Sunday 1/4/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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GoDaddy Bowl

Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Toledo -3.5, Total: 68

Arkansas State will once again close out its season in Mobile, AL when it faces Toledo in Sunday's GoDaddy.com Bowl.

This will be the Red Wolves' fourth straight trip to the GoDaddy.com Bowl, as they are 2-1 (SU and ATS) in Mobile. Arkansas State QB Fredi Knighten leads a high-powered offense that averaged 44.0 PPG and 518.7 YPG over its final seven regular-season games.

The Rockets finished their regular season on a high note, winning two straight and four of five SU, including a 27-20 win over MAC East champion Bowling Green. Their offense was held below 400 yards in a game just once this season.

Sophomore RB Kareem Hunt rushed for 100+ yards in all nine of his games, including 148 rushing yards and three touchdowns against SEC East champion Missouri.

Although the Red Wolves are a miserable 0-11 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992, they are also 7-0 ATS on the road versus good offenses (5.9+ yards per play) over the past three years.

Each team has only one injury of concern, as Toledo DB Jordan Haden (abdominal) is expected to miss Sunday's game, while Arkansas State DB Charleston Girley (wrist) has been upgraded to probable.

Toledo is a top-notch rushing team with 247.3 YPG (17th in nation), but it also throws the ball adequately with 239.8 YPG (56th in FBS), leading to 34.4 PPG (30th in nation).

QB Logan Woodside (2,096 pass yards, 7.8 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has been up and down this season, but he was phenomenal in the regular-season finale at Eastern Michigan when he completed 14-of-18 passes for 323 yards (17.9 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT.

Only two Rockets players have at least 300 receiving yards this season, WRs Corey Jones (821 rec yards, 5 TD) and Alonzo Russell (721 rec yards, 8 TD). Jones has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in four of his past eight games, but Russell has topped 55 yards just once in the past seven contests, when he gained 93 yards on just two catches at EMU.

But this offense revolves around RB Kareem Hunt (1,360 rush yards, 7.9 YPC, 11 TD) who has caught only eight passes all season, but has rushed for an average of 151.1 yards per game. Hunt has carried the football 52 times in his past two contests and will likely get another monster workload to close out the season.

The Rockets have allowed 29.3 PPG this season (86th in FBS), due mostly to their horrible pass defense allowing 284 YPG on 7.6 YPA. But Toledo knows how to stuff the run, holding opponents to 120 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC.

Arkansas State is also a strong rushing team with 229.0 YPG (24th in FBS), while also passing for a respectable 248.2 YPG (51st in nation), leading to 36.1 PPG (22nd in FBS).

RB Michael Gordon (1,064 rush yards, 7.1 YPC, 13 TD in 10 games) is the main ball carrier with five 100-yard rushing efforts in the past eight games.

But dual-threat QB Fredi Knighten (2,874 pass yards, 7.2 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has totaled multiple touchdowns in seven of his past eight games. He has rushed for 774 yards (4.0 YPC) and 11 TD this season, including a season-high 153 rushing yards and 2 TD in the team's most recent game, a 68-35 blowout win over New Mexico State.

When Knighten looks to pass, he most often targets a trio of WRs Dijon Paschal (642 rec yards, 4 TD), Tres Houston (607 rec yards, 3 TD) and J.D. McKissic (530 rec yards, 0 TD). The freshman Paschal started his career slowly with only 19.5 receiving YPG in his first four games, but has averaged an impressive 70.5 receiving YPG in his past eight contests.

Defensively, the Red Wolves are subpar, allowing 27.7 PPG (77th in nation), and aren't particular strong defending either method of offense, allowing 192 rushing YPG (4.5 YPC) and 219 passing YPG (6.9 YPA) this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

oDaddy Bowl betting preview: Toledo vs. Arkansas State

Toledo Rockets vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (+3.5, 68.5)

Arkansas State makes its fourth consecutive appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl when the Red Wolves face Toledo in Mobile, Ala. Toledo won seven of its final nine regular-season games, but the Rockets will be tested by a Red Wolves team that has compiled 35 victories over the past four seasons. Arkansas State is seeking its third straight GoDaddy Bowl victory after beating Ball State 23-20 last season.

Toledo is led by the running back tandem of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, who combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. Hunt finished second in the nation in yards per carry at 7.9. The duo will likely receive a heavy workload against an Arkansas State squad that ranks 91st nationally in run defense at 191.9 yards per game.

Both teams struggled in non-conference play this season, with Toledo allowing a total of 107 points in back-to-back losses to Missouri and Cincinnati. The Rockets also fell 37-30 to an Iowa State team that finished 2-10. Arkansas State lost to Tennessee and Miami before recording an impressive 21-14 overtime win over Utah State on Sept. 20.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Toledo -2.5 and the Rockets are now -3.5. The total opened at 67 and is up to 68.5.

INJURIES: Toledo - DB Jordan Haden (Out, abdominal). Arkansas State - DB Charleston Girley (Probable, wrist).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the south endzone at 10 mph.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Hunt missed three games with an ankle injury but still rushed for 1,360 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Rockets, who average 34.4 points per game. Quarterback Logan Woodside, who threw for 19 scores with seven interceptions, finished the regular season on a high note with a career-high five touchdown passes in a 52-16 victory over Eastern Michigan. Linebacker Junior Sylvestre recorded a team-high 94 tackles and leads a unit that ranked 11th in the MAC in pass defense.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Dual-threat quarterback Fredi Knighten passed for 2,874 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and has also rushed for 775 yards and 11 scores. The dynamic junior accounted for 449 total yards and four touchdowns in a 68-35 victory over New Mexico State in the Red Wolves’ regular-season finale. Linebacker Qushaun Lee and cornerback Artez Brown each had four interceptions to lead the defense, which allowed an average of 39 points in its last three games.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Red Wolves are 12-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in Rockets last five non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in Red Wolves last seven games overall.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bettors are backing Toledo.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MAC has been a hot over bet in bowl season
Andrew Avery

Bowl season is winding down and the Mid-American Conference has been a treasure trove if you've been taking Overs. Through four of the conference's five bowl games, the Over is 4-0 with Sunday's GoDaddy Bowl - featuring the Toledo Rockets - the last on MAC's schedule.

Each of Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Central Michigan played in bowl games that surpassed closing totals.

Oddsmakers opened the showdown between Toledo and the Sun Belt's Arkansas State with a total of 66 or 66.5, but that has since moved up to the present 68.5.

