Sunday 12/25/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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'AFC North Showdown'

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers December 25 4:30 EST

The Baltimore Ravens (8-6, 6-8 ATS) edging Eagles 27-26 at home this past week will try to reclaim first place (based on tiebreakers) Xmas Night with a road win against Steelers (9-5 SU/ATS) who rallied from a 20-9 second quarter deficit to snatch a 24-20 victory over Bengals.

Ravens bested Steelers 21-14 in Baltimore back in Week 9 but with Steelers rolling along on a five game win streak gives pause Ravens can do it again in Week 16. Besides, Ravens haven't exactly been pegs to hang your hopes on when travelling. In six trips away from M&T Bank Stadium this season the result has been 2 wins, 4 losses with a cash-draining 1-5 record against the betting line. Looking back to the past fifteen in unfriendly territory the Ravens are just 4-11 with a money-burning 5-9-1 record at the betting window.

'Tis the season to be jolly, but won't be for Ravens who have flailed about when put in the role of road dog facing a team off a win (2-6 ATS) and eye-opening money-guzzling 0-10-1 ATS playing a team off B-2-B SU/ATS wins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 15 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 44)

It’s becoming obvious that Pittsburgh is the team most likely to challenge the Patriots in a final conference tilt. Their plus-65 scoring difference is second to the Patriots in the AFC. I made this line closer to -6.5 to -7 Even.

Pittsburgh has won five in a row heading into this clash and most assuredly will want to seek a little revenge for its loss in Baltimore earlier this season. By no means are the Steelers set in the playoffs. Incentive will be high and their momentum is heavily into the swing of things heading to the postseason.

Baltimore has lost four in a row on the road with margins of seven, 10 and eight the past three. With a few +4.5 lines still out there, you’ll want to pick that off right now. There won’t be any left by the weekend for sure. The Steelers are allowing only 14 points per game during their current streak and scoring over 25 in those same games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16

Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.

Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Underdogs That Qualify

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.

This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.

Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.

Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.

Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.

Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.

The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.

Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.

Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.

A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.

Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.

But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.

Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.

Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.

Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.

Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

I love this time of year.

The smell of pine fills the house, Christmas carols on the stereo and family all under one roof. In my household in particular, we have traditions of lobster on Christmas Eve, Christmas morning mimosas, classic Simpons marathons (classic being Seasons 3 to 8, of course) and plenty of rum and egg nog.

It’s just the perfect combination for me and this year, it gets even better, because not only do we have NBA on Christmas Day, we get football on Christmas Eve and December 25. That sounds like a perfect Christmas to me.

Before we dive into a Christmas edition of “Dogs”, I just want to say Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. It’s a very meaningful time of year to me and my family and I hope all those reading this have the very best of holidays.

Christmas Day Special

Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens are a bad bet on the road this season. I know. But, you throw everything out the window when the Ravens and Steelers face off. Especially when first place in the AFC North is on the line.

Baltimore won the first meeting this season 21-14 back in Week 9 as a 3.5-point home underdog, when it held Ben Roethlisberger to 23-of-45 passing for 264 yards, one touchdown and one interception. So a win by Baltimore would give it the tiebreaker.

Baltimore also has a Top-5 defense this season when it comes to total yards. This one has the feeling of a back-and-forth Christmas Day slugfest and 5.5 points seems like too many with so much on the line.

Pick: Ravens +5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Twas the night before Christmas and NFL bettors are stiring sportbooks
By PATRICK EVERSON

If you’re a fan of the NFL, the Christmas presents will come early and often, with 12 games on the Saturday slate to beat the Sunday holiday rush. We talk about where the Week 16 action is with Matthew Holt, chief operating officer of CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -6; Move: -5; Move: -6

Pittsburgh is back where most oddsmakers thought they’d be heading into this Christmas Day game: on top of the AFC North. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) have won and covered five in a row, including a 24-20 win at Cincinnati laying 3 points last week.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) can tie Pittsburgh atop the division with a win Sunday and would then hold the tiebreaker edge, since it beat the Steelers 21-14 on Nov. 6 catching 3.5 points at home. The Ravens edged Philadelphia 27-26 in Week 15 as a 5-point home favorite, snuffing out the Eagles’ 2-point conversion attempt after a final-seconds touchdown.

“Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were our biggest liability, and they’ve been the biggest liability during the week five times during the 2016 NFL season,” Holt said. “We opened this line -6, thought it could go either way, as high as 7, as low as 3.5-4. The sharps jumped all over the Baltimore Ravens here, and we kind of figured the sharps would take the Ravens in this rivalry matchup.

“But what’s interesting is the public has also been on the Ravens here, 1.5 times more dollars wagered over the counter on the Baltimore Ravens. That was surprising.”

