Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Packers
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Packers- To the people thinking their getting "value" with the Vikings plus the points here, I have one thing to say: If it looks to good to be true, it probably is! Guys, to say this is the biggest game of the Aaron Rodgers era is not an under-statement, and I fully expect the Packers signal caller to shine in his team's victory today, and here's why:
Let's start with the single biggest problem the Packers had in their last meeting: Protecting Aaron Rodgers. First of all, the possible return of stud LT Chad Clifton is the answer to Jared Allen, who terrorized Rodgers the last time out. Also, the fact the Packers did not allow a sack at Cleveland is a very positive sign. True, its just the Browns defense, but regardless, this young o-line needed an effort like that one after giving up 25 sacks in their first 5 games - and I believe they can build off that today. Rookie LT T.J. Lang has improved in every game he's played, so even if Clifton doesn't play, I expect the rook to step up after an embarassment the last time facing Allen.
Second, say what you will about the Vikings defense, but against a pass-happy team like the Packers, the loss of CB Antione Winfield is HUGE. He was their best cover corner, and you better believe Rodgers will be looking to throw early and often against this short-handed secondary. Also, after torching Detroit and Clevelan in back-to-back games, Rodges comes into this contest more confident than ever in his offense. Yes, they were two NFL doormats, but fact is this offense needed to work out the kinks in protection, and they did just that.
Third, if the Packers lose this game, the Vikings NFC North lead becomes a real issue. Needless to say, that's big-time motivation for a team that came into this season with a lot of expectations. Everyone knows this is a rivalry game, and both teams want to win, but CLEARLY this game is far more important to the Packers, who are seeking revenge and trying to stay alive in the divisional race.
Finally, trends a plenty pointing away from Minnesota and towards the Pack, as the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 against winning teams, and just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a dog! Green Bay is 4-1 ATS over their L5 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their L10 in divisional play! In the end, you may think you're getting a bargain with the Vikings at this price, but the Packers learned their lesson, and I fully expect FAR better protection this time around. Given time, Rodgers will take care of business (especially with Winfield out)!
Take the Packers over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bills- First thing first, FAR too many bettors are enamored with the Texans in this one, as I see plenty of issues arising for them this afternoon in Buffalo. We all know stud WR Andre Johnson is out, and to say that's a big blow just doesn't cover it. His absence changes the entire gameplan for Buffalo and will allow them to keep their coverages honest (without rolling to one side). Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game for Schaub and company.
While I'm not fan of either Bills quarterback, Edwards or Fitzpatrick, there's no doubt in my mind Fitzpatrick needs to be starting. Even before the concussion, Edwards had lost all of his confidence, and it showed, losing 9 of the L12 games he took the bulk of the snaps. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has not only won 5 straight games as a starter, but he looked good (a.k.a. better than Edwards) in the Bills solid 20-9 win at Carolina last week. It wasn't a huge stat line at all, but he did the one thing that Edwards couldn't do: avoid turnovers! Look for another ball-controll offensive gameplan today, and that should work VERY much in the Bills favor.
The biggest disparity between these two teams comes on the defensive side, where the Texans are extremely vulnerable on the road, allowing 25 ppg on 361 total yards! The Bills meanwhile are a typically stingy AFC East team, allowing 17 ppg on 308 total yards... Not great, but good enough to cover against a Johnson-less Texans offense.
Bottom line, with a HUGE majority of the betting public on the Texans, I'm very much inclined to go the other way here. Texans may be a high-powered offense, but in this particular case (no Johnson, on the road, against a Bills team coming off back-to-back wins), I can easily see them losing outright here. I still want you to take the points, but rest-assured, the majority of the betting public is DEAD wrong about this contest. Buffalo grabs the cash Sunday afternoon at home!
