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Week 9 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Chargers at Dolphins (-1 ½, 44 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 8 Recap:
-- The Chargers have dropped two straight following a 5-1 start, as San Diego fell short at Denver, 35-21. Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes in the loss, while the running game racked up just 61 yards. The loss drops San Diego to 2-2 on the road, as the Lightning Bolts failed to cover as an underdog for the first time in four tries.
-- The Dolphins return home following consecutive road victories at Chicago and Jacksonville. Miami cashed last Sunday as seven-point favorites, 27-13, even though the Dolphins didn’t pick up their first down until late in the first half. The Dolphins have covered nine of their past 14 games dating back to last November.

Previous meeting: Miami held off San Diego, 20-16 as 2 ½-point home underdogs last season, as the Chargers gained 435 yards in the loss. The home team has won each of the past four meetings, while the ‘under’ has hit in 10 straight matchups since 1995.

What to watch for: The Dolphins have covered just two of their past six in the role of a home favorite, including a loss to the Chiefs in Week 3. Under Mike McCoy, the Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog, while San Diego has cashed four of the past five as an away ‘dog against teams outside of the AFC West since 2012.

Eagles (-1 ½, 48 ½) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST

Week 8 Recap:
-- Philadelphia and Arizona played one of the most entertaining games of the season, but the Eagles fell, 24-20 to suffer their second loss. The Eagles led 20-17 before allowing a 75-yard touchdown pass with less than 90 seconds remaining, as Nick Foles attempted 62 passes and threw for 411 yards in the defeat to remain one half-game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East.
-- The Texans rebounded from their meltdown at Pittsburgh in Week 7, as Houston trounced Tennessee as short road favorites, 30-16. Arian Foster found the end zone three times, while the Texans rushed for 212 yards to improve their mark to 4-4 on the season.

Previous meeting: The Eagles outlasted the Texans, 34-24 at Lincoln Financial Field back in December 2010 to cover as 8 ½-point favorites. Philadelphia put up the final 14 points of the game, as LeSean McCoy scored a pair of touchdowns and racked up 130 all-purpose yards. The Eagles are making their first trip to Houston since opening day of the 2006 season, as Philadelphia cruised past Houston, 24-10 as six-point favorites.

What to watch for: The Texans are riding a three-game streak to the ‘over,’ but has scored exactly 17 points in each of three contests against NFC East opponents this season. Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the role of a road favorite, as Philadelphia is laying points on the highway for the first time this season in four away contests.

Cardinals at Cowboys (-3, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 8 Recap:
-- Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 as the Cardinals connected on touchdown passes of 75 and 80 yards in the second half. The Cardinals remain the biggest surprise in the league at 6-1, while improving to 4-0 at home and not allowing more than 20 points in four contests played at University of Phoenix Stadium.
-- The Cowboys were tripped up by the Redskins in overtime, 20-17, as Dallas failed to cover as nine-point home favorites. Tony Romo left the game with a back injury, but returned late in the fourth quarter, to no avail. Dallas’ six-game winning streak was snapped, while dropping to 2-3 ATS at home.

Previous meeting: These teams have hooked up four times in Arizona since 2006, with two of those games heading to overtime. The Cardinals knocked off the Cowboys, 19-13 in December 2011 as four-point underdogs, as Kevin Kolb hit LaRod Stephens-Howling for a 52-yard touchdown strike in overtime. Arizona heads to Dallas for the first time since 2005, as the Cowboys drilled the Cardinals, 34-13 to cash as 9 ½-point favorites.

What to watch for: Romo is listed as questionable with the back injury suffered on Monday, as the Cowboys have compiled a 7-22 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of 2010. In Bruce Arians’ short tenure as head coach of the Cardinals, Arizona has covered eight of 12 times in the underdog role.