That Ravens money drove the line down to 5, though it was back at 6 by Thursday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
By Micah Roberts

The Ravens have won four straight against the Steelers but Pittsburgh rides a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS) in this matchup and is listed as a 5.5-point home favorite on Christmas Day.

"We've got play on both sides and I'm kind of surprised because I thought I'd be at -6 already," Andrews said.

The Christmas nightcap is another divisional rivalry with Denver visiting Kansas City and the number has been falling rapidly since posted on Monday.

"We've got a ton of money on Denver already," said Andrews, who has dropped the Chiefs from -5 to -3. "The Chiefs really blew one last week, so I look for them to come up with a good performance and the Broncos haven't shown anything offensively the last two weeks."

The total is sitting at 37.5 at most books with rain expected and winds up to 23 mph. Beyond the weather causing such a low total, the Chiefs have stayed 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games and the Broncos have scored 13 combined points in their last two games. Denver has won the last five meetings at Arrowhead.

Monday night has Detroit visiting Dallas looking to clinch the NFC North with a win, which would be Matt Stafford's first division title in his seven-year career. Dallas has already clinched home field and the question is whether or not the starters will play the entire game.

"We got lots of play on Dallas -7 early in the week. Even with the Cowboys clinching with the Giants loss, I don't buy into the fact that this team needs the game or that team doesn't; it's overrated. I waited to take a strong bet at +7 until dropping to 6.5."

The last instance of the Cowboys clinching their playoff spot where a regular season game meant nothing was in 2014 and the starters played for most of the 44-17 win over the Redskins -- Dallas played the Lions the next week in the Wild Card round.

No word on what head coach Jason Garrett will do with his starters on Monday, but even if he does choose rest over rust, he's got a hungry Tony Romo as a nice back-up itching to play if he decides to rest Dak Prescott.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ posted a 9-7 record despite a lot of teams moving the chains. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, there were 69 made field goals in Week 15 compared to 71 touchdowns and those four-point swings can often hurt or help outcomes. Through 15 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge 112-111-1.

Divisional Trends to Watch

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday): Tough total (44) to handicap because Pittsburgh’s been a clear-cut ‘under’ team (10-4) this season but it still has the ability to explode offensively. Baltimore has also leaned to the ‘under’ (8-6) yet the offense has found its rhythm the last three weeks (29.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘over’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series, which includes their first meeting this season when Baltimore dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 at home.

Denver at Kansas City: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ run in the primetime matchups continued in Week 15 with a 3-1 mark, the lone ‘over’ occurring in Miami’s 34-13 win over the Jets last Saturday. The ‘under’ was on a 5-2 run the last two weeks but Philadelphia and New York did go ‘over’ this past Thursday, which snapped a six-game run to the low side on the midweek game. Through 15 weeks and one game, the ‘under’ holds a 26-21-1 mark in night games this season.

Denver at Kansas City (Sunday): These teams combined for 57 points in Week 12 as Kansas City nipped Denver 30-27 in overtime on the road. This was a 16-10 game going into the fourth quarter and looked like an easy ‘under’ winner. For the rematch, the books have sent out a super-low number of 37 ½ points and the number is justified. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 10-4 this season, 6-1 at Arrowhead Stadium while Denver enters this contest on a 3-0 ‘under’ run behind an offense (11 PPG) that has imploded the last three weeks. This is another contest that will likely be affected with inclement weather.

Detroit at Dallas (Monday): Knowing the Cowboys clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Thursday due to the Giants losing makes this game very tough to handicap. Will Dallas pull up in this spot and go through the motions? Tough to say but we do know the Lions enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and they have a very good defense. Dallas has also been a solid ‘under’ bet (9-5) this season and its last three games have all leaned to the low side. This total opened 42 ½ and sits at 44 ½ as of Friday but that could quickly change based on what Cowboys team we’ll see this Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Christmas Tips
By Micah Roberts

The NFL has given us a couple of Week 16 Christmas games to be very merry about with four teams all fighting for a playoff berth and the results of Sunday's game will make the postseason picture much clearer.

The Steelers can clinch a division crown with a win against the Ravens in the early game and the Chiefs can clinch a spot in the nightcap against the Broncos.

Let's take at how these two rivalries stack up:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 44)
NFL Network, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Ravens have won four straight over the Steelers, but if Pittsburgh can halt the streak and win Sunday at Heinz Field they'll clinch the AFC North. However, Baltimore controls its own destiny. If they win Sunday and next week at Cincinnati, they'll clinch the division and be the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs.

Prior to Saturday's games, the Ravens were outside looking in as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They've built up their respect with Las Vegas oddsmakers over the past seven weeks by going 5-2. However, they've lost the past four on the road and are just 1-5 ATS on the road this season which is part of the reason Pittsburgh is as high as a six-point favorite at CG Technology sports books for this one.

