Sunday 11/30/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

Free Pick on Buffalo Bills -

I know Buffalo is at a bit of a disadvantage having one less day to prepare after playing on Monday instead of Sunday, but I think they are showing some great value as a small home favorite. Buffalo is one of the more underrated teams in the NFL and have a bigger homefield advantage than they get credit for, especially late in the year when the weather turns bad. The Bills are 24-11 ATS at home in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992 and

I know the Browns keep winning, but I’m just not sold on this team. Cleveland has taken advantage of a very easy schedule this season. All five of the Browns wins outside their division have come against teams with losing records. They also haven’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. Their 6-24 loss to the Jaguars is evident of that.

One of the big reasons that I like Buffalo in this one is they should have the edge up front on both sides of the ball. The Bills come in 8th in the NFL against the run (98.4 ypg) and lead the league by a wide margin with 46 sacks (next best 38). They are also 5th against the pass (213.8 ypg). That combination of being able to stop the run and get after the quarterback, really puts a lot of pressure on Brian Hoyer. While Hoyer has played well in 2014, he’s been careless with the ball of late. After throwing just 2 interceptions in his first 7 games, he’s thrown 6 in his last 4 games.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has been getting pushed around up front all season. The Browns come in ranked 29th against the run (134.9 ypg) and are in the bottom half of the league with just 23 sacks. It’s also worth noting that Cleveland is not at full strength on defense right now. Starting free safety Tashaun Gipson is out indefinitely and star inside linebacker Karlos Dansby is questionable after missing last week’s game against Atlanta.

Adding to all of this is a great system in play backing a fade of the Browns. Road teams off an upset win as an underdog who have a winning record playing an opponent with a winning record are 66-112 ATS since 1983. That's a 63% long-term system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oliver Alonso

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bonus Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

As difficult as it may be to take Tampa Bay in this matchup, I think the Buccaneers are showing some decent value here as a home dog. Their loss to the Bears last week wasn’t as bad as the final score would indicate. Tampa Bay outgained the Bears by 163 yards, but were done in by a -3 turnover margin. Cincinnati is coming off a couple of big wins at New Orleans and Houston, but this is a team that has struggled with consistency all season.

One of the reasons I think this is a lower line than what you might have expected, is the fact that this will be the Bengals 3rd straight road game. Regardless of the opponent, it’s extremely hard for teams to get up three straight weeks on the road. We saw the Broncos stumble in a very similar spot just a couple weeks ago when they lost outright to the Rams 7-22 as a 8-point favorite.

I know the Tampa Bay offense has struggled to put up points, but they are moving the ball at a much better rate over their last 3 games than they had earlier in the year. The Buccaneers are averaging 356.3 ypg over their last 3, which is a huge improvement over their season average of 318.2. A big reason for their uptick has been the emergence of rookie wide out Mike Evans, who has caught 24 passes for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games. The Bengals defense isn’t great. Cincinnati ranks just 18th against the pass (243.5 ypg) and 27th against the run (129.6 ypg).

It’s not just the improvements offensively with Tampa Bay that have caught my eye. The Buccaneers are really playing well defensively. They held Chicago to only 204 total yards last week and are giving up just 302.0 ypg over their last 5. The Bengals offense hasn’t exactly been playing great of late, as they are averaging just 17.3 ppg over their last 3.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Bucs. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, who have won 25% or less of their games against an opponent with a winning record in the second half of the season are 50-20 ATS since 1983. That's a 71% system in favor of the Buccaneers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts

1* Bonus Play Washington Redskins.