Rams at 49ers (-10, 43 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 8 Recap:
-- The Rams couldn’t quite maintain their momentum from a Week 7 victory over Seattle, as St. Louis was trounced across I-70 in a 34-7 beatdown at Kansas City. St. Louis suffered its worst loss since a 28-point setback to Minnesota in the season opener, as the Rams have allowed at least 31 points in five games this season.
-- The 49ers are fresh off the bye week, looking to recover from the 42-17 at the hands of the Broncos two weeks ago. San Francisco allowed its most points since Super Bowl XLVII against Baltimore (34) in January 2013, while the Niners had their three-game SU/ATS winning streak snapped.

Previous meeting: These NFC West rivals met just three weeks ago at the Edward Jones Dome, as the 49ers erased an early 14-0 deficit to stomp the Rams, 31-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. Colin Kaepernick shredded the St. Louis defense for 343 yards and three touchdowns, as the Niners improved to 5-1-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in the past seven matchups.

What to watch for: St. Louis owns a dreadful 3-8 SU/ATS record in its past 11 games in the role of a road underdog, as one of those victories came back in Week 2 at Tampa Bay. Since 2011, the 49ers have bounced back at home off a loss pretty well, posting a 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS record, but some of those ATS defeats came as a double-digit favorite.

Broncos (-3, 54 ½) at Patriots – 4:25 PM EST

Week 8 Recap:
-- Peyton Manning continued to pile on his newest record of most touchdown passes in league history with three more in Denver’s 35-21 home victory over San Diego. The Broncos failed to cash their first three games this season, but have turned into ATS gold recently with four consecutive covers, all of at least 6 ½-point favorites.
The Patriots are also rolling with four straight wins following a 2-2 start, as New England obliterated Chicago at home, 51-23 as 5 ½-point favorites. Tom Brady tossed five touchdowns, while the Patriots scored 31 points in the second quarter to eclipse the ‘over’ for the fifth consecutive contest.

Previous meeting: Denver eliminated New England in the AFC Championship game this past January, 26-16 as five-point home favorites. The Broncos racked up 509 yards of offense, avenging a 34-31 overtime loss in Foxboro last November, as Denver blew a 24-0 lead.

What to watch for: Since Manning arrived in Denver back in 2012, the Broncos have taken care of business as a road favorite, posting an incredible 10-3 ATS record. Amazingly, this is the second time in less than a month that New England is receiving points at home, as the Patriots were last a home underdog prior to this season in 2005 – against Manning’s Colts and lost 40-21.
 
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SNF - Ravens at Steelers

BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Baltimore -1, Total: 48

Division rivals clash on Sunday night when the Ravens visit the hated Steelers.

Baltimore fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last week, while Pittsburgh beat the Colts 51-34 behind 522 passing yards and six touchdowns from QB Ben Roethlisberger. When these teams met in Week 2, the Ravens crushed the Steelers 26-6 as 2.5-point home underdogs. But Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in the past 15 home meetings with Baltimore, and Roethlisberger is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) when hosting the Ravens at home over the past five seasons, passing for 243.8 YPG in those contests with five total touchdowns and just 2 INT. Since 1992, the Ravens are 44-23 ATS after playing a game where 50 or more total points are scored.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 12-4 ATS after the first month of the season over the past two years and are also 26-11 ATS in home games after allowing 6+ yards per play in their previous game since 1992. WR Torrey Smith (concussion), CB Jimmy Smith (foot) and TE Owen Daniels (knee) are questionable for Baltimore. Pittsburgh's main injuries are on the defensive side of the ball with NT Steve McLendon (shoulder) and S Shamarko Thomas (hamstring).

The Ravens were unable to come away with a road victory over the Bengals last week, but they have still won two of their past three and five of their past seven contests. QB Joe Flacco (2,049 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) was miserable against the Bengals, throwing for just 195 yards with zero touchdowns and two picks. He’ll need to limit his ill-advised throws against a Pittsburgh secondary that will make him pay. One player who did step up against the Bengals was RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (226 rush yards, 4 TD). The running back rushed seven times for 27 yards and two touchdowns in the game and also caught two passes for 42 yards. He’ll continue to get the goal-line carries for this team, but he could have trouble against a tough defensive front on Sunday.

