Sunday 10/2/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, October 2

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-89 ATS (-43.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, October 2

9:30 AM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
NY Jets are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. TAMPA BAY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Dallas is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Dallas

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO
New Orleans is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sun – Oct. 2

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis: 18-5 OVER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Jacksonville: 66-91 ATS after playing a game at home

Cleveland at Washington, 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland: 9-1 OVER in the first month of the season
Washington: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 1-6 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog
New England: 27-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

Seattle at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Seattle: 36-19 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 37-62 ATS off a road loss

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS vs. mistake prone teams – 60+ penalty yards per game

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 8-24 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Chicago: 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS against conference opponents
Houston: 12-3 ATS as a favorite

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-16 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents
Baltimore: 29-14 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Denver at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Denver: 18-36 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tampa Bay: 18-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

Dallas at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games

New Orleans at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 17-5 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Los Angeles at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 75-105 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 31-14 ATS in home games off a non-conference game

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 21-38 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7


Mon – Oct. 3

NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 73-41 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS in games played on turf

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, October 2

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Game 275-276
October 2, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.544
Pittsburgh
138.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+5 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Arizona

Game 273-274
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.084
Arizona
138.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-7 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ San Diego

Game 271-272
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
128.548
San Diego
129.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+4 1/2); Over

Dallas @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.249
San Francisco
125.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

Denver @ Tampa Bay

Game 267-268
October 2, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
139.990
Tampa Bay
128.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 11 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Oakland @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.745
Baltimore
130.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 263-264
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
126.618
Houston
130.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Chicago

Game 261-262
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.105
Chicago
126.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under

Carolina @ Atlanta

Game 259-260
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
134.392
Atlanta
135.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3 1/2); Over

Seattle @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.504
NY Jets
133.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 255-256
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.832
New England
142.907
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 4 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-4 1/2); N/A

Cleveland @ Washington

Game 253-254
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.502
Washington
131.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 251-252
October 2, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.194
Jacksonville
126.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-2 1/2); Under


Monday, October 3

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Game 277-278
October 3, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.564
Minnesota
137.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sparks (26-8) at Sky (18-16)

Date: October 02, 2016 3:00 PM EDT

In the first game of the WNBA playoff semifinals between the Los Angeles Sparks and the Chicago Sky, the Sparks' superstars -- two-time league Most Valuable Player Candace Parker and this year's MVP Nneka Ogwumike -- were too much to handle and Los Angeles romped to a 20-point win.

But in Game 2 on Friday, it was the Sparks' role players, and specifically super-sixth-woman Jantel Lavender, who burned Chicago in a 99-84 victory.

The Sky have one more chance to keep their season alive, as the scene shifts from Southern California to the Chicago suburb of Rosemont, Ill., and Allstate Arena on Sunday afternoon for Game 3 of the best-of-five series.

For the depleted Sky -- who have been without 2015 MVP Elena Delle Donne for eight straight games including its three playoff contests -- it's a matter of finding their stride for long enough to counter Los Angeles' talented wave after wave of clutch performances.

Lavender was on target on Friday, hitting her first nine shots and 10 of her 11 attempts from the floor. Most of her damage was from outside, as the Sky tried to pack the lane to limit the touches by Parker and Ogwumike.

That strategy kept the Sparks' two frontcourt stars to a combined 38 points, 19 less than in Game 1, but it wasn't near enough to keep the game close or produce a win for Chicago.

"(Chicago) just kept leaving me open, so I was just shooting it," Lavender said. "I thought about going back to the basket, but that high-post shot was going in tonight. When I'm open, I'm shooting it, and tonight was a good night."

Lavender has excelled off the bench for Los Angeles, and leads the Sparks' second-unit in performance and attitude.

"Jantel could be a starter for us and most teams in this league," Sparks coach Brian Agler said. "We don't drop off when she's in the game."

Parker set the tone for the Sparks in the early going with eight points, six rebounds and three assists in the first quarter. She either scored or assisted on Los Angeles' first five baskets. She's had double-doubles in the first two games of the series and on Friday was two assists away for her first career triple-double.

Down 65-44 midway through the third quarter on Friday, the Sky forged a 14-3 run to get back to within 10 points of the lead. That effort sapped Chicago, which missed its final seven shots of the period, and Los Angeles stepped on the gas, pulling away to lead 78-59 with a quarter to play.

Six players scored in double figures for the Sky in Game 2, led by reserves Clarissa Dos Santos with 15 points and Jamierra Faulkner with 14.

Los Angeles has now won all five games between the two teams this season, including two on the Sky's home floor when Chicago had Delle Donne in the lineup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Future Odds

Odds to Win 2016 WNBA Finals (10/31/16)

Team Odds

Minnesota Lynx 7/5
Los Angeles Sparks 11/5
New York Liberty 6/1
Chicago Sky 10/1
Atlanta Dream 14/1
Phoenix Mercury 15/1
Indiana Fever 15/1
Seattle Storm 30/1

How To Bet WNBA Futures

The “Odds to Win” wager in soccer is also commonly referred to as a future wager. Bettors must correctly select a team to win an event that takes place a later time. The money wagered will be tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. The future odds are normally updated on a weekly basis and wagers can be placed throughout the season.

To figure out your Win Amount, take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered. Ex. Chicago Sky (10/1) to win the championship. Chicago is listed as an 10/1 betting choice to win the WNBA Championship. If you wager $100 on Chicago to win it all and they capture the championship, then you would win $1000 (10 ÷ 1 x 100). You would collect $1100, which includes your win and stake ($100).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lynx (28-6) at Mercury (16-18)

Date: October 02, 2016 5:00 PM EDT

The Minnesota Lynx can take their familiar place in the WNBA Finals with one more win over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of their semifinal series Sunday night at U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix, Ariz.

Top-seeded Minnesota holds a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series after winning each of the first two games by double digits.

The Lynx, who won WNBA titles in 2011, 2013 and 2015, can advance to the finals for the fifth time in six years. They have an opportunity to join the defunct Houston Comets as the only teams in league history to win four championships.