The Rockets finished with an O/U record of 7-5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Godaddy.com Bowl, Mobile, 1/4

Seniors who red-shirted a year at Arkansas State had a different coach in all five years of college, in addition to two other interim coaches for bowl games. Red Wolves are in this bowl for 4th year in row, winning last two by 17-13/23-20 scores. Underdogs won/covered this bowl three of last four years, with last three staying under total. Over last six years, MAC bowl favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread; they're 1-10 SU in bowls last couple years. Toledo is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 38.7 ppg in last three; Rockets won four of last five games, are 1-3-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread. ASU is 3-2 in games with single digit spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

TOLEDO (8 - 4) vs. ARKANSAS ST (7 - 5) - 1/4/2015, 9:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

JANUARY 4, 9:00 PM
TOLEDO vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Toledo is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Arkansas State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

GoDaddy Bowl
Arkansas State vs Toledo
Arkansas State won and covered past two GoDaddy Bowls
Favorites are 8-2-2 ATS in the last 12 GoDaddy/GMAC Bowls
Seven of the last nine GoDaddy Bowl games played UNDER the total

College Football Championship Game
SEC is 7-1 SU and ATS in title games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Bowls
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, January 4

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TOLEDO vs. ARKANSAS STATE (GoDaddy.com Bowl)...
Rockets no covers last three bowls (2010-11-12) and MAC 0-5 vs. line LY in postseason, 8-19 since 2008. Rockets only 4-9-1 last 14 on board as well. Ark State's fourth straight GoDaddy, won and covered last 2, now 12-6 last 18 on board since late 2013.

Ark State, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card History
By Bruce Marshall

Where did the time go? We have been around so long that we long precede the "wildcard" concept, which was not officially introduced into pro football until the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The seeds of the wildcard, however, were planted in previous seasons when the occasional conference playoff was necessitated, and when the AFL experimented with an extra round of playoff action in its final season of 1969. But once the wildcard arrived, it was here to stay in the NFL, one of former commissioner Pete Rozelle's many innovations that forever changed the landscape of pro football.

It was perhaps inevitable that an expanded playoff format would materialize, especially after the league began adding expansion teams in the 1960s (when the AFL also came into existence), although it took a while for the idea to resonate. Ironically, the trigger turned out to be the 1965 Western Conference playoff between the old Baltimore Colts and Green Bay Packers, who had tied with 10-3-1 marks in the regular season, necessitating a one-game playoff for the right to meet the defending title holders and Eastern Conference champion Browns the next week. Colts-Packers was no artistic masterpiece, but provided such compelling viewing in Green Bay's 13-10 overtime win that Rozelle couldn't help but figure out that expanding the postseason to include an extra round of drama, such as the Colts and Pack provided, would prove a boon to league coffers and be irresistible to CBS, which had exclusive TV rights for the NFL in those days. And when expansion added the New Orleans Saints as the league's 16th team in 1967, Rozelle jumped at the opportunity to revamp the playoff format as part of a reconfigured league that would be divided into four, four-team divisions. Naturally, the winners of the Western Conference divisions (the newly-christened "Coastal" and "Central") and those in the East (the "Capitol" and "Century" Divisions) would compete against each other in an extra round of playoff action that was a hit with the pro football audience from the outset.

The old AFL also experimented with an aforementioned, expanded playoff format in its last season of existence in 1969 when it would invite second-place finishers from both its old Eastern and Western Divisions (who turned out to be the Oilers and Chiefs) to compete with the division winners Jets and Raiders in a semifinal round. Though Rozelle would not officially coin the "wildcard" term until 1970, the '69 Chiefs were indeed the first "wildcard" Super Bowl champion in 1969.

The merger year of 1970 was when the "wildcard" became a permanent part of the pro football lexicon. The first "official" wildcards were the Dolphins (AFC) and Lions (NFC)...the latter emerging from what we at TGS still believe was one of the best stretch drives in our 58 seasons of publishing.

The 1970 season was memorable (George Blanda, Tom Dempsey, and the debut of Monday Night Football), and the NFC playoff chase that season eventually settled into a breathless seven-team dogfight for the four available postseason slots, right up to the final weekend, with the new "wildcard" adding an extra level of intrigue to the proceedings. NFL fans were mesmerized; George Allen's Rams and the rival 49ers were going toe-to-toe in the West, the Vikings clear in the Central, but the Lions very much in the wildcard picture, with the Cardinals, Giants, and Cowboys all thundering down the stretch in the East. The latter appeared to be St. Louis' to lose until the Big Red stumbled in December, losing at Detroit, at home to the Giants, and by 1 point at Washington to close the campaign and eliminate itself from the postseason.

For a while, it seemed as if the Giants, led by QB Fran Tarkenton, were going to win the East; a penultimate 34-17 win at Busch Stadium over the fading Cards in Week 13 opened the door for the G-Men to capture the division as long as they could beat the Rams at Yankee Stadium on the final day of the regular season. But George Allen's team, needing a win to stay alive in the West, throttled the Giants, 31-3, effectively ending New York's playoff hopes. At 9-5, the Giants were thus bypassed by Detroit, a 20-0 winner over the Pack (the second Detroit blanking of Green Bay that season) to claim the wildcard, and Dallas, which had been surging since a 38-0 mid-November Cotton Bowl loss to the Cardinals but which had taken the East by winning five in a row to close the regular season, with depleted Houston not offering much resistance to Dallas in a 52-10 Cowboy win on closing day. Rather incredibly, the Cowboys' Doomsday Defense had not allowed a TD in its final four regular-season games! Meanwhile, after beating the Giants earlier in the day, the Rams needed the Raiders to beat their cross-bay rival 49ers on the final day to give them, and not San Francisco, the NFC West title, but the 49ers took away most of the mystery in the early going en route to a 38-7 romp to sew up the West.

There was also great concern heading into the last week of the regular season that a coin flip might have to determine the NFC wildcard rep. All it would have taken was a win by the Giants to force Dallas and Detroit into a coin flip for the wildcard spot. Fortunately (though maybe not for the Giants), we didn't have to endure that scenario. In subsequent years, more extensive tiebreaker procedures were set in place to prevent the possibility of a coin flip deciding a playoff participant.

In the 44 years since, we're still waiting for a playoff chase to replicate the NFC charge down the stretch in that merger year of 1970.

The first official post-merger Rozelle wildcard team to participate in the playoffs was Detroit, which would face Dallas at the old Cotton Bowl on Saturday, December 26, a day before AFC wildcard Miami would face the Raiders in muddy Oakland. Neither of those 1970 playoff games involving the wildcards, however, were artistic masterpieces.

The Lions and Cowboys (who meet again this weekend) would engage in a defensive war for the ages, featuring perhaps the most inept passing displays in postseason history. The teams combined to complete 11 of 38 (!) passes for 130 yards between Lion QBs Greg Landry and Bill Munson and Cowboys QB Craig Morton. Dallas would mostly control the game with its "Doomsday Defense," which was in the aforementioned process of not allowing a TD in a 23-quarter span spreading from late in the regular season all of the way until the 3rd Q of the NFC title game vs. the 49ers. Yet while Duane Thomas and Walt Garrison banged for a combined 202 YR, the Cowboy offense could not manage more than a Mike Clark first-quarter field goal. Leading 3-0 in the 4th Q, Dallas was repelled by a Lions goal-line stand, only to see DE George Andrie sack Landry for a safety and a 5-0 lead a few plays later. Despite the odd scoreline, there would be a grandstand finish, as Detroit had one last gasp. On its final possession, Lions backup QB Munson would hit former USC sprinter Earl McCullough on a 39-yard 4th-down bomb deep into Dallas territory before Cowboy DB Mel Renfro intercepted a tipped Munson pass in the final seconds to preserve the 5-0 final, which was the Cowboys' second baseball scoreline in three games (Dallas had survived a must-win game at Cleveland, 6-2, in the penultimate regular-season week to stay in the NFC East race).

