of Las Vegas bookmakers.

The total opened between 58 and 59.5 around Vegas, and even if it closes at the low end of that range, it would be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, surpassing the 57 for the Saints’ 31-17 win over the Colts in Super Bowl 44 in Miami.

The Wynn took early sharp action on ‘under’ its opener of 59 for this year’s Super Bowl in Houston, but John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, figured the wiseguys were going that way at his shop because there were lower numbers elsewhere.

CG Technology opened 58 and saw public money come hard on the ‘over.’

By the time we spoke to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG, about an hour after New England completed its 36-17 win over Pittsburgh for the AFC title, the book had written $20,000 on ‘over’ and just $120 on ‘under’. While the biggest ‘over’ bet was $3,300, CG’s early limit on the Super Bowl total, all the action was public.

“No real sharp action about it,” Simbal said. “It was all fans cashing in their tickets and betting it back on the ‘over’.”

The public will continue to bet ‘over,’ Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, anticipates. That’s the way the public typically bets, and two more ‘overs’ cashing in Sunday’s conference championship games won’t sway them off that tendency. The Falcons’ 44-21 win over Green Bay sent that game soaring ‘over’ a total that was as high as 61 at some spots, and the AFC game got ‘over’ a number ranging from 49.5 to 51 at kickoff.

“The public likes to bet over, and these high numbers aren’t scaring them,” Salmons said.

There will be a number at which wiseguys will be compelled to go the other way, however. While they lost on ‘under’ 61 in Sunday’s NFC tilt, they’ll take another shot with that bet if the Super Bowl total gets to a certain threshold, Salmons guesses.

“Once this game settles, the wiseguys will look to bet under 59,” Salmons said.

They may get that opportunity

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up 60, especially after what we saw (Sunday) with the favorites and ‘over’ covering pretty easily,” Simbal said.

The point spread

Sports books across Las Vegas and offshore agreed on the opening point spread for Super Bowl 51, hanging New England -3 as the Pats put their game against the Steelers out of reach.

While no one seems to come close to the Patriots – they’ve failed to cover just three times this season and only twice with Tom Brady active – the early line felt right to the three bookmakers with whom we spoke.

In the week leading up to Sunday’s games, Simbal’s group at CG was thinking New England -3 (-120) or -3.5 for a potential Super Bowl matchup with the Falcons. In fact, CG was dealing Pats -3 (-120) as a look-ahead line, but didn’t get much interest.

“We knew that price wasn’t horrible because none of the sharp guys laid it or took it,” Simbal said. “(But the Falcons) looked awesome (Sunday), and we were thinking maybe 2.5.”

Salmons echoed that sentiment.

“After watching the first game and watching the first half of the second game, I thought the line would be 2.5, maybe even a touch lower,” he said. “But as Pittsburgh kind of gave up in the second half and the Patriots were converting touchdowns, it reached 3, which is where we started the day (before the games were played).”

Salmons said some Westgate house players bet Patriots and ‘over’ in Super Bowl wagering Sunday night. At CG, 20 of the first 33 bets were on New England, although a limit-wager of $11,000 to win $10,000 was placed on the Falcons +3.

Avello said a money-line wager on the Pats prompted a move from -150 to -155 at the Wynn.

How will the line move?

When it comes to Super Bowl wagering, public money overwhelms sharp action. Therefore, the line moves largely based on the public’s opinion, and since they’ve been cashing on the Patriots every week, it’s hard to see the public changing course, especially against the far less popular Falcons.

“If the public decides they like the Patriots, no matter how much the wiseguys like the other side, the public will drive the number,” Salmons said.

Salmons envisions the line getting to as high as 3.5 but not lasting long there before it gets bought back to New England -3 (-120) or -3.5 (even).

Added Avello, “If it’s going anywhere, it’s probably going up. I don’t see it coming down to 2.5. With the number being 3, I’ll hang around at that number, I’ll move money (vig) for a while, and if I start to get really heavy on a side, I’ve got no problem getting off that number, rather early than late. ... I would suspect there will be more money early on the Patriots.”

The public’s tendency to take the dog on the money line but lay the points with the favorite may result in a move to 3.5, according to Simbal.

“In that case, you may end up coming off the 3, because they’re going to lay the 3.5, and as the book you want the 3 working for you so you can scoop it all. But the Falcons are (one of) the least public teams there is, so I’m not so sure that’s 100 percent going to be the case. It’s a tricky game.”

While one bettor at CG is holding a $5,000 ticket on the Falcons at 40/1 odds, the book still wins just under $1 million on Super Bowl futures with an Atlanta win in two weeks.

“They’re one of the least bet teams all year,” Simbal said.

Simbal suggested the books will be in the same position they’ve been all season – rooting against the Patriots.

“They covered and went ‘over’ in both their playoff games so far,” Simbal said of the Pats. “If they cover and go ‘over’ again, the Patriots are going to be main reason why the books had an ugly, ugly football season.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl LI Opener

Two of the top offenses in the NFL will meet in Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on February 5. Both New England and Atlanta took care of business at home in the conference title games as the Patriots cruised past the Steelers and the Falcons routed the Packers in the final game at the Georgia Dome.

The Patriots are seeking their fifth Super Bowl victory and making their first appearance since beating Seattle two seasons ago, while the Falcons are playing in the Super Bowl for the first time since falling to the Broncos in 1998.

Favorites have rolled so far in the playoffs by winning and covering eight of the first 10 games. The ‘over’ cashed in seven of 10 postseason games, as the Falcons eclipsed the ‘over’ in each of their two playoff victories.

Super Bowl LI from Houston (2/5/17)

Line: Patriots -3 (58)

Movement: New England opened up as three-point favorites at the LVH SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort, while CG Technologies also put out the same opening number.

Offshore books opened New England at -3 as well, with the total of 57 ½. CG put out a total of 58, as a majority of books are hovering between 57 ½ and 58 on their totals.

The total is the highest in Super Bowl history as the previous highest total came in Super Bowl XLIV between the Saints and Colts at 57. The game finished 'under' the total as New Orleans won, 31-17.

Betting Notes: The Patriots and Falcons didn't meet in the regular season, but these teams last hooked up in 2013. New England held off Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, 30-23 as 3-point underdogs, while the game finished 'over' the total of 49.

Neither of these teams played a regular season or playoff game at NRG Stadium, while New England is playing in Houston for the first time since 2015. The Patriots have captured one of their Super Bowl titles in Houston as New England edged Carolina, 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004. Atlanta last played at NRG Stadium in 2011 as the Falcons lost to the Texans, 17-10.

The Falcons split their four interconference games this season against the AFC West, while the Patriots went 3-1 in four games against NFC West opponents.

Super Bowl Betting Notes:

-- The Falcons are the second straight NFC South team to play in the Super Bowl after Carolina lost in last season's Super Bowl.

-- New England owns a 4-4 SU and 2-5-1 ATS record in Super Bowls, while going 0-4 ATS in the favorite role.

-- Brady is playing in his seventh Super Bowl, posting a 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS record as he won in last Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago against the Seahawks, 28-24.

-- In their lone Super Bowl appearance, the Falcons lost to the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXIII by a 34-19 count. Atlanta failed to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs, while the ‘over’ of 52 ½ barely hit.

-- The NFC has won four of the last seven Super Bowls, while the 'over' is 4-2 the last six Super Bowls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Super Bowl 51'

This years Super Bowl 51 held at NRG Stadium in Houston features the AFC Champion New England Patriots and its top-ranked scoring defense (15.7) going up against NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons with the leagues top-ranked scoring offense (34.4). Patriots no strangers to the BIG-GAME are heading to its seventh Super Bowl in the Belichick -Brady era with four titles to its credit. As for Falcons, its their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1998-99 when they lost to Denver.

