NFL
Week 13
Redskins (3-8) @ Colts (7-4)-- Washington switches to McCoy at QB here, after three straight losses with Griffin at QB- they scored two TDs on 22 drives in last two games, with seven 3/outs. Redskins are 3-3 as road underdogs this year; four of their last five road games were decided by 4 or less points; they won McCoy's other start this season, in OT at Dallas. Indy split last four games but covered four of last five at home; they're 3-0 this year when laying 7+ points. Colts won last two series games 36-22/27-24; AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-12-1, 4-6 on road. Seven of last ten Colt games went over total; four of last five Washington games stayed under.
Titans (2-9) @ Texans (5-6)-- Mallett only lasted two games as Houston QB before he got hurt and is done for year, so back to Fitzpatrick for Texans, who won at Tennessee 30-16 (-3) in Week 8, running ball for 212 yards with +2 turnover ratio in Mettenberger's first NFL start. Houston won four of last five series games, winning 38-14/30-24ot in last two played here. Titan defense is having trouble getting off field; opponents are 19 of 32 on third down in last two games. Tennessee covered once in last five road games, with four losses by 14+ points; they've scored only six TD in 13 red zone drives in last four games. Houston lost its last three home games. Six of last eight Titan games went over total. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games.
Browns (7-4) @ Bills (6-5)—Cleveland coach Pettine was Bills’ DC last year. When three 7-4 teams are tied for last in a division, you know there is strength there. AFC North teams are 17-9-1 vs spread outside division. Browns won four of last five games, winning at Saints/Texans last two weeks. Short road trip here is their third week in row on road, historical soft spot (Denver’s loss at St Louis in Week 11). Snow was gone from Ralph Wilson Stadium as of Tuesday noon; Bills go on short week after waxing listless Jets Monday night. Buffalo scored 17 or fewer points in four of five losses; they’re 4-1 when scoring 20+, are 2-3 SU at home this season. Last three Cleveland games, four of last five Buffalo games stayed under total.
Chargers (7-4) @ Ravens (7-4)-- San Diego is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing its last two road games 35-21/37-0, after Chargers covered first three games as an underdog this season. Bolts lost field position in five of last six games, after winning it in first five. Baltimore won/covered last four home games by average score of 29-8, allowing total of three TDs on last 39 drives in home games; they ran ball for 366 yards in last two games. Ravens are 5-4 in last nine series games, with three of last four meetings decided by 5 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4; AFC West teams are 17-11 vs spread outisde their division, 7-3 as road underdogs. Three of last four Baltimore games went over the total.
Giants (3-8) @ Jaguars (1-10)-- Giants lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 1-4 on road this year, but did cover only game as favorite (Week 5 vs Atlanta). Coach Coughlin was first coach in Jax history, getting them in playoffs in their second season. First home game in five weeks for Jaguars, who are 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 27-8-14 with an upset of Cleveland. Giants scored 30+ points in all three wins this year; they've been outscored in second half of last six games (total of 52-10 in last three). Home teams won last five series games; Giants' wins are by 3-7-4 points- they haven't been here since '06. Four of last five Giant games went over total; five of last seven Jax games stayed under. Jaguars allowed average of 166.3 rushing yards in last four games, a red flag.
Bengals (7-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-9)-- Tampa Bay is 0-5 at home this season, with three losses by 6 or less points; they've turned ball over 13 times in last five games (-7), ran ball for only 69 ypg last three weeks. Cincy won four of last five games, holding Texans to one TD on 17 drives last two weeks, but this is their third week in row on road, soft spot in NFL history. Bengals scored 17 or less points in all three losses. Bucs won last six series games, with four of six wins by 3 or less points; Bengals lost two of their three visits here, with last visit in '06. AFC North teams are 10-1-1 SU vs NFC South teams, which are 10-21 vs spread outside their division. AFC North road favorites are 2-5. Last five Tampa games, last three Bengal games stayed under total.
Raiders (1-10) @ Rams (4-7)-- Oakland had extra three days to prep after getting its first win vs Chiefs last Thursday; Raiders covered three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 5-7-10-6-7 points. St Louis was underdog of 7+ points in six of last eight games; tough schedule- they're favored for first time since getting thumped by Vikings (with Peterson) in season opener. Rams are 4-4 as home favorites in Fisher era- they beat Seahawks/Broncos in last two home games. Raiders are 8-4 in series, but lost two of last three; this is their first visit here since '02. AFC West road underdogs are 7-3 outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 5-7. Six of last nine Ram games, three of last four Oakland games went over total.
