Sunday 10/25/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (473) PHILADELPHIA@ (474) CAROLINA | 2015-10-25 20:30:00 - 2015-10-25 20:30:00
Play ON PHILADELPHIA using money line when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 21 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+19.65 units)

NFL > (459) NY JETS@ (460) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line as a favorite of -160 to -475
The record is 19 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.2 units)

NFL > (467) NEW ORLEANS@ (468) INDIANAPOLIS | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in games played on turf
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.1 units)

NFL > (463) ATLANTA@ (464) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in home lined games
The record is 4 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.15 units)

NFL > (469) OAKLAND@ (470) SAN DIEGO | 2015-10-25 16:05:00 - 2015-10-25 16:05:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 37 Wins and 69 Losses for the since 1992 (-58.15 units)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY@ (466) WASHINGTON | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 58 Wins and 73 Losses for the since 1992 (-69.65 units)

NFL > (457) HOUSTON@ (458) MIAMI | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 6 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.2 units)

NFL > (455) PITTSBURGH@ (456) KANSAS CITY | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in October games
The record is 64 Wins and 26 Losses for the since 1992 (+33.85 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY@ (466) WASHINGTON | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON ?>in the first half after 2 or more consecutive losses
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TOTALS

NFL > (471) DALLAS@ (472) NY GIANTS | 2015-10-25 16:25:00 - 2015-10-25 16:25:00
Play UNDER NY GIANTS on the total against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)

NFL > (303) SEATTLE@ (304) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-22 20:25:00 - 2015-10-22 20:25:00
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total when playing on a Thursday
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the since 1992 (+8 units)

NFL > (463) ATLANTA@ (464) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play OVER ATLANTA on the total as a road favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 15 Overs and 3 Unders for the since 1992 (+11.7 units)

NFL > (473) PHILADELPHIA@ (474) CAROLINA | 2015-10-25 20:30:00 - 2015-10-25 20:30:00
Play UNDER PHILADELPHIA on the total when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 6 Overs and 21 Unders for the since 1992 (+14.4 units)

NFL > (461) MINNESOTA@ (462) DETROIT | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the total in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

BUFFALO BILLS (3-3) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Buffalo -5.5, Total: 42

Rex Ryan and his merry band of Bills head to London on Sunday morning to take on the slumping Jaguars.

The Bills (3-3 SU and ATS) are looking to get above .500 before their Week 8 bye, taking on the lowly Jaguars (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) in front of an international crowd at Wembley Stadium. Buffalo has alternated wins and losses so far this season, dropping last week’s game 34-21 at home against the surging Bengals. Curiously, the team has played better on the road (2-0 SU and ATS) than at Ralph Wilson Stadium (1-3 SU and ATS). Jacksonville, meanwhile, holds the inauspicious honor of having the worst record in the worst division of the NFL, entering Sunday riding a four-game SU losing skid (1-3 ATS).

Buffalo leads the all-time series between the teams 7-6 SU (8-5 ATS), most recently winning on the road in 2013 with then-rookie QB EJ Manuel at the helm. Manuel may once again be the Bills’ starter this Sunday, as QB Tyrod Taylor continues to recover from a knee injury he suffered in Week 5. The Bills have a few trends in their favor to cover the spread this weekend, as their opponent is 5-17 ATS in the first half of the season over the past three years, and 1-9 ATS off an Over in the past two seasons.

Injuries are hampering both teams going into Sunday’s matchup. QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (ankle), CB Leodis McKelvin (knee), RB Karlos Williams (concussion), WR Marcus Easley (shoulder), RB Cierre Wood (knee), and OT Seantrel Henderson (concussion) are all listed as questionable for Buffalo, while WR Percy Harvin (hip) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) are expected to miss the game.

Jacksonville isn’t faring much better, as WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), S James Sample (shoulder), RB T.J. Yeldon (groin), RB Bernard Pierce (concussion), TE Julius Thomas (ribs), DE Chris Clemons (back), and RB Corey Grant (groin) are questionable, and the Jags’ leading WR Allen Robinson (leg) is probable.

Buffalo’s offense has been uncharacteristically productive this season, though injuries have kept QB Tyrod Taylor, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Karlos Williams, WR Sammy Watkins, and WR Percy Harvin off the field for at least a game apiece. Newly-added TE Charles Clay is the only skill position player to start all six games for the Bills, and is the favorite target of the team’s quarterbacks, catching 31 passes for 324 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Backup QB EJ Manuel is 1-0 (SU and ATS) against the Jaguars, but has struggled on the road in his short career (3-5 SU and ATS). In spite of its injury woes and the team’s predilection for penalties (averaging 10 per game for a loss of 97 yards), Buffalo hangs 24.2 PPG (8th out of 32) and has been a top-10 rushing team in yards (752), touchdowns (8), and yards per attempt (4.4). On the other side of the ball, the Bills have been efficient against the run, limiting opponents to 87 YPG (4th out of 32) and three touchdowns (6th out of 32), but have found difficulty stopping their opponents through the air, surrendering 269 YPG (23rd out of 32) and 13 TD touchdowns (29th out of 32).

The most charitable way to describe Jacksonville this season is “balanced.” The team ranks 30th out of 32 for both points scored (18.8) and points allowed (29.3) per game. Under the stewardship of QB Blake Bortles (272 passing YPG, 6.7 YPA, 13 TD, 7 INT), and thanks to offensive weapons WR Allen Robinson and WR Allen Hurns, the Jags have racked up a respectable 258 passing YPG (12th out of 32) and 13 touchdowns (5th out of 32), though a sizeable amount of their production has come in garbage time. Jacksonville has had difficulty running the football all season (93 rushing YPG), and that will continue as long as top RB T.J. Yeldon is out.

In two seasons as a starter, Bortles has compiled a dismal 4-16 SU record (8-11 ATS), with Sunday’s matchup being his first look at Buffalo. The Jaguars defense has been ineffectual in 2015, failing to stop either the run (102 YPG) or the pass (264 YPG), and generating a league-worst three turnovers.

NEW YORK JETS (4-1) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -9, Total: 48

An unstoppable force meets an immovable object on Sunday as the ascendant Patriots receive a visit from the defensive-minded Jets.

Divisional rivals New York (4-1 SU and ATS) and New England (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) meet in Foxboro this Sunday in a battle for first place in the AFC East between the league’s best defense (NYJ) and offense (NE). The Jets, under new head coach Todd Bowles, have already matched last season’s win total, handily dispatching the Redskins 34-20 at home last week. The undefeated Patriots have scored 28+ points in all five wins, including knocking off their 2014 AFC Championship foe the Colts by a 34-27 score in Indianapolis on Sunday night.

