John Ryan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox -176
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they face Baltimore set to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 86-20 making 52.2 units since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more and is below average hitting team batting <=.265) against a good AL starting pitcher posting a season ERA <=4.20 + in the second half of the season. Baltimore is just 17-43 (-20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-27 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 0-14 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Boston is a stout 23-4 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is just 3-19 (-13.9 Units) against the money line as a dog of +150 or more this season. The bullpens of these two teams are near complete opposites with Boston posting a season ERA of 3.22 and home ERA of 3.23 while Baltimore sports a season ERA of 4.42 and a terrible 5.21 ERA in road games. Orioles just do not play well at Fenway – not many teams do in fact – and are just 6-25 since the start of 2006 and winless this season.
Take Boston.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -200
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they face Cincinnati set to start at 2:20 EST. There are a supporting cast of angles for this play. Note that Owings is just 8-22 (-14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Cubs are a solid 30-11 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. Low scoring game sets the stage for this play noting the Reds are just 19-33 (-13.0 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. Owings has not pitched well of late and has posted a horrid 9.00 ERA and a 1.937 WHIP. In 10 road starts he has posted a 6.46 ERA and a 1.748 WHIP. Harden ahs posted a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Owens is winless going 0-3 against the Cubs in his career while Harden is perfect at 3-0 in his career versus the Reds. Owings has a pretty darn good fastball, but he has trouble getting strike one with that pitch. He throws FB 69%, slider 22%, change 8%. He’ll use the change more at 13% to LH batters instead of the slider. He gets into trouble hanging that pitch, especially to LH hitters. Look for the Cubs hitters to work the count and get favorable counts that they can look for their pitch to drive.
Take the Cubs.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox -176
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they face Baltimore set to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 86-20 making 52.2 units since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more and is below average hitting team batting <=.265) against a good AL starting pitcher posting a season ERA <=4.20 + in the second half of the season. Baltimore is just 17-43 (-20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-27 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 0-14 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game this season. Boston is a stout 23-4 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is just 3-19 (-13.9 Units) against the money line as a dog of +150 or more this season. The bullpens of these two teams are near complete opposites with Boston posting a season ERA of 3.22 and home ERA of 3.23 while Baltimore sports a season ERA of 4.42 and a terrible 5.21 ERA in road games. Orioles just do not play well at Fenway – not many teams do in fact – and are just 6-25 since the start of 2006 and winless this season.
Take Boston.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs -200
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they face Cincinnati set to start at 2:20 EST. There are a supporting cast of angles for this play. Note that Owings is just 8-22 (-14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Cubs are a solid 30-11 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. Low scoring game sets the stage for this play noting the Reds are just 19-33 (-13.0 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. Owings has not pitched well of late and has posted a horrid 9.00 ERA and a 1.937 WHIP. In 10 road starts he has posted a 6.46 ERA and a 1.748 WHIP. Harden ahs posted a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Owens is winless going 0-3 against the Cubs in his career while Harden is perfect at 3-0 in his career versus the Reds. Owings has a pretty darn good fastball, but he has trouble getting strike one with that pitch. He throws FB 69%, slider 22%, change 8%. He’ll use the change more at 13% to LH batters instead of the slider. He gets into trouble hanging that pitch, especially to LH hitters. Look for the Cubs hitters to work the count and get favorable counts that they can look for their pitch to drive.
Take the Cubs.
Premier Cappers
Seattle and Cleveland Under 8.5 at –115 for 4 units
I believe we are getting a good spot for an Under today with both the first games going over with Cleveland getting the Over by them selves. The Pitching matchup today is Cliff Lee (6-9 3.17 ERA) vs. Vargas (3-3 3.82 ERA). We Cliff Lee that is 20-7-3 to the under in his last 30 starts on Sunday games. Vargas has never faced the Indians before and I believe that will help him today even though he has not started in 3 weeks. Lee has had very good success vs. the Mariners in the past with an ERA of under 3. Lee has had 9 quality starts out of his last 10 games. Seattle is 6-1 to the under on Sunday games their last 7. The Under is 10-2-1 against the AL Central their last 13 games overall. The Under is 39-16-2 in their last 57 games which is almost 70% rate. Now the Under for the Indians on Sundays are 45-11-3 in their last 59 games overall. I believe we are getting a good spot for a very low scoring game today in Seattle witch games at home only average 7.87 runs this year.
Seattle and Cleveland Under 8.5 at –115 for 4 units
I believe we are getting a good spot for an Under today with both the first games going over with Cleveland getting the Over by them selves. The Pitching matchup today is Cliff Lee (6-9 3.17 ERA) vs. Vargas (3-3 3.82 ERA). We Cliff Lee that is 20-7-3 to the under in his last 30 starts on Sunday games. Vargas has never faced the Indians before and I believe that will help him today even though he has not started in 3 weeks. Lee has had very good success vs. the Mariners in the past with an ERA of under 3. Lee has had 9 quality starts out of his last 10 games. Seattle is 6-1 to the under on Sunday games their last 7. The Under is 10-2-1 against the AL Central their last 13 games overall. The Under is 39-16-2 in their last 57 games which is almost 70% rate. Now the Under for the Indians on Sundays are 45-11-3 in their last 59 games overall. I believe we are getting a good spot for a very low scoring game today in Seattle witch games at home only average 7.87 runs this year.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Toronto +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.4)
Game: Oakland at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: Oakland at New York Yankees (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
Game: Baltimore at Boston (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 5 to win 6)
Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs +150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Toronto +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.4)
Game: Oakland at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: Oakland at New York Yankees (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
Game: Baltimore at Boston (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 5 to win 6)
Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs +150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play
15 Dime -- PHILLIES (Blanton) -1 1/2 runs over Cardinals (Wellemeyer)
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PHILLIES
NOTE: List only Blanton as Philadelphia's starting pitcher
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Right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68 ERA) has been the weak link in the Cardinals’ rotation this season.
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He is 2-4 with a 6.51 ERA in his last nine starts, and has one quality start in his last 10 outings. He gave up five runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings Tuesday against Houston, which was the third time in four starts he failed to go at least five innings.
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Wellemeyer has been brutal on the road, too, going 3-3 with a 6.14 ERA in nine games (eight starts).
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Phillies starter Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24), on the other hand, has been smoking hot. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his last 10 outings, and has allowed two runs and 13 hits in 21 2/3 innings in three starts this month.
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Blanton has won two career starts against St. Louis, giving up two runs and eight hits over 13 innings.
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Wellemeyer hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year, but he went 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in two games against the world champs in 2008.
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With Philadelphia having won 16 of its last 19 games, it’s hard to bet against the NL East leader. With Blanton opposing Wellemeyer on the mound, it’s almost impossible. Take the Phillies on the run line in this one.
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Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play
15 Dime -- PHILLIES (Blanton) -1 1/2 runs over Cardinals (Wellemeyer)
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PHILLIES
NOTE: List only Blanton as Philadelphia's starting pitcher
*
Right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68 ERA) has been the weak link in the Cardinals’ rotation this season.
*
He is 2-4 with a 6.51 ERA in his last nine starts, and has one quality start in his last 10 outings. He gave up five runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings Tuesday against Houston, which was the third time in four starts he failed to go at least five innings.
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Wellemeyer has been brutal on the road, too, going 3-3 with a 6.14 ERA in nine games (eight starts).
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Phillies starter Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24), on the other hand, has been smoking hot. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his last 10 outings, and has allowed two runs and 13 hits in 21 2/3 innings in three starts this month.
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Blanton has won two career starts against St. Louis, giving up two runs and eight hits over 13 innings.
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Wellemeyer hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year, but he went 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in two games against the world champs in 2008.
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With Philadelphia having won 16 of its last 19 games, it’s hard to bet against the NL East leader. With Blanton opposing Wellemeyer on the mound, it’s almost impossible. Take the Phillies on the run line in this one.
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