Sunday 10/5/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 5
By Marc Lawrence

Week Five of the 2014 NFL season is here and with it only two teams remain undefeated – Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom avoided the grim reaper with Bye Weeks.

As we do each week, let’s take a deeper look inside the stats and analyze the numbers to date.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Sept. 29 unless noted otherwise.

By Land or by Air

With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Looking Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. To re-iterate, gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: Green Bay Packers.

These are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- NFL: Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a loss of eight or more points, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS if his squad’s win percentage is .400 or greater.

-- The Chicago Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS in games in which they have been out-gained this season. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS in games in which they have out-gained their opponents.

-- Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog versus opponents off back-to-back losses by an average loss of 15 points per game.

-- Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 18-6 SU and ATS In his NFL career in games off a win when facing a non-division opponent, including 6-0 ATS during the first four games of the season.

-- The Detroit Lions held their first three opponents to season low yards this campaign. They held the New York Jets to a 2nd low yardage mark last week.

-- St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 91-62-1 ATS as an underdog. He has faced Philadelphia only once in his NFL career, defeating the Eagles 31-13 as a 13-point underdog in 2006.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 0-5 SU and ATS in his last five games versus winless opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
By Vince Akins

NFL USER TREND:

-- The Rams are 17-1-1 ATS since November 27, 2005 on the road against a non-divisonal opponent that had less than 200 passing yards in their last game.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since September 30, 2012 when facing a team that ha s allowed more than 4.4 yards per carry season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) past week one when Calvin Johnson had at least seven receptions in a loss the last time they faced this team.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-10 ATS as a road favorite by at least six points.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that lost by a TD in overtime last game are 43-34-3 ATS. Active on Denver.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 27, 2008 on artificial turf after a loss as a dog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at CAROLINA..Bears have won and covered first two as dog on road this season. Chicago also "over" 7-1 last seven since late 2013. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE...Titans no covers and outscored 100-34 last three after opening win over KC. Browns "over" 3-0 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

ST. LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles "over" 5-2-1 last eight reg.-season games. Rams 1-0 as road dog TY, in fact road team 3-0 vs. line in Ram games this season. Fisher 2-6 in role LY but was 7-1 getting points away in 2012.
Slight to "over" and Rams, based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS...G-Men have recovered quick with two SU wins and covers in a row. NYG also "over" 3-1 TY. Falcs 4-9-1 vs. spread last 14 away. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Saints now 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 vs. line at Superdome since 2011 with Sean Payton on sidelines. Saints have also covered 4 of last 5 in series. Saints, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at DALLAS...Jerry Jones 6-15 vs. line last 21 in Arlington. Texans, based on extended Dallas home negatives..

BUFFALO at DETROIT...Lions 7-3 vs. spread as host since 2013. Bills 2-10 last 12 as dog away from home. Lions, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens 8-3 last 11 overall as dog. Indy 6-6 last 12 as Lucas Oil chalk. Ravens, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE...Jags 0-4 SU and vs. line, also "over" 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. Steel just 3-8 as road chalk since 2011 "Over" and slight to Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at DENVER...Broncos now 0-3 vs. line TY, also "under" 2-0-1 after long-running "over" trends prior. Cards "under" 3-0 TY and 6-2 "under" last 8 since late 2013. "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers "under" 11-4 last 15 since mid 2013. Andy Reid 9-1 vs. line away in reg.-season games with Chiefs. Chiefs and "under," based on team trends.

NY JETS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts 8-2 vs. spread last ten since late 2013. But Rexy 7-3 as dog since LY, and underdog is 3-0 in Jets games TY. Slight to Jets, based on recent Rex dog mark.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND...Bengals 11-2 vs. line last 13 away in reg.-season games. Patriots 1-4 vs. line last five since late 2013. Bengals, based on recent trends.


Monday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON...Skins 3-9 vs. line last 12 since mid 2013 (1-3 for Jay Gruden). Seahawks 26-12-2 vs. spread overall since 2012. Seahawks, based on Redskins negatives.

 

[superbeets]

Dutch Eredivisie TODAY 11:30

PSV Eindhoven

v

Excelsior

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		1/5	11/2	12	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT PSV EINDHOVEN	RECENT FORM
HWALHWHWALAL​ Most recent​	6 - 1 4 - 2 2 - 1 4 - 0	HWALHWALHDHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: PSV have won all six of their home games in all competitions this season by an aggregate score of 15-1

EXPERT VERDICT: Two defeats in three matches has seen PSV’s lead at the top evaporate and Thursday’s long Europa League trip to Moscow was far from ideal. However, PSV's home form is rock solid and limited Excelsior don’t look capable of causing an upset.

RECOMMENDATION: PSV to win 2-0
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[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 11:30

Empoli

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Palermo

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN		5/4	21/10	12/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EMPOLI	RECENT FORM
HWALHLADHDAD​ Most recent​	3 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 1	HLHDALHDADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Empoli have kept one clean sheet in their last 11 league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Newly-promoted duo Empoli and Palermo are struggling to adjust to life in Serie A but the Sicilians have greater potential to improve and can bag a valuable away win. Palermo drew 3-3 at Napoli on their last road trip and their lively attack, spearheaded by Italy under-21 international Andrea Belotti, should give them the advantage.

RECOMMENDATION: Palermo
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[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 12:00

Man Utd

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Everton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		13/20	16/5	9/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MAN UTD	RECENT FORM
ADALADHWALHW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 2 - 0 4 - 4 1 - 0	AWHWHLALADAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Nine of Man United’s last ten league home games have featured at least three goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Former Toffee Wayne Rooney misses the reunion with Everton, but Manchester United should still be confident of doing some damage up front. Louis van Gaal’s reign has stumbled early on with the defence regularly crumbling, but his classy attackers should relish facing a team who have conceded 14 goals in their opening six matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2


REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Premiership TODAY 12:45

Inverness CT

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Ross County

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		8/15	3	5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT INVERNESS CT	RECENT FORM
HWHWALALHWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 1	AWALHLALHLHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ross County have only won three of their last 27 away matches in the Premiership

EXPERT VERDICT: Inverness have stuttered in recent weeks after a fine August, but they are still unbeaten at home and should be able to comfortably account for bottom club Ross County. The visitors got their first league win of the season against Dundee but have only scored once on their travels and look vulnerable.

