Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
The Sunday Night Football game with Green Bay visiting Denver has just about everything you could want in a regular season game beginning with both teams being undefeated at 6-0. You've got two marquee quarterbacks and two defenses that rank statistically as the best in the league. However, when you look at the betting patterns across Las Vegas sports books, it's clear who the public likes in this game and it isn't the home team.
Denver has one of the better home field advantages in football, and the wise guys have been there to scoop up +3-flat with Denver at places like the South Point when it was available Monday through Thursday, but the public is siding with the Packers no matter what the number is.
"Our biggest parlay game of the week so far is Arizona at about a 10-to-1 ratio (cash taken) and next is the Packers at 8-to-1," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne.
The Cardinals are fast becoming America's (betting) favorites weekly and they're laying 'only' 5-points with them on the road at Cleveland. However, it's very telling how the public feels about Denver when the Broncos are at home -- a trend they loved the past three seasons -- and they still like laying points with the road team.
Who can blame them? Green Bay has covered five of six this season with a QB that has a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while Denver's QB has a 7-to-10 ratio that includes three pick-6s. Still, Denver is 4-2 ATS thanks to its own defense that has returned four turnovers for TDs. The public obviously thinks that is more about luck than talent, and maybe they're right.
The big difference with the top two public games is that almost three times the amount bet on parlays off the board have been on Green Bay compared to Arizona. It's already a big event on a Friday. With this being the final "get-back" game of the day, that number will only rise as most bettors stagger their bank-rolls by start times. In quite a few cases, the late game cash wagered comes from the ATM with hopes of salvaging some kind of profit on the day.
Half the books in town are dealing Green Bay -2.5 and the others are at -3 EVEN. Most have found themselves being at both numbers -- with the exception of MGM Resorts' and Station Casinos books -- which will have most holding their breaths late that a Packers 3-point win doesn't come into the equation so they don't get sided.
"I probably took more than I should of at plus-3 with Denver," said Osborne who said he took nearly nearly three limit wagers before going back to -2.5. "I don't see us going back (to +3). I think I've got enough already and if I get too heavy at -2.5 with Green Bay, I'll just maneuver around on the money-line to attract more Denver action."
But just what is the proper number? Are the Packers really 6-points better than Denver on a neutral field? Because that what this number is telling us. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says he has Green Bay two points better, but there are other variables he says come into play.
"There is this misconception that you always give the home team 3-points, and in Denver's case sometimes 3.5-points. But that all goes out the window when the visiting team is better and in this case, the Packers are definitely the better team, so maybe you only give Denver 1-point for home field."
If that's the case, then maybe the true number for this game should be Green Bay -1.5, which is what John Avello opened them at his Wynn sports book on Sunday night and that number lasted for an entire minute before being bet up to -2 and then 13-minutes later it was bet up to -2.5. He moved up the ladder on Monday from -2.5 -115 to -120 and on Tuesday went to -3 -105 and then -3 EVEN on Thursday.
The public has spoken with both large and small money, but give the sharps +3-flat with Denver and they like that too, which shows you where the value rests and maybe the ceiling point of where this game will end up.
Parlay risk doesn't move numbers, but at some of the local chain of books with the largest parlay volume in the city, staring at high six-figure losses after early results are posted -- when massive parlay risk carries over -- can make the
Bookmaker re-think line movement philosophy. Moving to +3.5 and setting themselves up for a middle seems out of the question at this point. So if liking Denver, take the +3 if you can get it. Same goes for Green Bay backers when seeing -2.5.
The most interesting line movement to watch on the screen this weekend up till game time on this one is over at the South Point where they only use flat numbers.
Public parlay plays of the week: Cardinals, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, Bengals, Jets, Panthers
Sharp plays of the week: Lions, Jets, Cowboys, Broncos +3 (some respected money also on Packers laying less than FG).
Public teaser plays of the week: Cardinals, Falcons, Rams, Seahawks, Panthers
Here's a look at all the line movement over the past 10 days from what the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened last week in their Early Week 8 numbers are where they are on Friday afternoon. The line movement is a combination of rating adjustments (air moves) from Week 7 results, market adjustments and actual bets taken to push the number one way or the other.
Detroit vs. Kansas City (at London): KC opened -2.5, got as high as -6 on Monday and DET has been bet down the ladder down to -3.5.
Minnesota at Chicago: MIN opened -2.5 (-120), and after a brief stint at pick 'em MIN money is moving it back up to -1.5.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: ATL opened -8, and are now -7 (-120).
NY Giants at New Orleans: NO opened -2, they're now -3 (-120).
San Francisco at St. Louis: STL opened -6, and are now -8.
Arizona at Cleveland: AZ opened -4, and are now -6.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: No early line (Roethlisberger ?); CIN opened -2.5 on Tuesday and PITT is now -1.
San Diego at Baltimore: BALT opened -2, and they're now -3.5 (EV).
Tennessee at Houston: No line (Mariota ?) anywhere all week. Mariota is not worth any more to the number than Mettenberger. Let's fire it up guys!
NY Jets at Oakland: NYJ opened -3, and re-opened -2.5 on Monday and has been bet up to -3.
Seattle at Dallas: SEA opened -5.5, and re-opened -6 on Monday and moved to -5.5 on Friday.
Green Bay at Denver: GB opened -3 EVEN, moved to -3-flat on Monday and -2.5-flat on Thursday.
Indianapolis at Carolina: CAR opened -3.5, then re-opened -5.5 after Colts Week 7 home loss. Following MNF win, CAR re-opened at -6.5 and is currently -7 (EV).