Sunday 11/2/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services

11/2: Sunday NFL Free Pick: Play Dallas/Arizona Under the total. Arizona is a great defensive team and the under is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 games on fieldturf. Dallas has a run-first offense, which chews up yards and the clock. The under is 5-2 in the Cowboys last 7 games following a S.U. loss and this shapes up as a battle of field goals.

Play Arizona/Dallas under the total.
 
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Mr. Vegas

Free Sunday NFL Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/02 01:25 PM NFL (467) DENVER BRONCOS VS (468) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Take: BRONCOS/(468) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: The weather in New England is lousy for this showdown, 20 MPH winds, cloudy, rainy, windy, maybe even some snow. This won’t be the shootout the oddsmakers are telling you. Bill Belchick plays Peyton manning differently than any other QB, playing the safeties and DBs back and forcing long drives. Now he has a pair of big physical corners who are exceptional in Brandon Brower and Derrelle Revis, top 3 in the NFL in pass defense after being awful the last four years. I’m backing the weather and Belichick’s improved defense. Play the Broncos/Patriots Under the total!
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NFL Pick for Sunday, November 2, 2014: 4:25 PM ET

(469) OAKLAND RAIDERS VS (470) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Take: (469) OAKLAND RAIDERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 2nd is in the NFL contest between the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. The defending World Champion Seahawks have struggled to return to that dominating form they showed last season. the Seahawks are just 4-3 this season, losing two of their last three games including a close win last week over Carolina, 13-9. The Hawks have failed to cover three straight and are just 3-4 ATS this season. Seattle's dominating defense has struggled at times this season, allowing 28 points to the St Louis Rams and 30 points to Dallas in back-to-back games. The defense ranks 10th in scoring and 10th against the pass. The team also suffered some clubhouse issues when they dealt Percy Harvin to the Jets a few weeks ago, prompting some outcry from other players on the team. The Raiders are still looking for that first win this season and likely won't get it here, one of the toughest places to play on the road. The one good thing for the Raiders here is that they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. We get two TD's with the Raiders here and in the NFL that's a big chalk to cover, even against the winless Raiders. Hard to imagine Seattle getting very excited for the Raiders visit here. With their poor play of late, this is just too many points to pass on. Take the Raider as your FREE play on Sunday.
 
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Art Aronson

NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs

1* Bonus Play New York Jets.

The oddsmakers aren’t giving the 1-7 New York Jets much of a chance this weekend, they’ve opened as a double-digit underdog. After making significant strides against two playoff bound teams (including a tough 27-25 setback in New England), New York would lay an egg in front of the home town crowd in last week’s embarrassing 43-23 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The pathetic effort means that we’ve seen the last of Geno Smith as starting QB for the foreseeable future, and backup Mike Vick will finally get his shot in the Big Apple. I think change is a good thing, I had the Redskins on Monday night and Colt McCoy definitely proved that statement correct. From a trend based angle, this is a strong play as well, note already 1-0 ATS this year as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Jets are 3-0 ATS in the same position over the last two. I also think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Kansas City after its big divisional victory over the Chargers last week; note that the Chiefs are just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with losing records and only 7-12 ATS their last 19 at home. “Desperation” is often a factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s the case here in my opinion. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up; consider a second look at the JETS in this one.

AAA Sports
 
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Jimmy Boyd

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns

Free Pick on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +

I think Cleveland is getting way too much respect against the Buccaneers. I really liked what I saw from the Browns early on, but the offense has not looked good since starting center Alex Mack went down with an injury. Cleveland managed just 266 yards of total offense in a shocking 6-24 loss to Jacksonville in Week 7 and only accumulated 306 yards against the Raiders. In fact, the Browns were outgained on the game by Oakland 387 to 306. I’m not saying Cleveland shouldn’t be favored in this matchup, but 6.5-points is way too much.

I’ll admit that I expected a lot more out of this Tampa Bay team than what we have seen so far, but they have had some promising performances of late. They went on the road and beat the Steelers 27-24 in Week 4 and nearly upset the Saints on the road in a 31-37 overtime defeat. It’s also worth noting that 4 of the Buccaneers 6 losses have come by 6-points. I expect this team to continue to play hard under Lovie Smith and I look for them to keep improving as the season goes on.

One of the big problems for Tampa Bay this season has been their inability to get anything going on the ground. They have rushed for less than 90 yards in each of their last 5 games. If there’s a team that can help the Buccaneers have some success running the ball, it’s the Browns. Cleveland comes in 30th in the league, giving up an average 143.4 ypg, and their 4.8 yards/carry allowed is the 31st worst mark. This should have Tampa Bay’s offense poised for one of their better performances of the season and with the way Cleveland’s offense has struggled since the injury to Mack, it wouldn’t come as a huge shock if the Buccaneers won this game outright.