"It's a team that's experienced in trying to close out a team on the road," Minnesota head coach Cheryl Reeve said. " ... Our mindset is to win Game 3."

Eighth-seeded Phoenix will try to stave off elimination against a Minnesota team that went 13-4 on the road during the regular season. The Mercury is trying to win its second championship in three years and its fourth since 2007.

Phoenix was on a roll before running into Minnesota. The Mercury had won four in a row and five of six, including road wins over the fifth-seeded Indiana Fever and the third-seeded New York Liberty in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Minnesota, which went 28-6 during the regular season and swept the season series against Phoenix, has proven to be a much more daunting opponent.

After enjoying 10 days off with a double-bye through the first and second rounds of the playoffs, the Lynx cruised to a 113-95 victory over the Mercury in Game 1 of the series and posted a 96-86 victory in Game 2.

Maya Moore scored 31 points in the first game and 26 points in the second. After making 12 of 19 field goal attempts in Game 1, she was held to 6-of-18 shooting in Game 2.

Seven-time WNBA All-Star Diana Taurasi has been sensational for Phoenix, scoring 25 points in the first game and 31 points in the second game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 15
By David Schwab

Action in Week 14 got underway last Friday with Ottawa getting past Toronto 29-12 as a 5 ½-point home favorite in a key matchup for playoff position in the East Division. Edmonton bounced back from a bad loss last week with a 27-23 victory against West Division rival British Columbia as a slight 1 ½-point favorite at home in the backend of Friday’s double-header.

In Saturday’s CFL action, the biggest game of the week ended with Calgary beating Winnipeg 36-34 as a 9 ½-point home favorite to extend its straight-up winning streak to 10 games while ending the Blue Bombers’ impressive run at seven games. Saskatchewan won for the second week in a row by taking down Hamilton 20-18 as 5 ½-point home underdogs to close out Week 14. The following is a look at all four matchups this weekend in the CFL.

Sunday, Oct. 2
Toronto Argonauts (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 49

Game Overview

Toronto’s loss to Ottawa last week was its sixth setback both SU and ATS in its last seven games and it now has to be concerned about even making the playoffs this season with Edmonton moving in position to be a crossover team from the West. A change at quarterback to newly acquired Drew Willy in place of an ineffective Dan LeFevour did not provide the necessary spark against the RedBlacks and an injured Ricky Ray (ribs) is still a few weeks away from returning to the lineup.

The Alouettes are coming off a bye, but with Saskatchewan winning its last two games, they are in position to be considered the worst team in the CFL right now. Montreal has averaged 20.8 points a game this season and it has not scored more than 18 points in three of the four games in its current four-game SU losing streak. It has only covered a spread twice in its last seven outings.

Betting Trends

Toronto won the first meeting this season 30-17 in late July as a 4 ½-point home favorite, but Montreal still has the slight 3-2 edge both SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The total went OVER 46 in that first game after staying UNDER in the previous six meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 15 CFL

Toronto (5-8) @ Montreal (3-9)– Argos lost six of last seven games after a 4-2 start; they lost three in row on road, by 13-17-17 points. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Montreal is 1-5 at home this year with only win over Saskatchewan. Teams split last 14 series games; Argonauts (-4.5) won first meeting this year 30-17 July 25. Argos won five of last six visits here, in series where home team lost 10 of last 12 meetings. Toronto Under is 13-3 in last 16 series games. Alouettes covered once in their last nine home games.

Week 15 CFL games

— Underdogs*31-22-1, home teams 22-33-2 vs spread…….Over: 26-29-2

—*Toronto Argonauts @ Montreal Alouettes (-3, 49)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 15 CFL

Toronto (5-8) @ Montreal (3-9)– Argos lost six of last seven games after a 4-2 start; they lost three in row on road, by 13-17-17 points. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Montreal is 1-5 at home this year with only win over Saskatchewan. Teams split last 14 series games; Argonauts (-4.5) won first meeting this year 30-17 July 25. Argos won five of last six visits here, in series where home team lost 10 of last 12 meetings. Toronto Under is 13-3 in last 16 series games. Alouettes covered once in their last nine home games.

Week 15 CFL games

— Underdogs*31-22-1, home teams 22-33-2 vs spread…….Over: 26-29-2

—*Toronto Argonauts @ Montreal Alouettes (-3, 49)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Toronto Argonauts (5-8) at Montreal Alouettes (3-9)
Sunday, October 2, 2016 1:00 PM
Percival Molson Memorial Stadium1 - Montreal, QC

In this CFL pick preview, the Toronto Argonauts travel to Montreal, QC to play the Alouettes of Montreal in Percival Molson Memorial Stadium1 at 1:00 PM on Sunday, October 2, 2016.

Montreal is the favorite in this matchup, laying -3.0 to win 100 here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 49.0.

On the money line, Toronto is 124 while Montreal is -140.

About the Toronto Argonauts

The Toronto Argonauts enter this game with a 5-8 record, including an 3-3 record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Argonauts AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 5-8. On the road, as is the case today, Toronto is 3-3 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Argonauts games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 6 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 6 occasion. On the road, Toronto games have gone 2-4 respectively.

