Lenny Del Genio
Denver vs. Baltimore
For the third straight game, the unbeaten Broncos come in as the underdog. Finally we believe the oddsmakers will catch up on them. Both of these teams come off bye weeks, but there is a far greater sense of urgency on the Ravens sideline. Denver, for all its naysayers, has taken control of the AFC West with their big Monday Night win over the Chargers two weeks ago. Baltimore, meanwhile, has lost three straight and is desperate for a victory here. After three weeks and a 3-0 start some NFL insiders were calling the Ravens the best team in the league. Have they suddenly lost it? Not at all. In fact, the three losses to Cincinnati, New England and Minnesota, three of the best seven teams in football, came by a combined 11 points and two of them easily could have been wins as they lost on the game's final play. They were even in position to beat the Patriots in New England if not for a dropped pass by Mark Clayton inside the 10 yd line on a 4th down. Baltimore has a strong history coming out of bye weeks, covering six of seven in this situation. They are also 9-2 ATS as a favorite under HC Harbaugh and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Denver. This will be the first time all season where the Broncos have faced a strong offensive club on the road. QB Flacco ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards. Counterpart Orton does not have the neccessary tools to take advantage of the Ravens secondary. Baltimore is our NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch.
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Denver vs. Baltimore
For the third straight game, the unbeaten Broncos come in as the underdog. Finally we believe the oddsmakers will catch up on them. Both of these teams come off bye weeks, but there is a far greater sense of urgency on the Ravens sideline. Denver, for all its naysayers, has taken control of the AFC West with their big Monday Night win over the Chargers two weeks ago. Baltimore, meanwhile, has lost three straight and is desperate for a victory here. After three weeks and a 3-0 start some NFL insiders were calling the Ravens the best team in the league. Have they suddenly lost it? Not at all. In fact, the three losses to Cincinnati, New England and Minnesota, three of the best seven teams in football, came by a combined 11 points and two of them easily could have been wins as they lost on the game's final play. They were even in position to beat the Patriots in New England if not for a dropped pass by Mark Clayton inside the 10 yd line on a 4th down. Baltimore has a strong history coming out of bye weeks, covering six of seven in this situation. They are also 9-2 ATS as a favorite under HC Harbaugh and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Denver. This will be the first time all season where the Broncos have faced a strong offensive club on the road. QB Flacco ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards. Counterpart Orton does not have the neccessary tools to take advantage of the Ravens secondary. Baltimore is our NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch.
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Larry Ness' 25* AFC Game of the Year (Five in a row?)
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.
