Mr. Vegas
Bonus Play for Sunday, Jan 11, 2015:
Wizards at Hawks. These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, but as far as I'm concerned there is a lot of distance between the top (Atlanta) and 2nd (Washington). It's hard to find a team in the NBA playing better right now than the Hawks. They are tied for the 2nd best record in the NBA (28-8) and have a seven game winning streak. In fact, this club has lost only twice since late November. They are also 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games. Washington has been mediocre of late, posting a 3-3 ATS mark their last six games and 6-5 their last 11. Laying just four or five here at home with the Hawks is too much to pass on.
Take Atlanta.
Bonus Play for Sunday, Jan 11, 2015:
Wizards at Hawks. These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, but as far as I'm concerned there is a lot of distance between the top (Atlanta) and 2nd (Washington). It's hard to find a team in the NBA playing better right now than the Hawks. They are tied for the 2nd best record in the NBA (28-8) and have a seven game winning streak. In fact, this club has lost only twice since late November. They are also 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games. Washington has been mediocre of late, posting a 3-3 ATS mark their last six games and 6-5 their last 11. Laying just four or five here at home with the Hawks is too much to pass on.
Take Atlanta.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Sunday 5:00 PM NCAAB
(821) WICHITA STATE at (822) LOYOLA CHICAGO
Take: (821) WICHITA STATE -7
I know going in this will be a square side. But I see some elements that will compel me to make a case for Wichita State getting past Loyola Chicago in what is actually a pretty fascinating game.
This is a huge test for the Ramblers. They’re the MVC newcomers and Porter Moser has Loyola playing its best basketball in years right now. The Ramblers are a major surprise team and there is no question they will be totally fired up for this game.
The problem for the home team is the actual matchup. Wichita State is not as good as they were a season ago, and they’ve had a few issues with opponents who can outsize them inside. But that will not be the case here.
The other variable favoring the Shockers is ball security. That’s been a problem for Loyola, although they’ve tightened things up since league play started. But Loyola also doesn’t force turnovers to much of an extent. Based on the current data, Wichita State should have some extra possessions in this game.
Loyola’s best chance here will be from beyond the arc. The Ramblers are shooting lights out, and they’re defending the perimeter very well to boot.
There’s an injury note here, as Montel James missed the last game for Loyola and as I’m writing this, he’s a question mark for this game. James is a somewhat critical component here, as he’s the best rebounder for the Ramblers, and they really cannot afford to lose any more size.
I expect Loyola to give the Shockers a real battle here, and actually feel as though they might be a decent first half investment at +4 or so. But big game experience favors Wichita State by a wide margin and the Shockers do not want to see their amazing conference winning streak come to an end today. I’m looking for Wichita State to grind this out and put it away late, so I’ll opt for the Shockers minus the points to come away with the money.
Bonus Play Sunday 5:00 PM NCAAB
(821) WICHITA STATE at (822) LOYOLA CHICAGO
Take: (821) WICHITA STATE -7
I know going in this will be a square side. But I see some elements that will compel me to make a case for Wichita State getting past Loyola Chicago in what is actually a pretty fascinating game.
This is a huge test for the Ramblers. They’re the MVC newcomers and Porter Moser has Loyola playing its best basketball in years right now. The Ramblers are a major surprise team and there is no question they will be totally fired up for this game.
The problem for the home team is the actual matchup. Wichita State is not as good as they were a season ago, and they’ve had a few issues with opponents who can outsize them inside. But that will not be the case here.
The other variable favoring the Shockers is ball security. That’s been a problem for Loyola, although they’ve tightened things up since league play started. But Loyola also doesn’t force turnovers to much of an extent. Based on the current data, Wichita State should have some extra possessions in this game.
Loyola’s best chance here will be from beyond the arc. The Ramblers are shooting lights out, and they’re defending the perimeter very well to boot.
There’s an injury note here, as Montel James missed the last game for Loyola and as I’m writing this, he’s a question mark for this game. James is a somewhat critical component here, as he’s the best rebounder for the Ramblers, and they really cannot afford to lose any more size.
I expect Loyola to give the Shockers a real battle here, and actually feel as though they might be a decent first half investment at +4 or so. But big game experience favors Wichita State by a wide margin and the Shockers do not want to see their amazing conference winning streak come to an end today. I’m looking for Wichita State to grind this out and put it away late, so I’ll opt for the Shockers minus the points to come away with the money.