New England holds a 30-18 SU advantage over its opponent since 1992, though New York is 24-22-2 ATS over the same period. In the past two seasons, the Jets are 4-0 ATS against the Pats, despite being just 1-3 in SU matchups. Though New England won both regular-season games against New York last year, it did so by just three combined points. Several compelling trends favor New England this week. The team is 8-1 ATS against excellent offensive teams (averaging 375+ YPG) and 7-0 ATS after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored over the past two seasons.

The Jets may be missing a few players Sunday, as WR Chris Owusu (knee), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), and DB Marcus Williams (hamstring) are all listed as questionable. The notoriously tight-lipped Patriots will be monitoring the health of several of their players this week, as RB LeGarrette Blount (undisclosed), C Ryan Wendall (illness), LB Dont’a Hightower (ribs), DL Trey Flowers (shoulder), and OT Marcus Cannon (toe) are questionable to play, while CB Tarell Brown (foot) has been added to the IR for the season.

New York’s offense has been surprisingly effective this season, after languishing at the bottom of the league the past three years. The Jets are averaging 25.8 PPG against their opponents (7th out of 32) and a league-leading 146 rushing YPG on the strength of RB Chris Ivory, who is on pace for the best season of his six-year career with 460 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and four touchdowns.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been hitting his targets 62.6% of the time, connecting most frequently with veteran WR Brandon Marshall (37 catches, 511 yards, 4 TD), an off-season acquisition from the Bears. He'll try to help Fitzpatrick overcome his career struggles against the Patriots, where he's posted a 1-6 SU record (3-3 ATS) and tossed 17 interceptions, with most of the games occurring during his tenure with the Bills.

Gang Green also boasts the league’s best defense, leading all teams in points allowed (15.0 PPG), yards allowed (269 YPG), and turnovers generated (15). The team has been particularly solid on the road, limiting opponents to 10.5 PPG and a scant 25:24 average time of possession.

With QB Tom Brady at the helm, New England’s offense is playing like a team possessed, handily dispatching each of its opponents in the first five weeks. Surrounded by an arsenal of offensive weapons both familiar (WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, and WR Danny Amendola) and new (RB Dion Lewis and TE Scott Chandler), Brady’s offense has averaged a league-best 36.6 PPG, with Brady completing 70.6% of his passes for 1,699 yards, 14 TD and only one interception. Brady has feasted on New York during his career, leading his team to a 19-6 SU record (13-11 ATS), though his opponents have been able to hold him and his team to a (relatively) low 25 PPG (6.1 PPG lower than Brady’s career average).

If the Patriots have any relative weaknesses, it’s their defense, which has allowed 356 YPG (17th out of 32) and nine touchdowns through the air (21st out of 32). Even so, the team has notched 19 sacks and hasn’t allowed an opposing rusher to reach the end zone since Week 2.

DALLAS COWBOYS (2-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.5, Total: 45

Two long-time rivals will try and seize control of an NFC East division struggling as a whole when the Cowboys and Giants square off at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. The match-up will be the 108th all-time between the two foes.

The Cowboys (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) enter the game looking for any way to end the three-game losing skid that has erased any momentum from their 2-0 start. Matt Cassel was announced as the team’s starting quarterback during their bye week, replacing the struggling Brandon Weeden, who, in his three starts replacing the injured Tony Romo, threw only 1 touchdown and 3 INT, averaging 200 YPG.

The Giants (3-3 SU and ATS) lost some of the momentum they had garnered during their three-game winning streak with an embarrassing 27-7 loss to the Eagles on Monday night, setting season lows for rushing yards (81) and passing yards (166). Dallas, which lost to the unbeaten Patriots at home 30-6 two weeks ago, has rebounded nicely from losses over the years. The team is 32-16 ATS after a loss of at least 14 points since 1992, and over that same time span, the club is 11-2 ATS in road games following a loss of at least 21 points. Bettors can also feel confident going with either Tom Coughlin or Jason Garrett. As Giants’ head coach, Coughlin is 29-15 ATS in October.

As for the Cowboys’ Garrett, he’s had remarkable success when the Cowboys are the underdog, posting a 22-11 ATS mark, including 16-7 as a road underdog. He’s also 11-3 when Dallas is an underdog within the range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Both teams have a handful of injuries to contend with on Sunday, as the Cowboys have three players with a questionable status in WR Brice Butler (hamstring), TE James Hanna (ankle) and DE Randy Gregory (ankle). For the Giants, WR Victor Cruz (calf) is questionable and OT Will Beatty (pectoral) is doubtful. On defense, starting CB Prince Amukamara (pectoral) is out 2-to-4 weeks, and DE Robert Ayers and LB Devon Kennard are both questionable with bad hamstrings.

New York got off to a hot start last week, scoring on its first drive of the game, and with QB Eli Manning completing his first 10 passes. But Big Blue struggled mightily after that, mustering just 167 total yards with Manning completing 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions, one of which was returned for an Eagles’ touchdown. But he has always played well in this rivalry game with 253 passing YPG, 46 TD and 23 INT in 23 starts. The Giants’ defense has been a mess they’ve been trying to sort out all season long.

On paper, their 6th-ranked rushing defense (93 YPG allowed) looks promising, but it’s how they’ve wound up there that should have fans and bettors worried, as they’ve allowed 139.5 YPG in the past two weeks, after just 69.8 YPG over the first four games of the season. In addition to the drop-off in regards to stopping the run, the Giants’ pass defense has been poor all season long, allowing 298.5 YPG, which is 3rd-worst in the league.

The silver lining for the Giants on Sunday is that they’ll be facing a quarterback in Matt Cassel who has not taken a meaningful snap in more than a month, leading a Cowboys’ passing attack that has had five straight games of decreasing passing yards since a 356-yard performance in Week 1 from Tony Romo. Dallas fell all the way to 164 passing yards against New England two weeks ago. Despite this and a running game that has 114 YPG on a subpar 3.7 YPC, the Cowboys do have a quality defense. Their run-stop unit is allowing 95.2 YPG (10th in the league), and should be good enough to neutralize the Giants’ atrocious ground game with 89.5 YPG (28th in NFL) on 3.6 YPC (T-29th in league).

But it will be the Dallas passing defense (254 YPG, 17th in the league) that will need to set the tone early: The Cowboys are 2-0 this year when allowing fewer than 220 passing yards, and 0-3 when allowing more than 220 through the air. Another big issue is turnovers, as Dallas has zero takeaways during its three-game losing skid.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bills' QB Taylor out Sunday vs. Jags

WATFORD, England (AP) Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor will not play in Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.

Bills coach Rex Ryan said Taylor has not recovered from his left knee injury and did not practice on Thursday.

''He still has some soreness in that knee. That means basically when you touch it and it's still sore, that it hasn't healed all the way,'' Ryan said. ''We're not going force this young man out there, put him out there, when he's really not 100 percent.''

