Sunday 10/25/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Atlanta at Tennessee

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

The Atlanta Falcons look to rebound from their first loss of the season when they pay a visit to the reeling Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Devonta Freeman had two more touchdowns in Atlanta's 31-21 setback to NFC South-rival New Orleans on Oct. 15, raising his season total to 10 - four more than the next closest competitor (five others).

Julio Jones appears to be laboring in the face of hamstring and toe issues, as the stud wideout has been limited to just 15 receptions in the last three games after reeling in 34 in the first three contests. While Atlanta tasted defeat for the first time, Tennessee has had a steady diet of it with four straight losses following its season-opening victory over Tampa Bay. Marcus Mariota's availability for Sunday's game is in question after he suffered an MCL sprain in the Titans' 38-10 setback to Miami last week. Coach Ken Whisenhunt told the team's website that Mariota is "doing really well" despite failing to practice this week, but did not divulge whether the rookie or Zach Mettenberger will get the nod on Sunday.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons - 4.5. O/U: 48

ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-1): Matt Ryan is 83 yards shy of reaching 30,000 and would become the fifth-fastest quarterback to reach the plateau behind Dan Marino (114), Kurt Warner (114), Peyton Manning (115) and Aaron Rodgers (116). Ryan, who is set to play in his 117th contest, threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns last week versus the Saints but suffered his second lost fumble in two games. Roddy White pulled in his first touchdown pass of the season against New Orleans but has recorded just two receptions for three straight weeks.

ABOUT THE TITANS (1-4): Mettenberger "has been itching for a while" to play, Whisenhunt told the Tennessean. The second-year quarterback has made appearances in nine career games, throwing eight touchdowns against seven interceptions while also losing two fumbles. Tight end Delanie Walker reeled in eight receptions for 97 yards last week and his 22 catches lead a team that features only Kendall Wright (20) and Justin Hunter (11) also in double digits.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Atlanta boasts the top-ranked rush defense (78.8 yards per game) while Tennessee owns the league's best pass defense (184.0).

2. Titans WR Harry Douglas is nursing injured ribs and is questionable to face his former team.

3. Tennessee visits Houston next Sunday for its first road game since Sept. 20.

PREDICTION: Falcons 38, Titans 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New Orleans at Indianapolis

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Andrew Luck's return from a two-game injury absence didn't translate into a victory, but it provided an encouraging sign for the Indianapolis Colts heading into Sunday's matchup against the visiting New Orleans Saints. Although the Colts had a three-game winning streak halted by reigning Super Bowl champion New England, Luck had his best outing of the season.

Luck received plenty of criticism after tossing seven interceptions in the first three games, but he was referred to as a "stud" by Saints quarterback Drew Brees. "He’s a great athlete for his size and strength," Brees said. "He’s very poised no matter what the situation. And he’s won a lot of big games in the last few years. He’s got a really bright future ahead of him." Brees is also coming off one of his best games of the season with his third straight 300-yard effort in handing the Atlanta Falcons their first loss. In the last meeting between the teams in October 2011, Brees threw for five TDs as New Orleans dealt Indianapolis its worst loss in franchise history 62-7.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Colts -4. O/U: 52

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-4): Brees, who has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his five starts, will probably need another big offensive game given the issues of New Orleans' defense, which ranks last in the NFL with 409.7 yards per game surrendered. One of the major concerns for the Saints was how to replace the production of Jimmy Graham after the star tight end was traded in the offseason, but veteran Benjamin Watson provided a boost by catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a TD last week. New Orleans has been gashed by the run, giving up 138.2 yards per game.

ABOUT THE COLTS (3-3): Luck was intercepted seven times and did not throw for more than 260 yards in his first three starts, but he returned from a shoulder injury and finished with 312 yards for three touchdowns and zero picks against the Patriots. Wideout T.Y. Hilton has also dealt with injuries but got in the end zone for the first time this season while veteran running back Frank Gore had 78 yards on only 13 carries and has 403 on the season. Indy's defense ranks 29th in total yards allowed (401.8) and has been particularly generous against the pass (289.2 yards per game).

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brees has thrown for 932 yards and nine TDs in his last three games versus AFC foes.

2. Colts WR Donte Moncrief has a TD pass in four of six games this season.

3. The Saints released K Zack Hocker and signed former Washington Redskins K Kai Forbath.

PREDICTION: Colts 30, Saints 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Minnesota at Detroit

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

It took six weeks and an overtime, but the Detroit Lions finally picked up their first victory last week and are ready for more. The Lions will try to make it two straight when they host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Detroit was the last team in the NFL to secure its first win when it topped Chicago 37-34 in overtime last week and earned some redemption for quarterback Matt Stafford, who was benched late in the previous loss. Stafford threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns in the victory, his highest total since going 32-of-53 for 286 yards and a pair of scores in a 26-16 loss at Minnesota in Week 2. The Vikings have yet to earn a road win and are 1-14-1 in their last 16 road games against NFC North rivals. “I think we’ve started fast at home pretty good,” Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “I think if we will continue to start fast, I think that helps. But again, handling the crowd noise, making sure we don’t turn the ball over. We’ve got to protect the quarterback better than what we’ve done on the road, those will all be big things.”

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Vikings -2.5. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (3-2): Adrian Peterson had his biggest game of the season with 134 yards against Detroit in Week 2 but has seen his yardage total steadily decline since, down to 60 on 26 carries in a 16-10 win over Kansas City last week. Peterson suffered an injury to a finger on his left hand in the game but is expected to play versus the Lions. “We’re trying to be a balanced team around here,” quarterback Teddy Bridgewater told reporters.” We also know that we have one of the best running backs to ever play this game, so we would love to get that guy going. (Peterson) works extremely hard.”

ABOUT THE LIONS (1-5): Stafford’s big day coincided directly with a return to form by wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who finished with 166 yards and a score in the win after going three straight games without finding the end zone. “Can he still run by people? Absolutely,” coach Jim Caldwell told reporters. “Can he jump over the top over of folks and make catches? You better believe it. Can he score touchdowns? All right, he can do all of those things. So in that regard, I think his performance speaks for itself.” Johnson’s only other TD on the season came in Week 2 against the Vikings.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Lions claimed T Michael Ola off waivers from San Diego and waived OL Taylor Boggs.

2. Minnesota DE Everson Griffen underwent precautionary heart-related testing after being deactivated last week but it expected to return to practice and play Sunday.