Saints (4-7) @ Steelers (7-4)-- Pittsburgh won last five post-bye games, allowing 9.8 ppg, with four of five staying under. New Orleans is 4-7 despite being favored in 10 of its 11 games; they lost at home last three weeks; are 1-4 on road, with only win at Carolina in last road game. Over last four games, Saint opponents are 30-55 on third down- NO has only two takeaways in last three games. Steelers won four of last five games, are 4-1 at home, with odd loss to Bucs in Week 4; Pitt scored 41.3 ppg in winning last three home tilts, by 7-17-20 points. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 37-14/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; NFC South road dogs are 5-7. Four of last five Pitt games went over.
Panthers (3-7-1) @ Vikings (4-7)-- Hard to lay points with Minnesota squad that hasn't averaged 6.0 ypa since Week 4 vs Falcons; their last two opponents were 16 for 28 on third down. Carolina is 1-7-1 since 2-0 start, still only half-game out of first; Panthers allowed 75 points in two games (0-1-1) on artifical turf this season- they lost last three post-bye games by combined score of 71-23. Minnesota is 1-0 as a favorite this year; four of its last five games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Carolina is 1-3 in last four games as road dog, allowing 37+ points in all four games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Carolina games, five of last six Viking games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (9-2) @ Falcons (4-7)-- Arizona has two TDs on 19 drives in last two games; they have to be more cautious, with no viable backup behind Stanton. Redbirds are 4-1 on road, losing for first time last week; in last three games, Arizona ran ball 68 times for 138 yards. Atlanta is 0-7 outside its division; three of its last four games were decided by 1 or 2 points. Falcons have nine takeaways in last three games (+6); they're +5 for season and are still just 4-7. Home side won last seven series games; Cards lost last six visits here, with last win in '93. NFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games. NFC West road favorites are 6-1. Cardinals won two of three games this year on artificial turf. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under total.
Patriots (9-2) @ Packers (8-3)-- Since 2003, NE is 15-6-1 as road underdog, but they are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games on grass. Pats won last seven games, covering last four, scoring 42.5 ppg. Over last six games, Patriots are 41-76 on 3rd down; they've run 70+ plays in each of last four games. Packer opponents are 13-40 on third down in last three games; Pack won seven of last eight games, covering last four at home; outscoring opponents 128-9 in first half. Packers are 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning all five games by 7+ points. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread, 6-4 on road. NFC North favorites are 7-5. Over is combined 17-5 in these teams' games; 8-3 in Patriot games, 9-2 in Green Bay's.
Broncos (8-3) @ Chiefs (7-4)-- KC had three extra days to prep after losing at Oakland last game; Broncos (-12) beat Chiefs 24-17 in Week 2, despite KC having 75-46 edge in plays (Chiefs were 11-16 on 3rd down, Denver 3-8). KC's two empty trips to red zone were difference. Denver is on road for 4th time in five weeks; they won last three visits here by 7-8-7 points, but are 2-3 on road, with only wins at Jets/Raiders. Chiefs covered nine of last 10 games, won five of last six; they've won last four home games, beating the Pats/Seahawks. KC allowed 204-179 rushing yards in last two games, red flag after 201 yards Denver ran for last week. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Seven of last eight Denver games went over total. KC safety Berry is out after a mass was discovered in his chest this week; our thoughts and prayers are with him.
Dolphins (6-5) @ Jets (2-9)-- Miami won five of last six visits here, winning 30-9/23-3 in last two in series where road team won last four games. Jets covered against Packers-Pats-Steelers, all good teams, are 0-7-1 vs spread in other eight games; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points, evidence of lack of heart once they fall behind- they were outscored 56-9 in second half of last four games. Smith gets nod at QB for Jets, who are 2-4 at home, with losses by 8-7-14-20 points. Since 2006, Jets are 8-16-1 vs spread in divisional home games. Dolphins won four of last six games, losing last two on road, at Lions/Denver. Over is 28-10 in nationally televised primetime games this year. Five of last six Miami games, last three Jet games stayed under total.
