Sunday 11/1/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Search
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

CARDINALS at BROWNS 1:00 PM

Take: CARDINALS -6

Yeah, I’m back on the Arizona express here. The Cardinals will be laying significant lumber at Cleveland today, but I see some red flags on the Browns and will try to take advantage by backing the superior team.

The Cardinals will be on the short week after winning at home against the Ravens on Monday night. That certainly isn’t discouraging the masses, as the bulk of the tickets are going to be with Arizona today. But I’ll side with majority as well. In fact, I think the scheduling might actually favor Arizona here. The Browns have a big Thursday date with the rival Bengals on deck and it’s not like they’re coming into this game sharp.

I’ll focus on one aspect of this game in terms of analysis. The only thing that has slowed down the Arizona offense has been the Arizona offense. And that hasn’t happened very often. There have been a couple of games where the efficiency level dropped off, but when a team is averaging better than 32 points per game, it’s safe to say they’re pretty prolific. The Browns have been struggling on defense lately and if that continues today, they’re in a heap of trouble.

I’m also not enamored with the Cleveland offense presently. QB1 has a bad shoulder that he’s going to play through, but McCown is not 100% to be sure. QB2 is an immature stiff. Pardon my lack of tact, but I’ve had my fill of Johnny Manziel, and while I cannot prove it, I’d bet big bucks that plenty of his Cleveland teammates feel the same way.

There’s almost always a way to make a case for the good sized home underdog, and it’s not like I’m going to be shocked beyond belief if the Browns rise up and give the Cardinals a battle today. But the data says it’s not all that likely, and I really feel as though the Browns might have some issues. They weren’t just bad at St. Louis last Sunday, they were terrible. This is not the team to get healthy against, and with the bye week coming up, the road team should be focused on grabbing the win today. I’ll go ahead and spot the points with the Cardinals.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Will Rogers

San Francisco

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off an ugly loss at home last Thursday night, but the good news is they have had a few more days to rest up and prepare for the Rams. The Niners come in as a big dog, but there are a few reasons to be optimistic about this game. I think San Francisco will keep this one close.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Colin Kaepernick - The struggling quarterback had one of the best games of his career in an upset win at St. Louis last year. He threw for 343 yards and three TDs, helping San Francisco win by a score of 31-17. While he's not having a great year, he has had a couple of standout performances on the road at New York and Pittsburgh. He threw for 335 yards and a pair of TDs in a loss to the Steelers, and 262 yards with two scores in a 30-27 defeat at New York.

2. Previous History - These teams have a history of playing close games, with three of the last six meetings decided by three points or less. One of those games was a 24-24 tie.

3. X-Factor - The Rams are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Bruce Marshall

Arizona Cardinals

The best news in Cleveland is that LeBron and the Cavs begin their season this week. It's certainly not the Browns, whose campaign is taking on an eerie similarity to 2014 when things collapsed after the injury to QB Brian Hoyer. Now, Josh McCown's sore shoulder could put Johnny Football (fresh off another off-field controversy) back in the crosshairs. And fans near Lake Erie need no reminders what happened to their team down the stretch with Manziel a year ago. Arizona encountered problems LY, as well, when its QB went down. But as long as Carson Palmer remains in the lineup, much prefer the Big Red arsenal that has been aided greatly by former Pro Bowl RB Chris Johnson, who should find room to rumble vs. the low-ranked Brownie rush defense allowing 5 ypc.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
King Creole

Titans / Texans Under 43

What Man's Best Friend likes about this one is that neither team is 'playing with a full deck' on offense. Both teams are already down to their #2 QB's (Hoyer + Mettenberger). And the injury to RB Adrian Foster is DEVASTATING for the host Texans.

AFC SOUTH division games in which the host (Houston) is favored have gone 1-9 O/U in the last four years when the OU line is > 43 points.

It's Week Eight... and Tennessee is playing their first road game since WEEK TWO! 3-21 O/U L3Y: All road teams off 3 or more home games in a row (Titans) when the OU line is < 53 pts (0-8 O/U last 1.5 seasons).