Red Dog Sports
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
Bonus Play Rutgers +16
Rutgers is off a bad loss on the road and return home for a game vs. ranked Wisconsin. The Badgers only beat Purdue by 5 points at home and had a 31-7 advantage at the FT line. Wisky may look past Rutgers, which is a scrappy low scoring team that is hard to beat by more than 16 points.
Rutgers is led by Myles Mack with 13.3 ppg and Kadeem Jack at 12 ppg while Wisconsin is led by Kaminsky, Dekker, Jackson and Hayes. Last year, the Badgers lost at Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana on the road in the Big Ten and only won by 14, 12, 13, 5 and 5 points on the road.
Take Rutgers +16 in this game that was set for 12 noon but moved to 6pm. I guess Wisconsin wanted to make sure they could watch the Packers on TV from 1 to 4pm and get ready for the Scarlet Knights at 6pm.
Kenpom has Wisconsin winning by 13.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
Bonus Play Rutgers +16
Rutgers is off a bad loss on the road and return home for a game vs. ranked Wisconsin. The Badgers only beat Purdue by 5 points at home and had a 31-7 advantage at the FT line. Wisky may look past Rutgers, which is a scrappy low scoring team that is hard to beat by more than 16 points.
Rutgers is led by Myles Mack with 13.3 ppg and Kadeem Jack at 12 ppg while Wisconsin is led by Kaminsky, Dekker, Jackson and Hayes. Last year, the Badgers lost at Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana on the road in the Big Ten and only won by 14, 12, 13, 5 and 5 points on the road.
Take Rutgers +16 in this game that was set for 12 noon but moved to 6pm. I guess Wisconsin wanted to make sure they could watch the Packers on TV from 1 to 4pm and get ready for the Scarlet Knights at 6pm.
Kenpom has Wisconsin winning by 13.
Art Aronson
Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
1* Bonus Play Florida Panthers
Florida has been on quite a roll of late and I think that momentum gets carried over here and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Panthers have lost five straight in the series. I also think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the lowly Oilers, they’ve clearly been playing “over their heads” in going 3-1-2 since a 1-14-6 slide, which includes a 5-2 win over Chicago on Friday. The Panthers come in filled with confidence, they’re 3-1-0 on a six-game road trip which included a 6-5 win at Calgary on Friday. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that Florida is 11-5 (+6.5 units) vs. clubs with losing records this year, while Edmonton is 1-5 (-4.5 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. I definitely feel that the PANTHERS are worth a second look in this one.
AAA Sports
Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
1* Bonus Play Florida Panthers
Florida has been on quite a roll of late and I think that momentum gets carried over here and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Panthers have lost five straight in the series. I also think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the lowly Oilers, they’ve clearly been playing “over their heads” in going 3-1-2 since a 1-14-6 slide, which includes a 5-2 win over Chicago on Friday. The Panthers come in filled with confidence, they’re 3-1-0 on a six-game road trip which included a 6-5 win at Calgary on Friday. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that Florida is 11-5 (+6.5 units) vs. clubs with losing records this year, while Edmonton is 1-5 (-4.5 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. I definitely feel that the PANTHERS are worth a second look in this one.
AAA Sports
Nick Parsons
Northwestern vs. Michigan State
Play on Northwestern. This is a (1*) Bonus Play
The Northwestern Wildcats come into this game against the Spartans having won four of their last five games. So far this season, the Wildcats put up on average 64.3 points a game while allowing 60.3. They shoot almost 43 percent from the field but allow their opponents to shoot 40 percent. Tre Demps is averaging 12.1 points to lead the team and adds 3.8 rebounds while Bryant McIntosh is averaging 11.8 points and 4.7 assists. Alex Olah also is averaging in double digits for the Wildcats. . Northwestern shoots 71.3 percent from the free throw, which could give them an advantage against the Spartans if it becomes a free throw shooting contest down the stretch. They held opponents to 61 or less points in five of their last seven games
The Michigan State Spartans have started to put it together, winning six of their last eight games. Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice lead the team in scoring averaging 14.1 points a game. Valentine adds 5.9 rebounds and Trice dishes out 5.9 assists a game for the Spartans. Branden Dawson is the third player averaging double-digit points and Matt Costello pulls down 6.2 rebounds. The Michigan State Spartans continue to come along as an offensive unit, with six players averaging at least seven points a game. As a whole, the Spartans average 74.1 points on 48 percent shooting and allow 60.1 points on 37.2 percent shooting. They need to improve from the line where they shoot just 63.8 percent. They defend the three well, allowing teams to shoot just 26.9 percent from deep.
