Sunday 11/13/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Sunday’s games– not a lot of info early on. I’m giving you what I have.

Rice is 36-89 the last four years, but is in Year of Rhoades’ rebuilding program, should show progress this year; Owls have 4 starters back from LY’s 12-20 team. James Madison lost by 7 to Old Dominion in their opener Friday; Dukes were outscored 16-7 on foul line, were -8 in turnovers. CAA teams are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games against Conference USA teams.

Eastern Michigan lost in double OT at Pittsburgh Friday; they were outscored 35-19 on foul line but had 3-point lead in first OT. Eagles have four starters back from LY- they played nine guys 17+ minutes Friday. SMU hammered Gardner-Webb by 28 Friday, so no one got too stressed out in that game. MAC teams covered only one of their last four games against the AAC.

Drexel shot 32% from floor in 78-65 loss at Monmouth Friday; Dragons, have new coach (from Army), only two starters back from LY, but team was 6-25, so no big deal- this is a major rebuild. Rutgers hammered a D-III team in its opener for new coach Pikiell; Scarlet Knights have three starters back from LY’s 7-25 team. Drexel lost by 6 to Penn State of the Big 14 last season.

Delaware hired its coach very late, has almost a whole new team; they beat a school I’ve never heard of by 8 on Friday, Blue Hens lost 3 starters from a 7-25 team and scrambled just to find bodies to fill out roster. Bradley beat a non-D-I school by 15 Friday; Braves went 5-27 LY, but had 10 freshmen on squad- whole team is back. CAA teams were 2-1 against the MVC last year.

Penn State lost at home to Albany Friday; they were down 16 at half. Nittany Lions have three starters back from 16-16 team- they’re expected to be better this year. Duquesne won its opener by 5 over Loyola MD- they were down a hoop with 11:00 left. Dukes lost 3 starters from 17-17 team that lost 10 of its last 12 games. A-14 teams were 4-3 vs spread against the Big 14 LY.

Yale’s best player broke his foot last week and is out for year, big blow for team that lost three other starters from LY’s Ivy League champ (first time since 1962). Washington is recruiting like hell but they lost two kids early to pros this year, Huskies will be very young but very talented- they lost 3 starters from a 19-15 team. Pac-12 teams covered last four games vs Ivy squads.

Wichita State lost VanVleet/Baker to NBA, have 2 starters back from LY’s 26-9 team- they beat a stiff team by 46 Friday.* Shockers are deep but younger than they’ve been in while Long Beach State has 3 starters back from a 20-15 team that lost in NIT; they’ve got veteran guards, which is good- their next 3 games: UNC-Louisville-UCLA. MVC teams split a pair with Big West last season.

UCLA beat Pacific 119-80 Friday; not sure if Bruins are that good or Pacific that bad. Bruins did make 18-30 on arc- they beat Cal State-Northridge by 32 LY. CSUN is expected to rise in Big West this year with an experienced team that finally has a full roster- they whacked a stiff team Friday. Matadors want to play fast, which may not be good here. Pac-12 teams were 10-7 vs spread against the Big West LY.

Siena lost 81-80 at Cornell LY, game Saints led by 14 with 17:27 left to play; they’ve got three starters back from LY’s 21-13 team that lost in 1st round of CBI, are expected to connect with Monmouth for MAAC title. Cornell was 4-29 on arc in 68-62 loss at Binghamton Friday, not a good loss. MAAC teams were 8-6 vs spread when playing Ivy League teams LY.

South Dakota pulled an upset at Drake Friday, winning 79-74 after trailing by 9 early in second half. Coyotes lost all five starters from LY’s 14-18 team- they’ve got only one senior. Bowling Green lost 78-70 in an 81-possession game at Oakland Friday; they covered by going 9-20 on arc. Falcons have 3 starters back from LY, but at least they’ve got the same coach. Summit teams were 4-2 vs spread against MAC teams LY.

Chattanooga (+4) upset Tennessee 82-69 Friday; Vols were only 1-16 on arc, but 30-40 on foul line. Mocs shot 55% inside arc; they’ve got four starters back from 29-6 team that made NCAAs LY. North Carolina won by 20 at Tulane Friday; quick turnaround after long trip, but Carolina is loaded, with three starters back from a 33-7 team. ACC teams are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs SoCon teams.

Fullerton was outscored 23-10 on foul line of 89-82 loss at Portland State LY; Titans made 10-22 on arc but were -8 in turnovers. Fullerton has 3 starters back from LY; they’re 31-62 the last 3+ years, after beating a cupcake Friday. Portland State lost by 18 at Arizona State Friday; Vikings lost three starters from LY’s 13-18 team. Big Sky teams were 8-2 vs spread vs Big West teams LY.

Omaha opened its season with a solid 74-60 win in Santa Barbara; Mavericks outscored UCSB 17-7 on foul line. Omaha has three starters back from an 18-14 team- they play fast, need to defend better. USC beat Montana by 14 Friday, outscoring Griz 27-7 on foul line; Trojans have three starters back from LY’s 21-12 team, but are supposed to slip a little. Summit teams covered two of last three games against the Pac-12.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB*|*UT-CHATTANOOGA*at*N CAROLINA
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 8+ wins in last 10 games, team that had a winning record last season
99-52*since 1997.**(*65.6%*|*41.8 units*)
1-3*this year.**(*25.0%*|*-2.3 units*)

CBB*|*DREXEL*at*RUTGERS
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (DREXEL) after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse
884-1501*since 1997.**(*37.1%*|*-148.8 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Semis
By David Schwab

The 2016 CFL regular season came to a close this past weekend and Winnipeg was able to avenge a previous loss to Ottawa in the backend of a home-and-home series with a 33-20 victory on Friday as a four-point road favorite. Montreal closed out its season with a 32-25 win over Hamilton as a 2 ½-point road underdog in the first of three Saturday games.

Edmonton tuned up for the postseason with a 41-17 rout of Toronto as a 3 ½-point favorite at home and the regular season ended with British Columbia pounding Saskatchewan 41-18 as a heavy 15-point home favorite to pull off the sweep that home-and-home West Division clash.

East Division Semifinals (ESPN2, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Edmonton Eskimos (10-8 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-11 SU, 6-12 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -2 ½
Total: 56 ½

Game Overview

The Eskimos come into the playoffs as a crossover team from the West in what could easily be a direct path back to the Grey Cup Championship against a very weak lineup of East Division teams. They have gotten hot down the stretch with a 5-1 run both straight-up and against the spread over their past six games. The total went OVER 50 in this past Saturday’s win and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games.

Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly sat out last week’s game and still led the CFL in passing with 5,554 yards on the year. He was second in the league in touchdown throws with 28. Reilly also showed great mobility with 406 yards and nine scores on the ground. Running back John White was fourth in the CFL in rushing with 886 yards and he found the end zone eight times.

You can honestly say that Hamilton backed into the playoffs on the strength of it early season record. Since an early September loss to Toronto as 6 ½-point road favorites, the Tiger-Cats have just two SU wins in their last eight games. Even worse for bettors is a 1-7 record ATS over this same stretch of games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last seven games.

To have any shot at advancing to the East finals, Hamilton is going to need a big effort from quarterback Zach Collaros. He ended the regular season with 2,938 passing yards and 18 touchdown throws while battling through an injury-plagued campaign. When his game is on he has proven to be one of the top passers in the league. Hamilton will also need a much better effort from a defense that has allowed at least 29 points in each of its last five games.

Betting Trends

The road team has won the last four meetings both SU and ATS. Edmonton beat the Tiger-Cats 29-26 on Oct. 28 as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the 57 ½-point closing line in that game and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last six games in this inter-division matchup.

West Division Semifinals (ESPN3, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (12-6 SU, 13-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -5
Total: 55

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers went 3-1 both SU and ATS in their last four regular season games with Friday’s win at Ottawa and they come into this game with a 7-2 record ATS on the road this year. They have also been a solid bet as underdogs with a 7-2-1 record ATS when getting points. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven games.

Matt Nichols took over the starting role at quarterback mid-summer and he led Winnipeg to a 10-3 SU record in 13 games. He is fifth on the list in total passing yards with 3,666 and he has tossed 18 touchdowns on the year. Another big part of this offense is running back Andrew Harris with 974 rushing yards on the year. The Blue Bombers averaged 27.6 points a game this season, while allowing an average of 25.2 points on the other side of the ball.

BC needed that win over Saskatchewan to lock up home field advantage for this game and with that victory it closed out the regular season with a 4-2 record both SU and ATS in its last six games. The total went OVER in four of those contests. The Lions are 6-3 ATS at home this season and they went 8-3 ATS when closing as favorites. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games played at home.

The combination of Jonathon Jennings throwing the ball to slotback Emmanuel Arceneaux accounted for 1,566 yards and 13 touchdowns on 105 receptions. Jennings ended the year with 5,226 passing yards which was third-most in the CFL and he was also third in touchdown throws with 27. BC was able to average 30.3 points a game on offense and its defense matches up exactly with Winnipeg in points allowed (25.2).

Betting Trends

These division foes met twice this year with Winnipeg pulling off the season sweep both SU and ATS. They last met on Oct. 14 and the Blue Bombers outlasted BC 35-32 as 5 ½-point road underdogs. The total went well OVER the 56-point closing line in that win and it has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings. Winnipeg is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in its last four games against BC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview - Edmonton Eskimos (11-8) vs Hamilton Tiger Cats (7-11)
Sunday, November 13, 2016 Game Time: 1:00 PM
Venue: Tim Hortons Field - Hamilton, ON
Line: Edmonton Eskimos -3 Total: 57

About the Edmonton Eskimos

The Edmonton Eskimos enter this game with a 11-8 record, including an 5-4 record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Eskimos AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 9-9. On the road, as is the case today, Edmonton is 6-3 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Eskimos games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 10 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 8 occasion. On the road, Edmonton games have gone 4-5 respectively.