Patriots dismantling Steelers in the AFC Championship game have reeled of nine consecutive wins and have gone 8-1 against the betting line over that stretch. The Brady-Bunch carry into Houston an NFL-Best 16-SU, 15-3 ATS record. Patriots a spread-covering machine all season were listed as favorites seven times this season away from Foxboro, treating supporters to a 6-1 record at the betting window. Patriots are also a money-making 4-0 ATS vs Falcons in Belichick -Brady era.

Matt Ryan and Co. thrashing Green Bay in the NFC Championship game carry into the contest a 13-5 straight up record, 12-6 mark against the spread. Atlanta receiving points is a role Falcons' will relishes as they were 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, 10-3 ATS the past two campaigns handed points.

A case can be clearly be made for either side. But, can't toss aside the fact Patriots no slouches on offense (28.4) can keep pace with Falcon's high-flying offense. Even more compelling in Patriots favor, its 'Drive for Five' mission along with having one of the best minds in the business walking the side lines (Belichick) and arguably one of NFL's best QB's (Brady).

That said, consider laying the small number, knowing money-making Patriots are 4-1 ATS after a win by 19 or more points, 5-0 ATS streak vs a team with a winning record, 7-0-2, 14-2-3 ATS streaks vs teams off B-2-B SU/ATS wins, 6-3 ATS vs the NFC South.

In this best 'D' vs the best 'O' affair the betting market currently has Patriots -3.0 point favorites but the price to lay those -3.0 points with New England has gone from the standard -$1.10 up to as high a -$1.20 in some shops. So, best shop around paying attention to price. As always best of luck but above all, enjoy the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Insights from oddsmakers on the opening betting numbers for Super Bowl 51
By PATRICK EVERSON

Super Bowl 51 will feature a franchise with boatloads of Super Bowl experience against one making just its second appearance in the big game – and first in nearly two decades. But the bettors are here, every year.

But the Super Bowl draws in far more than just the serious, professional bettors, and more than the regular folks who just like to have a little action each week. Indeed, the football fiesta attracts many first-time bettors, a pattern sure to repeat itself in this contest.

So we will keep all three of those types of bettors in mind as it delves into the opening pointspread and point total, and where bettors are already putting their money on the Feb. 5 showdown in Houston.

Following is a look at the matchup, along with expert insights from Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the renowned Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Super Bowl 51

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3)

New England is no stranger to these parts, heading to its seventh Super Bowl since the 2001 season and ninth appearance overall, with four victories to its credit. Tom Brady and Co. plowed past Pittsburgh 36-17 on Sunday night, easily covering the pointspread as a 5.5-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots are now 16-2 straight up this year and 15-3 against the pointspread, leading the NFL in both categories.

Atlanta is in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1998-99 season, when it lost to Denver 34-19 as a 7.5-point underdog in the title game. The Falcons advanced by hammering Green Bay 44-21 in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Matt Ryan and Co. are now 13-5 straight up this year and 12-6 against the spread, winning their last six games in a row on the scoreboard, while going 5-1 against those Vegas oddsmakers. But counterpart Brady and the Pats have won nine in a row and gone 8-1 against the pointspread in that stretch.

“No surprises here,” Kornegay said. “After Atlanta’s impressive wood-shedding of the Packers, we were thinking of New England -2.5. But New England looks just as impressive, so -3 it is.”

For those new to the betting game, that means New England is a 3-point favorite, meaning that to win a pointspread bet on the Patriots, they must win by more than 3 points. Conversely, Atlanta is +3, or a 3-point underdog, meaning to win a pointspread bet on the Falcons, they must lose by less than 3 points, or of course win outright. On a standard bet for either team, for each $1.10 wagered, the bettor would win $1 – or, to extrapolate that out, an $11 winning bet would be worth $10, for a total payout of $21 (the original $11 bet, plus $10 in winnings).

And if the pointspread just isn’t your thing, you can also simply bet that a team will win the game outright, which is termed a moneyline bet and has its own “price” – how much you need to bet to collect $1 or $10 or $100, etc. For New England, as the favorite, the price is -160 at the Superbook, meaning it takes a $16 bet to win $10. Since Atlanta is the underdog, the price is a more enticing +140, meaning a $10 winning wager nets an additional $14.

Bettors can also wager on the total, which is the number of combined points of the Super Bowl participants. Kornegay opened the Superbook’s total at 58, a record high for the Super Bowl. Less than an hour after Kornegay posted his pointspread, total and moneyline numbers, bettors were already making their opinions known.

“In the real early going, the first 40 minutes, 70 percent of (pointspread) bets were on New England,” Kornegay said, while noting bettors were also picking the total to go over 58 – so much so that the Superbook quickly moved that number to 59. “It’s a little nerve-wracking, knowing there’s been a lot of scoring in these playoff games.”

The past two weekends – in four divisional-round games and Sunday’s two conference championships – the over has gone 5-1.

 

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Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.

The NFC owns a 26-24 edge over the AFC in the first 49 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both have five.

The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 33-15 straight up and 26-18-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 25-24. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.

In the 2014-15 Super Bowl between New England and Seattle, the closing consensus line was pick 'em, which was the first in the NFL finale. The Patriots rallied for a 28-24 victory over the Seahawks.

Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.

The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.

Super Bowl (1967-2017)

Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result

LI 2017 Houston, TX Atlanta vs. New England - - -

L 2016 Santa Clara, CA Carolina vs. Denver Carolina -5 (43.5) Denver 24 Carolina 10 Underdog-Under

XLIX 2015 Glendale, AZ Seattle vs. New England Pick 'em (47.5) New England 28 Seattle 24 Over

XLVIII 2014 East Rutherford, NJ Seattle vs. Denver Denver -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over

XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over

XLVI 2012 Indianapolis, IN N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -2.5 (53) N.Y. Giants 21 New England 17 Underdog-Under

XLV 2011 Arlington, TX Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh Green Bay -3 (45) Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 Favorite-Over

XLIV 2010 Miami, FL New Orleans vs. Indianapolis Indianapolis -5 (57) New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 Underdog-Under

XLIII 2009 Tampa, FL Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Pittsburgh -7 (46) Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23 Underdog-Over

XLII 2008 Glendale, AZ N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -12 (55) N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14 Underdog-Under

XLI 2007 Miami, FL Indianapolis vs. Chicago Indianapolis -7 (47) Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 Favorite-Under

XL 2006 Detroit, MI Pittsburgh vs. Seattle Pittsburgh -4 (47) Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10 Favorite-Under

XXXIX 2005 Jacksonville, FL New England vs. Philadelphia New England -7 (46.5) New England 24 Philadelphia 21 Underdog-Under

XXXVIII 2004 Houston, TX New England vs. Carolina New England -7 (37.5) New England 32 Carolina 29 Underdog-Over

XXXVII 2003 San Diego, CA Tampa Bay vs. Oakland Oakland -4 (44) Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21 Underdog-Over

XXXVI 2002 New Orleans, LA New England vs. St. Louis St. Louis -14 (53) New England 20 St. Louis 17 Underdog-Under

XXXV 2001 Tampa, FL Baltimore vs. N.Y. Giants Baltimore -3 (33) Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7 Favorite-Over

XXXIV 2000 Atlanta, GA St. Louis vs. Tennessee St. Louis -7 (45) St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16 Push-Under

XXXIII 1999 Miami, FL Denver vs. Atlanta Denver -7.5 (52.5) Denver 34 Atlanta 19 Favorite-Over

XXXII 1998 San Diego, CA Denver vs. Green Bay Green Bay -11 (49) Denver 31 Green Bay 24 Underdog-Over

XXXI 1997 New Orleans, LA Green Bay vs. New England Green Bay -14 (49) Green Bay 35 New England 21 Push-Over