The Ravens are going to need WR Steve Smith Sr. (41 rec, 675 yards, 4 TD) to get himself back on track. After a sizzling start to the season, which included six catches for 71 yards versus Pittsburgh, Smith has just six catches for 102 yards over the past two weeks combined. The Ravens defense has been very good this season, allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). They had not given up more than 20 points in a game in the four weeks before allowing 27 to Cincinnati.

The Steelers put a beating on the Colts last week with 51 points and 639 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger (2,380 pass yards, 16 TD, 3 INT) is coming off a career-best game (40-of-49, 522 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT) and his receivers were no slouches either. WR Antonio Brown (60 rec, 852 yards, 7 TD) had 10 catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns in the game. He has been the most consistent receiver in football with at least 84 yards in all eight games this season, and should have no trouble getting himself free against the Ravens. He had seven catches for 90 yards, plus a 10-yard carry, when he faced Baltimore in Week 2. RB Le’Veon Bell (691 rush yards, 1 TD) was severely under utilized in that game. Pittsburgh fell behind early, so Bell only got 11 carries for 59 yards. He also caught five passes for 48 yards. The Steelers will likely feature him early in an effort to win the battle for time of possession.

WR Martavis Bryant (7 rec, 123 yards, 3 TD) has been unleashed in the Pittsburgh offense. The rookie played his first two games of the year over the past two weeks and responded with three touchdown catches. He’s a big target and has shown good hands and footwork, so Roethlisberger will look to target him when he’s faced with smaller Ravens’ corners. Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid this season, allowing just 107.8 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL) and 250.1 passing yards per game (19th in NFL). They’ve struggled against the pass at times, but they did limit Joe Flacco to just 166 yards the last time they met. He did, however, throw for two touchdowns and no picks.
 
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Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 9 line moves
By ANDREW AVERY

The NFL schedule hits Week 9 and lines have been on the board long enough for bettors - both sharp and public - to have their say.

We talk with John Lester about the biggest adjustments on the Week 9 board and where those odds will end up come kickoff.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

The Dallas Cowboys suffered the inevitable letdown on Monday Night Football one week ago. They were media darlings on the heels of a six-game, straight-up winning streak but were dumped 20-17 in overtime by the Washington Redskins. Now they host the hottest team in the NFC. The Cardinals have won three-straight SU and ATS and could be a prime candidate for Sharp bettors.

"We probably opened this a bit high even assuming Romo will play," Lester tells Covers. "Dallas is the ultimate public team but there are plenty of sharps that think the Cardinals can win this outright."

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -9.5, Move: -10, Move: -9

What can you say about the Jets that hasn't already been said? They've dropped seven-straight games since winning their Week 1 opener (looking terrible in doing so, obviously) and at 1-6-1 ATS, are the worst bet in the league.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been a strong play for bettors this season and sit at 5-2 ATS heading into this Week 9 matchup.

"This got as high as -10 but there are still plenty of good gamblers that believe the Jets - with Rex Ryan - should never be double-digit dogs," Lester says.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings - Open: -1, Move: Pick

Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III makes his return under center despite a very solid performance (and win) by Colt McCoy one week ago. Due to RGIII's return to the lineup, the 'Skins could be a favorite of the betting public this week.

"Obviously you've got a lot of the mainstream thinking Robert Griffin III is going to come in and save the 'Skins," Lester said. "I expect this will go off at a Pick."

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - Open: +3, Move: +3.5, Move: +3

This is easily the marquee game on the Week 9 board, but it's one without a whole lot of line movement up until time of publication. Tom Brady has the all-time edge at the betting window when he and Peyton Manning meet up. Brady has posted a career SU record of 10-5 and ATS record of 7-6-2 in their 15 regular season meetings.

"We haven't seen a lot of movement here," confirms Lester. "The spread ticked up to 3.5 for about 24 hours and then got bet back down to the opener. We're seeing good two-way action and I still contend that the Pats are the right side."

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: +2

This week's Sunday Night Football matchup features a pair of AFC North rivals as the Steelers host the Ravens. Books opened this one anywhere from a Pick to Steelers -1.5 with the Ravens now favored.

