Winning Points
****BEST BET
*New England over Carolina by 31
It’s not a vintage Bill Belichick-Patriots team. That we know. But off two
straight road losses, the Patriots return home angry and ready to pour it on.
The timing is right for them as Carolina comes a calling.The Patriots are still
light years of John Fox’s ruined crew.The Panthers are averaging 13 points
in their last three games.They were fortunate to beat one-win Tampa Bay
last week at home getting out-gained 469-309 yards.Tom Brady still is Tom
Brady. He has a healthy Randy Moss and Wes Welker.The Panthers have no
attack.Their best runner, DeAngelo Williams, didn’t play last week because
of an injured ankle.Wide receiver Steve Smith is their only other playmaker.
He’s been rendered almost useless, though, because of Carolina’s quarterback
situation. Jake Delhomme probably remains out. Matt Moore is the
new starter.That’s one of the poorest quarterback tandems in the league.
Belichick will have no problem matching wits against either one.
Delhomme is a turnover waiting to happen, while Moore is inexperienced
and isn’t very good. If he were, he would have replaced Delhomme long
before Delhomme suffered a finger injury. Keep in mind, too, that Carolina
is without its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jordan Gross. New England
has uncharacteristically struggled on the road. However, the Patriots have
won their last five home contests by an average of 21.6 points.They are 43-
17-2 (71 percent) ATS as home chalk when meeting a non-division opponent.
Just one game ahead of the Jets and Dolphins in the AFC East, the
Patriots and Belichick are not going to look past this matchup.The Panthers
lack the capacity with their conservative ground-oriented offense to trade
points with New England or get a back-door cover. NEW ENGLAND 38-7.
***BEST BET
*Dallas over San Diego by 20
Simply put, December has not been the best of months for the Cowboys.
They are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games during December.Dallas is averaging
14.8 points in their last eight December games. San Diego, on the
other hand, has won 15 straight December games.The Chargers are 8-2 ATS
during their last 10 games played in December.Yet our play is to Dallas for
the following reasons: The Cowboys are home in their new billion-dollar
stadium,Tony Romo is hot and the Cowboys defense has gotten considerably
better since the beginning of the season. Peyton Manning, Brett Favre
and Drew Brees have been drawing all the quarterback attention.Yet quietly
Romo has put up a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last
seven games. He has been playing as well any quarterback. The Chargers
could be missing three of their key defensive players as nose guard Luis
Castillo, linebacker Shawne Merriman and safety Eric Weddle all missed last
week’s non-cover victory against the Browns.The Chargers rank among the
bottom teams in rushing.They rely on the passing talents of Philip Rivers.
But the Cowboys have surrendered more than 17 points just once in their
last six games. Dallas is allowing only 15.9 points per game during their last
10 games.The Cowboys have 29 sacks since Week 2. Dallas has the better
balance. San Diego is not only below average running the ball, but
mediocre in stopping the run.The game also means far more to Dallas.The
Cowboys are in a dogfight for a playoff spot. San Diego is leading its AFC
West Division and tied with Cincinnati for the second-best overall mark in
the conference.This is just the second time this season the Chargers will
be on artificial turf. DALLAS 34-14.
**PREFERRED
*CLOSE CALLS
Buffalo over *Kansas City by 9
This matchup really is bad on bad. But at least Buffalo tries and has some
talent.The Chiefs are simply dreadful. Kansas City ranks among the bottom
in total defense yielding nearly 400 yards per game.Terrell Owens hasn’t
done much this year. He’s clearly on the downside of his career. But against
inexperienced corners he still can come up big. He did this during Weeks
11 and 12 with a combined 14 receptions for 293 yards and two touchdowns
against the Jaguars and Dolphins. The Chiefs’ secondary is worse.
The Bills actually put up 54 points on the Chiefs last year. Buffalo has the
better running game with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson plus the two
best wideouts with Owens and Lee Evans as Dwayne Bowe remains under
suspension for the Chiefs. Matt Cassel has been a bust for the Chiefs. It
wouldn’t be shocking if Chiefs first-year coach Todd Haley benched him.
Haley hasn’t been real popular with his players. The Bills, on the other
hand, have played hard for interim coach Perry Fewell.The players seem to
want him as their head coach for next season. Buffalo has had three extra
days to rest and prepare, which is huge during this late time of year.The
Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in the past three years when laying points. BUFFALO
29-20.
