Sunday 11/16/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Patriots at Colts

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Indianapolis -3, Total: 57.5

The Patriots look to win their sixth straight game when they visit the Colts on Sunday night.

Both teams should be well-rested after having their byes last week that followed five straight wins (4-1 ATS) for New England, and six wins in the past seven contests (6-1 ATS) for Indianapolis. The Patriots have won four straight meetings with the Colts SU, covering in two of those four. All of those games were, however, played in Foxboro. New England has dropped its past two games SU in Indianapolis, but did cover the spread in both, making the club 12-3 ATS on the road in this series since 1992.

This matchup will be tough for Colts QB Andrew Luck, as he’s facing a New England team that is allowing just 235.1 passing yards per game. He is 0-2 (SU and ATS) against the Patriots in his career, throwing for 332.5 yards per game, but only four touchdowns with seven interceptions. New England QB Tom Brady is 11-4 SU in 15 career starts versus Indy with 3,604 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 27 TD and 12 INT. Over the past three seasons, the Colts are 13-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. They are also 6-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium after scoring 30+ points in their previous game in that span. However, the Pats are 44-22 ATS (67%) when playing as an underdog since Bill Belichick was hired as the head coach.

New England is one of the hottest teams in football and that all begins with the magnificent play of QB Tom Brady (2,392 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT). During the team's five straight wins, Brady has completed 68% of his passes for 1,601 yards (320.2 per game), 8.1 YPA, 18 TD and only 1 INT. He should keep that going against a Colts defense that is prone to giving up big passing games. TE Rob Gronkowski (49 rec, 663 yards, 8 TD) has been on a tear recently, surpassing 100 receiving yards in each of the past two games with four total touchdowns in those contests. Gronkowski should be able to get himself open across the middle against this Indianapolis defense, and Brady will surely find him if he does.

This defense will ultimately decide whether or not the Patriots have a chance to steal a big victory on the road. New England has done well against Andrew Luck in the past, but he is a different quarterback than the guy they faced last year. Darrelle Revis (2 INT) will need to lock down T.Y. Hilton in order for Luck to have an off-game.

The Colts have won six of their past seven games and that has plenty to do with the play of their superstar QB Andrew Luck (3,085 pass yards, 26 TD, 9 INT). Luck is an MVP candidate at this point in the season and is coming off a game in which he threw for 354 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs against the Giants. Luck has thrown for 300+ yards in eight of the nine games his team has played this year and will look to keep that up against a rock-solid Patriots secondary. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (56 rec, 937 yards, 3 TD) has been his go-to-guy all season long and has now caught touchdowns in three of the past four games. He had racked up at least 100 receiving yards in three straight games before having just three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in the blowout win over the Giants.

The Colts’ defensive play is where they can really run into trouble. Indianapolis is allowing only 98.1 rushing yards per game (9th in NFL), but the Patriots are not a team that beats you on the ground. They’re going to throw the ball early and often against this Indy defense that is allowing 263.6 passing yards per game (27th in NFL). The Colts will need to be prepared to slow down the Patriots’ passing game and if they do that they could pick up their second straight win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football: Patriots at Colts

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 57.5)

Andrew Luck is on the fast track to greatness but he will get a close-up view of what it looks like when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. Luck leads the league in passing yards and has guided the AFC South-leading Colts to six wins in seven games, but he faces a hotter team in the Patriots, who have ripped off five consecutive victories to move to the top of the AFC East. Luck is 0-2 versus New England, including a playoff loss last season.

Luck described two-time Super Bowl MVP Brady as a "master of his craft," but the Patriots quarterback was equally effusive in his praise of the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2012. "Their offense is doing a great job this year," Brady said of Luck and the Colts. "They score a lot of points, especially at home, and he's kind of the ringleader." With each team coming off a bye, it figures to be an offensive slugfest with Indianapolis rolling up a league-best 32.2 points per game and New England ranked third at 31.2.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened at -2.5, but quickly moved to -3 where it has sat all week long. The total has done the same thing as the spread, opening at 57 then jumping to 57.5

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - OL Cameron Fleming (Ques-Finger) Colts - DT Arthur Jones (Out-Ankle), LB Erik Walden (Ques-Hip)

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-4.75) + Colts (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -3.75

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Great matchup here and we thought for sure we’d see great two way action on this game, but that hasn't been the case at all. Roughly 65% of the action is on the Patriots at +2.5, as well as on the ML at +120. Again, that comes as a surprise to us because the Colts have attracted serious support all season. Now, that support has jumped shipped and backed the road dog Patriots. What isn't a surprise is that 70% of the money is on the over. With over’s hitting at an alarming rate on these late Sunday night and Monday night games, we knew we’d see over money in this game. Currently we’re dealing 58 which is the highest total we've posted so far this NFL Season." - Peter Childs

