Books struggle to show Denver respect with NFL Week 8 odds
“It's very rare when Denver is an underdog at home, but this is one of those rare times." - John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas
For many observers, the Denver Broncos’ unbeaten record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. A stout defense has bailed out an embarrassingly-ineffective offense led by a surprisingly pedestrian Peyton Manning.
In Week 8, that smoke could clear and the mirrors could break, with Denver (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) hosting a team that looks much more worthy of its perfect mark – the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS).
Both teams are coming off their bye week. In Week 6, Green Bay held off San Diego 27-20 as a healthy 10.5-point home favorite – the first time this season the Packers haven’t covered the spread. Denver, meanwhile, is arguably coming off the ugliest of several ugly wins, edging Cleveland 26-23 in overtime as 3.5-point road chalk.
John Lester, senior lines manager for
Bookmaker.eu, said the line opened as a pick ‘em for the Sunday night game in the Mile High City, but it moved toward the Packers in a hurry.
“The pros were ready to pounce when we opened this, and in a matter of minutes the number had moved to -2.5 in favor of Green Bay,” Lester tells Covers. “Both teams had a week to prepare, and sit and think about their perfect records. It’s no secret the public is down on Denver due to the negativity surrounding Manning, but it’s not as if Green Bay has destroyed any of its opponents this year.
“I can see this getting to -3 at some point, but there will be some sharps who enter the underdog mix then. The smartest play is probably the Under.”
John Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said Denver has played its way into being a home pup.
“It's very rare when Denver is an underdog at home, but this is one of those rare times. In their two home games, the Broncos just squeaked by the Ravens and Vikings,” Avello tells Covers. “I will say both defenses have played extremely well.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)
Cincinnati (6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS) has been a great on the field and at the betting window, and now has a chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC North. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, after beating Buffalo 34-21, laying three points on the road in Week 6.
Since losing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (knee) in Week 3, Pittsburgh has just hoped to tread water, and has ostensibly done that, going 2-2 SU. The Steelers had a two-game SU and ATS uptick halted at Kansas City, losing 23-13 as 3.5-point underdogs Sunday, and they’ll hope to have Roethlisberger back in the fold this week.
But with that unknown, the line on this game will have to wait.
“The Steelers need Big Ben back, and I believe he will show up for this one,” Avello says. “If that's the case, expect to see the Bengals getting points, and with their ATS record, that's frightening.”
Lester is also prepping for Roethlisberger’s return.
“Big Ben is closer and closer to being ready, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back for this division showdown,” Lester says. “The guy is tough as nails, and him on one leg is better than a healthy Landry Jones or Mike Vick. We’ll hold off on releasing a line until his status becomes clearer. Roethlisberger is worth a full touchdown to a line, so if he’s ready, the Steelers will be favored.”
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Dallas Cowboys
It’s a battle of two teams that made the playoffs last year, but as November dawns, both are in positions where they can’t afford another loss. Two-time defending NFC champion Seattle (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) opened Week 7 in the Thursday night game, shutting down San Francisco 20-3 giving 6.5 points on the road.
Dallas (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) has lost its way without quarterback Tony Romo and wideout Dez Bryant. The Cowboys dropped their fourth in a row SU and ATS Sunday, losing to the New York Giants 27-20 as a 3-point road underdog. Bryant could be back this week, but Romo is out until at least Week 11, meaning Matt Cassel (3 INTs Sunday, including a pick-six) will again be the starter.
“Money came in on the road chalk Sunday night, and we quickly moved to -6,” Lester says. “The public may pile on and get this to the key number at some point, but I don’t expect it will finish there. Matt Cassel was absolutely an upgrade over Brandon Weeden at the pivot for Dallas, and the offensive line had an excellent game at New York. The Cowboys could steal a win here, especially if Dez Bryant is back in the lineup.”
Avello wasn’t quite as sold on Cassel.
“The Cowboys tried a new QB this week and that didn't work, and now they are really desperate for a win,” he says. “The Seahawks aren't that far from desperation either, knowing that Arizona is probably not fading this year, so they must keep pace in the wild-card hunt.”
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (N/A)
Carolina reached the playoffs last season by winning a dismal NFC South Division with a 7-9 SU record. This year, the Panthers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are already on the brink of that same number of wins, after dispatching Philadelphia 27-16 laying three points at home in the Sunday night game. They’ll be in the spotlight again for Week 8, on Monday night.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis – which reached the AFC Championship Game last season – has to be grateful that the AFC South is the top contender for this season’s dismal division award. The Colts (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS), 5.5-point home favorites Sunday against New Orleans, trailed 27-0 at one point and lost 27-21.
“The Colts have looked flat-out bad, and if not for playing in the weakest division in the NFL, they would have no shot at the playoffs,” Avello says. “Carolina keeps rolling at 6-0, and this pointspread may end up higher than I initially thought, due to the direction each team is going.”
Says Lester, “We’ll look to make Carolina around 6-point chalk if everything goes accordingly Sunday night against Philadelphia. The internal turmoil in Indy appears to be affecting performance on the field. Well, that, a bad offensive line and a Swiss-cheese defense.
“It’s two straight prime-time games for a Panthers team that seems to be finally growing accustomed to winning on the big stage.”