VISITING TEAM SNAPSHOT
Toronto Argonauts Stats & Trends
* 5-8 Straight Up this season
* 3-3 on the road
* 5-8 Against the Spread this season
* 3-3 ATS on the road
* 6-6 Over/Under
* 23.9 Average Points Scored
* 29.3 Average Points Allowed


About the Montreal Alouettes

The Montreal Alouettes enter this game with a 3-9 record, including an - record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Alouettes AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 4-6. When playing here at home, as is the case today, Montreal is 1-3 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Alouettes games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 5 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 7 occasion. Here in Montreal, games have gone 2-4 respectively.
HOME TEAM SNAPSHOT
Montreal Alouettes Stats & Trends
* 3-9 Straight Up this season
* 1-5 at home
* 4-6 Against the Spread this season
* 1-3 ATS at home
* 5-7 Over/Under
* 20.8 Average Points Scored
* 24.6 Average Points Allowed

Prior Games Between the Argonauts and the Alouettes
Date Away Score Home Score Line Total
July 25, 2016 Montreal 17 Toronto 30 -5.5 46.0
October 23, 2015 Montreal 34 Toronto 2 -7.0 50.0
October 12, 2015 Toronto 25 Montreal 17 2.5 52.5
November 2, 2014 Toronto 14 Montreal 17 -2.0 50.0
October 18, 2014 Montreal 20 Toronto 12 -4.5 51.5

The Predicted Final Score of this game is Montreal Alouettes 27 - Toronto Argonauts 23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting the fave has been the play in NFL London games

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 as the NFL's International Series contines with its first of three games in London, England this season and with the line currently Bills -2.5, bettors should make note as the fave has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the tenth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England and is the fourth consecutive year the Jags have hopped across the pond. The New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams play at the first game at Twickenham Stadium in Week 7, while Washington will face the Cincinnati Bengals back at Wembley in Week 8.

There are a couple of trends through the first 14 games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Colts-Jags game this weekend.

The favorite covered the spread in two of the three games in England last season and, as previously mentioned, is 9-3 ATS (75 percent) in the last 12 games. Faves are 9-5 ATS all-time in 14 games played in England.

Last season, the Jags beat the Bills 34-31, covering as 4.5-point pups, while the New York Jets topped the Miami Dolphins 27-14 as 2.5-point faves and the Kansas City Chiefs thumped the Detroit Lions 45-10 as 3-point faves.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 8-6 (57.1 percent) in the 14 games and the over has cashed in five of the past seven games across the Atlantic.

The total in this weekend's matchup opened is currently 49.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends To Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence

October is a great month for sports fans alike with the MLB playoffs and the start of the NBA season. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during Halloween’s month.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October. All we extracted from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer.

Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: If there is one aspect you can count on this month, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers covering spreads at home. The Steelers have annually begun to hit their stride in October and particularly so at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 34-15 ATS and have Kansas City (10/2), the Jets (10/9) and New England (10/23) in the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Good): Another high quality squad this loves home cookin' this month is Cincinnati, who is 19-10 against the oddsmakers. Too bad this year's schedule has so many road games with only Cleveland on the Oct. 23rd paying a visit.

Keep an eye on (Bad): For underperforming teams at home we find three that fit the bill. Chicago (18-29 ATS) is no surprise and neither is Jacksonville (14-23 ATS), but Seattle (16-26 ATS) with the 12th man certainly is.

The Bears have Detroit to start the month, the Jaguars in the middle of the month and Minnesota on Halloween.

Jacksonville justifiably gives up a home game for London trip and only has Oakland on the 23rd. The Seahawks have three away games and a bye, which means only Atlanta on the 16th are on Coffee Town.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): With the defending NFC champions Carolina off to a slow start, they will look to enhance 26-15 ATS road record against division foes Atlanta (10/2) and New Orleans (10/16).

The New York Giants always had a solid reputation at road warriors under former coach Tom Coughlin. The G-Men will be tested in back to back trips against Minnesota (10/3) and Green Bay (10/9) just six days apart.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona will be challenged to improve pathetic 14-27 ATS mark this month, playing on first Thursday game at San Francisco and the day before Halloween in a NFC title tilt rematch at Carolina.

Cincinnati is 20-34 ATS away from home and its arduous early season slate continues with consecutive contests at Dallas and at New England beginning Oct.9th.

Seattle is only 19-35 ATS away from the Northwest this month and has a trio of sojourns to New Jersey (Jets) to start October and finishes things in the Arizona desert and in the bayou of Louisiana.

Tampa Bay has a rare Monday matchup at Carolina on the 10th and 13 days later in Frisco, and will be trying to better 16-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The team from St. Louis is a sharp 21-11 handing out points and will try and see if that act continues in L.A. Only contest with Buffalo (10/9) might fit the bill.

San Francisco is 39-23 ATS, with nearly all of that accomplished with far better teams than this one. Possibly a date with Tampa Bay (10/23) could make this active angle.

Bad: The Bears are stinky 11-23 ATS as favorites and they catch Jacksonville (10/16) two weeks after their London trip.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With two games against New England this month, you know the Bills will not be favored in those, but assuredly they could better 20-30 ATS mark against the Niners at home on the 16th.

Jacksonville is another club not suited for handing out points, with only a 10-19 spread record. The Raiders in north Florida on the 23rd of the month is only possibility for winner.

Tampa Bay is none too pretty 16-26 ATS doling out digits. Contests at San Francisco and Oakland are only two games of the month where they could be favored.

We start this month not exactly sure what the status of Russell Wilson will be, but we do know Seattle is sickly 15-28 ATS as favored outfit.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Pittsburgh is remarkable 23-9 ATS this month in the role, but the only slightly conceivable chance they might be when New England and Tom Brady visit on the 23rd.

Keep an eye on (Good): Speaking of the Patriots, they are pretty good road dogs also at 22-14 ATS. They could be the pooch at the aforementioned Steelers. Somebody has to be, right?

Chicago is 28-17 ATS when receiving points and they will get a lot of practice this month to better that record, because the only opportunity they could be favored in five games is home against Jacksonville (10/16).

Mentioned the Giants as a quality road outfit and they have been even better as underdogs (23-13 ATS) and will be in that role in the Midwest at the Vikings and Packers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): San Francisco will be a underdog in first three games of the month against Dallas, Arizona and at Buffalo. The Tampa Bay tilt on the 23rd in Santa Clara is too be determined and nobody knows how the Niners will matchup against a bye week. Either way, the Niners are still 13-24 ATS.

We forget how bad Seattle used to be as 21-32 ATS record shows. However, only chance the Seahawks will be getting points is at Arizona (10/23).

DIVISION

Bad: Are the 49ers really 2-14 ATS against the NFC West in October? Yes they are and they will be home to Arizona (10/6).

