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Best Bets - Week 8

Last week's Best Bets were back to the 1-1 split that plagued me to start the year, but the underdog Indianapolis Colts did win outright for those of you ballsy enough to bypass the points.

Week 8 features a shorter card thanks to numerous bye weeks throughout the league, but there is one game I believe you can't leave off the card.

Best Bet #1: Arizona/Carolina Over 47 (-110)

After watching that horrific 6-6 tie between Arizona and Seattle on SNF last week, it's not surprising to see the majority of bettors want nothing to do with an 'over' in this game. Current betting percentages at Vegas Insider.com show that over 85% of the bets on this total have come in on the 'under' so far for this game.

Look I get it, it's a NFC Championship game rematch that could bring some added intensity, and Arizona's offense just looked atrocious on national television. But these two teams did combine for 64 points in that NFC Championship game and Carolina's defense has taken multiple steps backwards this year.

All those turnovers from Carson Palmer could turn into huge gains for the Cardinals this time around with Carolina's weak secondary, or they could still happen again because Palmer and the Cards are really struggling right now and lead to points for Carolina.

Either way, points will be scored.

If there ever was a “cure” for a struggling offense to get going, as tough as it sounds to the ears, maybe a game against the Panthers is exactly what they need. Carolina has allowed 40+ twice in their last three games, and while both of those did come on the road in dome stadiums (Atlanta, New Orleans), the Cardinals – when they are on – can threaten a 40-spot as well.

The Cardinals offense can really only go up after Sunday Night's performance, and with all the kicking issues they had, we might actually see Bruce Arians and his aggressive nature go for it even more on 4th down. That's a positive for bettors looking for points no matter what the result of the play.

Finally, for all of Arizona's offensive struggles, they have played better on the road this year. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in Arizona's last four away from home, and as an organization they are 36-16 O/U after scoring less than 15 points last time out.

Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 7-3 O/U run at home and have gone 'over' the total in 16 of their past 21 games against NFC opponents. The Panthers are also 6-1 O/U when coming off a loss and 6-1 O/U in their last seven against a losing team.

Both of these teams have clearly taken a step back from last year's great campaigns, but don't let last week's Arizona game sway you too much into thinking the rest of their games will be 20-17 type defensive battles.

Carolina still has a very good offense and with the majority of their struggles coming in the defensive secondary this year, Palmer and that Arizona offense should rebound nicely.
 
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Pick Six - Week 8
By Kevin Rogers

Week 7 Record: 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS
Overall Record: 21-21 SU, 17-24-1 ATS

Review: Following a few poor weeks, we got back on track by cashing in four of six games. Washington couldn't hold onto a late lead in Detroit, while Kansas City pushed against New Orleans at home.

Seahawks (-2 ½, 48) at Saints – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 4-1-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Seahawks failed to reach the end zone for the second time this season in a road divisional game, but didn’t lose at Arizona. Seattle finished in a 6-6 tie with the rival Cardinals, but Arizona outgained Pete Carroll’s squad 443-257. The Seahawks had their three-game winning streak snapped, as Seattle has lost only once this season as it shoots for its second road victory. Russell Wilson has never played at the Superdome, as Seattle is making its first trip to New Orleans since 2010 when the Seahawks lost, 34-19 as 11-point underdogs.

New Orleans
Record: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 165/1

The best underdog team in the NFL resides in the Big Easy as the Saints own a perfect 4-0 ATS mark when receiving points this season. New Orleans cashed as seven-point ‘dogs in a 27-21 setback at Kansas City last week, as Drew Brees threw a late touchdown pass to get the Saints within the number. Since losing the first two games in the home favorite role to the Raiders and Falcons, New Orleans is going for its second consecutive home victory after knocking off Carolina as 2 ½-point underdogs in Week 6. The Saints will be searching for their first win over the Seahawks since 2010, as New Orleans has dropped the last three matchups, including two in the postseason.

Best Bet: Seattle -2 ½

Patriots (-6 ½, 47) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/5

The last time the Patriots and Bills hooked up in Week 4 at Gillette Stadium, Buffalo blanked New England, 16-0 as 3 ½-point underdogs. That was the last (and only) loss suffered by New England and the last time the Patriots played without Tom Brady, who was wrapping up his four-game suspension. Since Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5, the Patriots are 3-0 SU/ATS and the three-time Super Bowl champion has thrown for 1,004 yards and eight touchdowns. New England allowed 45 points the first two weeks of the season, but has given up only 62 points in the past five games (4-1).

Buffalo
Record: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1
The Bills began the season with consecutive losses to the Ravens and Jets (who are a combined 7-9), but won four straight games, including three victories over NFC West opponents. Buffalo squandered a 17-6 lead in last Sunday’s 28-25 setback at Miami to fall to 1-2 inside the AFC East, as the Bills were outrushed, 256-67. Running back LeSean McCoy racked up only 11 yards on seven carries, but suffered a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out against New England. The Bills have dropped 11 of the past 12 home matchups with the Patriots since 2004, while allowing New England to score at least 31 points in five of the past six meetings at New Era Field.

Raiders at Buccaneers (PK, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 32/1

The Raiders remained in the Sunshine State after cruising past the Jaguars last Sunday, 33-16 as short underdogs. Oakland improved to 4-0 away from the Black Hole as running back Latavius Murray returned to the lineup and scored two touchdowns. The Raiders have won six of their last seven road games since last Thanksgiving, but own a 1-2 SU/ATS record in their past three away interconference contests. In four games with a total of 47 ½ or higher, the Raiders have gone OVER the total in each of those contests, while sailing OVER in three of four road games this season.

Tampa Bay
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 165/1

If the Falcons lose and the Buccaneers win on Sunday, Tampa Bay moves into first place in the NFC South at 4-3. Atlanta and Tampa Bay meet up on Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium, but the Bucs need to take care of their second straight Bay Area team on Sunday. Tampa Bay rallied past San Francisco last Sunday, 34-17 as the Bucs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense. The Bucs haven’t performed well at home this season by losing to the Rams and Broncos, while posting a 3-7 SU/ATS record at Raymond James since the start of 2015.

Best Bet: Oakland PK

Cardinals at Panthers (-3, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The last time the Cardinals visited Bank of America Stadium in January, Arizona was blasted by Carolina in the NFC championship, 49-15. The Panthers’ defense intercepted Carson Palmer four times as Arizona failed to make its second Super Bowl in franchise history. A season later, Arizona heads to Charlotte sitting at .500 after finishing in a 6-6 tie against rival Seattle last Sunday night. The Cardinals missed a chip-shot field goal in overtime to win, as Arizona failed to cash as 2 ½-point favorites. Arizona owns a 3-3 SU/ATS record in the Eastern Time Zone since last season, as the Cardinals were blasted at Buffalo back in Week 3.

Carolina

Record: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

The Panthers’ season isn’t over yet, but Carolina needs to go on a winning streak in order for a chance to defend their NFC title. Carolina has won only once with the lone victory coming against dreadful San Francisco in Week 2. The Panthers have lost to the Broncos, Vikings, and Falcons in the favorite role, as Carolina has already lost more games at Bank of America Stadium in the first six weeks than it did all of last season. Carolina hasn’t hosted Arizona in a regular season matchup since 2010 when the Panthers edged the Cardinals, 19-12 as 2 ½-point favorites.

Best Bet: Carolina -3

Chargers at Broncos (-4, 43 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego
Record: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Chargers have been the most entertaining watch in the NFL this season with their plethora of close finishes. San Diego erased a 27-10 deficit to shock Atlanta in overtime last week, 33-30 to cash outright as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Lightning Bolts have covered three straight, while six of their seven games have been decided by eight points or less. San Diego goes for the season sweep of Denver after knocking off the Broncos in Week 6 as three-point ‘dogs, 21-13. The Chargers have dropped three straight visits to Sports Authority Field with the last victory in the high altitude coming in 2013.

Denver
Record: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Broncos rebounded from consecutive losses to the Falcons and Chargers by pounding the Texans last Monday night, 27-9 as 8 ½-point home favorites. Denver rushed for 190 yards, led by C.J. Anderson’s 107 yards and one touchdown, but Anderson will miss Sunday’s action with a knee injury. The Broncos are also beat-up on the defensive end as linebackers Demarcus Ware and Brandon Marshall, along with cornerback Aqib Talib are all questionable. Denver is riding a four-game UNDER streak, while six of its last nine road games have finished UNDER the total.