VISITING TEAM SNAPSHOT
Edmonton Eskimos Stats & Trends
* 11-8 Straight Up this season
* 5-4 on the road
* 9-9 Against the Spread this season
* 6-3 ATS on the road
* 10-8 Over/Under
* 30.2 Average Points Scored
* 26.7 Average Points Allowed

About the Hamilton Tiger Cats

The Hamilton Tiger Cats enter this game with a 7-11 record, including an - record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Tiger Cats AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 6-12. When playing here at home, as is the case today, Hamilton is 2-7 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Tiger Cats games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 8 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 9 occasion. Here in Hamilton, games have gone 4-5 respectively.

HOME TEAM SNAPSHOT
Hamilton Tiger Cats Stats & Trends
* 7-11 Straight Up this season
* 3-6 at home
* 6-12 Against the Spread this season
* 2-7 ATS at home
* 8-9 Over/Under
* 28.2 Average Points Scored
* 27.9 Average Points Allowed

Prior Games Between the Eskimos and the Tiger Cats

Date Away Score Home Score Line Total

October 28, 2016 Edmonton 29 Hamilton 26 -2.5 57.0

July 23, 2016 Hamilton 37 Edmonton 31 -5.0 54.0

September 19, 2015 Edmonton 25 Hamilton 18 -6.0 51.0

August 21, 2015 Hamilton 49 Edmonton 20 2.0 48.5

September 20, 2014 Edmonton 23 Hamilton 25 -2.0 51.0

The Predicted Final Score of this game is Hamilton Tiger Cats 29 - Edmonton Eskimos 27

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview - Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7) vs BC Lions (12-6)
Sunday, November 13, 2016 | Game Time: 4:30 PM
Venue: BC Place - Vancouver, BC
Line: BC Lions -4.5 Total: 55


About the Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers enter this game with a 11-7 record, including an 7-2 record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Blue Bombers AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 10-8. On the road, as is the case today, Winnipeg is 7-2 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Blue Bombers games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 11 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 7 occasion. On the road, Winnipeg games have gone 7-2 respectively.

VISITING TEAM SNAPSHOT
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Stats & Trends
* 11-7 Straight Up this season
* 7-2 on the road
* 10-8 Against the Spread this season
* 7-2 ATS on the road
* 11-7 Over/Under
* 27.6 Average Points Scored
* 25.2 Average Points Allowed

About the BC Lions

The BC Lions enter this game with a 12-6 record, including an - record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Lions AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 13-5. When playing here at home, as is the case today, BC is 6-3 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Lions games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 9 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 9 occasion. Here in BC, games have gone 5-4 respectively.

HOME TEAM SNAPSHOT
BC Lions Stats & Trends
* 12-6 Straight Up this season
* 6-3 at home
* 13-5 Against the Spread this season
* 6-3 ATS at home
* 9-9 Over/Under
* 30.3 Average Points Scored
* 25.2 Average Points Allowed

Prior Games Between the Blue Bombers and the Lions

Date Away Score Home Score Line Total

October 14, 2016 Winnipeg 35 BC 32 -5.5 56.0

October 8, 2016 BC 35 Winnipeg 37 -1.5 54.0

October 10, 2015 Winnipeg 29 BC 26 -6.0 50.0

July 30, 2015 BC 13 Winnipeg 23

October 25, 2014 BC 28 Winnipeg 23 5.0 45.5

The Predicted Final Score of this game is BC Lions 30 - Winnipeg Blue Bombers 25

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

First round CFL playoff games

Edmonton (11-7) @ Hamilton (8-10)— Eskimos are on road for 5th time in last six games; they won five of last six games, with only loss 32-25 at BC three weeks ago. Edmonton is 3-1 vs spread as a road favorite this year. Hamilton lost five of last six games, with only win in OT at Ottawa; they’ve lost last four home games, are 0-1 as a home underdog. Teams split season series for 5th year in row; road team won both meetings this year, TiCats (+4.5) winning 37-31 in Edmonton July 23, then losing 29-26 at home to Eskimos two weeks ago. Edmonton won four of last six visits here. Four of last six series games stayed under total.

Winnipeg (11-7) @ British Columbia (12-6)— Blue Bombers went 10-3 in last 13 games after a 1-4 start; they won seven of last eight road games, with only loss by 2 at Calgary. Six of last seven Winnipeg games went over the total. Bombers are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; they won last four series games, sweeping BC this season, 37-35/35-32; four of last five series games went over. Lions scored 32.7 pts/game in winning last three games, but two of those were vs lowly Saskatchewan; BC is 8-3 as a favorite this year- four of their last six games went over the total.


— Edmonton (-2.5, 57) @ Hamilton

— Winnipeg @ British Columbia (-4.5, 55)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Cowboys list QB Romo as questionable
By The Sports Xchange

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The listing on the injury report is the first time this season that the 36-year-old Romo has not been ruled out of a game on the Friday before kickoff.
Romo went through his third straight full practice of the week on Friday after being a limited participant in practice over the last two weeks as he works his way back from a compression fracture in his back that occurred during an Aug. 25 preseason game.
Coach Jason Garrett said the Cowboys had not made a decision as to what Romo's role would be this week. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has a 7-1 record with 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions in Romo's absence and remains the starter. The 23-year-old Prescott also ran for four touchdowns.

--Dallas Cowboys defensive end Randy Gregory, already serving two suspensions totaling 14 games for multiple violations of the NFL's drug policy, now may be facing a year-long suspension.
Gregory has failed another drug test, sources informed of the situation told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo.
Gregory served a four-game suspension to start the season for his first substance-abuse violation and is currently serving a 10-game suspension for violating the league's policy for a second time.
Gregory's next suspension will be for a full year. The report would mean he has failed a sixth test -- his fifth while a member of the Cowboys. The Nebraska product tested positive for marijuana at the NFL Scouting Combine in 2015.

--Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews will miss his third straight game against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday due a hamstring injury.
Coach Mike McCarthy confirmed that Matthews will not available at Tennessee.
Matthews' hamstring issues began in Week 2 against Minnesota, causing him to sit out the Packers' home opener against Detroit on Sept. 25. He returned after the Packers' Week 4 bye week to start the next three games before experiencing tightness near the end of their 26-10 win over Chicago on Oct. 20.
Matthews practiced last week and appeared to be nearing a return before experiencing a setback and sitting out Sunday's 31-26 loss to Indianapolis.

--Washington Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson is likely out for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings as he continues to deal with a shoulder injury.
Jackson did not participate in practices this week coming off the team's bye week. An MRI exam Thursday revealed no serious structural damage to Jackson's left shoulder. He was listed as doubtful on Friday's injury report.
Redskins coach Jay Gruden said Jackson has "some issues" in his rotator cuff.
The 29-year-old Jackson, a nine-year veteran, has caught 30 passes for 416 yards and a touchdown in eight games this season, averaging a career-low 13.9 yards per catch.

--The Kansas City Chiefs ruled out wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and defensive end Jaye Howard for Sunday's game at the Carolina Panthers.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid also said that Justin Houston probably will be "out" as well, meaning the outside linebacker must wait another week to make his 2016 debut.
Houston has not played since suffering a knee injury against the Buffalo Bills last season. He had surgery in February to repair a balky left ACL and was activated this week from the physically unable to perform list.
Reid said he would talk to Houston before making a final decision, saying there have been "no setbacks" in the star linebacker's recovery. Houston recorded 22 sacks in 2014 and had 7.5 sacks last year before being knocked out of the last five regular-season games with the knee injury.

--Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's towel-throwing tantrum has proven to be quite costly in the wallet.
Kelce was fined $24,309 by the NFL after receiving consecutive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties that led to his ejection in last weekend's 19-14 victory versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The 27-year-old Kelce reportedly had words with an official after the lack of a pass interference call on the previous play, prompting the latter to toss the first flag. Kelce took his towel from the waistband of his uniform and threw it in the direction of the same official, subsequently leading to the second flag and his ejection.
Kelce is no stranger to being fined by the NFL, as the league docked him $11,205 in 2014 for making a sexual gesture near a referee who was announcing a penalty.

--New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams after three days of being limited in practice with a knee sprain.
Jets coach Todd Bowles said Fitzpatrick will be a game-time decision to start.
Fitzpatrick and backup quarterback Bryce Petty took an even number of reps this week. Bowles has not ruled out the possibility of dressing rookie Christian Hackenberg as insurance.
Jets center Nick Mangold has been ruled out for the third straight week because of an ankle injury. Mangold said Thursday that he suffered a setback last week. He was out of his walking boot and preparing to return to practice.