XXX 1996 Tempe, AZ Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Dallas -13.5 (51) Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Under

XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 (53.5) San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over

XXVIII 1994 Atlanta, GA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -10.5 (50.5) Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 Favorite-Under

XXVII 1993 Pasadena, CA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -6.5 (44.5) Dallas 52 Buffalo 17 Favorite-Over

XXVI 1992 Minneapolis, MN Washington vs. Buffalo Washington -7 (49) Washington 37 Buffalo 24 Favorite-Over

XXV 1991 Tampa, FL N.Y. Giants vs. Buffalo Buffalo -7 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19 Underdog-Under

XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over

XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under

XXII 1988 San Diego, CA Washington vs. Denver Denver -3 (47) Washington 42 Denver 10 Underdog-Over

XXI 1987 Pasadena, CA N.Y. Giants vs. Denver N.Y. Giants -9.5 (40) N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20 Favorite-Over

XX 1986 New Orleans, LA Chicago vs. New England Chicago -10 (37.5) Chicago 46 New England 10 Favorite-Over

XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 (53.5) San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over

XVIII 1984 Tampa, FL L.A. Raiders vs. Washington Washington -3 (48) L.A. 38 Washington 9 Favorite-Under

XVII 1983 Pasadena, CA Washington vs. Miami Miami -3 (36.5) Washington 27 Miami 17 Underdog-Over

XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under

XV 1981 New Orleans, LA Oakland vs. Philadelphia Philadelphia -3 (37.5) Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under

XIV 1980 Pasadena, CA Pittsburgh vs. L.A. Rams Pittsburgh -10.5 (36) Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19 Favorite-Over

XIII 1979 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -3.5 (37) Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31 Favorite-Over

XII 1978 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Denver Dallas -6 (39) Dallas 27 Denver 10 Favorite-Under

XI 1977 Pasadena, CA Oakland vs. Minnesota Oakland -4 (38) Oakland 34 Minnesota 14 Favorite-Over

X 1976 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -7 (36) Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 Underdog-Over

IX 1975 New Orleans, LA Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota Pittsburgh -3 (33) Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Favorite-Under

VIII 1974 Houston, TX Miami vs. Minnesota Miami -6.5 (33) Miami 24 Minnesota 7 Favorite-Under

VII 1973 Los Angeles, CA Miami vs. Washington Miami -1 (33) Miami 14 Washington 7 Favorite-Under

VI 1972 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Miami Dallas -6 (34) Dallas 24 Miami 3 Favorite-Under

V 1971 Miami, FL Baltimore vs. Dallas Baltimore -2.5 (36) Baltimore 16 Dallas 13 Favorite-Under

IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under

III 1969 Miami, FL N.Y. Jets vs. Baltimore Baltimore -18 (40) N.Y. Jets 16 Baltimore 7 Underdog-Under

II 1968 Miami, FL Green Bay vs. Oakland Green Bay -13.5 (43) Green Bay 33 Oakland 14 Favorite-Over

I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Early betting for Super Bowl 51 is light, mostly Patriots and the Over
By PATRICK EVERSON

One day after the Super Bowl 51 matchup was set, sportsbooks weren’t seeing a lot of wagers. After all, the Feb. 5 clash is still nearly two weeks out. But there were some early indicators of where things might be heading. We talk about the action with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Nevada, and Scott Kaminsky, sports director.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: -3 (-120)

New England (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) has been a spread-covering machine all season, with the best record against the oddsmakers of any team in the NFL. Sunday’s AFC Championship Game was no different, with the Patriots rolling 36-17 as a 5.5-point home favorite. It was the Pats’ ninth consecutive victory, and they’ve gone 8-1 ATS in that stretch.

Atlanta (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS), with its prolific offense, has been tearing it up lately too, scoring 33 points or more in each game of its current six-game win streak (5-1 ATS) and breaking 40 points three times. One of those instances came in Sunday’s 44-21 dousing of Green Bay as a 6.5-point home chalk in the NFC Championship Game.

But early on, at least, bettors are leaning toward New England. William Hill US, which operates dozens of books in the Las Vegas area and more than a hundred throughout Nevada, hasn’t moved off its opening line of 3. However, the price to lay those 3 points with New England has gone from the standard -110 up to -120.

“We’ve got a little bit of Patriot money -3, and Patriot money on the moneyline,” Bogdanovich said. “Not enough to get off 3, but I know we’re gonna need the Falcons at some time, so maybe try to get a little Falcon money here. If they want to take +3 (even money), they’re more than welcome to.”

“I’m seeing what other (betting) houses are doing,” Kaminsky said, noting William Hill and others going to -120. “We’ve got a little bit more on New England right now, but it’s really insignificant at this time. I think there’s enough betting interest on both sides from the public. If the line goes anywhere, it’ll go to 3.5, but even if it does, it’s not that big of a deal.

“I’m not thinking about moving that number for quite a while, unless a wiseguy comes in to move it. I think the number is a good number.”

The only move has been on the total, which opened at 57 and is now at 58.5. William Hill opened 58.5 and moved to 59 by Sunday night. Kaminsky said the total, in conjunction with the huge proposition bet menu coming from all the sportsbooks, will be key to the outcome on his side of the counter.

“I don’t think anything bad can happen if the game stays under,” he said. “If the game goes over, a lot of props could go over – rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards. There’s a big snowball effect if 68, 70 points are scored in this game. If it’s New England and the over, now the books are gonna have to do well on the props. Sometimes having a good day in the props can soften the blow.”

Regardless, Bogdanovich reminded that the overwhelming bulk of Super Bowl cash won’t come in until the last two days. The line might not move at all – and the total might stick around where it currently sits – until that money arrives.

“Usually, once we put the line up, it sits for a while,” he said. “I could see it getting to 3.5 the weekend of the game – 95 percent of the money comes in then.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting total for Super Bowl 51 already highest ever, could climb higher
By PATRICK EVERSON

Sportsbooks around Las Vegas, throughout Nevada and at offshore sites set a Super Bowl standard with their opening numbers on the total. Some books started at 57, just above the record 56.5 closing total between the Saints and the Colts in 2010. Others weighed in between 57.5 and 58.5. And all those shops have already seen the total tilt upward for the Feb. 5 clash between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

Johnny Avello was among those who saw the writing on the wall, not bothering to start at 57 or 58, instead jumping right in at 59 during the fourth quarter of Sunday night’s AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Pittsburgh. Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, offered a pretty succinct explanation.

“I’ll tell you what went into it: How about the Atlanta Falcons the last six games, averaging 39 points a game, and the Patriots over the last four or so averaging 37 points a game,” Avello said. “That’s what went into it.”

It’s been the story of the playoffs, as the over has gone 7-3 this postseason, including 5-1 over the past two weekends. Both of Sunday’s conference championship games eclipsed the total – 60 in the NFC final between Atlanta and Green Bay, 49.5 in the AFC final – as bettors continued to hammer the books by betting the over and cashing out.

“It’s a little nerve-wracking, knowing there’s been a lot of scoring in these games,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, which opened the total at 58 and was at 59 within an hour Sunday night. “I don’t remember posting a higher number on the total for a Super Bowl.”

Indeed, that’s because he hadn’t. But the record-setting total isn’t scaring bettors away from the over – at least the public bettors, anyway.

“We’re a little high on the Patriots (at -3) and a little high on the over,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, which opened the total at 58 but fairly quickly moved to 59 at its more than 100 shops around Nevada. “The public likes to play the over, and they’ve been paid off handsomely in these playoffs betting the over. I think we’re in a world of overs – NBA, college basketball, the NFL. People have the over on their mind.”

Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage, said his shop and the rest of MGM Resorts’ books opened at 59 and got pushed to 59.5 Sunday night before getting a speck of relief with a sharp under wager.