"This spread has seen the full swing from one side to the other," Lester points out. "The early money came in on Pittsburgh and then gradually we've made the Ravens road chalk. I think this closes near a Pick."
 
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Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady: Who's the better bet?

Some things never change. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are going head-to-head for the 16th time in their careers and it is once again for AFC supremacy. Manning has led the Denver Broncos to a sterling 6-1 record with little opposition, while Brady struggled early but has put the Patriots on his back and now sit at 6-2.

Here's a breakdown of the all-time matchup in a special Tale of the Tape:

Straight-up: Brady 10, Manning 5

Brady has dominated the head-to-head record between the future Hall-of-Fame QBs, winning the first six encounters - including the 2003 AFC Championship Game - and going 7-2 at Foxboro Stadium. Manning does have the most significant victory of the series, leading Indianapolis back from an 18-point deficit to prevail 38-34 in the 2006 AFC title game. It's the biggest comeback in conference championship history. The Broncos defense held off a late charge by Brady and the Pats during last years AFC Championship game to send Manning to another Super Bowl.

ATS: Brady (7-6-2)

This matchup is much closer than the SU history, in part due to a series of closely contested games. Brady kicked off the tete-a-tete with a 5-0-1 ATS record - highlighted by a 44-13 rout of Manning's Indianapolis Colts in Brady's first career start - but Manning covered in each of the next four matchups. The teams split their two games last season with the Patriots covering the Week 12 matchup and the Broncos in the AFC Championship.

O/U: 9-6-0

With two of the best quarterbacks of a generation facing off, points are often scored in bunches - and the Brady-Manning encounters are no exception. The first meeting saw 57 points scored, kicking off a trend that saw the teams combine for greater than 50 points in five of the first seven showdowns. The high-water mark of 72 points was set in New England's 38-34 win in Week 13 of the 2003 season and equaled in the Colts' 38-34 win in the 2006 AFC title game. Last seasons two clashes saw the Pats and Broncos score 65 and 42 respectively.

Passing yards: Manning 4,371, Brady, 3,680

Manning has edged out Brady when it comes to passing yardage, averaging a whopping 291.4 yards per game compared to Brady's mark of 245.3. Manning has a number of big yardage games against the Patriots on his career resume, including a 349-yard performance in the 2006 conference championship and a 400-yard effort in a 26-16 triumph over the Patriots in the playoffs last year. Brady was hurt by a 168-yard showing in their first-ever encounter in 2001.

Touchdowns/interceptions: Manning: 31/20; Brady: 27/12

Known more as a gunslinger than his Patriots counterpart, it should surprise no one that Manning has more touchdowns and interceptions in the all-time series. Manning handed Brady his first victory as a starting quarterback, throwing three interceptions - two of which were run back for scores. He also has a place in history as the first quarterback to throw for four touchdowns against the Bill Belichick-led Patriots in 2003 - albeit in defeat.
 
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 48.5)

Cardinals’ turnover differential vs. Cowboys’ coughing the ball up

Take care of the ball and take away the ball. If you can do those two things, you have a chance to win every game. Arizona does just that. The Cardinals offense has only turned the ball over five times this season, including one interception, while its breakneck defense has forced 14 takeaways (10 interceptions) – second most in the NFL.

Arizona steps into AT&T Stadium looking to cause a little chaos in Jerry’s World against a Dallas team known for its terrible turnovers. The Cowboys have 13 turnovers on the year, which is baffling when you consider their 6-2 record. Five of those turnovers have come from the unsure hands of RB DeMarco Murray, with a few of those bumbles inside the red zone. That’s just taking points off the board.

On top of that, Cowboys QB Tony Romo could take the field with a serious contusion (very bad bruise) to his already brittle back. Romo was mowed over by the Redskins’ zero-pressure blitz Monday night and faces a similar pass rush Sunday. A damaged Romo could panic at the sound of footsteps – something he doesn’t normally do – and force passes into a ball-hawking Cardinals secondary.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 41.5)

Jets' QB Mike Vick vs. Arrowhead Stadium

New York is willing to try anything after suffering through a seven-game losing streak with second-year QB Geno Smith at the wheel. To steal a quote from Michael Caine in The Dark Knight, “You squeezed them, you hammered them to the point of desperation. And in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.”