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Revenge looms large for Andrew Luck and the Colts, who were bounced from the NFL playoffs last year by Tom Brady and the Patriots. Luck has been a solid moneymaker in his NFL career, going 28-15-1 ATS, including 15-5-1 ATS at home. But Brady has been equally outstanding as an underdog as evidenced with a 32-15-1 ATS mark throughout his NFL career. Feeling here is who ever has the ball last wins the game." - Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 O/U): New England has rebounded from a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City in Week 4 with a vengeance, rolling up an average of 40.2 points during its winning streak that was capped with a dominating 43-21 victory over Peyton Manning and Denver prior to the bye. Brady has 18 touchdowns versus one interception during that span and his favorite target has been tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has 36 catches, three 100-yard games and five of his eight scoring receptions during the winning streak. The Patriots are still trying to cobble together a running game following a season-ending knee injury to Stevan Ridley, but the addition of Brandon Browner opposite star cornerback Darrelle Revis helped them limit Chicago and Denver to seven first-half points in the past two games.

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Luck bounced back from a 51-34 defeat in Pittsburgh with a superb effort against the New York Giants, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns - his eighth 300-yard game of the season and seventh in a row. Luck has gone over 300 yards in both his career matchups against New England, but he's also been intercepted seven times - including four picks in a 43-22 postseason setback in January. T.Y. Hilton has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games and needs 63 yards to reach 1,000 for the second straight season while Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson have provided a 1-2 punch at running back with a combined 812 yards rushing and 55 catches. Indy's defense struggled in its last two, allowing nearly 900 yards through the air.

TRENDS:

*Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
*Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
*Over is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games overall.
*Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: As of Saturday evening, 58 percent of bettors were supporting the Pats.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints must return to winning ways at home
Andrew Avery

If the New Orleans Saints are to salvage any hopes of a division crown or postseason appearance, then resuming their home dominance is vital. The Saints were beaten by the San Francisco 49ers 27-24 in overtime at home in Week 10, suffering their first defeat in their last 12 home games.

Quarterback Drew Brees has been formidable on home turf, throwing for 4,102 yards and 37 touchdowns against just eight interceptions in the Big Easy over those 12 games. They have a record of 9-3 against the spread in those 12 home games.

New Orleans will look to register another in the "win" column Sunday as it welcomes the Cincinnati Bengals to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Sunday. They are currently 7-point home favorites for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors slightly on Seahawks, Under
Andrew Avery

One of Sunday's biggest games pits the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in football, riding a four-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread.

Despite Kansas City's recent run of success, bettors still have a little faith in the Champs.

"We’re pretty split on the side here, with 55 percent of the action on Seattle," says John Lester, Senior Lines Manager of BookMaker.eu. "Sharps have definitely influenced the swing on this spread. The public isn’t ready to let go of the defending champs so this could close around a PK."

The total is one of the lowest on the Week 11 board and Lester thinks that could come down even more before the game kicks off.

"We’ve taken more than 60 percent of our wagers on the under," he says. "It’s likely to fall to 41."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Snow fall in store as Browns host Texans
Andrew Avery

The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans Sunday afternoon and weather forecasts are predicting a chilly day with a chance of snowfall.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of snow. In addition, wind will blow toward the northeast endzone at around 10 mph.

Presently, the Browns are 3.5-point home favorites for the matchup and the total is 41 - the lowest on the board Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chiefs, Seahawks heading in different directions ATS
Stephen Campbell

The Seattle Seahawks and the Kansas City Chiefs come into their Week 11 matchup going two different ways for their spread bettors.

The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four contests, while the Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five.

K.C. is currently 1-point home faves with an O/U of 42 for the affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Falcons becoming a boon for Under bettors
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Under in past Atlanta Falcons games, you've been collecting some nice profits.

The Under is 5-0 in the Falcons' last five matchups. Matt Ryan's crew travel to Raleigh for a date with Cam Newton and division rival Carolina Sunday.

Oddsmakers presently have the Panthers as slight +1 home dogs. The total is sitting at 46.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frigid temps to welcome Seahawks to Arrowhead
Andrew Avery

The Seattle Seahawks will have more than the Kansas City Chiefs to deal with as the weather outlook features frigid temperatures for Sunday's showdown at Arrowhead Stadium.

As of Saturday evening, forecasts call for temperatures in the mid-20s during game time, and wind blowing toward the southeast endzone at roughly six mph.