The other reason Pittsburgh is favored so high is because they're peaking at the right time and playing to expectations that their high rating had when the season started. After going through a stretch of losing and failing to cover four straight, Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five with the running game, passing game and defense all being dominant at times.

Four of those five games during the win streak have stayed 'under' the total. Pittsburgh's 10-4 'under' mark is tied with two other teams as second-best in the NFL. Sunday's total is set with a a high at 45 and a low at 44.

RECENT MEETINGS

Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Under is 3-0-1 as well.

TRENDS

-- Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in last seven against NFC North teams.
-- Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in last five road games.
-- Baltimore 'under' is 5-1-1 in last seven Week 16 games.

-- Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in last six against AFC North teams.
-- Pittsburgh in 5-0 ATS in last five games.
-- Pittsburgh 'under' is 19-6-1 in last 26 against NFC North teams.

Denver at Kansas City (-3.5, 37.5)
NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET

All the Chiefs need to clinch a playoff berth is for Baltimore to either tie or lose Sunday's earlier game at Pittsburgh or take care of business on their own with a win or tie at home against the Broncos in the evening.

For the Broncos, they have all kinds of scenarios that could give them a playoff berth by either winning their final two games and finishing 10-6 or splitting them and finishing 9-7. Any way they slice it, they're still outside looking in to the playoff equation and need lots of help.

"The only scenario I know is that if we don't win, we get no chance," said Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak.

Those chances look bleak based on what we've all seen out of the Broncos lately. After starting 4-0 they've lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. However, they have won the last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

The Denver defense has been steady, ranked No. 2 overall (310 YPG allowed) while also tied for No. 1 with 40 sacks. But the run defense has been a source for repeated success by opponents, ranked No. 29 allowing 127 yards per game. The sluggish offense has shown it can't run the ball (91 YPG) and can't score getting just 13 points combined in its it last two games. The passing game will also suffer this week as the top two tight-ends are likely to be 'out' with concussions.

The top reason for Denver optimism coming into this game is "Mother Nature" which could turn this into a really ugly game that bodes well for Denver's defense to make some big plays. Thunderstorms are expected with winds as high as 24 miles per hour, which means passing will be very difficult and turnovers with slippery balls should be high for both teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Chiefs may have already clinched a playoff spot with a Baltimore loss which could lend belief that Kansas City might not play as hard, but they're still in the hunt for the AFC West crown and if Oakland loses to the Colts Saturday a Kansas City win would put them in first-place by virtue of sweeping the Raiders this season. So don't expect major line adjustment based on other teams results heading into the game. However, some serious line movement has already happened. The -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kansas City -6 on Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it had been bet down to -4 and then -3.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from 38 down to 37.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Broncos have covered six of its past seven at Kansas City and the road team has covered the last six meetings. Kansas City has won the past two meetings, both at Denver.

TRENDS

-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against winning teams.
-- Denver is 1-5 ATS in last six against AFC West teams.
-- Denver 'under' is 5-1 in last six road games.

-- Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in last five following an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City 'under' is 38-15 in last 53 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC West heats up SNF

Week 16 SNF Betting Preview
Denver vs. Kansas City

Odds: Kansas City (-3.5); Total set at 37.5

The two AFC West teams meeting up on SNF are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses, but it's the Denver Broncos who are in the more dire situation as they are on the outside looking in regarding the playoff picture and need to win out and get some help along the way.

Not returning to the playoffs would be a huge disappointment for the defending Super Bowl Champions, but it wouldn't be unexpected as life after Peyton Manning was going to come with some growing pains on the offensive side of the ball.

Denver's offense has been atrocious down the stretch and their poor play even caused a locker room spat within the team between offense and defense after last week's loss. Can QB Trevor Siemian and company turn it around it time for Denver to save their season?

The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league in nearly every offensive category this year and if it wasn't for their top tier defense, we'd be talking about this team being 4-10 SU rather than 8-6 SU. The old adage of “defense winning championships” may hold plenty of truth, but you've got to get to the playoffs first before a championship can be won and the Broncos backs are up against the wall in that regard.

The good news for Denver is that their best offensive performance of the past six weeks came against this Kansas City Chiefs team, as they put up 27 points in an OT loss.

It was the Denver defense that let the squad down that day as they allowed KC to tie it up with a TD and 2-pt conversion with under 10 seconds remaining, and one can't help but wonder if that result went the other way how the fortunes of these two franchises would have changed the scenarios for this week.

Based on the locker room spat between the two sides of the ball a week ago, chances are the Broncos defense won't be letting the team down again and will do everything in their power to hold the Chiefs down this week and possibly even put up some points.

KC blew their own late late last week in losing 19-17 at home vs. Tennessee and now have to win at least one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.