3. Stafford has 16 career TD passes and five interceptions in 11 career starts against the Vikings.

PREDICTION: Lions 23, Vikings 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pittsburgh at Kansas City

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri


The Pittsburgh Steelers have had success despite a revolving door under center, and they hope that trend continues with Landry Jones expected to make his first NFL start when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Kansas City looks to end its five-game losing streak – its longest since an eight-game skid during a 2-14 campaign in 2012.



Ben Roethlisberger (knee) and Mike Vick (hamstring) are banged up, putting Jones in line to make his first start against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th against the pass. The Chiefs will be relieved if they don’t have to face Roethlisberger, who is 4-1 with a 106.8 rating versus Kansas City, but Jones flashed potential in relief of Vick in last week’s 25-13 win over Arizona, passing for 168 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in his NFL debut. Kansas City coach Andy Reid is looking for his 162nd career victory, which would move him past former Steeler Bill Cowher for 18th place on the all-time list. The Steelers have won three straight meetings, including a 20-12 triumph in Pittsburgh last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs -1. O/U: NL



ABOUT THE STEELERS (4-2): Jones benefited from the return of receiver Martavis Bryant, who made six catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns in his season debut last week. He and Antonio Brown will test Kansas City’s young secondary, and Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams lead the league’s eighth-ranked running game. Pittsburgh has been susceptible against the pass but terrific versus the run, allowing just 93.3 rushing yards per game and only one touchdown on the ground.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-5): Kansas City’s offense wasn’t putting up huge numbers even before losing star running back Jamaal Charles, and the club has averaged just 307.5 total yards the last two games. Alex Smith has gone three games without an interception but hasn’t produced enough big plays and could be without leading receiver Jeremy Maclin (concussion) on Sunday. Kansas City has struggled against the pass at times but has played well defensively in its last two losses, holding Chicago and Minnesota under 330 total yards.



EXTRA POINTS

1. Brown needs one 100-yard receiving performance to join Hines Ward (29) and John Stallworth (25) as the only Steelers with 20 or more.

2. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce needs four receptions to reach 100 in his career.

3. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in red-zone offense, converting 75 percent of its trips inside the 20 into TDs, while Kansas City ranks 30th in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns 71.4 percent of the time.



PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Chiefs 19

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cleveland at St. Louis

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri

The Cleveland Browns look to make it two straight road wins when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, but their porous run defense will have to come up big against a red-hot rookie rusher in order to do so. Todd Gurley, the 10th overall pick in this year's draft, gained 305 yards on the ground in his first two career starts prior to St. Louis' bye last week.

The 21-year-old, who still is recovering from offseason knee surgery, is looking to join former Ram Eric Dickerson as the only rookies in NFL history to rush for at least 140 yards in three straight contests. Cleveland, which recorded a 33-30 overtime victory at Baltimore in Week 5, has allowed a league-worst 149.8 rushing yards per game and yielded 152 in last week's overtime loss to Denver. The Browns rank 30th in total defense (407.3 yards), but St. Louis' offense is last in total yards per game (297) and 31st in passing yards (183.2). The teams have not met since Nov. 13, 2011, when the Rams escaped Cleveland with a 13-12 triumph.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Rams -6.5. O/U: 41.5

ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-4): Gary Barnidge will be watched closely Sunday as he caught two touchdown passes last week to become the second tight end in club history with a scoring catch in four consecutive games, joining Ozzie Newsome (1981). Wide receiver Travis Benjamin, who set career highs with nine receptions and 117 yards against Denver, has gone three straight contests without a touchdown after recording four in his first three games. Cleveland may be without Joe Haden for a second straight contest as the cornerback has yet to practice this week due to a concussion.

ABOUT THE RAMS (2-3): St. Louis is tied for third in the league and ranks second in the NFC with 19 sacks. Robert Quinn has notched a team-leading four of them but could miss Sunday's game due to a knee injury. Like Quinn, fellow defensive end Chris Long (knee) has not participated in practice and is doubtful to face Cleveland.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Rams WR-PR Tavon Austin is one of two players in the NFL this season with a rushing, receiving and return touchdown.

2. Cleveland S Tashaun Gipson (ankle) also hasn't practiced and is in line to miss his third consecutive game.

3. St. Louis LB James Laurinaitis is the only player in the NFL since 2009 with at least 15 sacks and 10 interceptions.

PREDICTION: Browns 31, Rams 27

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Houston at Miami

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

After answering the bell in Dan Campbell's coaching debut, the Miami Dolphins vie for consecutive victories for the first time in nearly a calendar year when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins hardly looked like the team that dropped three in a row - and saw former coach Joe Philbin fired as a result - in its convincing 38-10 rout of Tennessee last week.

"The challenge now is for these guys to not start patting themselves on the back," Campbell told reporters. "We've been notorious for that around here. We get a big win, and then a lull the next week." Miami will look to even its record by defeating Houston for the first time in eight meetings since the Texans joined the NFL. Third-year wideout DeAndre Hopkins (NFL-best 726 receiving yards) continued his scintillating season by hauling in 10 catches for 148 yards and two scores in Houston's 31-20 triumph over Jacksonville last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Dolphins -4. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-4): Arian Foster found the end zone versus the Jaguars and eclipsed 100 total yards for the second time in as many games since returning from a groin injury. The 29-year-old derailed the Dolphins with a pair of scores in their last meeting, a 30-10 victory in 2012. Brian Hoyer has thrown for seven touchdowns in his last three games, including three against Jacksonville.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2-3): Ryan Tannehill was introduced to J.J. Watt in the teams' last meeting, as the quarterback saw the defensive end wreak havoc by batting a pair of balls that led to two of his three interceptions. Although Tannehill has thrown a pair of touchdown passes in four straight games, he's also been picked off seven times in his last three. Electric wideout Jarvis Landry was been limited to just seven catches for 82 yards in his last two weeks after pulling in 24 receptions for 230 in his previous three.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Miami RB Lamar Miller rushed 19 times for 113 yards and a touchdown last week after having 24 carries for 78 yards in his previous three tilts.

2. Houston LB Jadeveon Clowney was limited in practice Thursday with an ailing ankle.

3. The Dolphins are tied with Atlanta for the fewest sacks (seven) in the league.

PREDICTION: Texans 17, Dolphins 15

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: N.Y. Jets at New England

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

The New York Jets have quietly won four of their first five games to make a statement in the AFC East. New York can make a considerably louder noise on Sunday afternoon with a victory over the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in Foxborough, Mass.