RECOMMENDATION: Inverness to win 2-0
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REFEREE: Craig Thomson STADIUM: Caledonian Stadium

 

[superbeets]

Dutch Eredivisie TODAY 13:30

Feyenoord

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FC Groningen

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		2/5	7/2	13/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FEYENOORD	RECENT FORM
ADHLALHLAWHW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 2 - 1 1 - 0 5 - 1	HWALHWALALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Groningen have lost three of their last four away league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Feyenoord thrashed Go Ahead Eagles 4-0 last week but they have taken just one point from four home matches and look too short to make it back to back league wins. Groningen have lost their last three away, but can stop the rot with a point in Rotterdam.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
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[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 14:00

Lazio

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Sassuolo

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN		1/2	3	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LAZIO	RECENT FORM
HWALHWALHLAW​ Most recent​	3 - 2	HWHDALHDADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sassuolo have conceded no more than once in five of their last six matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Sassuolo have tightened up considerably since a 7-0 loss away to Inter and can dig out a draw from their trip to the Stadio Olimpico. It has been an inconsistent start to the season for Lazio, who lost 1-0 to Udinese in their last home match and the Romans look a little too short for victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 5 Look-Ahead
By Tony Mejia

Is there going to be an undefeated team through four games?

Defense will dictate the answer one way or another.

The burden falls upon Arizona and Cincinnati if it's going to happen, but both have road games against last season's AFC Championship participants as obstacles. To remain perfect, the Cardinals and Bengals will have to pull off upsets since oddsmakers list both as road underdogs.

Aside from the goose egg in the loss column, there is something else the NFL's lone unbeaten teams have in common. Both lead their respective conferences in points allowed per game. The Bengals have given up 11 per through their first three, while the Cardinals check in at 15.0, even with Baltimore and slightly ahead of Detroit (15.5), both of which have played four games.

It's no surprise that all four of those are projected playoff teams in the VI Power Poll, ranking among our Top 10. The Seahawks are your defending champions. Denver went out and tried to upgrade it's resistance, not the Peyton Manning-led arsenal. Replacing Eric Decker with Emmanuel Sanders qualifies as re-stocking, which it appears it's done quite well.

The NFL is a league where most teams can score, but what separates you is defense.

If I were to try and get a head coaching gig from Raiders owner Mark Davis once Jon Gruden turns him down, I'd pitch emulating Seattle, which would include praying D.J. Hayden might finally get healthy. The Seahawks have established the current blue print, which is why next year's draft should see FSU's P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby, Oregon's Ifo Ekpre-Olumu and Alabama safety Landon Collins in high demand as they take center stage in big games. Defensive backs are going to make a massive difference as these rule changes evolve and flags continue to grant chunk yardage.

Arizona's Patrick Peterson is probably the most athletic, physically-gifted corner in the game. We'll now going to see whether he's far along enough to anchor a unit that acquired Antonio Cromartie, welcomed back Tyrann Mathieu and seen rookie Deone Bucannon make an immediate impact. The ingredients are there for the Cardinals secondary to emerge as special.

If you were paying attention in August, you may have already heard Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis call Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard the "best rookie corner I've ever seen." He joined a group of corners featuring consistent veteran Terrence Newman, Leon Hall back from injury and talented Dre Kirkpatrick, who has had a huge impact on special teams. Having that secondary, led by elite safety Reggie Nelson, behind an impressive front seven, gives you the impression that the work the Bengals defense has put in thus far is no fluke. Thus far, they've shut down Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Jake Locker, which means you can't dismiss the caliber of their competition.

Tom Brady is up next. He'll actually be able to hear himself think in friendly Foxboro, but the Bengals aren't the ideal opponent to help revive a defense Brady himself feels hasn't been good for quite some time and comes off a dreadful effort at Kansas City. Considering a potential shift in power is possible in the AFC, the Sunday night game may end up being one of the regular season's most important when we look back on things in January.

The Cardinals will take aim at Peyton Manning and the Broncos, representative of their biggest challenge, but not necessarily a massive step up in class. Thus far, Arizona has handled Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Colin Kaepernick and imposed their will against all of them. It remains to be seen whether losing Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and John Abraham for the season will catch up to them, but it's yet to have an adversely effect thus far. Like Cincinnati, Arizona and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles had the luxury of a bye week in between their last win and Sunday's test against an elite Super Bowl-winning quarterback, improving their chances of success.

Baltimore has long been among the NFL's most respected defensive teams, but this year's unit remains unproven, replacing Arthur Jones, Jameel McClainand James Ihedigbo while the ghosts of defenses past featuring Ray Lewis and Ed Reed remain fresh in people's minds. This year's numbers are certain to be tested by Andrew Luck and the league's highest-scoring offense, but it's a good sign that the Ravens have faced each of their division mates already and more than held their own. Facing the Colts in Indianapolis is the type of game that will either galvanize John Harbaugh's team or expose weakneeses that everyone will be clued in on.

Detroit's defense being this productive can be considered a surprise, though it was statistically best in the NFC North last season. Ndamukong Suh has been a force and the secondary has been solid, which was probably one motivating factor in Buffalo giving Kyle Orton the nod over E.J. Manuel, improving the Bills chances of excelling on the road. Manuel has been brutal enough that the Lions would've been able to capitalize on him the way they did on the road against Geno Smith, but this group has also looked good against Eli Manning, Newton and Aaron Rodgers.

Ranking fifth and sixth in the NFL in lowest scoring average allowed, San Diego (15.75) and Houston (16.75) are also division leaders, givng the teams we're highlighting entering the weekend another common link. The Chargers beat the Seahawks after losing at Arizona on the opening Monday night and have snacked on Buffalo and Jacksonville the past two weeks. With the error-prone Jets in town, you can understand why they're expected to remain ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West whether the Mile High hosts can handle the Cardinals or not.