The Chiefs are still in the conversation for a division crown and a Top-2 seed in the AFC, but like Denver, they'll need more production from their offense the rest of the way if a Super Bowl appearance is in the cards.

This is not a good week to expect much improvement from KC's offense as the Broncos defense is stout, so look for KC's own defense to match what Denver does and continue to force turnovers as they've done all season.

So what does this all add up too from a betting perspective?

Well, for one, barring another OT game, don't expect anywhere near 57 points scored again between these two as there is too much on the line for both sides not to have both rely on their strength (defensive football) to get the job done.

I've mentioned on other division rematch games this year that it's typically a good idea to flip the results in the return meeting (if game 1 went over, take under etc) and this SNF game fits the bill.

There is no way anyone out there can trust the Broncos offense to put up more than 17 points these days and Kansas City will have a hard time reaching that number themselves vs a Broncos defense that hasn't given up that many points in three straight weeks.

Denver is 1-5 O/U in their last six away from home and have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U when failing to cover the spread their last time out.

Kansas City is on a 2-8 O/U run overall and is 1-5 O/U themselves off a loss.

Throw in a 0-4 O/U mark for the Chiefs at home vs a winning team, a 15-38 O/U run at home overall, and a 3-7-2 O/U run in the last 12 meetings between these two and points will be at a premium in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Christmas Afternoon Football betting preview: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have given football fans quite the gift with their intense rivalry, but the AFC North rivals are in line to give themselves an impressive present on Christmas Day with a victory at the other's expense. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a victory on Sunday at Heinz Field while Baltimore can claim the AFC North title with wins in its final two games.

While the Steelers have won five in a row overall to claim a one-game edge in the standings over the Ravens, Baltimore has emerged victorious in four straight in the series - including a 21-14 triumph on Nov. 6. Mike Wallace reeled in a 95-yard touchdown reception in that tilt and was quick to gift-wrap bulletin-board material this week by telling his former Pittsburgh teammates, "Just because I tell you Merry Christmas doesn't mean I wouldn't score a touchdown on you. I can tell you Merry Christmas on the way to the end zone." Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger passed and rushed for a score in the first meeting with Baltimore and connected with Eli Rogers in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 victory over Cincinnati on Sunday. Six field goals by kicker Chris Boswell packed a punch against the Bengals, who may have the final say of who wins this division when they host the Ravens in a key Week 17 showdown on New Year's Day.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2) - Steelers (-5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -4

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North matchup favoured by 4-points at home and that line has been growing all week to the current number of 6. The total opened at 44.5 and briefly dropped to 44 before returning to 44.5.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Christmas day at Heinz Field is intervals of cloud and sun and temperatures in the mid-40’s at kickoff and winds out of the east at 6 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Pittsburgh lost the earlier meeting 21-14 at Baltimore on November 6th, but the Steelers are now a healthier team. That earlier loss came during a 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak, but the Steelers have since gone 5-0 SU/ATS in their past five games. This has always been a competitive divisional series with 6 of the past 10 meetings being decided by a 3-point margin or less.” - Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Steelers are seeing 57 percent of the total number tickets, while the Ravens are seeing 54 percent of the total dollars wagered." - Michael Grodsky, Vice President of Marketing & Public Relations, William Hill Race & Sports Book

INJURY REPORT:

Baltimore - WR Steve Smith (wide receiver, thigh), TE Crockett Gillmore (probable, thigh), DE Brent Urban (questionable, illness), LB Kamalei Correa (questionable, ribs), DB Anthony Levine Sr. (questionable, toe), G Alex Lewis (questionable, ankle), RB Javorius Allen (questionable, personal), G Jeremy Zuttah (questionable, undisclosed), CB Jimmy Smith (doubtful, ankle)

Pittsburgh - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable, knee), CB Justin Gilbert (questionable, illness), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), S Shamarko Thomas (questionable, concussion), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (doubtful, leg), WR Sammie Coates (doubtful, hamstring), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 OU): Joe Flacco (career-best 374 completions this season) threw two touchdown passes on Sunday as Baltimore posted its fifth win in seven outings with a 27-26 victory over Philadelphia. The 31-year-old Flacco owns a 5-3 mark at Heinz Field since the beginning of 2010 but has struggled on the road this season, losing his last four away from home and tossing seven interceptions in six games. Terrance West rolled up 122 yards from scrimmage (77 rushing, 45 receiving) versus the Eagles, but was limited to just 21 yards on 15 carries in last month's meeting with Pittsburgh's fifth-ranked run defense (89.1). Linebacker Zachary Orr recorded 10 of his AFC third-best 122 tackles in the first encounter with the Steelers.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 4-10 OU): Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 158.8 yards from scrimmage per game and his 1,146 rushing yards are third-best in the league despite serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. The electric Bell, however, was limited to 32 yards rushing against Baltimore's second-ranked run defense (82.1) in the first meeting. Wideout Antonio Brown found the end zone against the Ravens and his 11 touchdowns this season and 96 catches are second-best in the league. Linebacker Lawrence Timmons, who has a team-leading 98 tackles, has 10-plus tackles in five of the last seven encounters with Baltimore.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Steelers are picking up 51 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Christmas Night Football betting preview: Denver at Kansas City

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 41.5)

After last week's loss to New England, the Denver Broncos need to win their final two games to have a hope of defending their Super Bowl title. The Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs, whose playoff hopes also absorbed a hit last week with 19-17 loss on a last-second field goal to Tennessee, on Sunday night.