The Chiefs are presently 1-point home faves and the total sits at 42.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL roundup: Peterson misses league hearing
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson did not appear at a scheduled disciplinary hearing with the NFL on Friday after agreeing to attend last week, according to ESPN.

The NFL claimed that Peterson refused to give the league an alternative date for the disciplinary hearing, which stems from his arrest for child abuse.

Friday's meeting was more significant than the conference call scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Monday. The NFL Players Association filed an expedited, non-injury grievance on behalf of Peterson, requesting removal from the commissioner's exempt list.

The Friday meeting was originally scheduled last Tuesday, but the NFLPA told the league on Thursday that it was not available, according to the report.

NFLPA spokesperson George Atallah said Peterson's attorney, Rusty Hardin, provided the league with a letter claiming that it is against Texas state law to give the NFL the requested documents. The incident that led to Peterson's arrest occurred in Texas.

Peterson has not played for the Vikings since Week 1 but is being paid his full salary -- $11.25 million for the 2014 season -- while away from the team. On Nov. 4 in Montgomery County, Texas, Peterson pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor assault charge, was placed on probation and ordered to pay a $4,000 fine. The charge was reduced from felony child abuse for an incident in which Peterson admittedly used a tree branch to whip his 4-year-old son.


---Houston Texans running back Arian Foster will not play Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

Foster was downgraded from questionable to out Saturday with a groin injury.

Foster was injured two weeks ago against the Philadelphia Eagles. He did not practice after the Texans' bye week.


---The San Francisco 49ers added linebacker Aldon Smith to the 53-man roster from the exempt list.

Smith was suspended in August for nine games for violating the NFL's policy on personal conduct and substance abuse.

To make room for Smith on the roster, the 49ers placed defensive back Jimmie Ward on injured reserve.



---The San Diego Chargers placed rookie cornerback Jason Verrett on season-ending injured reserve.

Verrett, a first-round draft pick, had 19 tackles and one interception in six games (four starts) this season. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury four about a month, and aggravated the injury three weeks ago.

The Chargers also activated outside linebacker Melvin Ingram from injured reserve/designated for return and signed rookie safety Adrian Phillips. In addition, the Chargers released linebacker Cordarro Law.


---The New York Giants placed running back Peyton Hillis on season-ending injured reserve with a concussion.

Hillis was injured last Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. It is the second consecutive season that Hillis has been sidelined with a concussion. He missed a game last December, also against the Seahawks.

The Giants promoted linebacker Justin Anderson from the practice squad to take the roster spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Books hope for low-scoring affair in Sunday nighter
Andrew Avery

The marquee game on the Week 11 board just so happens to be the Sunday night primetime game, which features the New England Patriots visiting the Indianapolis Colts.

At most shops, the Colts opened as 3-point home favorites and the total opened at 56. The spread has remained while the total has inched north with bettors loving a high-scoring game with two prolific quarterbacks slinging the ball on national television.

According to John Lester, Senior Lines Manager for BookMaker.eu, a significant amount of action on the Over has his book hoping for a boring game.

"The total has moved upward as everyone is aware of these primetime games going over so nearly 87 percent of our wagers are on the over," Lester tells Covers. "We’d love to see a plodding affair."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 16

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HOUSTON at CLEVELAND...Browns 6-3 vs. line TY but only 2-2 as chalk. Browns also "under" five in a row after Cincy win. Slight to "under," based on recent Browns "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO...Bears 1-5 SU and vs. line last six in 2014, also 0-3 SU and vs. line as host, 1-7-1 last nine vs. number at Solider Field. Vikes have covered last three meetings. Bears "over" 17-7-1 since Trestman arrived LY. Vikings and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY...Pack is "over" 8-1 this season and "over" 11-1 last 11 reg. season games. Pack 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY. "Over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

SEATTLE at KANSAS CITY...KC 8-0 vs. line last eight TY. Hawks 1-3 vs. spread away in 2014 and 1-4 last five vs. line. Chiefs have won and covered last three as host by DD margins. Chiefs "under" 4-1 last five at home. Chiefs and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at CAROLINA...Cam "under" 8-3 last 11 at home, but Carolina 1-6-1 SU last eight this season. Resurgent Atlanta has covered two straight. Slight to "under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

CINCINNATI at NEW ORLEANS...Saints 20-1 SU, 18-2-1 vs. line at Superdome with Sean Payton on sidelines since 2011. Cincy 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Saints "over" 7-2-1 last ten reg. season. Saints and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON...Bucs have covered three straight on road. Skins 1-5 vs. line last six TY, 1-4 last five as favorite. Bucs "over" 4-1 last five away. Bucs and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

DENVER at ST. LOUIS...Broncos "over" last six and 27-14 reg season since 2012, 51-26-1 dating to late 2009. Also 27-14 vs. spread in reg season since Manning arrived in 2012. Broncos 11-5 as road chalk since 2012. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at NY GIANTS...Eli only 5-9 as dog since LY, and first five G-Men losses in 2014 by DD margins. Streaky NYG also no covers last three TY. Harbaugh 3-5 vs. line in his worst season yet for SF. Slight to 49ers, based on recent trends.