With Taylor out, EJ Manuel will again start for the Bills (3-3). The backup quarterback is 6-9 as a starter, including a 34-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

Manuel will be making a second consecutive start for the first time since going 2-2 to open last season before being benched by former coach Doug Marrone and replaced by journeyman Kyle Orton.

''For me yesterday it was a 50-50 thing,'' Manuel said of his prospects of starting against the Jaguars (1-5) at Wembley. ''I wasn't too surprised.''

Taylor started the first five games of the season but sprained a ligament in his left knee in the 14-13 win over Tennessee on Oct. 11. He practiced on Wednesday and said his knee was getting better.

But Ryan said Thursday that the doctors looked at him after practice and determined he wasn't ready.

''We would have played him this week had it been healed, but it hasn't healed,'' said Ryan, who added that Taylor looked a bit off in practice on Wednesday. ''I noticed he was more arm. He wasn't stepping into his throws, especially early in the practice.''

The Bills have plenty of other injury worries, too, with Ryan saying defensive tackle Kyle Williams also won't play. Williams was carted off in the fourth quarter in last week's loss to Cincinnati with a left knee injury.

The Bills defense has been struggling and has so far failed to play up to its high-priced expectations, and the injury to Williams is a big problem for a team already missing starting safety Aaron Williams, who is out until at least December because of a neck injury.

Others who are injured and won't play include running back Karlos Williams (concussion), tackle Seantrel Henderson (concussion) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (ankle).

Receiver Percy Harvin also isn't expected to play. Harvin did not travel with the team to England after missing last week's game against Cincinnati. Although Harvin's been bothered by a hip injury, Ryan didn't go into specifics in saying the receiver is absent because of personal reasons.

Buffalo has missed the playoffs for 15 consecutive seasons - the NFL's longest active playoff drought. And over that stretch, they've had just two winning seasons, 9-7 finishes in 2004 and 2014.

Ryan was supposed to usher in a new era, but the Bills are 1-3 at home with three straight losses in Buffalo.

Playing another game without their starting quarterback isn't the best way to turn things around, but Ryan said he was happy with the way Manuel has been progressing after last week's loss.

''We threw the ball so much last week, some of that he reverted back a little bit, turning the ball instead of staying with his fundamentals,'' Ryan said. ''I think his accuracy has really improved. He had a great day today throwing the football.''

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Oakland

Last week, we had a huge play on the Chargers, and they took the 6-0 Packers to the final play before succumbing, 27-20. And that was the 2nd straight week that it came down to the final play for the Chargers, and they lost both games. I think it’s going to be hard for the Chargers to bounce back from those 2 losses. And I love going against teams that lost close games as big underdogs the previous week, as they generally suffer letdowns. Indeed, I have two systems which encapsulate that, and those angles have records of 99-64 and 73-44, and both apply to Oakland on Sunday. Also, it’s tough to lay points with a Chargers squad which is 1-6 ATS its last seven as a favorite, with its only win being a big comeback win against the 1-5 detroit lions in the first game of this season. San Diego is also 0-6 its last 6 vs. a division rival, and 6-14-1 ATS its last 21 as a favorite within the division. And it’s 8-19-1 ATS the past 4 seasons when the point spread is 4 points or less, including 1-9 ATS off an ATS win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POWER SPORTS

Cleveland/ St. Louis Under

Everybody raise your hand if you had the Browns being the league's top Over team through six weeks. No hands equals no surprise for me here as few would have pegged an offense this seemingly bereft of talent at the skill positions to be producing at its current level. But I still look for an Under here vs. the Rams.

St. Louis is coming off its bye week, which has to have them feeling good since teams off a bye are 6-0 ATS this season. That includes four favorites all covering the spread last week. But there is some concern for these Rams, most notably an offense that has scored 10 pts or less in three of its last four games. Since the Week 1 win over Seattle, this team is averaging just 12.5 PPG. I would not be surprised to see RB Todd Gurley have a big day against an awful Cleveland run defense, but big plays are few and far between for this offense, which is last in the league in total offense (309 YPG).

What's notable about Cleveland is that they have been getting off to very slow starts. Though they've averaged 27.7 PPG the L3 wks, almost all of that scoring has come in the second half (just 7.3 PPG in 1H!). Take away multiple defensive scores in last week's game (one from each side) vs. Denver and the Browns would have had their first Under of the season. As it was, only 20 total points had been scored in that game, heading into the fourth quarter. Simply put, I believe Cleveland's Over streak is due to come to an end. I'm not one who thinks Josh McCown is any kind of viable long-term solution at the QB position and this offense is due to regress. The Rams front seven should easily overwhelm the Browns' offensive line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

Take the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

The Patriots remarkable pointspread success has forced the betting markets to adjust. Even after getting backdoored with a late TD by the Colts last week; costing New England backers their wagers, the Pats still remain the single most ‘public’ team in the NFL. The defending Super Bowl champ has come out of the gate looking every bit as potent here in 2015. That has left sportsbooks no choice but to bump up the number to support New England week after week; a point or two of ‘Patriots tax’ that leaves at least a little bit of added value on the opposing side every week.
But before we anoint the Patriots as repeat champions, let’s note that they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record all year – the Steelers; on opening day, when Pittsburgh was missing several key pieces of their top flight skill position talent. The Pats failed to cover the spread in that game as well, and they were outgained by more than 100 yards.
New England in Week 7 may not be as good as New England in Week 1, thanks to a significant barrage of key injuries. The Pats special teams are always among the best in the league, but special teams captain Matthew Slater got carted off the field last week. New England’s offensive line that features three starters who weren’t starting offensive linemen in college has been besieged with key injuries as well. Guards Shaq Mason and Josh Kline are iffy at best to suit up on Sunday; bad news against the Jets powerful defensive front that just got Sheldon Richardson back in the lineup last week.
With a healthy Chris Ivory running the football; a healthy duo of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to catch the football and a surprisingly effective Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the football, this Jets offense is the best we’ve seen from New York in the last decade. Fitzpatrick has only taken two sacks all year and Ivory has rushed for 5.5 yards per carry, ranking behind only Todd Gurley among starting running backs. Meanwhile, the Jets defense looks nothing short of elite; tied with Denver for the best yards per play allowed in the league.
New York covered the spread in both meetings between these two teams last year, losing the two games by a combined total of three points. They covered the spread in both meetings with the Patriots in 2013, pulling an outright upset in one and losing the other by a field goal. I’m not expecting the first Todd Bowles – Bill Belichick matchup to be significantly different. Expect the Jets to hang around for the full 60 minutes. Take the New York Jets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Texans (+) over Dolphins

Is coaching that big a difference in the NFL that the Dolphins can respond to Dan Campbell in a way that fired coach Joe Philbin just doesn't comprehend. The answer is yes, but these guys are professionals and the rah-rah approach is a short window. Miami won on the road by their largest margin since 1980 and now they return home to the window dressing that is South Beach and the distractions return. Houston has once again found running back Arian Foster who since returning from his groin injury has run for over 100 yards in each of his last two games. The fact remains that the Dolphins are still last in the league with only seven sacks and that doesn't cut it. Take HOUSTON!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PURE LOCK

FREE NFL play Sunday 10-25-15
Houston +5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Houston Texans.