The Texans will face the Cowboys in a telling game for both, since you undoubtedly could've gotten great odds on the Lone Star state's pro football-playing cities vying for the right to get to 4-1 when they came out for training camp. Houston's J.J. Watt was the AFC Defensive Player of the Month, helping make up for the absence of Jadeveon Clowney, who looked the part of the difference-maker we expected he'd be before hurting his knee. He might be back by month's end.

Tony Romo will be a great adversary since he's backed by the league's top rusher in DeMarco Murray and one of the most feared receivers, Dez Bryant. Although Houston has risen to the top of the AFC South on the strength of the defense, they did allow Eli Manning's breakthrough performance in their only loss. Their wins suggest the verdict should be out on them considering they've beaten a rusty-looking Robert Griffin III, rookie Derek Carr and Manuel, whose benching they forced.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, only one team of the nine that has surrendered 100 or more points has a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1, while the remaining eight are a combined 10-26.

Jacksonville, surrendering an average of 38 points per game, hosts a Pittsburgh team that gave Tampa Bay its first win and should fire offensive coordinator Todd Haley if it fails to keep its season alive with a win. Considering the Steelers have two of the league's top defensive teams in their division and can't afford to fall under .500 one-third of the way in, calling their game against the Jaguars a must-win isn't far-fetched.

Is New Orleans-Tampa Bay an elimination game? Probably.

Tennessee, Washington and the N.Y. Jets are in the same boat among 1-3 teams that hoped to compete for a playoff berth entering the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 5

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Denver -7 vs. Arizona (405)
2) Baltimore +3.5 at Indianapolis (354)
3) Cincinnati -1 at New England (347)
4) San Diego -6.5 vs. N.Y. Jets (347)
5) Chicago +2.5 at Carolina (329)

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay -1.5 WIN
2) Kansas City +3.5 WIN
3) Atlanta -3 LOSS
4) Philadelphia +5.5 WIN
5) New Orleans -3 LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS


2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 5
By Matty Simo

A couple NFL teams coming off brutal performances in primetime will be watched closely by bettors in Week 5, with one of them likely closing as a home underdog for just the second time since 2005. That would be the New England Patriots, who opened as three-point home favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and Pick’em at The Wynn sportsbook but are now one-point dogs at both shops for their Sunday Night Football matchup with the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals.

The Wynn had the Bengals as high as -1.5 on Thursday before Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, moved them back down to -1 on Friday. Outside of the Green Bay Packers routing the Minnesota Vikings 42-10 as nine-point home favorites on Thursday Night Football, the Patriots are the team the public has seen last, remembering how badly they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs as three-point road chalk on Monday Night Football. It even seemed worse than the 41-14 final score by the way the media has blown up the possible beginning of the end for New England’s run this week.

“The coach I know is not happy,” Avello said of Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who has teamed with quarterback Tom Brady to win 11 AFC East titles and three Super Bowls in the last 13 years together. “He just doesn’t even want to talk about it. I guess Brady hasn’t been sharp, but Brady’s been under pressure a lot. The offensive line’s not holding up for him. I think he’s got a lot of weapons, they’re just not clicking right now.”

On the other side are the Bengals, who had a bye last week and are being lauded by many experts as the most complete team in the NFL through the first four weeks. But Avello is not sure that is enough to justify Cincinnati as a road favorite in this spot.

“Granted, they’re playing pretty good,” Avello said of the Bengals. “But do they warrant being the favorite at New England? I don’t know. That is a really tough call right now, fifth game of the year, in a game that one team needs and another team goes in undefeated.

“If you think Cincinnati’s that good and the Patriots are just having an off year, then you bet Cincinnati. If you think New England is a lot better than they’ve shown and they’re going to show it this week, then the money will come in on that side. So I could see us getting buried on one side or the other to be honest with you.”

Another team the betting public does not seem to be reacting as negatively to – but looks to be in a similar predicament – is the New Orleans Saints, who were crushed 38-17 by the Dallas Cowboys as three-point road favorites on Sunday Night Football. The Saints have been the most dominant home team in the NFL recently, going 20-3-1 against the spread in their last 24 games as favorites at the Superdome, including 8-0-1 in their past nine there. They are 10.5-point favorites this week hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South divisional game.

“The Saints are probably in a worse boat because they only have one win,” Avello said. “The Dallas game was just a tremendous spot for Dallas. Because Dallas played them last year and got beat up in that game. It was probably a game that Dallas was pointing to this year. It was a really good spot for them.

“New Orleans, if you look at their previous three games, they blew a game at Cleveland, they blew a game at Atlanta, so they could very easily be 3-1. I don’t think they’re playing bad football. With this type of a team in this type of league, this team has a lot more talent than a lot of teams have. I don’t know if you want to lay points with them right now, but it’s probably a good time to start betting them on the moneyline or something because I just think this team could be 3-1, and they’re 1-3.” So what if the Saints played the Patriots at this point of the season? Avello would make New Orleans the favorite.

“If New England played the Saints on a neutral field right now, I’d make the Saints 3,” he said. “So that’s my feeling about those two teams right now.”

And how ‘bout those Cowboys? Bettors also might be overreacting to their impressive 3-1 start following their big win over New Orleans. Dallas hosts the Houston Texans as a 6-point favorite at The Wynn after opening at -4.5.

“First of all, it’s an in-state rivalry game,” Avello said. “I thought Houston was life-and-death to beat the Bills last week. They won by six, but they should have won by no more than three and possibly lost the game. An inexperienced quarterback for the Bills was the difference in that game. Houston’s running game is a little banged-up right now. If (Arian) Foster’s not playing, this team’s forced to throw the ball. I don’t want to be in a position with Houston where they need to throw the football.