Best Bet: San Diego +4

Packers at Falcons (-3, 52 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay

Record: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/1

The Packers are playing their first game away from Lambeau Field since Week 2 as Green Bay is fresh off a 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS homestand. After an embarrassing 30-16 home setback to Dallas in Week 6, the Packers rebounded with a 26-10 rout over the short-handed Bears last Thursday night as 7 ½-point favorites. Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers topped the 300-yard mark for the first time this season by torching Chicago for 326 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers have owned the Falcons recently by winning four straight meetings since the 2010 playoffs, including a pair of victories at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta
Record: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 6-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The fast start for the Falcons seems like a memory as Atlanta has dropped two straight since a 4-1 run to begin the season. Atlanta melted down in each of those defeats to Seattle and San Diego, leading by a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks and blowing a 17-point lead in an overtime setback to the Chargers. Following last week’s defeat to San Diego, the Falcons dropped to 1-10 ATS in the favorite role under Dan Quinn since the start of 2015. After finishing last season with nine consecutive UNDERS, the Falcons have sailed OVER the total in six of seven games.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3
 
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NFL Week 8 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

This Sunday’s NFL card is the lightest of the regular season, so the joke can be made that the league is taking it easy on its viewership. Oh, we’ll watch, but could use a pick-me-up through a few well-played, competitive games given what we’ve had to sit through of late. With one last game being played in London for 2016, we’re still going to be exposed to a marathon Sunday with 14 consecutive hours of pro football consumption available. Behave responsibly. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 8:

Sunday, Oct. 30

Cincinnati vs. Washington: Corner Josh Norman and TE Jordan Reed traveled with the ‘Skins overseas and are expected to pass through concussion protocol to take the field at Wembley. The biggest draw would be a Norman-A.J. Green matchup, the first meeting between the two. Green leads the NFL with 50 receptions and should get opportunities considering Washington struggles to stop the run and can’t really get away with selling out on coverage. Jeremy Hill ranks 15th in the league in rushing yards (439) and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry after last week’s monstrous 9-carry, 168-yard effort against Cleveland. Tyler Eifert (back/ankle) made his debut last week, so the Bengals offense is whole since tackle Andrew Whitworth has overcome his concussion issues. Cincinnati is hoping to win consecutive games for the first time this season in order to get back to .500, while the ‘Skins attempt to keep pace in the competitive NFC East. Reed, offensive linemen Trent Williams (knee) and Brandon Scherff (shoulder) and CBs Norman and Bashaud Breeland will all likely play, but RB Matt Jones has been ruled out. Rookie Robert Kelley is expected to get the bulk of the carries. Cincy has won three straight meetings against Washington, who hasn't won in this series since 1991.

New England at Buffalo: The last time the Patriots saw the Bills, rookie Jacoby Brissett was gutting it out through a thumb injury as Tom Brady sat the final of his four-game suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined by shoulder pain. Buffalo won 16-0. Now that Brady has won all three games since returning, putting up an average of 31.7 points per game, New England will look to avenge its lone loss and get over against a defense that shut it out for the first time since ’06. The Pats have beaten the Bills in eight of the last 10 and are 28-4 against them since Dec. 2000, so they’ll be looking to avoid the first sweep at the hands of their AFC East rival since 1999. Rex Ryan never swept Belichick while with the Jets, but did beat him twice in the same season after splitting the ’10 regular-season meetings before winning an AFC Divisional Playoff. You can count on both coaches pulling out all the stops to get this one, but Buffalo’s realistic hopes for an upset hinge on whether LeSean McCoy and Marcell Dareus make an impact as they try to overcome hamstring injuries. It's not certain they'll even play. Many key Bills missed practices this week, so New England is the healthier team in the rematch.

N.Y. Jets at Cleveland: QB Josh McCown will return to the Browns lineup after breaking his collarbone in Week 2, replacing Cody Kessler (concussion) after working with the starters most of the week. McCown threw for 260 yards and two scores and helped his team get out to a 20-2 lead against the Ravens, so he’s certainly capable of helping Cleveland avoid an 0-8 start. WR Terrelle Pryor and standout CB Joe Haden will play, so the Browns are as healthy as they've been in weeks. The Jets will have a major absence up front with center Nick Mangold (ankle) stuck in a walking boot and have tackle Ryan Clady dealing with a shoulder issue, so we’ll see how the offensive line holds up for the next phase of angry Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. the world. RBs Matt Forte (toe) and Bilal Powell (knee) are expected to suit up for New York, which has won three straight over the Browns, last losing in ’07.

Detroit at Houston: The Texans, at least for this week, are hoping that their horrendous play on the road is of no consequence as they look to move to 5-0 at NRG Stadium, taking an AFC South lead into their bye week. Brock Osweiler has had a miserable time in losses at New England, Minnesota and Denver, averaging 4.1 yards per pass and completing just 52.4 percent. He’s been more effective at home, but has still thrown six interceptions, which makes this matchup against a vulnerable Lions defense one Osweiler must perform well in. Top corner Darius Slay will miss this game with a hamstring injury suffered last week, but the Lions should have DT Haloti Ngata back up front. Offensively, they’ll keep Houston’s hands full with RB Theo Riddick and TE Eric Ebron both back from ankle injuries. Only Indianapolis and New Orleans have fewer picks than these two teams, so taking chances in the downfield passing game could be part of both game plans against banged up secondaries. Matthew Stafford has thrown 15 TD passes and just four INTs this season and is on a run of three straight games without being picked off, posting wins over Philly, Washington and L.A. while throwing for 716 yards and eight scores.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: The Chiefs have won 14 of their last 16 regular-season games, the best record in football during that stretch. By comparison, the Colts are 7-9. Although no one is running away with the AFC South, Indianapolis has a tough schedule ahead that features road games against Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland, so winning tough home dates are a must. There have been 48 or more combined points scored in every Colts game thus far, aided by 20 or more points scored in all but one fourth quarter they’ve been involved in. The Chiefs will have CB Phillip Gaines back after he missed last week’s win with a knee injury, so they’re among the league’s healthiest teams as they return to Indy for the first time since that memorable 45-44 loss in January of 2014 ended Andy Reid’s first season at the helm. The Colts are 6-1 against Kansas City since ’07.

Seattle at New Orleans: Coming off that 6-6 tie in Arizona, the Seahawks haven’t lost since that 9-3 Week 2 setback in L.A. on Sept. 19, finding ways to thrive despite Russell Wilson’s hampered state, injuries across the defense and a porous offensive line. Although they miss him terribly, they’ve also survived the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, who ended the last playoff run these Saints made the last time these teams squared off with two beast-mode TD runs in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. That was three seasons ago. New Orleans has gone 7-9 twice since and is back under .500 again, surrendering a league-worst 32.5 points per game. Drew Brees will likely face a Legion of Boom that will be missing safety Kam Chancellor for a second straight game, but Richard Sherman (leg) is expected to play after being hurt against the Cardinals. The Saints have injury concerns along the offensive line and throughout the defense, so it’s not surprising to see them in a home underdog role again.

Oakland at Tampa Bay: The Bucs rallied from a 14-0 deficit in San Francisco last week, shaking off a groggy start coming off their bye to head back cross-country with a 34-17 win. They’re in search of their first three-game winning streak since 2013 as they host a Raiders squad that was already in Florida when the Bucs left the Bay Area, having beaten Jacksonville and training in-state the rest of the week. Oakland is 5-2 for the first time since ’01, sharing the AFC West lead with Denver. The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 on the road, while Tampa is winless in two outings at Raymond James Stadium and are just 6-23 at home over the past four seasons. Jameis Winston was the Bucs’ grand prize for all of their suffering but has had an inconsistent second season. He’ll be looking to take advantage of a defense that has allowed more passing yards than any in the league, while counterpart Derek Carr hopes to continue a strong run that has seen him throw for a touchdown in every game while being picked off just three times. Dating back to Tampa’s 48-21 Super Bowl XXXVII win, all four meetings between these teams this century have featured at least 50 points.

Arizona at Carolina: Only the Browns, Bears and 49ers have a worse record than the Panthers, whose chances to rally in time to defend their NFC title this postseason are on life support. For them, the sky has truly fallen. It just feels like the same has happened to the Cardinals, whose kicking miscues cost them a chance to climb above .500 for the first time all season. As it is, Arizona hasn’t lost since Oct. 2, but are relying heavily on RB David Johnson because QB Carson Palmer hasn’t been able to get comfortable behind his offensive line. That presents an interesting dilemma for this game since the Norman-less Carolina secondary has been so vulnerable. Palmer, who threw four interceptions in a 49-15 loss during his last trip to Charlotte for the most recent NFC Championship, will get speedster John Brown (hamstring) back, but x-factor Michael Floyd is a game-time decision. The Cardinals would love to pick up such a significant road win entering their bye week, allowing them to regroup for the season’s second half feeling like they’re in good shape. Meanwhile, the Panthers come out of their off week looking to prove that their season isn’t over. This should be their Super Bowl. Can Cam Newton win this one? His team is healthier than it has been all season and has won the last two games in this series.