Take the Bills plus the points over the Texans in this NFL match up.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Packers
2. 50,000♦ Bills
1. Packers- To the people thinking their getting "value" with the Vikings plus the points here, I have one thing to say: If it looks to good to be true, it probably is! Guys, to say this is the biggest game of the Aaron Rodgers era is not an under-statement, and I fully expect the Packers signal caller to shine in his team's victory today, and here's why:
Let's start with the single biggest problem the Packers had in their last meeting: Protecting Aaron Rodgers. First of all, the possible return of stud LT Chad Clifton is the answer to Jared Allen, who terrorized Rodgers the last time out. Also, the fact the Packers did not allow a sack at Cleveland is a very positive sign. True, its just the Browns defense, but regardless, this young o-line needed an effort like that one after giving up 25 sacks in their first 5 games - and I believe they can build off that today. Rookie LT T.J. Lang has improved in every game he's played, so even if Clifton doesn't play, I expect the rook to step up after an embarassment the last time facing Allen.
Second, say what you will about the Vikings defense, but against a pass-happy team like the Packers, the loss of CB Antione Winfield is HUGE. He was their best cover corner, and you better believe Rodgers will be looking to throw early and often against this short-handed secondary. Also, after torching Detroit and Clevelan in back-to-back games, Rodges comes into this contest more confident than ever in his offense. Yes, they were two NFL doormats, but fact is this offense needed to work out the kinks in protection, and they did just that.
Third, if the Packers lose this game, the Vikings NFC North lead becomes a real issue. Needless to say, that's big-time motivation for a team that came into this season with a lot of expectations. Everyone knows this is a rivalry game, and both teams want to win, but CLEARLY this game is far more important to the Packers, who are seeking revenge and trying to stay alive in the divisional race.
Finally, trends a plenty pointing away from Minnesota and towards the Pack, as the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their L7 against winning teams, and just 3-7 ATS in their L10 as a dog! Green Bay is 4-1 ATS over their L5 as a favorite and 8-2 ATS in their L10 in divisional play! In the end, you may think you're getting a bargain with the Vikings at this price, but the Packers learned their lesson, and I fully expect FAR better protection this time around. Given time, Rodgers will take care of business (especially with Winfield out)!
Take the Packers over the Vikings as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Bills- First thing first, FAR too many bettors are enamored with the Texans in this one, as I see plenty of issues arising for them this afternoon in Buffalo. We all know stud WR Andre Johnson is out, and to say that's a big blow just doesn't cover it. His absence changes the entire gameplan for Buffalo and will allow them to keep their coverages honest (without rolling to one side). Make no mistake, this will not be an easy game for Schaub and company.
While I'm not fan of either Bills quarterback, Edwards or Fitzpatrick, there's no doubt in my mind Fitzpatrick needs to be starting. Even before the concussion, Edwards had lost all of his confidence, and it showed, losing 9 of the L12 games he took the bulk of the snaps. Fitzpatrick meanwhile has not only won 5 straight games as a starter, but he looked good (a.k.a. better than Edwards) in the Bills solid 20-9 win at Carolina last week. It wasn't a huge stat line at all, but he did the one thing that Edwards couldn't do: avoid turnovers! Look for another ball-controll offensive gameplan today, and that should work VERY much in the Bills favor.
The biggest disparity between these two teams comes on the defensive side, where the Texans are extremely vulnerable on the road, allowing 25 ppg on 361 total yards! The Bills meanwhile are a typically stingy AFC East team, allowing 17 ppg on 308 total yards... Not great, but good enough to cover against a Johnson-less Texans offense.
Bottom line, with a HUGE majority of the betting public on the Texans, I'm very much inclined to go the other way here. Texans may be a high-powered offense, but in this particular case (no Johnson, on the road, against a Bills team coming off back-to-back wins), I can easily see them losing outright here. I still want you to take the points, but rest-assured, the majority of the betting public is DEAD wrong about this contest. Buffalo grabs the cash Sunday afternoon at home!
Take the Bills plus the points over the Texans in this NFL match up.