In the same category is Cincinnati at 12-29 ATS and they will welcome Cleveland to the Queen City in the first of two battles of Ohio.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New Orleans has not been a good home division team for a numbers of seasons and is only 13-24 ATS in that situation against any NFC South foes. They have the Panthers in town on the 16th.

Indianapolis has not seen much success beating spreads versus AFC South foes at 15-23 ATS. Not much help coming for the Colts as they will playing all three opponents away from home, the first in London against Jacksonville.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
By Micah Roberts

Hello to our friends in London!

The NFL once again sends you their tired and weak with the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars for the first of three London NFL games this season. But this is actually London's home team, kind of. It's their club at least one game a year through an agreement that expires in 2021. Soon they'll probably have hooligans protecting the club like a proper English football firm.

The best thing about the London NFL games is they get to legally bet at bet shops all around Wembley Stadium. And the fans no longer cheer the loudest when an extra-point or field goal is score.

Here in the states the Colts opened as 1-point favorites over London's Jaguars and Indianapolis money has pushed Indianapolis to -2.5 The total opened at 49.5 and its down to 49 as of Friday afternoon.

William Hill sports books reported they have 80 percent of the cash on the Colts. After six straight Colts wins over Jacksonville, the Jags finally won in December, 51-16. The Jags covered both games last season and an 0-5 ATS streak against them..

Washington has a couple different numbers in Las Vegas for their home game against the Cleveland Browns, who showed some fight last week in their overtime loss at Miami. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Redskins -9 and on Friday they went to -7.5. That's the low number. The high number is -9.5 at Aliante. Most everyone is is -8 or -8.5. The total jumped from 45.5 to 46.5 on Wednesday. William Hill Has 90 percent of the cash on Cleveland taking the points.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are both 'questionable' for the New England home game against Buffalo. Both were limited in practice and who starts will be a game time decision. Most books still don't have the game on the board as they await for concrete information. CG Technology books have the Patriots -6 (-115) and Station Casinos has them -6.5. Boyd Gaming has the only total in town posted at 43.

The Westgate opened Seattle -3 (EV) for its road game at the New York Jets. It went to -2.5 (flat) quickly and has been steady. The total has dropped from 41.5 to 40. The Seahawks offense finally came to life last week with a 37-18 win against the 49ers while the Jets come of an awful turnover infested game at Kansas City. After the public parlay bettors all stayed from their Seahawks last week, they're all over them this week.

The Carolina Panthers opened at -3.5 and are now 3 (flat) for their game at Atlanta. Cam Newton has been beat up in two losses to the Denver and Minnesota defenses. The Falcons give up 30 points a game. The total has moved up from 50 to 50.5.

Detroit opened as 2.5-point favorites at Chicago and it moved to -2.5 on Monday where it stayed until Wednesday when it moved when the Westgate went to -3 (EV). They're 3 (flat) now, while the total has gone from 47 to 47.5 with a brief stop at 48. The Lions have swept the Bears the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-3 and still banged up using back-up Brian Hoyer at quarterback.

The Houston Texans don't have All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt and apparently there are a few bettors and bookmakers that think his value to the number is worth 1.5-points. On Sunday night, Houston opened as a 6.5-point home favorite against Tennessee. On Tuesday the number dropped to -5.5 and on Thursday it dropped from -5 to -4.5. The total is consistent at 40.5.

Baltimore has won and covered all three of their games, but are only -3.5 at home against Oakland. A little bit of money came in on the Raiders so the Ravens are now -3.5 (EV). The total hasn't moved off 46.5

The Denver Broncos are also a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS, but they're rapidly increased rating makes them -3 at Tampa Bay. Bettors pushed the number from an opener of -2.5 to -3 real quick on Sunday when the number opened. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

Dallas opened -3 at San Francisco and settled at -2 on Thursday. The total has dropped from 46 to 45.

San Diego opened as 3.5-point home favorites over New Orleans, and got as high as -4.5, but settled at -4 on Wednesday. The total shot up from 52 to 53.5 after the Saints Monday night performance.

Arizona opened as 9-point favorite over Los Angeles on Sunday night bettors jumped on the 'dog Monday and on Wednesday the number moved to -8. The total opened 43.5 and sits at 43.

Pittsburgh opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over Kansas City and boosted the number to -6 Monday. It got as low as -4.5 on Thursday before settling at -5. The total has gone from 47.5 to 47.

The top public parlay plays of the week so far are the Broncos, Seahawks, Cowboys and Lions. The bettors got buried last week with their parlays so we'll how strong and confident they come to the window this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David

Week 3 Recap

The ‘over’ posted a 9-7 record last weekend and most of the results were never in doubt. Atlanta, Washington and Denver have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their first three games while Houston is the only team to watch the the ‘under’ cash in all of its games. Through three weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 25-22-1

Quick Observations

-- Total Talk followers have now seen the “Thursday Night” angle start 2-0 this season with the New England-Buffalo matchup pending in Week 4.

-- Houston was shutout last Thursday at New England, the second blanking of this season. The Rams earned the first bagel in Week 1 to San Francisco (28-0) and rebounded in Week 2 with a 9-3 win over Seattle, which is rare. In the previous five seasons, teams off shutouts were 7-14, now 8-14 the L.A. victory. From a total perspective, they averaged just 16.6 points per game and that trend continued with the Rams only scoring nine points.

-- Sticking with shutouts, the 49ers have allowed a combined 947 yards on defense and 83 points since beating Los Angeles 28-0 in the Monday Night opener.

-- There have been two totals listed in the thirties this season, both easy ‘under’ winners. Five totals have closed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those contests.

-- Still early to get a solid sample size but halftime bettors have watched the Vikings and Titans go ‘under’ in the 1st half in each of their first three games, while the Buccaneers and Redskins have been great second-half ‘over’ (3-0) bets.

Off to London

Indianapolis and Jacksonville will meet at Wembley Stadium this Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England in the first of four international games set for the regular season. This will be the 15th game played in London and total bettors have seen a 7-7 stalemate through the first 14 games.