Edges - Texans: 9-2 ATS away off an away game; and 9-1 ATS after facing the Jaguars. Dolphins: 0-8 ATS as home favorites before BB away games when hosting a sub .500 opponent. With Texans QB Brian Hoyer a super sharp 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points in his NFL career, we recommend a 1* play on Houston. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Rams -6.5

I look for the Rams to return from their bye week with an easy win and cover at home against the Browns as a 6-point favorite in Week 7. St Louis has shown signs of turning the corner since adding in rookie Todd Gurley to the lineup. They went on the road and defeated the Cardinals 24-22 as a 7-point underdog in Week 4. While they lost at Green Bay 10-24 the following week as a 9-point dog, they should have covered the number. The Rams had numerous possessions late in that game inside Packers territory and came away with no points, including two Nick Foles interceptions inside the 10-yard line. The most telling stat was the fact that
St Louis outgained Green Bay 334-322 and had a 17-14 edge in first downs.
Gurley was a big part in their success against two of the NFC's elite teams in the Cardinals and Packers. He had 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona and 159 yards on 30 attempts against Green Bay. He's averaging 104.7 ypg (would be a lot more if you didn't count the 6 carries he had in his first start back against the Steelers when he wasn't really part of the offense) and a league-best 5.7 yards/carry among eligible running backs. Gurley's emergence is going to force opposing teams to stack the box, which should open up things for Foles in the passing game.
This couldn't be a better matchup for Gurley and the Rams, as the Browns come into this contest allowing a league-worst 149.8 ypg on the ground. Last week, Cleveland gave up 152 yards on 33 attempts (4.6 yards/carry) on the ground to a Denver team that came into that contest averaging just 72.0 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. Gurley should be even more familiar with the offense coming off the bye and it's not out of the question he rushes for more than 200 yards.
On the flip side of this, I look for St Louis defense to have no problem here shutting down a Browns offense that can't run the football (91.8 ypg, 25th). Cleveland's Josh McCown has had some nice games throwing the ball, but they have come against the likes of the Raiders, Chargers and Ravens. He only had 213 yards on 20 of 39 passing last week against the Broncos and his struggles had to do with Denver's ability to put a ton of pressure on him. The Rams have one of the most talented defensive lines in the league and will be able to feast on McCown with Cleveland consistently playing behind the chains.
I think the Rams are going to be one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, as long as Gurley and Foles stay healthy. The running game is going to provide the balance the offense has been lacking and will keep their defense fresh, allowing them to apply constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Browns on the other hand are headed no where and I could see them coming out flat off that crushing home loss to the Broncos. Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week and 11-2 ATS under head coach Jeff Fisher off a loss by 14 or more points. Take St Louis!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 43)

There were some rumblings that Roethlisberger could return for this game, but he's since been downgraded to doubtful. Without Big Ben in the lineup, I think there's some exceptional value here with the UNDER in this one. Kansas City's offense hasn't been producing and have lost their best weapon offensively in Jamaal Charles. They may also be without their best wide out in Jeremy Maclin, who is questionable with a concussion. Without those playmakers, the Chiefs don't figure to do much here offensively against an underrated Steelers defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in points allowed at 18.0 ppg. On the flip side, Kansas City's defense played well on the road last week against the Vikings and really shutdown AP. Landry Jones will start for the Steelers. I know he looked good in relief last week against the Cardinals, but that was at home and Arizona spent all week preparing for Vick and his scrambling. Arrowhead is not an easy place to play and I think Jones struggles with the noise and pressure that KC can put on the quarterback. Give me the UNDER 43!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7


Oakland @ San Diego

Game 469-470
October 25, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
126.015
San Diego
133.241
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 7
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-4); Over

Dallas @ NY Giants

Game 471-472
October 25, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.792
NY Giants
131.667
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 1
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Jacksonville

Game 451-452
October 25, 2015 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
127.445
Jacksonville
124.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+6); Under

Philadelphia @ Carolina

Game 473-474
October 25, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.116
Carolina
138.520
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Cleveland @ St. Louis

Game 453-454
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.591
St. Louis
135.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 9
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 5 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-5 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

Game 455-456
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.835
Kansas City
131.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

Houston @ Miami

Game 457-458
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.496
Miami
134.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Under

NY Jets @ New England

Game 459-460
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
136.999
New England
142.873
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
48
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+9); Over

Atlanta @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
131.446
Tennessee
129.321
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 461-462
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.763
Detroit
130.368
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Game 465-466
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
123.758
Washington
124.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Indianapolis

Game 467-468
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.480
Indianapolis
134.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 8 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-4 1/2); Over



Baltimore @ Arizona

Game 475-476
October 26, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.782
Arizona
137.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 10
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+10); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week7

Sunday's games

Bills (3-3) vs Jaguars (1-5) (@ London)-- This is third year in row Jaguars played a home game in London; they lost 42-10/31-17 here last two years. Buffalo won every other week so far; they gave up 14 or less points in all three wins, 24+ in all three losses, but struggled with Manuel at QB LW, in place of injured Taylor. Underdogs covered four of their five games that had a favorite. Bills are 7-6 in series, winning last two games by 16-7; Bills are 4-2 in last six visits here, winning 27-20 in last visit here, in '13. Jaguars lost their last four games; they are 4-7-1 in last 12 games as road underdog, allowing 35 ppg this year in road losses by 34-3-7 points- they allowed a defensive TD in last two games and three of six.

Browns (2-4) @ Rams (2-3)-- Cleveland's last three games were all decided by 3 points on last play of game, with Browns losing twice; they're 10-3 as underdogs with Pettine, 7-2-1 on road- they allowed 30+ points in all three road games so far. St Louis scored 24-34 in its two wins, 10 or less in three losses; Rams' two wins this year are by total of five points- they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight post-bye games- they were dogs in seven of them (1-0 as F); they're 5-6 as home favorites under Fisher (0-0 in '15). NFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread outside their division; NFC West teams are 7-9, 4-4 as favorites. Rams won three of four series games, with Browns splitting pair here, with last visit to Golden Arch in 2007.