Sheldon Richardson certainly wasn't shy about talking, as the Jets mammoth defensive tackle did his best Joe Namath impression by guaranteeing victory over the undefeated Patriots. "This is going to be another win for us," Richardson told Metro New York. "We'll let you all write the columns about validating wins and stuff like that." Richardson's remarks will likely provide bulletin-board material for New England, which has an average margin of victory of 16 points this season. Tom Brady, who tossed three touchdowns in the Patriots' 34-27 victory over Indianapolis last week, leads the team's second-ranked passing offense against the Jets' top-ranked defense.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -9. O/U: 48

ABOUT THE JETS (4-1): After helping the Patriots win that Super Bowl, cornerback Darrelle Revis elected to pack his bags and sign a five-year, $70 million contract with his former team. "I don't think I'll be welcomed back with open arms, I'll tell you that," Revis told the New York Daily News. Chris Ivory likely won't be received well either, especially if he continues his torrid two-game stretch (49 carries, 312 yards and two touchdowns) against the 22nd-ranked Patriots' rush defense.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (5-0): In addition to wideout Julian Edelman (team-leading 40 receptions, four TDs) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (five scores), Brady may see the return of another key weapon on Sunday in the form of Brandon LaFell (foot). The wideout came off the PUP list and could be active for the first time after finishing with 74 receptions, 953 yards and seven touchdowns last season. LeGarrette Blount rolled up a season-best total of 93 yards with a pair of scores last week, but was held to zero yards on five carries against the Jets on Nov. 9 in his last game with Pittsburgh.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New York WR Brandon Marshall has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in each of his last four games, including 111 and a touchdown in his team's 34-20 win over Washington.

2. New England DE Chandler Jones had 2 1/2 sacks last week and leads the team with 5 1/2.

3. Jets RB Stevan Ridley (knee) looks to return from the PUP list to make his season debut against his former team.

PREDICTION: Patriots 31, Jets 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oakland at San Diego

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers both look to avoid a third straight loss Sunday, when the AFC West rivals square off at Qualcomm Stadium. Oakland attempts to end its slide as it comes out of its bye week after losing to Chicago and Denver by a combined eight points.

The Raiders will not have Justin Tuck to apply pressure on Philip Rivers, however, as the veteran defensive end is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. San Diego was held to 20 points for the second straight week by Green Bay last Sunday despite an outstanding performance by Rivers, who set franchise records of 43 completions, 65 attempts and 503 yards. The veteran quarterback leads the league in all three categories this season and has won six of his last seven starts against Oakland, throwing for 1,810 yards and 13 touchdowns with only five interceptions in that span. The Chargers have won three straight meetings with Oakland, posting their only two division victories last season versus the Raiders.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chargers -3.5. O/U: 46.5

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-3): Charles Woodson is one of those rare specimens that gets better with age. The 39-year-old cornerback shares the league lead with four interceptions and is tied with Ed Reed for sixth place on the all-time list with 64, one behind Ken Riley for fifth overall. The product of the University of Michigan has returned 11 picks for touchdowns, one behind Hall-of-Famer Rod Woodson for the most in NFL history.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2-4): Rivers became the 17th quarterback in league history to pass for 500 yards last week and has recorded at least 350 and two touchdowns in each of his last three games. He will need to register 424 or more yards against Oakland to surpass Tom Brady (2011) for the most passing yards in a game following a 500-yard performance. Tight end Antonio Gates is one touchdown away from overtaking Hall-of-Famer Steve Largent (101) for 19th place on the all-time list.

EXTRA POINTS

1. San Diego's defense is allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry.

2. Oakland RB Latavius Murray has gained only 88 total yards in his last two contests after rushing for 139 in Week 3.

3. Rivers is one of four QBs in NFL history to start 150 consecutive games.

PREDICTION: Chargers 34, Raiders 30

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dallas at N.Y. Giants

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

The Dallas Cowboys' quarterback carousel has turned to Matt Cassel to start Sunday's game against the bitter NFC East-rival New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Brandon Weeden proved ineffective as Dallas dropped three straight games heading into its bye week.

Acquired two days after Tony Romo broke his collarbone last month, Cassel is expected to take over an offense that is completely in flux. The Cowboys will try to re-energize their rushing game while still dealing with the effects of losing star wideout Dez Bryant (foot) in a 27-26 victory over New York in the season opener. The Giants saw their three-game winning streak end with a thud in their 27-7 drubbing by Philadelphia on Monday. Eli Manning was intercepted twice versus the Eagles and has been picked off four times in the last three contests, but has thrown nine touchdowns against one interception in his last four home games versus the Cowboys.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Giants -3.5. O/U: 45

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-3): Jason Witten traditionally torches New York, reeling in a pair of touchdowns in the season opener - including an 11-yard score with seven seconds remaining to seal the win. The veteran tight end hasn't scored since that game, although his two touchdown receptions are tied with Terrance Williams for the team lead. Running back Christine Michael received a healthy uptick of reps in practice, but offensive coordinator Scott Linehan told reporters he doesn't expect "big changes" at the expense of Joseph Randle, who has topped 65 yards rushing on one occasion this season.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-3): Celebrated wideout Odell Beckham Jr. set social media ablaze after his scintillating one-handed catch in Dallas' last visit to the Garden State. Although limited to just 44 yards receiving in the season opener, Beckham has overcome a nagging hamstring injury to find the end zone in four of his last five contests. "Teams are going to try to take (Beckham) away and that's fine," Manning said. "... The other guys have to make plays." Beckham leads the team with 38 receptions and four scores, while Rueben Randle and tight end Larry Donnell each have 24 catches and two touchdowns.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New York RB Rashad Jennings scored his lone rushing touchdown this season versus Dallas and is averaging just 38.2 yards per game in the last five weeks.

2. Dallas rookie DE Randy Gregory is expected to play after missing four contests with a high-ankle sprain.

3. The Giants are a fifth-best plus-5 in the turnover differential while the Cowboys are minus-5 (fourth-worst).

PREDICTION: Giants 24, Cowboys 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Philadelphia at Carolina

When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2015
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

The Carolina Panthers will be bidding for the first 6-0 start in franchise history when they play host to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night. The Panthers answered questions about the relative strength of their early-season schedule by scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final 3:55 in a come-from-behind victory at Seattle last weekend.