It should be noted that Jacksonville has played in this matchup three times and the ‘over’ has connected in all three with an average score of 55 combined points per game. The Jaguars are 1-2 and the lone win came last year when they outlasted the Bills 34-31 in a game that saw three defensive scores.

The total on this game is hovering between 49 and 50 points, which seems a tad high knowing the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 encounters between the pair. However, Jacksonville did blast Indianapolis 51-16 last season at home but that game was also helped with three scores from non-defensive units.

West to East

My colleague Kevin Rogers wrote a piece this summer on Time Zone Trends in the NFL and how East and West coast teams fared with travel to opposite coasts. It’s a solid read that points out angles to follow from last season, which included a quick note on total results.

In the 2015 regular season, West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and that tendency has carried over this fall with three straight wins to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44 ½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40 ½

Make a note that we included Arizona as a West Coast team along with Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco and the newbie – Los Angeles.

Week 4 has two games that fit the above situation:
Oakland at Baltimore
Seattle at N.Y. Jets

Divisional Action

We’ve got six divisional games set for Week 4 and it appears the familiarity angle has helped the offensive units early in the season with the ‘over’ going 9-4 in the first 13 divisional games played this season.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: (See Above)

Buffalo at New England: Due to the quarterback situation with the Patriots, no early total was posted on this game but does it matter? New England has averaged 27 PPG with backups and Buffalo’s total defense is ranked 23rd. What should be noted is that these teams have played to a pair of shootouts in the last two meetings from Buffalo (37-22, 40-32) while the last two encounters from Foxboro were low-scoring affairs (17-9, 20-13). As of Friday evening, a few shops were holding anywhere between 43 and 44 on this total.

Carolina at Atlanta: Does this matchup really warrant a total in the fifties? When you look at Atlanta’s offensive (34.7 PPG) and defensive (30.3 PPG) scoring numbers, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. However, the low side has hit in six straight in this series and the Falcons have been held to 12 PPG during this low-scoring stretch versus the Panthers.

Detroit at Chicago: The number on this game jumped from 46 to 47 ½ and both clubs have been plagued with key injuries to defensive starters. If you’re going to ride total trends in this series, then make a note that ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0 in the last four between the pair from Ford Field.

Tennessee at Houston: Tough total to handicap here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of points posted. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series yet the total (40 ½) is the lowest number posted in Week 4. The Texans held the Titans to six points in each of the two meetings last season but Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota played in neither of those meetings and for whatever reason, the former Oregon standout has played much better on the road in his young career.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The total has gone 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but three of the last four playing in the desert have seen the ‘over’ connect. Arizona has averaged 25 PPG during this stretch. Even though the Cardinals were held to 18 last week in their loss to the Bills, they put up more yards than Buffalo but turned the ball over five times.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ cash last Sunday and Monday night, the Bengals and Dolphins easily went ‘under’ (46 ½) their closing number this past Thursday. Including those results, bettors have seen the total go 5-5-1 through 11 primetime games.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Watching the Steelers only score three points last week was very surprising and I doubt will see that production again, especially with running back Le’Veon Bell returning to action this week. However this Kansas City defense is on fire right now and since allowing 21 first-half points to San Diego in Week 1, the Chiefs have surrendered just five field goals in 2 ½ games (10 quarters). This pair has met four times since 2011 and the ‘under’ cashed easily in every game (13-9, 16-13, 20-12, 23-13).

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The Giants and Vikings have both seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games and Minnesota could easily be 3-0 if its defense didn’t score twice in Week 1. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ team last season (12-4-1) and that trend has continued. The offense plays very slow, averaging 57.3 plays per game (ranked 29th) and their defense (295 YPG, 13.3 PPG) is ranked in the Top 5 in both yards and points. New York isn’t clicking on offense (21 PPG) right now and it’s TD-FG (6-5) ratio isn’t a good sign for ‘over’ bettors. These teams played outdoors in Minnesota last season and the Vikings routed the Giants 49-17 as the ‘over’ (45) easily cashed.

Fearless Predictions

Our teaser wager kept us in the black last week ($90) and kept the overall bankroll growing after three weeks ($280). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Baltimore 46 ½

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 40 ½

Best Team Total: Under Dallas 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Oakland-Baltimore 37 ½
Under Los Angeles-Arizona 52
Under Denver-Tampa Bay 52

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 4

1) N.Y. Jets +2.5 (661)
2) Denver -3 (592)
3) Carolina -3 (541)
4) New England -5.5 (502)
5) San Francisco +2.5 (560)

SuperContest Week 4 Matchups & Odds

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Miami (+7.5) 98 Cincinnati (-7.5) 98
Indianapolis (-2.5) 215 Jacksonville (+2.5) 289
Cleveland (+7.5) 362 Washington (-7.5) 150
Buffalo (+5.5) 142 New England (-5.5) 502
Seattle (-2.5) 140 N.Y. Jets (+2.5) 661
Carolina (-3) 541 Atlanta (+3) 230
Detroit (-3) 434 Chicago (+3) 204
Tennessee (+5) 246 Houston (-5) 279
Oakland (+3.5) 440 Baltimore (-3.5) 274
Denver (-3) 592 Tampa Bay (+3.) 396
Dallas (-2.5) 277 San Francisco (+2.5) 460
New Orleans (-4) 209 San Diego (+4) 191
Los Angeles (+8) 155 Arizona (-8) 292
Kansas City (+5.5) 270 Pittsburgh (-5.5) 381
N.Y. Giants (+4.5) 353 Minnesota (-4.5) 372


Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick Six - Week 4
By Kevin Rogers

Week 3 Record: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS

Review: The only favorite to come through last week was the Chiefs, who dominated the Jets as three-point favorites. The Lions managed a backdoor cover as 7 ½-point road underdogs at Green Bay after erasing a 31-3 deficit in a 31-24 loss. The Steelers and Bengals each lost in the favorite role, but the Redskins were able to rally to knock off the Giants as short underdogs.