San Diego at Denver: These teams will square off for the second time this month. The Chargers held serve at home on the Thursday night that opened Week 6, pulling out a 21-13 upset. Trevor Siemian returned from a shoulder injury but struggled, leading the offense to just three points through three quarters as San Diego’s defensive line dominated to help snap Denver’s 15-game road winning streak against AFC West opponents. The victory saved the Chargers season and was followed by last week’s OT upset in Atlanta, so they’re looking to get back to .500 if they can pull off the first season sweep of the Broncos since ’10. Both teams harbor significant injury concerns on defense. The defending champs could be without LBs DeMarcus Ware and Brandon Marshall, DT Derek Wolfe and top corner Aqib Talib, who are all game-time decisions. San Diego safety Jahleel Addae, corner Brandon Flowers and LB Denzel Perryman, the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week will also be touch and go. The ‘under’ has prevailed in three of the last four games between these teams.

Green Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have to be a little spooked, looking to avoid a collapse for the second consecutive year. After a 6-1 start last season, they ended up 8-8. After upsetting the defending champs, Atlanta was 4-1, but has since dropped consecutive games and enter this one with its tandem of backs both hobbling. Tevin Coleman will miss the game due to a hamstring injury, while Devonta Freeman will play after overcoming a hip issue. The Packers own the league's top run defense, leading the NFL in fewest yards allowed, yards per carry and rushing TDs allowed. Receiver Randall Cobb and LB Clay Matthews are both questionable with hammy issues, while Packers corners Damarious Randall and Quinton Rollins are likely to miss a second straight. Green Bay is on the road for the first time since Sept. 18, so we’ll see how Aaron Rodgers handles this test and whether his offensive line will give him time to get comfortable on the road. The officiating crew assigned to this one leads the NFL in defensive pass interference calls, so count on deep balls to Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson being a part of this one. The Packers have won the last four matchups with Atlanta, scoring over 40 points in two of the victories.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Another ref-related note highlights the Sunday night clash, since lead official Jerome Boger’s crew has thrown over 20 penalty flags per game, tops in the NFL. We’ll see how that affects the league’s top offensive line, although you figure they would have the advantage at home. The Cowboys rank third in the NFL in rushing yards and first in touchdown runs, riding their offensive front to make life easier for rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Even though Tony Romo began practicing, he won’t be a part of this one, but his presence will indeed be felt in the shape of pressure for Prescott to perform. The Eagles defense uncharacteristically used heavy doses of blitzing to dominate previously unbeaten Minnesota last week, so we’ll see what Jim Schwartz has in store in his first game as defensive coordinator against this NFC East rival. Rookie Carson Wentz will get his first look at Dallas’ defense, which will have CBs Morris Claiborne and Orlando Scandrick available. DE DeMarcus Lawrence (shoulder) will be in the lineup too. Philadelphia’s offensive line is already without the suspended Lane Johnson, but will have future Hall of Famer Jason Peters (bicep) in the mix. Dez Bryant, who suffered a hairline fracture in his knee a few weeks back, is also expected to return.

Monday, Oct. 31

Minnesota at Chicago: After three straight nights in the spotlight hosting the World Series, the Windy City will be on center stage once more thanks to this Monday night game, and as with the goings-on in Wrigley, you need to be aware of what Mother Nature is up to before picking aside, particularly on the total. Wind gusts should affect this contest, which sees the Vikings looking to avoid consecutive losses after faltering against the Eagles. Mike Zimmer, who has only had one losing streak of two games since taking the Minnesota gig, called out his offensive line for awful play in Philadelphia and is counting on a better effort. Jerick McKinnon, who took over for Adrian Peterson and gives the Vikes offense a different look as an option QB, is questionable with an ankle injury, the same ailment afflicting key safety Andrew Sendejo. Jay Cutler (thumb) returns to the Bears lineup after missing a month of action and is 8-5 against Minnesota despite a three-game losing streak. He’s thrown 26 touchdowns, but has only beaten Zimmer once. He many have RB Jeremy Langford back from a significant ankle injury, so Chicago should have a decent combination in play with him and rookie Jordan Howard available, but that’s likely to depend on whether starters Jake Long and Josh Sitton are back up front. Both were brought on board to stabilize a shaky offensive line, a prerequisite for beating Minnesota.
 
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Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
By Micah Roberts

You might not see a better example of parity in the NFL than looking at the spreads for Week 8 action that features seven games hovering around the most key number of 3.

"The biggest number this week is the Patriots -6 at Buffalo," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said on Friday afternoon. "I had some extra time yesterday and added up all the point-spreads and came up with 39.5, which is the lowest number I can ever remember."

Six teams have byes this week, which helps lower the number, but you get the idea. The numbers are all tight, except for the one thorn in the side of all bookmakers so far this season -- the Patriots. The books have to elevate their true spread on the game to accommodate all the expected public action.

"We opened the Patriots -4 while the Bills were winning at Miami last week, but then they blew the lead late so we went with -5 and on Monday went to -6. This is already our most one-sided game of the week," Simbal said.

He knows the public money is just going to keep coming in, but also knows sharp money is there waiting to take +7 with the home team, so he and his team are reluctant to move too fast. The public loves the Patriots because they cash almost every week going 6-1 against the spread and 3-0 ATS behind quarterback Tom Brady. New England's only loss came in Week 4 at home to the Bills, 16-0, in the final game of Brady's four-game suspension.

Simbal says the big parlay he's going to have to beat down this week features the Patriots tied to the Seahawks, Jets and Vikings on Monday night. Minnesota has gone 5-1 ATS and are -4.5 at Chicago with Jay Cutler set to return. The Seahawks are -2.5 at New Orleans and have covered three of their last four. And then there's the Jets coming off a big win against the Ravens who are -2.5 at Cleveland, a play that is more about the public hating the Browns than liking the Jets.

But so far, CG Tech books have found some Browns takers and it's put Simbal in a bit of a dilemma.

"We'd like to remain at -3 for this game just because of all the public action, but we took a couple large bets on the Browns at +3.5 and +3 that forced us down," he said.

While he'd be happy to bank the sharp money on the 0-7 Browns if they fail to cover again, the bigger picture is the Jets covering along with the Patriots which will have a lingering risk effect with parlays.

"That Monday night game with Minnesota is already ugly with 10 times more action on them than the Bears. If the Patriots and Jets cover, it's going to look much uglier."

The Broncos lost at San Diego, 21-13, as three-point favorites in Week 6 action and they'll meet again this week where Denver opened as 6.5-point home favorites.

"So far, the biggest bet we've taken this week has been on the Chargers at +6.5, and then they also took +5," said Simbal noting that the action all came before Broncos RB C.J. Anderson was ruled out on Wednesday. The Broncos are now -4.5. San Diego has now covered three straight and three of four road games, including their first road win last week at Atlanta.

One of the better matchups of the week features Green Bay at Atlanta.

"We've been Falcons -3 all week and we've had great two-way action," said Simbal. "We're separated by only $2 between the two sides, really, that's it."

The silver ling for Simbal maneuvering around all those bookmaking traps with games hovering around 3 is that he's not worrying so much about teasers this week. The short numbers this week mean less attractive teasers.
 
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Monday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

The Chicago Bears are one of the flagship and most popular franchises in the NFL and they probably always will be. But I really wish the NFL would somehow allow ESPN's Monday Night Football to have flex scheduling like NBC's Sunday night does. I say this once a year and it probably won't happen.

At 1-6, the Bears don't belong in the national spotlight this week. It's the team's fourth prime-time game already but thankfully the last in 2016. Unfortunately for Chicago sports fans, this will be the last week they can be distracted by the Cubs. The Bears might not win as many games this season as the Cubs do simply in the Fall Classic. At this point, it really is better for the franchise to lose out and get a Top-3 draft pick -- Chicago figures to battle Cleveland and San Francisco for the No. 1 pick -- and finally land a quarterback. The Bears are on their bye next week and then I give them only two realistic chances to win the rest of the way, both at home: Week 12 vs. the Titans and Week 13 vs. the 49ers.

Minnesota (5-1) obviously has much bigger plans and that's the top seed in the NFC. Seattle's tie last week in Arizona actually could help the Vikings down the line, although a Seahawks loss would have been obviously better. The Vikings and Cowboys are the only 5-1 teams in the conference. Minnesota hosts Dallas in what could be a crucial game on Thursday, Dec. 1. I'm sure the Dec. 24 trip to Green Bay (4-2) also will be important. Every other game on the schedule is very winnable for the Vikings.

The Vikings are -200 to win the NFC North for a second straight season and +850 to win Super Bowl LI.