“The Cowboys played a couple good weeks in a row, I would think they’d come back to Earth this week. I don’t expect them to be as sharp as they were last week, but they might still ground out the win.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 5 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
451 BEARS - - -
452 PANTHERS 2.5 2.5 0
453 BROWNS - - -
454 TITANS 2 2 0
455 RAMS - - -
456 EAGLES 7 7 0
457 FALCONS - - -
458 GIANTS 2.5 4 1.5
459 BUCCANEERS - - -
460 SAINTS 11 10 -1
461 TEXANS - - -
462 COWBOYS 3.5 6.5 3
463 BILLS - - -
464 LIONS 7 7 0
465 RAVENS - - -
466 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
467 STEELERS 6.5 6 -0.5
468 JAGUARS - - -
469 CARDINALS - - -
470 BRONCOS 7 7.5 0.5
471 CHIEFS - - -
472 49ERS 7.5 6 -1.5
473 JETS - - -
474 CHARGERS 7 6.5 -0.5
475 BENGALS - 1 -
476 PATRIOTS 3 - -4
477 SEAHAWKS 6.5 7 0.5
478 REDSKINS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David

Week 4 Recap

If you play totals and you lean to shootouts, then we’re guessing you did very well at the betting counter last weekend. After it was all said and done on Monday night, the ‘over’ produced a 10-3 record last week and the three ‘under’ tickets actually had chances to cash as well. On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 32-29 edge through four weeks.

Streaks to Watch

The Jaguars and Colts have both seen the ‘over’ start 4-0. The oddsmakers put out soft totals for both clubs this week and the early money has already seen their numbers jump by at least two points.

The Browns are 3-0 to the ‘over’ this season.

The Bills are 4-0 to the ‘under’ and they just made a quarterback change (Kyle Orton) for this week’s matchup at Detroit. The Lions are 3-1 to the ‘under’ and this total has seen movement down (44 to 43.5).

The Bengals and Cardinals boast great defensive units, which has helped the ‘under’ go 3-0 in each of their first three games. Safe to say that Cincinnati and Arizona will get tested this Sunday as they face Tom Brady and Peyton Manning respectively.

Rusty or Rested?

Week 5 will be the first week of the season where teams will be coming off the bye. Due to changes in the collective bargaining agreement in 2012, players must be given four consecutive days off during the break. I’m going to keep an eye on it and see if anything develops for sides and totals.

Listed below are six teams who should be prepared for games this weekend. Five of the clubs will be on the road and the Cardinals or Broncos shouldn’t have any excuses since they meet one another.

Arizona at Denver
Cincinnati at New England
Cleveland at Tennessee
Denver vs. Arizona
Seattle at Washington
St. Louis at Philadelphia

Total System – Part I

17-2-1….!!!

I’ve seen plenty of eye-opening betting streaks in a lot of sports but this total angle that goes back to last season, is hitting at an 89 percent clip, which is ridiculous!

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, we’ll bring you up to speed. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

In Week 3, Atlanta destroyed Tampa Bay 56-14 at home on Thursday night. Last weekend, the Falcons went on the road and the Vikings posted a 41-28 win against Atlanta and the ‘over’ (48) cashed in the third quarter.

In Week 5, the system takes us to the nation’s capital as Washington hosts Seattle in a Monday Night Football battle.

The Redskins were humbled 45-14 by the Giants in Week 4 on Thursday while the Seahawks haven’t played since Week 3 (see above) after defeating Denver 26-20 in overtime.

Oddsmakers sent this number out at 45 ½ and its held steady as of Saturday evening. Looking at the matchup on paper, I can see this game going two ways. Seattle plays a slow pace and it does a great job running the football (148 YPG), ranked third in the league. Washington (123 YPG) has also been productive running the football. If that tempo is set, the clock is going to run and the ‘under’ could connect. However, the Redskins (27.3 PPG) aren’t a great defensive team and it appears that the Seahawks defensive unit (22 PPG) has dropped off a bit.

Total System – Part II

The above system was brought to me from a VI user (A86) and I’m sure you’re just as grateful as me. Along with interaction via emails with users (which is always welcomed), I frequent the forums and message boards. I’m not an active participant but an observer. If you can get past the “BS” you can really benefit your handicapping with individuals who have a passion for sports betting.

With that being said, I came across a great total angle many years ago and I always bring it up each season. Honestly, I forgot where I saw it or who came up with it but it’s a really good look and it comes into play this Sunday. If anybody knows the user/handicapper, I’ll gladly give credit.

What’s the angle?


Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

According to my numbers and tracking on Total Talk, this angle has produced a 35-15-2 (70%) record the past 10 seasons in the NFL, which includes a 2-0 record in the 2013 season:

Week 6 – Philadelphia 31 at Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 45)
Week 14 – Tennessee 28 at Denver 51 (OVER 50.5)

This season we have four matchups that fit this angle.

Week 5 - Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Week 10 - St. Louis at Arizona
Week 11 - Denver at St. Louis
Week 13 - Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

The game in play this Sunday is the Buccaneers-Saints matchup, which is the only divisional game on Sunday. The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the last four meetings between this pair but New Orleans has scored 42 and 41 points in its last two home games against Tampa Bay. After being held to 20 and 17 points in their last two games, it’s probably an understatement to say that the Saints are due to explode.

Under the Lights

After watching 14 night games this season, bettors have watched the ‘over’ go 12-2 (86%) and that includes this past Thursday’s outcome between Green Bay and Minnesota (42-10). Will the pendulum swing the other way? I dug up the numbers from last season and coincidentally, the ‘over’ started 10-4 (71%). However, at the end of the season the ‘over’ ended up with a 29-21 (58%) record in primetime games.

Cincinnati at New England: This number is hovering around 46 points and similar to last week, this is a tough Patriots team to figure out. Your brain is telling you that New England is done, especially on offense. But your heart and wallet doesn’t want to go against Brady and Belichick. From a totals perspective, it’s hard to imagine New England getting on track against a Cincinnati defense that is ranked first in points allowed (11 PPG). These teams played last season and the Bengals captured a 13-6 decision at home and the ‘under’ (45) was never in doubt. Cincinnati has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four games after a bye week.

Seattle at Washington: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

I could’ve swept the board ($400) last weekend but San Francisco’s offense continues to be inconsistent. It’s always a killer when a team scores six times and four of them are field goals. The small profit pushed the deficit to $50 after four weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New Orleans-Tampa Bay 48

Best Under: Arizona-Denver 48

Best Team Total: Over 29 Saints

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Baltimore-Indianapolis
Over 39 Tampa Bay-New Orleans
Under 57 Arizona-Denver

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 5
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 5!