The following day, Don Shula's emerging Dolphins, along with third-year expansionist and AFC Central champ Cincinnati, the surprise packages of 1970, played their first-ever playoff game against the Raiders at a muddy Oakland Coliseum. Miami, which had upset Oakland 20-13 at the Orange Bowl almost three months earlier on October 3 (an early signal that the Shula Dolphind meant business), played John Madden's team evenly for most of the day in the slop, but the Raiders would break the game open with two big plays in the second half, first a 50-yard Willie Brown interception TD, stepping in front of a Bob Griese sideline pass, that broke a 7-7 tie in the 3rd Q, then Daryle Lamonica's 82-yard TD pass to WR Rod Sherman in the 4th Q that extended the lead to 21-7 before Griese hit ex-Colt Willie Richardson with a late TD pass to cut the final score to 21-14. Hardly an auspicious start for the post-merger wildcards, but they were here to stay!

Enough of the trips down memory lane. The playoffs would next be altered in 1978 with the addition of a second wildcard from each conference; more adjustments came in 1990, when a third wildcard team was added to each conference, upping the total number of postseason participants to 12. This also doubled the number of games on wildcard weekend (from 2 to 4), as now only the top two division winners from each conference would get a "bye" in the first round, and the division winner with the worst record was thrown in with the wildcard teams in the initial playoff weekend.

When the NFL eventually reconfigured its divisions (from 6 to 8) in 2002, the wildcard round wasn't fundamentally altered. Although there would technically be only two wildcards (as opposed to three), there would still be the same number of four games on wildcard weekend, which then featured the two division winners with the worst records along with two wildcard entries from each conference.

Historically, the wildcard round has been somewhat-fertile territory for the underdogs, who over the years have generally fared better in this round than in subsequent Division Round or conference championships. That trend somewhat revived a season ago, when three of the four wildcard games were nailbiters, with two of them (Kansas City-Indy and San Francisco-Green Bay) ending as "pushes" vs. the spread, while underdogs New Orleans (at Philadelphia) and San Diego (at Cincinnati) would win outright. Dogs, however, had been 1-7 vs. the line in wildcard games the previous two seasons. Which should only serve as a reminder that trends with such a thin number of examples are apt to turn around on a moment's notice; after all, in 2010, all four wildcard-round underdogs were pointspread winners. The shorter-priced (1-3 point) dogs stand 28-19-4 vs. the number since '78, including 11-5-2 against the spread the last five years. Home dogs, a bit rare in playoff action, are 13-5-1 vs. the points in first-round games since '78, though we have had one of those each of the past two seasons, and neither covered (the Redskins falling to the Seahawks two years ago, and the Pack losing by three while forging a pointspread push with the 49ers last January).

Still, for the most part of over the past 36 seasons, wildcard-round underdogs have generally fared well. Many insiders believe the absence of the top two conference seeds in the first round has contributed to better overall underdog marks than in subsequent rounds. But it's worth noting that one-sided results are still fairly common in the wildcard-round games, with 16 of 36 contests since 2005 being decided by 14 points or more, as have close to half of them (53 of 118) since the wildcard round was introduced in 1978. "Totals" results have also trended "under" (7-1) the past two seasons, although those results have been fairly well split ("unders" 27-24-1) since 2001.

Following are the spread results for wildcard playoff games since 1978 (excluding the 1982 "strike" season, when all 16 playoff teams participated in first-round games).

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978

CATEGORY VS. POINTS

1-3 pt. dogs... 28-19-4
3 1/2- 6 1/2 pt. dogs... 18-19-1
7-pt. or more dogs... 14-14
Home dogs... 13-5-1
Road dogs... 46-47-4

Margins of victory (118 total games)
-- 25 games have been decided by 1-3 points
-- 26 games by 4-7 points
-- 14 games by 8-13 points
-- 53 games have been decided by 14 points or more

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Card Preview
By ASA

Indianapolis (-3.5, 49) vs. Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Indy ran away with the AFC South by winning five of the final six games, those wins coming against teams with a combined record of 25-55 – none against playoff participants. In fact, only two of their 11 wins came against playoff teams this season, but one of those wins was against the Bengals back in Week 7. The Colts are led by the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind star QB Andrew Luck. Luck finished with 40 pass TD and 16 INT and tossed for 300+ pass yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He’ll be going against a Cincinnati pass-defense that has really played well of late. The Bengals have held the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to just 236 pass YPG with 4 pass TD allowed with 8 INT. Much is made of Cincinnati’s recent struggles in the postseason headlined by concerns about QB Dalton’s weak play. Dalton has just 1 pass TD and 6 INT in three career playoff games, failing to lead the Bengals to a postseason victory in three appearances.

Expect the Bengals to take some heat off of Dalton by giving RB’s Hill & Bernard a heavy workload. The rookie Hill led the team with 1,124 rush yards (5.1 YPC) and 9 TD while Bernard chipped in with 680 rush yards (4.0 YPC) and 5 TD. In Indy’s last two games against playoff contenders (New England & Dallas), the Colts allowed 373 rush yards and 5 rush TD, losing both of those games by 28.5 PPG. Indianapolis is an NFL-best 18-6-1 ATS at home over the past three seasons, a 75% cover rate. Cincinnati is 8-5-1 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons, winning three of their last four outright. Indy won the latest meeting in Week 7 of this season, 27-0. The game was completely dominated by Indy as they had a 506-135 total yard advantage and a 27-8 first down advantage.


Dallas (-7, 48) vs. Detroit – Sunday, 4:40 PM EST
Since Dallas’ 23-point home loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have gone 4-0 SU & ATS, winning each game by an average score of 41.3-19.8. They arguably have the top QB-RB-WR trio in the NFL with Tony Romo (led the NFL in passer rating), DeMarco Murray (led the NFL in rush yards), and Dez Bryant (led the NFL in receiving TD). Perhaps the most integral part of Dallas’ success this season was its offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL. They’ll have their hands full against this Detroit defense that ranked 1st against the run, 2nd in total yards allowed, and 3rd in points allowed. This defense got some very good news that star DT Ndamukong Suh won his appeal and will no longer be suspended for this game.

Offensively, the Lions have hit a bit of a funk lately. QB Stafford has completed less than 55% of his passes with 4 TD and 2 INT over the last three games while leading the Lions to just 18.6 PPG over that span. They’ll be facing a defense that has a “bend but don’t break” mentality all season. Nothing jumps out about this Dallas defense, but over and over they’ve made enough plays to allow Dallas’ offense to prosper. Dallas probably wanted this game to be in Detroit as the Cowboys finished a perfect 8-0 on the road this season. They were 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS at home, scoring 10.3 fewer PPG at home than on the road. Detroit ranks dead last the NFL with an 8-15 ATS mark away from home over the past three seasons. Dallas is 28th in the NFL with a 9-15 ATS mark at home over that same span. Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last seven playoff games dating back to 1998. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-6 in six appearances since.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
By Chris David

In Saturday’s installment of Total Talk, we recapped Week 17 and touched on the last 10 years of the Wild Card weekend. During this span, the ‘under’ has produced a 25-15 (62.5%) record which includes a 7-1 (87.5%) mark the past two seasons.