Vikings at Bears Betting Story Lines

Usually teams look better out of their bye week, but perhaps it came too early in the season for the Vikings. They were playing great football and the NFL's lone unbeaten entering Week 7 but laid a major egg in a 21-10 loss in Philadelphia. Every team has an off day, but there were a few warning signs. For one, the Minnesota offensive line has lost a couple of guys to injury and that group was overwhelmed by the Eagles. Sam Bradford was sacked a season-high six times and hit 12 more. Bradford had been great in his first four starts but looked like he did in most of his pre-Vikings days in the loss. He completed a season-low 58.5 percent and threw his first pick of the year. No quarterback likes to throw under pressure, but Bradford really has a problem with it. The Eagles were blitzing all game, so expect to see more of that vs. Minnesota.

The other offensive worry is the running game. It wasn't good before Adrian Peterson went down and hasn't been much better since. The Vikings had 93 yards on 27 carries against Philly and are last in the league in rushing yards (446) and yards per carry (ghastly 2.6). Pretty rare for a team with that little of a running game, even in this pass-happy era, to make the playoffs. The Vikings have no problems on defense. They allow 14.0 points and 279.5 yards per game, both first in the NFL. The Vikings have forced a league-best 16 turnovers this year and lead the NFL with a +11 turnover differential.

Thus, I don't expect much from a Chicago offense that ranks last in the league in scoring (15.9 ppg). And I never thought I would say this, but the Bears are worse off now that Jay Cutler is going to return from his thumb injury and that former backup Brian Hoyer might miss the rest of the season with a broken left forearm. Hoyer was injured in last Thursday's 26-10 loss in Green Bay. It's too bad as Hoyer had been playing great statistically, although it wasn't leading to a ton of points. The Bears scored exactly 14 points in each of Cutler's first two starts this season before he went down, losses in Houston and vs. Philadelphia. We will see Matt Barkley if Cutler leaves his game injured.

There is absolutely zero question in my mind this is the homestretch of Cutler's career in Chicago. The Bears owe him no guaranteed money after this season and cutting Cutler would cost just $2 million against the salary cap. Coach John Fox has said some things publicly that show he clearly isn't a huge fan of the guy. As good as that Vikings defense is, make sure to play Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in your fantasy league Monday. He has at least 95 receiving yards or a touchdown catch in his past six MNF games. Jeffery hasn't caught a TD yet this year.

Vikings at Bears Betting Odds and Trends

Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 40.5. On the moneyline, the Vikings are -245 and the Bears +205. On the alternate lines, the Vikes are -6 (-102) and -5 (-115). Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread (2-1 on road) and 2-4 "over/under" (1-2 on road). Chicago is 1-6 ATS (1-2 at home) and 3-4 O/U (1-2 at home).

The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in the past six vs. teams with a losing record. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven vs. the NFC North. But Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its past eight on Monday. The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 vs. teams with a winning record. They are 1-7 ATS in their past eight following a loss of at least 18 points. The under is 10-2 in the Vikes' past 12 vs. the NFC North. The under is 5-1 in the Bears' past six in the division. Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in the previous five.

Vikings at Bears Betting Prediction

The Bears had a five-game winning streak at home against Minnesota snapped last year when the Vikings swept the season series for the first time since 2007. The Week 15 game in Minneapolis was a blowout, while the Week 8 game in Chicago the Bears should have really won but blew it late and lost 23-20 on Blair Walsh's 36-yard field goal as time expired. Minnesota's three-game winning streak in the series is its longest since also taking three in a row from November 1999 to October 2000.

Chicago won't miss the injured Peterson at all as that guy has blistered the Bears in his career. But it won't matter this time. The talent gap between these teams is massive. Give the points, maybe go down to 5 just in case, and go under the total.
 
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Free NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I am not supposed to use the word "lock" in any of my prediction stories here at Doc's. And with good reason as there are no locks in sports betting or I'd be a multi-millionaire. But I'm promising you one thing regarding this week's Sunday Night Football game: it will not end in a 6-6 tie like last week's Seahawks-Cardinals matchup did.

It's another good matchup this Sunday with first place on the line in the NFC East as Philadelphia visits Dallas. The Cowboys (5-1) lead the Eagles (4-2) by a game with the Redskins and Giants (both 4-3) still in the mix. It's the only division where all four teams are above .500. Obviously Philly can only tie for first with a win but would own an early tiebreaker. The Eagles and Cowboys close the regular season against one another in the City of Brotherly Love.

But really the big story line here is the best matchup of the season between rookie quarterbacks: Eagles No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz and Cowboys fourth-rounder Dak Prescott. Dallas actually did work out Wentz and had some interest potentially with the No. 4 overall pick, but once the Eagles traded up with the Browns (who have used six QBs this season, by the way, when they could have simply chosen Wentz) for the No. 2 pick, there was no question that Philly was going to take Wentz.

Sportsbooks offer an Offensive Rookie of the Year prop this week and only guys from this game are on it: Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (-250) and Prescott (+220) and Wentz (+900).

Eagles at Cowboys Betting Story Lines

Dallas comes off its bye week. Elliott is the NFL leader in rushing through seven weeks by far at 117.2 yards per game. He has rushed for at least 130 yards in four straight outings, a first for an NFL rookie. At sportsbooks, that Elliott breaks the NFL rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards set by Eric Dickerson in 1983 with the Rams is -115, but it's also -115 that Elliott doesn't. The closest a rookie has come to breaking that mark was in 1999 when Edgerrin James had 1,553 yards for the Colts. If Elliott were to maintain his current average and play all 16 games, he would finish at 1,875. As good as he and that offensive line are, I don't see Elliott breaking the record. I do think he wins OROY.

Prescott, meanwhile, is the fifth-rated QB in the NFL (103.9) and is completing 68.7 percent of his passes with just one pick (both second in the NFL to the ridiculous Tom Brady). He also has rushed for three scores. Prescott will welcome back one of the NFL's top receivers this week in Dez Bryant. He had missed the previous three games with a leg injury. Bryant has been quiet with 11 catches for 150 yards and a TD in his three games, but there's no doubting his talent. If you are wondering, QB Tony Romo still hasn't been cleared to practice from his back injury. This always was the target week for him to play. But his job is gone now.

Wentz started really strong and was the OROY favorite for a while. He has come back to earth the past two games in completing 27-for-50 for 317 yards, one TD and two picks. Part of his struggles could be attributed to the Eagles losing right tackle Lane Johnson to a 10-game suspension two weeks ago following an unsuccessful appeal.

But the Eagles did end a two-game slide on Sunday with a 21-10 home win over previously unbeaten Minnesota. The Eagles defense, which has been stellar at home and somewhat iffy on the road, allowed 282 total yards, sacked former Philly starting quarterback Sam Bradford six times and forced four turnovers. The Eagles also returned a kickoff for a score a second week in a row. In Week 6 it was Wendell Smallwood. Last week it was Josh Huff. No other team has returned a kick for a TD this year, which seems amazing until you consider that most kickoffs are touchbacks these days. Philadelphia is only the fifth team since 1970 to have a kickoff-return TD by a different player in consecutive weeks.

Eagles at Cowboys Betting Odds and Trends

Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite (-110) with a total of 43.5. On the moneyline, the Cowboys are -225 and the Eagles +185. On the alternate lines, Dallas is -5 (-105) and -4 (-115). Philadelphia is 4-2 against the spread (1-2 on road) and 3-3 "over/under" (3-0 on road). Dallas is 5-1 ATS (2-1 at home) and 2-4 O/U (1-2 at home).

The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games after allowing 15 points or fewer in their previous game. The Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 after a bye week. They have covered four of their past 16 at home overall. Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in Philly's past seven on the road. It is 7-3 in the Cowboys' past 10 vs. the NFC East. The underdog is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Eagles at Cowboys Betting Prediction

The teams split last year. The Cowboys won 20-10 in Philly in Week 2 without an injured Bryant and the game Romo broke his collarbone for the first time. So really, that started the whole Prescott thing in motion. In Week 9 in Big D, the Eagles won 33-27 in overtime. Philly's Bradford had a good game as did DeMarco Murray, and of course both are with other teams now. Matt Cassel was the Cowboys QB. So basically take nothing from those results.

I actually don't think this will be that close. As noted above, the Eagles have been a largely different defensive team at home than on the road. Yes, they have won three straight at AT&T Stadium, but very different teams now. Give the points, go over the total.
 
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NFL Odds: Week 8 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

I would really like to go work for Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan in any capacity because that guy is incredibly loyal. I could show up to work dressed as a Little Bo Peep and drunk and he probably wouldn't fire me. Not that I would do either.