Enter Mike Vick, who gets the nod under center for the Jets in Week 9, going up against his former coach in Philadelphia, Andy Reid, when the Jets crash land in Kansas City. New York’s offense was having a hard enough time gaining ground with Smith at the helm, but now Vick is thrown in with the first teamers, working with a shallow pool of receivers in which his top target – Percy Harvin – hasn’t even unpacked his bags since being dealt from Seattle.

More importantly, Vick’s chemistry – or lack thereof – with his offensive line will be exposed when the Arrowhead faithful rain down crowd noise on one of the most hated men in sports (Yeah, people haven’t forgotten about that dog fighting shit). The Jets racked up 12 false starts in the first eight games – fourth most in the NFL – and you can only imagine that number will go up Sunday.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 55)

Broncos’ tight end troubles vs. Patriots’ TE Rob Gronkowski

You can’t blame the media for hyping up the next chapter in the “Manning vs. Brady” saga this Sunday. It’s probably the most anticipated matchup behind Mayweather vs. Pacquiao (which we may never see), and Batman vs. Superman (coming to theaters in March 2016). But, when the smoke settles in Gillette Stadium and all the “Omahas” and high-pitched audibles are silent, someone other than a quarterback will be the talk of the league.

This game is setting up for a massive return to glory for New England tight end Rob Gronkowski. “The Gronk” is getting healthier by the snap and is picking up steam in recent weeks. He’s reeled in 411 yards on 27 catches the last four games – more than 15 yards per reception – and has scored seven touchdowns on the season, including three versus Chicago last week when he slapped around the Bears secondary for massive yards after the catch.

Denver’s defense is ramping up the pass rush, which means Brady will be looking to get rid of the ball as soon as possible – targeting No. 87 on most of those dumps. The Broncos have been burned badly by opposing TEs this season. They allowed the Colts’ Dwayne Allen to put up 64 yards on five catches with a TD, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce to go for 84 yards on four receptions, the Jets’ Jace Amaro to post 68 yards on 10 grabs with a score, and just last week Chargers TE Antonio Gates caught five balls for 54 yards and two touchdowns. Be prepared for a surplus of thunderous “Gronk Spikes” in Week 9.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick, 48)

Ravens’ home runs vs. Steelers’ big play problems

If the Steelers were a boxer (fictional or real), they’d be Rocky Balboa. Just like the “Italian Stallion”, Pittsburgh dishes out heavyweight haymakers while absorbing some huge hits as well. It boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL (if last week’s Big 12-like 51-34 final versus Indy wasn’t any indication), totaling 24 passing plays of 25 or more yards (most in the league) and 24 rushing playing of 25 or more.

However, while the Steelers can dish out the home runs, they also give them up. Pittsburgh has allowed 19 passing plays of 25 or more yards and watched opponents break off 32 runs of 25-plus – second most in the NFL. Last week against the Colts, the Black and Yellow gave up scores of 21, 28, and 31 yards. To use more baseball rhetoric, the Ravens are digging into the box and sitting on a tater from the Steelers in Week 9.

Baltimore ranks third in plays of 25 or more yards – 47 behind Pittsburgh’s 48 – with 32 on those coming on the ground. It also has some playmakers through the air in WRs Steve Smith (ninth in yards after the catch with 278) and Torrey Smith (404 yards after the catch last season). On the other side of the ball, Baltimore owns a plus-11 “Big Play Differential” giving up 36 plays of 25-plus yards this season.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI...Chargers haven't won SU at Miami since 41-38 OT epic 1981 playoff thriller. Bolts now no covers last three in 2014 after 10-1 spread run prior. Dolphins "over" first three at home TY. Dolphins and slight to "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Jags just 2-7-1 vs. spread last ten away. But Cincy 1-3 vs. line last four TY and Marvin Lewis 8-16-1 as home chalk since 2009. Slight to Jags, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND...Browns have covered first four as host this season. Bucs 2-1 as road dog, also "over" 3-0 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA...Even after Dallas upset, Redskins 1-4 vs. line last five this season and 5-11 last 16 vs. number since mid 2013. Skins also "over" 6-2 last eight away. "Over" and Vikings, based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON...Birds just 1-4 vs. line last five as visitor. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.

