Sunday 07/19/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hentai Sports

Game : Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians (MLB) 01:05pm EST

Prediction : Seattle Mariners ML / Bedard must start.

Analysis : The Mariners will come away with an all important series victory if they can win on Sunday. They lost game one of this series on Thursday 4 to 1 but have bounced back in games two and three with victories and should get a win today behind Erik Bedard. Seattle is 48-43 W/L on the season while Cleveland has struggled with a record of 36-56 W/L on the year. Seattle is 20-11 W/L (+8.2) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 to 46 percent and Cleveland is 19-30 W/L (-11.8) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. A check of the database shows the Mariners are 5-0 W/L their last 5 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 10-3 W/L their last 13 as a favorite in this price range overall, 6-1 W/L in Bedard’s last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 W/L his last 5 road starts. The news is not that good for Indians supporters because they are 4-11 W/L their last 15 at home, 7-19 W/L versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 3-10 W/L their last 13 as an underdog and 0-7 W/L their last 7 when Laffey gets the start and is installed as an underdog. Bedard is 5-2 W/L on the season with an ERA of 2.63 including a perfect 3-0 W/L on the road with an ERA of 2.72. We will lay the short price here with the visitor as the Mariners claim a series win over the host Cleveland Indians on Sunday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(979) MINNESOTA TWINS
(980) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "(979) MINNESOTA TWINS"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
4 straight comp play winners, 60-47-4 overall comp play run the 111 days.

We are backing the Braves on the RUN LINE this Sunday as they take on the hobbling Mets once again.

Seems the only time the Mets have a chance to win these days is when Johan Santana starts, and that start happened to come yesterday in New York's 5-1 win.

Expect a similar final today, but expect it to be Atlanta with the 5-spot. Mets starter Fernando Nieve has hit a major bump in the road, as he is now 0-3 the last 3 starts he has made, and his ERA stands at 5.40.

His counterpart Javier Vazquez continues to be solid, splitting his last his last 3 starts while keeping his ERA below 2 over his last 20 frames of work.

The last 16 Mets losses have all come by 2 runs or more, so to think this game is going to end in a one run decision just isn't reality.

RUN LINE play on Atlanta to conclude this 4-game set with the easy win.
2♦ ATLANTA -1 1/2 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

NYY (-110) vs DET

Analysis: Member Play: After stumbling into the All-Star break, the New York Yankees have looked rejuvenated in winning their first two games since the Midsummer Classic. Joba Chamberlain hopes to provide the next solid pitching performance for the Yankees, who try to sweep the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers for the first time in four years Sunday. Chamberlain is likely also a bit frustrated that he?s still seeking his first win at the new Yankee Stadium. After nine home starts, he is 0-2 with a 5.36 ERA. He had little trouble pitching at Detroit on April 29, allowing one run and three hits with six strikeouts in seven innings of an 8-6 win. Edwin Jackson?s ERA - the third-best in the AL - helped him earn his first All-Star selection, but his 3.55 run support average - one of the worst in the majors - has prevented him from being among the league leaders in wins. The Tigers have really struggled to score away from Detroit lately, plating three runs or fewer in 14 of their last 19 road games. They?ve won just six of those contests. Look for the YANKS to improve to 5-2 (+2.3 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Delaney

I am on an 11-5 run with complimentary releases after scoring with the Under in the Mets/Braves contest last night.

1♦ WHITE SOX (Action)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Angels -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports
Sunday's free selection:
New York Mets + 220

Mike Wynn
Bonus Play: MLB
Tampa Bay w/Garza -145 over Kansas City

Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:
TEXAS (Holland) +105 over Minnesota

Totals4U
Sunday's free selection:
Minnesota/Texas over 10 1/2

Computer Sports
SUNDAY FREE WINNER!!
TEXAS+110

Nevada Sharpshooter
Free Selection
Tigers +125 over Yankees MLB

Dr. Vegas
FREE Sunday Selection
Cleveland +110 over Seattle

TV Hotline
Free Sunday MLB Pick
Minnesota -120 over Texas

High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Sunday:
Colorado Rockies - 145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

G-Man on a 5-1 comp play run the last 6 days, and a 12-5 run the last 17 days for free.