“This was one of the bigger victories that we have had since I have been here,” Carolina coach Ron Rivera said after his club erased a nine-point deficit in the 27-23 win. “One of the things that stood out was the resiliency." The Panthers have a score to settle with the Eagles after absorbing a 45-21 drubbing at Philadelphia last season. The Eagles stumbled out of the gate with three losses in their first four games but are coming off impressive lopsided victories over New Orleans and the New York Giants to move into a tie atop the NFC East. “We have a long way to go but we know where we want to be at,” running back DeMarco Murray said.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Panthers -3. O/U: 46

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): Murray had an ugly start to his career in Philadelphia by rushing for 11 yards on 21 carries in the first two games, but he ran for 112 yards last week and scored a touchdown for the second straight contest. Quarterback Sam Bradford continues to struggle, throwing a season-worst three interceptions last week - his fourth game with multiple picks - to boost his season total to nine. Philadelphia's defense, which has forced 16 turnovers, has registered eight of its 14 sacks in the past two weeks while limiting the Giants to 247 total yards.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (5-0): Carolina beat Seattle at its own game by putting together four 80-yard touchdown drives as Newton overcame a pair of interceptions to throw for 269 yards and one TD while running for another score. Jonathan Stewart is coming off a season-high 78 yards and his first two rushing scores while tight end Greg Olsen has three touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a pair of 100-yard games in his last three. Pro Bowl middle linebacker Luke Kuechly returned from a concussion last week for a defense that is yielding only 338.0 yards per game.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Newton was sacked a career-worst nine times by the Eagles last season

2. Eagles WR Jordan Matthews had seven catches for 138 yards and two TDs in the last meeting versus Carolina.

3. Panthers CB Josh Norman has a league-high four interceptions, two for TDs.

PREDICTION: Eagles 24, Panthers 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Vikings
Redskins
Raiders
Panthers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

King Creole

Detroit Lions

According to our database models, the wrong team is favored in this game. As of Saturday afternoon, Minnesota was laying -1.5 to -2.5 points in this one. Our power ratings suggest that DETROIT would be favored by -3 to -4 points. That's a fairly significant line swing of FIVE to SIX points. These two teams have already played each other this season. That was back in WeeK Two when the Vikings won at home 26-16 as favorites of -2.5 points. The irony is that they were only SHORT home favs in that game. Yet in this week's game, they're favored on the ROAD by almost the same amount of points. So it's Detroit that's already playing with early-season REVENGE. I like the sound of that. Especially knowing that the LIONS have gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS at home in the last five season with DIVISION REVENGE when the OU line is 53 < points.

This will be the third STRAIGHT home game in a row for the Lions. They have failed to cash an ATS win in the first two games. A SU and ATS loss two weeks ago vs Arizona. And a SU win BUT an ATS loss last week vs the Bears… 6-1 ATS since 2008: All teams in their third STRAIGHT home game… off back-to-back ATS losses (DETROIT)… versus any division opponent (Minnesota).

At least we're getting the MUCH better offense in this game. Detroit scored 37 points last week in their win vera Chicago. Minnesota scored only 16 points in their win over Kansas City last week… 6-0 ATS since 1980: All division underdogs of > 1 points after scoring 35 > points (LIONS) versus any opponent off a SU win in which they scored 17 < points (Vikings).

Last week's win over Chicago was the FIRST of the season for the Lions… 5-0 ATS last four years: All GAME SIX or greater DIVISION teams (DETROIT) playing off their FIRST win of the season.

Minnesota came off their Bye last week and covered the spread as a home favorite… 0-5 ATS since 1995: All road teams off a SU and ATS non-division home win in the game AFTER their Bye Week (Minnesota).

Yes, we've only played six weeks of NFL football so far in the 2015 season. But some pretty solid underdogs patterns have already started to emerge. For instance, all DIVISION underdogs have gone 17-9-1 ATS so far this season. Also…

DIVISION underdogs have gone 6-1 ATS (LIONS) after playing a division game…

All UNDERDOGS off a SU win (DETROIT) have gone 10-4-2 ATS versus any .500 > opponent (Minnesota).

The Vikings are NOT a team that you want to be betting on as 'road chalk'… MINNESOTA has gone a PERFECT 0-6 ATS in the last four years as road favorites versus any < .500 opponent (DETROIT).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 76

UFC Fight Night 76: Poirier vs. Duffy
Saturday, October 24th – 4:00 p.m. ET
Dublin, Ireland

Dustin Poirier(18-4-0) vs. Joe Duffy (14-1-0)
Five Round Lightweight Bout
Line: Poirier +180, Duffy -225

American Dustin Poirier takes on the Ireland-born Joe Duffy in Dublin.

Dustin Poirier, a Louisiana native, has a career MMA record of 18-4-0. He made his professional debut in 2009, and fought his first UFC bout in 2011. He compiled a 7-0-0 record before suffering his first defeat, and has never lost two consecutive fights on the circuit.

The 26-year-old American has won his two most recent fights, but perhaps his most notable UFC result was a defeat against Conor McGregor in September of 2014. Half of Poirier’s 18 victories have come via knockout, an impressive number for the 155-pounder.

His opponent, Justin Duffy, has only four knockout victories to his name, but is still a more-than-capable fighter. He began his MMA career in 2008, racked up ten consecutive wins before suffering his first defeat, and has not lost since.

Duffy signed with UFC just this year, and has won both of his UFC fights in the first round. The 27-year-old Irishman will like his chances, especially in front of a hometown crowd in Dublin.

Poirier is a very solid boxer, and has averaged 4.65 significant strikes per minute at an impressive accuracy of over 50 percent.

His strike defense, however, is not the best, as he absorbs 3.21 significant strikes per minute and defends these strikes at a rate of just 57.83 percent. In terms of grappling, Poirier has averaged 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes at 32.43 percent clip, and has defended takedowns at a rate of 65.71 percent.

He has also averaged a relatively low 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Duffy, on the other hand, has averaged a solid 3.08 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has yet to attempt a takedown in his MMA career, but has also defended takedowns impeccably at a 100 percent rate.

He has averaged 4.73 significant strikes per minute, but at a rate of just 33.33 percent.

His defense, however, is better than that of Poirier, as he absorbs just 2.67 significant strikes per minute and defends them at a 65.79 percent clip. 1711749

Other UFC FightNight 76 Odds

Heavyweight Bout:
Stipe Miocic -340
Ben Rothwell +280

Welterweight Bout:
Nicolas Dalby -135
Darren Till +115

Flyweight Bout:
Patrick Holohan -105
Louis Smolka -115

Lightweight Bout:
Norman Parke -275
Reza Madadi +235

Lightweight Bout:
Stevie Ray -430
Mickael Lebout +310

Flyweight Bout:
Neil Seery -150
Jon Delos Reyes +120

Middleweight Bout:
Scott Askham OFF
Krzysztof Jotko OFF

Women's Strawweight Bout:
Aisling Daly -140
Ericka Almeida +100

Welterweight Bout:
Cathal Pendred +170
Tom Breese -230

Featherweight Bout:
Darren Elkins -180
Robert Whiteford +140

Middleweight Bout:
Bubba Bush -245
Garreth McLellan +175

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wild (5-1) at Jets (4-2)

Date: October 25, 2015 6:00 PM EDT

Following a lackluster road trip, the Minnesota Wild quickly got back to winning when they returned home for two games against struggling teams.