The Broncos started the season 4-0, but have since lost six of 10 and have gone 1-3 since posting a respectable 7-3 mark. "The only playoff scenario I know is that if we don’t win, we get no chance," Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak told reporters earlier in the week. Actually that's not the case as Denver could still earn a playoff berth with a loss and miss the playoffs altogether with two more wins, a scenario that will be much clearer by the time their late Christmas Day game kicks off. Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Broncos or if the Ravens lose or tie.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-1) - Chiefs (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 4-point home favorites and that number has faded half-point to 3.5. The total opened at 39 and has been bet down one full point to the current number of 37.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium is mostly cloudy skies with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in the mid-50’s. There will be strong winds out of the southwest 10-20 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “There will be a lot in the line in the Broncos-Chiefs clash this Sunday with Kansas City one game back of Oakland in the AFC WFC while Denver is battling for a coveted spot in the Wild Card chase. The Broncos will hope their mastery on the division road (15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS last seventeen AFC West away games) continues, whereas the Chiefs will rely on the success they’ve enjoyed at Arrowhead Stadium in games throughout December (24-10 SU and 20-13-1 ATS since 1997). Not surprise if the last team that scores wins this game.” - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Kansas City as a 4.5-point favourite but took sharp Denver action on that number pushing us to Chiefs -3.5 where we currently sit with solid two way action. Kansas City is getting 58 percent of that action to cover." - Michael Stewart .

INJURY REPORT:

Denver - QB Trevor Siemian (probable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (questionable, neck), C Matt Paradis (questionable, hip), DE Jared Crick (questionable, ribs), LB Demarcus Ware (questionable, neck), TE Virgil Green (questionable, concussion), TE A.J. Derby (out, concussion), S T.J. Ward (out, concussion), RB C.J. Anderson (out for season, knee)

Kansas City - LB Justin March (questionable, hand), LB Tampa Hali (questionable, knee), LB Justin Houston (questionable, knee), TE Demetrius Harris (questionable, foot), DB Phillip Gaines (questionable, knee), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, wrist)

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 OU): Trevor Siemien's up-and-down campaign continued last week when he completed 25-of-40 throws for 282 yards as Denver was kept out of the end zone for the first time all season in the 16-3 defeat. The Broncos have virtually abandoned their ground game, which has fallen to 27th in the league (91.3 yards a game), as newly-acquired Justin Forsett led the team in rushing with 37 yards on 10 carries against the Patriots. Denver's defense remains strong as it ranks first in passing defense (183 yards a game), second in total defense and fourth in the NFL in points allowed (18.4).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 OU): With a chance to clinch a playoff berth in his grasp last week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid pushed all the wrong buttons. Reid watched his team fail to score on a fourth-and-goal try from the 1-yard line, saw Alex Smith throw an interception in the end zone late in the third quarter, and then called a timeout only to let Ryan Succop get another chance to boot what proved to be a 53-yard field goal in the game's final seconds. The Chiefs have won the past two games in this series led by all-purpose threat Tyreek Hill, who rushed for a score, caught a touchdown pass and returned a kick 87 yards for another score in Kansas City’s 30-27 overtime victory over the Broncos on Nov. 27.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Chiefs are getting 67 percent of the wagers and the over is getting 54 percent of the Over/Under action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)

Date: December 25, 2016 4:30 PM EDT

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens continue their spirited rivalry in a Christmas Day showdown that could ultimately decide which team advances to the postseason.

The Steelers (9-5) simply need a win to clinch their seventh AFC North title and earn a spot in the playoffs for the third straight year. The Ravens (8-6), meanwhile, likely need to beat both Pittsburgh and the Cincinnati Bengals in the regular-season finale to capture their first division crown since 2012.

Either way, the game is shaping up to be another classic matchup between these bitter rivals.

"We are excited about this opportunity," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "When you really think about it, it's going to be an exciting game for us, an exciting game for them. It's going to be an exciting game for the fans.

"You could say that both teams have been fighting and clawing for some period of time to get to this point, to this game, in this stadium, with this amount of significance or what is at stake. From a competitor's standpoint it's an awesome thing. It is a snapshot of December football."