(Rotation #454) Tennessee -2.5 – This is really an ugly game. The general public has been backing the Browns this week, but we guess this has more to do with the fact that the Titans have progressively looked more and more like a dumpster fire as the weeks have gone on. That said, this isn't an impossible game for the hosts, and the oddsmakers probably have it right to make them short favorites. Cleveland has been much better, but it isn't good enough to be favored on the road against what is perceived to be a comparable team quite yet. A win in this game is very possible, but we still think that the odds are spot on that the Titans are in the better spot.

Opening Line: Tennessee pk
Current Line: Tennessee -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Cleveland

(Rotation #455) St. Louis Rams +7 – Obviously, 71 percent of the people who have bet on this Eagles/Rams game didn't watch the Eagles try to move the ball last week behind what seems to be the worst offensive line in football. Philly was killed up front by the 49ers in Santa Clara, and it showed. Sure, the Eagles put 21 points on the board, but they aren't going to be able to account for three non-offensive touchdowns every single week. Now, St. Louis is coming to town off of its bye, with a fresh take in life at the quarterback position with QB Austin Davis being named the starter for the rest of the year. More importantly, the Rams have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, and they are going to stay aggressive with their blitz packages to test that Philly O-Line. This is a dangerous, dangerous game for the Eagles.

Opening Line: St. Louis +7.5
Current Line: St. Louis +7
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #473) New York +6.5 – Someone knows something that we don't know in this game. The Jets opened up at +7 and have dipped to +6.5 in spite of the fact that 70 percent of the bets are on the Chargers. If nothing else, the law of averages has to kick in at some point. The Chargers are one of the three teams in the NFL to have not suffered an ATS loss this year, while the Jets are one of the three teams in the NFL to not cover a game. QB Geno Smith has been awful, but for our money, he hasn't been nearly as bad as his stats suggest. On top of that, the Jets are going to be able to shut down the San Diego rushing game, the worst in the NFL, and that will make QB Philip Rivers completely one-dimensional. That's what Head Coach Rex Ryan thrives off of.

Opening Line: New York +7
Current Line: New York +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on San Diego

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 5 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Bears at Panthers (-2 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- The Bears are winless at home this season but have won each of their two road contests. Chicago hung with Green Bay early by taking a 17-14 lead late in the second quarter. However, the Bears were outscored, 24-0 the rest of the way in a 38-17 loss to the Packers as a 1 ½-point home underdog. In spite of the defeat, the Bears gained 466 yards on offense, while cashing their third straight ‘over.’
-- The Panthers have dropped two straight since a 2-0 start, coming off an ugly 38-10 defeat at Baltimore as 3 ½-point underdogs. The defense has been torched, allowing 75 points in the last two weeks after giving up just 21 points in the first two victories. To make matters worse, Carolina gave up a staggering 391 yards on the ground combined to the Steelers and Ravens.

Previous meeting: This is the fourth time these teams are hooking up in five seasons, as the road teams cashed in each of the past three matchups. Chicago held off Carolina at Soldier Field, 23-22 as 8 ½-point favorites in 2012, as the Bears won in spite of racking up just 210 yards of offense. The last time the Bears visited Charlotte in 2010, Chicago cruised past Carolina, 23-6 as short underdogs behind Todd Collins, who actually threw four interceptions in the win.

What to watch for: Carolina has won 10 of its past 13 games at Bank of America Stadium, which includes a solid 7-1-1 ATS record in the home favorite role. After posting a 2-6 ATS record in the underdog role last season, the Bears have covered two of three times this season when receiving points, including both times on the highway against the 49ers and Jets. Chicago has been a nearly automatic ‘over’ team away from Soldier Field under Marc Trestman, going 8-2 to the ‘over’ in 10 tries.

Falcons at Giants (-4, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Atlanta continues to struggle on the road, losing each of its first two games away from the Georgia Dome this season. The Falcons were run out by the Vikings as five-point away favorites, 41-28 last Sunday. Minnesota torched Atlanta for 558 yards of offense, the third time the Falcons have allowed at least 470 yards in a game in 2014.
-- The Giants have woken up following an 0-2 start by blowing out the Texans and Redskins. New York ripped apart Washington last Thursday, 45-14, as Eli Manning threw four touchdown passes and ran in another one. The Giants forced nine turnovers in the past two victories after not creating a turnover in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

Previous meeting: The Falcons blanked the Giants at the Georgia Dome late in the 2012 season, 34-0 as one-point favorites. Atlanta held the ball for nearly 39 minutes as Matt Ryan tossed three touchdowns, snapping a four-game skid against New York dating back to 2006.

What to watch for: Since the 2012 season, the Giants own a 1-4-1 ATS record off a road victory, while winning six of their past seven home games against NFC South foes. The Falcons have cashed just three of their previous nine opportunities as a road underdog, but Atlanta has won five of its last seven road games coming off an away contest since 2010.

Texans at Cowboys (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- The Texans rebounded from an ugly Week 3 performance against the Giants, as Houston rallied past Buffalo last Sunday, 23-17 to improve to 3-1 on the season. After digging themselves a 10-0 hole, the Texans scored a touchdown to get within three, but the monster momentum swing came on a J.J. Watt interception return for a touchdown to put Houston in front for good, while covering as three-point favorites.
-- The Cowboys won their third in a row, dismantling the Saints as home underdogs, 38-17. Dallas is averaging 32.6 points per game in its three victories, while DeMarco Murray ran all over the New Orleans defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns to give the Cowboys its first three-game winning streak since 2012.

Previous meeting: Dallas took care of Houston, 27-13 as 2 ½-point road underdogs in Week 3 of the 2010 season. Tony Romo hooked up with Roy Williams for a pair of touchdown strikes, as the Cowboys own a 2-1 record against their cross-state rivals since Houston entered the league in 2002.

What to watch for: The Cowboys are in the home favorite role for the first time this season, but it hasn’t been a bettor-friendly situation. Dallas has compiled a dreadful 6-19 ATS record as a home favorite since 2010, including a 1-5 ATS mark against AFC opponents in this span. The Texans have cashed all three games in the favorite role this season, but is 0-1 in their lone underdog situation.