The Wild will likely face stiffer opposition and a seemingly motivated rival in the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday when they hit the road again for a brief trip.

Minnesota (5-1-1) secured its best start since going 6-0-1 in 2008-09 by topping winless Columbus 3-2 on Thursday and beating Anaheim 3-0 on Saturday. Devan Dubnyk needed to make just 15 saves for his first shutout this season and drop the Ducks, a Western Conference finalist in 2014-15, to 1-5-1.

Jared Spurgeon also had a pair of assists for the second straight contest.

"It was a good team win and now we get to forget about really quickly and get ready for a tough game (Sunday)," coach Mike Yeo said. "Obviously, they're going to play hard against us, but we're going to play hard against them in our own way. We're going to go in there and focus on playing our game."

The Ducks previously sent the Wild to their only regulation loss, a 4-1 defeat Oct. 18 that ended a 1-1-1 road trip. Minnesota will return home after this trek to Winnipeg and play five of its next six games on its own ice.

The Wild just missed their third straight win in Winnipeg in their most recent visit Feb. 10, falling 2-1 in overtime. They went 2-1-2 in the season series against their Central Division rivals and finished one point ahead of the Jets in the Western Conference.

"I don't think either team really likes each other," coach Paul Maurice said. "It's a function of us being neck and neck with them in the standings and scratching and clawing and playing five times. That will be the story (Sunday)."

The Jets (4-2-1) head into this season's initial matchup seeking to snap their first losing streak in 2015-16. They lost 4-3 in overtime to Tampa Bay on Friday and dropped to 1-1-1 on their six-game homestand.

Blake Wheeler tied a franchise record with a seven-game season-opening point streak. He scored a short-handed goal in the third period, giving him four goals and five assists during his run.

"He has a real strong understanding of his game," Maurice said. "He's not necessarily hoping for points. He's certainly doesn't cheat anywhere on the ice. He gives everything he can.

"I think he's just a real mature, high-end pro now."

Wheeler had two goals and one assist last season against Minnesota. Wild forward Jason Pominville had two goals and five assists in 2014-15 versus Winnipeg, but he's gone pointless in his last four games.

Pominville scored both goals on Michael Hutchinson, and Maurice indicated there's a chance the Jets' backup goaltender could start Sunday.

Hutchinson has allowed two goals on 62 shots while winning his first two games this season and is 2-2-0 with a 1.97 goals-against average in four career starts against Minnesota.

With Dubnyk starting Saturday, Darcy Kuemper will likely make his second appearance this season. He made 35 saves in a 2-1 overtime loss in Los Angeles on Oct. 16 and is 2-0-0 with a 1.71 GAA in two career starts against the Jets, both last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Flames (2-5) at Rangers (5-2)

Date: October 25, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

It's been a tough start for the Calgary Flames, but they're beginning to look like their old selves.

Fresh off a stirring comeback victory characteristic of last season's surprise playoff run, the Flames look to continue the momentum when they begin a three-game trip Sunday night against the New York Rangers.

Calgary (2-5-0) had lost four straight and appeared on the way to another defeat Thursday against Detroit, but Joe Colborne scored with 1:12 remaining in regulation and Mark Giordano's goal 3:12 into overtime lifted the Flames to a 3-2 win.

The Flames had 10 wins when trailing after two periods and tied for first in the NHL with nine overtime victories en route to ending a five-year postseason absence in 2014-15.

'We deserved that one, I thought, and got rewarded late," said Giordano, who finished with two goals and an assist in Calgary's first win in five home games this season.

The Flames were also aided by improved goaltending, with Jonas Hiller making 27 saves after he and Karri Ramo surrendered 11 goals over the previous two losses.

'He stepped up,' said forward Sean Monahan. 'He played a great game for us, kept us in it and made some really timely saves. It's a big credit to him for that win.'

Calgary still ranks near the bottom of the NHL in goals allowed per game (3.86) and save percentage (.877). Ramo, who started the final four games of last May's Western Conference semifinals series with Anaheim, was demoted to the minors Thursday after particularly struggling.

The Flames would likely benefit from another sharp goaltending performance, as the Rangers are 5-0-0 when scoring three goals or more and have lost all four times when falling short of that mark.

New York (5-2-2) has had some early defensive issues as well, allowing an average of 32.9 shots per game. The Rangers have still earned points in four straight after Henrik Lundqvist recorded 46 saves in Saturday's 3-2 shootout loss at Philadelphia that snapped a two-game win streak.

"I felt really good during the game, but in the shootout, I wasn't good enough at all," Lundqvist told the Rangers' official website.

Lundqvist will rest Sunday following the busy effort, with Antti Raanta seeking to build off an impressive Rangers debut on Monday. The offseason acquisition turned away 22 shots in a 4-0 victory over San Jose at Madison Square Garden.

Raanta had 23 saves in a 2-1 win over Calgary while with Chicago on Dec. 14, improving to 2-0-0 in three career meetings.

He's never lost in regulation at home, going 15-0-3 with a 1.51 goals-against average and four shutouts in 20 appearances with the Blackhawks and Rangers.

Hiller owns a 1.36 GAA in five starts against the Rangers but hasn't faced them since a 34-save shutout with Anaheim on Oct. 10, 2013.

New York won both games between the teams last season and has prevailed in five of the last six matchups. Calgary, which visits the Islanders Monday before concluding this trek Wednesday in Ottawa, has lost three straight at MSG since a 3-0 win on Dec. 7, 2008.

Rangers forward Viktor Stalberg will miss the game after sustaining a head injury on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (4-3) at Oilers (3-5)

Date: October 25, 2015 9:30 PM EDT

Rather than get discouraged by a slow start, the Los Angeles Kings stuck to their plan and are now in the midst of a winning streak.

The Edmonton Oilers likely will need a much better effort than their last time out in order to end the visiting Kings' four-game run Sunday night.

Los Angeles (4-3-0) was outscored 12-2 during an opening three-game skid after missing last season's playoffs and a chance to defend its second Stanley Cup title in three years.

Jonathan Quick had a .861 save percentage while losing each of those contests, but he's stopped 87 of 89 shots in three starts during the winning streak after a 40-save performance in Friday's 3-0 victory over Carolina.