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO...Bolts no SU wins last three or covers last four TY. That was preceded by 10-1 spread run stretching to late 2013. No team has swept spread decisions in season series between these two since 2010, and Oak covered first game on Oct. 12. Raiders 2-2 vs. line for Sparano. Slight to Raiders, based on recent trends.

DETROIT at ARIZONA...Cards have covered last 4 and 6 of 8 this season, now 13-3-1 last 17 on board for Arians. Lions only 2-2 vs. line away from home TY, 8-16-1 vs. spread last 25 on road. Lions "under" 9-1-1 last 11 since late 2013, Big Red "under" 5-2-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS...Belichick "over" last six TY, now "over" 51-21-1 in reg season since 2010. Last three "over" vs. Indy since 2011. Colts "over" 7-2-1 since late 2013. Belichick crushed Indy past two seasons (2013 playoff game). If Belichick a dog note 2-0 mark TY in role and 15-4-1 as reg seas dog since 2006. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


Monday, Nov. 17

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE ...Titans on 1-7 spread run last eight TY and 0-4 vs. line at home, Titans 0-9-1 vs. spread last 10 at Nashville. Steel "over" 9-5 last 14 since late 2013. Steel and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Texans (4-5) @ Browns (6-3)-- Mallett gets first start for Houston after they went 1-4 in last five pre-bye games, losing last game 31-21 to Eagles despite a +3 turnover ratio. Red-hot Browns had three extra days to prep after beating Bengals for third win in row, allowing 11 ppg; they're 4-1 at home, 2-1 as HF, with home wins by 2-21-10-5 points. Texans are 2-3 on road, 1-1 as road dogs, with road losses by 13-3-7; road wins were at Raiders/Titans. Houston won four of last five series games, but lost two of last three in Cleveland- last time they were here was '08. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-2-1; AFC South underdogs are 5-9. Last five Cleveland games stayed under total; last four Houston games went over.

Vikings (4-5) @ Bears (3-6)-- Chicago is first team since 1923 to allow 50+ points in consecutive games; they've lost five of last six games, losing all three home games by 3-21-13 points. Bears allowed 11 TDs on opponents' last 21 drives. Minnesota lost last six visits to Windy City, with three of last four by 14+. Vikings' last three games were decided by total of 10 points; they're 3-2 as road dogs, losing by 23-32-1, but one of wins was with Peterson at RB. Since 2007, Bears are 13-24-3 as home faves- they have only one takeaway (-7) in their last three games. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Five of last seven Chicago games went over; three of last four Viking games stayed under.

Eagles (7-2) @ Packers (6-3)-- Green Bay won five of last six games; they're 3-1 as HF this year, winning at Lambeau by 7-32-21-41 points, scoring 16 TDs on last 35 drives at home. Pack won three of last four series games, with all three wins by seven or less points. Eagles have short week after easy win Monday; they've won four of last five games, are 2-2 on road (1-1-1 as AU) with three of four games decided by five or less points- this is their third road game in last four weeks. Philly scored two TDs on 24 drives in its two losses, 21 on 83 drives in wins. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-10-1 vs spread. Eight of nine Packer games, five of last eight Eagle games went over total. Packers are 26-15 in last 41 games as home favorite. Check the weather.

Seahawks (6-3) @ Chiefs (6-3)-- KC won six of last seven games after 0-2 start; they're 2-1 as home favorite, winning last three at Arrowhead by 27-27-14 points. Chiefs won five of last seven series games; Seattle lost last three visits here, losing by 7-12-7. KC ran ball for 134.3 ypg in four games since bye; Seattle NT Mebane tore hamstring, is out for year, which hurts Seattle run defense. Seahawks are 2-2 on road; they allowed 28+ points in all three losses, are 6-0 allowing less than 28- opponents were 24-53 on 3rd down (45.2%) in losses, 16-49 (32.7%) in last four wins. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 vs spread. Four of last five Seattle games went over; last five Chief games stayed under.