--The Philadelphia Eagles promoted cornerback Aaron Grymes from the practice squad to add depth at the position.
Starting cornerback Leodis McKelvin (hamstring) is listed as questionable. In addition, starting cornerback Nolan Carroll is nursing a hamstring injury but was not listed on the injury report.
Eagles head coach Doug Pederson said Friday that Grymes would fill the team's final roster spot before Sunday's home game with the Atlanta Falcons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: Steelers open as three-point faves over Cowboys for Week 10
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 10 of the NFL season features a showdown of traditional powerhouses. We talk about the opening line for that matchup and three others this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Dallas continues to roll behind rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, winning seven in a row SU and ATS after losing its regular-season opener. The Cowboys (7-1 SU and ATS) rolled league doormat Cleveland 35-10 Sunday as a 7-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger back for Sunday’s game at Baltimore, but it sure didn’t help much. The Steelers (4-4 SU and ATS) trailed 21-0 early in the fourth quarter before getting a couple late TDs to make a 21-14 loss look more respectable than it was. Pittsburgh, which went off as a 3.5-point favorite, has now dropped three in a row SU and ATS.

“The Steelers are coming off a brutal performance,” Childs said. “They scored two fourth-quarter TDs to make the score respectable, but their play certainly wasn’t. They will need a monster effort here against the Cowboys, a team playing at a high level and off a very dominating win against the Browns.”

That said, if there’s a letdown looming, Childs thinks it could be this week.

“I don’t like this spot at all for the Cowboys,” he said. “This team is very fat and happy, winning seven straight and off their most dominating win of the year. This is their second of back-to-back road games, going into Steel Country, playing a very upset Steelers team. No question, the Steelers will bring 100 percent focus and effort against the Cowboys. I’m not that sure you can say the same about the Cowboys.”

Dallas’ current run, and all the public support that surge has brought at the betting window, made this a tough line to set.

“I wanted to open the Steelers a 3.5-point home favorite, but was convinced that bettors would support the Cowboys at just 3, and boy did they ever,” he said. “We hung 3 and got hammered with Cowboys money. We quickly went to 2.5, and they’re still hammering the Cowboys. At 2.5, we’re not going to be too quick to move the number. The Steelers are a very good team coming off a horrific effort, so I’m more than happy going into this game needing them for a decent decision.”

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU and ATS start behind new coach Doug Pederson and rookie QB Carson Wentz seems like a distant memory. The Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS) have dropped four of five SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 28-23 loss at the New York Giants as a 3-point pup.

Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS) played in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, topping Tampa Bay 43-28 laying 4.5 points on the highway. Childs said bettors already like the Falcons this week.

“We opened Eagles -1, and most of the early money is on the road team,” he said. “The Eagles are off a disappointing loss, actually back-to-back disappointing losses, losing last week in overtime against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely should have won in regulation.

“The Falcons are off a very nice, convincing win over the Bucs, so they come into this game with extra rest and prep time. At the rate the action is coming in on the Falcons, I see us getting to pick ’em at some point Monday. For now, we’re fine dealing Eagles -1.”

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5)

New England is coming off its bye week, so a team running red-hot will also be well-rested for this Sunday night prime-time tilt. In Week 10, the Patriots (7-1 SU and ATS) avenged their lone loss of the year, dumping Buffalo 41-25 as a 7.5-point road fave. New England is 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of Tom Brady, who has 12 TD passes and no interceptions in that stretch.

Seattle still has work to do in Week 9, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter. The Seahawks (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) are in the midst of an up-and-down year, with the past two weeks a microcosm of that: a 6-6 tie at Arizona, followed by a 25-20 loss at New Orleans giving 1 point.

The current form of these two teams forced Sportsbooks to be generous to the Pats this week.

“The Patriots have been crushing bookies all season, so this line is a tad inflated,” Childs said. “I wanted to hang -7, but we opened -7.5, and sure enough, we’re seeing mostly all Patriots money. We went to -7.5 (-115) on the Patriots, charging some extra juice in hopes of discouraging more Pats money.

“But with the Seahawks playing on Monday night, so much will depend on how they perform in front of a national TV audience, because we’ll reopen this game Tuesday morning. Whatever happens in that game, we’ll open the Patriots as high as possible (Tuesday), because they’ve single-handedly cost us a small fortune this season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-3, even)

Cincinnati probably got its bye week at an opportune time this weekend, as a playoff team from last year is struggling to tread water this season. In Week 8, the Bengals (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) settled for a 27-27 tie with Washington.

Meanwhile, New York has put a three-game losing streak behind it by winning two in a row. The Giants (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fended off Philadelphia 28-23 Sunday laying 3 points at home.

New York and Cincy will be under the Monday night spotlight, wrapping up Week 10.

“We opened the Giants -3 even money, Bengals +3 (-120), and so far, it’s very split, even action,” Childs said. “It’s a great Monday night matchup, but I don’t see this game getting lopsided in either direction. This will be a nice, two-way write for us, and unless a sharp group comes in on a side, we won’t be moving this number all that much.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report

Sunday's games

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ATLANTA FALCONS
--Out: RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring), DE Dwight Freeney (quadricep), TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
--Out: G Allen Barbre (hamstring), S Terrence Brooks (hamstring)
--Questionable: LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (hamstring)

CHICAGO BEARS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
CHICAGO BEARS
--Out: CB Deiondre' Hall (ankle)
--Questionable: CB Bryce Callahan (ankle), DT Eddie Goldman (ankle), LB Pernell McPhee (knee), CB Tracy Porter (knee), WR Eddie Royal (toe), DE Mitch Unrein (back)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
--Out: T Kevin Pamphile (concussion), RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot), WR Russell Shepard (hip)
--Doubtful: C Joe Hawley (knee)
--Questionable: RB Doug Martin (hamstring), DT Clinton McDonald (hamstring)

DALLAS COWBOYS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
DALLAS COWBOYS
--Out: S Barry Church (forearm), CB Morris Claiborne (groin)
--Questionable: WR Dez Bryant (knee), DE Ryan Davis (hamstring), T Chaz Green (foot, back), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back, shoulder), G Ronald Leary (concussion), QB Tony Romo (back), T Tyron Smith (back, hip)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: S Jordan Dangerfield (groin), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), WR Markus Wheaton (shoulder), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)

DENVER BRONCOS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
DENVER BRONCOS
--Out: CB Aqib Talib (back), DE Derek Wolfe (elbow)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
--Out: LB Stephone Anthony (hamstring), LB Michael Mauti (illness)
--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (knee), LB Dannell Ellerbe (quadricep), RB Daniel Lasco (hamstring)

GREEN BAY PACKERS at TENNESSEE TITANS
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: LB Clay Matthews (hamstring), CB Damarious Randall (groin), C J.C. Tretter (knee)
--Doubtful: TE Jared Cook (ankle)
--Questionable: S Micah Hyde (shoulder), RB James Starks (knee)
TENNESSEE TITANS
--Questionable: LB Aaron Wallace (shoulder)

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
HOUSTON TEXANS
--Out: S Lonnie Ballentine (groin, knee, ankle), WR Jaelen Strong (ankle)
--Questionable: CB A.J. Bouye (ankle), WR Will Fuller (knee), RB Jonathan Grimes (illness), LB Brian Peters (quadriceps), DT Vince Wilfork (groin)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
--Out: WR Bryan Walters (concussion)
--Questionable: LB Arthur Brown (ankle), S Tashaun Gipson (hamstring), WR Allen Hurns (concussion), DE Chris Smith (eye)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
--Out: LB Justin Houston (knee), DE Jaye Howard (hip), WR Jeremy Maclin (groin)
--Doubtful: CB D.J. White (hand)
--Questionable: LB Derrick Johnson (hamstring)
CAROLINA PANTHERS
--Out: S Colin Jones (concussion), T Michael Oher (concussion)
--Questionable: DT Vernon Butler (ankle), C Gino Gradkowski (knee), C Ryan Kalil (shoulder), DT Kyle Lowe (knee), LB Shaq Thompson (knee)

LOS ANGELES RAMS at NEW YORK JETS
LOS ANGELES RAMS
--Out: WR Nelson Spruce (calf)
--Questionable: DT Michael Brockers (groin), RB Todd Gurley (thigh), CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle), CB Lamarcus Joyner (back), DE Matt Longacre (hip)
NEW YORK JETS
--Out: LB Bruce Carter (quadricep), TE Kellen Davis (elbow), C Nick Mangold (ankle), LB Josh Martin (concussion), CB Marcus Williams (ankle)
--Questionable: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (knee), T Brandon Shell (shoulder), CB Buster Skrine (knee)

MIAMI DOLPHINS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: CB Xavien Howard (knee)
--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (ankle), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), Leonte Carroo (knee), CB Chris Culliver (knee), TE MarQueis Gray (ankle), LB Jelani Jenkins, WR Jarvis Landry (shoulder), TE Dion Sims (concussion), G Anthony Steen (neck), WR Kenny Stills (calf)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
--Out: LB Jatavis Brown (knee), WR Jeremy Butler (ankle), LB Denzel Perryman (hamstring)
--Doubtful: S Jahleel Addae (collarbone), WR Travis Benjamin (knee)
--Questionable: G Orlando Franklin (concussion), TE Hunter Henry (knee), CB Craig Mager (concussion), WR Tyrell Williams (knee)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
--Out: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), CB Marcus Sherels (ankle)
--Questionable: DT Linval Joseph (shoulder), G Zac Kerin (hand), CB Captain Munnerlyn (ankle), WR Laquon Treadwell (hamstring)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
--Doubtful: WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder)
--Questionable: S Will Blackmon (thumb), S Duke Ihenacho (concussion), T Morgan Moses (ankle)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
--Out: LB Aaron Lynch (ankle)
--Questionable: RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder), CB Rashard Robinson (knee), WR Torrey Smith (back)
ARIZONA CARDINALS
--Out: S Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder), CB Tharold Simon (ankle)
--Questionable: LB Alex Okafor (calf)


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS on Sunday night
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Out: DE Michael Bennett (knee), RB Thomas Rawls (fibula)
--Questionable: CB DeAndre Elliott (hamstring), RB Christine Michael (hamstring), T Bradley Sowell (knee), TE Luke Willson (knee)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle), DT Alan Branch (back), WR Julian Edelman (foot), WR Chris Hogan (back)


Monday's game

CINCINNATI BENGALS at NEW YORK GIANTS
CINCINNATI BENGALS
--Out: LB Rey Maualuga (fibula)
--Questionable: DE Michael Johnson (calf), WR James Wright (hamstring)
NEW YORK GIANTS
--Out: LG Justin Pugh (knee)
--Questionable: SS Andrew Adams (shoulder), LB Jonathan Casillas (calf), WR Victor Cruz (ankle), DE Kerry Wynn (concussion).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 10
By Marcus DiNitto

Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season offers a solid card for your betting pleasure. Among the highlights: Broncos at Saints, Falcons at Eagles, Vikings at Redskins, Cowboys at Steelers, and Seahawks at Patriots.