"We're just playing harder and a little bit more desperate," said Anze Kopitar, who scored in the third period against the Hurricanes. "We're progressing. We didn't start off very hot, and now we're building."

Tyler Toffoli is showing no signs of slowing down. His two goals Friday put him among the league leaders with six, and he's scored in each game during the win streak.

Coach Darryl Sutter isn't surprised by his production after he broke out last season with 23 goals and 26 assists despite missing time with mononucleosis. Toffoli had five goals and eight assists during the Kings' 6-1-2 start last season.

"He was (hot) early last year, too," Sutter said. "Last year at this time, (Jeff) Carter, (Tanner) Pearson, and Toffoli were carrying the offense part of our team, so it's not really new (and) he's probably just building on last year. Last year he went down with mono and he struggled after that. Now he's healthy and strong and feels good."

The Oilers (3-5-0) also got off to a rough start by dropping their first four, but they bounced back to win their next three. That run ended Friday in a 7-4 loss to Washington, which scored four of the game's final five goals. Edmonton allowed two on the power play, matching the amount it gave up over its first seven combined.

"We weren't ready to play and we made it pretty easy on them," defenseman Eric Gryba said. "When you're playing against the best players in the world and you give them easy nights, they're going to look good and they're going to play good. We've got to be better."

Coach Todd McLellan expressed his disappointment with "certain individuals" without naming specific players, but he likely wasn't talking about Connor McDavid.

The No. 1 overall pick has been as good as advertised, scoring Friday to give him team highs of five goals and eight points. McDavid and Nail Yakupov assisted on Benoit Pouliot's first-period goal, and the trio has formed a productive line with 19 points.

Edmonton's biggest issue against the Capitals was in net. Anders Nilsson gave up six goals on 17 shots before being relieved by Cam Talbot midway through the second.

It's likely Talbot will get his sixth start in this contest. He has a 2.22 GAA but allowed seven goals while going 1-1-0 in two starts against the Kings last season while with the New York Rangers.

Quick is 9-0-2 with a 1.34 GAA in his last 11 against the Oilers and wasn't in net for Edmonton's 4-2 victory in the most recent meeting April 7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Minnesota won four of its first six games.
-- Devils won last three games, all in OT/SO.
-- Montreal won its first eight games, allowing nine goals.
-- Islanders/Blues both won four of their last five games.
-- Flyers won three of last four games. Rangers won last two games, allowing one goal.
-- Dallas Stars won their last five games.
-- Penguins won three of their last four games. Nashville won six of its first seven.
-- Lightning are 5-3 this season, 2-3 in last five games. Chicago won four of last six games.

Cold teams
-- Ducks lost five of their first six games.
-- Sabres lost five of their first seven games.
-- Arizona lost last four games, allowing 16 goals. Ottawa lost four of its last five.
-- Maple Leafs lost five of their first six games.
-- Florida lost last three games: 3-2/3-2/4-2.
-- Blue Jackets lost their first eight games, worst NHL start in 72 years. Colorado lost three of its last four games.
-- Hurrricanes lost five of their first seven games. Sharks lost their last three games.
-- Detroit lost last four games, scoring seven goals. Canucks lost last three games.

Series records
-- Ducks won nine of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Devils won their last three games with Buffalo.
-- Senators won three of last four games with Arizona.
-- Canadiens won their last seven games with Toronto.
-- Islanders lost their last five games with St Louis.
-- Rangers won four of last five games with Philly.
-- Dallas Stars won last three games with Florida.
-- Penguins won five of last six games with Nashville.
-- Avalanche won three of last four games with Columbus.
-- Blackhawks won last three games with Tampa Bay.
-- Sharks lost five of last six games with Carolina.
-- Red Wings won five of their last seven games with Vancouver.

Totals
-- Under is 4-1-1 in first six Anaheim games.
-- Under is 4-0-2 in last six Buffalo-New Jersey games.
-- Over is 8-2 in last ten Arizona-Ottawa games.
-- Under is 3-1-2 in last six Montreal games.
-- Last six Islander-St Louis games went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Ranger games.
-- Six of last nine Florida-Dallas games went over.
-- Last four Pittsburgh-Nashville games stayed under.
-- Last three Columbus games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay-Chicago games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Carolina-San Jose games.
-- Four of last five Detroit-Vancouver games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 10
By Chris David

Week 9 Recap

With the first quarter of the season behind us, Premier League bettors are starting to see the contenders separate themselves from the contenders and last week’s results saw eight clubs earn victories, including all of the Top 4 teams.

Manchester United’s 3-0 win at Everton was a very impressive effort and so was Arsenal’s late-surge in its 3-0 victory at Watford. Chelsea dominated Aston Villas 2-0 with its defense while Manchester City blasted Bournemouth 5-1 behind Raheem Sterling’s hat-trick.

Including those outcomes, favorites went 6-2 in Week 9 with West Ham United (+260) and Stoke City (+270) representing the two underdogs to pull off upsets against Crystal Palace and Swansea City respectively.

On Sunday New Castle United ripped Norwich City 6-2, which was the highest combined goals posted in the league this season. The ‘over’ easily cashed and produced a 6-4 mark last weekend.

Through nine weeks, favorites have gone 40-24 with 26 draws while the ‘over’ is 47-41-2.

Champions & Europa League Recaps

The biggest news from this competition took place on Tuesday as Arsenal (+255) knocked off German power Bayern Munich as a live home underdog. Manchester City (-180) also won at home, a 2-1 decision against Spanish club Sevilla. Manchester United and Chelsea both went on the road and captured draws.

In Europa action, Tottenham lost a 2-1 decision on the road and Liverpool earned a draw, it’s third in the completion and second under new head coach Juergen Klopp.

Top 4

All eyes will be on Old Trafford this weekend as the Manchester Derby takes place from Old Trafford between United and City.

Chelsea at West Ham United (Saturday, NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

The Blues (-110) will look to win their second straight league game for the first time this season as they meet West Ham United (+290) from Upton Park.

Surprisingly the Hammers have been better on the road (4-1) than at home (1-1-2) this season. Road victories against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are very impressive and can’t be ignored. Plus, the club has better of late at home, going 1-1-0 and holding opponents to two goals in their last two matches.

Chelsea has gone 1-2-1 outside of Stamford Bridge and has allowed 10 goals. The defense has been better recently, posting a pair of clean sheets in their last two competitions but the offense is certainly lacking. The return of striker Diego Costa helped in last week’s win and that should continue as his condition improves.