Steelers (4-2) @ Chiefs (1-5)-- KC lost RB Charles, has QB who can't stretch field; they've lost last five games, 17-10 points in last two games- they're 0-2 at home, blowing both in last minute. Pitt won its last two games, scoring 24-25 points using backup QBs in both games; Jones gave offense balance LW in 25-13 win over Arizona (8-12/168 thru air)- they scored last five times (two TDs, three FGs) they had ball. Since '07, Steelers are 14-23-1 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. KC scored total of 34 points in losing last three series games; they kicked three FGs on four red zone drives in 20-12 loss at Heinz Field LY. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total. Since 2010, Chiefs are 10-5 vs spread as a home dog.

Texans (2-4) @ Dolphins (2-3)-- Miami got interim coach Campbell off to good start LW in Nashville, running ball for 180 yards after averaging 79.3 in first four games- defense had six sacks, four takeaways vs rookie QB. Dolphins lost last seven games vs Houston, with four of seven losses by 3 or less points. Texans won last three visits here by 1-7-10; they were +3 in turnovers last week, after being -8 in first five games. Miami lost its only home game 41-14 to Buffalo; since '07, they're 10-25 as home favorite. Since 2010, Houston is 10-13-1 as road underdog (1-2 this year). AFC South teams are 1-6 vs spread on road vs non-divisional foes. Last three Houston games, three of last four Miami games went over.

Jets (4-1) @ Patriots (5-0)-- NE won seven of last eight series games; five of last six were decided by 3 or less points; Jets lost last four visits here by 9-3-3-2 points. Three of five Patriot TD drives in LY's games were less than 50 yards; Jets were 14-29 on third down in the two games. Gang Green is 8-11-2 in last 21 games as road dog, but since '07, Jets are 12-5 as a divisional road dog. Last eight years, Patriots are 11-13 as home favorite vs AFC East foes. NE outscored last three opponents 62-23 in second half. Jets ran ball for 221-207 yards last two games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread, 0-8 in AFC. Three of last four Jet games stayed under; three of last four Patriot games went over.

Vikings (3-2) @ Lions (1-5)-- Minnesota is 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they ran ball for 199 yards in 26-16 (-2.5) home win over Lions back in Week 2 (Detroit dropped back to pass 54 times, ran it 16). Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-6-10-2. Lions got first win last week, in OT vs Bears; they allowed 76 points last two games, have given up 7.3+ ypa in each of last five games. Detroit is 1-4-1 in last six games as home underdog; Minnesota is 0-3 as road favorite the last 4+ years, 5-10 in NFC North road games last five seasons. Vikings are 14-6 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points; Lions are 3-9 in last 12 such games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine road games, with only win in OT at Tampa Bay last October.

Falcons (5-1) @ Titans (2-4)-- Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter in four of its five wins; its not like they've been dominant during 5-1 start. This is Falcons' second outdoor game, first on natural grass this season- they're 7-8-1 in last 16 games as road fave. Tennessee is playing 4th home game in row with a bye in between; they haven't been on road since Week 2, losing last four games, scoring 13-10 in last two games (two TDs on 21 drives). Titans are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a home dog. Four of five Titan games, three of last four Atlanta games went over total. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South teams are 4-9 outside division, 2-1 if a home dog. Titans won five of last six in this series; Falcons' only win at Oilers/titans came in Houston, in 1981

Buccaneers (2-3) @ Redskins (2-4)-- Tampa scored 26-38 points in its two wins, 15.3 in its three losses- they averaged 8+ ypa in both wins. Washington has injury problems on OL; they won last two home games- since '07, they're 10-19-1 as home favorite- this will be first time this year they're favored. Bucs lost three of last four post-bye games, but are 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as post-bye underdog. Tampa is 6-4 as road dogs under Smith, splitting pair of road games this year. Bucs won four of last six series games; eight of last nine in series were decided by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 vs sprea dout of division, 1-3 if favored; NFC South teams are 2-3 as road underdogs. Under is 3-0 in Washington home games this season.

Saints (2-4) @ Colts (3-3)-- Last three times Indy lost to Patriots in regular season, they covered spread next week. NO is 0-3 on road, allowing 32.3 ppg; all three games got over total. Last 8+ years, Saints are 9-16-2 as road dogs (1-2 in '15). Indy won three of last four games but lost two of three at home; they're 10-8-1 in last 19 games as home favorite, 0-2 so far this year. Saints had extra time to prep after upsetting Falcons last week; they won seven of last nine series games, winning 62-7 at home in '11; previous meeting was 31-17 NO win in Super Bowl two years before. Saints scored 26-31 points in their wins, 19.3 in losses. Three of last four Indy games went over. Colts may only be 3-3, but they're atop AFC South, which is the most important thing.

Raiders (2-3) @ Chargers (2-4)-- Oakland is 1-11 SU in last 12 post-bye games, but 3-0 vs spread in last three, all of which were decided by 3 points; Raiders lost seven of last eight vs San Diego, losing last three visits here by 3-13-7 points. Last four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points; since '11, they're 18-14 as road dogs, but 1-5 in last six AFC West road games. San Diego allowed 27.3 ppg in splitting last four games; they're 2-7 in last nine games as a divisional home favorite. Divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread NFL-wide this season. Chrgers allowed average of 145.4 rushing ypg over last five weeks; average second half total in a San Diego game this season is 27.7. Oakland's last two losses were by a total of eight points.

Cowboys (2-3) @ NJ Giants (3-3)-- Journeyman QB Cassel (34-38 as NFL starter, 0-0 as college starter) gets nod here in place of Weeden-- Cowboys lost his three starts, by 11-6-24 points. Dallas won last five games vs Giants with an average total of 49; they edged Big Blue 27-26 (-6.5) in Week 1, rallying from double digit deficit in 4th quarter, but that was with Romo at QB. Pokes won last four visits here by 13-7-3-3 points, covered last five as a post-bye underdog. Giants are 2-1 at home; they're 11-6 as home favorite (1-2 this year). Since '09, Dallas is 19-9 as road underdog (1-1 in '15); they won SU at Philly, lost in OT at Superdome in only '15 road games. Three of last four Cowboy games stayed under total.

Eagles (3-3) @ Panthers (5-0)-- Carolina stayed unbeaten with win at Seattle LW; they're 2-0 at home, winning 24-17/27-22- they were -2 in turnovers LW, after being +8 first four games. Panthers are 8-3-2 in last 13 games as home favorite. Eagles won three of last four after an 0-2 start; last 8+ years, they're 21-10 as road underdogs. Philly won four of last five series games; three of four Ws were by 22+ points; they led Panthers 31-7 at half LY in 45-21 (-6) Monday nite win, scoring on both defense/punt return, with a +5 TO ratio. Eagles were outscored 39-3 in first half of their losses; they have 41-21 edge in their wins. Carolina ran ball for 139.5 ypg in last four games; Eagles held three of last four opponents under 100 rushing yards.