“This morning, one of the professional bettors took us back to 59,” Stoneback said, adding he doesn’t think sharp action on the under will withstand an expected public deluge on the over. “The total is always a little bit inflated because of it being the Super Bowl. I don’t think the public is even gonna be looking at the under. The Super Bowl is one game where the public money can overcome sharp money.”

And in this case, it’s not as if it’s bad strategy.

“They’re riding the streak, filling their pockets by betting the over,” Stoneback said. “They’re not gonna change their way now.”

“The total might be a little light, so I will move the total up quickly if someone so much as sneezes,” Kaminsky said Sunday evening. And in short order, he then bumped that number to 58 and then 58.5 by Monday.

“Given the efficiency of these offenses, we did not hesitate making this the highest total in Super Bowl history,” said Scott Cooley, odds consultant. “The public bettors won’t think twice about betting the over, but we do expect to see some smart money on the under.”

The issue is whether it will be enough sharp money. As Stoneback said, he doesn’t think that will be the case at The Mirage and other MGM shops, and he wouldn’t be surprised if it reaches 60.

“Super Bowl weekend, when the public comes in – they were betting the over on the Packers-Falcons,” he said, while pointing out that the over trend, especially parlays of favorites and the over, has been hitting the books hard throughout the NFL season. “To me, it feels like college football now, running up and down the field scoring. At least it seems that way when you need the under. In 30 years, I’ve never seen a season like this.”

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is to see the total rise beyond 60. Tony Nevill, sportsbook director, sees that as a distinct possibility.

“Will it break 60? I think so, yeah,” Nevill said, noting parlays will be the key. “You’ve just got to figure bettors will take Atlanta moneyline and tie it to the over, and other folks will take Tom Brady and the pointspread and tie it to the over.

“And of course, we’ll all be hoping for Brady to win by 1.”

In a low-scoring game, of course!

 

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Six mistakes Super Bowl bettors make
By JASON LOGAN

The bigger the game the bigger the action - and unfortunately, the bigger the bloopers. Whether you're a seasoned sports bettor or wagering for the first time, the Super Bowl has a unique set of pitfalls to look out for. Jason Logan points out these mistakes before it's too late.

Betting the Big Game?

Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.

But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their god damn mind.

There’s a little less than two weeks before the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots showdown in Houston on February 5. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.

Here are six mistakes Super Bowl bettors can make:

You bet too early/too late

If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl LI, you’ve seen the Patriots go off at anything from -2.5 to -4, after kicking the snot out of the Pittsburgh in the AFC title game.

If you’re a Pats backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread (which was offered before the AFC Championship was even over), you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Atlanta +2.5 and watched free points pass you by.

First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 97 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.

Patriots fans, you may want to grab the -3 on your beloved team now. Books took early money on Belichick's boys and New England is the most public team in all of football - maybe in all of sports betting - so it may not get any better than giving a clean field goal. Falcons backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get a half-point hook on that line or maybe even Atlanta +4 before showtime.

In the past two Super Bowls, there has been some very aggressive line movement. So hold tight, you might get what you want. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.

Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.

Prop contradictions

The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Atlanta to cover, then who and what will get it there.

If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.

The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.

If you think Matt Ryan continues the hot hand and lights the Patriots up for massive gains, then don’t load up on the Over in the Falcons' rushing yard props.

Believe New England will slow the pace and eat up time of possession with a run-heavy playbook? You may want to shy away from Julian Edleman's Over on total receptions prop and instead think Over for how many carries LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis will have.

Didn’t pay attention to prices

One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.

Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.

On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.

Halftime lines/chasing

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.

Halftime lines hold value, as do in-game live betting odds, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.

But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.

As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager or live bet placed in sheer panic.

Too much media

Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.

If your knee-jerk reaction was “Atlanta +3 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.

Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish. Sharps will be on the Patriots one day and the Falcons the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.

And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a field-goal spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.

Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Game of Thrones spoilers. I'm only on Season 2, damn it!

You sucked all the fun out of it

If you’re a fan of the Patriots or Falcons – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until Week 1.

Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.

And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Tom Brady Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.

Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show than the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

One Vegas book moves Super Bowl spread off key field-goal number
By PATRICK EVERSON

At least one oddsmaker in Vegas is shaking things up a bit with the line on the Super Bowl, and has been doing so since first putting the game on his board Sunday night, during the fourth quarter of New England’s AFC Championship Game victory over Pittsburgh. We update you on the action with insights from Tony Nevill, sportsbook director at Treasure Island on the Las Vegas Strip, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5

New England (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) opened as a 3-point favorite for Super Bowl 51 at pretty much every shop around Las Vegas on Sunday evening. But Nevill upped the ante and opened Patriots -3.5. Within a few minutes, Nevill had already knocked New England’s price down to even money, and within 40 minutes, the number was at 3, mirroring everyone else.

However, Treasure Island went back up to 3.5 for a couple of hours Monday night, and did so again Tuesday afternoon. Nevill would like to make it stick, so he’s enticing New England bettors with a +105 price and trying to get Atlanta bettors’ attention with the +3.5, at a bit more expensive -125.

“Our action was pretty much balanced, but I felt like for us to be put in the position of having winners and losers on Super Bowl Sunday, it was best for us to go up to 3.5, and adjust the money on the pointspreads,” Nevill said. “I want to reward the Patriots player willing to lay the extra half-point, by giving them +105. At the same time, Falcons players get that half point, but have to lay the dollar and a quarter to win a dollar.”

Things have been active, as well. Cooley hasn’t yet moved the line off the opener of Patriots -3, but the juice has bounced around quite a bit. New England has been as low as +100 (even money) to a high of -115; conversely, Atlanta +3 has been as high as -120 and as low as -105.

On Tuesday afternoon, the line was flat, with both teams at the standard -110.

“We've seen significant action on both sides of the gambling gamut. This is shaping up to be a really good Super Bowl as far as betting purposes,” Cooley said. “We move up on one side, and then see action on the other minutes later.”

And that movement isn’t just with the pointspread, but with the moneyline, as well.

“Thus far, we've moved from -150 to -160 on the Pats moneyline,” Cooley said, while noting that puts Atlanta at +140 on the moneyline. As at many books, the total is getting hit early, too. “The total has ticked up a point since opening, from 58.5 to 59.5, as most of the public is on the over.”

Treasure Island opened the total at 58 and moved to 59 by late Monday morning, but hasn’t gone any further yet. Still, Nevill remains an outlier with his pointspread offering of 3.5, and he thinks bettors of either team could find that intriguing.

“Value is in the perception of the person buying the ticket,” he said. “I think I can draw balanced action at -3.5/plus a nickel, and at +3.5/minus a quarter, hopefully to create more winners and losers, in case the game lands on 3. We may go back to 3, but for now, we’ll stay at 3.5 and just move the vigorish.”

 

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Five things you didn’t know about Super Bowl betting
By JASON LOGAN

Super Bowl is one of the rare times on the sports calendar that everyone – gambler or not – knows the pointspread.

Big Game betting has massive mainstream appeal, as stories flood the news wires about the Super Bowl odds and who Las Vegas thinks will win it all – or at least cover the spread. But in that fleeting moment of understanding also comes plenty of misunderstanding.

Even seasoned Vegas veterans may not know these five facts about Super Bowl betting:

Public has the power

The Super Bowl is a unique market in itself and unlike the entire regular season and even the preceding playoff games, the line movement is not dictated by the opinions of respected big-time bettors – also known as sharps or wiseguys – but rather by the general public.

Super Bowl is the most popular game of the year, and the $10, $100 and $1,000 wagers from your Average Joe stacks up a lot quicker than action from sharp bettors.