Is there a reason for the low-scoring affairs? There isn’t one specific reason but after looking at the numbers, you could make a case that the conditions have played a part.

In the last three playoffs, there have been four games played in a dome or within a stadium with a retractable roof. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in those contests.

2011 – Cincinnati 10 at Houston 31 (OVER 38)
2011 - Detroit 28 at New Orleans 45 (OVER 59.5)
2012 – Cincinnati 13 at Houston 19 (UNDER 24.5)
2013 – Kansas City 44 at Indianapolis 45 (OVER 48)

Why do I bring this up?

Because both games on Sunday will be played indoors.

Sunday, Jan. 4

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. I’ll tally the results each weekend and hopefully start 2015 in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

In Week 7, the Colts blanked the Bengals 27-0 in what was their most dominating performance of the season. Indianapolis racked up 506 yards of offense while Cincinnati mustered up 135 total yards. If it wasn’t for a pair of turnovers and a short field goal, this margin could’ve easily been 40 points.

The total on that matchup was 50 ½ and the number has dropped to 48 ½ for the rematch this weekend.

Cincinnati didn’t have star wide receiver A.J. Green in the earlier loss this season and he’s expected to miss Sunday’s game after suffering a concussion in last week’s loss at Pittsburgh. It’s a big loss for the Bengals offense but they’ve taken on a new look with Jeremy Hill at running back, which in turn has helped the defense stay off the field.

Since the beating at Indy, the Bengals closed the season with a 4-1 record on the road behind a defense that allowed an average of 12.6 PPG. Delving into last week’s loss at Pittsburgh, it should be noted that the Steelers scored 14 points on a punt return and a 63-yard busted pass play late in the game. Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road this season and that includes five winning tickets during the aforementioned span.

Holding the Indianapolis offense and QB Andrew Luck in check won’t be easy but be aware that the Colts have scored more points on the road this season than at home. Indianapolis has been much better defensively (17.8 PPG) at Lucas Oil Stadium, which has helped keep the ‘over/under’ at 4-4 this season.

It’s well known that Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-3 in the playoffs and he hasn’t played well at all. He’s only completed 56 percent of his passes and been intercepted six times. Dalton will be held accountable if Cincinnati comes up short again on Sunday but so should head coach Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 in the postseason and the offense is only averaging 12.8 PPG in those losses. Despite the low numbers offensively, the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 during this span.

The Colts won their first playoff game with Luck last season and that was a very fortunate victory as the Chiefs blew a 28-point lead. What everybody likes about Luck is that he rebounds after mistakes and he’s made plenty (8 INTs) in three postseason games.

Fearless Prediction: Normally, I like to take the vice versa approach to totals when teams meet for the second time in a season, especially with the first result falls way below or way above the closing number, which is the case here. However, as much as I want to see Dalton get over the hump, I just can’t trust him in this spot and I’m going to play the UNDER 22 ½ team total for Cincinnati.

Detroit at Dallas

Of the four games in the Wild Card round, this is the only total that moved up off its opener. Oddsmakers sent out 48 and most shops have the number at 49 as of Saturday evening.

If you put a lot of stock into home-away tendencies, then you’re leaning to the ‘under’ in this matchup. Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2-1 at home while Detroit has produced a 7-1 record to the ‘under’ on the road and that could easily be 8-0 if it wasn’t for 10 late points in last week’s 30-20 loss at Green Bay.

Adding more weight to the 'under' lean is the offensive numbers for both clubs. Dallas averaged 29.2 PPG this season, but the average fell to 24 PPG at AT&T Stadium. Detroit’s scoring has been down this season (20.1 PPG) and a lot of the trouble has been on the road where it’s averaging 15.6 PPG.

Defensively, the Lions have the better unit in this game. Detroit is ranked second in total yards allowed (300.9) and third in scoring defense (17.6 PPG).

Bettors that weight heavily on current form can make a strong case for the ‘over’ in this matchup. QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys closed the season with four straight wins and covers and they scored 41, 38, 42 and 44 points during this run. Detroit wasn’t as explosive but it did average 24.8 PPG in its final five games, which translated into a 4-1 record and a 3-2 mark to the ‘over.’

Unfortunately, we don’t have much postseason data for either team. The Cowboys have gone 1-3 in the playoffs with Romo under center and the offense has only averaged 18.5 PPG. The last playoff game for Dallas came in 2009. Detroit made the playoffs in 2011 and was hammered 45-28 at New Orleans. It was the first playoff game for Matthew Stafford, who accounted for four touchdowns (1 rushing) and two interceptions in the loss.

These teams met last season in a wild affair from Ford Field that was a very tough beat if you had the ‘under’ or the Cowboys. Dallas held a 10-7 lead at halftime and after some big plays, it built a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter. The Lions kept answering and actually stole a 31-30 win on a Stafford sneak late in the final minute.

Fearless Prediction: My Best Bet for this matchup is OVER 49. For those of you following Total Talk this season, you’ve more than come across total systems that are profitable. One of them that I’ve written about is the “Road System” where you simply - Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road. It went 2-2 in the regular season and is 37-17-1 (68%) the last 10 seasons. Since this will be Detroit’s third game away from home, I’m leaning to the angle and expecting the winner to get into the thirties, most likely Dallas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Wild Card
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out how the odds break down in Wild Card Weekend!

(Rotation 101/102) – Lions (48) at Cowboys (-6.5)
Detroit is actually a modestly sharp team at this point. The Cowboys have come down from -7 to -6.5 in spite of the fact that they have had 57 percent of the bets on their side. The 'total' has held firm all week long and doesn't look like it is moving in spite of the fact that starting defensive tackle Nick Fairley could likely miss this game.

(Rotation 107/108) – Bengals (49) at Colts (-3)
The battle of quarterbacks who "can't win the big game." QB Andrew Luck and QB Andy Dalton have 14 picks between them in six playoff starts, and the two only have one win between them (Luck last season). Still, the 'total' is relatively high in this one, which is also odd considering the fact that these two teams combined for just 27 points when they played three months ago. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game are on the Colts, yet the line has dipped a full point from -4 down to -3. The 'total' has stuck at 49 all week, but the sharpness of the Bengals should not be ignored.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Can your NFL futures bet win the Super Bowl?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

This weekend, while the rest of the world embarks on a journey of destined-to-be-unfulfilled New Year’s resolutions, 12 NFL teams will begin their march toward the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Mathematically, every one of these clubs has a chance to take down the sport’s ultimate prize, but some fan bases enter the 2014 playoffs with more reason to believe than others.

Here’s a look at why and why not each of the 12 playoff-bound clubs will or won’t win the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks (9/4)

Why: Defense and home field advantage. Including the postseason, the Seahawks are a staggering 24-2 at CenturyLink Field since 2012 while winning by an average of 16.04 points per game. Led by the NFL’s top-ranked defense (15.9 pts/gm), Seattle hasn't lost a home playoff contest since 2005 (seven-game win streak).

Why not: They've got a bullseye on their back the size of Tacoma and were on the wrong side of a 30-23 home showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, who won the NFC East and are tailor-made to combat Seattle’s toughest assets.