This year the Spartans have been inconsistent in games, playing well for stretches and then playing badly allowing to come back. This is not a good thing if you are thinking of laying double digit points. In their last game, Iowa played them close until Michigan State pulled away in the end. Northwestern has played the Spartans tough spread wise and I see them staying within the points.
Northwestern vs. Michigan State
Play on Northwestern. This is a (1*) Bonus Play
The Northwestern Wildcats come into this game against the Spartans having won four of their last five games. So far this season, the Wildcats put up on average 64.3 points a game while allowing 60.3. They shoot almost 43 percent from the field but allow their opponents to shoot 40 percent. Tre Demps is averaging 12.1 points to lead the team and adds 3.8 rebounds while Bryant McIntosh is averaging 11.8 points and 4.7 assists. Alex Olah also is averaging in double digits for the Wildcats. . Northwestern shoots 71.3 percent from the free throw, which could give them an advantage against the Spartans if it becomes a free throw shooting contest down the stretch. They held opponents to 61 or less points in five of their last seven games
The Michigan State Spartans have started to put it together, winning six of their last eight games. Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice lead the team in scoring averaging 14.1 points a game. Valentine adds 5.9 rebounds and Trice dishes out 5.9 assists a game for the Spartans. Branden Dawson is the third player averaging double-digit points and Matt Costello pulls down 6.2 rebounds. The Michigan State Spartans continue to come along as an offensive unit, with six players averaging at least seven points a game. As a whole, the Spartans average 74.1 points on 48 percent shooting and allow 60.1 points on 37.2 percent shooting. They need to improve from the line where they shoot just 63.8 percent. They defend the three well, allowing teams to shoot just 26.9 percent from deep.
This year the Spartans have been inconsistent in games, playing well for stretches and then playing badly allowing to come back. This is not a good thing if you are thinking of laying double digit points. In their last game, Iowa played them close until Michigan State pulled away in the end. Northwestern has played the Spartans tough spread wise and I see them staying within the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Saint Bonaventure vs. Richmond
Bonus Play Saint Bonaventure
I'm taking the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday afternoon. The Richmond Spiders snapped a 3-game skid last time out, but we expect Chris Mooney's troops to fall right back into the loss column tonight, at least against the spread. The Spiders can't shoot from the deep perimeter, ranking 240th from behind the arc. They don't score much, averaging just 62.7 ppg; and they're horrible on the glass. Other than that...! When we look at their defensive numbers, first glance shows a team allowing just over 60 ppg. Sounds great. But lift the first layer and you'll see it's due to tempo not because of stellar defense. Richmond opponents are making 43% of their FGA and over 36% from the 3-point line. And again, Richmond averages almost 4 rebounds less per game than they allow. That's not the recipe for a cover from a 6-point favorite most times out. St. Bonnies hits the glass hard and they tally over 70 ppg. They aren't great defending the trey, but that shouldn't be a problem here. As mentioned above, the Spiders can't shoot from "area code 3." The Bonnies have four players averaging in double-digits with a 5th averaging over 9 ppg. Dion Wright averages 13 ppg and 8 rpg, and center Youssou Ndoye averages a double-double, throwing down almost 11 ppg, while grabbing 11.3 rpg. This team has some talent, for sure, while Richmond is basically a seven-man team. St. Bonaventure enters on a 5-1 ATS run on the road, while the Spiders enter on a 1-10 ATS slide off a SU win and they're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games, overall. I'm grabbing the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Saint Bonaventure vs. Richmond
Bonus Play Saint Bonaventure
I'm taking the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday afternoon. The Richmond Spiders snapped a 3-game skid last time out, but we expect Chris Mooney's troops to fall right back into the loss column tonight, at least against the spread. The Spiders can't shoot from the deep perimeter, ranking 240th from behind the arc. They don't score much, averaging just 62.7 ppg; and they're horrible on the glass. Other than that...! When we look at their defensive numbers, first glance shows a team allowing just over 60 ppg. Sounds great. But lift the first layer and you'll see it's due to tempo not because of stellar defense. Richmond opponents are making 43% of their FGA and over 36% from the 3-point line. And again, Richmond averages