NY JETS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered their last six in 2014, Jets 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Jets also "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS...Cards now on 11-3-1 spread run. Big Red also 6-1 vs. line last seven away. Arians 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cards, based on Arians trends.

ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...Harbaugh has now won and covered three straight vs. Fisher, all by DD margins. Rams 6-11-1 as dog since LY. 49ers, based on series and team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND...Home team has won and covered all three meetings since Manning arrived in Denver (NE 2-1). Broncos now "over" four straight, while Pats "over" last five in 2014 and "over" 50-21 reg season since 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll no covers last three TY but still 27-15-2 vs. line since 2012. Seahawks, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH...Ravens romp 26-6 in Week Two. Previous five series meetings in Pitt decided by 3 or fewer. Steel "over" 7-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

INDIANAPOLIS at NY GIANTS ...Eli now no SU wins or covers last 2 after 3-0 SU and spread run. Colts 3-1 vs. line away TY and "over" 7-2-1 last 10. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.
 
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NFL Week 9

Chargers (5-3) @ Dolphins (4-3)—San Diego is 0-7 in south Florida since dramatic OT playoff win at Orange Bowl in 1981; they’ve lost eight of last ten with Miami, falling 20-16 (-1.5) here LY when last-minute drive in red zone came up short. Chargers lost last two games after 5-1 start, but had extra time to prep for this after Thursday loss in Denver; Bolts are 5-0 when they score 22+ points, 0-3 when they score less. Dolphins held three of last four foes to 14 or less. AFC West teams are 13-7 vs spread outside division, 6-2 as road dogs; AFC East teams are 8-10, 1-6 as home favorites. Chargers are 7-9-1 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points (2-0 this year); Miami is 9-7-1, but 2-4 if favored. All three Dolphin home games this season went over total.

Jaguars (1-7) @ Bengals (4-2-1)—Jax ran ball for 185/176 yards in last two games, after averaging 69.5 yards on ground in first six games; Jags are 1-3 as road underdogs this year, 21-27 since ’08; only one of their four road losses this year was by less than 17 points (16-14 @ Titans). Bengals won last three series games by 2-10-17 points, in series where home side lost four of last six games. Jax is 4-5 in its history in Cincinnati, with no losses by more than seven points. Cincy is 8-1 vs spread in last ten as home favorites, 2-1 this year, with wins by 14-26-3 points, and tie vs Panthers. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under the total; three of last four Cincy games went over.

Buccaneers (1-6) @ Browns (4-3)—Tampa Bay has been outscored 126-27 in first half of games this year, trailing all seven at half; they were held scoreless in first half four times already. That said, Bucs are 2-1 as road dogs, losing in OT in Superdome, winning at Pittsburgh; since ’09, they’re 22-17-1 as road dogs. Cleveland won three of last four games, winning 31-10/23-13 in last two at home; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Bucs won last three series games after losing first five; they’ve lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’06. Last three Cleveland games stayed under total; four of last five Buc games went over. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5-1 vs spread; AFC North home faves are 5-1-1.

Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (3-5)—Washington is off emotional OT win at rival Dallas late Monday night; they won last two games by total of five points, could be starting 3rd different QB in three weeks if RGIII comes back for this. Redskins are 2-2 as road dogs this year, losing away games by 11-3-10 points, before the Dallas win. Vikings snapped 3-game skid with OT win Sunday in Tampa; average total in their last three games is 28.3, with Vikes scoring two TD’s on last 36 drives- they won Sunday on a defensive TD. Minnesota won three of last four series games, with average total of 61.3 in last three. NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Last three Viking games and three of last four Redskin games stayed under. Looks like RGIII will get start at QB, his first appearance since Week 2.