For Sunday, have to like the Mariners to handle the stuggling Indians once again.


Seattle has won the last pair of this long four game weekend series, as they have now won 5 of their last 7 overall. The Mariners are also on a money-making 20-6 roll their last 26 when installed as the favorite.


Cleveland is another story altogether, as this team has talent, but it certainly appears they have no heart, as the Indians have dropped 20 of their last 27 overall.


Aaron Laffey has been hit hard the last 3 times he has climbed to the mound, as the southpaw has allowed 18 hits in his last 15-plus innings of work, and his ERA stands at 6.32.


That won't cut it against Erik Bedard who may only own a 5-2 mark this year, but has kept his ERA at a lowly 2.63.


G-Man rolling strong with the M's over the Tribe this afternoon.

4♦ SEATTLE

(on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cajun Sports

MLB 2* Complimentary Selection- Sunday

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians

Graded Selection: 2* Seattle Mariners -130

The Mariners will come away with an all important series victory if they can win on Sunday. They lost game one of this series on Thursday 4 to 1 but have bounced back in games two and three with victories and should get a win today behind Erik Bedard. Seattle is 48-43 W/L on the season while Cleveland has struggled with a record of 36-56 W/L on the year. Seattle is 20-11 W/L (+8.2) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 38 to 46 percent and Cleveland is 19-30 W/L (-11.8) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. A check of the database shows the Mariners are 5-0 W/L their last 5 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 10-3 W/L their last 13 as a favorite in this price range overall, 6-1 W/L in Bedard’s last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record and 4-1 W/L his last 5 road starts. The news is not that good for Indians supporters because they are 4-11 W/L their last 15 at home, 7-19 W/L versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 3-10 W/L their last 13 as an underdog and 0-7 W/L their last 7 when Laffey gets the start and is installed as an underdog. Bedard is 5-2 W/L on the season with an ERA of 2.63 including a perfect 3-0 W/L on the road with an ERA of 2.72. We will lay the short price here with the visitor as the Mariners claim a series win over the host Cleveland Indians on Sunday afternoon.

Graded Selection: 2* Seattle Mariners 3 Cleveland Indians 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

Philadelphia - over Florida

J.A. Happ has now made five straight quality starts and he will be tough to phase out of the rotation even with the Pedro Martinez signing. Happ has kept his walks under control with just 32 in 87 innings of work and although his 6-0 record may be a bit misleading it is warranted with his 2.90 ERA and solid run support. Like the Phillies as a team, Happ has been at his best on the road with a 1.81 ERA and a minuscule 0.90 WHIP. Andrew Miller has had an up-and-down season and he has not posted the strikeout numbers expected from such a highly regarded prospect. Miller has just 55 strikeouts in 74 innings and he has averaged barely over five innings per start.

Look for the Phillies to continue to dominate the Marlins today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Tampa Bay at Kansas City

Under 9.5

Matt Garza is starting for the Rays and has good stuff. Tampa has 9 unders and 3 overs in their last 12 on the road while Kansas City has 14 unders, 5 overs and 2 pushes in their last 21 overall.

Play the under on Sunday afternoon in this matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Today's Bonus Play is from San Diego as I go out and grab the plus-money Padres hosting the Rockies.


Interesting move here by the Padres, going with a rookie pitcher today that started this season in Single-A. I like the move and I'm taking the plus-money with the kid and playing San Diego.


The Padres got the 3-1 victory Saturday night and that momentum, added with the excitement of seeing right-hander Mat Latos make his major league debut will carry this team to the win. A lot has been written and said about Latos and he gets his chance in the spotlight here against the Rockies and veteran hurler Jason Marquis (11-6, 3.65 ERA).