*Oakland over Washington by 9
Do we dare take a shot with the Raiders? The spot works.The Redskins are
3-9 with an injury-riddled locker room having lost nine starters from opening
week, including their top two running backs and star tight end Chris
Cooley. Not only does Washington have no shot at the post-season, but also
no chance of even finishing .500. Now the Redskins have to make a long
journey to the West Coast following a home overtime loss to the undefeated
Saints in a game they should have won. It’s safe to point out that the
Redskins aren’t going to be real excited about this trip and game. Neither
team scores much. Oakland has been held to 10 points or less six times.
The Redskins have only broken the 17-point barrier in three of their past
11 games.The Raiders, though, are home and their spirits are high after a
shocking road upset victory against the defending Super Bowl champion
Steelers.The last time the Raiders were home, they upset Cincinnati. Bruce
Gradkowski is a journeyman quarterback, but he’s given the Raiders a little
spark in a Rocky sort of way. He’s certainly an upgrade on JaMarcus
Russell. The Redskins are 2-1-1 ATS in division playing opponents they
know. Outside of the NFC East, though, they are 3-5 ATS.OAKLAND 23-14.
Pittsburgh over *Cleveland by 11 (Thursday)
If the Browns could win one game, they would pick this Thursday matchup
against their hated division rival the Steelers. Pittsburgh has beaten
Cleveland the past 12 times, covering 10 of the matchups. Eric Mangini has
turned the Browns from bad to atrocious. It doesn’t help that the Browns
have lost four of their best defensive players with D’Qwell Jackson, Eric
Barton, Shaun Rogers and Brodney Pool all out for the season. Pittsburgh
out-gained Cleveland, 543-197, in the team’s Week 6 matchup but couldn’t
cover a 14-point spread winning, 27-14.The Steelers are 0-6 ATS against losing
teams, 4-11 ATS as a double-digit favorite. PITTSBURGH 24-13.
*Indianapolis over Denver by 10
With the AFC South Division in their hip pocket and a bulging three-game
lead for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Colts may shut
it down and start resting their stars. But that won’t happen until after this
home matchup.The Colts have won 21 consecutive regular-season games.
A victory against Denver puts them alone in the record books for most
regular-season victories in a row. The Broncos have been up-and-down.
They lost four straight by an average margin of 20 points and then in their
next two games they defeated the Giants and Chiefs by a combined 51
points. INDIANAPOLIS 29-19.
*Minnesota over Cincinnati by 4
The Bengals have been ‘dogs six times this season and won each game
straight-up.The Bengals have become heavily reliant on the run and playing
for field position.Their defense is giving up just 11.5 points per game
during the past six games. Cincinnati has run 61 percent of the time during
its past three games, an extremely high figure. Cedric Benson has five
100-yard rushing games this season. Minnesota, though, has one of the best
run defenses in the NFL. The Bengals have only three sacks in their last
three games. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS at home from December on under
Brad Childress. MINNESOTA 23-19.
New York Jets over *Tampa Bay by 3
The Jets’ game plan is going to be simple: Pressure the heck out of rookie
quarterback Josh Freeman and give Thomas Jones around 30-35 carries.
Jones has been most of the Jets’ offense averaging 113.8 yards rushing during
the past seven games. Rex Ryan isn’t going to get real cute with his
offense with the Jets still alive to win the AFC East. He’s not to going to take
chances throwing much with either rookie Mark Sanchez (check status) or
backup Kellen Clemens.The Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS since Freeman became
the starter. The rookie has been picked off 10 times in his five starts. NY JETS 16-13.
Green Bay over *Chicago by 6
Unless it’s St. Louis, the Bears can’t slow any team down or run the ball very
effectively. Oh, yes, Jay Cutler hasn’t exactly been the reincarnation of Sid
Luckman with his 20 interceptions. The results have been a 2-6 SU mark
and 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games for the Bears. Green Bay went
into its Monday night home game against the Ravens ranked first in total
defense and with a plus 17 turnover ratio.The Packers are 12-3 SU,11-4 ATS
in their last 15 games at Solider Field. The Bears have a number of key
injuries, including linebacker Lance Briggs, offensive left tackle Orlando
Pace and wide receiver Devin Hester. GREEN BAY 25-19.
New Orleans over *Atlanta by 11
The Saints had their scare and flat spot last week at Washington. Drew
Brees should encounter little resistance picking on Atlanta’s porous secondary.