Here are the opening lines for the full slate, with insight from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons and CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night, and early moves and differences among books are noted, too.

Thursday, Nov. 10

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Another Thursday-night thriller awaits bettors this week, as Baltimore lays double digits at home against the winless Browns. CG Technology originally hung Ravens -9, with a quick move to -10, the number at which multiple other Vegas shops opened.

Sunday, Nov. 13

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick ‘em)

There was an even mix of pick ‘ems and Houston -1s being dealt Sunday for this AFC South matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3/-120)

Carolina, which has won two straight games, maintains respect among the betting market, opening -3 at the Westgate with a slight adjustment in its direction to -3 plus the extra vig.

“Carolina’s on a little bit of a roll now, and it’s a game they need way more than Kansas City,” said Salmons.

Asked if the Panthers defense may have turned a corner, Salmons replied, “As long as they play quarterbacks like Case Keenum every week , yeah. The Chiefs will help them out next week because the Chiefs play that slow methodical style that will help Carolina.”

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-1)

New Orleans has won four of its last five games, and with Denver traveling east for an early kickoff after playing at Oakland in the Week 9 prime time slot, Salmons sees this as a good spot for the Saints. Also, the Raiders game was the third in a row missed by Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib.

“We handicapped all that in there when we made (the Saints) the favorite,” said Salmons. “You build all that into the line.”

Simbal said when his group was making this line, they looked back to the Saints’ Week 1 game against the Raiders.

“The Saints and Raiders looked very similar, they’re pretty close to even,” Simbal said. “You figure if the Raiders are a pick at home against the Broncos, the Saints should be the same if not a little bit higher because they have a better home field (advantage) than the Raiders.”

Indeed, CG, as well as the Westgate, opened Saints -1

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2.5)

This was the most heavily-bet game of the Week 10 card at CG’s books on Sunday night, according to Simbal. Gamblers were laying the 2.5 with the Jets early, but Simbal’s group was reluctant to move the line to -3.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

This key NFC clash was one of the most debated among the bookmaking crew at CG, Simbal said. The conversation included suggestions that the line should be Atlanta -1 to others that the Eagles should be 3-poiint favorites. CG settled on Philly -1.5 and took a small bet on the home favorite.

The Westgate opened Philly -2.5 and moved to -2 less than an hour later.

“This is a game Philly really needs, and you kind of shade it in that direction, you know, which team needs it more?,” Salmons said. “Philly needs it more, and it’s home. So that’s our thinking making Philly the favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

Just a few weeks ago, the Vikes were 5-0; now they’re 5-3 and look inept offensively.

CG took some action on Washington -2 and moved to -2.5

“Based on the numbers, the Vikings are the better team, but that’s if you take the whole season into account,” Simbal said. “If you weight the last three weeks or so, the Vikings look horrible. So we talked that one from a pick all the way to (the Vikings being a small favorite).”

Salmons said of the Vikes, “Their defense is awesome, but that can only get you so far. The offense is destroying that team. … At some point (injuries) just catch up to you, Unless they reinvent themselves and start doing some things different , it looks like it’s going to be a struggle the rest of the way.”

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Tennessee Titans

Last week in this space Salmons said Green Bay “looks like a team that got old really fast.” The Packers did nothing to disprove that in a 31-26 home loss to Indianapolis on Sunday.

“The only time they can score is when the other team literally sits back and allows them 20 yards a play and lets them score,” Salmons said Sunday. “If you have any questions about how bad Green Bay really is, watch them not score against the Colts defense” (the Packers trailed 31-13 until midway through the fourth quarter).

The Westgate took money on Green Bay at its opening line of -1 for next week’s game and moved to -2. The action may have been wiseguys playing with the numbers, since Green Bay opened -3 at some offshore shops. In Vegas, the lined ranged from 1.5 to 2.5.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Bucs (-1.5)

CG opened Tampa -1 and was bet to -1.5, while the Westgate opened -2 and stood pat.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

While both of these teams have improved as the season has progressed, San Diego opened -4 at the Westgate before a half-point downward adjustment. As of this writing, 3.5s and 4s were both available in Las Vegas on this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-13)

The largest spread of the week didn’t open large enough, as CG was bet from 11.5 to 13, and the Westgate and William Hill went from 12.5 to 13.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even)

In Simbal’s opinion, this game features probably the second and third best teams in the NFL.

“The Cowboys look it, and the Steelers have the players for it, they just haven’t played well. I think (Ben) Roethlisberger’s inability to be mobile today really hurt them (in Sunday’s loss at Baltimore).”

The Steelers have lost three games in a row, but Roethlisberger’s injury – he returned Sunday but the team was clearly out of sync – may be a valid excuse. Even though he’s back, Roethlisberger’s knee still could be a factor.

“It’s a game Pittsburgh needs a lot more than Dallas does, but the question is can Roethlisberger move around enough where they can score some points,” Salmons said.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7)

This number could be affected by Seattle’s performance Monday night against the Bills, but as things stand now, bettors are laying a touchdown or less for next week’s Sunday nighter and taking anything over a touchdown.

Salmons said the Westgate took action on Seattle +7.5 on its look-ahead lines, issued 10 days in advance, but when the book posted 7 on Sunday night, bettors laid the number. Simbal said CG moved quickly from New England -6.5 to -7 (-120) on Sunday night.

He added, “If the Seahawks don’t look great (Monday) night, you may be looking at 8.”

Monday, Nov. 14

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-2)

There was a mix of 2s and 2.5s on Sunday night as the Giants look to extend their winning streak to four next Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-2.5)

Three straight losses (Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay) resulted in some analysts leaving the streaky Giants for road kill early last month, but things are peachy again in Gotham after three consecutive victories. And now New York (5-3 and two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East) begins a stretch of three very winnable games against sub-.500 competition, starting with the enigmatic Bengals at home. The Bengals have four losses against what passes as the iron of the league in today’s NFL (New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Denver), but could have their hands full on Sunday. Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line to 3.

Game to wait on

Los Angeles at New York Jets (-2.5)

It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but Jets fans have a right to ask just what the heck is going on with their team. Matt Forte was supposed to power a strong running game that made up for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s QB deficiencies, and the defense was supposed to be rock solid. Instead, the Jets are 3-6 SU and have given up the most points (and scored the fewest) in the AFC East. More bad news – the Jets have two games left against the Patriots. Miami and Buffalo have “catapulted” the Jets by playing .500 ball. NY is not sure about Fitzpatrick this weekend, but reportedly he’ll play if his ailing knee responds to treatment. Bettors might want to hang on a bit, because backup Bryce Petty has taken only a few snaps in his career.

Total to watch

San Francisco at Arizona (48)

Over players need to be careful here. Arizona has struggled to find any kind of consistent offense this season, but somehow the Cardinals have put together the league’s No. 1 defense (statistically, anyway). San Francisco’s offense, meanwhile, too often seems like it’s moving uphill. The 49ers’ best shot in this one is to establish a ground attack and shorten the game, then try to make a few plays in the fourth quarter. The total has already been bet down from 49, and could go even a bit lower.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 10:

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)

The total in this game caught my eye for this AFC North rivalry on Thursday Night Football. As a 10-point favorite, one may assume the game will be controlled by the dominating team. Baltimore showed quite well versus Pittsburgh this past week, particularly its defense scheme. I don’t see how the Ravens won’t continue that trend against Cleveland.

They’re averaging less than 40 points per game and with the abbreviated work week, we don’t really see the teams trying to run up the score in this intra-divisional contest. Cleveland doesn’t have the firepower to suddenly chalk up too many points against a premier defensive unit. I can’t envision this game producing six touchdowns and a field goal just to tie the total. Any scoreless quarter will make it that much tougher to achieve.

Thursday nights haven’t produced the kind of excitement we usually feel for weekday games. At this point, we see both teams thinking about the extended time off after the game is over than playing full-tilt football. Go with the Under and watch your favorite hockey team instead on another channel.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 42.5)

On the surface, this game looks like a first place team facing a last place team at near pick ‘em – an easy play on the small favorite. But there are some red flags with that assumption that has us going with the home dog in this one.

First, Houston has had a favorable schedule to this point and it’s been all or nothing when it comes to where it plays. At 5-3, all five wins came at home and all three losses on the road. In those three losses, Houston has been outscored 85-22. Conversely, Jacksonville has played a much tougher schedule and has been competitive in its home losses to Green Bay and Baltimore and took a tough loss from Oakland besides the one lone win over Indianapolis.