Even though the Ravens are the underdog, they will enter Heinz Field with a sense of confidence. Baltimore has won four straight games in the series, including a 21-14 victory on Nov. 6 at M&T Bank Stadium. A victory would secure back-to-back season sweeps of the Steelers for the first time in franchise history.

The winner of this game will also likely earn the third seed in the AFC playoffs, which means a first-round home game. The Ravens have lost their past four road matchups.

"We understand the challenge that's presented," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "Pittsburgh is playing great football. (It's a) great team -- all phases -- a very well-coached, obviously, excellent playmakers, tough, hard-nosed team, and we're looking forward to the challenge. But we feel like we're up to it."

In the first meeting, Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was 18 of 30 for 241 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the 21-14 victory. Mike Wallace had a huge game against his former team with four receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown.

Now, the Steelers are out for a measure of revenge.

"We lost the first game," Pittsburgh offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert said. "This game is going to be ours, it's at our field. I'm excited, man. This is why we play the game of football."

The Steelers have improved since the last meeting with the Ravens and are riding a five-game winning streak -- its longest since 2009. Pittsburgh is also getting solid contributions on both sides of the ball.

Much of the pressure will be on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to snap the skid against Baltimore -- a team that has managed to make plays against him.

Over his career, Roethlisberger is 9-9 against the Ravens with 4,170 passing yards. He has thrown 28 touchdown passes with 19 interceptions. He will look to attack the Ravens' secondary by targeting Antonio Brown, especially if starting cornerback Jimmy Smith is out.

Smith injured his right ankle Week 14 in the first quarter against the New England Patriots and missed the following game against the Philadelphia Eagles. He was not able to practice earlier this week. If Smith cannot play, Shareece Wright will take his spot opposite rookie Tavon Young.

"It's going to be tough with Jimmy or not," Ravens safety Eric Weddle said. "We have to play each play like it's going to determine whether we win or lose."

While Pittsburgh running back Le'Veon Bell has dominated most teams, Baltimore has also managed to contain him. Bell is averaging just 67.7 yards in six career games against the Ravens, who are ranked second in the NFL against the run this season.

In the first meeting against the Ravens this season, Bell carried the ball 14 times for just 32 yards, which is a season-low for the dynamic back.

The Steelers, though, are not concerned about stats. The sole focus is earning a victory.

"We've got to win the game," offensive lineman David DeCastro said. "I don't care how it gets done. If we have one rushing yards or 200 rushing yards -- it doesn't matter. We've just got to get the win."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4)

Date: December 25, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

When they face each other Christmas night at Arrowhead Stadium, both the Kansas City Chiefs and visiting Denver Broncos hope for the same present under the tree - a more consistent and productive offense.

The Chiefs (10-4) need a victory to earn a spot in the AFC playoffs. The Broncos (8-6) have slim chances of returning to the postseason after their Super Bowl victory last season.

Kansas City is coming off a 19-17 loss to Tennessee where its offense disappeared in the second half after a first-quarter 14-0 lead. The Broncos are also a week out from their 16-3 loss at home to New England.

In that game, the Broncos had 309 offensive yards, but put only a field goal on the scoreboard. Denver turned the ball over three times, was just 2 of 17 on third-down conversions and ran for only 58 yards. Afterward, the offensive line and secondary shared some barbed words in the locker room.

"It's OK to be upset; there's pain in what we do," Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak said. "There's no division. That's part of football. We played well enough on defense to give ourselves a chance to beat them, but we did not play well enough offensively to do that. That's football."

On the season, Denver ranks 24th among the 32 teams in offensive yards, producing just 326.7 yards per game. The Broncos are No. 21 in points scored with an average of 21.4 points per game. They are 26th on third downs (34.9 percent) and 29th in the red zone (44.2 percent.)

Those numbers are almost a carbon copy of the offensive problems the Chiefs are producing this season. Kansas City stands No. 23 in offensive yards per game (331.4) and ranks 15th in points with an average of 22.8 points per game. They are No. 27 on third downs (34.8 percent) and No. 27 in the red zone (44.4 percent.)

"I expect us to go back and work hard, get right back on it and fix the problems," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said on his team's loss to Tennessee. "That's what you do. You're still sitting in a pretty good situation here. You're sitting at 10-4, everything's ahead of you and you have a great football team coming in that you have an opportunity to play. So, you get yourself right, and we go play."

What's been especially disappointing for the Kansas City offense has been recent performances in the second half. In the last three games, the Chiefs have produced nine points in the third and fourth quarters. There were no offensive touchdowns, or even setting up a field goal.

"We just have to do a better job across the board -- everybody does," quarterback Alex Smith said. "We need to go out there and execute better, finish better, adjust better. All those things play into it. We need to be better."