Latos was an 11th round pick in 2006 and between Double-A San Antonio and Single-A Fort Wayne he combined to go 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA. In San Antonio he was 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA. Latos is a big boy at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds and he is going to get his shot. Expect him to be nervous early and when he gets through a nervous first couple innings, he'll settle in and you'll see him control the game for about six innings before handing it over to the bullpen.


Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine games as a road favorite and they are going to be off when they see the big, young right-hander coming at them.


I love this situation for the Padres. Grab the plus-money and play San Diego.

2? SAN DIEGO

 

[brady1983]

Anybody wanna split Demarco?

Posted in the chatter thread. See, not that hard.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Anybody wanna split Demarco?

Posted in the chatter thread. See, not that hard.

Ty.:toast:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals

The Rays are 0-7 when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start. The Royals are 17-10 as a 140+ dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead. The Royals are worth an investment at this price. Good luck - MTi Sports.

Play on: Kansas City

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Detroit starter Edwin Jackson has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 straight games. Detroit is 11-3 their last 14 Sunday games. The Tigers are 6-2 in Game 3 of a series and they are 15-7 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. New York starter Joba Chamberlain has allowed 16 runs in his last 13.1 innings of work. Chamberlain has pitched past the sixth inning just once in his last 5 starts.

PLAY ON DETROIT + (Jackson vs. Chamberlain)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Winner Line-Phillies
OTM-UNDER Atlanta
Wise Guys-Dodgers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy The Moose

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: Under

The Giants have played the under in 4 of their last 5 games overall. Their last 4 road games have played under the total. In their last 24 road games vs. a left-handed starter the under is a profitable 17-5-2. The under is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts overall as well as his last 5 road starts. The under is 23-8-2 in Pittsburgh's last 33 overall. The Pirates have played the under in 9 of their last 10 home games. In their last 11 games as a home dog the under is 10-1. The under is 4-1 in Duke's last 5 starts. In his last 7 vs. a team with a winning record the under is 6-1.

Play the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Cannon

I’m going to take a shot with the Royals as the home dog over the Rays.


Kansas City obviously isn’t in the same class as the Rays, but I like the job Luke Hochevar has done for the Royals recently.


The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA in his last four starts.


That’s better than what the Rays Matt Garza has done recently and in his career against Kansas City.


Garza is 1-2 with a 4.42 ERA in his last three starts and is at 6-7 on the year. The right-hander is 0-4 with a 4.02 ERA in five lifetime games against the Royals.


I don’t care who you are, if you can’t beat the Royals at least one time in your career over five starts that’s pretty pathetic.


Take the Royals as they grab the home win.

2♦ KANSAS CITY

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

For today's Complimentary Play, we're looking at the Colorado/San Diego match up...


Big-time mismatch in more ways than one today at Petco, as the Rockies look to take the series in today's finale. Couldn't ask for a better match up, as the Rockies stud sinkerballer, Jason Marquis, gets matched up against a soft-hitting Padres club. Friars are batting just .216 against righties at Petco on the season, and I don't see much room for improvement against Marquis in this one! You remember his last start against the Padres, don't you? He tossed 8 scoreless innings, allowing 6 hits along the way in an excellent effort May 29th!


What's worse is Marquis is being opposed by youngster Matt Latos, who makes his Major League debut in this contest. Word out of Double-A San Antonio is Latos has the stuff, but as is the case with most young hurlers, you simply do not know if that's going to translate at the next level. Also, the fact he has to face a potent Rockies lineup this afternoon is no small task, especially considering they've crushed righties of late, batting .289 against them over their last 10 games!


Finally, besides the tremendous pitching mismatch, and the obvious edge at the plate for the Rockies, there's a couple trends to consider: A. Colorado has owned San Diego, going 9-4 over their last 13 meetings. B. The Rockies have been money on the road of late, going 15-5 over their last 20 roadies. And C. Padres have been a terrible bet following a win, going just 2-12 in their last 14 games following a W. In the end, the play here rests squarely on the Rockies!


Take Colorado behind Marquis over San Diego and Latos in this MLB match up.

2♦ COLORADO