No one outside of WR DeAndre Hopkins scares me offensively for Houston. And although, the Jaguars are missing that big-play threat, the team has enough results to read between the lines in this game. I also feel the Jaguars will have the incentive on their side. One win here against the division leader and that tightens things up significantly. It’s the perfect storm for the underdogs to prevail this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 48)

The Dolphins head into this game off two good wins against divisional rivals Buffalo and New York. And after a disastrous start, the Chargers are winning with some regularity and have played a tougher schedule than Miami. I made the Chargers closer to -6 which makes this an attractive take on the home favorite.

The Dolphins just completed a four-game home stretch with solid results but have not fared well on the road this season. Their losses to Seattle (second game of the season when they weren’t playing well) and a Brady-less Patriots team was followed by a collapse in Cincinnati in their last road game.

San Diego has found its rhythm with three wins in the past four games against the likes of Denver, Atlanta, and Tennessee. The Bolts stand 3-1 at home and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the most explosive offenses in the league in both wins and losses.

This one won’t be a runaway by any means but the angles of success and failure favor the Chargers. San Diego also can look ahead to a weekend off after this game’s completion with their bye week coming up so they can really let it all hang out in this one. The incentive is with the home team here and we like that angle the best.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 50)

I’m not quite sure what the stronger play is: taking Dallas or taking the Under in this game? All of this focuses on the Steelers lack of scoring the past three games (14, 15 and 16 points) and the terrific defense by Dallas this season. I made this closer to pick with a total of 45 to 46 at best. I’m more inclined to take the Under here as both teams can bring the defense and I find it hard that this game will see more than seven touchdowns and a field goal in the allotted possessions.

Pittsburgh has only gone over 50 twice this season and has been Under in six of its last seven games. Dallas has been over 50 once (and it took overtime to do it) so far this season. Any possessions ending in field goals will take that many more possessions and scoring results to push this Over the total. Not that it can’t be done, but the way the teams are playing at this time, 50 points seems like an awful high total to achieve Sunday.

A big game for both teams, the hype for such a contest usually will bring out the best in defensive play early. That will dictate the rest of the game’s flow. If it’s a close contest throughout, expect time management to devour a ton of clock with field goals being the premium score. I’m not sure how this one got out there so high for the opener but I just don’t see it happening. Stick with the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 10

Last week's sizable underdogs all came to play for the most part, as the six of them combined went 4-2 ATS and 2-4 SU. My thoughts on the AFC South road teams leading the charge turned out to be profitable as Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tennessee went 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU, with the Indianapolis Colts arguably saving their season and winning outright in Green Bay for the first time since 1997.

It was a strong first half in all three phases that allowed the Colts to jump out to an early lead and hold on down the stretch and this week they've got a bye to rest, regroup and get ready to attack the second half of the year.

This week the list of NFL underdogs getting 4 or more points is much smaller as there are only three teams that qualify (not counting Cleveland on TNF), and one of those franchises makes their first, and likely only appearance on this list this season.

Week 10 Underdogs that Qualify

Miami Dolphins (+4); ML (+170)
San Francisco 49ers (+13.5); ML (+700)
Seattle Seahawks (+7.5); ML (+300)

San Francisco is the biggest dog on this list by a longshot as they head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals and it looks like it'll be another outright defeat for the Bay area bunch. San Francisco has yet to win since their Week 1 shutout of the Rams and have been outscored by a 128-61 margin in their three road games. All three of those road losses came by at least 19 points so there is no way a 49ers ML bet this week is worth much consideration.

Miami is another winless road team as they take their act to San Diego after four straight home games. The Dolphins have been playing much better since they inserted RB Jay Ajayi into the starting lineup, have won three straight overall, and put up at least 27 points in all three of those victories.

They've definitely got a shot against a Chargers team who's playing much better themselves and with the loser of this game having a severe uphill climb to claim one of the AFC's wildcard spots this year, we could see a playoff-like atmosphere here. But going on the road for the first time in over a month, (the Dolphins also had a bye week mixed into their four-game homestand) is a little worrisome in a game that could go either way.

That leaves the Seattle Seahawks on the list as they were the team I alluded too in regards to making their first and last appearance on this list. Seattle heads to Foxboro for a Super Bowl 49 rematch with the Patriots.

New England has been running over everyone since Tom Brady returned and will no doubt receive plenty of support this week against the spread despite the Seahawks being arguably the best team the Patriots have faced in awhile. There are no early body clock concerns for Seattle with this being the SNF matchup, but Seattle does have one less day to prepare having closed out Week 9 with a MNF win over Buffalo.

Seattle's 5-2-1 SU record could be called into question too given the league office having now admitted to missing two significant penalties on Seattle (one on MNF vs. Buffalo, the other vs. Atlanta a few weeks back). Had those calls been made, Seattle could be entering this game with a much different record and it's likely why this spread has crept past a touchdown. It's also tough trying to get in the way of the steamrolling train that is the Patriots and while the ML with a winning team like Seattle is luring at 3-1, I'm not ready to go against New England outright at home just yet.

So, with little to choose from, it looks like the only real sizable underdog that warrants a ML play this week is the Dolphins at +170. The fact that this is their first road game in a long time makes it tough though and we could see one of those weeks where one or two of these teams cover the spread, but all of them get a loss in the standings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 42.5)

Houston's red-zone follies vs. Jaguars' clutch defense

The Texans are the toast of a mediocre AFC South division, entering Week 10 action at 5-3 - but with a 5-0 record at home and an 0-3 mark away from Houston, they'll need to figure things out on the road if they hope to fend off Indianapolis and Tennessee. And that won't happen if the Texans continue to struggle in the red zone, as they have for most of the season. Correcting that might prove tricky this week as Houston visits a Jacksonville defense that has been particularly stingy inside the 20.

With Lamar Miller struggling to be the No. 1 back Houston needs, and quarterback Brock Osweiler showing major growing pains in his first year as a starter, the Texans have turned red-zone visits into touchdowns on a league-worst 38.1 percent of their drives so far this season. That rate dips to an abysmal 33.3 percent in three road games, and is miles below the 56.5-percent red zone success rate the Texans posted en route to last year's division crown.

The Jaguars' defense has been maligned as a disappointment following preseason vows that it would be a vastly improved unit - but it has flexed its muscles in the red zone, limiting opponents to a 48.4-percent touchdown rate. Only four teams have been more effective at limiting red-zone touchdowns, and the Jaguars pitched a shutout last time out, holding Kansas City without a red-zone touchdown despite dropping a 19-14 decision. Don't trust the Houston offense this week.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (PK, 50)

Falcons' outstanding O-line vs. Eagles' right-side D-line deficiencies

Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents on the strength of the best season of quarterback Matt Ryan's career. But he isn't the only reason why Atlanta is the runaway NFL leader in scoring; the Falcons' offensive line has been one of the team's biggest bright spots, and is in line for more success this weekend against a Philadelphia defensive line that hasn't been nearly as good as advertised.

Anyone who follows the Falcons with regularity knows that center Alex Mack is the engine of the offensive line, evidenced by his ProFootballFocus grade of 86.2 - the third-best mark at his position. RT Ryan Schraeder (82.6), LG Andy Levitre (82.1) and LT Jake Matthews (74.4) have also excelled, giving Ryan clean pockets all season long while opening up big holes for the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

They'll match up Sunday afternoon against the host Eagles, who have stars of their own on the defensive end but might struggle to contain the Atlanta rush attack, particularly on the right side. DRE Connor Barwin (49.2) is ranked 77th at the position according to PFF, while DRT Beau Allen (41.3) is 108th. A mismatch that significant is sure to make a difference come Sunday, so look for the Falcons to exploit it all afternoon long.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Devonta Freeman

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

Chiefs' extra possessions vs. Panthers' turnover troubles

Opponents beware: The Chiefs' already impressive defense is starting to gain momentum heading into the second half of the season. And that doesn't even include the pivotal return of LB Justin Houston, who was activated off the PUP list on Wednesday and could be in the lineup this weekend. His presence can only bolster a Kansas City defensive unit that has forced a whole lot of turnovers lately - and is primed to keep that run going against clumsy Carolina.

The Chiefs have fashioned a plus-8 turnover differential over their previous three games - far and away the best total in the league over that span, and a major reason why Kansas City enters Week 10 on a four-game winning streak. It leads the NFL in overall turnover differential per game (plus-1.6), and is no stranger to the rarefied air; the Chiefs led the league with a 0.9 per-game turnover differential in 2015 en route to an impressive 11-5 showing.

The Panthers aren't as bad as they were earlier this season, but they still have to overcome a barrage of turnovers that has them at minus-0.8 per game on the season, the fifth-worst rate in the league entering Week 10. That average inexplicably balloons to minus-1.8 per game at home, tied for the worst in the league. Cam Newton might find himself running for his life Sunday - and if that happens, the Chiefs are a good bet to rack up more turnovers.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Cam Newton

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5, 49.5)

Seahawks' third-down struggles vs. Patriots' drive extension skills

The Seattle defense has been mostly good this season, but it would look even better if it could find a way to limit opponents' third-down conversions. Teams have extended drives against the Seahawks at an alarming rate - and that bodes poorly for the visitors this weekend as they take on the powerhouse Patriots, who look to extend their winning streak to five games. New England does many thing well - and converting third downs is one of them.