Generally, books will be quicker to adjust a spread or total (in order to help balance action on either side) if wiseguys make a strong opinion on one particular bet. However, with two weeks to take wagers and knowing the betting public will hammer this game with both fists come Super Bowl weekend, sportsbooks are far less likely to react to early sharp money and move the Super Bowl odds.

What doesn’t happen in Vegas

One of the most common misconceptions about Super Bowl betting – and sports betting in general – is that you can wager on just about anything in Las Vegas.

And Super Bowl prop betting has become a very popular talking point in recent years, thanks to crazy wagers like betting on the halftime show, national anthem and color of the Gatorade bath. Well, good luck finding those wagers at any sportsbook inside Nevada state lines.

The Nevada State Gaming Control Board is very sticky about what you can and can’t bet on, and unless that prop is defined in the box score of the game or decided on by a legitimate source, books can’t offer odds on it. Heck, they just offered Super Bowl MVP odds for the first time last season.

If you see odds on things like “How many times will Donald Trump tweet during the game?” or “Will Lady Gaga have a wardrobe malfunction?”, those are coming from online sportsbooks overseas or offshore. They aren’t limited to strict regulations and basically grade these props on their own accord. So winning bets on the length of the national anthem, for example, could vary from book to book depending on how they timed it and graded it.

Those so-called "Vegas odds" you love to talk about so much are more like "Costa Rica odds".

You aren’t betting $1 million on the coin flip

We’ve all heard the wild wagering stories of the high roller who wagered $1 million on some whacky-ass prop. It didn’t happen.

Sportsbooks protect themselves from losses when it comes to unpredictable props – that’s how they keep the lights on. They don’t take risks. Things like the coin flip prop have tight limits, even for a game as big as the Super Bowl.

Betting “Heads” or “Tails” comes with a cost, with books setting the juice (price of making a bet) as high as -130. That means you must wager $1.30 for every dollar you want to win. And that bet size maxes out anywhere from $500 to $2,000, depending on where you wager. So even if you hit your coin flip play with a max bet, you’re only looking at a payout of $1,538.46.

$1 million bets are rare – even for Super Bowl

While we’re on the topic of $1 million wagers, these aren’t as common as you think. Every so often a whale wonders into the Super Bowl betting handle, dropping a cool milli on the Big Game. But books don’t have to accept that bet, and some don’t want to.

The stars have to align, somewhat, to place a $1 million wager. You can’t just walk into a sportsbook with a briefcase full of money and lay the Patriots. These $1 million bets are often called in ahead of time or arranged through a casino host.

The sportsbook must have a handle (total pool of money bet on the game) that can balance that type of action, and they must also get approval from their respective “powers that be” to take it. The person placing the bet is also vetted, and is often a known casino player with good standing and accounts with that property. There are always rumblings of $1 million bets coming in during Super Bowl, but most of the time these wagers never show up.

As for putting $1 million on the Super Bowl at online books, there are a small handful of shops that will take that type of money and even fewer that would admit it – as to avoid showing up on the radar of headhunting anti-gambling government task forces.

Frantic 48 hours

The Super Bowl odds have two weeks to draw action but like a slacking college student cramming for exams, most bettors wait until the last minute.

Sportsbooks estimate that about 98 percent of the total betting handle on the Big Game comes in the final 48 hours before kickoff – Saturday and Sunday. As game buzz reaches a fever pitch and tourists pile into Las Vegas, sportsbooks in the Silver State are slammed during Super Bowl weekend and online books are constantly dealing with a flood of web traffic.

There was $132.5 million bet on Super Bowl 50 in Nevada last year and an estimated $4.2 billion in wagers on the NFL finale in the United States alone, through online shops and illegal bookie operations. That means that in that final two days, $4.116 billion was wagered on Super Bowl.

That’s $87,750,000 per hour.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How wiseguys are sizing up the Super Bowl LI betting odds
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out and the Super Bowl is no different.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (-3, 58.5)

In the 1998 season, the Falcons were en route to their first Super Bowl appearance and that run included a 41-10 whooping of the Patriots. But that was pre-Gillette Stadium, pre-Bill Belichick, pre-Tom Brady and pre-Patriots Dynasty. This time around the Falcons – who were crushed by Denver in that Super Bowl – will be facing a New England team that has practically owned the event since Atlanta made it only appearance.

The Patriots have basically laughed at the roadblocks that have been placed in front of them this season:

Brady gave up the ghost on DeflateGate, accepted a 4-game suspension, New England plugged in its untested rookie backup QB (and even the backup’s backup), and still rolled to a 3-1 start in taking control of the division. Arriving late on the scene in Week 5 may be the only thing to keep the MVP off Brady’s shelf. He is 39-years-old, in excellent physical shape, playing better than ever and is talking about playing five or six more years.

Does anyone even remember that Rob Gronkowski (back operation) is out for the season? The best tight end in football gone. In New England it’s next man up, scrap the two-tight end offense, and move forward with Martellus Bennett. No biggie.

Try taking two of your most athletic defensive players (Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins, both traded), and actually getting better on that side of the ball. In New England, it’s what you do.

Despite it all, New England has won. And won. And won. The second-best team in the AFC, Pittsburgh, left Foxboro last weekend after the Patriots had taken their lunch money in an easy AFC title game victory.

Can the Falcons calm themselves down, get to work and defeat a Pats team that has been to the Super Bowl six times since the Falcons made their only appearance?

Expected MVP Matt Ryan has emerged from the middle of the quarterback-pack to become among the best in the league, wideout Julio Jones continues to turn heads despite a toe injury and the Atlanta defense – 25th overall during the regular season after yielding 152 points in the first four games – made life miserable for both the Seahawks and Packers in the playoffs. The ingredients are there.

The oddsmakers have looked at all this and made the Patriots a field-goal pick, with a hefty total of 58.5. Early bettors figure that this is just about right, because there has been just about equal money on both teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl action light in Vegas as operators await flood of bettors next week
By PATRICK EVERSON

At sportsbooks around Las Vegas, Super Bowl action is still fairly limited, awaiting the storm of customers bringing a deluge of money later next week. But there’s still enough cash being put down to necessitate adjustments, and the proposition bet market is percolating too. We talk about the latest action with Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3; Move: +3 (-105)

Like most shops around town, the Golden Nugget is seeing mostly Patriots money early on. Miller held steady at Patriots -3 (-110) the past three days, but Wednesday afternoon had to at least adjust that price. He moved the Pats to -115, with Atlanta -105 on the takeback.

“It’s 5/1 more Patriots money right now,” Miller said, adding he’s got several sizable wagers at New England -3. “I took a hit at Patriots -3 this morning, so I went to -15. I’ve got some sharp money on the 3 flat. That money I got this morning was pretty sharp, and I still think I’ll get sharps at 15.”

Miller said the money he has on the Falcons at +3 is all public money and that he hasn’t gotten any big wagers on Atlanta.

“I might go to (Patriots) -120,” he said. “I already took a hit at a dollar fifteen. I’ll go to a dollar twenty if I keep taking hits.”

At some point, though perhaps not until next week, Miller sees the line moving to 3.5.

“I think it’ll close 3.5, too. I think you’ll see that number get hit quite a bit,” he said. “Once it gets to 3.5, we’ll see what the sharps are gonna do with that.”

Meanwhile, offshore. the line has been stable the past day at 3 (-110). And while Vegas bettors eagerly await all the proposition bets going up at sportsbooks around town on Thursday and Friday, sportsbooks are already taking in enough cash to cause significant price adjustments – and on some rather humorous offerings.

For example: Will halftime performer Lady Gaga have blonde/yellow hair color? “Yes” opened at -170 and has blown up to -500. On whether the provocative singer will say “Trump” during her show, “yes” opened at -140, but there have been reports that the NFL is trying to dissuade her from mentioning the new president, moving “no” to a healthy -235 favorite.