For either team, victory will depend on their defenses. The Broncos are one of the league's best, allowing 310.9 yards per game (No. 2) and only 183 passing yards (No. 1). They are fourth in fewest points allowed, at an average of 18.4 points per game.

"We understand that the defense is playing extremely well and offensively we're not playing as good as we're supposed to be," wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders said. "We're the ones that are holding this team back and we're trying to get it together."

Kansas City's defense hasn't posted as impressive numbers, although they lead the league in takeaways (28) for a plus-13 turnover ratio (No. 2 behind Oakland.) But the Chiefs give up a lot of yardage, allowing 375.1 yards per game (No. 29) and 124.7 rushing yards every week (No. 28). However, they are No. 8 in the league in fewest points allowed, at 19.6 per game.

These teams met on Nov. 27 in Denver and played 75 minutes before Chiefs kicker Cairo Santos banged a 34-yard field goal off the left upright, that bounced in for a 30-27 victory.

"We lost that game about three different times," Kubiak said. "That's the type of team they are; you have to give them credit. I think they've been in 10 or 11 one-score football games this year and have won eight of them. That's what they do and that's why they're in the position that they are in. We can't think about the one we lost. We have to figure out a way to play better in this one."

The defending Super Bowl champions understand they need a victory to keep alive faint hopes for a repeat. That forces the spotlight on the offense.

"That's the difference between this team and last year's," Sanders said. "We came up with the crucial plays. We came with those magic plays. We were able to make those plays and as of lately we haven't been able to."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Expert NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Just two games this Sunday on the Christmas holiday: Baltimore at Pittsburgh with a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and then Denver at Kansas City in the Sunday night game. I looked at Broncos-Chiefs a few Sunday nights ago in Denver, a crazy Chiefs win, so I want to really examine the Steelers game because they were my preseason pick to win the AFC title. And if Pittsburgh doesn't win this game, it might not be in the playoffs at all.

But if the Steelers (9-5) do win here, they will be AFC North champions. And if so, they are almost surely locked into the No. 3 spot, meaning a home playoff game against the second wild-card team, which is currently Miami. Pittsburgh would also win the division with a loss to Baltimore as long as the Steelers beat the visiting Browns in Week 17 (about as close to a lock as possible) and the Ravens lose at the eliminated Bengals (maybe). Pittsburgh is -550 to win the North with Baltimore at +400.

A wild-card spot is possible for the Steelers if they lose Sunday and win over Cleveland and Baltimore also wins Week 17. But Pittsburgh would need either the Dolphins or Chiefs to lose their last two games. In that scenario, the Steelers need a three-way tiebreaker at 10-6, which they would win, rather than any head to head involving Miami because the Dolphins beat the Steelers earlier this year.

The Ravens (8-6) know if they win out, they take the North. It's possible for them to finish 1-1 and earn a wild-card spot, but they would need the following to happen: Miami to lose its final two games (at Bills, vs. Patriots) and Denver to lose one of its final two (at Chiefs, vs. Raiders). Basically, if the Ravens don't win the AFC North, they just have to make sure no one else fighting for the final wild-card spot gets to 10 wins because they have the tiebreaker advantage over all the teams that can finish 9-7.

Baltimore hasn't won a road game since Sept. 25, so I'm not confident it will finish 2-0. I believe if this team misses the postseason again that the Ravens and Coach John Harbaugh might mutually part ways for a fresh start for both. I keep hearing Harbaugh (not his brother Jim) linked to the Rams.

Ravens at Steelers Betting Story Lines

Baltimore concluded its home schedule with a very fortunate 27-26 win over Philadelphia last Sunday. That game shouldn't have been close at the end. Joe Flacco can be an excellent QB at times and he has a Super Bowl ring and SB MVP Award to show for it. But, man, he makes stupid decisions at times. Up 27-17 with first-and-10 at the Eagles 11 and around six minutes left, that game is probably over just with a field goal. But Flacco threw it right to an Eagles linebacker.

That led to a Philly field goal. Then the Eagles got a stop and pulled within 27-26 with four seconds left. The Ravens caught a break that Philly coach Doug Pederson wanted to make a statement to his eliminated team by going for 2, and the Carson Wentz pass was incomplete. Had Baltimore lost that game, Harbaugh's seat is really hot. But sometimes you need to be lucky and good. To be fair to Harbaugh, he doesn't call the offensive plays, Marty Mornhinweg does. But the head coach admitted it was the "All-time worst call ever. I'll take responsibility for it. I should have vetoed it right away. I like an aggressive mindset, but that was way too aggressive." The Baltimore offense isn't good enough to win many games when the Ravens' excellent defense allows more than 24 points. That was the first time this year it happened. Speaking of that defense, it was without top cornerback Jimmy Smith last week due to injury, and it's still not clear if he will play Sunday. The Ravens' secondary has looked far more vulnerable without Smith on the field. He has missed two other games as well.