This is mentioned because I can't believe that he hasn't fired head coach Gus Bradley by this writing. The Jaguars looked absolutely horrific -- again -- in Thursday night's 36-22 loss in Tennessee. The Titans, who are improving but not exactly a Super Bowl contender, were up 27-0 at halftime and had 354 yards of offense, the most of any team in the first half of a game this season. Did I mention that Bradley is a defensive guy? The Jaguars had 60 yards of offense in the first half and nearly as many penalty yards (50).

Since the start of the 2014 season, the Titans are 3-0 at home against the Jaguars and 1-17 against everybody else. Yet Khan told the media that he's not firing Bradley even though that team has clearly given up on its head coach and Bradley's 41st loss in 54 games was arguably his ugliest. There is precedent for this with the franchise. Nearly four years ago, soon after a Jaguars road loss to the Titans, Khan fired GM Gene Smith. Two weeks later, Coach Mike Mularkey (now the Titans' head coach) was fired by new GM Dave Caldwell.

But it's starting to look like we might not have any head coaching firings during the season, as at this late point of the year it's almost not worth it. Jacksonville will be a fairly coveted job this offseason as there is a load of talent on the roster (and, hey, no state income taxes). The team simply needs new direction. I did recommend Tennessee -2.5 for that game here at Doc's, so I was happy with the result.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 8.

Chargers at Broncos (-4.5, 43.5): This opened with Denver at -6. The Broncos got some bad and really out-of-nowhere news this week when top tailback C.J. Anderson had knee surgery to determine whether he had a full or partial tear in the meniscus. An early report out of Denver is that it's a significant tear and that Anderson is done for the regular season. But then ESPN is saying he could miss four weeks only. This was a weird thing because a prominent NFL reporter tweeted this news, and Anderson tweeted simply: "False." Yet obviously it was true. Anderson comes off his best game of the season, carrying 16 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in Monday's blowout of Houston. The Broncos need a good running game to limit third-and-long for inexperienced QB Trevor Siemian, who isn't great throwing deep downfield. Rookie Devontae Booker takes over as the primary back. Denver looks to avoid a season sweep here as it lost in San Diego 21-13 on a Thursday in Week 6. The Chargers have not swept a season series against the Broncos since 2010.

Lions at Texans (-2,5. 45): Houston coach Bill O'Brien says he hasn't considered benching quarterback Brock Osweiler, but O'Brien might have to think about it his QB struggles here. Osweiler was almost historically bad on Monday. Osweiler finished 22-for-41 for 131 yards, without a touchdown or an interception. His 131 passing yards were the second-fewest in NFL history by a QB who attempted at least 40 passes. He didn't complete a pass at least 15 yards downfield. This is a recurring trend. Didn't the Texans sign this guy because of his big arm? Osweiler looks lost on the road but has been better at home, where Houston is unbeaten. Some mixed injury news for the Lions. Top cornerback Darius Slay is in question after missing the second half of last week's game vs. Washington with a hamstring injury. But running back Theo Riddick (ankle), tight end Eric Ebron (knee/ankle) and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (shoulder) all practiced this week and all should return from multiple-game absences.

Packers at Falcons (-3, 52.5): Atlanta opened at -2.5. This is the highest total on the board, to no surprise, inside the cozy Georgia Dome and featuring Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Ryan. The latter leads the league with 2,348 passing yards. With 406 yards against Green Bay, Ryan would surpass Philip Rivers (2,753 yards in 2015) for the second-most passing yards through eight games in NFL history. The record-holder is Peyton Manning with 2,919 in 2013 when he set the single-season yardage mark. Ryan will be missing one valuable weapon in running back Tevin Coleman, who has a hamstring injury. He has been a great complement to No. 1 Devonta Freeman, who did show up on the injury report but is expected to play. The Green Bay offense seemed to figure things out last Thursday vs. Chicago in basically using short passes as a substitute for a running game. Rodgers was 39 of 56 for 326 yards and three scores, setting a franchise mark for completions in a game. The Green Bay defense is missing its top three cornerbacks due to injury. I would definitely play Ryan in your fantasy league because the Packers are great at stopping the run.

Patriots at Bills (+5, 47): I touched on this Monday and there hasn't been any line movement yet, which surprises me in all honesty. I want to update the situation regarding Bills running back LeSean McCoy. He hasn't practiced this week as of Friday due to his hamstring injury, so you can pretty much rule him out. Mike Gillislee will be the starter. He is listed on the injury report because of a foot injury, but Coach Rex Ryan believes his top backup "will be fine." Sportsbooks also offer a prop on whether Tom Brady throws a pick this week, with "no" at -150 and "yes" at +110. Amazingly, the Patriots have used three quarterbacks this year and not thrown a single interception. New England is just the third team in modern NFL history to begin a season with seven interception-free games. The 1960 Browns hold the modern mark as they made it to Week 11 without one, but obviously teams passed much less back then. The Bills have six picks on the year. I always recommend yes on interception props like this because one tipped pass or Hail Mary can result in one.
 
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Gridiron Angles - Week 8
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS since Dec 18, 2011 as a home dog.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-13-1 ATS since Oct 23, 2011 after they had a turnover margin of less than +2 or better last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Packers are 0-7 OU since Jan 11, 2015 after a game where Randall Cobb had a touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Raiders are 14-0-1 OU since Oct 03, 2010 as a dog after a road game where they covered.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-12 OU since Dec 05, 2010 off a game as a dog where they scored at least 30 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-16 ATS on grass of a road game when their opponent has forced fewer than 4.2 punts per game season-to-date.
 
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 8 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

OK, I'm now at the point where I actually feel sorry for New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith. Some guys just have bad luck. Smith was such a good player at West Virginia and I thought he might be a good pro some day. He just happened to land with about the worst possible franchise for a quarterback east of Cleveland. And now Smith's Jets career is probably over and perhaps his NFL one.

You may remember that Smith was the projected Jets starter in training camp last year but a former teammate sucker-punched him over a supposed debt of $600 or so. That led to Smith missing the start of the season and Ryan Fitzpatrick stealing the job by playing really well in his place. But Smith finally got another shot in Week 7 against the Ravens with Fitzpatrick the worst QB in the NFL this year, and Smith probably would have been given a chance to start several games in a row with the Jets' season basically already over and young kids Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg not ready yet.

Sadly, Smith tore his ACL in the second quarter against Baltimore so his season is obviously over. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown before exiting. Jets legend Joe Namath tweeted this during the game, which looks pretty bad now: "If you've got a right knee injury keeping you out of the game why are you standing on the sideline the entire 2nd half? How bad can it be?"

So it's back to Fitzpatrick, who probably won himself no fans in the front office when he said this about being benched: "When the owner stops believing in you, and the GM stops believing in you and the coaches stop believing in you, sometimes all you have is yourself."

I mean, does he not realize how bad he was playing? Talk about being entitled! The Jets are in Cleveland this week and it might be the Browns' best chance to avoid a 0-16 record. Who will they start at QB? Rookie Cody Kessler left Sunday's loss to Cincinnati with a concussion, meaning fellow rookie Kevin Hogan became the sixth QB to take snaps this year. Hogan might have to start this one if Kessler isn't cleared. Browns coach Hue Jackson said Josh McCown (collarbone) has "a chance" to return this week.

By the way, Fitzpatrick has won four games in a row when facing the Browns, including last season's opener. He has the same 4-1 record against them that Tom Brady does. The last time a Fitzpatrick-quarterbacked team lost to the Browns was 2008. The Jets opened at -2.5, but that line surely will grow if it's Hogan.

Here are some Week 8 early lines that caught my eye. I won't touch on Thursday's game (Jaguars-Titans), the marquee Sunday matchup (Eagles-Cowboys) or the Monday night game (Vikings-Bears) as I will be previewing them here individually. Los Angeles, Miami, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Baltimore are the teams off this week.

Redskins at Bengals (-3, 47): So Cincinnati doesn't have a road game west of Dallas this season. But the Bengals head to London for this game. It's the last game overseas this season and another 9:30 a.m. start. The NFL isn't going to stop playing these London games because Roger Goodell wants a team over there full time eventually. But, man, they are usually ugly. Much like the Thursday night games. Washington is expecting back tight end Jordan Reed this week. He has missed the past two with a concussion. Left tackle Trent Williams is in doubt after suffering a left knee injury in Sunday's loss to Detroit, but an MRI revealed no structural damage. Cornerbacks Josh Norman (concussion) and Bashaud Breeland (ankle) were also hurt vs. the Lions. This is Redskins coach Jay Gruden's first regular-season game against Cincinnati, where he was the team's offensive coordinator before being hired away following the 2013 season. The pick: Bengals and "under."