Monday's game
Ravens (1-5) @ Cardinals (4-2)-- All six Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points; Ravens haven't forced turnover in last three games- they've scored 10+ points in 2nd half of all six games (outscored 81-50 in 1st half). Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both losses; they're 9-3-1 as home fave under Arians, 2-1 this year. Ravens are 5-9-1 in last 15 tilts as a road dog; they won last four series games; three of last five series games were decided by 3 points- this is their first visit here since '03, before Arizona was good. This is fourth time in six weeks Ravens are playing west of Rockies. Four of last five Raven games, five of six Arizona games went over total. AFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread out of its division; NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7

The last time the Eagles faced Cam Newton, he was pretty much playing on one foot. The Panthers' dual-threat QB looks to exploit the Philly defense on Sunday Night Football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 44)

Buccaneers’ slow starts vs. Redskins’ first-quarter defense

Having a rookie quarterback under center has its challenges. That’s something the Bucs have learned in the first chunk of NFL schedule.

That learning curve for Jameis Winston has been especially steep in the first quarter of games, with Tampa Bay failing to score a single touchdown in the opening 15 minutes all year. The Bucs are averaging only 1.8 points per first quarter – ranked fourth worst in the league.

The Redskins defense has come out hitting in the opening frame. Washington not only ranks ninth in first-quarter defense – giving up just 3.2 points per first quarter – but tops the league in first-half defense as well, allowing opponents to post an average of just 5.8 points in the opening 30 minutes.

This works well against Tampa Bay, which has actually been a much better second-quarter team, doing their bulk of the scoring in that frame (9.4 of total 22 ppg scored in second quarter).

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Washington D/ST, Fade – QB Jameis Winston


Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-6, 41.5)

Browns rushing defense vs. Rams’ RB Todd Gurley

Cleveland has been bullied on the ground by opponents this season, giving up almost 150 rushing yards per game on an average of five yards per carry. So basically, run two times versus the Browns and you’ve got yourself a first down.

Teams have gone for the throat when facing Cleveland’s soft stop unit, running the ball 44.69 percent of the time, including Denver’s depressing run game which turned out 152 yards on 32 runs in Week 6 after posting an average of only 77 rushing yards per game heading into that contest.

Gurley set the league on fire in Weeks 4 and 5, rumbling for 146 yards against Arizona and 159 yards versus Green Bay, before enjoying a bye week last Sunday. That’s given the rookie runner time to sharpen his skill set while also rest his surgically repaired knee, which kept him out of action for the first two games and limited him in Week 3.

Gurley is picking up 5.7 yards an attempt and, while he has yet to hit pay dirt, he faces a Browns defense that has been bowled over for six rushing scores this season – tied for fourth most. Cleveland has also been gashed for huge gains on the ground, watching 23 runs go for 10-plus yards, eight of which have gone 20 or more gains.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy – RB Todd Gurley, Fade – Cleveland D/ST


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 46.5)

Raiders’ big secondary vs. Chargers’ reliance on towering targets

Philip Rivers has been making it rain on opposing secondaries the past three weeks, averaging 396.3 yards through the air in that span including a monster 503-yard performance against the Packers last Sunday. A lot of that success has to do with his receivers making some tough catches in traffic, something the Bolts do well since they have one of the biggest receiving corps in the entire NFL.

Wideouts Keenan Allen (6-foot-2), Stevie Johnson (6-foot-2), Malcolm Floyd (6-foot-5), Jacoby Jones (6-foot-4), and Dontrelle Inman (6-foot-3) along with tight ends Antonio Gates (6-foot-4) and Ladarius Green (6-foot-6) can bully defenders and win most battles based on size and strength.

Oakland’s secondary doesn’t have much to be happy about this season, getting exploited for more than 299 passing yards per game – second most in the league. However, the Raiders have a bigger pass defense than most teams, especially when compared to the Bolts’ last three opponents – Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

The Silver & Black line up well against San Diego’s taller receivers, and have the aggressiveness to match to girth. Corner D.J. Haden is the smallest member if the Oakland secondary at 5-foot-11, but the rest of the regular crew runs 6-foot-1 and above. You can add Neiron Ball (6-foot-3) to that list, as the fleet-footed linebacker was used to cover tight ends versus the Broncos. The last time the Raiders faced Rivers, they checked him to just 193 yards (22 for 34) and a single touchdown in a 13-6 loss last November.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Raiders D/ST, Sell - WR Keenan Allen, TE Antonio Gates


Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 46)

Eagles’ defending dual-threat QBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

The last time Philadelphia faced Cam Newton, the quarterback wasn’t in a good place. He was basically playing on one foot and nursing a list of injuries that would rival Samuel L. Jackson’s “Mr.Glass” in Unbreakable. Newton was held to six yards rushing on two attempts (while passing for 306 yards, two touchdowns and three INTs) and sacked nine times.

You can take that boxscore and throw it in the trash, next to your copy of Unbreakable. Newton is healthy once again and mounting a one-man attack in Carolina, racking up 1,078 passing yards and 225 rushing yards with a combined 11 touchdowns on the year (8 passing, 3 rushing). Superman scrambled for 30 yards and a rushing TD versus Seattle last week and had 51 yards on the ground versus the Bucs the week before.

The Eagles are focusing their fire on shutting down Newton’s legs but haven’t had much practice. Philadelphia hasn’t faced a weapon like Cam this season, taking on a who’s-who of molasses-like QBs through six games. They’re most recent taste of a semi-mobile passer was practicing against Tim Tebow during training camp.

Going back to last season, Philadelphia has had a tough time containing (healthy) dual-threat quarterbacks. The Eagles allowed 48 yards and a touchdown to Seattle QB Russell Wilson in Week 14, 32 yards on three runs from Aaron Rodgers in Week 11, 30 yards on three carries from the Rams’ Austin Davis in Week 5, and 58 yards on seven runs from Colin Kaepernick in Week 4. Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and ATS in those games.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - QB Cam Newton, Sell - Eagles D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report on Sunday's games

ATLANTA FALCONS at TENNESSEE TITANS

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Probable: LB Justin Durant (elbow), WR Leonard Hankerson (ribs, hamstring), S William Moore (hand), C Mike Person (ankle), WR Eric Weems (knee), WR Roddy White (foot)

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: CB Perrish Cox (hamstring), WR Harry Douglas (ribs), QB Marcus Mariota (knee)

--Questionable: S Michael Griffin (knee), DT Sammie Lee Hill (knee)

--Probable: RB Dexter McCluster (illness), LB Avery Williamson (hamstring)

BUFFALO BILLS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: WR Marquise Goodwin (ribs), WR Percy Harvin (not injury related), T Seantrel Henderson (concussion), G John Miller (not injury related), QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (ankle), RB Karlos Williams (concussion), DT Kyle Williams (knee)