Eagles (5-2) @ Texans (4-4)—Philly lost two of three road games, all of which were decided by 5 or less points with average total of 46; they’ve allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. Houston ran ball for 164 ypg in last four games, after only 89.8 in first four- they outscored last three opponents 41-25 in second half. If Texans run ball well, it keeps Foles off field, giving Texan defense time to rest. Iggles won all three series games, by 18-14-10 points; they won 24-10 in only visit here. Houston is 4-2 this season in games with spread of 3 or less; Eagles are 8-3 under Kelly in such games, 2-1 this year. AFC South teams are 10-12 vs spread outside their division. Last three Texan games went over total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.

Jets (1-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)—Jets lost last seven games, benched QB Smith for 34-year old Vick last week; they’re -15 in turnovers for year, with only three takeaways (one in last five games). Chiefs covered last six games, are 2-1 as home favorites, winning 41-14/34-7 in last two home games; they ran ball for 154/143 yards in two post-bye games, outscoring foes 37-6 in second half. Jets are 2-1 as road underdogs this year, losing by 7-31-2 points, are 13-15-1 overall as road dogs under Ryan. won last three series games by 3-4-37 points; this is their first visit to Arrowhead since ’05. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional dogs are 5-3. Last three Jet games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under.

Cardinals (6-1) @ Cowboys (6-2)—Health of Romo’s back key variable here; backup Weeden looked capable in Monday night cameo, but guessing Romo plays. Arizona won/covered last three games, hitting 75-yard bomb in last 2:00 to beat Philly last week; favorites covered all three of their road games (lost 41-20 (+7.5) at Denver)- Redbirds beat Giants/Raiders on road. Third straight home game for Dallas, which heads to London next week; they’re 7-22 as home favorites under Garrett, 1-2 this year- two of their last three home games went OT. Cowboys were held to 17 points in both losses; Denver is only team to score more than 20 against Cardinals this season, Eagles are only team to run ball for more than 92 yards. Five of seven Arizona games stayed under total.

Rams (2-5) @ 49ers (5-3)—Niners trailed 14-3 at St Louis three weeks ago, hit 80-yard TD pass just before half and won going away 31-17; they’re 11-2-1 in last 14 series games. Rams are 0-5-1 in last six visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points. St Louis lost best WR Quick and LT Long to season-ending injuries last week; they’re 2-1 as road dogs this season, 11-8 under Fisher. Niners are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five post-bye games, 0-1-1 SU in last two; they’re 0-2-1 as home favorites this year, after being 15-6-1 in Harbaugh’s first three season. Would expect SF to try and pound ball here, after running for 89-62 yards in two pre-bye games. Four of last five Ram fans went over total; five of seven 49er games stayed under.

Broncos (6-1) @ Patriots (6-2)—Denver won/covered all four games since its bye, scoring 37.3 ppg, but only road tilt of the four was against hapless Jets. This is only third road game of year for Broncos, who are 11-5 as road favorites under Fox- they had extra time to prep since last game was on a Thursday. Patriots won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they covered 13 of last 17 when getting points, are 25-18 vs spread in last 43 home games- since ’06, this is their second game as a home dog (beat Denver 34-31 in OT (+2) LY. Home side won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four 53.5; Broncos lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points- they blew big lead in other game. Last four Denver games, last five Patriot games went over.

Raiders (0-7) @ Seahawks (4-3)—Seattle is 14-6 as home favorite under Carroll, 2-1 this year, but they lost last home game to Dallas, are 0-3 vs spread in last three games overall- they ran ball for only 56-71 yards in last two games, have only one takeaway in last three. Winless Raiders are 1-2-1 vs spread away from home, losing true road games by 5-7-10 points; five of their seven losses are by 11 or less points. Oakland covered twice in last six games as double digit dog; all three of its true road games stayed under total. Home side won 10 games in what used to be divisional rivalry; Raiders lost last four visits here, with three of four by 7 or less points. Over last 10+ yeas, Seattle is 8-5-1 as double digit favorite, 4-4 under Carroll.