Patriots at Bills (+6, 47.5): Buffalo may have jeopardized its season by allowing top running back LeSean McCoy to play in Sunday's loss in Miami. I say that because he wasn't supposed to due to a hamstring injury but did and was ineffective before leaving early due to the injury. So now maybe instead of missing one game he might miss several. The Bills really need him because they can't count on QB Tyrod Taylor at crunch time. Sunday was the sixth straight time the Bills have been behind by seven or tied in a fourth quarter and lost with Taylor at quarterback. Had Buffalo hung on to that lead, this game would have been for the division lead. The Patriots took apart a Steelers team without Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday. They will be looking for payback here after losing 16-0 at home to the Bills in Week 4, but that was with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I'm fairly shocked this line isn't higher. The pick: Patriots and under.

Cardinals at Panthers (-2.5, 48): Rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game in which the Panthers destroyed the visiting Cardinals by forcing six Carson Palmer turnovers (four picks, two fumbles). Carolina is the NFL's most disappointing team at 1-5 and probably has to go no worse than 9-1 the rest of the way to get back to the playoffs. The Panthers are off their bye week. I'm still shaking my head at how the Cardinals didn't win Sunday night's 6-6 tie vs. Seattle. Never seen a more entertaining game that didn't have a touchdown scored. If Arizona's special teams coordinator isn't fired on Monday he must be related to Coach Bruce Arians as the Cards totally dominated that game but had a field goal blocked, a late punt blocked and Chandler Catanzaro missed a bunny 24-yarder in overtime to win. They simply have to work out kickers this week. Remember, he also missed a potential winning field goal Week 1 vs. New England. The pick: Panthers and over.
 
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'Falcons host Packers'

The Atlanta Falcons have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but their defense needs to improve if they want to hold off the Green Bay Packers this Sunday (4:25 PM ET, FOX) at the Georgia Dome. At press time, Atlanta is holding steady as a 3-point favorite with a total of 53.*
*
The Falcons (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) are the only winning team in the NFC South heading into Week 8, powered by Pro Bowlers Matt Ryan at quarterback and Devonta Freeman at running back. Ryan leads the NFL with 2,348 passing yards at 14.2 yards per completion; Freeman has rushed for 4.8 yards a carry and already has 26 catches on the season. However, Atlanta is also second-worst in the league with 2,060 passing yards allowed, driving the OVER to a 6-1 record after seven games.

This is good news for Green Bay (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS), especially for QB Aaron Rodgers, who has struggled at times this year. The Packers are also pleased with how well WR Ty Montgomery filled in at running back last week for the injured Eddie Lacy and James Starks, picking up 60 yards on nine carries against the Chicago Bears.
 
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'Seething Patriots head to Buffalo'

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills October 30, 1:00 EST

Buffalo Bills tripped up in Miami this past week, upended 28-25 as 2.5 point road favorites face a huge challenge when they host a surly New England squad seething from a 16-0 spanking by Buffalo up in Foxboro. Current odds have the Patriots -6.5 road favorites but that could inch higher with Bills suffering a slew of injuries including RB LeSean McCoy who is not expected to suit up Sunday* (hamstring).

Division road favorites do not come without some risk. However, some teams just have another teams number and that is the case with New England when it comes to Buffalo. In Bill Belichick's era the Patriots are 28-5 vs Bills (19-12-2 ATS). The clincher, Patriots are 14-2 (11-4-1 ATS) in Bills back-yard and an awesome 11-1 straight-up last twelve trips into Buffalo with a sparkling 10-2 record against the betting line. Additionally, letting a team pick itself up is not in Patriots DNA, the squad has won-cashed four straight, six of seven, ten of thirteen vs a team off a loss its previous effort.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 30

WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI from London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Skins 8-3 last 11 reg.-season games on board. Also “over” 10-2 last 12 since late 2015. Cincy 2-6-1 last 9 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DETROIT at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 4-2 last six as dog and also “over” 8-5 last 13 since late 2015. Texans 3-0-1 vs. line at home, now 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 at NRG Stadium. Home team 6-0-1 vs. spread in Houston games this season!.
Tech Edge: Texans and alight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have now covered three in a row and are 11-3 last 14 as dog. Saints also “over” 9-2 last 11 at Superdome. Hawks only 6-7 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills beat Brady-less Pats back in Week Four. Rex Ryan 6-2-1 vs. line last nine vs. Belichick. Pats only 5-13 last 18 as visiting chalk.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team and Rex Ryan vs. Belichick trends.

NY JETS at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 2-6-2 last ten vs. line on road. Hue Jackson teams in Oakland (2011) and Cleveland “over” 11-3 last 14 games.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

OAKLAND at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 4-0 vs. line away TY and 10-2 vs. spread as visitor since Del Rio arrived LY. Oakland also “over” 16-8-1 since late 2014. Bucs only 2-7 vs. line at home since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
KC 6-2 vs. spread last 8 reg.-season away games (though only 1-2 TY), Chiefs also “under” 7-3 last 10 reg.-season games. Colts 8-0 as home dog since 2012! Indy also “over” 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “over,” based on Indy trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven dating to Super Bowl, 1-2 as home chalk TY. If Arians a dog note 13-6 mark in role during reg season since 2013. Big Red “over” 7-1 last 8 on road, Carolina “over” 13-7-1 reg. season since LY.
Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends..

SAN DIEGO at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts are 9-1-2 vs. line last 12 at Denver and SD 23-9-1 as road dog since 2012!
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Falcons 5-1 vs. line last six TY and are also “over” 6-1, the latter quite a departure from previous “totals” form (had been “under” 16-3 previous 19 entering season). Pack first road game since Sept. 18 (Week 2), but no covers first two away TY. Pack 6-10-1 vs. spread last 17 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Falcons and “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.


PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dallas 5-0-1 vs. line TY, “under” 10-4 last 14 since mid 2015. Road team has won outright last six in series. Cowboys 9-27 as home chalk since 2010.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and series trends.


Monday, Oct. 31

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bears on 2-9 spread skid, “over” 6-4-1 last 11. Vikes 19-4 last 23 vs. line!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.
 
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Week 8 NFL

Sunday Games

Redskins (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)— Jay Gruden was a Bengal assistant from 2011-13, so he knows Cincy QB Dalton well. Washington had 3-game win streak snapped in Detroit LW by TD with 0:16 left. Skins are 2-1 on road, with three games decided by total of 11 points- they’re 9-10 as road dogs under Gruden, 2-1 this year. Washington has only one takeaway (-4) in last three games. Bengals ran for 271 yards in rout of hapless Browns, ending 1-4 skid; Cincy is 29-17-2 in last 48 games where spread was 3 or less points, but 0-3 this year- they won last three games vs Redskins, all by 7 points; Washington is 1-3 in Queen City, with last visit in ’08, lone win in ’91. Five of Washington’s last six games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-3.

Packers (4-2) @ Falcons (4-3)— First road game in six weeks for Packers, who had three extra prep days after beating Bears last Thursday, but are 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Pack split its first two road games, beating Jags 27-23, losing by 3 at Minnesota. Green Bay is 5-10 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points- they won last four games vs Atlanta, winning last two 22-21/43-37. Pack won three of last four visits here, but last trip here was in 2011. Falcons lost 26-24/33-30 last two weeks, after a 4-1 start; they’re 1-2 at home this year- road team covered six of their seven games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-3 vs spread; NFC South favorites are 2-5. Six of seven Atlanta games went over total; last three Packer games stayed under.

Lions (4-3) @ Texans (4-3)— Detroit won its last three games, all at home; they’re 1-2 on road with only win 39-35 at Indy after they blew 21-3 lead. Lions are 9-12 in last 21 games as road dogs, 2-0 this year- they’re 10-9-1 under Caldwell in games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Detroit games, all of which were decided by 7 or less points. Home teams are 6-0-1 vs spread in Texans’ games this year; Houston is 3-0-1*as a home favorite, winning home games by 9-7-7-3 points. In Denver loss, Osweiler had 2nd-least passing yards of any QB in NFL history with 40+ attempts. Houston is 2-1 vs Detroit, winning 28-21 in only one played here, in ’08. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-3 vs spread; AFC South favorites are 4-5.