We are aware that Houston just allowed Miami to ERUPT for 44 points last Sunday... 2-11 O/U L3Y: All division home teams who allowed 40 > pts on the road in their last game (Hou) when the OU line is 51 < points.

On the flip side, Tennessee's strong defense (#5 in the NFL) allowed only 10 points last week versus Atlanta... 1-8 O/U since 2008: All home favorites of < 7 points who allowed 40+ pts last week (Hou) vs an opponent whio allowed 10 < pts last week (Ten) when the OU line is 45 < points.

We are also VERY well aware that Houston has now gone 'Over' in four STRAIGHT games in a row. That's actually a good sign for an 'Under' according to the database: 0-10 O/U last 3 years: All home favorites off 4+ 'OVERS' in a row (Texans) when the OU line is < 52 points. Final score: 20 to 16...
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Andy Iskoe

Houston -3.5

Titans' rookie QB Mariota is out once again this week Tennessee played well defensively in their 10-7 home loss to Atlanta but the offense struggled behind backup QB Mettenberger. It was their fifth straight loss, 3 of which have been by a FG or less. Houston was embarrassed last week in Miami, trailing 41-0 at halftime before putting meaningless points on the board after recess in a 44-26 loss. With back up QB Mallett being released by the Texans the QB position is stabilized with Hoyer now entrenched. There are still concerns on defense. This is a great spot for the hosts as Tennessee is on the road for the first time since Week 2 (September 20, 6 weeks ago). Houston has its Bye next week. Tennessee is a very beatable foe. Although RB Foster is lost for the season, Houston played the first month of the season without him so the offense has game planned without his presence.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
MLB

Sunday, November 1

Trend Report

8:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NY METS
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
NY Mets are 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, November 1


San Antonio @ Boston

Game 703-704
November 1, 2015 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
123.131
Boston
122.056
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 1
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 5 1/2
201 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+5 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Charlotte

Game 701-702
November 1, 2015 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
116.708
Charlotte
118.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charlotte
by 1 1/2
188
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2
193 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+2); Under

Milwaukee @ Toronto

Game 705-706
November 1, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
113.541
Toronto
123.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 10
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
202 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-7); Over

Houston @ Miami

Game 707-708
November 1, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
121.791
Miami
119.324
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
200
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 2
205 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+2); Under

Orlando @ Chicago

Game 709-710
November 1, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
117.237
Chicago
121.785
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 4 1/2
195
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 8
201
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+8); Under

Denver @ Oklahoma City

Game 711-712
November 1, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
120.833
Oklahoma City
125.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 4 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 12
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+12); Over

Dallas @ LA Lakers

Game 713-714
November 1, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
119.819
LA Lakers
108.354
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3); Under
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, November 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 1) at CHARLOTTE (0 - 2) - 11/1/2015, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 64-95 ATS (-40.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.
ATLANTA is 56-42 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 6-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (1 - 1) at BOSTON (1 - 1) - 11/1/2015, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 906-791 ATS (+35.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 716-609 ATS (+46.1 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 302-241 ATS (+36.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 301-246 ATS (+30.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
BOSTON is 87-124 ATS (-49.4 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 4-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (0 - 2) at TORONTO (2 - 0) - 11/1/2015, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 118-85 ATS (+24.5 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
TORONTO is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 11/1/2015, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 58-42 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 292-226 ATS (+43.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
HOUSTON is 116-78 ATS (+30.2 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
HOUSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 105-139 ATS (-47.9 Units) in November games since 1996.
MIAMI is 111-148 ATS (-51.8 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (0 - 2) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 11/1/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (1 - 1) at OKLAHOMA CITY (2 - 0) - 11/1/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (1 - 1) at LA LAKERS (0 - 2) - 11/1/2015, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 441-365 ATS (+39.5 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 139-105 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 5-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-0 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NBA

Sunday, November 1

Trend Report

2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games
San Antonio is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home

6:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MIAMI
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing Houston

6:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. TORONTO
Milwaukee is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Milwaukee