That face on the milk carton by the way is John Abraham. He’s had
1 _ sacks since Week 2. There are reasons why Chris Redman is strictly
backup material.The Saints are plus 15 in takeaways/giveaways. More ominous
for the Falcons if starting quarterback Matt Ryan (check status) can’t
play, is the Saints have seven defensive touchdowns. The Falcons could
mount a challenge but they’re going to need Ryan and star running back
Michael Turner,who also looks doubtful. NEW ORLEANS 37-26.
*Baltimore over Detroit by 13
Even though the Ravens are on a short week having played at Green Bay
on Monday night, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘dog. Detroit is 1-5 ATS on
the road this season, being out-gained by an average of around 50 yards
away from Ford Field. Detroit ranked last in pass defense entering Week 13,
already having yielded seven games of 300-plus passing yards. Opposing
quarterbacks have torched the Lions for 28 touchdown passes. Baltimore
entered Monday’s matchup versus the Packers ranked No. 6 in run defense.
The Lions may have to rely on Kevin Smith on the ground more if Matthew
Stafford (check status) can’t play because of an injured shoulder. BALTIMORE 27-14.
Miami over *Jacksonville by 1
Jacksonville has won five straight at home. But the Jaguars also have failed
to cover in 11 of the past 13 times they’ve been a home favorite. Miami is
5-0 in December under Tony Sparano. The Dolphins also have covered in
nine of their last 13 away contests. Quarterback Chad Henne played his
best game last week turning from game-manager to downfield throwing
threat. The Jaguars have been without their best cornerback, Rashean
Mathis (check status), the past two games because of a groin injury.
Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard has thrown nine touchdowns at
home compared to just one on the road. MIAMI 24-23.
*Houston over Seattle by 10
Now that they’re off four straight division games – all losses – the Texans
probably will perform better since the pressure is off. Seattle is 1-5 SU and
ATS away from home this season.Their lone win and cover was versus the
1-11 Rams. The Seahawks lost their five away matchups by an average of
17.6 points per game. Seattle usually wears down late in the season
because of all the jet miles it lags. This marks the Seahawks’ fourth road
game in five weeks.The Texans are the more explosive team, but have too
much self-destruct in them to lay points with confidence.HOUSTON 27-17.
*Tennessee over St. Louis by 10
After five straight victories, the Titans failed to win or cover against their
hated division rivals the Colts this past Sunday. That’s significant because
the Titans may have trouble getting up for this lowly non-conference foe
with nothing on the line.Tennessee has failed to cover the past four times
after playing the Colts in its previous game. St. Louis has only one victory.
However, the Rams continue to play hard for first-year coach Steve
Spagnuolo, covering five of their last seven. Chris Johnson has seven
straight 100-yard rushing games. It would be a great rushing matchup of
Johnson against Steven Jackson –assuming Jackson’s back holds up. TENNESSEE 24-14.
*New York Giants over Philadelphia by 3
The Giants secondary has gotten healthier since Donovan McNabb picked
them apart in a 40-17 victory in Week 8. McNabb was 17-for-23 for 240
yards and three touchdowns. McNabb may be without his favorite deep
threat, DeSean Jackson. Also likely out is Brian Westbrook. The Giants are
just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, but they stayed alive with
a huge home win against Dallas last Sunday.This is a triple-revenge spot for
New York.The Eagles are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks.NY
GIANTS 24-21.
Arizona over *San Francisco by 1 (Monday)
The 49ers have covered 72 percent of their games since Mike Singletary
became head coach going 13-5-2 ATS. It’s a huge plus for San Francisco if
offensive left tackle Joe Staley (check status) is back from injury this week.
The 49ers have covered five of their past seven NFC West Division
matchups. Arizona’s 5-1 SU road record this season can’t be overlooked,
though.The Cardinals have learned to win on the road, outscoring their six
road foes, 161-91. The 49ers are tough versus the run, but vulnerable to
Arizona’s high-caliber passing attack.The Cards have revenge from a 20-16
opening week loss to San Francisco.ARIZONA 24-23.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: New Orleans at Atlanta – The Saints are averaging better
than 36 points per game and are quicker on carpet inside a dome.
OVER: Buffalo at Kansas City – These clubs put up 85 points when
they played last year and neither defense is very good this season.
UNDER: New York Jets at Tamp Bay – Two inexperienced quarterbacks
handing off a lot isn’t a formula for a shootout.
hno:
