Sunday 1/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Where the action is: NFL Playoffs biggest mid-week line moves
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since Sunday and while the majority of the money will come this weekend, sportsbooks have already gone toe-to-toe with wiseguys and don’t expect that fight to finish until kickoff.

We talk with Peter Childs about the action and line movement for the four divisional round games and where these odds could end up come game time.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Books are playing tennis with this number, opening at a touchdown and going back and forth between Green Bay -7 and -6.5, settling at -6.5 for the time being. Early money took the underdog Cowboys but Childs isn’t so sure the sharps are done having their way with his NFC Divisional Round war.

“No question, we have some serious liability if this game lands seven because of all the money we’ve booked on the Cowboys at +7 (-115) and Packers -6.5 (-110),” he says. “But by going to that key number of seven it’s giving us great, two-way action on this game because at 6.5, it’s nothing but Packers money and at 7 it’s nothing but Cowboys money. I’d prefer booking this game somewhat even with a touch of liability if the game falls. We’ll see what happens, but at this point I like how the money is coming in so far.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos – Open -7.5, Move: -7

Wiseguys grabbed the half-point hook on the Colts when this line went up and bookmakers trimmed the line to an even touchdown. However, money showed on the home side Broncos following that adjustment. Rather than go back to the original number, Childs says they’ve been juggling the juice on this touchdown spread.

“This is going to be an easy game to book, the number will remain seven for the rest of the week and we’re just going to have to adjust the juice from time to time, but I just can’t see us getting off of seven in this one,” he says.

Oddsmaker’s note: “In all four games we’re pretty exposed on all the underdogs in regards to the moneyline. That’s to be expected. It’s the playoffs and we’re starting to see more and more recreational money come in on these games. Just like the Super Bowl in years past, our customers love taking the plus juice and taking a chance on a big score by laying a few dollars in hopes the underdog can win outright, cashing a nice score at +250 or more.”

 

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round Playoffs
By JASON LOGAN

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6, 52.5)

Cowboys’ RB DeMarco Murray vs. Packers’ weakness to the run

Green Bay’s stop unit has looked a little better than it really is in recent weeks. The Packers defense has been a concern all season and got a break at the end of the year against some troubled offenses, taking on punchless teams like Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Detroit. This team allows 119.9 yards on the ground per game – 23rd in the NFL – and that’s a number that should be bigger if not for opponents having to abandon the run in order to keep pace with the Packers explosive offense.

The Cheese Heads are allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt and have been bowled over when trying to stop runners from moving the chains, with a 34.22 rushing first-down percentage on defense. They’ve given up an average of 7.2 first downs on runs and now face a Dallas offensive line that has paved the way for a record-setting year for its running back.

DeMarco Murray is a relentless runner that will battle for every yard. Behind that powerful o-line, and with the help off a dangerous passing game keeping linebackers honest, Murray led the league with 85 rushing first downs in the regular season, complementing his average of more than 115 yards rushing. The last time these teams met, a Week 15 shootout in Dallas, Murray exploded for 134 yards on 18 carries – 7.4 yards per run – and a touchdown.


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 54)

Colts’ tight end troubles vs. Broncos’ TE Julius Thomas

Thomas opened the season with a bang, reeling in seven catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 1 showdown with Indianapolis. That was the beginning of a tough season versus tight ends for the Colts, who allowed a total of 954 yards and 10 touchdowns to those big targets.

Indianapolis allowed 44 yards on four catches to Cincinnati’s tight ends in the Wild Card Round, watched Titans TE Delanie Walker grab seven balls for 43 yards in Week 17, and got toasted for 90 yards and a score on seven receptions from Dallas TE Jason Witten in Week 16. And those are just recent examples.

Thomas has been slowed by an ankle injury late in the year. But limited action and the extra week off has helped the Broncos' big man in the middle heal up before this postseason game. Thomas has been a beast in the red zone as well as on third down – an area Indianapolis is used to controlling. He’s totaled 182 yards and an average of 13 yards per reception on third down, with four of his 12 touchdowns coming on these snaps.

 

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Sunday's Top Action

Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)

NFC Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -6, Total: 53

The red-hot Cowboys head to Lambeau Field on Sunday for a Divisional Round playoff matchup with the Packers.

Dallas won its fifth straight game (4-1 ATS) last week when it edged out the Lions in a 24-20 win after trailing 17-7 at halftime, and now visits a Green Bay team that beat them 37-36 in Big D last season. But the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU (7-1 ATS) on the road this year, which sets up the first time in NFL history that an 8-0 road team is facing an 8-0 home club, as the Packers were 6-1-1 ATS at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay is 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) since the start of November and has dominated this series recently, winning-and-covering in three straight against Dallas. The last time the Cowboys beat the Packers was Sept. 21, 2008, which was their only win (either SU and ATS) in the past five games at Lambeau Field. Both teams have telling betting trends in this playoff matchup, as Dallas is 20-9 ATS in the underdog role under Jason Garrett, including 9-2 when getting between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Cowboys are also 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.

The Packers, meanwhile, are 10-0 ATS at home versus top-level teams (75%+ win pct.) in the second half of the season since 1992, and 9-1-1 ATS (11-0 SU) in games played on grass this year. QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 38 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past 16 home games (including playoffs), and should be amped for the opportunity to throw against the league's 26th-ranked pass defense. But his mobility could be limited because of a calf injury.

The only other injury concern for Green Bay is CB Davon House, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. For Dallas, LB Rolando McClain (head) and OT Doug Free (ankle) are both questionable.

The Cowboys got off to a slow start against the Lions, but they ultimately rallied back and won behind the excellent play of QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT). Romo threw for 293 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game. He led the Cowboys on a 59-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown pass to WR Terrance Williams (37 rec, 621 yards, 8 TD) to take the lead for good with under three minutes remaining in the game. Williams was excellent against the Lions, catching three passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns.

With the Packers defense likely throwing extra attention at top WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), Williams could see plenty of open space in this game as well. Bryant had just three catches for 48 yards against Detroit, and Dallas will need him to be much more effective against a Packers defense that is allowing just 226.4 passing YPG (10th in NFL).

The key to this game could be the running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD). Murray rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries last week and will now face a defense that is allowing 119.9 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL).

The ability to defend the run is a weakness for the Packers that Dallas will need to exploit in order to advance. During the Cowboys' 8-0 road record, they are outscoring host teams by 11.8 PPG.

Green Bay heads into this matchup with Dallas after winning-and-covering in its final two games of the regular season. The club put up an eye-popping 39.7 PPG in its eight home wins, while holding visitors to 20.4 PPG (19.3 PPG margin).

QB Aaron Rodgers (4,381 pass yards, 38 TD, 5 INT) now gets to face a Cowboys team that is miserable when defending the pass. In two home meetings against Dallas in the past five years, Rodgers has thrown for 239.0 yards per game with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll need to pick apart this secondary if the Packers are going to advance.

WRs Jordy Nelson (98 rec, 1,519 yards, 13 TD) and Randall Cobb (91 rec, 1,287 yards, 12 TD) will be the receivers that Rodgers is looking for when dropping back. Both pass catchers have been incredibly reliable this season and they should be able to find openings against a porous Cowboys secondary.

RB Eddie Lacy (1,139 rush yards, 9 TD) will also need to have a big game for this Packers team on Sunday. Lacy enters the postseason after having rushed for at least 97 yards in each of the final three games of the regular season. He has rushed for a touchdown in three of the past four games, and will need to tire out the Cowboys with his relentless style of running.

Defensively, this team allowed just 11.5 PPG over the final two weeks of the season and will need its secondary to remain solid against Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.


Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

AFC Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -7, Total: 54

The Colts will head to the Mile High City on Sunday for a playoff matchup with the Broncos.

Indianapolis dominated the Bengals last week in a 26-10 playoff victory at home and now visit a Denver team that is fresh off a bye. These teams last met in Week 1 when the Broncos won 31-24 as 8.5-point home favorites, which snapped a six-game SU win streak for the Colts in this series, and extended their ATS win streak to seven in this matchup.

Since 1992, Indianapolis is 22-7 ATS after two straight double-digit wins, and the team is also 10-2 ATS after outgaining its opponent by 100+ total yards in its previous game over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 21-10 ATS in the past three seasons when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, and is 16-3 ATS when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992. A lot of those wins for the Colts did, however, come when Peyton Manning was playing for Indianapolis. This game will have a very interesting storyline with Manning facing his former team and Andrew Luck going up against the Hall of Famer he replaced.

While the Colts have some offensive line concerns with OT Gosder Cherilus (groin) out and G Hugh Thornton (shoulder) questionable, the Broncos have four questionable players in OT Orlando Franklin (concussion), LB Brandon Marshall (foot), DB T.J. Ward and S David Bruton (concussion).

The Colts didn’t face much of a challenge in a matchup with the Bengals last week, allowing just 254 total yards in a 26-10 victory. Over the past two weeks, Indianapolis’ defense has allowed just 10.0 PPG, but this Broncos team is a whole different animal. The Colts will need to really be on their game on Sunday or they’ll be shredded by Peyton Manning’s offense.

QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) was excellent against the Bengals, going 31-of-44 for 376 yards with a touchdown and no picks. Luck threw for 370 yards with two touchdowns, but also two interceptions, in the Week 1 meeting with the Broncos, adding 19 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If Luck had limited his turnovers, the Colts might have been able to win that season opener, and ball security could be difficult versus a Denver defense with 2+ takeaways in five straight games.

Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) had six catches for 103 yards against the Bengals. He did, however, see 14 targets in the game and he’ll need to haul in more of his looks on Sunday. He is Luck’s go-to-receiver who gained a mere 41 yards on his 11 targets in the Sept. 7 meeting with the Broncos. WR Reggie Wayne (64 rec, 778 yards, 2 TD) did the most damage versus Denver that game with nine catches for 98 yards.

RB Daniel Herron (351 rush yards, 1 TD) didn’t touch the football in that Week 1 meeting, but rushed for 56 yards and a touchdown while catching 10 passes for 85 yards in the win over Cincinnati. However, Herron fumbled the ball twice and lost one of them. He can’t afford to put the ball on the ground and put Denver's high-powered offense in great field position.

The Broncos are fresh off their bye and enter this game after winning five of their final six regular season games.

QB Peyton Manning (4,727 pass yards, 39 TD, 15 INT) faces his old team for the second time this season, but this one is different. Manning now has the chance to eliminate the Colts, a team he threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against in Week 1. The future Hall of Fame quarterback really struggled down the stretch though, throwing for just three touchdowns with six interceptions over the final four weeks of the year. He’ll need to get back on track in this one, or it will be very difficult for the Broncos to move on.

WRs Demaryius Thomas (111 rec, 1,619 yards, 11 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (101 rec, 1,404 yards, 9 TD) both have the ability to get open at will, so Manning will just need to deliver the ball to them in a timely manner on Sunday.

One thing that has made up for the poor play of Manning has been the running of RB C.J. Anderson (849 rush yards, 8 TD). Anderson rushed for seven touchdowns over the final four weeks of the year and enters the playoffs after having gained more than 83 yards in three straight games.

The Broncos defense allowed 17 or less points in four of their final five regular season games. They’ll need to slow down the Colts’ air attack in order to advance to the AFC championship game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Conference semi-finals

Cowboys (13-4) @ Packers (12-4)-- Rodgers has partial tear in calf, hasn't practiced lot this week (if at all), but is expected to play. Packers are 8-0 at home, Dallas 8-0 on road- six of last seven teams that went 8-0 on road make it to the Super Bowl. Green Bay won last three series games, winning 37-36 in Dallas LY, when Pack trailed 26-3 at halftime. Packers are 1-3 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, with two of three losses at home; they covered six of last seven at home overall. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 9-6 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 6-7. Romo is from Wisconsin; when he was senior in HS, was runner-up to Caron Butler for state's HS Athlete of Year. Cowboys covered four of five as an underdog this season.

Colts (12-5) @ Broncos (12-4)-- Denver (-7.5) beat Colts 31-24 in season opener, game they led 24-7 at half; Broncos are 2-2 in playoffs in Manning era, 2-1 home- they're 4-4 as home favorite this year. Indy is 3-6 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl, 0-2 on road in Luck era, losing 24-9/43-22 last two years. Colts had won six in row in series before Week 1 loss, but Manning played for Indy in five of those six- Colts' last three losses are by 35-22-17 points. Patriots ran for 244 yards vs Indy, would expect similar approach from Denver, which ran ball for 149.3 ypg over last six games. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-7 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 8-5. Five of last six Denver home games still went over total.

 

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Sharp Moves - Divisional Playoffs
By Mike Rose

Wild Card

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of playoff betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out how the odds break down in Divisional Weekend of the postseason!

Rotation 117/118) – Cowboys (52) at Packers (-5.5) Word of QB Aaron Rodgers' slightly torn calf muscle is what is really getting bettors in a tizzy in this one. The betting percentages are rather split, as 54 percent of the wagers have come in on the Packers. However, the line has been trending the opposite direction in the last two days with the news that Rodgers still hasn't practiced. The opening line was Green Bay -6.5. It's notable as well, that the Packers have lost three of their last four playoff games, and two of those losses came here at home. The 'total' is down a point from the opening number of 53.


(Rotation 119/120) – Colts (54) at Broncos (-7) Strangely, there hasn't been any movement on this line whatsoever, which means the oddsmakers did a great job in lining it. The 'total' is up just a tick from 53.5 to 54, but aside from that, nothing has changed. Even the tendencies are firm, as both sides have garnered exactly half of the bets. This should be a great duel between QB Peyton Manning and the man who was essentially drafted to replace him, QB Andrew Luck.

 

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Playoff Bye Analysis
By Tony Mejia

By Sunday night, we'll know the identity of the NFL's final four. In breaking down the weekend's playoff action, there are a host of variables in play.

How hurt is Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers? How cold and intrusive will the weather be? Will there be more flags picked up, or will any egregious officiating errors come in other forms?

All those are obviously unknowns, but there is one x-factor that we know from recent history may play a major role. Simply put, if you rested last week, the odds are certainly in your favor to move on to a conference championship game.


Off a Bye Records (2007-2014)

Team SU Record (Home) ATS Record (Home)

Denver 7-1 (3-0) 7-1 (3-0)
Green Bay 7-1 (3-0) 7-0-1 (3-0)
Overall 23-9 (7-0) 20-9-3 (4-2-1)

Looking at the above table, the Packers, Broncos and Patriots have all been tremendous coming off their regular-season bye week, which should translate to success in this round since preparations are similar.

In Green Bay, the Packers have made no secret of the fact Rodgers hasn't been at 100 percent, so the week off they earned by handling Detroit and winning the NFC North in Week 17 has been invaluable. Rodgers has the most famous left calf in the world at the moment, injuring it against the Lions on Dec. 28. Reports are that he's suffered a slight tear, and even he doesn't know how the extent of the damage will affect him since he hasn't practiced, opting for rest and treatment in preparation for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.

Temperatures are expected to be in single-digits, too, so there's no telling whether that will prevent him from getting loose, but the bye week certainly improved his chances. It also doesn't hurt that the combination of him and head coach Mike McCarthy coming off bye weeks has been overwhelmingly positive. McCarthy took over in Green Bay in 2006 and has gone 8-1 straight up after a regular-season off week, 8-0-1 against the spread. That includes a couple of Brett Favre starts, but Rodgers is 6-1 SU in that situation. If he's closer to 90 percent healthy than 50 percent, as some have speculated, the bye week could be the difference, especially with Tony Romo and the Cowboys coming off such an emotionally taxing comeback win over the Lions.

The postseason picture in the AFC has pointed to a collision course between New England and Denver for months now, and bye week numbers would certainly back the inevitability of them vying for a trip to the Super Bowl next weekend. Over the last seven seasons, the Patriots and Broncos are a combined 13-3 SU coming off a bye. That those numbers even account for the presence of one Tim Tebow suggests that both organizations really know what they're doing with that extra juice in their legs.

John Fox is a perfect 4-0 in that situation during the regular season, winning three of those with Peyton Manning. That said, his best season in Carolina, that 12-4 campaign in 2008, ended in this exact situation when the Arizona Cardinals strolled into Charlotte and pasted the Panthers by 20, eventually making it to a Super Bowl where they fell just short against Pittsburgh. The Fox-led Broncos also fell short in 2012 in this situation, at home for an AFC Divisional playoff game coming off a bye, when Joe Flacco hit that miracle 70-yard strike to Jacoby Jones to force OT, eventually breaking hearts all over Denver. The Broncos rebounded last year at home against San Diego, going up 17-0 and holding on for a 24-17 win that failed to cover. Of the four teams we're looking at on this bye week angle, Denver would unquestionably be the weakest.

 

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Key betting stats for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round

We're just as excited as you are for the NFL's Divisional Round this weekend, but if you've been slacking in your capping, we have you covered. Here's a look at some key betting stats for each of the four games on tap to give you a hand before you get in on the action.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 53)

- Tony Romo is 1-2 in his career when game-time temperatures are 32 degrees or lower with a 26.0 Total QBR.

- Including playoffs, Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an INT at home in last 477 passes.

- Packers outscored opponents by an average of 18 points at Lambeau Field this season.

- Cowboys/Packers game is the first playoff game in NFL history where a team that went 8-0 at home meets a team that went 8-0 on the road.

- Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine career playoff games.

- Cowboys QB Tony Romo is 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in five career playoff games.

- The Dallas Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game in 22 years (last time was 1992 NFC title game at San Francisco). Lost six in a row.

- The Packers’ 5 home losses in the playoffs since 2002 are the most in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 54)

- Andrew Luck's 1438 passing yards are the most of any QB ever through their first four playoff starts

- Broncos QB Peyton Manning is 11-12 SU and 9-13 ATS (one pick em) in 23 career playoff games.

- Colts QB Andrew Luck is 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in four career playoff starts.

- During regular season, Colts allowed NFL-high 20 pass TD on the road (QBR: 54.6), 7 pass TD at home (QBR: 27.1).

- If you combine Andrew Luck's pass & rush yds, he accounted for 77.4% of Colts offense in 2014, highest % among remaining QBs in the playoffs.

- Peyton Manning has lost his first playoff game in a season eight times. No other QB in NFL history has more than 4.

- In the past five games Peyton Manning has completed 39% of his red zone passes for three touchdowns, one interception and a QBR of 18.

- Andrew Luck has 3 straight 300-yd passing games in postseason, 1 shy of tying Hall of Famer Dan Fouts for longest such postseason streak.

- Peyton Manning-to-Demaryius Thomas vs. Vontae Davis in 2 previous games: 1 reception, 8 yards, 39.6 passer rating.

- Peyton Manning was pressured on an NFL-low 13% of dropbacks this season.

 

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Head official for IND-DEN could be trouble for Colts
Stephen Campbell

Veteran referee Bill Leavy will serve as the head official for Indianapolis' Divisional Round clash with Denver, something Colts backers won't be thrilled with.

Since Andrew Luck took over the reigns under center, the Colts are 0-3 straight-up in games with Leavy in charge, including their embarrassing 42-7 loss to Dallas just over two weeks ago. Indianapolis is coming off of a 26-10 victory over Cincinnati in Wild Card weekend while Peyton Manning and the Broncos are fully rested after earning a first round bye.

As of 12:30 p.m. EST Friday, Indianapolis was listed as 7-point road dogs for the game.

 

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Stephen Campbell

Cold temperatures are expected to play a factor at Gillette Stadium and Lambeau Field in the NFL's Divisional Round this weekend, but does that give as much of an advantage to the home team as you would think?

Eight games were played in temperatures of 31 degrees or less this season. Home sides in those matchups went 5-3 against the spread and 6-2 straight-up - a trend that will surely appeal to Patriots and Packers bettors as kickoff draws closer.

Five of the eight contests also went Under the total. The Over/Under is sitting at 47.5 for BAL-NE and 52 for DAL-GB.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Sunday
By Chris David

Two more Divisional Playoff games slated for Sunday and both weather and injuries are expected to play a role. Despite those two key handicapping factors, bettors are staring at the two highest totals of this year’s playoffs.

As mentioned in my other postseason columns, I’m going to keep analyzing each total and offer up my quick handicap and prediction on all of the postseason matchups.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Sunday, Jan. 11

Dallas at Green Bay

This matchup has received the most attention all week due to the status of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It was reported earlier this week that he has a tear in his calf. He was designated as ‘probable’ for Sunday and his mobility is expected to be fine but the line movement towards the Cowboys doesn’t have many believing that.

Oddsmakers sent out a number of 53 and that’s held steady all week. A few shops went to 52, which is a key number (31-21, 28-24) in the totals market.

Dallas has had five totals listed in the fifties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in games listed with the total at 50 points or more.

The weather at Lambeau Field is expected to have frigid temperatures but the 1:00 p.m. ET start should diminish the role of the elements.

If Rodgers plays to his MVP ability and the weather is somewhat decent, I find it very hard not to back the ‘over’ in this spot, especially when you look at all the numbers.

The Cowboys have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 on the road behind an offense that is averaging 34.4 points per game, ranked first in the league. Meanwhile, Green Bay has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 at Lambeau and its attack is ranked first in scoring at home with 39.8 PPG.

Defensively, the Packers (21.8 PPG) and Cowboys (21.9) are mirrors of one another and they’re both middle of the road units.

The playoff sample for the Cowboys with Tony Romo at QB is only five games, which includes last week’s 24-20 home win against Detroit. During this span, Dallas has played two road games under Romo and its gone 0-2 those games, losing 21-20 and 34-3.

Rodgers has started nine playoff games for Green Bay and the team has gone 5-4. The biggest surprise is that record includes 1-2 mark at home and the Packers have scored 20, 24 and 20 points in those games. Offensively, Rodgers has been more productive on the road in the playoffs, especially during his Super Bowl run in the 2010 season. In these nine games, the ‘over’ has gone 5-4.

The last 10 meetings between the pair have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3. Last season with backup QB Matt Flynn under center, the Packers nipped the Cowboys 37-36 on the road. The combined 73 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 50.

Green Bay has been a solid regular season bet off the bye under head coach Mike McCarthy, who has won seven of his last eight with rest, three of the victories coming at home. During this span, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 and that can be attributed to the Packers defense, which has allowed an average of 14.5 PPG.

Fearless Prediction: If you’re betting ‘over’ tickets, you understand how important touchdowns are compared to field goals. With that being said, Green Bay was tied for first with 58 TDs this season while Dallas was third with 56. These teams find the endzone and that alone makes me lean to the ‘over’ 52 in this game. The Rodgers injury does make me a little hesitant but even if he’s not 100 percent, I still believe he can put up five scores on this Cowboys defense. I also believe Dallas can match points with the Packers but will eventually come up short in a high-scoring affair.

Indianapolis at Denver

This total opened at 53 and has moved to 54 as of Friday and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another hook added by kickoff. Denver (30.1 PPG) and Indianapolis (28.5 PPG) are both ranked sixth or higher in points scored and those numbers get better for this matchup. The Broncos are averaging 35.4 PPG at home this season, while the Colts have been produced an average of 29.2 on the road. Those stats have helped the Colts go 5-3 to the ‘over’ on the road while the Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 at home.

After looking at those stats, most would run to the counter and play ‘over’ tickets, myself included.

I spoke to NFL handicapper Paul Bovi, who specializes in totals and he provided more reason to back the ‘over’ or at least expect Denver to do its part.

He said, “When facing formidable competition, the Indianapolis defense has been exposed. Big Ben crushed them 500-plus yards and 6 scores, Romo was nearly perfect as he tossed four touchdowns and New England punched them in the mouth for 246 rushing yards. The unit doesn’t have any particular strength and certainly helped their overall numbers against weaker foes.”

To be fair, the Colts did hold the Bengals and Ravens to a combined 23 points in three games and those teams did make the playoffs. However, Indianapolis allowed 31, 51, 42 and 42 points in matchups against the Broncos, Steelers, Patriots and Cowboys respectively.

Including last week’s win, the Colts are 2-2 in the playoffs under QB Andrew Luck and the two losses came on the road. The total has gone 2-2 and Indy has scored a combined 31 points in the road setbacks.

Since Peyton Manning joined Denver, the Broncos have gone 2-2 in the playoffs and the ‘over/under’ owns a 2-2 mark. Outside of the eight-point effort in last year’s Super Bowl, the Broncos have scored 26, 24 and 35 points.

Denver and Indianapolis have played in each of the last two regular seasons.

2014 - Denver 31 Indianapolis 24 Over 53.5
2013 - Indianapolis 39 Denver 33 Over 55

Denver scored on all four of its first drives and led 24-0 at halftime in this year’s meeting and held on for the win. The Colts were fortunate to earn a cover and cash ‘over’ tickets for bettors as they scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes of the game.

Fearless Prediction: It’s clear that Denver wants to play efficient football and score touchdowns by moving the chains with equally balanced offense. Even though the Broncos will have a slower pace, I can’t see this Colts team stopping them. With that being said, I like the OVER 30 team total for Denver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Divisional Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Cowboys at Packers (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST – FOX

The last time Dallas traveled to Lambeau Field in the postseason, it was the famed Ice Bowl of 1967 in which the Packers won in the final seconds en route to capturing the first ever Super Bowl title. The weather won’t be as frigid as that day (-13 at kickoff), but game temperatures are expected to be in the low 20’s on Sunday as the Packers hope the slight tear in Aaron Rodgers’ left calf holds up.

Rodgers suffered the injury throwing a touchdown pass in the Week 17 home victory over the Lions to wrap up the NFC North title, finishing the regular season with a perfect 8-0 record at Lambeau Field. The Packers eclipsed the 30-point mark in seven of eight home wins, including a 30-20 win against Detroit for the franchise’s fourth straight division championship. Green Bay helped out backers when playing at home by compiling a 6-1-1 ATS record, with the lone ATS loss coming to Atlanta in Week 14 as heavy 13 ½-point favorites.

The Cowboys captured the NFC East title with a 12-4 record, which included the league’s only unbeaten road mark at 8-0. Dallas erased a 14-0 deficit in last Sunday’s 24-20 victory in the Wild Card round over Detroit for the franchise’s second postseason win since 1997. The Cowboys failed to cover as six-point favorites, but Tony Romo connected with Terrance Williams for an eight-yard touchdown in the final minutes to give Dallas the lead for good.

These teams didn’t meet up this season, but played one of the most entertaining games of the 2013 campaign. The Cowboys built a 26-3 lead over the Packers at Cowboys Stadium last December, but Green Bay rallied to stun Dallas, 37-36 as four-point underdogs. Rodgers sat out with a collarbone injury, as Matt Flynn engineered the comeback with four touchdown passes, while Eddie Lacy’s one-yard touchdown plunge in the final two minutes lifted Green Bay.

Since Green Bay won Super Bowl XLV over Pittsburgh four years ago, the Packers have lost three of their past four playoff games, including home contests to San Francisco (2013) and the N.Y. Giants (2011). The last time the Cowboys won a road postseason contest came way back in 1992 at Candlestick Park against the 49ers, the first of title of the 1990’s dynasty for Dallas.

Joe Nelson gives his spin on this matchup, “All eyes will be on Rodgers as the potential MVP battles a calf injury. It was revealed that there is a tear in addition to the strain on the muscle and while he will certainly suit up and play he has not been able to practice significantly. Expect some changes in the game plan for the Packers with Lacy likely taking on a bigger role and enabling quick throws under pressure being a priority. Rodgers is unquestionably considered one of the top players in the NFL, but his playoff track record since the Super Bowl XLV win has been less impressive.”

The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point home favorites, but that number has dipped to 5 ½ at most spots with Rodgers’ injury. The total is hovering between 51 ½ and 52 ½, as the Packers are 5-3 to the ‘over’ on totals above 50, while the Cowboys are 3-2 to the ‘over’ in game with totals of 50 or higher.

Colts at Broncos (-7, 54) – 4:40 PM EST – CBS

The winner of this game heads to New England next Sunday for the AFC Championship, as both teams lost to the Patriots this season. First things first is to get through the divisional round, as the Colts began the 2014 campaign at Denver and fell to the Broncos, 31-24. Now, Andrew Luck looks for his first road win in the postseason, trying to knock off a former Colts’ legend in Peyton Manning.

The Broncos finished the regular season at 12-4 for their fourth straight AFC West championship, as two of those defeats came to the top seeds in each conference (New England and Seattle). Denver was one of three playoff teams to put together a perfect 8-0 record at home, but John Fox’s team covered only four times at Sports Authority Field. Only two home wins came against postseason clubs (Arizona and Indianapolis), while topping the 31-point mark in six of those home victories.

The Colts advanced to the divisional round for the second straight season by eliminating the Bengals, 26-10 in the Wild Card round as 3 ½-point favorites. Luck threw for 376 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown strike to Donte Moncrief in the third quarter to put the game out of reach. Indianapolis reached the end zone just twice, while kicking four field goals to finish its home schedule at 7-2.

Back in the seven-point victory in Week 1, the Broncos jumped out to a 24-0 advantage in the second quarter behind three Manning touchdown passes. Luck rushed for a touchdown in the final minute of the first half, which jump-started Indianapolis’ rally in the second half. The Colts had an opportunity to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, but fell short in a 31-24 setback, while covering as eight-point underdogs.

Luck and the Colts are 0-2 on the road in the postseason with both losses coming by double-digits at Baltimore (2012) and New England (2013). Manning has split four playoff games since signing with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season, while losing six of his past eight postseason starts since 2010 dating back to his days with the Colts.

Nelson breaks down this matchup, “For a defense that has taken severe criticism, the Colts allowed just 15 more points compared with the Broncos this season and in six of the last nine games counting last week’s win against Cincinnati, Indianapolis has allowed 24 or fewer points. The Colts did allow 42 or more points in three of the last 10 games as there were some notable high profile failures for this team. With the highest total of the week many are expecting a shootout and both teams did average more than 28 points per game this season. Both teams have had some great moments on defense as well and late in the season the running game proved more at the forefront of the game plans at times.”

The Broncos are currently a seven-point favorite, although most books will make you pay a bit of extra juice to lay the touchdown at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100 on Denver -7). The total sits between 53 ½ and 54, as the Week 1 contest between these teams closed at 53. The Colts began the season at 9-3 to the ‘over,’ but are riding a five-game ‘under’ streak. Denver hit the ‘over’ in six of eight of home contests, while going 4-0 to the ‘over’ in games with totals listed above 50 this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Divisional Round betting preview: Cowboys at Packers, Colts at Broncos

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 52)

The health of Aaron Rodgers is the focal point in an otherwise marquee matchup between the second-seeded Green Bay Packers and visiting Dallas Cowboys on Sunday in the NFC Divisional Round. Rodgers is dealing with a slight tear in his left calf sustained in the regular-season finale and practiced on a limited basis Thursday. No. 3 seed Dallas, which beat Detroit in its playoff opener, is making its first postseason trip to Green Bay since the Ice Bowl in 1967.

Rodgers' importance to the Packers cannot be overstated - he threw 25 touchdowns versus zero interceptions to help Green Bay finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field. "He's obviously very important to our football team," said Packers coach Mike McCarthy, who estimated that Rodgers took 50 to 60 percent of the reps Thursday in his first practice since he was hurt. "We have a game plan. He did everything we asked of him today." The Cowboys, who are in the postseason for the first time since 2009, are a perfect 8-0 away home, marking the third time in playoff history an unbeaten road team will take on an undefeated home squad.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at GB -6.5, sharp money quickly moved the line to -6. With reports of Aaron Rodgers supposed calf tear, the line dropped to -5.5. The total has dropped a full point from opening at 53 to 52.

INJURY REPORT: COWBOYS - T Doug Free (Doub-Ankle), LB Ronaldo McClain (Prob-Concussion), DE Jeremy Mincy (Prob-Concussion) PACKERS - QB Aaron Rodgers (Prob-Calf), CB Davon House (Prob-Shoulder)

WEATHER FORECAST: A mostly cloudy and frigid afternoon is expected at Lambeau with temperatures around 15-20°F. Winds are not expected to play a major factor, only blowing around 3 MPH.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Cowboys look to keep their undefeated skein away from home this season in tact today on the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field, where the Packers were bounced in a one-and done here in the playoffs last year. Condition of QB Aaron Rodgers calf injury is key with Green Bay 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS this season in games versus .600 or greater opponents. Also check the thermometer as this could be Dallas’ first game in sub freezing temperatures this season." - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We’ve seen the gamut of gambling on this one, mostly due to the injury news with Rodgers. We knew we’d get a lot of Dallas wagers because we always do, but even before the news about the calf tear we got public and sharp money on the Cowboys. The dead number didn’t last long before Packers money started coming back in and pushing the spread back to -6. With the weather, and curiousness of how effective Rodgers can be this is a strange situation." John Lester.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (13-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): A pair of controversial non-penalty calls took the luster off Dallas' comeback from a 13-point, second-half deficit behind 293 yards and two touchdown passes from Tony Romo, who has 20 scoring passes versus two interceptions in the eight road games. DeMarco Murray, the league's leading rusher with 1,845 yards, ran for 75 on 19 carries a week ago and was instrumental in Dallas' success away from home, reaching 100 yards in seven of the eight games. Dez Bryant led with NFL with 16 touchdowns and surpassed 1,200 yards for the third straight season and Terrance Williams had a pair of touchdown receptions last week. Murray's ability to control the clock can help a defense that ranked 26th in the league, allowing 251.9 yards per game.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 11-5 O/U): Rodgers had a spectacular season, throwing for 4,381 yards with 38 touchdowns versus only five interceptions while extending his NFL records of 418 pass attempts with being picked off at home - a span in which he has thrown 36 scoring passes. Jordy Nelson is Rodgers' top target with 98 catches for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns while fellow wideout Randall Cobb was equally as dangerous with 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 scores. Second-year running back Eddie Lacy overcame a slow start to average 98.7 rushing yards for the season on his way to 1,139 yards and nine touchdowns. Although Green Bay permitted an average of 119.9 yards on the ground, it nearly cut its total in half over the second half of the season.

TRENDS:

*Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
*Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 home games.
*Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
*Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

CONSENSUS: 53.54 percent are backing the Packers -5.5, with 60.8 percent on the over.


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7, 53.5)

The careers of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck will forever be linked after the Indianapolis Colts let the five-time MVP go in order to select Luck with the top pick in the 2012 draft. The Colts hit the jackpot with Luck, who will face a daunting task when he leads Indianapolis into Denver to face Manning and the No. 2-seeded Broncos in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round. Manning is 1-1 against his former team, including a 31-24 victory in Week 1.

Much like he did with the Colts, Manning has re-established a standard of excellence with the Broncos and is looking to make a return trip to the Super Bowl after getting demolished by Seattle last season. Manning guided Denver to an 8-0 record at home this season and is 22-2 at Mile High since joining the Broncos prior to the 2012 season. “We’re excited and looking forward to the postseason,” Manning said. "This is why you work so hard all season to get this opportunity. Playoff football takes on different twists and turns. You’re going to play some really good football teams.”

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line of DEN -7 has not shifted all week. The total opened at 53 with books quickly jumping to 54, but has been bet down to 53.5.

INJURY REPORT: COLTS - CB Greg Toler (Prob-Knee), C Jonotthan HArrison (Prob-Concussion), LB Jerrell Freeman (Prob-Abdominal), LB Erik Walden (Prob-Knee) BRONCOS - S T.J. Ward (Prob-Neck), G Orlando Franklin (Prob-Concussion), LB Brandon Marshall (Ques-Foot)

WEATHER FORECAST: As the game goes on there will be a low 15 percent chance of snow with temperatures falling from 42°F at kickoff to 33°F by the fourth quarter. Winds are expected to blow around 3 MPH.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of two teams that each own Top 10 ranked offenses and defenses finds the Colts in quest of back-to-back playoff victories for the first time since Peyton Manning was their quarterback back in 2009. To do so QB Andrew Luck will need to improve on his dismal 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS NFL career mark in away games versus winning opponents. On the flip side Manning is just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS with rest during the postseason. One last note: Colts own a death-grip on this series of late, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS - albeit largely with Manning at the helm." - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We felt very good setting this line initially and it hasn’t budged, which means we’ve done our job. Personally, I’m still in the camp that the Colts can keep this one close, and even pull off the upset. It will all depend on the protection Luck gets. Has Denver’s uptick in defense of late been a product of poor opponents or is it really clicking? That’s a big factor to handicap." John Lester.

ABOUT THE COLTS (12-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Indianapolis, the fourth seed after winning the AFC South title, opened the playoffs with a 26-10 home victory over Cincinnati as Luck threw for 376 yards and a touchdown. Luck led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes while throwing for 4,761 yards and will continue to look for wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who had six catches for 103 yards last week and has amassed 496 receiving yards in his first four postseason games - the second-highest total in league history (Larry Fitzgerald, 546). Daniel Herron rushed for 56 yards and caught 10 passes for 85 yards, but also committed a pair of fumbles. Indy limited the Bengals to 254 total yards but permitted at least 31 points in half its eight road games.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 10-6 O/U): Unlike last season, when Manning threw a record-setting 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards, the Broncos have relied on the legs of C.J. Anderson down the stretch. Anderson took over the starter midway through the season and finished with 849 yards while scoring an NFL-best seven touchdowns in December, giving Denver a complement to a high-powered passing game featuring Demaryius Thomas (1,619 yards, 11 TDs) and Emmanuel Sanders (1,404, nine TDs), who combined for 212 catches. Manning still put up stellar numbers, throwing for 4,727 yards with 39 TDs and 15 interceptions, but he had twice as many picks (six) as scoring passes (four) over the final four games. The Broncos ranked second in the league, permitting 79.8 yards rushing per game.

TRENDS:

*Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games overall.
*Over is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 50.70 percent are taking the Broncos -7, with 67.8 percent on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Small chance of snow as Broncos host Colts Sunday
Andrew Avery

Weather forecasts are calling for a small 10 percent chance of snow at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver as the Broncos host the Indianapolis Colts in Divisional Round playoff action Sunday.

Temperatures in Denver will begin in the low-40s and drop as the game progresses. As it stands, wind shouldn't play too much of a factor as it will blow across the field at around 3 mph.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

DALLAS (13 - 4) at GREEN BAY (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 1:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 84-58 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 4:40 PM

Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Dallas

INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Sun, Jan. 11

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 EST

Dallas
8-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in road games against conference opponents
14-4 OVER in road games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game

Green Bay
57-36 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs
7-1 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents
7-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, 4:40 EST

Indianapolis
17-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
17-8 ATS against conference opponents
22-7 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points
27-13 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Denver
19-34 ATS off a home win against a division rival
89-57 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
15-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Duke won three in row, 13 of last 15 games vs NC State, but they've lost two of last three visits here; Blue Devils are 14-0, winning only two true road games by 10 at Wisconsin, 8 at Wake Forest, their only win by less than 10 points. Wolfpack is 3-4 in last seven games, with last three losses by 10+ points. Duke made 43.6% of its 3-pointers in first two ACC tilts; ACC home underdogs are 2-4 vs spread.

Road team won both UMass-George Mason games LY, with an average total of 173; Minutemen lost six of last nine games, four of last five on road, but won last game at LaSalle. Neither teams shoots 30% from arc; Mason turns ball over 20.3% of time- they're 4-2 vs teams outside top 100. UMass hasn't won two games in row since November. A-14 home teams are 5-2 vs spread in games with spread of 6 or less points.

Loyola was 10-22 LY, is 12-3 this year; they lost by 14-12 points in two games vs Wichita LY, Ranblers' first in MVC. Loyola lost only two top 90 games, by 35 at Michigan State, 9 at Northern Iowa. Wichita State is 13-3, winning first three Valley games by 8-8-20 points- they're 3-1 on road, with no wins by more than nine points. MVC home underdogs are 3-2 against the spread.

Home side won eight of last ten Illinois State-Missouri State games; ISU lost four of last five visits here, last two by 7-8 points. Bears also beat ISU in Arch Madness last March. Redbirds lost last two road games, at Murray State by 12, Wichita by 8- they're 3-6 vs top 200 teams. Bears are making 38.7% from arc, 79.3% on foul line (#1). MVC home teams are 5-2 vs spread in games with spread of less than 4 points.

Richmond won five of last seven games vs St Bonaventure, with last two wins by total of seven points; Bonnies lost last three visits here by 17-3-2 points, as home side won last five in series. Bonnies lost four of last six games, with two losses to teams outside top 200, but they're 3-2 on road with win at UMass. Seven of Spiders' last 11 games were decided by 5 or less points. A-14 home favorites are 4-6 vs spread.

Memphis won five of last six games with Houston, losing 77-68 here in LY's visit; Cougars lost 73-54 in Memphis 11 days ago, shooting 31.3% from floor. Tigers have very young guards- they're only 8-6, scoring 62.5 ppg in last two games, losses to Tulane/SMU. Tigers turn ball over 23% of time. Houston lost its last three games. AAC home teams are 4-2 vs spread in games with spread of less than six points.

UCLA snapped 5-game skid with double OT win over Stanford in last game, despite missing 15 FTs; Bruins won three of last four games with Cal, after losing five of previous six games with Bears, who lost last two visits here by 14-12 points. Cal lost four of last five games, scoring 57 or less points in three of four losses- they have road wins at Fresno/Nevada but lost at USC Thursday. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-3-1 vs spread.

Syracuse shot 53% inside arc, had 17 offensive boards in 74-58 road win at Florida State LY, teams' first ACC meeting; Orange won their first two ACC games this year by total of 3 points, both on road- they're forcing turnovers 23% of time. FSU won five of last six games, but lost both its road games, by 20 at Notre Dame, by 7 at Mississippi State. ACC home favorites are 5-5 vs spread, 3-1 if spread was 9+.

Illinois won three of last four games with Nebraska but lost two of three visits here, in series where host is 5-1. Illini beat Maryland with its top scorer Rice hurt (hand); they're 0-3 in true road games, losing by 9-8-16 points. Big 14 home teams are 9-6 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Cornhuskers are 2-3 in last five home games, including loss to Incarnate Word- they've lost five of last nine games overall.

Arizona won its last seven games with Oregon State, winning last four in Corvallis by 9-11-10-5 points; Wildcats won first two conference games by 20-12 points- they're forcing turnovers 21.9% of time, are 2-1 on the road, with only loss at UNLV. Beavers are 2-2 vs top 100 teams; they force turnovers 24.8% of time, are vastly improved on defense. Pac-12 home teams are 12-4-1 vs spread, 5-2-1 if game had spread of 9+ points.

Stanford won four of last six games with USC; Cardinal's last two visits here were decided by basket each. Stanford lost in double OT at UCLA Thursday even though they made 15-31 from arc, a red flag; three of their last five games went OT. Trojans are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with win vs #86 New Mexico, an injury-riddled team. Pac-12 home teams are 6-1 vs spread in games with spread of six or less points.

Siena won three of last four games after 3-7 start; they're 3-5 in last eight games with Fairfield, but swept Stags by 8-2 points LY. Teams split last eight regular season meetings here. Siena had 19-0 lead over Niagara last game; they're shooting 54% inside arc in MAAC games. MAAC home favorites of 5+ points are 3-7 vs spread. Stags are 2-2 in league but 4-10 overall; they've lost last five games overall, scoring 59.8 ppg.

Murray State is 17-1 in last 18 games with Jacksonville State, but lost by a point in last visit here; Racers won first two OVC games by 9-16, both on road- they force turnovers 21.5% of time, make 39.3% from the arc. Gamecocks are 7-0 at home, 1-9 on road, with only win at #332 Alabama A&M. Six of JSU's nine losses are by double digits. OVC home dogs are 1-6 against the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Sunday's free selection: Illinois State Redbirds - 1 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: Portland -5½ Over LA Lakers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: California Bears/UCLA Bruins under 134