7:00 PM
DENVER vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Denver is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Oklahoma City is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Denver

7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games on the road
Orlando is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing Dallas
LA Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, November 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (5-5-0-0, 10 pts.) at COLORADO (3-6-0-1, 7 pts.) - 11/1/2015, 3:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 4-2 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 4-2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (5-5-0-2, 12 pts.) at CAROLINA (5-6-0-0, 10 pts.) - 11/1/2015, 5:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 5-1 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 5-1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (7-3-0-1, 15 pts.) at MONTREAL (10-2-0-0, 20 pts.) - 11/1/2015, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 10-2 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 10-2 ATS (+10.0 Units) first half of the season this season.
MONTREAL is 28-12 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 22-8 ATS (+12.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 59-42 ATS (+4.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 25-13 ATS (+38.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 15-9 ATS (+26.6 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-2-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (4-7-0-0, 8 pts.) at NY ISLANDERS (6-2-0-3, 15 pts.) - 11/1/2015, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 4-2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE (7-1-0-2, 16 pts.) at ANAHEIM (1-7-0-2, 4 pts.) - 11/1/2015, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ANAHEIM is 5-2 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
ANAHEIM is 5-2-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+7.8 Units)
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NHL

Sunday, November 1

Trend Report

3:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. COLORADO
San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
San Jose is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games at home

5:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

7:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

7:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY ISLANDERS
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
NY Islanders are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Islanders last 10 games when playing Buffalo

8:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. ANAHEIM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games on the road
Anaheim is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing at home against Nashville
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Preview: Royals at Mets

GAME: Kansas City Royals (105-72) at New York Mets (98-77)
DATE/TIME: Sunday, November 01 - 8:00 PM EST
WHERE: Citi Field, New York City, New York
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Playoff Series: World Series; Kansas City leads 3-1

Edinson Volquez takes the mound on Sunday while still grieving the death of his father as the Kansas City Royals try to win their first World Series title since 1985. The host New York Mets have their backs against the wall after the Royals scored three runs in the eighth inning on Saturday to post a 5-3 victory and take a 3-1 series lead.

Volquez started Game 1 on the same day his father died of heart failure and returned to the team shortly before Saturday's contest, pronouncing himself ready to start Game 5. "I just want to thank God for my opportunity to be on the mound and show the world what I have to compete with the other team and give our team a chance to win," Volquez said in a press conference held after Game 4. "I'm pretty sure my dad is going to be proud of me when I pitch." Second baseman Daniel Murphy has been a postseason hero for the Mets, but his error aided Kansas City's comeback win in Game 4 as the Royals capped the three-run uprising with run-scoring singles by Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez. "In the postseason, you can't give away outs," New York manager Terry Collins said afterward. "You've got to make outs. You can't give good teams opportunities to score extra runs, because they can do it."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals RH Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.37 ERA) vs. Mets RH Matt Harvey (2-0, 3.38)

Volquez received a no-decision in Game 1, when he gave up three runs and six hits in six innings. He was away from the team for the better part of four days, but manager Ned Yost wasn't concerned about the possibility that Volquez hadn't done his typical between-start throwing. "It's not a bad thing this time of year," Yost said at a press conference. "Eddie has logged over 200 innings in the regular season. It's not going to affect him a bit."

Harvey gave up three runs and five hits over six innings in Game 1. He didn't throw his usual amount of fastballs as he dissected how to handle Kansas City's lineup. "I felt like I didn't really have the greatest control with my fastball and greatest life," Harvey explained at Saturday's press conference. "So with a team who's known to hit the fastball well, I think when you lose a little bit of confidence in that, you kind of have to try to pitch a little bit differently."

WALK-OFFS

1. New York LF Michael Conforto hit two homers in Game 4, joining Gary Carter (1986) as the only Mets to accomplish the feat in a World Series game.

2. Royals SS Alcides Escobar went 1-for-5 on Saturday to extend his postseason hitting streak to 14 games, breaking the franchise mark recently set by CF Lorenzo Cain.