Ravens (5-3) @ Steelers (5-3)—Ravens are 0-2 vs Cincinnati, 5-1 vs everyone else; they’re 3-0 when allowing less than 20 points, but Steelers scored 30-51 in last two games, with Big Ben having career day vs Colts last week, throwing for 522 yards. Baltimore (-2.5) whacked Pitt 26-6 in Week 2 Thursday game, running ball for 157 yards- they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with five of last six decided by 3 or less points; Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits here, with five of last six decided by 3 or less. Third straight home game for Steelers- they scored nine TDs on last 22 drives, are 9-6 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less. Ravens are 10-12-1 in last 23 such games, 3-2 this season. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.


Colts (5-3) @ Giants (3-4)—Giants went 2L/3W/2L so far this year, losing 27-0/31-21 in last two games vs division rivals; they’ve scored 30+ points in all three wins, are 0-4 when scoring less than 30, with all four losses by 10+ points. Big Blue won last five post-bye games, with three of last four of those wins by 14+ points; Giants are 8-10 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Colts are 10-7-1 in such games under Pagano, 2-2 this year. Colts gave up 51 points, 522 passing yards to Steelers last week; 51-34 loss snapped their 5-game win streak. Indy split its four road games, losing at Denver/Pitt; they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-divisional road games. Giants covered three of last nine vs AFC teams. Over is 5-2 in last seven Indy games, 3-1-1 in last five Giant games.
 
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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks November 2, 04:25 EST
One of these weeks the Oakland Raiders (0-7, 3-4 ATS) are going to win one but not likely at this venue. Given the fact Raiders are mired in a 2-17 SU road skid (10-9 ATS) and Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 26-9 SU record with a profitable 25-10 mark against the betting line including 14-6 ATS as a home favorite, sportsbooks opened the defending Champions 15.0-point favorites. No likely upset, but Raiders who usually give the best a run for the money having cashed 4-of-5 as double digit road underdogs could keep it within the betting number as Seahawks have a vig losing 4-4 ATS mark at home laying double digits.

St. Louis at San Francisco November 2, 04:05 EST
San Francisco 49ers losing ground to NFC West-leading Cardinals after being taken behind the woodshed prior to their bye spanked 42-17 by Broncos will be on a mission Sunday when they get back to work. Oddsmakers aren't giving the 2-5 SU/ATS Rams much of a chance this weekend as they've opened 10-point underdogs. Tempting, but you do bet Rams at great risk. Harbaugh's troops have a 3-0 SU/ATS stretch vs St Louis all by double digits and the squad has a penchant for rewarding backers after a loss by 14 or more points (11-5 ATS). Add in the fact Rams enter 6-12 ATS as dogs since last year, 3-7 ATS last ten on the road taking double digits the Niners' are a good choice.
 
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NFL

SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
MIAMI is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at CINCINNATI (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TAMPA BAY (1 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WASHINGTON (3 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 5) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 4) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NY JETS (1 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ARIZONA (6 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ST LOUIS (2 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 100-138 ATS (-51.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-139 ATS (-45.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (6 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-48 ATS (+29.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 162-125 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2014, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 
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NFL

Trends

WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

ARIZONA vs. DALLAS
Arizona is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

NY JETS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games

PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
Philadelphia is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home

JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cincinnati12-1-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing St. Louis

DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
New England is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland

BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games

INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY GIANTS
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 10 games
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
 
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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Nov. 2

San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 13-27 ATS off a road loss against a division rival
Miami: 37-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS after playing a game at home

Washington at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 2-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 24-11 ATS off a home loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 25-47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Dallas: 16-11 OVER after the first month of the season

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games
New England: 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Oakland at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-20 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in home lined games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 39-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Pittsburgh: 44-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored



NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 3

Indianapolis at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 24-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
New York: 72-37 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
 

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