Seahawks (-2 ½, 40) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Seahawks leave the west coast for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories for the first time. Seattle blasted San Francisco last Sunday, 37-18 after being held to 15 points in its first two games. Quarterback Russell Wilson left with a sprained left knee, but he is expected to play on Sunday. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest amount of points in the NFL with 37, 10 behind Philadelphia. However, the Seahawks have struggled on the road against AFC foes under Pete Carroll by posting a 3-9 SU and 3-7-2 ATS record since 2010.

New York
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

The Jets couldn’t get out of their own way last week at Kansas City by turning the ball over eight times, including six interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City cruised past New York, 24-3, as Fitzpatrick was picked off twice in the end zone. The Jets still own a solid 4-1 ATS record as an underdog during Todd Bowles’ tenure as head coach, including a home ‘dog victory over the Patriots last December. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004, as New York has lost each of the past two meetings to Seattle in 2008 and 2012.

Best Bet: New York +2 ½

Panthers (-3, 50) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The defending NFC champions have stumbled out of the gate with losses to the Broncos and Vikings through three games. Carolina managed 10 early points against Minnesota, but were held scoreless in the final three quarters of a 22-10 home defeat as six-point favorites. Quarterback Cam Newton has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions through three contests (5), as four of the interceptions came in the two defeats. The last time Carolina visited Atlanta in 2015, the Falcons snapped the Panthers’ 14-game winning streak in a 20-13 victory as seven-point underdogs.

Atlanta
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Falcons have been impressive the last two weeks by putting up a combined 80 points in road victories at Oakland and New Orleans. In Monday’s 45-32 triumph over the Saints, Atlanta’s running game shifted into high-gear with 217 yards on the ground, including three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman and 152 yards from Devonta Freeman. In spite of the win at New Orleans, the Falcons have struggled against division foes under Dan Quinn by compiling a 2-6 SU/ATS record the since the start of 2015. However, the Falcons have thrived in the role of an underdog by putting together a 7-2 ATS mark in nine games when receiving points.

Best Bet: Atlanta +3

Raiders at Ravens (-3 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Raiders’ defense has been eaten up through three games, allowing a league-worst 476 yards a contest and an average of 340 yards through the air. Oakland managed to hold Tennessee to 10 points in last Sunday’s 17-10 road victory, while causing three takeaways for its second consecutive 2-1 start. The Silver and Black closed as a short favorite in Week 3, but the Raiders have been terrific in the role of a road underdog in Jack Del Rio’s tenure by posting a 7-0 ATS mark. Oakland looks to beat Baltimore for the second straight season after knocking off the Ravens as six-point home ‘dogs last September, 37-33.

Baltimore
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Ravens weren’t expected to lead the AFC North following three weeks, but Baltimore has picked up three wins over teams that own a combined 1-8 record. John Harbaugh’s squad edged past Jacksonville last week, 19-17 as the Ravens have scored only four touchdowns this season, while kicking nine field goals. Baltimore finished last season at 0-6-2 ATS as a favorite, but have improved in that category this season by covering two of its first three when laying points. The Ravens have stepped up defensively by ranking second in yards allowed (254.3) and third in passing yards given up (168.3).

Best Bet: Baltimore -3 ½

Broncos (-3, 43) at Buccaneers – 4:05 PM EST

Denver
Record: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, winning each of their first three games. Denver took care of Cincinnati as a short road underdog last Sunday, 29-17 as Siemian threw a career-high four touchdown passes, including a pair of connections with Emmanuel Sanders. Since the start of last season, the Broncos have excelled as an underdog by going 8-0 ATS, but have compiled a 5-7-2 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is visiting Tampa Bay for the first time since 2004, as the Bucs covered as underdogs in losses in the Mile High City in 2008 and 2012.

Tampa Bay
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Buccaneers shot out of the gate with an impressive road victory over the Falcons as Jameis Winston threw four touchdown passes. However, Tampa Bay has taken a step back the last two weeks by falling to Arizona and Los Angeles, while allowing 77 points in those two defeats. Winston racked up a career-high 405 passing yards against the Rams, but the Bucs dropped to 0-3 in his three career games when putting up at least 300 yards. Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-6 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium, while cashing only once in the past five overall in the underdog role.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay +3

Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The Cowboys rebounded from a one-point opening week setback to the Giants to beat the Redskins and Bears the last two games. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass and ran for another in last Sunday night’s 31-17 blowout of Chicago to pick up their second home cover in the past nine opportunities at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season after going 1-1 SU/ATS in this situation in 2015. Dallas will be without big-play threat Dez Bryant as the wide receiver is sidelined with a knee injury.

San Francisco
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 400/1

The 49ers return home following consecutive road blowouts at Carolina and Seattle, as San Francisco’s lone victory this season came at home against Los Angeles in a 28-0 shutout. San Francisco’s defense has been sliced up the last two weeks by giving up 73 points to the Panthers and Seahawks, while dropping to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. The UNDER has been nearly automatic at Levi’s Stadium since the beginning of 2015, finishing UNDER the total in eight of the previous nine home contests.

Best Bet: San Francisco +2

Rams at Cardinals (-8, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Rams are surprisingly sitting atop the NFC West through three games alongside the Seahawks at 2-1. Technically, Los Angeles has the early tie-breaker advantage over Seattle thanks to a Week 2 home victory, but the Rams’ offense exploded in a 37-32 triumph at Tampa Bay last Sunday to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs. Running back Todd Gurley finally busted out by rushing for 85 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Case Keenum threw his first two touchdown passes of the season. The Rams have won and covered four consecutive games in the underdog role since Week 14 of last season, while knocking off the Cardinals as seven-point ‘dogs last October, 24-22 at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

It’s been a rough start for the defending NFC West champions, who have lost two of their first three games. The only good news from this 1-2 start is both defeats came to New England and Arizona, a pair of AFC foes. Arizona fell behind Buffalo last Sunday, 17-0 and never recovered in a 33-18 setback as five-point road favorites. Carson Palmer was intercepted four times in the loss, as the Cardinals’ quarterback was never picked off more than two times in a game in 2015. Palmer diced up the Rams’ defense last season by throwing for 352 and 356 yards, while Arizona owns a solid 7-1 mark at home off a loss since 2013.