Cardinals at Broncos (-7 ½, 47 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Arizona is just one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL through four weeks, as the Cardinals rested in Week 4. The previous contest for the Cards prior to the bye came against the 49ers, as Arizona erased a 14-6 deficit in a 23-14 home triumph as three-point underdogs. Drew Stanton grabbed his second straight win as a starting quarterback, replacing the injured Carson Palmer.
-- Denver is also fresh off the bye week, trying to recover from an overtime loss at Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos put up a better performance than their February dud against the Seahawks, as Denver forced OT with a touchdown and two-point conversion late in regulation. However, Seattle scored a touchdown in the extra session to cover as four-point favorites, 26-20.

Previous meeting: The Cardinals are making their first trip to Denver since 2002, as Arizona picked up a convincing 43-14 rout of the Broncos in 2010. To show how much has changed with these teams since that matchup, Kyle Orton and John Skelton were the starting quarterbacks that Sunday, as the Cardinals scored 24 fourth quarter points to cash as four-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals have put together a solid 8-3 ATS record as an underdog, including an outright victory at Seattle last season. Entering this season, the Broncos were 21-9-1 ATS as a favorite since Peyton Manning took over at quarterback, but Denver has failed to cover in each ‘chalk’ opportunity this season against Indianapolis and Kansas City.

Chiefs at 49ers (-5 ½, 44) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 4 Recap:
-- Kansas City blasted New England last Monday night, 41-14 as three-point home underdogs to improve to 2-2. After the offense was non-existent in the first two losses, the Chiefs have exploded for 75 points in the past two weeks, while the defense has limited opponents to 29 points in two victories.
-- San Francisco allowed three non-offensive touchdowns to Philadelphia to fall behind, 21-10, but the 49ers rallied for a 26-21 home victory. The Niners barely cashed as 4 ½-point favorites, holding the Eagles out of the end zone on a goal-to-go situation late in the fourth quarter, while outgaining Philadelphia, 407-213.

Previous meeting: The Chiefs blew out the 49ers at Arrowhead Stadium in September 2010 by a 31-10 count as 2 ½-point underdogs. Since 1985, the home team has won all eight matchups, as the Chiefs are making their first visit to the Bay Area in 12 years.

What to watch for: San Francisco owns an 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games off a home win since the middle of the 2012 season, while being in this situation for the first time this season. Kansas City has cashed all three times as an underdog, while putting together a 9-2 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium under Andy Reid.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What the heck happened to the NFC South?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Considered by many to be one of the NFL’s premier divisions back in August, the NFC South has been a flaming train wreck of disappointment and unmet expectations through the first four weeks of the season.

Not one of the division’s four teams boasts a winning record as we approach the start of October, with all four currently listed at 20/1 or worse to win Super Bowl XLIX at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

To put that into perspective, the NFC West currently boasts three squads with Super Bowl odds of 20/1 or better.

But amidst the less-than-stellar start reside multiple patterns of predictability that sports bettors can utilize during their weekly handicapping sessions. And remember, while the NFC South may be a combined 6-10 SU and ATS so far in 2014, this same division was 6-9 both SU and ATS at the quarter pole last year.

New Orleans Saints (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

New year, same old story. The Saints are more than capable of handling the job when playing within the comfy confines of the Superdome, but this team is a sluggish nightmare when asked to hit the road. Currently 1-3 on the season, the Saints are 1-0 both SU and ATS in New Orleans, but 0-3 SU and ATS outside the city.

From 2010 through Week 4 of the current campaign, the Saints are now a rock solid 24-9 (.727) at home, yet an abysmal 12-23 (.342) on the road. Amazingly, head coach Sean Payton has yet to figure out a way to solve this issue.

This week: vs. Tampa Bay (-10)

Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

All sizzle, no steak. The Falcons love the indoor confines of the Georgia Dome, where they’ve been free to scorch a couple of the league’s worst defenses en route to a 2-0 SU and ATS record while recording a staggering 93 points and 1,056 total yards of offense.

But send Mike Smith’s crew outdoors and you’ll witness a stunning turnaround in both execution and production. Including the 2014 season, the Falcons are now 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS when playing outside.

This week: at New York Giants (+4)

Carolina Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Predicted by many to suffer a regression this season, the Panthers are well on their way to fulfilling those prophecies. After a 2-0 start which saw the defending NFC South champs dismantle Tampa Bay and Detroit, the Panthers have plummeted back to earth to rack up a total of just 29 points with three turnovers in back-to-back losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, respectively.

The problem for Carolina is that dual-threat quarterback Cam Newton has been unable to find success running the ball due to a preseason rib injury that has forced the coaching staff to shy away from calling the zone read plays that have been a staple of the Panthers’ offense since Newton arrived. Note that Carolina is 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when Newton carries the ball at least seven times in a game, but just 4-6 both SU and ATS during the same time period when the quarterback fails to hit that mark.

This week: vs. Chicago (-2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS

The Buccaneers have posted only one winning season over the last five years (2010) and are just 16-36 (.307) SU since 2011. So why would we ever consider backing this team when they’re posted as a favorite?

Going back to the start of the 2013 season, Tampa Bay is a respectable 9-5 against the number when assuming the role of the underdog, but a miserable 1-5 when listed as a favorite. If bad teams struggle to win football games, the chances of them both winning and covering as a favorite are slim to none. And judging by how the Buccaneers have so far handled the favorite role this season (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), it’s safe to say that slim just left town.

This week: at New Orleans (+10)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 5:

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 47.5)

Rams’ defensive line vs. Eagles’ poor protection

The Rams’ vaunted defensive line knows it has to pick up the slack if the team is going keep its head above water. St. Louis, which boasts a talented front four featuring the likes of Robert Quinn (19 sacks last season), has been slowed by injuries (Chris Long) and has produced just one sack on the season. At this point last season, St. Louis already has nine of its total 53 sacks on the board.