--Questionable: WR Marcus Easley (shoulder)

--Probable: CB Corey Graham (groin), RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: WR Marqise Lee (hamstring)

--Doubtful: S James Sample (shoulder)

--Questionable: TE Clay Harbor (abdomen), RB T.J. Yeldon (groin)

--Probable: DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), S Johnathan Cyprien (calf), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, thigh), DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee), T Jermey Parnell (shoulder), WR Allen Robinson (shin), TE Julius Thomas (chest, hand)

CLEVELAND BROWNS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: CB Joe Haden (concussion, finger), TE Rob Housler (hamstring)

--Doubtful: S Tashaun Gipson (ankle)

--Questionable: LB Tank Carder (shoulder), DE John Hughes (knee), WR Marlon Moore (hamstring), LB Craig Robertson (ankle), DT Danny Shelton (knee)

--Probable: TE Gary Barnidge (ankle), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow), LB Nate Orchard (groin)

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Out: DE Chris Long (knee), LB Alec Ogletree (ankle)

--Questionable: WR Tavon Austin (thigh), TE Lance Kendricks (hand), RB Tre Mason (ankle)

--Probable: CB Janoris Jenkins (concussion), DE Robert Quinn (knee)

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW YORK GIANTS

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Doubtful: WR Dez Bryant (foot)

--Questionable: TE James Hanna (ankle)

--Probable: WR Brice Butler (hamstring), DE Randy Gregory (ankle), DE Greg Hardy (illness), DE David Irving (back), S Danny McCray (not injury related)

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: CB Prince Amukamara (pectoral), WR Victor Cruz (calf)

--Questionable: WR Odell Beckham (hamstring), LB Jonathan Casillas (neck), CB Trumaine McBride (groin), CB Brandon McGee (back), LB Uani' Unga (neck)

--Probable: DE Robert Ayers (hamstring), LB Jon Beason (knee), DT Johnathan Hankins (calf), LB Devon Kennard (hamstring), WR Rueben Randle (hamstring), CB Trevin Wade (concussion)

HOUSTON TEXANS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: CB Kareem Jackson (ankle), LB Benardrick McKinney (concussion), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring)

--Questionable: G Brandon Brooks (toe), LB Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), S Quintin Demps (hamstring)

--Probable: G Oday Aboushi (toe), RB Alfred Blue (toe), T Duane Brown (hand), LB Brian Cushing (ankle), LB Akeem Dent (hamstring), RB Arian Foster (groin), RB Jonathan Grimes (hamstring), S Andre Hal (shin), C Ben Jones (toe), T Derek Newton (knee, toe), LB Brian Peters (hamstring), RB Chris Polk (knee), WR Nate Washington (hamstring)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Doubtful: CB Brice McCain (knee)

--Probable: T Branden Albert (hamstring), CB Zackary Bowman (not injury related), DT A.J. Francis (back), CB Brent Grimes (knee, ribs), S Reshad Jones (shoulder), QB Matt Moore (nose), DT Jordan Phillips (ankle), C Mike Pouncey (hip), WR Kenny Stills (back), DE Cameron Wake (hamstring)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DETROIT LIONS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee, ankle), DE Justin Trattou (foot)

--Probable: RB Matt Asiata (rib), T T.J. Clemmings (knee), DE Everson Griffen (illness), WR Charles Johnson (rib), CB Captain Munnerlyn (thumb), CB Terence Newman (ankle), RB Adrian Peterson (finger), WR Jarius Wright (hand)

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: LB DeAndre Levy (hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (knee, elbow)

--Questionable: CB Josh Wilson (concussion)

--Probable: RB Joique Bell (ankle), LB Josh Bynes (hip), TE Eric Ebron (knee), S James Ihedigbo (quadricep), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), DE Jason Jones (neck), P Sam Martin (left knee), DT Haloti Ngata (calf), RB Theo Riddick (groin), WR Golden Tate (ankle), LB Tahir Whitehead (shoulder)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: CB Keenan Lewis (hip, illness), T Andrus Peat (knee), CB Damian Swann (concussion)

--Probable: T Terron Armstead (knee), S Jairus Byrd (knee), WR Marques Colston (shoulder), LB Dannell Ellerbe (hip), LB Ramon Humber (thigh), G Tim Lelito (shoulder), LB Michael Mauti (foot), P Thomas Morstead (right quadricep)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: S Mike Adams (hamstring)

--Doubtful: S Clayton Geathers (knee)

--Probable: LB Jerrell Freeman (groin), LB Nate Irving (knee)

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: RB Bilal Powell (ankle)

--Doubtful: S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee)

--Questionable: G Willie Colon (knee)

--Probable: S Dion Bailey (elbow), LB Quinton Coples (elbow), WR Eric Decker (knee), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (right elbow), DT Damon Harrison (finger), WR Brandon Marshall (calf), WR Chris Owusu (knee), CB Buster Skrine (concussion), CB Marcus Williams (hamstring)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: T Marcus Cannon (toe), LB Rufus Johnson (illness), DE Jabaal Sheard (ankle)

--Questionable: RB Brandon Bolden (hamstring), DE Trey Flowers (shoulder, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (ribs), G Josh Kline (shoulder), RB Dion Lewis (abdomen), WR Keshawn Martin (hamstring), G Shaquille Mason (knee), WR Matt Slater (knee)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: DT Denico Autry (concussion)

--Doubtful: DT Justin Ellis (ankle)

--Probable: RB Taiwan Jones (foot), RB Latavius Murray (shoulder), S Charles Woodson (shoulder, knee)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: CB Craig Mager (hamstring), S Eric Weddle (groin), LB Tourek Williams (foot)

--Doubtful: LB Manti Te'o (ankle)

--Questionable: WR Keenan Allen (hip), T King Dunlap (concussion), TE Antonio Gates (knee), RB Melvin Gordon (ankle), T Chris Hairston (ankle), WR Steve Johnson (hamstring), C Chris Watt (groin, concussion)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Out: S Will Allen (ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (knee), QB Michael Vick (hamstring)

--Questionable: CB Cortez Allen (knee), QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee)

--Probable: CB Antwon Blake (thumb), CB William Gay (not injury related), LB James Harrison (not injury related), LB Jarvis Jones (hip), LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder), TE Matt Spaeth (not injury related)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: DE Mike Devito (concussion)

--Doubtful: LB Ramik Wilson (knee, ankle)

--Questionable: LB Tamba Hali (knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (concussion), LB Joshua Mauga (groin, Achilles), DT Dontari Poe (ankle)

--Probable: S Husain Abdullah (biceps), LB Justin Houston (elbow), TE Travis Kelce (facial laceration), K Cairo Santos (right foot), QB Alex Smith (right thumb)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: T Reid Fragel (concussion), DT Tony McDaniel (groin), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder)