If there's any need for added motivation this week for the Steelers, they could rest their key guys next week vs. the Browns (who surely would appreciate that) if they can clinch the division. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati last week, 24-20, for its fifth straight victory -- four of those away from home. I watched that game, and the Steelers were totally flat in the first half, trailing 20-9 at the break. But obviously the Bengals didn't score again. There's some concern if you back the Steelers that they had to settle for six Chris Boswell field goals. But one Ben Roethlisberger TD pass to Antonio Brown was called back by penalty. Tight end Ladarius Green suffered a concussion in the game, so he's very iffy for this one. He has emerged as the No. 2 option in the passing game, with at least 65 receiving yards in three of his past four games.

Ravens at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

Pittsburgh is a 5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 44. On the moneyline, the Steelers are -230 and Ravens +190. On the alternate lines, the Steelers are -5.5 (-105) and -4.5 (-115). Baltimore is 6-8 against the spread (1-5 on road) and 6-7-1 "over/under" (3-2-1 on road). Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS (4-2 at home) and 4-10 O/U (2-4 at home).

The Ravens have covered seven straight inside the division. They are 6-17 ATS in their past 23 in December. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a win. They are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 December games. The under is 5-1 in Baltimore's past six vs. the AFC North. It's 6-2 in Pittsburgh's past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 3-0-1 in the previous four.

Ravens at Steelers Betting Prediction

The Ravens have won the last three meetings against the Steelers in which they were underdogs, dating to the playoffs following the 2014 season. This year, the Ravens were 3-point underdogs at home in November and the beat the Steelers, 21-14, to end a four-game losing streak. Big Ben had returned much earlier than expected from a torn ligament in his knee and was terrible for three quarters. Two garbage TDs made it respectable. Baltimore didn't do much offensively, either, other than a Mike Wallace 95-yard TD catch-and-run. There were less than 560 total yards in the game and 28 total first downs.

It will be in the 40s in Pittsburgh on Sunday with a chance of rain. I certainly love the under as Baltimore's defense is one of the NFL's best and the Steelers have allowed 14 points per game during the winning streak. Give the 4.5-point alternate line as Pittsburgh takes the division.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 16

Sunday

Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)— First place is on line in AFC North. Baltimore won six of last seven series games; they upset Steelers 21-14 at home (+3) in Week 9; one of their two TDs came on a blocked punt. Ravens are 5-3 in last eight visits here. Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven games overall; they’re 0-4 SU/ATS in last four road games. Steelers won/covered their last five games, with four of those on road; they’re 4-2 as home favorites, with losses to Dallas/NE- their home wins are by 8-29-18-10 points. Pitt offense had only one TD LW at Cincy, kicked six FGs, not a good sign, but they did rally back from down 20-6 for an important road win. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Last three Raven games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.


Sunday Night

Broncos (8-6) @ Chiefs (10-4)— KC is 10-0 when it scores 19+ points, 0-4 when it does not. Denver has two offensive TDs on its last 35 drives; they’re 1-3 since their bye, scoring one first-half TD in four games. Broncos are 4-3 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 8-10-3 points on foreign soil. KC blew 14-0 lead in home loss to Titans LW; they’re 2-5 as a home favorite this year. Chiefs lost seven of last nine series games but won first meeting 30-27 (+3.5) in Denver four weeks ago; Broncos outgained them 464-273, but KC ran free kick back for a TD after a safety that gave Chiefs 2-0 lead. Denver won its last five visits here, all by 7+ points. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Under is 8-2 in Chiefs’ last ten games, 4-1 in Denver’s last five.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6020 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 11 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 MY IRON LADY 3/1

# 5 SOMETHING BLUE 7/2

# 7 SMOKIN UP 9/5

MY IRON LADY looks very good to best this field. When a handler brings any horse back this soon it is a positive signal. Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Is a key contender - given the 80 speed fig from her most recent race. SOMETHING BLUE - Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the contest. Salinas is trying to prove victorious with this one by bringing her back so soon. SMOKIN UP - The average Equibase class rating of 68 makes this one hard to beat. Strong jockey and conditioner combo winning 24 percent of their races working together.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday’s List of 13: Six most popular picks in Week 16 of the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Patriots (430) -16.5- W

5) Lions (433) +7

4) Ravens (456) +5.5

3) Raiders (501) -3.5- W

2) Buccaneers (593) +3- L

1) Steelers (603) -5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Oklahoma City -5 Over Minnesota

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: Take TULSA +5 over Illinois St

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: San Diego State Aztecs - 4 1/2