This has been the time of year where the Buccaneers have really started to show some value. Over the last 3 seasons, Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of November. They are also an impressive 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 4 of their last 6 games.

Couple of nice systems in play as well. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 2 out of their last 3 games with a marginal winning record (51% to 60%) against a team with a losing record are just 36-72 (33%) ATS since 1983, while road underdogs who have won 25% or less of their games after a stretch of 5 games where they have been beaten by the spread by 42 or more combined points are 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Tampa Bay!
 
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Chip Chirimbes

Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings

Chip's FREE Sunday Play Minnesota Vikings (+) over Redskins-

The Redskins have more problems then their nickname. Viking have shown they can win at home...Take MINNESOTA
 
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Jimmy Adams

NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Bonus Play Kansas City Chiefs

What a disaster the Jets have become. Losers of 7 straight, they now must go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. It's pretty clear by now that Rex Ryan just isn't cut out to be a head coach in the NFL. He and his brother are decent assistants, but it's time for some major changes in New York. Geno Smith threw for a total of 5 yards and was picked off 3 times before being benched in favor of Michael Vick last week. I don't know that we've ever seen a performance that horrific, and the bad news is that Vick didn't play much better. Vick ran for 153 yards with an interception and lost 2 fumbles after replacing Smith. Giving away the ball like that won't win you any games, especially against a solid Chiefs stop unit, known for forcing turnovers.

So Vick's now the starter and his first start comes against the coach that knows him best, Andy Reid. Vick played for Reid in Philadelphia, so Reid will know exactly what to do in terms of defending him. It won't be very difficult, because Vick is pretty much washed up at this point in his career. He's lost most of his athleticism and remains injury prone.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. This defense is #1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing only 195.7 passing ypg. They also rank 3rd overall in points allowed at just 18.3. This anemic Jets offense against a Chiefs D that is one of the best in league spells out an easy win for us. Take the Chiefs.
 
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Steve Janus

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday's Free NFL Pick ---Cincinnati Bengals -10---

I know this is a big number to lay in the NFL, but I really like Cincinnati in this spot. The Bengals got a huge win last week over Baltimore and I look for them to carry over that momentum with one of their best showing of the season against Jacksonville. The Bengals also get a big emotional lift here with the return of wide out A.J. Green, who is without question their most important offensive player. The Jaguars have shown some signs of being more competitive, but it's come against mediocre and bad teams. They are not ready to compete with a team like Cincinnati. Turnovers have been a major problem for Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense and I don't expect them to play a clean game against a Cincinnati defense that has forced 2 or more turnovers in 5 of their 7 games. You also have to factor in the Bengals have a big time homefield advantage that tends to get overlooked by the public.

Key Trends - Bengals are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 in the 2nd half of the season against bad defensive teams who are giving up 5.65+ yards/play, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record. BET THE BENGALS!
 
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Tony George

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans

Sunday NFL Bonus Play Philadelphia Eagles -2 @ Houston

Well Houston will have their hands full here and they never fare well against the NFC, and or elite teams either. The key to Philly despite the picks thrown by QB Foles being an issue is the re-commitment to run and the past 2 weeks RB McCoy has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and quitter frankly the OL is vastly healthier for the Eagles as well. We also catch Philly coming off a road loss ion game at 6-1 Arizona they should have and could have won.

While Houston’s running game with RB Foster is their only option, you always ask yourself who has the better QB and it is a no brainer that QB Fitzpatrick is a liability and not an asset and his throws picks folks. Wins over Redskins, Raiders, Titans and Bills are hardly a list of teams who frankly impress me as big wins for the Texans, I like Philly’s balanced attack, fast pace and 1-2 punch at RB and big play maker WR Macklin here to get back on track. I can assure you Philly, with a red hot Dallas team in their division, will have a sense of priority and awareness coming into this game, and will approach this as a big game, and while JJ Watt for Houston is a playmaker, this style of offense is not to his liking.

Philly – Lay the points here
 
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Brad Diamond

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Bonus Play (466) San Francisco/STL UNDER 44 @ 4:05 Eastern

NFL TOTAL ACTION

Realize the Niners (4-3) are coming off a bye, while the staggering Rams (2-5) show after the KC debacle. San Francisco won the initial game in the series back on October 13th 31-17 in St. Louis. With the game being played out on the Bay this Sunday, it should be more difficult for the Rams to be successful considering their injured offensive line. So, despite the obvious I’m going to go to the total card as my projection in a lowing scoring game with STL trying to stay close with defense and special teams. We know the Niners have similar physical issues since training camp, but on defense. Last time out the defense was mauled by Manning up in Denver, again this is St. Louis. The total has moved slightly down from the opener. San Francisco is 4-0 UNDER off a SU loss, 5-2 UNDER at home. The Rams field at 5-1 UNDER on the road and 4-0 UNDER after scoring 15 or less in their previous game. STL is 3-1 UNDER before playing Arizona. The last four games in the series have gone UNDER, OVER, UNDER and OVER. On Sunday afternoon stay low!
 
