Sunday 07/19/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr Tips

MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS

The Minnesota Twins(47-44) are steadily closing in on the AL Central lead as they look to sweep the Texas Rangers tonight. Minnesota 12-5 away from the Metrodome since June 9th and won their last four road games. They will start Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.47 ERA) who is looking to avoid an AL-worst 10th defeat.In his last start,Liriano allowed six runs, three earned in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-4 defeat July 9 to the visiting New York Yankees but he will hope to benefit from his teammates recent hot hitting. Carlos Gomez is 9 for 15 (.600) with nine RBIs during a five-game hit streak while Like Gomez, Justin Morneau have three straight multihit performances for the Twins, who batted .300 while winning four of the last five.The Rangers (48-41) were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position in Saturday night's 4-1 defeat, and have fallen three games behind first-place Los Angeles in the AL West.Making his first start since July 4th, the rookie left-hander Derek Holland (3-5, 5.97) tries to end his season-long struggles in his first career appearance against the Twins.Holland who is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts this season is expected to remain in the rotation until the Rangers can acquire a replacement. These teams are featuring two starting pitchers who won"t be in the rotation long. As hot as the Twins bats are, they probaly could reach this total by themselves.

TAKE OVER 10 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees Jul 19, 2009 2:05PM

PICK: Detroit Tigers

REASON FOR PICK: Edwin Jackson never developed out in LA (2003-05) and then in his second year with the Rays in 2007, struggled through a 5-15 (5.76 ERA) season in which the Rays went 8-23 in his starts. However, 2008 was a breakout season for the Rays (who were AL champs) and Jackson won 14 games. He's been even better for the Tigers in 2009 (made All Star team), going 7-4 with a 2.32 ERA in 18 starts (121.2 IP and 94 hits allowed / 97-35 K-W ratio). Jackson's record deserves to be much better, as he's allowed three ERs or less in 16 of his 18 starts in 2009, including his last 10. However, his 3.55 run support average ranks among the worst in the majors. The same can't be said for his mound opponent in this game, Joba Chamberlain. He's in his first full season as a starter but has struggled with high walk rates and high pitch counts. Consider this. Chamberlain has made nine home starts in 2009, allowing 48 hits and 25 walks over 42 innings with a 5.36 ERA. He's 0-2 but the Yankees have won all SEVEN of his no decisions. Chamberlain hasn't pitched well but the Yankee bats keep covering it up.
I'm taking the price with Jackson and the Tigers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Play: New York Yankees

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Yankees as they host the Detroit Tigers set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-26 making 33.2 units since 2003. Play against AL road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season facing an opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. Detroit is just 22-35 (-19.0 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons; 20-45 (-21.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Detroit start Jackson ranks third in the AL with a 2.52 ERA, but the problem for this game is that Detroit has a very weak and inconsistent offense. They are batting just 246 and scoring 4.1 RPG in road games and just 255 with a 314 OBP against RH starters. Yankees offense is strong scoring 5.7 RPG with 80 home runs in home games. They have also hit 90 of their 133 total home runs against RH starters. Chamberlain has not been at his best recently, but the bullpen is strong and will carry the load if needed. Based on the Ai S projections Jackson is going to have a rough day. He has allowed a 407 BA (11 for 27) to Jeter and 368 (7 for 19 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs) to A-Rod. When Jackson falls behind in the count he is very ordinary. Hitters are batting 323 on his fastball and you can bet the Yankees will work to get a fastball count early in this game.

Take the Yankees.

 

[JDizzle311]

i feel like timlin and rivers are good buys today....i can see chris jordan rebounding as well.

anyone interested?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jake Timlin

Go with the Yankees minus a cheaper than expect price tag.

No doubt tough not to back the Yankees today as they go for the sweep minus low price tag. Paving the way for the sweep will be Chamberlain who will look for his first home win of the season and thanks to New York winning 23 of the last 32 series meeting in New York the righty will get the win.


Meanwhile, for the Tigers they counter with Jackson who was solid in his only start this year against the Yankees throwing six scoreless innings only to see his team loss 11-0 after Tigers bull pen fell apart.


Well look for another close game early today as I expect for weight of the Yankees offense to get to Jackson and the Tigers bullpen late paving the way to an easy win.


2♦ New York Yankees

(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

 

[mp5070]

CPAW or anyone,

Will you get Vic Monte?

Thanx in advance

 

[LocksRus]

As I said yesterday, Rivers is definitely worth a look with a 75,000 Underdog. He is usually great at isolating underdogs.

 

[JDizzle311]

Al DeMarco also has a 5dime total of the month....

if someone picks up Rivers, I'll grab Chris Jordan...cork? ironhorse?

 

[PDBLING]

Guys ill pick up matt rivers. Give me a sec

 

[mp5070]

Any news on Vic Monte

 

[STRIKEKING]

GMC: Sea/Cleve OVER 8.5
Balt/Cws Over 9.5
Detroit +125
KC +135

Anyone know how these guys are in baseball????

 

[PDBLING]

Ill post seabass 2; anyone have root

 

[LocksRus]

Matt Rivers

Matt Rivers

75,000* DOG OF THE DAY Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:



1. 75,000♦ Pirates

2. 50,000♦ Royals

Would you mind posting the write-up?

 

[bbrett3]

Any Mighty Quinn? Thanks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics Jul 19, 2009 4:05PM

PICK: under

REASON FOR PICK: If this o/u line had gone to nine across the board, which I originally thought it had a chance of doing, I would have used this as one of my guaranteed/premium selections. As it is, with most shops offering a line of 8.5, it's now a strong opinion.

Lackey is better than his numbers indicate and if he stays healthy should have a strong second half. Note that he closed out the first half by limiting the Yankees to two runs through seven complete innings.

It's also worth noting that Lackey is 14-4 in 26 starts vs. Oakland. During that stretch, he has an outstanding 2.80 ERA and 1.168 WHIP. Not surprisingly 16 of those 26 games, including nine of the last 11, stayed below the total.

Anderson goes for the A's and he went into the break with a superb 0.49 ERA (0.873 WHIP) over his last three starts, striking out more than one per inning during that stretch. That includes a complete game 2-hit shutout at Fenway Park.

While the A's gave up a whopping 11 runs yesterday, they've seen the 'under' go a profitable 25-10 the last 35 times that they allowed double-digits in their previous game.

Consider the Under

 

[JDizzle311]

so jordan and timlin are against each other....who to trust?

 

[roundrobin11]

so jordan and timlin are against each other....who to trust?

Not saying timlin is better, but Colorado wins this game. No doubt

 

[JDizzle311]

yea....I would agree with that, but I will say Latos first start could go one of two ways....

Dominant or Horrendous

Why isn't anyone on the STL Run Line? shocking....Petit has been god-awful

 

[roundrobin11]

yea....I would agree with that, but I will say Latos first start could go one of two ways....

Dominant or Horrendous

Why isn't anyone on the STL Run Line? shocking....Petit has been god-awful

I am, I went big on STL RL and also ATL RL

This is one of my bigger days in a while. Im on a total of 12 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Professional Gambler Newsletter R.J. Miller

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Sunday, July 19, 2009...We have 5 MLB plays so far today, emailed earlier to subscribers to Professional Gambler Newsletter. Here's a comp copy of one of today's plays, as published in today's Professional Gambler Newsletter....

REDSOX +103 at Bluejays (Lester-Halladay)