“The Trump prop odds maybe have been a bit hopeful to start,” Cooley said. “But you know the NFL, if they tell her not to stir up any controversy, they usually have the final say. But hey, this is the wildest of wild cards we’re talking about here. Who knows what she’ll do when that time comes.”

Indeed, so taking the +175 on “yes” might not be a bad wager at all.

Cooley’s shop is also offering props on how often the words “Deflategate” or “dynasty” will be uttered. Deflategate opened under 2.5 at a price of -110, and that has since shot up to -450; dynasty has jumped the fence from over 3.5 at -130 to under 3.5 now a -300 fave.

“It seems inevitable that ‘Deflategate’ and ‘dynasty’ will be said, but players are siding with the under,” Cooley said. “It all depends on the flow of conversation and the game with this kind of stuff. If the announcers are killing time, the over is more likely to hit.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl LI is quickly approaching as bettors continue to handicap the upcoming matchup between the Patriots and Falcons.

Earlier this week, oddsmakers opened odds on who will win the Most Valuable Player for the finale.

To no surprise, the top betting choices are quarterbacks Tom Brady (5/6) and Matt Ryan (9/5). In the first 50 Super Bowls, the quarterback has captured the award 27 times and five of the last seven MVPs in the Super Bowl were quarterbacks.

Last year, Denver outside linebacker Von Miller was named the Most Valuable Player. Miller cashed at a 18/1 price (Bet $100 to win $1,800) as he was the tenth defensive player named the MVP in the Super Bowl.

Running backs have won the award seven times, the last instance coming in 1998 when Denver running back Terrell Davis was named the MVP. Atlanta's Devonta Freeman is listed a 15/1 betting choice, while New England RB's LaGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis have 20/1 odds.

Wide receivers have been named MVP six times, three of those winners coming in the last 11 years. The top betting choice for wide outs is Atlanta standout Julio Jones at 10/1, as the next highest receivers are New England's Chris Hogan and Jones' teammate Mohamed Sanu at 40/1 apiece.

Listed below are all odds to win 2017 Super Bowl LI MVP.

Tom Brady (Patriots) 5/6 (Bet $120 to win $100)
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 9/5 (Bet $100 to win $180)
Julio Jones (Falcons) 10/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,000)
Julian Edelman (Patriots) 15/1
Devonta Freeman (Falcons) 20/1
Dion Lewis (Patriots) 20/1
LaGarrette Blount (Patriots) 20/1
Tevin Coleman (Falcons) 30/1
Vic Beasley Jr (Falcons) 35/1
Chris Hogan (Patriots) 40/1
Mohamed Sanu (Falcons) 40/1
Logan Ryan (Patriots) 50/1
Martellus Bennett (Patriots) 70/1
Danny Amendola (Patriots) 75/1
Malcolm Butler (Patriots) 75/1
Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) 75/1
Devin McCourty (Patriots) 100/1
James White (Patriots) 100/1
Malcolm Mitchell (Patriots) 100/1
Matt Bryant (Falcons) 100/1
Patrick Chung (Patriots) 100/1
Donta Hightower (Patriots) 150/1
Matt Lengel (Patriots) 150/1
Taylor Gabriel (Falcons) 150/1
Keanu Neal (Falcons) 200/1
Michael Floyd (Patriots) 250/1
Chris Long (Patriots) 300/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lack of sharp action indicates wiseguys likely waiting for Falcons +3.5
By PATRICK EVERSON

Even with limited line movement so far on Super Bowl 51, there’s always something to report on a game of this magnitude, as every sportsbook operator has a different approach to what they’re seeing so far. We talk about the latest action with Jason Simbal, vice president of CG Technology in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3; Move: +3 (-105)

New England (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) is drawing most of the early attention at CG’s books, including those at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian. It’s not surprising, as that’s been the case at pretty much every sportsbook. CG is far from even considering going to 3.5, but over the past day or so did adjust the Patriots’ price to -115 at the steady line of -3, moving Atlanta to +3 (-105).

“We’ve seen a lot more Patriot action come in early on here throughout this first week,” Simbal said. “In fact, there’s been two times as many bets on the Patriots and about 1.7, 1.8 times more money on New England.”

Simbal indicated the public is pushing the Pats, but there is a little sharp action.

“It’s kind of a mix of both. Mostly public money, no huge bets,” he said. “We haven’t taken any bets in the six-figure range, we’re not even close to that yet. Generally, those won’t come in until we get closer to kickoff. So it’s been a lot of kind of the smaller accumulation of bets that have really added up on New England, which forced us to go from -110 to -115.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five simple rules for dipping your toes in Super Bowl betting
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Occam’s razor is a philosophical principle that, in layman’s terms, essentially states that the simplest answer is generally the better answer.

With a full two weeks separating Conference Championship weekend from Super Bowl Sunday, it’s easy to suffer from paralysis by over-analysis in regards to the myriad wagering opportunities the sports books present for this most holy of gambling holidays. Think about it: We aren’t even a full five days removed from the AFC and NFC Championship games and yet, the opening point spread of New England -3 over Atlanta for Super Bowl LI has already been dissected and discussed ad nauseam. And that’s before either team has even touched down in Houston to begin their preparations.

So the purpose of this week’s NFL column is really quite simple: Take a deep breath, exercise patience and commence the process of dipping our toes into the water. What follows are my initial thoughts as to some integral angles worth pursing in a more in-depth fashion next week once we commences to roll out the absolute best Super Bowl LI gambling coverage available anywhere on the planet.

1. Experience: The Patriots enter Super Bowl LI with a roster that includes 21 players with prior Super Bowl experience, an architect in Bill Belichick who will be coaching his 36th playoff game and a quarterback in Tom Brady who will be starting his 34th postseason contest. Conversely, the Falcons boast a roster with just four players who have prior Super Bowl experience, a head coach in Dan Quinn who is in just his second season on the job and a quarterback in Matt Ryan who is 3-4 lifetime in the postseason. New England knows how to handle the demands that come from friends, family, the media, etc. in the build-up to a Super Bowl appearance. Atlanta does not. Edge: New England.

2. Julio Jones: The six-year veteran wideout ranked second in the NFL this season in receiving yards (1,409) and has been En fuego during the playoffs with 15 receptions for 247 yards and three scores through just eight quarters of action. But if there’s one thing we know about Bill Belichick, it’s that he’s a master at taking away an opponent’s top offensive weapon. In this case, that likely means playing man-to-man coverage on Jones with either cornerback Logan Ryan or Eric Rowe while simultaneously rolling a safety over the top to double-team the explosive Atlanta wide receiver. Whether or not Jones can fight through the double teams on Super Bowl Sunday is irrelevant. Instead, focus on the fact that Atlanta wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel will benefit from facing single coverage for the better part of professional football’s ultimate game. And you know what that means, right? Yep, we’re most likely going to bet the OVERS on all receptions and receiving yards props involving both Sanu and Taylor.

3. Unstoppable force vs. Immovable object: February 5 will mark the eighth time in Super Bowl history in which the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (Atlanta) goes head-to-head with the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (New England). In the previous seven title game encounters between the top offense and the top defense, the top defense has posted a record of 6-1 both straight-up and against-the-spread. Take a look:

*Top defense listed in bold.