almost 4 rebounds less per game than they allow. That's not the recipe for a cover from a 6-point favorite most times out. St. Bonnies hits the glass hard and they tally over 70 ppg. They aren't great defending the trey, but that shouldn't be a problem here. As mentioned above, the Spiders can't shoot from "area code 3." The Bonnies have four players averaging in double-digits with a 5th averaging over 9 ppg. Dion Wright averages 13 ppg and 8 rpg, and center Youssou Ndoye averages a double-double, throwing down almost 11 ppg, while grabbing 11.3 rpg. This team has some talent, for sure, while Richmond is basically a seven-man team. St. Bonaventure enters on a 5-1 ATS run on the road, while the Spiders enter on a 1-10 ATS slide off a SU win and they're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games, overall. I'm grabbing the points with St. Bonaventure on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Sam Martin
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers 1:05PM
5* Dallas Cowboys
Reason: 5* Play on Dallas. Too many points to be giving a Dallas team that went a perfect 8-0 on the road this season, and with Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers nursing an injury we'll grab the points and look for this game to go down to the wire. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers we might have a different opinion, but as it stands the points are too good to pass up here.
Not the biggest fan of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo in a big-game situation, but they have a powerful running game which should play a big role in expected freezing temperatures. If Rodgers struggles at all in the passing game, then Green Bay is doomed as they won't be able to run on this Dallas defense. We see this game being decided by three points either way, or Dallas could pull away if Rodgers is more hurt than he's letting on. 5* Play on Dallas.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers 1:05PM
5* Dallas Cowboys
Reason: 5* Play on Dallas. Too many points to be giving a Dallas team that went a perfect 8-0 on the road this season, and with Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers nursing an injury we'll grab the points and look for this game to go down to the wire. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers we might have a different opinion, but as it stands the points are too good to pass up here.
Not the biggest fan of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo in a big-game situation, but they have a powerful running game which should play a big role in expected freezing temperatures. If Rodgers struggles at all in the passing game, then Green Bay is doomed as they won't be able to run on this Dallas defense. We see this game being decided by three points either way, or Dallas could pull away if Rodgers is more hurt than he's letting on. 5* Play on Dallas.
Sportswagers
Indianapolis @ DENVER
Indianapolis +8 -110 over DENVER
We saw the Ravens cover a big number yesterday that was never really in jeopardy. Had the Panthers not thrown a pick six in the final 5½ minutes they would have covered a big number too. In fact, the Panthers had that number covered practically the entire game and if you had the Seachickens like we did, you never felt comfortable until that pick six made it 30-10. The point is, these teams that have advanced with a playoff win under their belt look pretty dangerous, especially getting this much weight playing a team that has been off for two weeks. Besides that, the Broncos limped down the stretch, losing to Cincinnati after almost losing to Miami and needing two interceptions to beat the Bills with Peyton Manning looking like a shadow of his former self every time the weather got very cold. Denver did not play well out in San Diego either down the stretch, scoring a single TD with Manning coming in and going out of the game and coming back in. His passes looked brutal, resembling spirals not at all. It’s not frigid in Denver but it is hovering around zero Celsius so it’s not ideal either. Denver very much has the look of a fading wallflower and we’re not convinced that Manning is a better option than Andrew Luck in terms of physical ability. Manning’s playoff record doesn’t exactly stand out either. When you’re spotting eight points, you had better be sure your team will score the first TD otherwise you’ll be chasing the spread the entire game. Well, Denver's defense was supposed to be better this year but they are not. Last season it was 18th in the league in points allowed, and this season it's 17th. When Indy played here in Week 1, they outgained the Broncos with Luck throwing for 370 yards and that was when Manning was fresh as a daisy. He’s not so fresh after 16 games and four months of getting his already beaten up body battered some more week after week. There is no question that the Colts could take a 7-0 lead or stay within one score throughout.