RG III and company kept it close in San Francisco last weekend and I think the offensive unit will have a much easier time moving the ball against the Colts; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe this is too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side. Washington is just 3-8, but its overall stats simply aren’t that horrible. 7th overall in passing, 16th in rushing yards, 10th in opponent passing yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. How about the Colts? Indianapolis is No. 1 in the league in passing, but just 17th in rushing yards. It’s also dismal defensively, 27th in opponent passing yards and 17th in opponent rushing yards. Washington will have its opportunities on offense today. The Colts are on the road in Cleveland the following week, so this doesn’t set up as a “look ahead” spot, but note Andrew Luck and the Indinapolis offensive line looked pretty shaky vs. the Jaguars, Luck finished 21 of 32 for just 253 yards with one TD pass and ran eight times for 49 yards; but note that he was sacked five times, fumbled three times and lost two, all in the first half. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of suspect lines I always keep my eyes open for, consider a second look at WASHINGTON in this one.

AAA Sports

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens 1:00 ET

Chip's NFL FREE Winner San Diego Chargers

Chargers (+) over Ravens- The 'numbers' here just don't look good for San Diego as they travel cross country for this AFC match-up in Baltimore. The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games while Baltimore is 5-0 ATS after allowing 250 or more yards passing the previous game. Add that the Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Ravens makes things appear bleak. The Ravens are off a Monday night beating of the Saints but will find San Diego a tougher match. Phillip Rivers and play and with a little help he can win here. Take the CHARGERS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday's Free NFL Pick ---Indianapolis Colts -9.5---

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Colts, but I just don't trust this Redskins team on the road, especially off a big road game last week against the 49ers. Washington is a complete mess right now with all the drama surrounding the benching of RGII in favor of Colt McCoy. Indianapolis has had their struggles against the top team, but have more than held their own against the bottom feeders this season. They have beat the Jaguars by 27, Titans by 24, Giants by 16 and Jaguars again by 20. Ever other team they have played this season has won at least 5 games. You also have to factor how well the Colts defensive has played at home against bad teams. While they allowed 30 to Eagles and 42 to the Patriots, their 4 opponents at home have combined to score 33 points. Andrew Luck and Indianapolis's passing attack is going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, which should have the Colts winning here by at least 2 touchdowns and easily covering this 9.5-point spread.

Key Trend - Indianapolis is 22-9 (71%) ATS over the last 3 years after the 1st month of the season. BET THE COLTS -9.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons

Bonus Play Arizona Cardinals -2.5

With last weeks lose to the Seahawks the Cardinals have to win games to stay atop the NFC West. The Falcons are 0-6 when Matt Ryan throws a pick, and I dont see how he can come out of this game without one. The Cardinals defense will again play well enough to overcome their offensive struggles. Cardinals win a big game on the road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joseph D'Amico

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons

Bonus Play Arizona (Game 469)

Arizona remains on top of the NFC West and owns the NFC's best overall record at 9–2. Atlanta, despite a 4–7 mark is tied for the NFC South lead. Drew Stanton got off track last week but didn't have WR, Larry Fitzgerald, who is expected to return here. The Cardinals defense ranks #2 in the League, allowing just 17.7 PPG. The Cards stop-unit will get to pocket-passer, Matt Ryan and create turnovers. Neither team is known for their running game but Atlanta ranks dead- last in the NFL against the pass. Stanton loves to throw the pigskin. The Cardinals are 16-5 ATS their L21 games played vs. teams with a losing record, 16-5 ATS their L21 vs. the NFC, and 20-8 ATS their L28 overall games. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played following an ATS loss, 2-5 ATS their L7 games played in November, and 2-6 ATS their L8 overall games. Take Arizona. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons

Bonus Play Arizona (469) over Atlanta @ 4:05 Eastern

The line opened at -1-1/2 Arizona (9-2) it quickly went to -2-1/2, but since has dropped back down to -1-1/2 as we write. The lines makers have given great respect to the home field, yet the home field of 4-7 Atlanta. The Cardinals show off a horrible performance last week against the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in a 19-3 loss. Just remember Arizona was without Fitzgerald. Now ‘Zona must rebound on the road without the experience of QB Palmer taking snaps. So, base logic asserts a big game from QB Stanton is a must. After all, the Cardinals face a losing unit who is under .500 by three games, and really played poorly in a number of games. The key for Arizona is how well their defense plays considering they are #11 in the NFL holding the opposition to 17.7 points per game, and rated #3 stopping the run at 84.5 yards per outing. Atlanta is #26 running with 93 yards per game. We know the Falcons will be throwing (Ryan) on almost every down. Obviously, this is a recipe for disaster. The Falcons lost last Sunday 26-24 to Cleveland as we predicted in these pages. Hard to believe Atlanta is tied for first place in the pedestrian NFC South. QB Ryan increased his QBR with a 27-43 (273) performance. Still, the key here will be ball possession as being on the road I fully expect the Cardinals to run the football more, than not. The Falcons defense has allowed a runner 100+ yards in 21 straight games, and their defense ranks dead last in yards allowed. Techs have the Cardinals on a 5-1 ATS run in November and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road vs. a unit with a losing SU mark at home. Take the Cardinals on Sunday to come up with a much needed win!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ari Atari

New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Bonus Play Pittsburgh Steelers

Go with the Steelers who are 4-1 at home coming off a bye week. Saints haven't looked good all year especially on the road 1-4 and coming off a short week head into cold Pittsburgh. These teams haven't played each other since 2010 and game planning should favor the team coming off the bye. Saints need the win bad but coming off a short week and disappointing loss. Going into the cold against a tough, rested, defense and a raucous, steel curtain crowd and Big Ben who's had time to prepare, spells TROUBLE for the Saints. I'm shocked the line should be around -5.5 or higher but we're getting it -4 right now. Take Pittsburgh.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

NY Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Play - Jacksonville Jaguars

Edges - Jaguars: 6-1 ATS home after scoring 7 or less points last game; and 4-1 ATS in this series. Giants: 0-7 ATS versus AFC South opponents off a SU loss; and 0-5 ATS away versus opponent with single revenge-exact. With the Giants off a heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys and just 0-7 ATS in their 6th away game of season versus non-division opponent, we recommend a 1-unit play on Jacksonville. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

NY Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Bonus Play NY Giants

Sure it's been a hugely disappointing season for the Giants. But let's not get carried away. The Giants still are at least a level higher than the Jaguars.

Eli Manning versus Blake Bortles is a mismatch. Bortles has been a turnover machine and is getting worse the more he plays with his confidence shot. The Jaguars did not do him a favor by rushing him into the lineup. Bortles has become Geno Smith South with 15 interceptions while being sacked 27 times in nine games.

Manning has his best running back, Rashad Jennings, back plus Odell Beckham Jr. is developing into a star with 31 catches for 503 yards during his last four games.

The Giants' record is so poor because they have played a murderous schedule. This is their first easy opponent in eight weeks. Jacksonville's record is so poor because they are legitimately horrible.

This likely is Tom Coughlin's final season as Giants head coach. Coughlin still has enough pride to keep his team from suffering an embarrassing loss to this bad of a team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons 4:05 PM

Bonus Play Arizona Cardinals Pk

Atlanta continues to sport one of the worst defenses in the league at 26 PPG, 6.2 YPPL and a rush defense that allows foes to average 30 runs/game at 127/4.2. Yet, at 4-7 SU, they are amazingly tied for the NFC South Divisional lead. Those hopes take a major blow today against a far superior Arizona team. Despite last week’s 19-3 loss at Seattle (outrushed 124-64), Arizona remains with a 2 game lead in the loss column over Seattle. The current run dating to last year is 16-4 SU, ATS. Arizona has covered their last 6 roles as favorite extending the run from last year to 9-1 ATS in that role. In addition under HC Arians, the Cards have been a good bet to bounce back. They are on a run of 7-0 SU, ATS in non-division contests following a defeat. Compare that to Atlanta’s 4-12 ATS record in non-division frays. Amazingly, Arizona has posted this 9-2 SU record despite being outgained by an average of 18 YPG. A +10 net turnover margin will do that for you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

10* Bonus Play Pittsburgh Steelers -4

The Saints just lost at home to Baltimore. They had been solid choices at home with Drew Brees and QB and Sean Peyton as coach but now they go on the road and the Steelers need to keep up with the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North.