2014: Seattle 43, Denver (-2.5) 8
1991: New York Giants 20, Buffalo (-7) 19
1990: San Francisco (-12) 55, Denver 10
1985: San Francisco (-3.5) 38, Miami 16
1979: Pittsburgh (-3.5) 35, Dallas 31
1970: Kansas City 23, Minnesota (-12) 7
1967: Green Bay (-14) 35, Kansas City 10

4. Points, points and more points: Super Bowl LI currently features a total of 58.5 points which, if it holds, would be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history. From a historical perspective, the OVER has cashed in four of the last six Super Bowls. In addition, the OVER is 4-1 in the five previous Super Bowls that have featured a matchup between the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 scoring defense (no total was offered for Super Bowl I). From a team perspective, the UNDER went 10-8 in New England games this year while the OVER went 15-2-1 in Atlanta contests this season. If you’re looking to make a contrarian play on the UNDER, you can go ahead and wait until Super Bowl Sunday, as the betting public will no doubt drive the current total higher prior to kickoff.

5. The road less traveled: There’s no such thing as a “home team” when it comes to playing at a neutral site. There is, however, such a thing as a “road team” when it comes to playing at a neutral site, as each franchise will find itself in an unfamiliar city sleeping in unfamiliar beds while playing in an unfamiliar stadium. So don’t waste any of your precious time over the next week studying home trends. Instead, focus on how both New England and Atlanta performed away from their home confines this season. In regards to the Patriots, New England went 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road in 2016 while winning by an average of 12.6 points per game. As for Atlanta, the Falcons went 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by an average of 9.5 points per contest. The edge here may lie with the Patriots, but both of these organizations performed well above the norm when on the road in 2016.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl LI line holding steady in calm before betting storm
By PATRICK EVERSON

It was as slow a Saturday during football season as you’ll ever see at the Las Vegas sportsbooks – because short of the Pro Bowl, there is no football this weekend. And some would argue that even with the NFL’s annual all-star game on Sunday, there is no football this weekend.

Seriously, though, it’s the calm before the storm of Super Bowl week. We check in on where the action is for the big game, with insights from Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point just south of the Vegas Strip; Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage; and Scott Kaminsky, sports director.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: none

New England had the best SU and ATS records in the NFL this year, at 14-2 on your scoreboard and a stout 13-3 against those oddsmakers. That trend has continued in the playoffs, with the Patriots now 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS, and that’s had early Super Bowl action favoring Tom Brady and Co.

But the South Point is sticking on Patriots -3 – as is just about every other shop – and isn’t adjusting the juice off -110 either.

“We don’t move the juice,” Andrews said of his book’s pointspread policy. “So we’re still real high on bets at New England -3. But we did get quite a bit back on Atlanta on the moneyline. We’ve been all over the place on the moneyline, up and down. They’re also betting Atlanta on some of the pointspread props, the first half and such.”

The Mirage’s number is also stuck on New England -3 (-110).

“I was off on Friday, and I come in today, and the screen looks almost the same as two days ago,” Stoneback said Saturday afternoon. “We haven’t adjusted the juice at all. The ticket count is very close, which is unbelievable for the number of tickets we’ve written. We’ve only got 100 more tickets on the Patriots than on the Falcons.”

Meanwhile, offshore got a little surprising activity Friday.

“Shocking as it is to believe, we’ve got some smart action on Atlanta,” Kaminsky said. “They took +3, minus a nickel and +3 (-110).”

That ultimately forced them to -115 and even -120, and Atlanta’s price bounced around throughout the day Saturday, back down to -105, then as high -117. Kaminsky said he’s flummoxed by the professionals pursuing Atlanta at 3.

“I’m a little stunned that they did this,” he said. “Taking +3 today doesn’t seem like very good strategy, when there’s a good possibility the number is gonna go higher next weekend.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Some big wagers beginning to roll in for Super Bowl LI
By PATRICK EVERSON

We’re less than a week away from Super Bowl LI. The line hasn’t moved at most sportsbooks around Las Vegas and throughout Nevada, and in some cases, even the juice is at the standard flat rate of -110. We talk about where the action is with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and Terry Cox, sportsbook director for the Peppermill Reno.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: none.

Even with Tom Brady missing the first four games of the year due to his Deflategate suspension, New England proved to be the best in the NFL both SU and ATS, at 14-2 and 13-3 respectively during the regular season. After a pair of easy playoff victories, the Patriots are 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS, and riding a nine-game winning streak (8-1 ATS) into Sunday’s Super Bowl in Houston.

Matt Ryan, whom many believe will be named the league MVP, has led the NFL’s top-scoring offense while guiding Atlanta to just its second-ever Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS) have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), putting up 33 points or more in all six games, including a 44-21 rout of Green Bay laying 6.5 points at home in the NFC Championship Game.

“Actually, no adjustments on the line itself. We opened it Sunday night after the conference championship games at 3 flat, and we’re currently at 3 flat,” Stoneback said Monday. “We’re actually seeing a little bit more money on the Patriots, it’s about a 3/2 ratio on the money. But it’s amazing, after one week of the Super Bowl being up, I just checked it, and there were 109 (more) tickets written on the Patriots than the Falcons. So as far as ticket count and everything, it’s pretty equal.”

Up north at the Peppermill Reno, Cox has also stood pat on Patriots -3 (-110), adding that perhaps surprisingly, sticking on that number hasn’t hindered wagering as much as it has in the past.

“When we had a 3-point spread that didn’t move, it kind of killed the action,” Cox said. “But not so this year. We’re getting good action. Five-figure bets, and several of them, actually.”

The Mirage and the rest of MGM Resorts books have also stood firm on the moneyline, with New England -145 and Atlanta +125. At the Peppermill, however, Cox made some adjustments due to Atlanta money, moving the Pats off their opener of -160 down to -150, with a corresponding move on the Falcons from +140 to +130.

“We’re very heavy on Atlanta moneyline,” Cox said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Advantage - Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The Patriots are seeking fifth Super Bowl title not only in franchise history, but also in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. New England battles Atlanta in Super Bowl LI in Houston in a matchup of the league’s top offense in the Falcons and the top defense in the Patriots. Atlanta’s offense registered a league-high 540 points, which ranks tied for seventh all-time in a single season, along with the 2000 St. Louis Rams.

Teams that have posted scoreboard-busting numbers over the years don’t win championships, as the six squads that put up more points in a season than Atlanta all failed to capture the title. Only two of those teams, the 2013 Broncos and the 2007 Patriots reached the Super Bowl, as the two powerful offenses combined for only 22 points in the Big Game.

This is the sixth time in Super Bowl history that the league’s top offense will square off against the best defense. Three years ago, the Seahawks humbled the Broncos, 43-8 as 2 ½-point underdogs, as Denver quarterback Peyton Manning (who threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns that season) was intercepted twice and tossed his only touchdown when his team trailed, 36-0. Only once in the first five tries has the best offense knocked off the league’s top defense in the Super Bowl as the 49ers routed the Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV in 1990.

The Patriots have allowed a total of 250 points this season, as the next best defense gave up 284 points (Giants). The defense has stepped up down the stretch by yielding 17 points or fewer in eight of the last nine games, including 17 to the Steelers in the AFC Championship.

Under Belichick, the Patriots have given up 21 points or fewer in four of six Super Bowl appearances, as the highest amount allowed came to Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII in a 32-29 win.

The Falcons haven’t won a playoff game away from Atlanta since the Wild Card round of the 2002 playoffs at Green Bay. Atlanta has dropped four consecutive postseason games on the road, while winning four of 13 playoff contests in franchise history away from Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium and the Georgia Dome.

Brady has been shut down in both his Super Bowl losses to the Giants, but his previous appearance in this game was his best. In Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots edged the Seahawks, 28-24 as Brady threw for 328 yards, completed 75% of his passes, and tossed four touchdowns when Falcons’ head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator of Seattle.

In the four Super Bowl wins with Brady at the helm, the Patriots have averaged 26 points per game, but New England hopes to improve on a 1-4 mark against the spread in their last five Super Bowl trips.