Falcons (3-6) @ Panthers (3-6-1)-- 24 of 32 NFL teams have a #1 draft pick playing at OT; none of Carolina's tackles were even drafted, which helps explain why Newton is getting pounded every week. Panthers are 1-6-1 in last eight games after 2-0 start; they scored one TD on last 18 drives at home, losing 13-9/28-10 in last two home games, and are limping into late bye next week. Falcons are 3-0 in division games, scoring 40 ppg with wins by 3-42-10. Carolina won last three series games, by 10-1-24; Falcons lost 30-20/34-10 in last two visits here. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last four Atlanta games stayed under.

Bengals (5-3-1) @ Saints (4-5)-- Cincy had three extra prep days after dismal 24-3 loss to Cleveland last week; Bengals lost last two road games 43-17/27-0- they play five of last seven games on road. Since '09, road teams that played previous three games on the road are 31-22 vs spread. Under-.500 Saints are actually in first place; they are 3-1 at home, winning by 11-6-21 points, but are 2-4 in non-division games, and turned ball 14 times in last six games (-5). Cincy is 17-7-2 vs spread in last 26 games vs NFC teams. Twice in last four games, Bengals didn't score offensive TD. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; NFC South favorites are 4-7. Six of nine Saint games, four of last six Bengal games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-8) @ Washington (3-6)-- Tampa was shut out in first half in four of nine games this year, outscored 148-47 in all first halves; Bucs covered all three Sunday road games, winning SU at Pitt, losing in OT in Superdome, by 5 at Cleveland (they lost at Atlanta 56-14 on a Thursday). Since '06, Skins are 10-21 as home favorites. Washington is 2-2 at home, beating Jaguars/Titans; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. Bucs are 3-2 in last five series games, with four of those decided by 3 or less points. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 this year; NFC South road dogs are 4-6. Last three Tampa games stayed under total. Washington has one win by more than 3 points, 41-10 over Jacksonville in Week 2.

Broncos (7-2) @ Rams (3-6)-- Rams gave up two defensive TDs when they trailed at Arizona 17-14 late in game, so Davis is benched for 34-year old backup Hill, who will protect ball better. Rams allowed 8 TDs on defense/specials this year; you can't win that way. St Louis has 16 sacks in last four games, after having one in first five. Denver brought Incognito in for interview last week, so they have OL issues, but their last five wins are all by 14+ points. Broncos are 1-2 on carpet, but losses were to Seahawks, Patriots. Last six Denver games and five of last seven St Louis tilts went over the total. Fisher's Titans were 6-13 vs Manning when both were in AFC South. Since 2010, NFL home teams that played previous three games on road are 5-13-1 vs spread, 3-9-1 if they're the underdog.

49ers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)-- 49ers hit 4th-and-10 play in last 2:00 last week to get into FG range and force OT, where they forced TO, kicked FG and avoided 4-5 start; in five wins, they're +10 in turnovers, -4 in four losses. Giants lost last four games, allowing an average of 34.5 ppg; Seattle ran ball for 350 yards against them last week, in game Big Blue led most of way. Niners lose LB Willis (toe) for year, get Smith (suspension) back here; they're 3-2 on road, losing at Denver/Arizona, with wins by 11-14-3 points. 49ers are 2-4-1 as favorites, Giants are 2-6 as underdogs. Team that won field position is 9-0 in Giant games this year. 49ers are 3-0 on artificial turf, scoring 28.7 ppg. Over is 3-1 in last four Niner games, 3-0 in last three Giant games.

Raiders (0-9) @ Chargers (5-4)-- San Diego limped into its bye with banged-up OL and three consecutive losses, losing last game 37-0 at Miami; their last win was at Oakland 31-28 (-7) in Week 7, when Raiders had 10-yard edge in field position but lost-- teams with 10+-yard edge are 50-1 in NFL this year. Oakland lost 18 of last 23 games to the Chargers, lost last two visits to San Diego 24-21/26-13; they're 2-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 5-7-10-6 points. Three of their last four losses are by 10 points or more. Chargers are 2-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 9-19-31 points; they have zero takeaways (-7) in last three games, and were outrushed 425-180. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-14 vs spread.

Lions (7-2) @ Cardinals (8-1)-- Palmer is out for year but Stanton started in wins over Giants/49ers in Weeks 2-3; he is more than capable. Arizona won/covered its last five games, scoring two defensive TDs in 1:30 to break game open last week. Cardinals are 2-1 as home favorites, winning all five home games by 1-9-10-4-17 points. Lions won last four games, pulling out last three in last minute; they lost only game they played on grass this year, 24-7 at Carolina in Week 2. Arizona won its last five games vs Detroit, with four of five wins in desert, where Lions lost last seven visits, with five of losses by 7 or less points. Arizona is +8 in turnovers in its last three home games. Last eight Detroit games, three of last four Arizona games stayed under total.