3. Murphy has belted seven homers in the postseason but is 3-for-17 with no extra-base hits in the World Series.

PREDICTION: Mets 4, Royals 3
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Gridiron Angles - Week 8


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since September 28, 2014 after they allowed fewer points than expected last game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-10-1 ATS (-10.64 ppg) since December 2011 at home after scoring more points than expected last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 at home after a game in which Martellus Bennett had at least 5 receptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 OU (-12.2 ppg) since January 2005 when the total is at least 46 coming off a win as a favorite.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 10-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since 2007 coming off a game which went to overtime.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 15-0 OU at home when they are not the favorite vs a team that has averaged at least 31:50 of possession time season-to-date.

NFL ATS SYSTEM:

-- Teams which allowed at least 12 catches to a receiver last game are 80-57-6 OU. Active on Green Bay.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Vegas Money Moves - Week 8

The Sunday Night Football game with Green Bay visiting Denver has just about everything you could want in a regular season game beginning with both teams being undefeated at 6-0. You've got two marquee quarterbacks and two defenses that rank statistically as the best in the league. However, when you look at the betting patterns across Las Vegas sports books, it's clear who the public likes in this game and it isn't the home team.

Denver has one of the better home field advantages in football, and the wise guys have been there to scoop up +3-flat with Denver at places like the South Point when it was available Monday through Thursday, but the public is siding with the Packers no matter what the number is.

"Our biggest parlay game of the week so far is Arizona at about a 10-to-1 ratio (cash taken) and next is the Packers at 8-to-1," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne.

The Cardinals are fast becoming America's (betting) favorites weekly and they're laying 'only' 5-points with them on the road at Cleveland. However, it's very telling how the public feels about Denver when the Broncos are at home -- a trend they loved the past three seasons -- and they still like laying points with the road team.

Who can blame them? Green Bay has covered five of six this season with a QB that has a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while Denver's QB has a 7-to-10 ratio that includes three pick-6s. Still, Denver is 4-2 ATS thanks to its own defense that has returned four turnovers for TDs. The public obviously thinks that is more about luck than talent, and maybe they're right.

The big difference with the top two public games is that almost three times the amount bet on parlays off the board have been on Green Bay compared to Arizona. It's already a big event on a Friday. With this being the final "get-back" game of the day, that number will only rise as most bettors stagger their bank-rolls by start times. In quite a few cases, the late game cash wagered comes from the ATM with hopes of salvaging some kind of profit on the day.

Half the books in town are dealing Green Bay -2.5 and the others are at -3 EVEN. Most have found themselves being at both numbers -- with the exception of MGM Resorts' and Station Casinos books -- which will have most holding their breaths late that a Packers 3-point win doesn't come into the equation so they don't get sided.

"I probably took more than I should of at plus-3 with Denver," said Osborne who said he took nearly nearly three limit wagers before going back to -2.5. "I don't see us going back (to +3). I think I've got enough already and if I get too heavy at -2.5 with Green Bay, I'll just maneuver around on the money-line to attract more Denver action."

But just what is the proper number? Are the Packers really 6-points better than Denver on a neutral field? Because that what this number is telling us. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says he has Green Bay two points better, but there are other variables he says come into play.

"There is this misconception that you always give the home team 3-points, and in Denver's case sometimes 3.5-points. But that all goes out the window when the visiting team is better and in this case, the Packers are definitely the better team, so maybe you only give Denver 1-point for home field."

If that's the case, then maybe the true number for this game should be Green Bay -1.5, which is what John Avello opened them at his Wynn sports book on Sunday night and that number lasted for an entire minute before being bet up to -2 and then 13-minutes later it was bet up to -2.5. He moved up the ladder on Monday from -2.5 -115 to -120 and on Tuesday went to -3 -105 and then -3 EVEN on Thursday.

The public has spoken with both large and small money, but give the sharps +3-flat with Denver and they like that too, which shows you where the value rests and maybe the ceiling point of where this game will end up.