New England Patriots (5/2)

Why: Experience and home field advantage. The Killer B’s are 18-8 in the playoffs since their postseason alliance commenced in 2002, which includes a 5-3 mark in conference championship games. As if those numbers weren't daunting enough, that record jumps to a lights out 12-3 when playing at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro.

Why not: As evidenced in recent playoff losses to Denver (2013), Baltimore (2012) and the New York Giants (2011), Tom Brady can’t do it all by himself, so the league’s 13th-ranked defense will have to elevate its game, especially if the Pats face the defending champion Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers (5/1)

Why: The Assassin. Led by soon-to-be-named MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (30.4 pts/gm) has a puncher’s chance against any foe you put in front of it. The Green Bay signal-caller has been playing on a whole different level this season and has thrown just two interceptions over his last eight games.

Why not: Rodgers will win the MVP award this year simply due to the idea that if you took him off the 12-win Packers, this team would finish the season with a top-7 draft pick. Additionally, it won’t be easy to run the playoff gauntlet with a defense that ranked 15th in the league during the regular season (346.4 yds/gm), coupled with the fact that the Packers are 0-2 over their last two trips to Seattle.

Denver Broncos (6/1)

Why: Critical adjustments. After coming to grips with the sobering reality that they were too one-dimensional, Denver upgraded its defense and placed an increased emphasis on the team’s rushing attack. The results have been favorable, with the team improving from 14th in total defense last season to third this year, while running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for an average of 108.0 yards with eight touchdowns over his last six starts.

Why not: They’re too soft in critical situations, head coach John Fox can’t be trusted to manage the game properly inside the final two minutes and quarterback Peyton Manning has shown his age over the last five weeks (5 TDs, 6 INTs).

Dallas Cowboys (10/1)

Why: The big men up front. Anchored by the NFL’s top offensive line, running back DeMarco Murray and quarterback Tony Romo enjoyed career years, with Murray winning the league’s rushing title (1,845 yards) and Romo leading all signal-callers in passer rating (113.2). The ability to pound the rock and grind down the clock has also helped to cover up some deficiencies on defense.

Why not: Can head coach Jason Garrett be trusted to make the right decision when the game is on the line? Is it possible that the Cowboys can find a way to win at CenturyLink Field twice in the same season? These are integral questions that will be answered over the next couple of weeks.

Indianapolis Colts (20/1)

Why: Third time’s the charm. Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano enter postseason play for the third time in three years since joining the Indianapolis Colts and have a favorable wildcard matchup against playoff dud Marvin Lewis, who is 0-5 lifetime in the postseason. One big win and this team could go streaking.

Why not: Paper champions. That 11-5 record doesn't look so impressive once you eliminate the wins over Jacksonville (twice), Tennessee (twice), Washington, Cleveland and the New York Giants. In matchups with postseason-bound clubs, Indianapolis went 2-4 this season, with both victories coming at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (20/1)

Why: What can Brown do for you? Perhaps the most dangerous big-play receiver in the game today. Steelers wideout Antonio Brown led the NFL in receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698) this season while notching 14 plays of 25+ yards (fifth in NFL) and recording five or more receptions in every single contest. As a result, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger finished the year with his highest passer rating (103.3) since 2007.

Why not: Stud running back Le’Veon Bell is battling a hyperextended knee and the once-formidable Pittsburgh defense surrendered an average of 23.0 points per game this season (18th in NFL).

Baltimore Ravens (30/1)

Why: Familiarity. Handling postseason business on the road is nothing new for Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens, who shocked the world in January of 2013 with upset wins at Denver and at New England before upending the 49ers in New Orleans. This team won’t be intimidated by hostile environments.

Why not: Cornerback Jimmy Smith was lost for the season in late October, which led to a collapse in the secondary and a defense that subsequently ranked 23rd in the league against the pass (248.7 yds/gm). That won’t cut it against a conference that features playoff quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger.

Carolina Panthers (40/1)

Why: Peaking at the right time. Carolina enters the postseason having won four straight contests in which the defense limited the opposition to just 10.75 points per game while forcing nine turnovers. The Panthers are one of the few teams built to win in Seattle.

Why not: The offense severely lacks the firepower necessary to make a serious run in the postseason (21.2 pts/gm, 19th in NFL) and the defense got hot late against bottom feeders like New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Atlanta.

Cincinnati Bengals (40/1)

Why: The emergence of rookie running back Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 116.8 rushing yards with six touchdowns in eight games as the team’s starter, has taken the load off of both quarterback Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati defense. And that’s a big deal because the last guy you want to go all-in with is Andy Dalton.

Why not: Marvin Lewis (0-5) and Andy Dalton (0-3) have never tasted victory in the postseason and Lewis cannot be trusted to out-coach any of his counterparts when in the big spot on the big stage.

Detroit Lions (40/1)

Why: The Lions boast the league’s top-ranked run defense (69.3 yds/gm), second-ranked scoring defense (17.6 pts/gm) and second-ranked overall defense (300.9 yds/gm), have a legitimate power back in Joique Bell and one of the best 1-2 receiver punches in the game in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. On paper, this team looks downright nasty.

Why not: Matthew Stafford. The Detroit quarterback has never won a big game, turns the ball over far too often and is a lifetime 14-24 when playing on the road. If Stafford didn’t have the support of one of the league’s best defensive units, he’d catch as much heat as Jay Cutler.


Arizona Cardinals (75/1)

Why: Bruce Arians is one of the best coaches in the NFL.

Why not: Ryan Lindley is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Round
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Wild Card Round:

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Wild Card Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Cincinnati at Indianapolis**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Indianapolis (11-5 straight up, 10-5-1 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take the Bengals on the money line for a +160 return (risk $100 to win $160). For first-half wagers, the Colts are favored by 2.5 (-120) or three (even money) with a total of 24.5.

-- Chuck Pagano's squad won six of its eight home games while posting a 5-2-1 spread record. Indy has won three in a row at home, going 2-0-1 ATS. Regardless of the venue, the Colts have won five of their last six games, including a 27-10 win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale. They took the cash as 7.5-point road 'chalk.' Andrew Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted.

-- Indy has been a single-digit favorite 13 times, going 8-4-1 ATS.

-- Cincinnati (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had won four in a row on the road until dropping a 27-17 decision at Pittsburgh as a three-point underdog in last week's regular-season finale. Andy Dalton threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort, but he was also intercepted twice. Jeremy Hill ran for 100 yards on 23 carries. A.J. Green had eight receptions for 82 yards, but he also sustained a concussion.

-- Green didn't practicedall week and was ruled 'out' Saturday afternoon. This is obviously a huge development as Green is one of the NFL's top wide receivers. During the regular season, Green hauled in 69 catches for 1,041 yards and six TDs. He missed three games earlier in the year.

-- Dalton has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,398 yards, but he has a mediocre 19/17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The fourth-year QB has led the Bengals to the postseason ever since getting drafted, but he's still looking for his first victory in the playoffs.