Seahawks (4-1-1) @ Saints (2-4)— Seattle lost 9-3 in LA, tied 6-6 in Arizona; they scored 25.5 pts/game in four wins (4-0 on artificial turf, too). Seahawks are 11-8 in last 19 game as a road favorite, 1-1 this year. Saints allow average of 32.5 pts/game; average total in their three home games (1-2) is 75.0. Since 2013, New Orleans is 3-0 as a home dog; they’re 8-11-2 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points. Five of NO’s six games were decided by 6 or less points. Home side won last four Seahawk-Saint games with Seattle winning last three, two of which were playoff games. Seattle is 2-3 here, with last visit six years ago. NFC West teams are 5-10 vs spread outside the division; NFC South underdogs are 6-2. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Patriots (6-1) @ Bills (4-3)— First rematch of season finds Pats in revenge mode after 16-0 home loss to Buffalo in Week 4, last week of Brady’s suspension. New England is 28-4 in last 32 series games, winning last four in Buffalo, scoring 38 pts/game. Patriots are 3-0 since Brady returned, scoring 12 TDs on 31 drives (31.7 pts/game)- they’re 2-0 as road favorites this year, after being 4-12 from 2013-15. New England is 6-1 vs spread in last seven pre-bye games. Buffalo had 4-game win streak snapped in Miami; Dolphins ran ball for 256 yards. Bills are 10-2 vs spread in last 12 games as a home underdog (3-1 with Ryan as coach), 1-0 this year. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in divisional games. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.

Jets (2-5) @ Browns (0-7)— Fitzpatrick came off bench LW to lead win over Ravens; Jets are 1-3 on road this year, allowing 38 ppg- they’re 12-8-1 in last 21 games as a road favorite. Cleveland is first team since ’76 Bucs (0-16) to use six QBs in first seven games; they signed D-III phenom Callahan off waivers from Saints this week. Browns played five of first seven games on road; they’re 14-16-1 in last 31 games as a home dog, 1-1 this year. Jets won last three series games by 6-11-21 points; they split last two visits here, with most recent visit 10 years ago. Gang Green whacked Browns 31-10 in Swamp LY, in game where QB McCown got KO’d early and Browns turned ball over five times (-4). AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-7. Last three Jet games stayed under total.

Raiders (5-2) @ Buccaneers (3-3)— Oakland spent week in Bradenton after win in Jacksonville; this is their fifth game already (out of 8) east of Mississippi. Raiders are 4-0 on road this year, but 1-2 as a road favorite the last 11 years- Raiders are 3-1 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points. Bucs gave up 32 pts/game in losing its two home games; they’re 7-20-1 in last 28 games as a home dog, 4-8 in last 12 games (2-0 this year) with spread of 3 or less. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers last two weeks, after being -9 in first four games. Oakland is 6-3 in series but lost to Bucs in Super Bowl 14 years ago- they split two meetings here, with last one in ’08. Average total in last four series games, 62.0. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 7-3 vs spread; NFC South home teams are 1-5.

Chiefs (4-2) @ Colts (3-4)— Indy is 13-2 in last 15 series games, with last one a 44-43 win over KC in a playoff game three years ago. Chiefs lost six of last seven visits to Indy. Colts are 2-1 at home, with pair of come-from-behind wins; they’re 8-0 as home dogs under Pagano, 17-13-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Chiefs are 9-2 as road favorites under Reid, 1-0 this year; they’re +9 in turnovers the last four games. KC is 14-7 under Reid in games with spread of 3 or less. AFC West teams are 11-7 vs spread outside their division; AFC South teams are 8-10. Over is 6-1 in Indy games; four of last five Chief games stayed under. In Colt games this year, the average second half total has been 31.6. KC averaged 9.3/8.9 yds/pass attempt in two games since their bye.

Chargers (3-4) @ Broncos (-6)— Second rematch of young season; Broncos lost 21-13 in San Diego two weeks ago, in Thursday game that coach Kubiak (migraines) missed. Denver is 9-2 in last 11 series games; Chargers lost last three visits here, by 7-14-7 points. Bolts rallied back from down 27-10 to win LW in Atlanta; San Diego is 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road- they are 16-7-1 as road dogs under McCoy. All four of their losses this year were by 4 or less points, or in OT. Denver is 3-1 at home this year, with wins by 1-14-18 points; short week for them after Monday night’s win. Broncos are 19-12-1 in last 32 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year.

Cardinals (3-3-1) @ Panthers (1-5)— Home side won last five Arizona-Carolina games; Redbirds lost last three visits here, by 7-11-34 points, including a 49-15 playoff loss. Arizona missed 28-yard FG in OT LW, had to settle for 6-6 home tie with Seattle. Cardinals are 15-4-1 under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 18-8 vs spread on road in Arians era. Carolina lost four of last five post-bye games; they’re 21-17 under Rivera in games with spread of 3 or less (0-3 this year). Panthers lost last four games, despite being favored in all four; they’re 17-8-2 vs spread in last 27 home games, 1-2 this year. Cardinals are 6-3 vs spread in last nine pre-bye games. NFC West teams are 5-10 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 5-6.


Eagles (4-2) @ Cowboys (5-1)— Dallas won/covered its last five games; did bye sap their momentum, like it did with Eagles/Vikings? Cowboys’ last four wins are all by 7+ points; they outscored last four foes 75-23 in first half. Dallas is 17-35 in last 52 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Eagles ran kick back for TDs in each of last two games, while offense scored only one TD in those games; Iggles survived sloppy games with Minnesota- both teams turned ball over four times. Eagles are 3-0 vs spread as an underdog this season Two rookie QB’s in spotlight on Sunday Night Football; home side lost last six series games. Philly won last three visits here, by 2-23-6ot points. Average total in last five series games, 48.8. NFL-wide, home favorites are 6-12-1 vs spread in divisional games this year.


Monday Night

Vikings (5-1) @ Bears (1-6)— Trap game for Minnesota coming off first loss of year; they’re 2-1 on road, with wins at Tennessee (25-16), Carolina (22-10). Vikings had only 7 points in four trips to red zone in Philly, a red flag; they’re 3-2 as road favorites under Zimmer, 1-1 this year. Chicago lost last three games by 6-1-16 points, losing last home game 17-16 to Jaguars when they led 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bears are 3-10 in last 13 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this season. Home side won seven of last eight Viking-Bear games, with Minnesota 5-2 in last seven. Vikings’ 23-20 win here LY was their first win in last eight visits to Windy City. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in divisional games. Under is 5-1 in Viking games, 4-2-1 in Chicago games.
 
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Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 30

WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI from London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Skins 8-3 last 11 reg.-season games on board. Also “over” 10-2 last 12 since late 2015. Cincy 2-6-1 last 9 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DETROIT at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions 4-2 last six as dog and also “over” 8-5 last 13 since late 2015. Texans 3-0-1 vs. line at home, now 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 at NRG Stadium. Home team 6-0-1 vs. spread in Houston games this season!.
Tech Edge: Texans and alight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have now covered three in a row and are 11-3 last 14 as dog. Saints also “over” 9-2 last 11 at Superdome. Hawks only 6-7 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills beat Brady-less Pats back in Week Four. Rex Ryan 6-2-1 vs. line last nine vs. Belichick. Pats only 5-13 last 18 as visiting chalk.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team and Rex Ryan vs. Belichick trends.

NY JETS at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 2-6-2 last ten vs. line on road. Hue Jackson teams in Oakland (2011) and Cleveland “over” 11-3 last 14 games.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

OAKLAND at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 4-0 vs. line away TY and 10-2 vs. spread as visitor since Del Rio arrived LY. Oakland also “over” 16-8-1 since late 2014. Bucs only 2-7 vs. line at home since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
KC 6-2 vs. spread last 8 reg.-season away games (though only 1-2 TY), Chiefs also “under” 7-3 last 10 reg.-season games. Colts 8-0 as home dog since 2012! Indy also “over” 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “over,” based on Indy trends.

ARIZONA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven dating to Super Bowl, 1-2 as home chalk TY. If Arians a dog note 13-6 mark in role during reg season since 2013. Big Red “over” 7-1 last 8 on road, Carolina “over” 13-7-1 reg. season since LY.
Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends..

SAN DIEGO at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts are 9-1-2 vs. line last 12 at Denver and SD 23-9-1 as road dog since 2012!
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Falcons 5-1 vs. line last six TY and are also “over” 6-1, the latter quite a departure from previous “totals” form (had been “under” 16-3 previous 19 entering season). Pack first road game since Sept. 18 (Week 2), but no covers first two away TY. Pack 6-10-1 vs. spread last 17 reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Falcons and “over,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.


PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Dallas 5-0-1 vs. line TY, “under” 10-4 last 14 since mid 2015. Road team has won outright last six in series. Cowboys 9-27 as home chalk since 2010.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and series trends.


Monday, Oct. 31

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Bears on 2-9 spread skid, “over” 6-4-1 last 11. Vikes 19-4 last 23 vs. line!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.
 
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At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

It is closing day at Belmont Park on Sunday, with the racing action shifting to Aqueduct next Friday, which is also the first of the two-day Breeders’ Cup from Santa Anita.