Patriots (7-2) @ Colts (6-3)-- Colts won/covered six of last seven games, Patriots won last five games (4-1 vs spread); this is their first road game in five weeks. NE is 7-0 on turf, 0-2 on grass; they won last four series games, beating Colts 44-23 LY in playoffs. Home side won last six series games; Pats lost last two in Indy 18-15/35-34. NE's last five visits here were all decided by 4 or less points, but last visit here was in '09. Colts won last three home games by 24-7-27 points; this is sixth game in row they're favored by less than four points. Healthy Gronkowski made NE offense a beast; NE turned ball over once in last five games, though they lost two of last three post-bye games. Last six Patriot games, six of last eight Indy games went over total.

Steelers (6-4) @ Titans (2-7)-- Pitt laid egg in Swamp last week after Big Ben tossed 12 TD passes in last two home games; Steelers are 2-3 on road, beating Panthers/Jaguars- all three of their losses are on carpet- they're 6-1 on grass, but lost four of last five trips here, losing 26-23/16-9 to Tennessee last two years. Titans scored 17 or less points in last four games, losing last three by 2-14-14 points; they averaged 6.7/4.5 ypa in first two Mettenberger starts, but defense also had no takeaways in those games. Since '06, Steelers are 14-25-1 as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Coming into this week, over is 23-8 in NFL primetime games. Steelers have their bye week after this game; Titans had bye two weeks ago, one of few edges they have in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC Showdown'

Two high-powered offenses meet in a marquee Sunday Night Football matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium. All seems well with Tom Brady and company as they come off their bye with five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS) and lead the AFC at 7-2 (5-4 ATS). The Colts fresh off their bye week hit the field ridding a 6-1 SU/ATS tear which moved the mark to 6-3 (7-2 ATS) on the campaign. By benefit of being the home team, the Colts are a three-point favorite, which in the world of football betting essentially means that this is an even game. High voltage offenses, the total is posted at a whopping 57.5. The 'Over' has paid out for totals bettors in each of the last five meetings. From a side perspective, probably not a good idea to bet against Patriots in this spot. The 'Grouch In The Hoodie' is already 2-0 ATS this season taking points and since 2006 his troops are 15-4-1 ATS as regular season dogs including 11-4-1 ATS away from Gillette Stadium. Another bit of football handicapping research adds to the heavy weight in favor of New England. The Patriots have thrived in prime time Sunday Night regular season games away from home as they're on a sparkling 7-0 ATS streak including 2-0 ATS when visiting Indianapolis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears November 16, 01:00 EST

The Minnesota Vikings come out of the bye week ridding a two game win streak that has Boat-Men 4-5 SU on the year with a 5-4 record against the betting line. Vikings are one of seven teams without a division win this season as they're 0-2 SU/ATS and weren't competitive in losses to Packers (42-10) or Lions (17-3). However, plenty of opportunity to improve in that area as they head to the Windy City to take on struggling Bears who've lost three in-a-row and five of six (1-5 ATS). According to current odds DA-BEARS have been installed 3.5 point home favorite. Dangerous betting territory, the status as small chalk in front of the home folks has worked against Bears as they've cashed a single ticket last seven tries as home faves of 4.5 or less (1-5-1 ATS). Couple of other trends to ponder. Bears are 3-9 ATS as home fave vs team with losing record, 3-7 ATS as home favorite of a two TD loss and a bankroll killing 2-14-1 ATS last 17 at Soldier Field.


Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs November 16, 01:00 EST

Kansas City Chiefs have won four straight (4-0 ATS) behind a stingy defense allowing just 12.5 PPG and six of its last seven (6-1 ATS) games with the staunch 'D' giving up 14.4 per/contest. Seahawks getting its season back on track have won three straight (1-2 ATS) moving the record to 6-3 (4-6 ATS) but still don't look anything like the squad that went 9-1 (6-4 ATS) in the first ten weeks of their Championship campaign. Given the ho-hum betting numbers of the Seahawks last five going 1-4 ATS does give pause. However, with Seattle's ground game back in sync the past two grinding out 499 rushing yards, 7 majors taking Seahawks in what is a pick-em' game has merit. Keep in mind, since the arrival of Pete Carroll on the Seattle sidelines in 2010, Seahawks have flourish winning the ground game by 30 or more yards (29-10 ATS) a number well in reach against Chiefs' 20th ranked run stop unit giving up 115.6 rushing yards/game. Seahawks 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games, 7-3 ATS last ten away vs a team with a winning record adds fuel to the choice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Nov. 16

Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Houston: 18-5 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 27-9 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 3-13 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less
Chicago: 13-4 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Philadelphia at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better
Green Bay: 8-1 OVER in all games

Seattle at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 6-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
Kansas City: 30-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 46-28 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points
Carolina: 29-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

Cincinnati at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 22-10 UNDER in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
New Orleans: 6-17 ATS against AFC North division opponents

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents
Washington: 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Denver at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Denver: 26-12 ATS as a favorite
St Louis: 36-55 ATS off a road loss

San Francisco at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS as a road favorite
NY Giants: 0-6 ATS off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more

Oakland at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 48-71 ATS off a division game
San Diego: 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Detroit: 31-50 ATS off a home win
Arizona: 6-0 ATS against conference opponents

New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
New England: 15-5 OVER off a home win
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games


NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Nov. 17

Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 93-64 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS off a road game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 20
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 20
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 20
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 20
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 20
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 20

Team Betting Notes

-- The 'under' went 3-1 for the second consecutive week of CFL action, and went 11-5 in the final 16 games of the regular season.

-- Hamilton (9-9) kept grinding and rolled up a 29-15 win against Montreal. The TiCats won the East Division with the win, and will host the Eastern Final Nov. 23. They have covered three straight games for the first time since July 4-26.

-- Saskatchewan (10-8) picked up a 24-17 win against Edmonton (12-6), setting up a rematch next week in the West Semi-Final Sunday, Nov. 16. The Esks are 2-1 SU/ATS against the RoughRiders this season.

-- Montreal (9-9) lost at Hamilton, but they'll still host the BCLions (9-9) in the Eastern Semi-Final Sunday, Nov. 16. The two teams split this season, with each team winning and covering at home. Both meetings between Montreal and BC went under, too.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Semifinals
By David Schwab

The CFL closed things out with a bang in Week 20 of the regular season to set-up some very interesting matchups in this Sunday’s opening round of the 2014 Grey Cup Playoffs.

Last Friday, Toronto did its part by defeating Ottawa 23-5 as a 6 ½-point home favorite with the total staying UNDER the 45 ½-point line, but Hamilton’s 29-15 victory over Montreal the following day as a 3 ½-point home favorite not only knocked the Argonauts out of the playoffs, it sealed the East Division title and first round bye for the Tiger-Cats. The total in that game stayed UNDER the closing 44-point line.

In the first of two final regular season games in the West Division, Calgary hammered British Columbia 33-16 as a 1 ½-point road underdog with the total going OVER the 49-point line. This past Saturday, Saskatchewan secured the third seed in the West with a 24-17 victory against Edmonton as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 41-point closing line in that contest.

Sunday, Nov. 16

British Columbia (9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS) at Montreal (9-9 SU, 9-8-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Montreal -2 ½
Total: 45

Game Overview

The Lions enter the playoffs as a cross-over team from the West Division. They will have to dig deep for some momentum in this game after stumbling down the stretch to a 2-5 straight-up record in their last seven games. BC was only slight better against the spread at 3-4 and the total stayed UNDER in four of its last six games.

Kevin Glenn is expected to get the start for the Lions at quarterback, but Travis Lulay has been placed on the active roster for Sunday’s game. While Glenn has certainly been able to rack-up the passing yards this season with 3,918, which is the second-highest total in the league, he has also tossed a CFL-high 17 interceptions. This includes two in this past Friday’s loss to Calgary.

Montreal’s strong performance down the stretch ended on a bitter note in last week’s loss to Hamilton as it cost the team the East title as well as a crucial first round bye in the playoffs. None the less, the Alouettes finished the regular season with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and a highly profitable 5-1-1 mark ATS. The total stayed UNDER in six of their final seven games.

Much of Montreal’s second half success could be attributed to the play of Jonathan Crompton as the team’s starting quarterback, but you also have to give a ton of credit to a defense that did not allow more than 17 points a game in the team’s recent six-game winning streak.

Betting Trends

The Lions have covered ATS in 18 of their last 25 games against Montreal, but they have lost eight of their last nine road games in this matchup SU. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings in Montreal.

These two split the season series with the home team winning both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both games.