Parlay risk doesn't move numbers, but at some of the local chain of books with the largest parlay volume in the city, staring at high six-figure losses after early results are posted -- when massive parlay risk carries over -- can make the Bookmaker re-think line movement philosophy. Moving to +3.5 and setting themselves up for a middle seems out of the question at this point. So if liking Denver, take the +3 if you can get it. Same goes for Green Bay backers when seeing -2.5.

The most interesting line movement to watch on the screen this weekend up till game time on this one is over at the South Point where they only use flat numbers.

Public parlay plays of the week: Cardinals, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, Bengals, Jets, Panthers

Sharp plays of the week: Lions, Jets, Cowboys, Broncos +3 (some respected money also on Packers laying less than FG).

Public teaser plays of the week: Cardinals, Falcons, Rams, Seahawks, Panthers

Here's a look at all the line movement over the past 10 days from what the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened last week in their Early Week 8 numbers are where they are on Friday afternoon. The line movement is a combination of rating adjustments (air moves) from Week 7 results, market adjustments and actual bets taken to push the number one way or the other.

Detroit vs. Kansas City (at London): KC opened -2.5, got as high as -6 on Monday and DET has been bet down the ladder down to -3.5.

Minnesota at Chicago: MIN opened -2.5 (-120), and after a brief stint at pick 'em MIN money is moving it back up to -1.5.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: ATL opened -8, and are now -7 (-120).

NY Giants at New Orleans: NO opened -2, they're now -3 (-120).

San Francisco at St. Louis: STL opened -6, and are now -8.

Arizona at Cleveland: AZ opened -4, and are now -6.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: No early line (Roethlisberger ?); CIN opened -2.5 on Tuesday and PITT is now -1.

San Diego at Baltimore: BALT opened -2, and they're now -3.5 (EV).

Tennessee at Houston: No line (Mariota ?) anywhere all week. Mariota is not worth any more to the number than Mettenberger. Let's fire it up guys!

NY Jets at Oakland: NYJ opened -3, and re-opened -2.5 on Monday and has been bet up to -3.

Seattle at Dallas: SEA opened -5.5, and re-opened -6 on Monday and moved to -5.5 on Friday.

Green Bay at Denver: GB opened -3 EVEN, moved to -3-flat on Monday and -2.5-flat on Thursday.

Indianapolis at Carolina: CAR opened -3.5, then re-opened -5.5 after Colts Week 7 home loss. Following MNF win, CAR re-opened at -6.5 and is currently -7 (EV).
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Total Talk - Week 8

Something tells me that the Bookmakers have been very happy with the NFL total results this season, especially with the ‘under’ owning a 16-7 record in nationally televised primetime games. All three games played under the lights last week went ‘under’ and those results usually crush bettors chasing with parlays. Despite those results, total bettors saw a stalemate (7-7) in Week 7. After seven weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 54-50-1 (52%) this season.

VegasInsider.com contributor Dan Dobish mentioned a solid trend on the Jaguars-Bills outcome in last week’s Betting Recap. This game had the lowest total on the board and it easily went ‘over’ the number (41), which was the fourth consecutive week that the lowest number cashed ‘over’ tickets.

If you’re looking to follow that angle, the San Francisco-St. Louis game falls into place and that’s also a TNF System play since the 49ers played at home in Week 7 versus the Seahawks. The angle has gone 3-3 this season and is coming of a loss last week (Saints-Colts).

Non-Conference Affairs

The ‘under’ trend in AFC-NFC matchups continued this past weekend with a 4-0 record, pushing the number to 20-9 (69%) after seven weeks of action. This week’s card has five non-conference games on tap.

Detroit vs. Kansas City from London (9:30 a.m. ET): The ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 in the two overseas games this season and is 7-6 to the ‘over’ since the International Series began in the UK. The Chiefs are on a 3-0 run to the ‘under’ while the Lions are 3-0 to the ‘over’ in their last three.

Arizona at Cleveland: The Browns own the best ‘over’ record (6-1) in the league and the Cardinals (5-2) are right behind them but their last two contests have gone ‘under’ the number. Cleveland’s offense is starting to simmer down and injuries are playing a major part.