Joe Nelson chimes in with his thoughts on New England’s prowess from an offensive standpoint, “New England faced some stiff opposing defenses with an average league ranking of opponents at 13th in yards per play defense, yet the Patriots were still the third-highest scoring team in the league even playing four games with backup quarterbacks. In the 14 games with Brady, New England averaged 30.7 points per game, a pace that would have been the 19th-best in NFL history and only behind Atlanta this season.”

Nelson points out that although the Falcons made it to the Super Bowl, their record was anything but elite, “What might be concerning considering how impressive Atlanta’s offense has been is that they went just 11-5. None of the six teams in NFL history with a higher scoring regular season took home the Lombardi Trophy, but those teams went a combined 84-12 in the regular season even with some of those teams sporting similarly shaky supporting defensive units. That group of six teams includes a 16-0 team, two 15-1 teams, and two 13-3 teams.”

New England led the NFL by allowing only six rushing touchdowns in the regular season, while yielding 88.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranked tied for third in the league.

Falcons’ running back Devonta Freeman rushed for a career-high 1,079 yards, but broke the 100-yard mark only twice, including a 139-yard effort against San Francisco, who ranked last in the league in rushing defense. In the Week 15 blowout of the 49ers, the Falcons took advantage of San Francisco’s porous rush defense by posting 248 yards and three touchdowns.

In two playoff games, Freeman rushed for a combined 87 yards on 28 carries (3.1 yards/attempt), while scoring only two rushing touchdowns in the last four games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Advantage - Falcons
By Brian Edwards

The advantages for Atlanta over New England in Super Bowl LI are mostly based on its explosive offensive arsenal, but we’ll also touch on a young and improving defense that starts four rookies and a pair of second-year players.

Dan Quinn’s team has scored 540 points this season, the seventh-most in NFL history. For the first time in NFL history, a quarterback (ninth-year veteran Matt Ryan) threw touchdown passes to 11 different receivers.

If you had to script the parts of what you’d want from an explosive offense, the Falcons have those covered. Experienced QB playing the best football of his life? That’s a check with Ryan. Perhaps the best receiver in the league? That’s Julio Jones. Multiple RBs that have explosive speed, can produce between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have those attributes covered.

A solid and healthy offensive line? Atlanta sports the only unit that has started the same five guys all year long. Depth at WR? The Falcons get contributions from Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy. Hell, if we want to get greedy, why not request one of the NFL’s best blocking fullbacks who also has great hands catching the ball? That’s Patrick DiMarco, who had a 31-yard catch against Green Bay.

How salty is New England’s defense? Well, the stats tell us the Patriots lead the league in scoring, allowing only 15.6 points per game. However, veteran handicapper Joe Nelson is here to explain how those numbers can be misleading.

Nelson said, “New England’s #1 scoring defense will take on a lot of scrutiny this week as they don’t look much like the elite defenses that have taken home Super Bowls in recent years, notably the 2013-14 Seahawks or last season’s Broncos. The 18 games New England played wound up vs. teams that have an average league ranking of 19th in yards per play offense including facing four games vs. the league’s three worst yards-per-play offenses. Counting the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots only played four games vs. the league’s top 10 yards-per-play-offenses including none vs. the top five, and in two of those four games they faced a backup quarterback.”

Nelson wasn’t done there when it came to chipping away at a New England defense that simply hasn’t faced a prolific offense of the sort that Atlanta owns. Nelson added, “Just about every defensive indicator will lean to New England in this matchup but the schedule for the Patriots can certainly be questioned, not facing a top 10 rated quarterback in any of the 18 games they have played. Ryan is #1 on that list ahead of Tom Brady and his numbers in two playoff games are off the charts, including lighting up one of the league’s better defensive teams against Seattle.”

Indeed, Atlanta’s offensive numbers are amazing. During 16 regular-season games, the Boston College product produced career-highs in completion percentage (69.9%), passing yards (4,944), yards per pass attempt (9.3), TD passes (38), QB rating (117.1) and a career-low seven interceptions. Making those numbers more impressive is the fact that Ryan was coming off one of his worst season in 2015 under a new coaching staff and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

After throwing only 21 TD passes (second-lowest of career) compared to 16 interceptions (second-worst of career), Quinn nonetheless stuck with Shanahan. Ryan dedicated the offseason to working on the skills that Shanahan wanted him to utilize, such as better and quicker footwork when making play-action fakes.

I became sold on the Falcons this year, ironically, in a loss at Seattle. Despite trailing 17-3 at halftime and struggling mightily to keep Seattle’s defensive front out of Ryan’s face, they responded with a 21-0 third quarter to take the lead. If the refs would’ve flagged Richard Sherman for a blatant pass interference in the game’s final minute, Atlanta probably wins that game.

But even in defeat, it was clear this Atlanta squad had the toughness, determination and heart that had been lacking since four years ago when it came 10 yards shy of going to the franchise’s second Super Bowl.

Atlanta (13-5 straight up, 12-6 against the spread) is even better than its record portrays. Quinn’s team lost three unfathomable heartbreakers, including the aforementioned loss at Seattle. The Falcons also lost at home in overtime to the Chargers, who rallied from a 17-point deficit and were fortunate to get to OT when Matt Bryant’s 58-yard field goal on the last play of regulation hit the cross bar. They also lost at home to Kansas City (by one point!) when the Chiefs scored on a pick-six, a pick-two, a fake punt and a fourth-and-goal play.

How hot is Ryan right now? Well, he’s led Atlanta to six consecutive victories by throwing 18 TD passes without an interception. Ryan torched the Packers for 392 passing yards and four TDs, and he threw for 338 yards and three TDs against the Seahawks.

Although he missed a pair of regular-season games, Jones still had 83 receptions for 1,409 yards during the regular season. He had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs vs. Green Bay and the farewell game at the Georgia Dome two weeks ago.

If you look at the overall stats, Atlanta’s defense isn’t overly impressive. But when you’re often protecting leads, large ones in some instances, you’re going to give up a good bit of yards. However, this unit continues to improve each week. In fact, the Falcons have held six of their last eight foes to 21 points or fewer. And, if we want to get nit-picky, we shouldn’t count KC’s 29 points because nine points came from Eric Berry’s multiple interceptions and seven more came off a fake punt.

When Atlanta lost its best cover corner in Desmond Trufant to a season-ending injury in November, conventional wisdom indicated that it would be a huge loss for this defense. But thanks to the emergence of rookie free agent DB Brian Poole, who inexplicably wasn’t drafted after a stellar collegiate career at Florida, the secondary has fared just fine.

Poole is one of four rookie starters. Safety Keanu Neal and LB Deion Jones were sensational picks in the first and second rounds out of UF and LSU, respectively, by GM Thomas Dimitroff. He also scored big with LB De’Vondre Campbell, a fourth-round selection out of Minnesota. Jones and Neal are the Falcons’ top tacklers, while Poole and Campbell are fifth and sixth on the team in tackles.

Jones had three interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes, during the regular season and also had a pick against Seattle in the NFC semifinals. Vic Beasley, a second-year DE from Clemson, looked like a bust in an unproductive rookie campaign. Beasley shook that bust label quickly this year, though, when he led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and also had six forced fumbles. Neal, by the way, had five forced fumbles.

Obviously, experience is not an advantage for Atlanta when matched up with New England and its six Super Bowl trips during the Brady/Belichick Era. With that said, Quinn has been down this road. He was Seattle’s defensive coordinator in a pair of Super Bowls, one win over Denver and a loss, albeit in gut-wrenching fashion, to New England in a game the Seahawks’ defense acquitted itself quite well.

Atlanta has only been an underdog once since mid-October, but it isn’t an unfamiliar situation. The Falcons were underdogs six times this year, compiling a 5-1 spread record with four outright victories.