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Bill Biles

NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Free Pick= Kansas City Chiefs -9.5

The Chiefs have a top defense in the NFL, and that does not bode well for the Jets and new starter Michael Vick. Chiefs will force Vick to make some mistakes and get short fields for the Chiefs offense to work with.
 
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Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns

Play - Tampa Bay Bucs

Edges - Bucs: 5-0 ATS in 4th away game of season; and 6-1 ATS off BB SU losses versus .500 or greater opponents before facing the Falcons. Browns: 0-5 ATS in 5th home game of season versus foe off non-division contest; and 1-4 ATS home versus NFC South. With Bucs’ boss Lovie Smith at his best as a dog in games versus an opponent off a SU win (6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS when off a loss of six or more points), we recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
 
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Ray Monohan

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

5* FREE NFL O/U Play OVER

Brady vs. Manning again. It says a lot making the Pats an underdog at home but I don’t think it says enough that they are only +3, with what I think is a HIGH total of 55. Brady may be finding his rhythm offensively but I don’t like the Pats defense to be able to contain the Broncos all that much.

Manning is having another strong season and is surrounded by the stronger supporting cast. Especially defensively where the Broncos have the right players up front to hassle Brady. This might be a playoff preview but won’t be one for the ages.

Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 16-4-1 in Broncos last 21 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Broncos last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 40-15 in Patriots last 55 games on fieldturf.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.
 
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Carlo Campanella

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

10* Bonus Play On San Diego Chargers

Loved Miami as our 10* Bonus Play last Sunday and they didn't disappoint us, easily handling instate rival, Jacksonville, 27-13. This Sunday is much different as they host a solid Chargers team that is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Their defense is stringy, holding their first 5 foes this season to 21 points or less and offensively QB Rivers is having one of his best seasons of his career while averaging 25.6 points per game! San Diego is 5-3 SU this year, with ALL 3 losses coming against winning teams- Denver (6-1), Arizona (6-1) and Kansas City (4-3), who own a combined 16-5 record this year. The Chargers come off back-to-back losses, but both were against AFC West division rivals and those division battles are tough with since the teams know each other so well. San Diego is too talented to lose 3 straight games, especially knowing that they're 4-0 ATS on the road after losing 2 straight Division games with QB Rivers starting under center.
 
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'Showdown of the week'

One of the most anticipated games of the weekend has future Hall of Fame quarterback's Peyton Manning and Tom Brady facing off against each other for the 16th time. Last year the pivots split a pair with Brady getting the upper hand in Wk12 at Gillette Stadium but Manning exacting sweet revenge at Mile High defeating Patriots in the AFC Conference title game. Despite the that loss, Brady typically beats Manning when the two face off against each other winning 10 out of 15 encounters (8-6-1 ATS) including a smart 7-2 (5-3-1 ATS) in Foxboro. Denver ridding a 4-0 SU/ATS stretch with a winning margin of 18.5 points/game have been given the nod by the oddsmaker as they've opened Broncos 3-point road favorites. Probably not a good idea to bet against Patriots in this spot. Since the 'Grouch In The Hoodie' took over in NE the Patriots have been home underdogs 12 times cashing nine tickets over the span including 5-1 ATS when revenging a loss. A final betting nugget. Patriots have won 13 consecutive home games.
 

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English Premier TODAY 13:30
Man CityvMan Utd
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS119/20

14/5

3

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAN CITYRECENT FORM
HDAWHWADALHL
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KEY STAT: Man City have conceded in every Premier League home game this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Goals should be on the menu at the Etihad with Manchester City and Manchester United fancied to notch. Both teams have an array of attacking stars on show, with United boasting Angel Di Maria, Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney among their ranks while City are led by arguably the best of the bunch – a fit and in-form Sergio Aguero.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1


REFEREE: Michael Oliver STADIUM:

 

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English Premier TODAY 16:00
Aston VillavTottenham
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2590.png
HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS13

5/2

21/20

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ASTON VILLARECENT FORM
AWHLALHLALAL
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KEY STAT: Villa last beat Tottenham in 2008 – a run of 12 games

EXPERT VERDICT: A lack of goals and poor home form point to an away win at Villa Park. Aston Villa have managed to score just four goals all season – the lowest tally in the Premier League – and the head-to-head record offers no respite for Paul Lambert either. Tottenham won all three matches between the teams last season.

RECOMMENDATION: Tottenham
3


REFEREE: Neil Swarbrick STADIUM:

 

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