The training title at the fall championship meeting at Belmont Park will come down to the final day. Rudy Rodriguez leads all trainers with 30 wins, but Chad Brown is just one behind going into Sunday.

Rodriguez has won his 30 races from his 108 starters, hitting at a 28% clip. His horses have earned $1,828,748. He has horses running in the fourth, sixth and seventh races on the card.

Brown’s 29 winners have come from 115 starters, winning at a 25% rate at the meeting. His purses total $3,321,881, easily tops at the meeting.

Brown has horses in Sunday’s fourth and eighth races.

Todd Pletcher and David Jacobson are next in line with 13 winners each.

The jockey title at the meeting will also come down to the final day of the meeting, with Irad Ortiz. Jr. and Javier Castellano each with 47 winners going into Sunday’s card.

Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez and Luis Saez are tied for third in the jockey standings with 30 winners apiece.

The final stake of the meeting is the $100,000 Chelsey Flower for two-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf. A field of 12 along with two also-elgibles were entered.

Brown has a strong one-two punch with Beat the Benchmark, who was third in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine in her last outing and Create a Dream, who was fourth in the Miss Grillo (G3) in her U.S. debut.

With no racing in New York until Friday that gives me a couple of extra days to work on the Breeders’ Cup. My reports will be posted by Thursday morning.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000N3L (12:55 ET)
#2 Formal Summation 5-2
#1 Kenyan 5-1
#3 Two Weeks Off 9-5
#6 Steve's Image 5-1

Analysis: Formal Summation dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish seventh last out against $50,000 non-winners of three, a key race in which the top three all won next out, the winner Great Stuff beating Alw-2 optional claimers on Oct. 19. he drops into a softer spot here for his second start off the claim by the Englehart barn.

Kenyan was a good looking winner last out against $16,000 non-winners of two in his first start against winners. She broke his maiden two back against $25,000 state breds. He was claimed out of his win last out by the Jacobson barn that is 19% winners first off the claim. Castellano sticks and this gelding looks capable of moving forward off his last effort which puts him in the mix here and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Chelsey Flower (4:46 ET)
#8 Noble Ready 6-1
#4 Beat the Benchmark 3-1
#12 Create a Dream 7-2
#3 Warrior Hall 5-1

Analysis: Noble Ready prompted the early pace, grabbed the lead heading for home and could not hold off Coasted late in a runner up finish in the P.G. Johnson in her first start against winners. Coasted came back to run third in the Miss Grillo (G3) in her next outing on Oct. 2. The Clement trainee has shown improvement with each outing and is bred to be a nice one. She has three sis that have also won on turf with a pair of turf winners, top earner Zindaya ($441,240).

Beat the Benchmark was bumped coming out of the gate and finished up well getting bumped in the stretch in a third place finish in the Natalma (G1), beaten four lengths for the top spot. It was her first go against winners after breaking herb maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf at the Spa. She figures to move forward off that effort for the Brown barn that won this race last year.

Create a Dream is also sent out by the Brown. The filly as fourth in the Miss Grillo (G3) last out in her U.S. debut. She stumbled coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and finished evenly over yielding turf. She was only beaten a length when fourth behind Brave Anna in the Albany Stakes (G3) two back at Ascot. The outside draw is her main knock.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 3,4,8,12
TRI: 4,8 / 3,4,8,12 / 3,4,6,8,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 8 The Lure (4:00 PT)
#4 Twentytwentyvision 9-5
#5 Drummer 6-1
#2 A Red Tie Day 3-1
#3 Express Himself 12-1

Analysis: Twentytwentyvision was a game third last out in the John Henry (G2) and had he won that race this gelding would likely be waiting around for next Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). Instead he drops into an easier spot here and cuts back to a mile. He won the Rolling Green two back at Golden Gate Fields going 1 1/16 miles and was a decent third three back in the Shoemaker Mile (G1). He will be real tough in this spot as the chalk.

Drummer invades from Germany and lands with the Drysdale barn. The colt was a good second last out in a Group 3 going a mile and was third three back in Group 2 company back in July. He makes his U.S. debut with lasix added to the mix.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #8 E J’s Legacy 12-1
R4: #11 Untouch 8-1
R5: #4 Fusaichi Red 12-1
R6: #5 Tempter 8-1
R6: #9 Chenal 8-1
R7: #11 Excluded 10-1
R7: #3 Fearthefalcon 10-1
R9: #9 Celtic Serenade 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5200 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $8500.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 RAGING FINGERS 7/5
# 6 HIGH FLIER 7/2
# 4 STIR AND SERVE 9/2

All signs point to RAGING FINGERS for the choice. Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out. Earned a 77 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate effort here should get the triumph in this one. Should be in the hunt again here, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning figure. HIGH FLIER - This outing could very well be controlled by this horse. A single look at the avgerage TrackMaster speed fig will verify that. The 85 average class ranking may give this horse a distinct edge in the group. STIR AND SERVE - Look for Sheppard and this nice horse to end up in the winner's circle in this event. Superb in the money percentage for the trainer/horse pair. McClure is racking up the wins of late. Top notch win rate makes this harness racer our selection.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 4:55pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 91 Victorian Queen S.

Rating:

#2 RAGLAN ROAD (ML=5/1)
#5 SILVER PRINCESS (ML=3/1)
#1 BRAVE AUTUMN ROSE (ML=10/1)


RAGLAN ROAD - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a strong effort is a good signal. This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. SILVER PRINCESS - Filly's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. Don't often see a positive ROI like +53. This jock/handler tandem has done well together over the last year. BRAVE AUTUMN ROSE - The ROI when Dasilva and Day Phillips get together is good.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CONQUEST VIVI (ML=1/1), #6 PRINCESS MACY (ML=8/1),

CONQUEST VIVI - Can't play this favorite off the extended layoff. She's in all probability going to get cooked at the front. PRINCESS MACY - Difficult to put your dough on this early speedball. Too much zip in the race. The clash on September 3rd was versus maiden claimers. Pass on this one this time out versus the tougher group.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 RAGLAN ROAD to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,4,5,6] with [1,2,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #10 - Post: 6:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 SHEZAWAVE (ML=6/1)
#8 BALLYHOO MOON (ML=8/1)
#7 SWEET ABDICATION (ML=9/2)


SHEZAWAVE - The jockey/conditioner duo of Panici and Zavash has a strong return on investment together. BALLYHOO MOON - The October 1st race at Gulfstream Park was at a class level of (81). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so she should be in a good position to win. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. That indicates to me she will be very competitive in this turf race. This animal didn't run well on the soft turf in her last race at Gulfstream Park. You probably should toss that performance. SWEET ABDICATION - The jock and trainer combination have a lucrative return on investment when they join forces. This filly is in good form, having run a strong race on Oct 12th, finishing fourth. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from today's shorter trip. Just missed hitting the board on Oct 12th at Gulfstream Park West. With pretty good morning line odds in this event, she has my interest. This filly is clearly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 57, 60, 67 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 LATER (ML=5/1), #10 PACHAMANCA (ML=6/1), #5 LITTLE QUEEN (ML=8/1),

LATER - Not the best 'spot' in this race. PACHAMANCA - Earned a common speed figure in the last race in a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race on Oct 15th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. LITTLE QUEEN - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 SHEZAWAVE to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [7,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Skip
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$15000 - NW $15,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS AE: NW 7 EXT. PM RACES OR $70,000 LIFETIME STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW22500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 BETTORS GLASS 7/2
# 3 MOJO TERROR 4/1
# 4 BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT 15/1

BETTORS GLASS more than likely appears to be the fine animal to beat in this one. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, think about this one's chances. Has a strong shot in this event, if he can perform to his back class. Driver/trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this gelding breaking away from the group of horses. MOJO TERROR - Cannot put a finger on it, but strongly consider this gelding for a wager. BELIEVEINTHESPIRIT - Getting a good instinct about this gelding. Could surprise for this race.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Stakes - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 85

SPENDTHRIFT STALLION S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS, SIRED BY ANY SPENDTHRIFT OWNED STALLION THAT STOOD AT SPENDTHRIFT FARM IN KENTUCKY, OR ANY OTHER LOCATION, INCLUDING LOUISIANA, MARYLAND, NEW YORK OR CANADA FROM 2013 TO PRESENT.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 ALL RIGHT 6/1

# 9 HUNKA BURNING LOVE 12/1

# 7 SISTER NATION 20/1

ALL RIGHT looks to be a formidable contender. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved sharply to the front end recently. This colt has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone. With a +103 ROI, this jock and conditioner duo has produced very strong gains recently for wagerers. HUNKA BURNING LOVE - Solid returns over time for this jockey and trainer duo. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Maker have shown strong results lately. SISTER NATION - Blinkers off may be the difference maker here.
 

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