Seattle pulled out a 31-25 win over the plucky Buffalo Bills last weekend, but the game probably shouldn't have been so close. The Bills were a stunning 12-for-17 on third downs, its best showing of the season. The Seahawks have allowed teams to turn third downs into first downs on 58.5 percent of their opportunities over the last three weeks, and at a 42.9-percent rate for the season; only six teams - including minnows San Francisco and Cleveland - have been worse.

That generosity could be the Seahawks' undoing this weekend, particularly against a New England team that has been nearly unbeatable at home with Tom Brady under center. The Patriots have converted 57.1 percent of their third downs over the previous three games to improve to 47.2 percent for the season - the fourth-best mark in football. If Seattle gives Brady that much more time, this game could be over by halftime.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Rob Gronkowski

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.

"I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."

The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.

"This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."

The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.

"The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.

"We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.

"Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."

The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.

"The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."

The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.

"They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."

Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.

"A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."

Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Falcons' second-half follies give NFC South odds extra value

The Atlanta Falcons may not have stunned a nation, Donald Trump style, but they have surprised football bettors with their strong effort in the first half of the NFL season.

Atlanta heads into Sunday’s matchup with Philadelphia Eagles with a 6-3 SU and ATS record, most recently smashing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28 as a 4.5-point road favorite last Thursday night. The Falcons flaunt the most potent offense in the league, behind the pass/catch combo of Matt Ryan to Julio Jones, scoring a NFL-best 33.9 points on 429.2 yards per game.

And now that we’ve reach the second half of the schedule, it’s time for Atlanta to violently crap the bed like it has for the past three years.

The Falcons know better than any team in football that there are two halves to the calendar, going a combined 8-17 SU and 12-13 ATS from Week 9 to 17 over the previous three seasons. That includes crumbling in 2015, when the Falcons took an identical 6-3 SU mark into a Week 10 bye, then fell flat on their faces with a 2-5 SU finish to the season.

Atlanta was set at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl before that second-half swoon, and priced at 18/1 to win the NFC. This season, the Falcons enter Week 10 listed at 14/1 to win Super Bowl LI (opening at 40/1) and 6/1 to win the conference championship (opened 20/1).

But, with Atlanta’s bad habit of stumbling down the stretch in mind, perhaps the most valuable futures market is the NFC South odds, where books currently have the Falcons atop the board at 1/4 ahead of the rival New Orleans Saints, who are priced at 6/1, Carolina at 7/1, and Tampa Bay at 20/1.

The Saints, who are 4-4 and lost to Atlanta in Week 3, have won four of their last five games and are currently 2.5-point favorites hosting the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.

The Panthers are at the bottom of the NFC South with a 3-5 record, having suffered a Super Bowl hangover in the first half of the season. However, Carolina has won back-to-back games over Arizona and Los Angeles and is a field-goal favorite hosting a banged-up Kansas City squad Sunday.

And the Buccaneers, who are also 3-5 SU, have dropped two in a row but have played an extremely tough schedule, which ranked fifth in strength of schedule at the start of the season and has since been adjusted to No. 3 in the NFL.

The Falcons actually boast the toughest schedule in league, and have a remaining slate that looks like this: at Philadelphia, Bye Week, vs. Arizona, vs. Kansas City, at Los Angeles, vs. San Francisco, at Carolina, and vs. New Orleans in a Week 17 season finale that – given Atlanta’s track record – could be for all the marbles in the division.

Oddsmakers have Week 10’s Falcons-Eagles game set at a pick’em with the total at 50 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Underdogs: Week 10 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

So the shock is wearing off. The results from this past Tuesday are real and the world is still (currently) rotating.

Donald Trump is President Elect of the United States and since this is an underdog column, it must be noted that Trump pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory when he defeated Hillary Clinton.

Even as polls were closing on Election Night, Trump was as much as a 7/1 underdog, compared to Clinton’s -1,500. But that didn’t matter, as the numbers poured in and the reality that the former reality TV star would be the next President set in.

Now we get to see what “Make America Great Again” is really all about.

Luckily for us, America is already pretty great and we have to look no further than some of the Week 10 NFL matchups as an example.

This week features the classic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and is made even better now that both teams are relevant again. However, unlike the election, it feels like the wrong side is favored heading into this All-American showdown.

The Cowboys are heading into Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road pups, which seems like a reasonable line on the surface. But if you dig into the numbers, that spread looks better and better for our purposes.

First of all, let’s state the obvious. The Cowboys have passed every test since Week 1, going 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games to not only sit atop the NFC standings, but also become the NFL’s best bet.

The Cowboys are, of course, led by their dynamic duo of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, and match up very well with the Steelers, even on the road.

Elliot and the Cowboys' fantastic offensive line (maybe the best position group in the whole NFL), lead the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, but it could be Dak who's the key this week. Prescott is completing 66 percent of his passes for 2,020 yards 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Steelers secondary ranks 24th in passing yards against per game, so look for Dallas to try to keep Pittsburgh’s defense off balance with the run game and then attack down field with playaction and roll outs.

Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in his return to the Steelers lineup, completing just 23 of 45 passes for 264 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore.

My gut reaction is to just let the streak ride (which I’m sure my boss and diehard Cowboys fan, @CoversJLo, loves to hear), even without looking further into this game. But when you do, Cowboys fans should be cautiously optimistic their red-hot run can continue.

Pick: Cowboys +2.5


Houston Texans (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

When the line opened at pick'em for this AFC South matchup, I hoped the Texans would eventually be faded down to betting underdogs. I just didn’t think the move would be this drastic.

Obviously, the Texans have struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home, but a matchup with the Jaguars could be all Houston needs to change that. Also, it should be noted, Jacksonville is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at home on the year.

Houston’s third-ranked defense should pose problems for a struggling Jags offense, that has committed eight turnovers during the team's current three-game losing streak. More specifically, Houston ranks second in passing defense and will look to put pressure on Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who is completing just 59.2 percent of his passes and has 10 interceptions this season.

As inconsistent as Houston’s offense has been (*cough* Brock Osweiler) I can see the Texans putting a stranglehold on the division.

Pick: Houston +2.5


Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New England Patriots

This may seem like I’m jumping on the Seahawks bandwagon a little early, but the way Seattle’s offense looked last week has to be encouraging.

Russell Wilson is finally healthy, Jimmy Graham played like the beast he was in New Orleans (plus with no Jamie Collins in New England, who will cover him?), and the defense is as tough as ever.

I know the Patriots are rolling, going 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of the Golden Boy (and potential Trump endorser?) Tom Brady, but this seems like too many points.

Pick: Seahawks +7.5

Last Week: 1-1-1 ATS
Season: 15-11-1 ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL betting action report: Public push on Cowboys, Patriots will decide Week 10 for bookies
By PATRICK EVERSON

The NFL’s regular season has reached double digits, with Week 10 Sunday games on deck, arguably none larger than a matchup of traditional league powers. We talk about where the action is with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Nevada, and Mike Jerome, lines manager.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -3; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

Dallas has been unstoppable SU and ATS since its Week 1 20-19 loss to the New York Giants as 1-point home chalk. In Week 9, the Cowboys (7-1 SU and ATS) drilled the Browns 35-10 as 7-point road faves to keep rolling behind rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.

Pittsburgh is trying to get its quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, up to his standard form. Roethlisberger missed just one game after having minor knee surgery, returning at Baltimore last week. But neither he nor the Steelers looked good in a 21-14 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, as Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 SU and ATS.

“We were the only -2 in town,” on Friday, Bogdanovich said, and though William Hill books went back up to -2.5 by Saturday, make no mistake that Dallas money is driving this line. “We’ll need Pittsburgh for a big number in this game. This is gonna be a monster handle, and it’s gonna be all on Dallas. I know where the masses are.”

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots – Open: -7; Move: -8; Move: -7.5

New England is tied with Dallas for the league’s best SU and ATS records, sitting 7-1 in both categories and certainly looking poised for more success. The Patriots enter this Sunday primetime showdown coming off their bye week and are 4-0 SU and ATS since Tom Brady returned, winning all four games by double digits. In Week 8, the Pats dumped Buffalo 41-25 giving 5.5 points on the road.

Seattle played Buffalo in the Monday nighter last week and had a much tougher test. The Seahawks (5-2-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) were entirely outplayed, but hung on for a 31-25 victory laying 5.5 points at home.

“Depending on how the early results go, this could be a monster decision for us,” Bogdanovich said, alluding to potential parlay liability on the Patriots. “It’s gonna be big regardless, but we’ll need Seattle without question. And it’s all public money on New England. The Patriots are the biggest public team of all time. The sharps should wait until Sunday night to bet this.”

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -2; Move: +1

Philadelphia has struggled since its 3-0 SU and ATS start, and the bettors are surely swayed by that fact this week. The Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS) have dropped four of their last five, including a 28-23 loss at the New York Giants getting three points last week.

Atlanta (6-3 SU an ATS) has won its last two, rolling past Tampa Bay 43-28 last week as a 4.5-point road fave.

“Just a couple hours after we opened the NFL on Monday morning, we got a sharp bet on Atlanta +1, so we moved to pick ‘em,” Jerome said. “On Thursday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Atlanta, so we moved to the current number of Falcons -1. The Falcons are the second-most-popular bet this week. Green Bay is the most popular (at Tennessee).”

At William Hill, the line flipped from Eagles -1.5 to Falcons -1.5.

“Atlanta is playing super and Philly isn’t,” Bogdanovich said. “The line may come back. Philly is drawing money this year from sharps, so we’ll see.”