-- Hill has enjoyed a breakout season as a rookie, rushing for 1,124 yards and nine TDs. Hill, an LSU product who started only eight games, averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

-- Marvin Lewis's defense is led by a pair of Florida Gators. Reggie Nelson has a team-high 62 solo tackles along with 33 assists. Nelson also has four interceptions, 1.5 sacks and 12 passes defended. Carlos Dunlap has a team-best eight sacks to with a pair of forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

-- Luck has completed 61.7 percent of his throws for 4,761 yards with a 40/16 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for three TDs. His favorite target is T.Y. Hilton, who has made 82 catches for 1,345 yards and seven TDs. Veteran WR Reggie Wayne has 64 receptions for 779 yards and two TDs, while TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener have both brought down eight TD catches apiece.

-- The 'over' is 9-7 overall for the Colts, 4-4 in their home games. However, the 'under' has cashed in four straight Indy games and five of its last six.

-- The 'under' is 10-6 overall for the Bengals, 7-1 in their road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Detroit at Dallas**

-- As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had Dallas (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) listed as a seven-point 'chalk'at even money. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250). For first-half bets, the Cowboys are favored by four with a total of 24.

-- Detroit (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) had won four in a row until dropping a 30-20 decision at Green Bay last weekend. The showdown at Lambeau Field determined the NFC North winner and the Packers earned a bye and a weekend of rest. The Lions failed to cover the spread for the third straight game, disappointing their backers as 8.5-point road underdogs.

-- In the loss at Green Bay, Matt Stafford threw for 217 yards and three TDs without an interception. Calvin Johnson caught four balls for 39 yards and two TDs.

-- Stafford has connected on 60.3 percent of his passes for 4,257 yards with a 22/12 TD-INT ratio. Johnson missed three games but still managed to haul in 71 catches for 1,077 yards and eight TDs. Golden Tate enjoyed a career year, making 99 receptions for 1,331 yards and four TDs.

-- With Reggie Bush missing five games due to injuries, Joique Bell emerged as the featured back. Bell ran for a team-high 860 yards and seven TDs, but his yards-per-carry average was only 3.9.

-- Dallas appeared to be in trouble on Thanksgiving Day when it fell one game back of Philadelphia in the NFC East race. The Eagles went into Arlington and smashed the Cowboys by a 33-10 count. Nevertheless, Dallas responded by winning four in a row both SU and ATS with each victory coming by double-digit margins.

-- Tony Romo has enjoyed a monster season, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 3,705 yards with a 34/9 TD-INT ratio. He was sensational in December, throwing 12 TD passes compared to only one interception in the last four games.

-- Dallas RB DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards. Murray rushed for 13 TDs and averaged 4.7 YPC.

-- Dallas WR Dez Bryant had a team-high 88 catches for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs. Jason Witten was steady as always, bringing down 64 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs.

-- Detroit leads the NFL in rushing defense, giving up only 69.3 yards per game. Jim Caldwell's club is third in scoring defense, allowing only 17.6 points per game. The Lions are No. 2 in the league in total defense.

-- Dallas went undefeated on the road this season, only to inexplicably struggle at home. The Cowboys won just four of eight home games while going 3-5 ATS at Jerry World.

-- Detroit went 4-4 SU on the road, but it had a miserable 2-6 ATS ledger. As a road underdog, the Lions compiled a 2-3 record both SU and ATS.

-- The 'under' has been a money maker in Detroit games this season, cashing at an 11-5 overall clip. When the Lions have played on the road, the 'under' has gone 7-1.

-- The 'over' is 9-6-1 overall for Dallas, but the 'under' has produced at a 5-2-1 clip in its home outings.

-- FOX will have the telecast at 4:40 p.m. Eastern.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-5-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Line Indianapolis -3, Total: 49

The Bengals look for their first playoff win since 1990 (six straight postseason losses) when they visit the Colts on Sunday for a Wild Card round matchup.

Cincinnati is coming off a Week 17 loss in Pittsburgh where the team was a 3-point road underdog in the game, but it had won-and-covered in the previous two contests. Indianapolis toppled the Titans 27-10 as a 7-point road favorite for its fifth SU victory in six games.

Earlier in the season, the Colts crushed the Bengals 27-0 as 3-point favorites at home. Cincinnati had won-and-covered in two straight road games in this series before that shutout, but Indianapolis has won eight of its past 10 home meetings.

Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-1 ATS off a division game, but are 0-6 ATS in road contests after covering the spread in two out their previous three games in that timeframe. The Colts, meanwhile, are 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the past two years.

Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (concussion) is 'out' for this game after getting hit in the head against the Steelers in Week 17, and two of his teammates are 'questionable' -- CB Terence Newman (illness) and WR James Wright (knee).

Indianapolis has five questionable players for Sunday, TE Dwayne Allen (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring), LB Bjoern Werner, G Joe Reitz (ankle) and OT Gosder Cherilus (groin).

The Bengals are coming off a loss to the Steelers in a game that could’ve given them the AFC North crown. QB Andy Dalton (3,398 pass yards, 19 TD, 17 INT) threw for 244 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the game.

Dalton has looked a lot more confident in the pocket over the last two weeks, but the team has little to no chance of advancing to the next round if he doesn’t limit his turnovers. He threw for just 126 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in the Oct. 19 loss to the Colts, and is 0-3 in his playoff career with 1 TD and 6 INT in those defeats. Dalton could have even more trouble in this game since WR A.J. Green (69 rec, 1,041 yards, 6 TD) isn’t cleared to play this Sunday. Green had eight catches for 82 yards against the Steelers last week, but he lost a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter.

RBs Jeremy Hill (1,124 rush yards, 9 TD) and Giovani Bernard (680 rush yards, 5 TD) will need to be more effective for Cincinnati. Hill rushed for 100 yards against the Steelers, and Bernard added seven receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown in the game. Both of these guys do different things for this offense, and both will have a major role against the Colts.

Cincinnati will need its defense to hold up, as the unit is allowing 27.5 PPG over the past two weeks and needs to play much better against this potent Colts offense.

Indianapolis will enter this game extremely confident after beating the Bengals 27-0 earlier in the season at Lucas Oil Stadium. QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) threw for 344 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in that game. He’s also coming off a 160-yards, 2-TD performance against the Titans in limited action in Week 17.

Luck will need to be on his game on Sunday or the team will have no chance of advancing, as the running game hasn’t been there since RB Ahmad Bradshaw (425 rush yards, 2 TD) went down.

Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) played against the Titans after hurting his groin a few weeks ago and was a non-factor, finishing the game with no catches on three targets. Indianapolis will need Hilton to be healthy for this game, or Andrew Luck will have to turn to his other targets that he doesn’t trust quite as much.

TE Coby Fleener (51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TD) will be the one that Luck relies on most, as he is coming off of a performance against the Titans where he caught five catches for 56 yards and two touchdowns. WR Reggie Wayne (779 rec yards) and TE Dwayne Allen (8 rec TD) are less than 100 percent healthy, which puts more pressure on both Hilton and Fleener.

The Colts defense could ultimately decide whether or not they win this game. They allowed just 10 points against the Titans last week, but 42 against the Cowboys the week before. They’ll need to give Luck a chance to win this game, so getting the Bengals offense off the field is crucial.

DETROIT LIONS (11-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-4)

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line Dallas -6.5, Total: 48

The Cowboys look to ride their hot streak into a home playoff meeting with the Lions.