Best Bet: Arizona -8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Odds: Week 4 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

That "new-thinking" Cleveland Browns front office that includes a former MLB "Moneyball" executive isn't off to a good start. Maybe the team's trade of the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft for a haul of draft picks from the Eagles will work out in the long run. But for now, it looks like a mega-bust with how good Carson Wentz has been in Philly. Yet the Browns didn't even have the North Dakota State QB among their Top 20 prospects. And now that Eagles' first-round pick next year might be middle-of-the-pack at best. How did relying on Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown work out?

Then came the news Thursday that electric but troubled receiver Josh Gordon decided to enter inpatient rehab. This was to be the final week of his suspension. There's pretty much no chance he will play this season or ever again in a Cleveland uniform. Just a shame as that guy was spectacular in 2014. I say the Browns' front office blew it on Gordon too because it has had several chances to trade him -- including back in training camp when he was reinstated to the NFL and told he had to serve only four more games of suspension. Several teams called Cleveland. Yet the Browns decided to get nothing for a guy who clearly has a drug problem. That's short-sighted.

Cleveland, which also remains without receiver Corey Coleman, the team's 2016 first-round pick, for at least a few more weeks due to injury, is +7.5 this week at Washington. This Gordon news makes it slightly more likely the "Factory of Sadness" finishes as the second 0-16 team in league history, although that's a long shot. Sportsbooks have a yes-only prop on that at +2000. At that price, it's worth a $100 bet. You can also get the Browns at +170 that they get the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft and no they don't at -250. I would certainly take yes there. Cleveland likely won't win this week as it also is probably without top cornerback Joe Haden, who was inactive Week 3 with a groin injury.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 4.

Titans at Texans (-4.5, 40.5): The biggest news in the NFL this week was that Houston star defensive end J.J. Watt had to have another back surgery for a disk problem and is done for the season. That's absolutely devastating news for the Texans, who were hoping to be the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their own stadium. Watt isn't just the best defensive player in the NFL -- an unprecedented three-time Defensive Player of the Year -- but arguably the most valuable non-quarterback in the league. Watt also had surgery in July to replace that herniated disk in his back and missed all of camp and the preseason. Some are asking if the team rushed him back for Week 1, but his recovery time was in that window. Watt had never missed a game in his career and had had 74.5 sacks in his first five seasons from 2011 to '15. Only Hall of Famer Reggie White had more (81). Watt is the first player with 20 sacks in two different seasons since sacks became official in 1982 (20.5 in 2012, 20.5 in 2014). I would be very worried about this game if you bet on Houston as those players have to be pretty down right now. This line has dropped from an open of 6.5. One more bit of Texans news: Coach Bill O'Brien is taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator George Godsey. The Texans are last in the NFL in red-zone success.

Cowboys at 49ers (+2, 45): The line and total have dropped a point, probably because it's unlikely that top Dallas receiver Dez Bryant will play. An MRI this week -- which Bryant originally skipped because he reportedly was scared to hear the results, earning him a fine -- showed a slight hairline fracture in his right knee. It's clearly not too bad as Bryant played through it Sunday night vs. the Bears, but he's expected out at least one week with it. Bryant has 11 catches (on 23 targets) for 150 yards and a TD. Assuming Bryant can't play Sunday, Brice Butler, who has one catch for 16 yards in three games, would move into the starting lineup. But it surely means rookie QB Dak Prescott will target Cole Beasley and tight end Jason Witten even more than he already has. The Niners are sticking with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback even though he's No. 30 in QB rating. Coach Chip Kelly said Colin Kaepernick wasn't perhaps physically ready yet after offseason surgery and missing the first few preseason games. In my mind, this is the toughest game on the board to handicap. Seems like a trap for Dallas but the Niners also stink.

Seahawks at Jets (+2.5, 40): Speaking of a trap, Seattle might be walking into one here; this has the lowest total on the board. It's one of those 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoffs, and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is battling through ankle and knee injuries. If I'm Pete Carroll, I sit him one week with the bye up next. But Wilson says there's "no doubt" he is playing Sunday. Mobility is a big part of Wilson's game, and it's hard to see how much he will have. Wilson said he will play with a knee brace, something he said he also did for a bit while playing at NC State. Meanwhile, tight end Jimmy Graham is questionable with a knee injury after not practicing Thursday. And guard Germain Ifedi, the team's first-round pick, should make his NFL debut and start on the right side. He has been out with an ankle injury. That Seattle O-Line needs all the help it can get. Sportsbooks offer a prop on how many interceptions Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has this week against that excellent Seattle defense. The "over/under" is 1, with the under a -160 favorite. He tied a franchise record with six picks last week vs. the Chiefs, also without a TD pass. Pro Football Focus gave Fitzpatrick the lowest grade it has ever handed out to a quarterback. I wish sportsbooks had this at 0.5 or 1.5 as it might push at 1, but I'd go over at +120.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)

Date: October 02, 2016 9:30 AM EDT

Despite throwing an interception and having a fumble returned for a touchdown, Andrew Luck delivered the Indianapolis Colts their first victory of the season last week.

Blake Bortles hasn't been able to overcome his mistakes for the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.

How the two young quarterbacks play Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London will be critical in a match-up of AFC South rivals that figures to be full of offense.

"It's just been such stupid things that have gone wrong that are easily correctable," Bortles said. "That's why, for me, I can't wait to get another opportunity to go play.

"I can't wait to get an opportunity to reach our expectations and play the kind of football we know we can play as an offense and score the points and move the ball that we know we can."

Bortles' start to the season has been puzzling considering the success he had a year ago.