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints – Open: -1.5; Move: -3

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is 6-3 SU and ATS, yet sits third in the AFC West and faces one of the league’s toughest schedules over the final seven games. The Broncos were no match for Oakland, losing 30-20 as a 1-point road pup last week.

Meanwhile, New Orleans has peeled off victories in four of its last five games, while cashing in all five. The Saints (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped San Francisco 41-23 as 5-point road favorites last week.

“Tuesday morning, we got a sharp bet on the Saints -1.5, so we moved to -2. On Thursday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on the Saints -2, so we moved New Orleans to -3,” Jerome said. “Since 3 is such an important number, I see us staying put on the number and just moving the juice on either team.”

William Hill also opened New Orleans -1.5 and has moved to 3.

“That’s sharp money,” Bogdanovich said of action on the Saints during the week.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans – Open: +1; Move: +3

Green Bay has been far from impressive this season, but bettors seem to think Tennessee might help Aaron Rodgers & Co. this week. The Packers (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) laid an egg at home last week against Indianapolis, falling 31-26 as a 7.5-point favorite.

Tennessee (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) lost to San Diego 43-35 getting 3.5 points on the road last week.

“That’s gonna be a public game,” Bogdanovich said. “Green Bay needs a win, and Tennessee can’t stop anybody. We’re pretty heavy on Green Bay, which means we’ll be buried come Sunday.”

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1.5; Move: +2.5

Chicago comes in off its bye week and with bettors apparently thinking Jay Cutler is back in form. The Bears QB returned on Halloween night against the Vikings, helping Chicago (2-6 SU and ATS) to a 20-10 home victory as a 4.5-point pup.

Tampa Bay (3-5 SU and ATS) is playing its third consecutive home game, having already dropped the first two. Last week, in the Thursday nighter, the Bucs lost to Atlanta 43-28 as a 4.5-point underdog.

“It’s been back-and-forth,” Bogdanovich said of the line movement, particularly between Chicago -1 and pick ‘em on Wednesday and Thursday, before the Bears moved out to -2.5 Friday. “The sharps jumped on the Bears.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 10 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the Sunday schedule.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42)

* Houston has failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of its last four games and four of its last six. The ground game has been effective enough with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue sharing the load, but Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent and has hurt the Texans with nine interceptions. The defense is outstanding against the pass but has had a tough time stopping the run and has recorded just six takeaways – second-fewest in the league.

* Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Chris Ivory led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while quarterback Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City and boast a top-five pass defense, but they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis.

LINE HISTORY: This AFC South battle opened as a pick, early action was on the visiting Texas up as high as 1.5-points, since the line has flipped to -2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 42.

TRENDS

Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-3, 49)

* While Denver is yielding a league-low 183.3 passing yards per contest, its own aerial attack is not faring well, as Trevor Siemian is completing only 59.8 percent of his attempts and has thrown for just 10 touchdowns, tying him for 16th in the league, with five interceptions. He has performed well on the road, however, recording eight TDs while being picked off only once in four contests. Devontae Booker has rushed for a touchdown in two of his last three games and ranks third among NFL rookies with 320 yards on the ground.

* Brees continues to etch his name in the record book after recording his 55th career game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns - the most in history - and became the first player to register 30 performances of 300 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. The 37-year-old is one scoring pass away from joining Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508) as the only quarterbacks to throw for 450 in their careers. Mark Ingram is coming off a 158-yard rushing effort that included a career-best 75-yard touchdown run, which also was the second-longest in franchise history.

LINE HISTORY: New Orleans opened as 1.5-point home favorites and the line has been bet up to 3. The total opened at 48 and has risen one full point to 49.

TRENDS

Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games in Week 10.
Over is 8-1-1 in Saints last 10 home games.

Los Angeles Rams at N.Y. Jets (-1, 40)

* Keenum has two touchdowns against five interceptions in his last two games and coach Jeff Fisher said it was time to give running back Todd Gurley more touches. What has he been waiting for? Gurley, who has carried the ball just five times combined in the fourth quarter of his last three games, emerged as one of the game's rising stars last season by rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on the way to Rookie of the Year honors, but he may find things rough facing New York's fifth-ranked rushing defense. Led by Aaron Donald, who sacked Cam Newton twice last week, the Rams are allowing 20.9 points a game and got back the services of top cornerback Trumaine Johnson last week, who is sure to shadow Jets wideout Brandon Marshall

* Bowles benched star defenders Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson for the first quarter of last week's loss at Miami due to team violations and continued the upheaval this week, waiving defensive lineman Jarvis Jenkins and placing left tackle Ryan Clady (shoulder) on injured reserve on Wednesday. The turmoil seems to be a sign that Bowles' days may be numbered. “I haven’t done a good job,” he said. “We’re 3-6. It speaks for itself. I’ve got to do a lot better job coaching.” After a brutal schedule left them 1-5 to start the season, the Jets responded with a two-game winning streak, but their three wins have come against teams with a combined eight wins and last week's disappointing 27-23 loss to the Dolphins appears to be the end of their playoff hopes.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Jets as 2.5-point home favorites and has been getting bet down all week to 1. The total opened 41 and was quickly dropped to 40, where it has remained all week.

TRENDS

Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 3-0-1 in Jets last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 50)

* Ryan's success routinely hinges on the electric Julio Jones (NFL-best 970 yards), and the stud wide receiver hasn't been shy about giving Philadelphia fits in his career - highlighted by a nine-catch, 141-yard, two-touchdown performance in last season's opener. The 27-year-old Jones also found the end zone versus the Buccaneers on a 3-yard fade and faces an Eagles' secondary that yielded four touchdowns to the Giants' wideouts. While Jones has excelled, running back Devonta Freeman was limited to just 112 yards rushing during the two-game absence of Tevin Coleman (hamstring), who expects to be back on Sunday.

* Although Ryan Mathews has scored in back-to-back contests, fellow running back Darren Sproles has assumed the lead role in the backfield. "By stats and by what you're seeing, I would say that Darren is the No. 1 back right now," coach Doug Pederson said of the 5-foot-6 Sproles. "Obviously we haven't hung our hat on one guy, but we tend to lean more toward Darren Sproles. It's hard to take him off the field right now." The 33-year-old Sproles, who is averaging nearly five yards a carry and 10 yards per catch in eight games, rolled up 126 scrimmage yards (76 receiving, 50 rushing) in the last encounter with Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Eagles a 1-point home favorite and bettors jumped all over the road team bumping that line as high as Falcons +2, before it settled at 1. The total opened at 49.5 and rose as high as 50.5 before settling at 50.

TRENDS

Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 vs. NFC.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

* Kansas City’s offense doesn’t put up flashy numbers, but Smith takes care of the ball and Ware has been a workhorse when healthy. Getting Houston back in the mix would add another pass-rushing element to a stout defense that already includes linebacker Dee Ford, who is tied for third in the league with nine sacks – eight of which have come in the last five games. The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is stopping the run, which could be an issue against a strong Carolina ground attack.

* Carolina’s offense sputtered to a season-low 244 total yards against the Rams, but the Panthers did not commit a turnover for the first time this season. The running game hasn’t been as effective as last season, but quarterback Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart still form a formidable duo for any defense to stop. The Panthers have stifled the run but struggled against the pass despite leading the NFC with 24 sacks.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total at 44. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither has moved as of Saturday.

TRENDS

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-2 in Panthers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.5, 45.5)

* The best news from Chicago coming out of the bye week was on the injury report, where nose tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle), guards Kyle Long (triceps) and Josh Sitton (ankle) and wide receiver Eddie Royal (toe) all were listed as limited but participated in practice. The returns of Long and Sitton should help an offensive line that dominated the Vikings and gave Jordan Howard enough room to run for 153 yards. Royal's return would open the outside for Cutler, who spent more time cutting up the middle of the field with tight end Zach Miller and running backs Howard and Jeremy Langford in his return than he did throwing wide to Alshon Jeffery (four catches, 63 yards).

* Tampa Bay is allowing an average of 29 points - 29th in the NFL - and 398.9 yards (28th), and was carved up for 344 yards and four TDs by Matt Ryan in a 43-28 home loss to Atlanta last week. Winston threw three scoring passes without an interception in the setback and finished the game on the bench after suffering a knee injury but insists he is physically ready to go this week. Winston could get some help in the running game this week from Doug Martin (hamstring), who returned to practice for the first time since Week 2 and is questionable.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 1-point road favorites coming off the bye week and has been rising to 2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has remained there all week.

TRENDS

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 10-2 in Bears last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (3, 49.5)

* Green Bay has been forced to use wide receiver Ty Montgomery in the backfield since Eddie Lacy suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, but running back James Starks practiced on a limited basis Thursday and could rejoin the lineup for the first time since Week 5. The Packers also could get another weapon back on offense as tight end Jared Cook, sidelined since Week 3, also practiced Thursday. Wideout Jordy Nelson admitted his surgically repaired knee is not 100 percent, but he has seven touchdowns on the season. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game.

* Tennessee features the league's second-leading rusher in DeMarco Murray, who has an AFC-best 807 yards but was limited in practice Thursday. With backup Derrick Henry unable to practice due to a calf injury, the Titans need Murray as they pit their third-ranked running attack against a Green Bay defense that is allowing a league-low 75.8 yards on the ground. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to force a fumble.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of 3. The total opened as 48.5 and has been bet up to 49.5 as of Saturday morning.