Saskatchewan (10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS) at Edmonton (12-6 SU, 12-6ATS)

Point-spread: Edmonton OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Saskatchewan snapped a five-game SU losing streak with last week’s victory over the Eskimos and it was the first time it covered ATS in its last eight games. It was just the second time the total stayed UNDER in its last five games. The Roughriders’ slide can be directly attributed to the loss of starting quarterback Darian Durant. With him under center, they had jumped-out to a 8-2 SU start this season.

In his place, Saskatchewan has turned to Tino Sunseri as well as Kerry Joseph to lead this offense, but no matter who has lined-up in Durant’s place, the results have been mediocre at best. Durant is actually listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, but the most encouraging thing about this past Saturday’s win was the 194 yards the Roughriders gained on the ground in that game.

The Eskimos have clearly been the second-best team in the CFL this season behind Calgary. They also started fast with a 7-1 SU record in their first eight games and they won the games they needed to down the stretch with a 5-3 SU record in their last eight contests. Bettors also prospered during this run with a 7-1 record ATS in their last eight games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games.

Injury concerns at the quarterback position continue to plague Edmonton and while Matt Nichols was able to go in last week’s game, Mike Reilly remains questionable for this Sunday with a lingering foot injury. Reilly threw for 3,327 yards and 16 touchdowns while completing 64.6 percent of his throws, while Nichols added another 1,014 yards and four scores behind a slightly lower completion percentage of 62.3.

Betting Trends

The Eskimos have won 18 of their last 23 home games SU against the Roughriders and they are 4-1 ATS at home in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Edmonton.

These two West Division rivals met three times this season with the Eskimos holding a 2-1 edge both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in all three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL 2014 Division Semi-Finals Preview
By Mike Pickett

The Grey Cup playoffs get underway on Sunday afternoon this week with the Montreal Alouettes hosting the B.C. Lions and the Edmonton Eskimos getting a visit from the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the two division semi-final matchups.

B.C. at Montreal

Last 10 Meetings: Montreal 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS | OU 5-5

The Montreal Alouettes have split their last half-dozen games with the B.C. Lions both SU and ATS as those teams meet in the first division semi-final of the day on Sunday, with the Lions crossing over from the West for the matchup. The Alouettes and Lions also split their two meetings this past season, with Montreal winning 24-9 at home as a 3-point underdog on July 4 and B.C. winning 41-5 at home as a 7.5-point favorite on July 19. Each of the last three games between the Alouettes and the Lions have turned out to be UNDER results on the CFL betting lines at the sportsbooks.

Saskatchewan at Edmonton

Last 10 Meetings: Edmonton 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS | OU 5-5

The Saskatchewan Roughriders just snapped a losing skid against the Edmonton Eskimos as those teams meet in the second division semi-final of the day on Sunday. The Roughriders had been on runs of 0-3 SU and 0-5 ATS against the Eskimos until Saskatchewan topped Edmonton 24-17 as a 1.5-point home favorite on the CFL betting lines to end the regular season last weekend. Edmonton had been 2-0 both SU and ATS against Saskatchewan on the season heading into that contest, winning 24-0 at home as a 5.5-point favorite and 24-19 on the road as a 4.5-point underdog. The UNDER has gone 4-1 in the last five games between the two teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grey Cup Playoffs ready to start

BC Lions at Montreal Alouettes

In the Eastern Semi-Final game which features a East Coast vs West Coast, BC will travel nearly 5,000 km East as they begin their journey to become the fourth straight team to play at home in the Grey Cup.

The two teams played each other twice and split the season series. The first game in Week 2 saw the Als win 24-9. The second meeting of the year saw BC return the favour and defeat the Als 41-5.

The winner of this matchup will travel to Tim Hortons Field, where Hamilton will be waiting patiently for their Eastern Final opponent. Since opening their new den, the Ticats have gone 6-0 and will be looking to make their second straight Grey Cup.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos

The Western Semi-Final features the reigning Grey Cup Champs, Saskatchewan Roughriders who will travel to Alberta hoping for a two-game stay in the province. After facing off against each other in the final week of the season, in a chippy affair, there will be no love lost when the two teams meet in the Grey Cup Playoffs.

During the season, the teams played against each other three times with the Esks taking the series 2-1. They met in Week 14, with Edmonton shutting out the Riders 24-0. In their second meeting Edmonton took it again with a 24-19 win at Mosaic. Their most recent game in the final week of the season saw the Riders win 24-17.

Calgary will be awaiting the winner of this game as they will play host in the Western Final. They will use the extra week off to heal all their players' bumps and bruises and for others nursing larger injuries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Playoffs, first round

British Columbia Lions/Montreal Alouettes 3, 45

Saskatchewan Roughriders/Edmonton Eskimos