Although he did lead the league with 18 interceptions, his 35 passing touchdowns tied for second in the NFL behind Tom Brady of New England and set a franchise record as Jacksonville tied with New Orleans for most pass plays of 20 yards or more with 72.

So far this season, the big plays have dried up and Bortles has made too many mistakes.

Through three games, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2014 draft has thrown five touchdowns with six interceptions and lost a fumble.

Bortles twice had opportunities to win games at home on the Jaguars' final drive of the game and failed, turning the ball over on downs against Green Bay in Week 1 and throwing an interception against Baltimore last week.

Jacksonville (0-3) is 26th in the league in offense (317.3 yards per game) and tied for 26th in scoring (18 points per game).

"These first three have all been difficult, but it's part of it," Bortles said. "You don't always start well; you don't always play well. There are 13 games left and a lot of football to go.

"I think any time you lose or any time you under-perform or anytime you had an opportunity and didn't capitalize on it, it's going to sting, and that's part of football."

Bortles' counterpart, Luck, hasn't missed a beat since returning from a rib injury that cost him nine games last season.

Luck again looks like one of the elite quarterbacks in the league with six passing touchdowns and two interceptions while going against Detroit, Denver and San Diego.

The Colts (1-2) were staring at another loss last week against the San Diego Chargers before the No. 1 pick from the 2012 draft found receiver T.Y. Hilton for a 63-yard touchdown with 1:17 remaining in the game.

"He's wired the right way," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said of Luck's ability to recover from bad plays and win games. "We talk all the time about moving on and you can't throw as bad as those plays are and how costly they are at times from a turnover standpoint, especially playing that position.

"Andrew's always been able to put those behind him, make the corrections and go back out and move on. I think in this game no matter what position that you play you have to be able to put good plays behind you as well as bad plays."

A return to form by Luck probably means trouble for the Jaguars. In six career games against them, he is 5-1 (having won his last five) with 12 total touchdowns and three interceptions.

In those five wins, Indianapolis is outscoring Jacksonville by a healthy 23.6 points per game, and Luck is completing 69.2 percent of his passes.

The Colts will likely need something close to Luck's best this week.

Indianapolis has faltered defensively and is 30th in the league, allowing 31.7 points per game. Only New Orleans and Tampa Bay have been worse so far this season.

Another thing to consider is Indianapolis will be playing in London for the first time, while the Jacksonville will be there for the fourth straight season.

Jaguars players who have previously been to London said the first year there can be especially brutal because of how different the trip is than any other on the schedule.

It's doubtful the Colts will allow that to be used as an excuse, but grogginess could be a factor.

"It's been pretty seamless for us and we've been able to focus as coaches and players on the task at hand and that's preparing for the ball game," Pagano said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Date: October 02, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

LANDOVER, Md. -- The Washington Redskins are heavy favorites to beat the winless Cleveland Browns on Sunday at FedEx Field. But do not tell that to them.

The Redskins earned a big victory over the New York Giants on Sunday, but remain in an early hole in the NFC East at 1-2. A loss to the Browns (0-3) would be a massive setback, especially with a difficult schedule looming late in the season.

"I just don't see it as a trap game," Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins said. "I don't see any game in the NFL as a trap game. "I mean, we're 1-2.

"What are we feeling comfortable about, I mean we have to win in the sense that we want to get to 2-2, and we got a lot to play for. We're at home. So, I think those words just don't even enter my, or our, vocabulary."

That's because the Browns, despite a rebuilding movement under first-year head coach Hue Jackson, are just a few plays away from being 2-1. That wasn't expected.

Cleveland was ahead 20-0 at home against Baltimore before losing two weeks ago. The Browns lost to Miami in overtime on the road last Sunday after missing three field goals.

Cleveland even was competitive for a time on the road against Philadelphia in the opener.

"You have to close out when you have to close out," Browns wide receiver Terelle Pryor said. "You can't make excuses when you lose. It's a good sign and a good feel for the team to keep on continuing and move forward because we're right there in each game.

"I feel like we can battle with anybody in the league. This is going to be a test also, going against the Redskins, and we look forward to it."

Pryor played quarterback and receiver against the Dolphins and finished with 204 yards of offense -- 144 receiving, 35 passing and 25 rushing. That gives Washington something to think about on defense.

Cleveland has used four quarterbacks this season, if you include Pryor's limited attempts. But with former Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (shoulder) and Josh McCown (shoulder) both out, they will have to start rookie Cody Kessler again.

Kessler made his NFL debut in the Miami game and struggled some. But he finished 21 for 33 for 244 yards and -- most important -- no bad fumbles or interceptions. It was a decent start.

Washington started the year 0-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas, and was facing a disastrous start attempting to defend its NFC East title.

But the Redskins held on late against the Giants with timely interceptions from rookie linebacker Su'a Cravens and second-year cornerback Quinton Dunbar.

But there were plenty of opportunities for them to lose that game, too.

The defense still struggled in coverage as Odell Beckham Jr. gashed them for 121 yards receiving. And the run defense has been a little better in recent weeks, but was exposed in the blowout loss to the Steelers, 38-16.

"I don't think we're in a position to overlook any team," wide receiver DeSean Jackson said.

Jackson has been a difficult matchup for all three of Washington's opponents, with five receptions for more than 25 yards.

But look out for second-year receiver Jamison Crowder, too, who is tied for the team lead with 16 receptions. He had a brilliant 55-yard touchdown on a tunnel screen against the Giants and caught another scoring pass against Dallas.

Crowder even set a career-high with a 50-yard punt return in the Giants game. He's become a dangerous playmaker.

"It would be selling him short to say he's a better player now than he was last year," Cousins said. "He was really good last year. I mean, he's just, he's a rookie, he's a fourth-round pick. We're trying to find out how he fits.

"We're thinking that Pierre (Garcon) and DeSean (Jackson) and Jordan (Reed) are going to be the guys that we get the ball to, and then suddenly he just starts showing up time and again in training camp last year and early in the season, and we started saying, 'Wow, we've got to get him more involved.'"