The Rams catch a break in Week 5 with Philadelphia marching out a make shift offensive line coming off a tough loss to the Niners last Sunday. The Eagles protection has been plagued by injuries, leaving Chip Kelly to lean on some untested linemen. Quarterback Nick Foles has taken some nasty licks through four weeks of football despite being sacked only six times. Philadelphia does get tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, but he’s nowhere near the shape the Eagles’ up-tempo offense demands.

San Francisco was able to claw its way back into Week 4’s game thanks to gumming up the works with its pressure and not giving the Eagles space to break plays or keep the chains moving on third downs - Philadelphia was just 5 for 13 on third down. If the Rams defensive line can find its form, Foles and the Eagles could be on their heels much of Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 47.5)

Ravens’ overrated run defense vs. Colts’ growing ground game

Baltimore currently sits with the seventh best run defense in the NFL, giving up only 82.5 yards on the ground per game. But digging into those defensive digits, we find that the Ravens may not be as tough against the run as advertised. They’ve played games against Cleveland and Carolina – two teams with issues in the run game – and then limited AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to short gains on the ground.

But did they? Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard rushed for just 48 yards versus Baltimore, but also caught six balls for an additional 62 yards in Week 1. Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell put up only 59 yards rushing versus the Ravens but tacked on another 48 yards on five receptions in Week 2. While those short passes are technically “passes” the yards after the catch might as well be coming off a toss.

Enter Indianapolis and a rushing attack that is quietly gaining momentum in the shadow of QB Andrew Luck and his massive production so far this year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is undergoing a renaissance in Indy, posting 316 total yards – 134 of those on receptions along with four receiving TDs. That puts him just behind top-tier targets Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown and Julius Thomas, who all have five touchdown catches. What’s more, fellow RB Trent Richardson is showing flashes of brilliance, keeping defense honest when it comes to defending Luck.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Cardinals passive pass rush vs. Broncos’ QB Peyton Manning

Arizona has had one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL for some time now. A big part of that is the breakneck speed the Cardinals stop unit plays at and its ability to quickly close in on rival quarterbacks.

Arizona still plays at an accelerated pace but there is a major gap in the defense when it comes to the pass rush. It has only three sacks on the year – second lowest in the league – and just put one of its top pass rushers on the shelf (John Abraham on IR with a concussion) before he could even see action.

The Cardinals depend on that pressure to hurry the passer and create opportunities for a playmaking secondary, but without it, foes have all the time in the world to look downfield. And time is not something you want to give to Peyton Manning.

Pressure has been key any time Manning and the Broncos have fallen. The Seahawks were able to sack Manning three times in Week 3’s OT winner over Denver, and got No. 18 on his heels for the majority of Super Bowl XLVIII, posting one sack and picking off two passes. In the three losses before that, Manning was sacked and intercepted at least once, including a four-sack performance from the Colts in Week 7.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Pick, 46)

Bengals’ third-down defense vs. Patriots’ third-down offense

Has time caught up with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? The Patriots, once known as an unstoppable offensive machine, has trickled out just 20 points per game like an old man standing at the urinal. New England was shutout for most of its embarrassing Monday loss to Kansas City before managing two scores in the second half.

The Patriots are having issues keeping the chains moving and no mad-scientist system of Belichick’s can get them going. They were 2 for 9 on third downs Monday (only had nine third-down chances!), touching the football for just 23:33. They picked up a mere 13 first downs Monday and are averaging only 17.5 through four weeks. New England has converted on 36.21 percent of its third down snaps heading into this Week 5 matchup.

The chain gang had better bring the WD-40 to get the rust of the yard markers in Cincinnati. The Bengals are holding opponents to a 31.71 percent success rate on third downs – second lowest in the NFL – and had the bye week to fine tune that stop unit and watch what worked for the Chiefs Monday. Cincy tops the league in points allowed, budging for an average of 11 per game so far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 5 line moves
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL

Week 5 of the NFL season sees the league's only two undefeated teams - the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 ATS) and the Arizona Cardinals (2-1 ATS) - return fully rested from their bye weeks.

A month into the campaign, the landscape of the league is starting to take shape. It's been a strange start to the season, as perennial locks for the playoffs are looking like anything but that, and teams that were written off by many heading into Week 1 are now making those doubters eat their words.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker , about betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where lines could end up before kickoff Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -11, Move: +10.5.

The Buccaneers pulled off the upset over Pittsburgh in Week 4, but are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against New Orleans. The Saints (1-3 SU) have been stuck in reverse so far this season, and haven't looked like the same team we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years.

"We opened the Saints as 11-point favorites and have bounced between that number and 10.5 (where we currently sit) all week," Stewart. "We have all Saints action in the form of 97 percent on the money and 76 percent on the side, with the 48.5 point total getting 77% of the action on the Over."

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -4, Move: -6.5.

Houston and Dallas were counted out by many at the beginning of the season, but both squads are heading into their Week 5 matchup with 3-1 SU records . The 'Boys were a lights out spread play last October, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in all four of their games during the month.

"We opened the Cowboys at -4 and moved it to -6 on Tuesday after taking some sharp action, and after another sharp bet came in we went to -6.5 yesterday," said Stewart. "Since moving to 6.5, we have seen some good two way action with 59 percent of the action on the Cowboys and the 47 point total getting 82 percent of support on the Over."

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos - Open: -8.5, Move: -8.

Arizona (3-0 SU) faces a tough test Sunday on the road against Peyton Manning's crew. The Cards were the forgotten team in the deep NFC West at the beginning of the year, but have turned some heads in the early going of the season. Backup quarterback Drew Stanton will make his third straight start under center for Arizona in place of the ailing Carson Palmer.

"We opened the Broncos at -8.5 and took some sharp action on the Cardinals at +8.5, which forced us to move that to Denver -7," said the bookmaker. "We then had the public back the Broncos, which drove the line back to -8 and is where we sit now. Fifty-three percent of the action is on the Broncos, while the Cards are getting 75 percent of the money to win outright."

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -4.5, Move: -5.5.

The Chiefs are riding a high after their 41-14 primetime beat down of the New England Patriots and invade Levi's Stadium for a date with the 49ers (2-2 SU). San Francisco eaked out a 26-21 win over Philadelphia in Week 4, bouncing back from consecutive tight losses to Chicago and Arizona, respectively.