Very seldom do we play on dogs that we don’t trust to have a chance of an outright win. That applies here as well. Indy’s defense put heat on Andy Dalton all game while Andrew Luck had all day to throw it. Give any QB in this league time and he’ll hit his targets in the numbers almost every time. Give a guy like Luck that much time and he’ll hit his targets spot on 95% of the time. Cinci was ultra conservative last week with an offensive game plan that a two-year-old could have drawn up better so we’re not going to put a lot of weight on what the Colts did to Cinci last week. That said, Luck has been good for multiple touchdowns in almost every game other than a couple of completely meaningless games down the stretch and when we look at Denver’s home schedule this season we see they have beaten Indy, K.C., Arizona, San Fran, San Diego, Oakland, Miami and Buffalo. Denver had nothing but trouble against every quality team they played this season both at home and on the road. Then there’s value. Denver at home with Peyton Manning as their QB is as popular as they come. When you wager on the Broncs at home you pay a premium to do so. The Colts go from a 4-point favorite to an 8-point dog, a difference of 12 points, in the span of one week. The Colts aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers, but you usually don’t live to tell about the time you spotted eight points to a (more than likely) future Hall of fame QB. As long as the refs don't get in the way, we gve the Colts a damn good chance for an outright win. Take the points.
Our Pick
Indianapolis +8 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Indianapolis @ DENVER
Indianapolis +8 -110 over DENVER
We saw the Ravens cover a big number yesterday that was never really in jeopardy. Had the Panthers not thrown a pick six in the final 5½ minutes they would have covered a big number too. In fact, the Panthers had that number covered practically the entire game and if you had the Seachickens like we did, you never felt comfortable until that pick six made it 30-10. The point is, these teams that have advanced with a playoff win under their belt look pretty dangerous, especially getting this much weight playing a team that has been off for two weeks. Besides that, the Broncos limped down the stretch, losing to Cincinnati after almost losing to Miami and needing two interceptions to beat the Bills with Peyton Manning looking like a shadow of his former self every time the weather got very cold. Denver did not play well out in San Diego either down the stretch, scoring a single TD with Manning coming in and going out of the game and coming back in. His passes looked brutal, resembling spirals not at all. It’s not frigid in Denver but it is hovering around zero Celsius so it’s not ideal either. Denver very much has the look of a fading wallflower and we’re not convinced that Manning is a better option than Andrew Luck in terms of physical ability. Manning’s playoff record doesn’t exactly stand out either. When you’re spotting eight points, you had better be sure your team will score the first TD otherwise you’ll be chasing the spread the entire game. Well, Denver's defense was supposed to be better this year but they are not. Last season it was 18th in the league in points allowed, and this season it's 17th. When Indy played here in Week 1, they outgained the Broncos with Luck throwing for 370 yards and that was when Manning was fresh as a daisy. He’s not so fresh after 16 games and four months of getting his already beaten up body battered some more week after week. There is no question that the Colts could take a 7-0 lead or stay within one score throughout.
Very seldom do we play on dogs that we don’t trust to have a chance of an outright win. That applies here as well. Indy’s defense put heat on Andy Dalton all game while Andrew Luck had all day to throw it. Give any QB in this league time and he’ll hit his targets in the numbers almost every time. Give a guy like Luck that much time and he’ll hit his targets spot on 95% of the time. Cinci was ultra conservative last week with an offensive game plan that a two-year-old could have drawn up better so we’re not going to put a lot of weight on what the Colts did to Cinci last week. That said, Luck has been good for multiple touchdowns in almost every game other than a couple of completely meaningless games down the stretch and when we look at Denver’s home schedule this season we see they have beaten Indy, K.C., Arizona, San Fran, San Diego, Oakland, Miami and Buffalo. Denver had nothing but trouble against every quality team they played this season both at home and on the road. Then there’s value. Denver at home with Peyton Manning as their QB is as popular as they come. When you wager on the Broncs at home you pay a premium to do so. The Colts go from a 4-point favorite to an 8-point dog, a difference of 12 points, in the span of one week. The Colts aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers, but you usually don’t live to tell about the time you spotted eight points to a (more than likely) future Hall of fame QB. As long as the refs don't get in the way, we gve the Colts a damn good chance for an outright win. Take the points.
Our Pick
Indianapolis +8 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