The total of 2 ½ is shaded to the ‘over’ (-140) which seems fair with both Chelsea and West Ham posting identical 7-2 marks to the ‘over’ this season.

Make a note that Chelsea has gone 4-1-0 in the last five encounters against West Ham while outscoring them 8-0 during this span. Going back further, the Blues are 14-3-1 in the last 18 against United and that includes a 7-1-1 record at Upton Park.

Arsenal vs. Everton (Saturday, NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Arsene Wenger’s club is in great form lately and Tuesday’s 2-0 victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League should only boost the confidence of Arsenal. The Gunners have now won three straight and five of its last six behind an offense that has posted 17 goals over this six-game run.

Some bettors might expect Arsenal (-260) to have a letdown in this spot and the draw (+410) does present value against an Everton (+675) squad that hasn’t dropped points on the road this season. The Gunners won’t have Aaron Ramsey available and Alexis Sanchez could come off the bench instead of starting.

Despite not losing this season on the road, the Toffees (2-2-0) have been a tough team to gauge. In their victories, they posted three goals but have been held scoreless in the draws.

Since losing its home opener to West Ham United (2-0) in early August, Arsenal has responded with a 2-1-0 record and they haven’t allowed a goal during this span. Despite watching the ‘under’ go 3-1 in EPL games at the Emirates this season and allowing seven goals in nine games, most books have settled at total of 3 goals for Saturday’s match.

In the last seven meetings between the pair, the home team has never lost but there have been four draws. Last season, Arsenal earned a 2-0 decision at Emirates Stadium after playing to a 2-2 draw at Goodison Park. The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four games in this series.

Manchester City at Manchester United (Sunday, NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

This will be one of four early games on tap for Sunday and the winner of this matchup could be sitting in first place of the Premier League. Manchester City (7-0-2) currently sits in the top spot while Manchester United (6-1-2) is tied for second place. Both clubs played in Champions League matches this week and City could have a slight advantage since they played at home while United played in Moscow.

Toby Maxtone-Smith offered up his thoughts on this week’s matchup. “The Manchester derby's very interesting this weekend. I'll admit I just cannot work out Man United,” said Smith. “I backed them to win at Arsenal and they lost 3-0, and then I backed Everton against them and they won 3-0. At the prices I'd rather be with City, but the Over 2 ½ goals (-120) would be my preferred bet. The big games in the English Premier League have become so much more open in the last five years.”

In the last six encounters, there has been at least three goals scored in five of those games.

Considering the two teams only have one draw between them this season, picking either City (+175) or United (+160) seems like the better play than the tie (+235). Last season, both teams held serve at home with wins and the most recent meeting in April from Old Trafford watched United double-up City 4-2.

City will be without striker Sergio Aguero due to a hamstring injury and that will hurt the club going up against a United’s defense, which has posted five clean sheets this season and only conceded one goal at Old Trafford.

Fearless Predictions

Our straight plays washed each another out (2-2) but it could’ve been profitable if Chelsea netted one more goal. Fortunately, the ‘chalk’ parlay of the Top 4 teams finally cashed and that returned $450 which cut our annual deficit by nearly a third ($1,130). This week, I’m spreading the action around evenly for both days and hoping the parlays are alive for Sunday.

Straight – Over 2 ½ (-120) Crystal Palace-Leicester City – 2 Units

Straight – Stoke City (+110) over Watford – 2 Units

Straight – Under 3 (+100) Everton-Arsenal – 1 Unit

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-105) Manchester City-Manchester United – 2 Units

Straight – Liverpool (+100) over Southampton – 1 Unit

Parlay - 1 Unit
Under 2 (+110) Swansea-City-Aston Villa
Tottenham +120
Under 2 ½ (-105) Manchester City-Manchester United

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

United hosts City as Manchester derby headlines intriguing week
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

The Manchester Derby headlines a week in the Premier League fixture list filled with great matches. Soccer Authority breaks down what you need to know in four of the biggest games on the board.

Arsenal vs. Everton

In-form Arsenal will go top of the Barclays Premier League if they beat Everton at Emirates Stadium on Saturday. Arsenal have lost just one of their last 16 BPL meetings with Everton, but four of the last six have ended all square. However, Everton had a good record against Manchester United before that came to a sudden end last weekend with a 3-0 home loss to The Red Devils.

Arsene Wenger's men have scored 11 goals on their way to winning their last three top-flight fixtures and got their UEFA Champions League campaign back on track with a surprising 2-0 win against Bayern Munich on Tuesday. The Gunners beat Manchester United 3-0 in their last home league match, and beat Watford by the same score-line last Saturday.

Arsenal are in great form which is all the more surprising with some key players missing. Danny Welbeck (knee), Jack Wilshere (ankle) and Tomas Rosicky (knee) all remain sidelined, while Aaron Ramsey picked up a hamstring injury against Bayern and is facing a spell out of action. These games are often tight, and both will be absolutely desperate for the three points for different reasons. Arsenal will be keen to move top of the league, meanwhile 9th placed Everton will be keen to move nearer to the top four.

Key Stats:

- Arsenal have lost only one of their last 16 Barclays Premier League meetings with Everton (W9 D6).
- However, the Toffees have lost only one of their last six BPL matches versus Arsenal with four of these fixtures ending in a draw (W1 L1).
- Arsenal’s joint Barclays Premier League record win (7-0) came against Everton; this was at Highbury in May 2005.


Liverpool vs. Southampton

Jurgen Klopp remains unbeaten as Liverpool boss, but there’s no doubt in our minds that he wants that first win sooner rather than later. An away draw at Spurs last weekend was followed up with a subdued 1-1 draw with Russian side Rubin Kazan in midweek in the Europa League.

Southampton’s 3-1 win at Chelsea in Match-week 8 was their first BPL away win since February 7th, ending a 10-match away winless streak (L6 D4). The Saints will be buoyed by this and will fancy their chances in recording another away win this weekend.

Pundits assumed that Klopp’s appointment would bring the most out of the Liverpool players, and this appeared the case in terms of work rate at least. The Reds ran 116 km in their first match under Jurgen Klopp last weekend – further than they had run in any single Barclays Premier League fixture since the start of 2013-14. They will really need to put in a shift to take maximum points from this game.

Key Stats:

-Liverpool have enjoyed three Barclays Premier League wins in a row over Southampton, conceding only one goal in the process – that being scored by Nathaniel Clyne, who of course now plays for Liverpool.
- Just three of Southampton top scorer Graziano Pellè’s 17 Barclays Premier League goals have come away from home (18%).
- Pellè (5) has scored or assisted as many goals in his last four Barclays Premier League appearances as he did in his previous 11 in the competition.