Big Ben has been solid passing the ball as he had 6 TD passes in two separate games.

I think we see Pittsburgh win by 7 or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Showdown!'

Two of the hottest teams and arguably the top two field generals in the league square off at Lambeau Field. New England Patriots manhandling Lions 34-9 this past week have won seven consecutive games (6-1 ATS) averaging 39.6 points/game while allowing a stingy 19.6 per/contest. Packers with their hands full in defeating Vikings 24-21 have won three straight (2-1 ATS) and seven of its last eight on the field (6-2 ATS) with a winning margin of 16.6 points/game. By benefit of being the home team, the Packers are a three-point favorite, which in the world of football betting essentially means that this is an even game. Patriots looking to make it eight straight, Packers aiming for six in-a-row at Lambeau Field, something has to give. Probably not a good idea to bet against Patriots in this spot. The 'Grouch In The Hoodie' is already 3-0 ATS this season taking points and since 2006 his troops are 16-4-1 ATS as regular season dogs including 12-4-1 ATS away from Gillette Stadium. Another bit of football handicapping research adds to the weight favoring New England. The Patriots haven't lost to an NFC North opponent since 2002 winning thirteen straight (9-4 ATS). High voltage offenses, the total is posted at a whopping 58.5. Well to note, the total has gone 'Over' in 7 of Patriots last 8 games and in 7 of Packers last 8. Since 2004 there have been nine regular season games with totals closing at 57 or more with 'Over' paying out 6 times over the span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens 1:00PM

5* Baltimore Ravens

Reason: 5* Play on Baltimore. After a hot 4-1 start to the season in which the Chargers covered the spread in all five games (including a one-point loss at Arizona and an outright underdog win at home vs. Seattle), San Diego has since gone 0-6 against the spread and seem to be getting worse as the season goes on. We'll fade the Chargers this Sunday and back the Ravens to stay in the hunt for the AFC North Division lead.

Ravens come in a bit underrated but at 7-4 with quality losses against winning teams in Cincinnati (twice), Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis, they are better than most realize. We backed Baltimore in their outright win at New Orleans last week, and we'll back them again to win easily against a San Diego offense that has only scored 40 points combined in their last three games. Ravens are 4-1 SU and ATS here at home where they are outscoring foes by a full 15 ppg. More of the same this week as San Diego's slide continues! 5* Play on Baltimore.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens 1:00PM

Bonus Play Baltimore Ravens

Reason: I'm recommending a play on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore snapped back from a 2-game skid to beat the Titans & Saints the last two weeks. SDG comes to town following a couple of home wins, but the Chargers have not fared well on the road. In fact, they have dropped three straight ATS, allowing 28, 35, and 37 points to be scored. The offense got a boost last week with the return of Ryan Mathews, but while he's expected to play today, he did bang his shoulder again last weekend and is not expected to be 100% healthy. Baltimore doesn't need any help, ranked 6th against the run, allowing just 88 yards per game. The Ravens have held their "guests" to 30 points in their last four home games, combined, while the offense has averaged 28.5 ppg. Joe Flacco directs a balanced attack and I expect Baltimore to be able to run right at the Chargers' middle-of-the-pack run defense. SDG has lost six straight ATS, while the Ravens are on a 4-0 ATS run at home. I'm laying the points with Baltimore on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[wolf0fvegas]

Please post Philly Godfather & Marco D'Angelo if you have the plays.

Thank$

 

[KillerSportsPlays]

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CPAW, can you explain why the posts I made this morning were shipped over here and not added in the Service Plays area?
And can you also explain when I gave you excess to 40 handicappers it was ok, but after several complained about their plays being posted and the network shutting them down and I asked what was exceptable and you told me one thing but Defying and Betitall say something different. Can't you help a guy out here??? Be a standup guy and go to bat for a poster.