Detroit lost 30-20 in the NFC North division-deciding game at Lambeau Field last week, but the team had won four straight games heading into that one. Dallas, meanwhile, won 44-17 as 6-point favorites in Washington for its fourth consecutive win-and-cover.

These two teams most recently met on Oct. 27, 2013, when the Lions won 31-30 as 3-point home favorites. Detroit has won the past two meetings in this series, but the teams have split wins ATS. The Cowboys are a miserable 10-25 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their previous seven games since 1992.

They are, however, 24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games in that timeframe. They’re also up against a Lions team that is 1-8 ATS after having won three out of their past four games over the past two years.

Detroit is in pretty good shape injury-wise, but G Larry Warford (knee) is doubtful to play.

Dallas has a slew of players who are questionable in S C.J. Spillman (groin), DT Nick Hayden (shoulder), LB Rolando McClain (illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (leg), OT Doug Free (ankle), DT Josh Brent (calf) and LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring). The team also just placed two players on IR -- DT Henry Melton (knee) and OT Darrion Weems (shoulder).

The Lions defense was disappointing in a 30-20 loss to the Packers on Sunday that could have given them the win in the division. Detroit’s top-ranked rushing defense allowed the Packers to rush for 152 yards as a team, and overall, it let Green Bay convert 8-of-13 third-down plays. The Lions will need to be a lot better against a Cowboys offense that has been hot as of late.

If this defense isn’t playing like it has most of the year, QB Matthew Stafford (4,257 pass yards, 22 TD, 12 INT) will need to have a big game. Stafford threw for 217 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Packers, but he was just 20-of-41 in the game. Stafford will need to be way more efficient passing the ball, and it shouldn’t be too difficult with WR Calvin Johnson (71 rec, 1,077 yards, 8 TD) on his side. Johnson caught four passes for 39 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. He is a nightmare to defend on the outside and should be in for a big game against the Cowboys, especially considering how he destroyed Dallas in last year's meeting with 14 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns.

RB Joique Bell (860 rush yards, 7 TD) is going to be a big factor in this game. Bell rushed 13 times for 60 yards against the Packers last week and will need to be more involved against the Cowboys. Bell’s powerful style of running can wear out the Dallas defense, and that is something that the Lions really need to do.

The Cowboys are playing extremely well lately, heading into the postseason on a four-game winning streak. Over the past two weeks, their defense has been absolutely dominant, allowing just 12.0 PPG. But the competition is a lot stiffer with a Lions team that has Calvin Johnson lined up on the outside. It will not be easy, but they did hold an Andrew Luck-led Colts team to just seven points two weeks ago.

QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) has nine touchdowns and just one interception over the past three weeks. His days of costing this team games with turnovers seem to be way in the past, and he is now looking to shed his past troubles in the playoffs where he is 1-3 with 6.2 yards per pass attempt in his career.

One guy that can help this franchise win its first postseason game since 2009 is WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), who has six touchdowns over the past three weeks. Bryant is nearly impossible to stop once the Cowboys get into the red zone, and Romo will be looking his way often in this one.

The Lions defense is the best in the league at stopping the rush, so Romo and Bryant may need to pick up the slack if RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD) is to struggle. Murray did, however, shred a solid Redskins rushing defense last week with 100 yards and a touchdown. He now has four touchdowns over the past three weeks, despite playing with a fractured hand.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL bloggers debate who will cover Sunday's Wild Card games

The NFL Playoffs continue with a pair of Wild Card games as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC and the Dallas Cowboys welcome the Detroit Lions in the NFC Sunday.

In order to get a better grip on these postseason matchups, we enlist the help of NFL expert bloggers, who give you one reason their team not only wins but covers the spread Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 48.5)

KEY REASON CINCINNATI COVERS

Mickey Mentzer writes for Cincy Jungle. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @CincyJungle.

The Cincinnati Bengals not only cover, but win. The main reason will be the resurgence of the running game with rookie Jeremy Hill. The Colts have been struggling stopping the run and no running back has more rushing yards since Week 8 than Hill. In the first matchup Hill only got four carries.

KEY REASON INDIANAPOLIS COVERS

Kyle Rodriguez is a senior writer and assistant editor at The Colts Authority. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @ColtsAuthority.

The Colts will win and cover against the Bengals on Sunday because the defense is primed to beat quarterbacks like Andy Dalton. While Dalton has his moments, he struggles under pressure, throwing for just a 57.3 passer rating while under pressure this year. The Colts don't have a great individual pass rusher, but they are ninth in Adjusted Sack Rate because of some creative blitzes and stunts installed by defensive coordinator Greg Manusky. Throw in Dalton's 1:6 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs, and you have a defense that's not scared. If the Colts can control the Bengals' run game in any capacity and force the Bengals into third down situations, they should be able to keep the Bengals' scoring chances low.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

KEY REASON DETROIT COVERS

Sean Yuille is the managing editor for Pride of Detroit. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @PrideOfDetroit.

When you think about this Cowboys team, one of the first things that comes to mind is their stellar running game. Between their offensive line and DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys have one of the NFL's best rushing attacks, and that's been a big reason behind their success this season. This Sunday, however, they will be going up against the NFL's top run defense. The Lions have done an excellent job all season of containing opposing running backs, and if they can make the Cowboys somewhat one-dimensional and shift the pressure to Tony Romo, they will have an excellent chance of emerging victorious and advancing to the next round of the playoffs.

KEY REASON DALLAS COVERS

K.D. Drummond is a senior columnist for CowboysHQ. He can be followed on Twitter @KDP10For10.

Romo is having a magical season, and if his stats were attributed to any quarterback with a Super Bowl ring, he'd be the runaway winner for league MVP. Don't believe me? First in completion percentage (69.9%), first in yards per attempt (8.5). First in passer rating (113.2), first in QBR (82.75). Highest touchdown percentage (7.8%) Amongst MVP candidates, most game-winning drives (4), most fourth-quarter comebacks (4). Romo has an 8-0 road record, he also has the highest passer rating in the fourth quarter. Most importantly, in games where Romo is "healthy" (because he hasn't really been healthy all year), the Cowboys are 12-0. Undefeated. They lost to San Francisco when he was clearly not ready to play in the season opener; they lost the Washington game when he broke his back, lost the game against Arizona he didn't play and lost on Thanksgiving where for the only time on the season he wasn't able to take his pain-killing injections. They are only safe to take once a week, and three days after taking the shot against the Giants was too soon; so he folded at the nearest sign of pressure. No wonder Jerry Jones petitioned the league to give Dallas the late Sunday game instead of the Saturday contest. 9 times out of 10, bet on the superior quarterback, and that's Tony Romo over Matt Stafford all day long.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Sunday doubleheader

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 48.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season but seek their first playoff victory in 24 years when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. To end a drought dating to the 1990 season, the fifth-seeded Bengals need to find a way to avenge a 27-0 drubbing at No. 4 seed Indianapolis on Oct. 19. Star wide receiver A.J. Green missed that matchup against the Colts and is questionable for Sunday due to a concussion.