"We opened the 49ers as 4.5-point favorites and immediately went to 49ers -6.5 after the overwhelming support from public, but with some sharp action, we went to our current number of -5.5," said Stewart. "The Chiefs are currently getting 65 percent of spread bets."

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots - Open: +2, Move: +1.

Andy Dalton and the Bengals (3-0 SU) have looked great out of the gate, putting up 80 points on the scoreboard while allowing only 33 - the best point differential in the league. The Pats (2-2 SU) have had plenty of issues through the first month of the campaign, and head coach Bill Belichick even had to field a question from a reporter last week regarding the starting status of his future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady.

"We opened the Bengals as 2-point road faves in this matchup and moved it from -2.5 and -1 all week before settling on the Bengals at -1," said Stewart. "Cincy is presently getting 70 percent of the action."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL roundup: HGH testing to begin Monday
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The NFL on Monday will begin testing players for human growth hormone, according to NFL.com.

The league and the NFLPA announced Sept. 19 that the two sides agreed to a new drug policy that includes HGH testing for the first time.

NFL.com obtained a letter written by NFLPA president Eric Winston to players.

"As you know, the new Performance Enhancing Substances Policy includes hGH testing," the letter read. "Testing for hGH will begin on Monday, October 6th. Each week of the season, 5 players on 8 teams will be tested. No testing will occur on game days. We negotiated to ensure that the methodology of testing be conducted in the most professional and safest manner for players. Importantly, after three years of negotiating, players won the right to challenge any aspect of the science behind the hGH isoforms test in an appeal of a positive test."

The letter also stated that any substance abuse or performance enhancing drug policy violations, including HGH, will be handled by an independent arbitrator.


---The Jacksonville Jaguars activated wide receiver Ace Sanders and right tackle Austin Pasztor to the 53-man roster Saturday.

Sanders finished serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. He took a leave of absence in July to get help.

Sanders is expected to play a prominent role in Jacksonville's pass offense with wide receivers Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts III out for Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.



---Larry Bironas, father of former kicker Rob Bironas of the Tennessee Titans, said his son knew better that to get behind the wheel while intoxicated, as he did when he was killed in a single-car accident on Sept. 20 in Nashville, Tenn.

Bironas, who lost control of his car while driving at a high rate of speed, had a blood-alcohol content of .218, more than 2.5 times the legal limit, according to a report obtained by The Tennessean.

"He drank too much and got in the car and it cost him his life," Larry Bironas, 68, said. "I don't condone drinking, and Rob knew that. ... Why it happened? Why had he been drinking so much that night? Why did he get behind the wheel? I don't know. We'll probably never know. At the same time I have to have faith and believe that someone has a better place for him.

"Rob's life served a purpose. He had a better 36 years than most people are going to see and he didn't take anybody with him, so I am thankful for that. The Lord took care of him as he saw to do it. But Rob knew better, he knew not to get in the car while drinking. It should have never happened."



---The New England Patriots promoted outside linebacker Ja'Gared Davis from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Davis has been a Patriots practice squad player for the better part of the last two seasons. He played one game last year.

To make room for Davis on the roster, the Patriots released wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 5 preview: Jets at Chargers
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego - TV: CBS

*TV announcers: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Evan Washburn

*Keys to the game: The Jets have been relatively balanced in their total play-calling -- 124 runs vs. 137 pass attempts -- and that number would be even close if they weren't playing from behind consistently. But offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg could stand to be more committed to the ground game from series to series. New York needs to control the tempo and put embattled QB Geno Smith in positive passing situations against a defense that enters the game fifth in the league allowing an average of just 15.8 points per game. Airing it out might prove difficult with top target Eric Decker (right leg) limping.

The Chargers have won three consecutive games largely on the play of QB Philip Rivers. The ground game is in tatters without injured RBs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, but Rivers has eschewed the constant vertical passes of the Norv Turner days in favor of a more controlled passing game that includes plenty of underneath targets to complement the meager ground attack. The Jets' 3-4 scheme has defenders attacking from all angles, and the key is to get to Rivers before he unleashes against a vastly overmatched secondary.

OFFICIAL FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

NEW YORK JETS

--Questionable: WR Eric Decker (hamstring), WR David Nelson (ankle)

--Probable: G Willie Colon (knee), T Breno Giacomini (back), DT Damon Harrison (ankle), RB Chris Johnson (ankle), C Nick Mangold (shoulder), CB Dee Milliner (quadricep), S Calvin Pryor (quadricep)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: LB Jeremiah Attaochu (hamstring), RB Ryan Mathews (knee), G Rich Ohrnberger (back), LB Manti Te'o (foot), LB Reggie Walker (ankle), CB Shareece Wright (knee)

--Questionable: LB Dwight Freeney (knee), TE David Johnson (shoulder), DT Corey Liuget (concussion)

--Probable: LB Donald Butler (shoulder), TE Ladarius Green (hamstring), LB Jarret Johnson (shoulder), LB Cordarro Law (ankle), CB Jason Verrett (hamstring)

*Matchup to watch – Jets interior defensive line vs. Chargers C Doug Legursky: Legursky is the third center the Chargers have turned to this season, and he was a clear vulnerability last week, including some snap miscommunications with Rivers. The Jets' defensive line is the clear strength of the team, including DT Sheldon Richardson and NT Damon Harrison.

*Player spotlight – Jets CB Dee Milliner: The second-year player has missed three of four games due to quad and ankle injuries, but is expected to play. The beleaguered secondary desperately needs a boost, with converted safety Antonio Allen and career backup Darrin Walls starting at cornerback.

*Fast facts: Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks with seven rushing TDs since 2013. ... Chargers TE Antonio Gates needs two receiving touchdowns to move past Isaac Bruce (91) for 10th place in NFL history.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

At least Smith won't hear the cat-calls for Michael Vick from the other side of the country. But the Chargers are averaging 31.5 points per game at home – a clip Smith can't keep pace with on his best day.

*Our pick: Chargers 30-23