--Questionable: LB Bruce Carter (thigh), G Logan Mankins (groin), WR Russell Shepard (hamstring), C Evan Smith (ankle)

--Probable: CB Johnthan Banks (knee), S Chris Conte (ankle), DE George Johnson (ribs), DT Gerald McCoy (shoulder), TE Luke Stocker (hip)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: CB Chris Culliver (knee), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), C Kory Lichtensteiger (neck)

--Doubtful: RB Chris Thompson (back)

--Questionable: DE Jason Hatcher (knee), DE Stephen Paea (back), TE Jordan Reed (concussion), LB Keenan Robinson (heel), T Trent Williams (concussion)

--Probable: CB Bashaud Breeland (knee), RB Matt Jones (toe), T Ty Nsekhe (foot), WR Andre Roberts (thumb), S Trenton Robinson (ankle)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at CAROLINA PANTHERS on Sunday night

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (knee)

--Questionable: DE Brandon Bair (groin), WR Riley Cooper (knee), LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring), LB DeMeco Ryans (hamstring)

--Probable: WR Josh Huff (knee)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: TE Richie Brockel (hamstring), DT Dwan Edwards (ankle), LB Shaq Thompson (knee), T Daryl Williams (knee)

--Probable: DE Jared Allen (back), LB A.J. Klein (concussion), CB Teddy Williams (concussion)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT SPREITZER

Miami Dolphins-4½

I'm recommending a play on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The coaching change in South Beach obviously had an immediate positive impact on the Dolphins. It wasn't just the departure from Joe Philbin's style of coaching, but the Dolphins also brought in a new defensive coordinator. There are no more passive 2-gap, react defensive looks from Miami. They're now utilizing their defensive skills with the sets Ndamukong Suh & Cameron Wake were asking for...and they got it last time out. The new aggressive approach led to a stellar performance in a 38-10 win over Tennessee. The Dolphins' defense held the Titans to 299 total yards with six sacks, a lot of pressure, and two interceptions. We know Houston will attempt to challenge Miami with a steady ground game, but the new defensive set should render the Texans' attack less effective. Opening things up a bit more on offense and playing a much more aggressive style of defense happens to fit Miami's personnel much better and we feel Miami is set to make it two straight wins and covers. The Texans are on a 5-15-1 ATS slide off a cover and we'll back the Dolphins in this one. I'm recommending a play on Miami minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buffalo at Jacksonville

When: 9:30 AM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Wembley Stadium, London

The Buffalo Bills head overseas to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and are looking to bounce back from yet another disappointing defensive effort with lingering questions at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor has already been ruled out after missing last week's game with a knee injury and defensive tackle Kyle Williams did not make the trip to London for Sunday's game.

Despite an improving offense, Jacksonville's porous defense has led to four straight losses. The Jaguars are ranked 30th in the league in scoring defense, surrendering 29.3 points a game. Second-year quarterback Blake Bortles continues to emerge, however, throwing seven touchdown passes in the last two weeks. The game will not be televised but instead will be NFL's first free global live streaming event.

INTERNET: CBS/Yahoo!, 9:30 a.m. ET. LINE: Bills -6. O/U: 42.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-3): Rex Ryan's highly touted and costly defense has been a major disappointment thus far ranking 20th in the league in total yardage and it was humbled by Cincinnati 34-21 last week. Taylor, who has completed 70.1 percent of his passes this season, will sit out again in favor of EJ Manuel, who ran for one score and threw for another in last week's setback. Manuel will be without two of Buffalo's top receivers as Sammy Watkins is sidelined with an ankle injury and Percy Harvin is out due to personal reasons.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-5): Bortles is fifth in the NFL in TD passes (13) and sixth in yards (1,630) and he may have to carry the load again with running back T.J. Yeldon listed as questionable with a groin injury. Wide receiver Allen Robinson, who leads the team with five touchdown receptions, is probable with a leg injury suffered in the final minutes of last week's 38-31 loss to the Bucs. The Jaguars did get back tight end Julius Thomas two weeks ago from a finger injury and the former Bronco star caught his first scoring pass with Jacksonville last week and hauled in seven catches.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Bills RB LeSean McCoy rushed for 90 yards last week after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.

2. Bills TE Charles Clay, who leads the team with 31 receptions, should be a prominent target.

3. Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson shared the work in the backfield for the Jaguars last week, combining for 45 yards on 16 carries.

PREDICTION: Bills 24, Jaguars 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tampa Bay at Washington

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland


Two young quarterbacks trying to prove their worth will square off Sunday, when the Washington Redskins host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay rookie Jameis Winston still is trying to prove he was worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, while Washington’s Kirk Cousins might be in danger of losing his starting job if he doesn’t show improvement.



Winston seemingly has embraced his role as a game manager in his debut NFL season, content to allow a strong defense and running game to carry the team. “I’m really nobody in this league yet, so (defenses) don’t have to worry about me,” Winston told reporters. “I have great teammates that do a great job, and we have a great team. That’s what I think the biggest thing about this league is: You have complete wins.” Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week following a 38-31 shootout win over Jacksonville, while Washington has lost two straight - including a 24-10 defeat at the New York Jets last week - but is in search of its third consecutive home victory. The Buccaneers have won five of the last seven meetings, including a 27-7 road victory last season in which Mike Evans rolled up 209 receiving yards and caught two touchdown passes.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Redskins -3.5. O/U: 43



ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-3): Winston has passed for at least 200 yards and one touchdown in each of his first five NFL starts, and he had his best game yet with a 122.5 rating against the Jaguars. An effective rushing attack led by the resurgent Doug Martin (405 yards, 3 TDs) has helped take the pressure off the rookie quarterback. Field position has hurt Tampa Bay's defense, which ranks fifth in total defense (322.8 yards) but 31st in scoring defense (29.6 points).

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-4): Cousins has been without two of his top receivers in DeSean Jackson, who injured his hamstring in the season opener, and tight end Jordan Reed, who has missed the last two games with a concussion. Reed could return Sunday, but Washington needs to get more from its running game – which has totaled just 85 yards in consecutive defeats – to ease the burden on Cousins. Washington’s defense also has slipped during the losing streak, allowing an average of 446 total yards (198.5 rushing) over the past two contests after limiting opponents to 288 total yards per game in Weeks 1-4.



EXTRA POINTS

1. Martin has recorded back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts and is tied for third in team history with nine in his career, trailing James Wilder (14) and Warrick Dunn (11).

2. Washington has forced multiple turnovers in three straight games – totaling eight in that span – and has three takeaways in each of the last two contests.

3. The Redskins aim to hold a seventh consecutive opponent scoreless on its opening drive for the first time since Weeks 11-17 of the 2007 season.



PREDICTION: Redskins 27, Buccaneers 23