Indianapolis is in the postseason for the third straight season since using the No. 1 overall pick to draft Andrew Luck, who authored the second-largest playoff comeback in league history in last year's 45-44 victory over Kansas City. "Suppressing Andrew Luck is going to be kind of hard," Cincinnati safety Reggie Nelson said. "He always starts off kind of slow and the scary thing is, he can always get his team going." The Colts have won six of their last eight, but the two losses came in lopsided fashion to a pair of playoff teams in Dallas and New England.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Colts -4 and that has been adjusted to -3.5. The total opened 49 and is down a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR A.J. Green (Doubtful, head), CB Terence Newman (Probable, illness), TE Jermaine Gresham (Probable, leg), RB Cedric Peerman (Questionable, concussion), WR James Wright (Out, knee), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (IR, concussion). Colts - G Joe Reitz (Probable, ankle), RB Trent Richardson (Probable, illness), TE Dwayne Allen (Probable, knee), LB Bjoern Werner (Probable, shoulder), LB Jerrell Freeman (Probable, hamstring), WR Reggie Wayne (Probable, groin), G Hugh Thornton (Out, shoulder).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "We should see a competitive game between the Bengals and Colts, even with Cincinnati missing one of its best offensive weapons in A.J. Green. I like the way Cincinnati matches up with Indianapolis in the trenches, even if this was a complete mismatch in the lone regular season meeting. The Bengals seem to disappoint on an annual basis in the postseason, but playing on the road should at least relieve some of the pressure. As for the total, leaning over as long as the number stays in the 40's." Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The sharps snagged Cincinnati on the open, dropping the spread to -3, and we’ve just recently moved back to -3.5. That movement has mostly come amid the reports that A.J. Green will not play. I expect the under to get hit quite a bit leading up to gametime. In my humble opinion, I think Indy rolls." John Lester.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Much has been made of the big-game failures of quarterback Andy Dalton, who is 0-3 with one touchdown and six interceptions in the postseason. Dalton has 19 scoring passes versus 17 picks this season, including a pair against Pittsburgh in last week's showdown for the AFC North title, which is among the reasons Cincinnati will lean heavily on rookie running back Jeremy Hill - even if Green is healthy. The 240-pound Hill was a bit player in the first meeting between the teams but took over the starting job two weeks later and rushed for 100 yards five times in the last nine games, including four of at least 147 yards. The Bengals tied for the AFC lead with 20 interceptions but ranked last in the NFL with 20 sacks.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Luck threw for 344 yards and a pair of TDs against Cincinnati in October, which came during a stretch of eight straight 300-yard games en route to career-best totals of 4,761 yards and an NFL-leading 40 scoring passes. Postseason standout T.Y. Hilton and veteran Reggie Wayne each were hobbled late in the season but expect to be ready to go while tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen must be monitored after hauling in eight TD receptions apiece. The Colts amassed a season-high 171 yards on the ground in the first meeting, but Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the season and Trent Richardson has all but disappeared, leaving Daniel "Boom" Herron as the lead back. Indy allowed at least 30 points in all five of its losses - including 42 apiece to the Patriots and Cowboys.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of bettors are backing the Colts.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys have become synonymous with late-season swoons over the past two decades, but they appear bent on putting an end to that reputation. The Cowboys surged to the NFC East title in spectacular fashion and take a four-game winning streak into Sunday's Wild Card round against the visiting Detroit Lions. Dallas, which has one playoff win since 1996 and is in the postseason for the first time since 2009, averaged a staggering 41.3 points in going 4-0 in December.

The Lions came up short in their bid to secure a first-round bye with a Week 17 loss at NFC North rival Green Bay, but they picked up a huge victory off the field when the NFL reversed a one-game suspension against stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The successful appeal by Suh for stepping on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers sets up an intriguing matchup between Detroit's No. 1 rush defense and the Cowboys' second-ranked ground game, featuring the NFL's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. "The game in a lot of ways may come down to ... that matchup up front," Dallas QB Tony Romo said.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7-point home faves, but that is now -6.5. The total opened 48.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - DT Nick Fairley (Doubtful, knee). Cowboys - LB Rolando McClain (Probable, knee), DE Tyrone Crawford (Questionable, illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (Questionable, leg), T Doug Free (Doubtful, ankle).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It's not surprising that the Cowboys are laying just shy of a touchdown in this game. It really comes down to which Lions offense shows up. We know what we're going to get from their defense. They'll try to take away Dallas' ground game and force Tony Romo into a couple of critical mistakes. Dallas has showed incredible poise this season, but will obviously be under a lot of pressure playing at home on Sunday afternoon. Leaning under as far as the total goes as I have this number pegged at 46." Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We’d love to see the Lions keep it close as the Cowboys are always our most heavily-wagered team. There’s some indication we will move past the key number but if that happens I expect we will see a windfall of wiseguy money on the dog. Bettors are teasing both sides to the over. This total could easily get to or past 50 by kickoff." John Lester.

ABOUT THE LIONS (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Detroit allowed a total of 15.5 points during a four-game winning streak - all against teams with losing records - but was gashed for a season-worst 152 rushing yards in the 30-20 loss to the Packers. That more than doubled the per-game average of 69.3 yards allowed by the Lions, who ranked second in the league in points (17.6) and total yards (300.9) allowed while registering 42 sacks and 20 interceptions. Detroit's offense continues to battle inconsistency despite Matthew Stafford going over 4,000 yards passing for the fourth straight season and wideouts Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each surpassing 1,000 yards. Johnson, who missed three games due to injury, torched the Cowboys last season with a franchise-record 329 yards and a TD on 14 receptions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Murray ran away with the league rushing title, setting franchise records with 1,845 yards and 12 100-yard games despite undergoing surgery for a broken hand suffered in Week 15. Murray has rushed for six of his 13 touchdowns over the past five games, but Dallas has been equally effective through the air with Dez Bryant hauling in six scoring passes in the last three games en route to a league-best total of 16. The much-maligned Romo played superbly down the stretch to enter the MVP conversation, throwing for 12 touchdowns versus one interception during the four-game winning streak while posting a quarterback rating of at least 129.1 in six of the final nine contests. The Cowboys' defense, which ranked last in 2013, yielded only three first-half TDs during the winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of bettors are backing the Cowboys.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Over/Under 94.5 yards receiving for Johnson

If you've got your side and total wagers placed, how about venturing into the territory of prop bets for Sunday's Wild Card matchups?

Here's a look at what the Westgate LV Superbook has on their board for prop bets for Sunday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.

FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:

TOUCHDOWN -190
ANY OTHER SCORE +170

TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: MATTHEW STAFFORD (DET)

* Stafford averaged 22.7 completions per game in the regular season.

OVER 22.5 -110
UNDER 22.5 -110

TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: MATTHEW STAFFORD (DET)

* Stafford averaged 1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Over/Under 88.5 rushing yards for Hill Sunday

If you've got your side and total wagers placed, how about venturing into the territory of prop bets for Sunday's Wild Card matchups?

Here's a look at what the Westgate LV Superbook has on their board for prop bets for Sunday's AFC Wild Card showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts.

* These two teams met in a 27-0 Colts' victory in Week 7.

FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:

TOUCHDOWN -180
ANY OTHER SCORE +160

TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: ANDY DALTON (CIN)

* Dalton threw for 126 yards when the teams met in Week 7.

OVER 222.5 -110
UNDER 222.