San Diego at Baltimore: Oddsmakers sent out 50 ½ on this game and that number has been holding steady. Make a note, that we’ve seen 11 totals listed in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ has gone 9-2 (82%) in those games, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Patriots and Dolphins. Even though this matchup fits two seasonal ‘under’ trends, neither the Ravens (26.9 PPG) or Chargers (28.3) are good defensively and you have two quarterbacks that can move the ball. Those two factors more often than not create great ‘over’ wagers.

Green Bay at Denver: See Below

Indianapolis at Carolina: See Below

Divisional Battles

Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run in this series, which includes an easy 2-0 mark last season as the Vikings only mustered up 13 points in each game. The total this season is much lower (42 ½) due to Minnesota’s ‘under’ tendencies (5-1) under second-year head coach Mike Zimmer.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run and Atlanta has averaged 35.5 points per game during this stretch, which includes a 56-spot at home against Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs scoring defense is tied for last at 29.8 PPG.

San Francisco at St. Louis: This series has seen the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 in the last eight meetings but the combined scoring average (44.3 PPG) has been much higher in St. Louis, which has produced a 3-1 ‘over’ mark during this span.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: We used to see very low totals in this series but the tide started changing last season with numbers ranging from 47 ½ to 48 ½ points. Sunday’s total is in the same neighborhood and with Big Ben expected to go for the Steelers, we should expect points. Pittsburgh is 6-1 to the ‘under’ this season but those numbers should be tossed out due to the aforementioned QB situation. Cincy has quietly gone 5-1 to the ‘over’ behind an offense averaging 30.3 PPG.

Tennessee at Houston: The ‘over’ went 2-0 in both encounters last season but this week’s matchup looks like a toss-up. Tennessee is averaging 10 PPG the last three weeks and starting Zach Mettenberger at QB for the second straight game. Houston’s defense was diced up last week but its two best efforts of the season came against younger QBs in Winston and Bortles.

Under the Lights

As mentioned above, the ‘under’ has gone 16-7 (69%) in primetime games this season which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Patriots and Dolphins. This week’s game are very tough to gauge based on the total form of the teams involved but all of them boast quality players at the quarterback position that have shown the ability in their careers to put up points.

Green Bay at Denver: In any other season, we’d be staring a total in the fifties but the Packers (16.8 PPG) and Broncos (17 PPG) enter this game with the two best scoring defenses. Green Bay has been the better of the two offensively but most of that damage has come at home. Meanwhile, Denver has only played two home games and those games saw a combined 32 and 43 points scored. Both teams are off the bye and they both have impressive numbers with rest. Green Bay has won and covered eight of nine and six straight off the bye and the offense has averaged 36.5 PPG the last four seasons. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the team has gone 3-0 both SU and ATS while averaging 34.3 PPG.

Indianapolis at Carolina: This total seems a tad high (46 ½) knowing Carolina’s defense (18.3 PPG, 339 YPG) is one of the best in the league. However, the Colts unit is one of the worst (408 YPG, 24.9 PPG) in the NFL. Carolina is averaging 27 PPG this season behind the league’s best rushing attack (144 YPG). When the Panthers have been forced to pass, Cam Newtown has done a decent job and he should be excited to face this weak unit. Indy hasn’t been prolific offensively and even though Andrew Luck lost back-to-back games in Week 7, his numbers are still solid off losses. The ‘under’ has gone 7-1 in MNF games this season and the high total makes me believe that both clubs will get at least four scores in this contest.

Fearless Predictions

My losing streak was extended to three weeks after I posted the 0-4 ($430) record in Week 7. I could try to provide reasons but losses are losses and the bankroll is nearing the four-digit mark ($680) as we approach the midseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Indianapolis-Carolina 46

Best Under: Seattle-Dallas 41

Best Team Total: Over 23 ½ St. Louis

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 30 San Francisco-St. Louis
Over 39 ½ Cincinnati-Pittsburgh
Under 55 ½ Arizona-Cleveland
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,883
Messages
13,574,641
Members
100,879
Latest member
am_sports
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com