Manchester United vs. Manchester City

This game is one of the most eagerly-anticipated games of any season and with both pushing for top-spot this game has even more significance. Manchester United and Manchester City must switch their focus from the Champions League to the Premier League when they meet at Old Trafford on Sunday in a derby that Louis van Gaal says will show whether United are “true title contenders”.

United face City after laboring to a 1-1 draw with CSKA Moscow in the cold Russian capital on Wednesday while City make the short trip across town basking in the glow of their late 2-1 home win over Sevilla. City clinched the win in the dying minutes of the game thanks to a strike from Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian has been a terrific asset since his big-money switch from Wolfsburg in the summer.

Manchester City have won six of their last eight Manchester derbies in league competition (L2). Prior to this run, Man City had won just six of their previous 42 derby matches versus Man United. This shows how City have grown in recent years and their fans will certainly fancy their chances going into this one, especially with Van Gaal’s men having made the long trip home from Russia to contend with.

Key Stats:

- Wayne Rooney has scored 11 goals in Manchester derbies (all comps); more than any other player in this fixture.
- Rooney is 30 years old on the day before this match – no player has scored as many Barclays Premier League goals as he has by the age of 30 (187).
- Man United have won 17 of their 23 Barclays Premier League home matches under Louis van Gaal (74%), conceding only 16 goals (D3 L3).


West Ham vs. Chelsea

Slaven Bilic's West Ham have been a surprise success story on the road this season, winning four and drawing the other of their five Barclays Premier League matches away from home in 2015-16 - a run that includes victories at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.

However, results on their travels contrast sharply with those in front of their own fans, with just four points taken from as many outings. In the club's last season before their move to the Olympic Stadium, it is hardly the send-off the West Ham faithful would have wanted for the famous old Boleyn Ground and Bilic is keen to turn things around.

Chelsea have, of course, been another of this season’s surprise packages, but for all the wrong reasons. After cruising to the title by eight points last year, Chelsea have struggled in the start of their defense this time around with just three wins from the first nine matches. Jose Mourinho continues to be without goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois (knee) and Branislav Ivanovic (hamstring), while Loic Remy and Pedro (knocks) are doubtful.

Recent history is not on West Ham's side, however, as they have won just one of their last 18 BPL meetings with Chelsea. Bilic will be without defender Winston Reid (back), while on-loan winger Victor Moses is ineligible to face his parent club.

Key Stats:

-West Ham United have won only one of their last 18 Barclays Premier League London derbies against Chelsea (W1 D3 L14).
- Chelsea have not conceded a single goal in any of their last five Barclays Premier League matches against the Hammers; last conceding in a 1-3 defeat in Dec 2012.
- West Ham have scored with a league-high 22% of their shots this season in the Barclays Premier League while only Manchester City (24) have scored more goals than the Hammers (20).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

While Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the marquee name in the Breeders’ Cup, there is another highly regarded horse that many casual sports fans may have never heard of, and he may end up one of the shortest priced favorites during the two-day event.

Golden Horn is ranked second behind the Triple Crown winner in the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings and will be the betting favorite for the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). The colt is currently the 2-3 wagering favorite in early betting.

The colt has won seven of his eight career starts, all on turf, including four Grade 1 victories. The colt won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamp in his last start.

His lone loss came in the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York in August where he was beaten a neck by Arabian Queen.

The colt is trained by John Gosden who has won four Breeders’ Cup races, three turf races and the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Raven’s Pass in 2008, which was run over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita.

Flintshire is the current second choice in early wagering but his connections have opted to run him in the Japan Cup (G1).

That leaves Big Blue Kitten the second choice, currently at 8-1. The Chad Brown trainee won the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Innovational (G1) at Belmont Park in his last outing. Last year Brown opted for the Canadian International (G1) instead of the Turf and he ran second. In 2013, the son of Kitten’s Joy ran eighth in the Turf.

Brown has won five Breeders’ Cup races in his career, all on turf, and three of those came last year. He saddled Bobby’s Kitten to win the Turf Sprint, Dayatthespa in the Filly & Mare Turf and Lady Eli in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The other U.S. based runner that has a shot is The Pizza Man, who won the Arlington Million (G1) in August at Arlington Park. His final prep was the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) over the Keeneland turf where he was beaten a neck by Grand Arch. His current price is 10-1.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Early Odds:

Golden Horn 2-3
Flintshire 5-2
Big Blue Kitten 8-1
Free Eagle 10-1
Postponed 10-1
The Pizza Man 10-1
Eagle Top 12-1
Highland Reel 12-1
Imagining 25-1
Red Rifle 25-1
Slumber 25-1
Twilight Eclipse 25-1
War Dancer 40-1

Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 OClm $40,000N2X (12:55 ET)
#4 Scat Away 3-1
#7 Lakeside Sunset 5-2
#3 Awesome News 5-1
#5 Irish Whisper 4-1

Analysis: Scat Away stalked the early pace, came with a five wide run and finished up well for the runner up spot last out, unable to catch the winner over a racing strip that was kind to horses on or near the lead that day. Two back our top pick was beaten just a head by Uncle Southern, who came back to win again at the same level on Sept. 27, and our top pick was neck behind another repeat winner in Sacred Success three back. Looks as if she should get some pace to run at here.

Lakeside Sunset was beaten a length by our top pick last out in a third place finish. She caught tough fields two and three back on turf and has not sprinted over a fast main tack since running second in the state bred Bouwerie back in May. She fits and if the track starts off wet this afternoon that would suit her.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 4,7 / 3,4,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 The English Channel (4:13 ET)
#2 Vision Perfect 4-1
#4 Nonna's Boy 7-2
#9 A Lot 3-1
#1 Offering Plan 8-1

Analysis: Vision Perfect set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish in the Hill Prince (G3) over soft ground going nine furlongs. The cut back to a mile should suit as he won the Awad here last fall at this distance. He should get a good tracking trip on or sitting just off the pace.

Nonna's Boy set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out in the Saranac (G3) at the Spa. He took the field gate to wire two back to win the Lamplighter at Monmouth Park for his first stakes win in his turf debut. He gets a jock upgrade to Johnny V and fits her with his best.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,9
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2,4,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #6 Excellent Royale 12-1
R5: #3 The Lost Tigress 8-1
R6: #5 Nabeelah 15-1
R7: #1 Offering Plan 8-1
R8: #8 Where’s the Risk 10-1
R8 #10 Weekend Score 8-1
R9: #4 Aquarius 12-1

Good luck today!