TRENDS

Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 42)

* Quarterback Sam Bradford has nine touchdowns against only one interception, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in five of his seven starts and doesn't have the luxury of leaning on the running game without Adrian Peterson. Bradford went to the air 40 times in last week's 22-16 overtime loss against visiting Detroit while Minnesota managed 78 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Stefon Diggs had a season-high 13 catches last week while Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging five receptions over the last five games. Nose tackle Linval Joseph and cornerbacks Captain Munnerlyn and Marcus Sherels did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.

* Cousins threw for two scores and a season-high 458 yards in the draw with Cincinnati, but he will face the league's top-ranked scoring defense without his Pro Bowl left tackle. Trent Williams will serve the first of his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Rookie Robert Kelley rushed for 87 yards against the Bengals in his first career start and will get the nod against Minnesota's rugged defense. Deep threat DeSean Jackson missed practice against Thursday, but tight end Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder each had nine receptions and a touchdown in London.

LINE HISTORY: The Redskins opened the week as 2.5-point home favorites and were bet up slightly to 3 midweek, before the number faded back to 2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and dropped a half point to the current number of 42.

TRENDS

Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games following a bye week.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 48)

* With Ajayi's workload at an all-time high, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging 201.7 yards per contest during Miami's three-game winning streak -- with just 149 coming against the Jets. "Whatever it takes," Tannehill said. "Obviously, (149 yards) was plenty last week. If we need 300 this week, then that's what we need. It's just a matter of game by game (doing) whatever it takes to move the chains and put points on the board." Jarvis Landry, who has a team-leading 49 receptions, sat out Thursday's practice with a shoulder injury and Kenny Stills did the same with an ailing calf, but both wideouts are expected to play on Sunday.

* Buoyed by Gordon's presence in the backfield, Philip Rivers continued his strong season by throwing for two touchdowns and a 117.6 rating last week. The veteran Rivers had an easy time of it in his last meeting with Miami, amassing 311 passing yards and three scores in a 30-14 victory on Dec. 20. Trusted target Antonio Gates has reeled in a touchdown pass in consecutive outings, increasing his total to a team-high four and career tally to 108. Tyrell Williams also had a touchdown reception last week and leads the club with 595 yards receiving.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and have been bet up a full point to 4.5. The total opened up at 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 48.5 before fading late in the week to the current number 48.

TRENDS

Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Under is 13-3 in Dolphins last 16 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings.
Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-14, 48)

* Kaepernick showed signs of his former self last week, passing for 398 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. He also ran for 23 yards, raising his career total of 2,005 to join Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach the 2,000-yard plateau. Vance McDonald has registered two touchdowns of at least 65 yards this year, making him the fourth NFL tight end since 1970 and first since Shannon Sharpe in 1997 to do so in the one season.

* The injury bug continues to bite Arizona as it lost tackle Jared Veldheer to a torn biceps tendon and safety Tyrann Mathieu to a shoulder subluxation in its loss to Carolina in Week 8. The Cardinals, who hope to have Mathieu back in a week or two, also have 10 players on season-ending injured reserve. Johnson leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns and ranks first in the entire league with 1,112 yards from scrimmage, including a franchise-record streak of eight straight games with at least 100.

LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as massive 13-point home favorites and has been steadily rising to 14. The total opened at 49 and dropped to 48 that day and has remained at that number all week.

TRENDS

Over is 15-3 in 49ers last 18 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 home games.
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 49.5)

* Slot receiver Cole Beasley leads the team in catches (43) and receiving yards (499) and touchdowns, with his club-best fourth score in the last four games coming on Sunday. Fellow wideout Dez Bryant has caught 16 of 41 passes thrown his way, with only one for 19 yards against the battered Browns' secondary last week. "We're chasing something. It's not a one-man show,” Bryant said of Dallas' winning ways. Veteran tight end Jason Witten was the target of choice last week for Prescott, reeling in eight receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown.

* Pittsburgh's potent offense was asleep through three quarters last week as it mustered just 69 yards before Roethlisberger woke up and tossed a touchdown pass to Antonio Brown and rushed for another. While electric Le'Veon Bell is a trusted option out of the backfield, Pittsburgh has struggled to find a consistency in the passing game - outside of Brown - with Martavis Bryant suspended for the season. Sammie Coates has followed a strong start with just four yards in his last three games and fellow wideouts Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot) are nursing injuries. Eli Rogers recorded a team-leading 103 receiving yards - all in the fourth quarter - to show promise after his development had been slowed by both turf toe and a reported disciplinary decision in Week 7 (he was inactive).

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 51 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 49.5.

TRENDS

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David

Week 9 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 17-9 (65%) over the past two weeks. A lot of team total ‘over’ tickets cashed as well with eight clubs scoring 30 or more points and three of those teams put up 40-plus points. Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 72-60-1 (55%) record.

Divisional Action

There are only two divisional games scheduled in Week 10 and they’re certainly not must-see matchups but we do have some angles to check out.

Houston at Jacksonville: Even though this game has a low number (42), bettors should be aware that the first five AFC South games have went ‘over’ the number this season. Even with that angle, it’s tough to make a case for the high side on this game from what we’ve seen between this pair so far. Houston hasn’t won on the road (0-3) and it’s scored a total of 22 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless at home and their averaging 18.7 points per game. We’ve seen the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

San Francisco at Arizona: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season at home yet the oddsmakers have posted a total of 48 for this week’s matchup versus San Francisco. The Cards beat the 49ers earlier this season, notching a 33-21 road win in a Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (42 ½) connected with a big second-half behind backup QB Drew Stanton. The 49ers defense (32.5 PPG) is the worst in the league and the porous unit has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2 this season.

Coast-to-Coast

This popular total trend is in play again this weekend with not one but two games. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed.

West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) when these situations arise. I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is for these lopsided results but be aware of it and follow or fade at your own discretion.

Los Angeles at N.Y. Jets: Lowest total (40) on the board. The L.A. offense (18.4 PPG) has been better on the road and the Rams scored a season-high 37 at Tampa Bay in Week 3 and also posted 28 at Detroit in Week 6.

Seattle at New England: (See Below)

I’ve also been charting the East Coast teams playing in the Pacific Time Zone and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those situations. Miami will fall into this situation this weekend at San Diego and then again in Week 11 at Los Angeles.

Fifty Something

We had two totals close in the fifties last week and they both saw the ‘over’ connect. As of Saturday morning, there are four matchups hovering right around 50 and bettors are leaning to the high side according to the latest trends. Here’s my quick handicap on the totals.

Denver at New Orleans (49 ½): The classic offense vs. defense matchup takes place in the Superdome. The Broncos looked suspect against the Raiders last week and not having defensive back Aqib Talib (doubtful) doesn’t help the cause. The Saints have been installed as home favorites and they’re 0-2 in that role this season, allowing 35 and 45 points. In two trips East this season, Denver scored 29 and 27 respectively at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (50): The Falcons have been the best ‘over’ team (8-1) in the league but I’m not fond of this spot for them on Sunday, especially against a desperate Eagles team that has only allowed 23 total points in three home games this season.

Green Bay at Tennessee (50): Based on the current form for each team, this could be a shootout. Green Bay has allowed 30-plus in three of its last four games and the offense (25 PPG) has kept close to that number during this stretch. Tennessee’s defense started the season on fire but it’s been a mess lately. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 this season and that includes a 4-1 mark in Nashville. Make a note that Tennessee has allowed a league-high seven non-offensive touchdowns this season and as you know, those scores are daggers for ‘under’ wagers.

Dallas at Pittsburgh (49 ½): A lot of money has come in on Dallas and it’s hard to argue against them on paper when you look at the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been diced up this season (276 YPG) and the pass rush has only 11 sacks, ranked last in the league. The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 on the season with the two ‘over’ winners coming at Heinz Field.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and those results also snapped the impressive ‘under’ run on MNF. Including this past Thursday’s result from the Cleveland-Baltimore matchup, the ‘under’ has gone 15-12-1 (56%) in night games this season.

Seattle at New England: Based on the early betting report, the books need the Seahawks to win this game and they’ll likely need the ‘under’ to cash as well. The Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3 this season, which includes a 2-2 mark with QB Tom Brady. The New England offense (34 PPG) has been sharp since he returned but Seattle’s defense (16.8 PPG) will be the best unit he’s faced. The Patriots scoring defense (16.5 PPG) is better than the ‘Hawks yet we’re looking at total (48 ½) and that could have you scratching your head. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 on the road in its last eight games versus AFC foes and its defense hasn’t been great, allowing 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, New England has averaged 30.1 PPG in its last eight home games versus NFC foes. Including the outcome in Super Bowl 49, the last four encounters between the pair have gone ‘over.’

Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants: This total (47) seems a tad high considering the Bengals (20.9 PPG) and Giants (20.1) have both regressed offensively this season. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its home games this season and Cincinnati enters this game on a 3-0 run to the high side. Cincinnati is off the bye and has only averaged 16.7 PPG in its last three games with rest. Cincinnati (5-9) hasn’t been great in night games with QB Andy Dalton and this will be their first primetime game of the season.

Fearless Predictions

I almost managed a split last week but Cleveland failed to score in the second-half, which has become a common theme (51 points in 10 games) for Hue Jackson and company this season. The weekly deficit wound up in the red ($220) and so is the overall bankroll ($240). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Francisco-Arizona 48

Best Under: Kansas City-Carolina 44 ½

Best Team Total: Over Denver 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 59 Atlanta-Philadelphia
Over 40 ½ Denver-New Orleans
Over 39 San Francisco-Arizona